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Koshi
Belgium38797 Posts
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
Vivax (1) - DreadReturn GlowingBear (2) - Damdred, Palmar, Eden1892 (2)[/blue - Yamato77, Ritoky, Damdred (1) - GlowingBear, DreadReturn (7) - Vivax, Koshi, HolyFlare, Onegu, ObiWanShinobi, Eden1892, Rsoultin, here's my analysis on the day 1 vote damdred. on average when a town is lynched on day 1, 52.4% of the mafia votes on the wagon. over half of the people who voted to lynch DR on day 1 have been flipped and every single one of them has flipped blue or town. there is likely no way that there isn't a mafia on the DR train, if not both. this means that there is guaranteed 1 mafia between koshi, vivax, and obi, with the potential of 2 mafia there. let us now assume that it is the case where 1 is inside the vote and the other is outside the vote: the unflipped/nonclaimed players outside the vote are ritoky (conf town), yamato, and damdred. damdred literally tried to lynch mafia all game and lynched mafia, so that leaves me with yamato. so it is either 2 of koshi, vivax, and obi. or 1 of koshi, viviax, obi + yamato. those are the only 2 worlds that exist from the day 1 vote count. if i bring in to account the day 2 vote count, let us see what it adds to spice up my life. On April 12 2015 12:36 Hapahauli wrote: Let me count the votes: Koshi (1) - Koshi Vivax (1) - Yamato77 Damdred (0) - Eden (0) - Palmar (0) - GlowingBear (3) - Palmar, Damdred, ObiWanShinobi, Ritoky (1) - Sicklucker Yamato77 (2) - Vivax, ritoky ObiWanShinobi (2) - Eden, GlowingBear [blue] until deadline. Currently GlowingBear is set to be lynched. dunno if this is the perfect vote count, but what can we know from it; our potential mafia coming into this vote are yamato, koshi, obi, and vivax. no need to color people at this point, just look at those 4 names. obi lynches mafia, albeit somewhat incidentally it seems. his town cred is low apparently going into this, so maybe he puts a vote on his partner to try and buy some cred going forward. regardless he gets + town points for lynching mafia out of this group. koshi self votes, w/e. vivax makes a case on yamato and yamato is the leading candidate for the majority of the day until the wagon disperses for reasons i never bothered to read. this makes a vivax + yamato world less likely. yamato plants a stray vote on vivax making the world that was formerly less likely more likely, and back to meh...but i still think it is least likely. since on contentious and spread out votes like this (often times an easy way to catch mafia on day 1s of games) a common tactic is to plop a stray vote on your teammate that gets no traction. essentially day 2 doesn't do much to modify the day 1 vote outside of make obi a little less likely mafia, and kinda eliminate a yamato + vivax team although not really. if there's a way to 100% clear yamato we can PoE win the game imo. otherwise it is best to think about if we want to live in the world of 2 within koshi, vivax, and obi or if we want to lynch yamato cuz if there is 1 inside of koshi, vivax, and obi then yamato is 100% the partner. | ||
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
Vivax (1) - DreadReturn GlowingBear (2) - Damdred, Palmar, Eden1892 (2) - Yamato77, Ritoky, Damdred (1) - GlowingBear, DreadReturn (7) - Vivax, Koshi, HolyFlare, Onegu, ObiWanShinobi, Eden1892, Rsoultin, EBWOP fixed coloring from above that got fucked up | ||
Damdred
15669 Posts
Vivax (1) - Yamato77, GlowingBear, Eden GlowingBear (3) - Palmar, Damdred, ObiWanShinobi, Ritoky (1) - Sicklucker Yamato77 (2) - Vivax, ritoky ObiWanShinobi This is what the vote looks like before Eden and GB move onto obi. Does it change anything? Also your reads aren't that concrete at all i'm not sure if you actually called anyone scum in there besides hypotheticals | ||
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
i suggest people look into reasons why koshi, vivax, and obi voted on DR day 1 and why yamato decided to bail. maybe it is because i didn't read day 2 in the slightest, but the day 1 vote and lynch seems way more indicative than day 2 did. every1 should probably determine a firm stance on yamato's alignment because unless you think he is lock town we should probably lynch him, and then consider the most likely worlds of 2 amongst koshi, vivax, and obi. that is what i will be considering while i am away and when i come back, i hope the thread does the same. | ||
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On April 14 2015 07:43 Damdred wrote: Koshi (1) - Koshi Vivax (1) - Yamato77, GlowingBear, Eden GlowingBear (3) - Palmar, Damdred, ObiWanShinobi, Ritoky (1) - Sicklucker Yamato77 (2) - Vivax, ritoky ObiWanShinobi This is what the vote looks like before Eden and GB move onto obi. Does it change anything? Also your reads aren't that concrete at all i'm not sure if you actually called anyone scum in there besides hypotheticals bleh, i dunno...why wasn't this anywhere to be found in the thread/voting thread i will consider it when i come back soon. as of now i am in the world of yamato + 1 rather than 2 among the 3 and think we should probably lynch yamato. i kinda tried to look for reasons as to why the lynch on yamato dispersed and couldn't find a good one. i recognized that this happens to me a lot when i am mafia. there is a lynch that really should go on me and for no good reason i get it to stall out and delay another day. it just seems really similar to what i did in guardians and multiple other games, how the lynch on me just kept magically evaporating and landing on others for unexplained reasons. for the +1....my gut tells me obi because he seemed to have stumbled into lynching his partner and he is really pushing the low hanging fruit lynch on me. but that isn't informed by a filter dive yet. hopefully i can do that tonight. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
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Damdred
15669 Posts
What do you make of everything ritoky is saying here Yamato? | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
specifics are difficult to nail down | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
he's not necessarily looking at filters/analyzing motivation, he seemingly just posits many different alternatives and picks the "most likely" idk, it doesn't help me much. | ||
Damdred
15669 Posts
Yamato whenever you can really want to know where your heads at on who is scum | ||
ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
Cool story, bro. | ||
ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
On April 14 2015 10:14 Damdred wrote: I'm still thinking that rit is scum. Not much concrete reads and not really making any hard calls. Yamato whenever you can really want to know where your heads at on who is scum I'm in agreement with the ritoky read: no conclusions in those giant walls. His closest thing to a scumread is me, because I "incidentally lynched my partner" and doesn't even have anything to back it up. His only other possible lynch is yamato and I don't understand his reasoning behind it. He says he wants to lynch yamato but he doesn't really back it up with anything aside from the fact that he just wants to get him out of the way for whatever reason. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
I will endeavor to find his partner in the mean time. | ||
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
so what, i don't have firm scum reads; i haven't read nearly half of the game. keep on pushing that low hanging fruit. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
On April 14 2015 12:05 ritoky wrote: w/e if you can't see a town when it slaps you in the face. that is on you guys. same as in XXX, i was so blatantly town it hurt and that lynch was one of the worst travesties in history. so what, i don't have firm scum reads; i haven't read nearly half of the game. keep on pushing that low hanging fruit. I'm sorry if you're town but you don't really seem that townie since N1 really. | ||
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
i have no motivation to try and solve a game in which i do every town tell, am so utterly town it is painful for myself, and get 100% scum read by every single person in the game for activity reasons and because it is an easy lynch. literal 0 people are defending me, what you think that means? are you guys seriously this dense? | ||
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On April 14 2015 12:08 yamato77 wrote: I'm sorry if you're town but you don't really seem that townie since N1 really. i have less that 10 posts since n1 | ||
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
wait why am i talking to you, you're probably mafia. | ||
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On April 14 2015 01:23 yamato77 wrote: Solving the Game? Ritoky Ritoky REALLY doesn't want to lynch GB This post in particular is strange. Why would ritoky feel the need to make a post like this when I'm one of his top town reads? Also, how does he have GB as mafia (in this post) with his first two posts being what they are (a defense of GB)? Strange stuff. After this post he apparently sheeps me, for whatever reason, even though he seems quite unsure about himself. And then... he sheeps me some more. But N1 he has a couple townie-ish posts like this one: D2, though, he whiffs pretty hard with these two posts: (emphasis mine) How did this switch happen exactly? >____> But his last post was this: His GB read was weird overall (especially D1) and I don't like his about-face on me but it's REALLY hard to overlook some of the genuine stuff in his filter and especially his IDGAF attitude on D1/N1 where he was all badass with his GIF game. Man, fuck. I dunno anymore. this is what you posted about me. you are calling me mafia for not concluding anything, then look at your conclusion. nuff said | ||
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