EPTNewbie Student Mafia VI - Page 67
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Tronak
Spain217 Posts
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
KSc, I didn't think Snarfs was mafia. All I said was his play was different. Not different to his town play. He has certainly been less clear than usual but that doesn't make him mafia. And no there was no time for another wagon on Tronak. There were two minutes remaining with only about four or five of us posting. Jumping off at that point would have ended up lynching Snarfs. As for why scum would be on Wave and not Snarfs if Snarfs is town, well Wave was town. Pushing one town lynch over another seems a 50/50 split. There are three scum there could quite likely be two on the Snarfs voting. I particularly think Node is suspicious given he votes Snarfs for no reason and then disappears. We'll have to see what he says when he returns. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On February 26 2015 08:58 Probulous wrote: Too late for a switch? On February 26 2015 08:58 Probulous wrote: Damn you Tronak. We got scum on this wagon people. I read this as town realizing too late that it's a lynch between two town. If you're mafia, why do you even bother saying anything at all? Kelsier wrote: plus the reason he scum read snarf was because as town he was "insightful and thinks carefully about his post" but now he thinks snarf is town because he is "active and willing to be wrong" I also think town is more likely to contradict themselves. Especially in a scenario where he probably could have just jumped on my lynch given the aforementioned scumread. | ||
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
On February 27 2015 06:31 Snarfs wrote: Kelsier: I read this as town realizing too late that it's a lynch between two town. If you're mafia, why do you even bother saying anything at all? I also think town is more likely to contradict themselves. Especially in a scenario where he probably could have just jumped on my lynch given the aforementioned scumread. woo woo chill out bro let him answer for himself | ||
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
On February 27 2015 06:29 Probulous wrote: Skimmed so far. KSc, I didn't think Snarfs was mafia. All I said was his play was different. Not different to his town play. He has certainly been less clear than usual but that doesn't make him mafia. And no there was no time for another wagon on Tronak. There were two minutes remaining with only about four or five of us posting. Jumping off at that point would have ended up lynching Snarfs. As for why scum would be on Wave and not Snarfs if Snarfs is town, well Wave was town. Pushing one town lynch over another seems a 50/50 split. There are three scum there could quite likely be two on the Snarfs voting. I particularly think Node is suspicious given he votes Snarfs for no reason and then disappears. We'll have to see what he says when he returns. but if you're town read of him is based on him being insightful and careful with his posting, how does him being active and willing to be wrong make him town? | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On February 26 2015 22:39 Tronak wrote: Probolous you admitted your self, that you were the one pushing Wave's wagon first. And your vote was indeed what made me think "ok i can save Snarfs + someone else is pushing Eden's case (which at this point I was already considering seriously)". I will explain my line of arguments that drived me to vote for Wave further (having lunch while I read you, and i'll need some quotes). Meanwhile and to complete your analysis, that I just read and find very interesting and better that your "oh look shoot this scum newbie"), why don't you refresh me why did you vote Wave? aren't you as suspicious as me? I mean you look more suspicious to me at this point (before diving in you filter). I wanted to shoot you because when pushed your reason for voting for Wave was to keep Snarfs around to "teach' you. Call it lynch excitement, it sounded like scum trying to come up with a reason to vote (one way or the other). My reasons for voting Wave were quite simple. 1) Eden was shouting about his case on Wave so I took a look, it seemed OK so I looked closer at Wave's posting. 2) I really don't like blatant sheeping as I feel it abdicates responsibility for scum-hunting. I called Wave out on it. 3) Eden explained that sheeping your town reads is now pretty normal but that you would be pressed on them, so I checked Wave's filter for who he thought was town and why. He basically called yamato town in like his third post and that was it. Ok fine, he has a gut feel for yamato but Node? His reasoning made no sense. So I pushed him on it. 4) Obviously he AFK'd for reasons but it looked suspicious as hell to me. Especially when he had been constantly saying he would return to the thread to provide something but never did. Like I said, clearly I was wrong but I thought I was on to something. The lynches at the time were Snarfs and Artanis who I didn't want to lynch and Wave looked really dodge for disappearing. | ||
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Tronak
Spain217 Posts
On February 27 2015 06:31 Snarfs wrote: Kelsier: I read this as town realizing too late that it's a lynch between two town. If you're mafia, why do you even bother saying anything at all? I also think town is more likely to contradict themselves. Especially in a scenario where he probably could have just jumped on my lynch given the aforementioned scumread. On February 26 2015 08:58 Probulous wrote: Too late for a switch? Who would ask this? you switch or not switch, but don't waste your supposed few time in asking if its too late. It was indeed too late to wagon on me, but it wasn't too late maybe for him to abandon his vote on Wave and shoot me. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On February 27 2015 06:46 KelsierSC wrote: but if you're town read of him is based on him being insightful and careful with his posting, how does him being active and willing to be wrong make him town? OK you're misunderstanding what I was originally saying. I was not calling him town in that first post, I just said his posting style when we played years ago was one of careful consideration. It's different this game but that doesn't make him mafia, or town. I thought that was clear when I posted this later | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On February 27 2015 06:48 Tronak wrote: Who would ask this? you switch or not switch, but don't waste your supposed few time in asking if its too late. It was indeed too late to wagon on me, but it wasn't too late maybe for him to abandon his vote on Wave and shoot me. Trust me I would have.I was thinking and typing at the same time. I thought there might be an option to switch but realised just trying to convince people you were scrum would take too long. | ||
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Tronak
Spain217 Posts
On February 27 2015 06:53 Probulous wrote: Trust me I would have.I was thinking and typing at the same time. I thought there might be an option to switch but realised just trying to convince people you were scrum would take too long. Ok but again, it could take too long but you were already convinced at this point, that I was mafia and Wave was innocent and about to lynched. If you are town and being at this point, why the hell you wouldnt ##unvote Wave ##vote tronak? | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On February 27 2015 00:28 Damdred wrote: [/green][/green][/green]+ Show Spoiler + On February 26 2015 08:58 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count WaveofShadow (7): Eden1892, Probulous, Damdred, _Tormented_, Tronak, snarfs, The Shining Snarfs (5): Node, Yamato77, WaveofShadow, Artanis[Xp], KelsierSC KelsierSC (1): sicklucker Not Voting (0): Currently, WaveofShadow is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. Had a long day at work figured before I went into anything else I would look at the final vote count and post some thoughts. The first vote is the official vote count where we ended with the 100% information that we have from the flip. From this vote it is highly probable that both Eden and Yamato are both town (a part from my earlier reads) which makes the vote look like this + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2015 08:58 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count WaveofShadow (7): Eden1892, Probulous, Damdred, _Tormented_, Tronak, snarfs, The Shining Snarfs (5): Node, Yamato77, WaveofShadow, Artanis[Xp], KelsierSC KelsierSC (1): sicklucker Not Voting (0): Currently, WaveofShadow is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. Personal Reads Incoming: I think that the vote was between two towns at this junction, Snarf left a reads post that convinced me even if it did not convince anyone else. There was not that much movement in the wagons at the time besides consolidation. Snarf voted to save himself which isn't alignment indicative granted. I still think the legacy post sways me a bit its obvious he was the lynch up to that point and wave had 0 momentum up to the final hour so no reason for mafia to give us any sort of information going into it. I also think that there is a good possibility that Kel is town in this scenario. He looked really good heading into the eod and put in a ton of work questioning people and pressuring people at points. + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2015 08:58 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count WaveofShadow (7): Eden1892, Probulous, Damdred, _Tormented_, Tronak, snarfs, The Shining Snarfs (5): Node, Yamato77, WaveofShadow, Artanis[Xp], KelsierSC KelsierSC (1): sicklucker Not Voting (0): Currently, WaveofShadow is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. Shining had a huge let down day one, but his somewhat catchup posts were ok. I'm leaning town on him but I don't think i'm ready to give him a full force town read but I think its more likely between two towns that a town would hammer in that situation. SL has a high chance of being mafia with how his voting went I believe. He was here at EoD was useless and used his vote by throwing it away instead of helping the lynch. His vote by itself stands out pretty highly to me + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2015 08:58 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count WaveofShadow (7): Eden1892, Probulous, Damdred, _Tormented_, Tronak, snarfs, The Shining Snarfs (5): Node, Yamato77, WaveofShadow, Artanis[Xp], KelsierSC KelsierSC (1): sicklucker Not Voting (0): Currently, WaveofShadow is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. This leaves me with Tormented, Tronak, Node, Artanis and Probulous Tormented I think is townish at this point, his post on snarfs goes against the grain at that point and his followup explanation was pretty good. His posts at EoD weren't bad either to me. Probulous has been a bit useless besides when hes talking about me granted, wave pointed this out but I think that what analysis he did do to me and his post during the night on the votes was pretty town so he is in a town pile. + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2015 08:58 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count WaveofShadow (7): Eden1892, Probulous, Damdred, _Tormented_, Tronak, snarfs, The Shining Snarfs (5): Node, Yamato77, WaveofShadow, Artanis[Xp], KelsierSC KelsierSC (1): sicklucker Not Voting (0): Currently, WaveofShadow is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. This leaves me with a pool of Artanis, Tronak and Node. Tronak had some decent posts during the night, hes more null for me currently. But I think some posts look towny Artanis has a really good shot at being scum, all day he thought that Yamato looked really bad and scummy but he decided to vote with his scum read and then after he voted he decided that Yamatos filter looked decent. He was somewhat useless today just focusing on tormented and yamato for the general portion of the day before deciding to vote with said scum read and suddenly reversing the read even when Yamato had been playing the same way the whole game. Node is probably the last scum, h was extremely useless all day. He was extremely defensive whenever he was confronted with not doing things in the thread. AFK'd his vote without any sort of followup or any new information taken into account whenever he was here, and just has decided to do shit all and be useless. + Show Spoiler + On February 26 2015 08:58 Blazinghand wrote: Vote Count WaveofShadow (7): Eden1892, Probulous, [gren]Damdred, _Tormented_, Tronak, snarfs, The Shining Snarfs (5): Node, Yamato77, WaveofShadow, Artanis[Xp], KelsierSC KelsierSC (1): sicklucker Not Voting (0): Currently, WaveofShadow is set to be lynched. Day 1 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain. This is the final visual representation of where my thoughts are currently. Any questions or want anything fleshed out more just ask and i'll talk more about it. Damn, this is how you do vote analysis. I take back my snarky bit from last night. I was convinced there was scum on that wagon and you were the strongest candidate in my mind. So if this is true, then I pushed a wagon which had no scum on it? I'd be down with a Node lynch if he doesn't contribute today. Will take a closer look at Artanis, I like his open style but pushing the newbie so hard all day on day 1 is an easy target for mafia. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On February 27 2015 06:58 Tronak wrote: Ok but again, it could take too long but you were already convinced at this point, that I was mafia and Wave was innocent and about to lynched. If you are town and being at this point, why the hell you wouldnt ##unvote Wave ##vote tronak? Where did I say that? Could have been a day 1 bus. | ||
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Tronak
Spain217 Posts
On February 27 2015 07:08 Probulous wrote: Where did I say that? Could have been a day 1 bus. Wtf you asked if there was time to switch? why would you ask if you were not thinking Wave was innocent? | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On February 27 2015 07:04 Damdred wrote: 2 minutes is plenty of time for shenanigans. Idk if we could have put totally realistic, especially in a bh game! The problem might not have been the logistics but convincing everyone to make a last minute switch based on one post which upon reflection could be bad town rather than scum. Despite Wave flipping town I would do the same thing if I was in the same position with the same information, switching would have caused all sorts of chaos and probably led to a Snarfs lynch which I was less sure about. | ||
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Tronak
Spain217 Posts
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On February 27 2015 07:11 Tronak wrote: Wtf you asked if there was time to switch? why would you ask if you were not thinking Wave was innocent? Because to me you had just basically scum-claimed. Much stronger case than my suspicions on Wave. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
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Tronak
Spain217 Posts
On February 27 2015 07:11 Probulous wrote: Despite Wave flipping town I would do the same thing if I was in the same position with the same information, switching would have caused all sorts of chaos and probably led to a Snarfs lynch which I was less sure about. Now you give a proper "towny" reason for first time. Not sure if this comes late to me though. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
Also yeah hi I'm here. Sorry I'm a bit drained from the last Newbie game still(losing when you catch both scum sucks) and this game already has as much content D1/N1 than almost that entire game. I was wrong on Wave vote and suspicion. Honestly makes me wonder which of my town reads I'm also wrong in(Damdred, Probulous). | ||
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