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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Just some thoughts on Majority Lynch!
I'm mostly talking about 13-man, 3-scum setups and 9-man, 2-scum setups.
Basics:
Majority Lynch requires over 50% of the players in the game to vote someone in order for the lynch to happen. For example, with 9 alive, you need 5 votes on someone to lynch them. If the vote leader has 4 or fewer votes, no lynch happens.
Plurality Lynch lynches whoever has the most votes, even if it's not a majority. So if 9 people are alive and the wagons are 4-3-2, the person with 4 votes on them gets lynched.
Thoughts:
For the most part, after D2, Plurality and Majority lynch are the same. During D1 and D2, it's possible for town to have a "Minority Plurality", where the lead wagon doesn't have a majority, and for scum to be unable to disrupt that. In a 10 vs 3 situation, town could concievably lynch scum with like a 6 or 5 vote wagon, if scum can't easily pile onto a counterwagon. Obviously this is leaving out the idea of scum bussing, but on its basics, plurality is definitely different from majority during D1 of 13p mafia.
If town mislynches twice in 13p, though, we end up at 6-3. At this point, if it were majority, town would need 5 votes to lynch. In plurality, however, town probably ALSO needs 5 votes to lynch. If town splits 4-2, scum can in theory pile onto the 2-vote wagon and win. In 4-3 (or any) LYLO/MYLO, of course, Town needs to vote all together with a majority.
What we see is, the more wiggle room town has in terms of mislynches, the more plurality diverges from majority. In 9p minis (7-2), if town mislynches once, we're at 5-2. In majority, town needs 4 to lynch. In plurality, town also "needs" 4 to lynch (Again, disregarding bussing) because with only 3 votes scum could push a counterwagon over the top with a badly placed vote or two from a townie.
I think, actually, the big impact of Majority is on counterwagons and side votes. People will take flak for not being on one of the two main wagons as the day goes on, and there will be fewer shenannigans, for better and for worse, during the early games.
Majority is probably best used in a smaller games, where plurality is a lot like majority in terms of punishing town for not voting together, or in Instant lynch games, which are hilarious and awesome.
What do you think?
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United Kingdom10443 Posts
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your Country52797 Posts
I like deadline because it adds an element of "should/can we switch off at the last second" which I think is pretty awesome.
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United Kingdom10443 Posts
I wonder if it is possible to add a "video mafia" system of formals and then majority votes.
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Instant is brutal. I didn't have issues with it in the last game I played that used it, but I can see very easily where one could have issues with it. I think having one stable deadline is almost necessary for a game to avoid degeneracy given how much activity occurs at EOD. I honestly don't see this as being much of a debate either, instant is great 4t3hl4wlz but I feel pretty clearly leads to strikingly lower levels of town play.
As for majority vs plurality, I greatly prefer a plurality system because it doesn't punish townies as hard for failing to vote together. I think this is an important component of the game, because punishment for failure to vote together creates an incentive to bandwagon a popular candidate, whether that candidate is actually a desirable lynch or not for the individual in question, simply to avoid no-lynch. Both plurality and majority systems can compel townies to optimize behavior for ensuring a compromise lynch they don't abhor instead of a lynch they actually want, which is suboptimal with respect to their win condition (find and lynch the people they think are most likely mafia), but majority does this far more regularly and with much harsher sanctions if players fail to heed its incentives. I think that distortion in incentives leads to a lower level of town play.
A lot of the above is opinion based on experience rather than formal, empirical analysis; I can see why someone might see the same data ("majority lynch distorts town incentives") and would conclude this is a good thing for the game (maybe town play needs to be lower for balance's sake). But I stand pretty firmly on the side of plurality over majority and unquestionably on the side of deadline over instant.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I dislike instant majority because usually there certain times of the day where I'll be available to post in the thread and I try my best to make sure the couple hours before the deadline is one of them. With instant, a bunch of people might jump on an idea and hammer before you even had the change to tell everyone how terrible it is. It also might punish people based on timezone if they suddenly get lynched at 3am local time. I suppose that could happen for deadline formats too, but at least there are no surprises there.
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I'm fine with instant majority. It's a bit different; my problem with it is that in my experience it's far rougher for town because town is more likely to afk/mia randomly. That on top of mafia not wanting to bus generally can make it very hard to get a decent lynch off.
I personally hate deadline majority and refuse to play it if I realize that's the setup. It's super mafia sided.
I prefer plurality lynches because I think it's the most fair to all sides involved. Active town and active scum can just roll the other side plus it allows people to know when they need to be on "fo sho" instead of having to guess whether or not a wagon will form randomly out of nowhere.
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
On February 03 2015 11:01 kitaman27 wrote:
I dislike instant majority because usually there certain times of the day where I'll be available to post in the thread and I try my best to make sure the couple hours before the deadline is one of them. With instant, a bunch of people might jump on an idea and hammer before you even had the change to tell everyone how terrible it is. It also might punish people based on timezone if they suddenly get lynched at 3am local time. I suppose that could happen for deadline formats too, but at least there are no surprises there.
+1
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IML would work if everyone was online or else its really mafia favored.
At least with deadline u can get the maximum amount of ppl online for the vote so its fair.
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I'm with geript and I disagree with kita and hf.
I think it's on town to regulate themselves to actually allow people a defense.
I hate deadline majority because it creates these weird situations where people are all going "look we can only get majority on players x and y so only vote them". Also, I actually think deadline majority is far more problematic for time zones because if you can't be around at the deadline you are essentially powerless because all the decisions will be made at the deadline.
The only problem with instant majority is finding some way of making it not like deadline majority, as in, there cannot be a hard deadline because town will just use that.
I actually would be okay with the host just RNG-ing a number between 24 and 72 or something to decide how long the day lasts and then not tell town, but I could understand why some people wouldn't like that.
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And I think plurality should remain our default, and the majority ones should be used occasionally to keep things varied.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
plurality
On February 03 2015 18:21 Palmar wrote:
I'm with geript and I disagree with kita and hf.
I think it's on town to regulate themselves to actually allow people a defense.
game is hard enough without having to add in this weird self-regulation.
and guess what, we don't have to, because we can choose!
I hate IML as both alignments. Where I can help it (a la kita) I like to be around for deadlines and I can try to arrange that. Not with IML.
Or as mafia, it's so hard to pace yourself in IML.
Most importantly, deadline plurality shenannies best shenannies
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On February 03 2015 11:01 kitaman27 wrote:
I dislike instant majority because usually there certain times of the day where I'll be available to post in the thread and I try my best to make sure the couple hours before the deadline is one of them. With instant, a bunch of people might jump on an idea and hammer before you even had the change to tell everyone how terrible it is. It also might punish people based on timezone if they suddenly get lynched at 3am local time. I suppose that could happen for deadline formats too, but at least there are no surprises there.
100%
Let's see...Hammertime, one townie gets lynched when I'm on a date, another townie got lynched when I was asleep....enough said.
Plurality should be used in most situations and deadline majority thrown in there to mix it up a little, but IML just gets chaotic and it seems like you can't really plan for anything or be able to persuade people when you need to.
For those who are saying deadline majority favours scum, is there any reasonable way to compensate for that by buffing town? Maybe it's a dumb question but...
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I tend to favor IML games, if only because there's something more realistic about it. I rather like the idea of an angry mob suddenly deciding to send someone to the gallows, as opposed to something as artificial as a "lynch deadline."
Also, IML is incredibly town favored.
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marv is just a town apologist.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I'm sure I missed a bunch, but I took a quick look through some of the instant majority games that I could find and mafia dominated most of them. It came out to 13 mafia wins, 3 town wins with a ton of flawless wins. The sample size isn't great, but it seems to suggest that the setups need to be tweaked to help town somewhere else.
Hammertime - Flawless Mafia Victory
Zesty Italian - Flawless Mafia Victory (micro setup)
Noir Chapter 2 - Flawless Mafia Victory
TL Mafia LXIV: The Restart - Close Town Victory
Extractor Trick - Close Mafia Victory
Gold Rush - Flawless Mafia Victory (micro setup)
Noir Chapter 1 - Flawless Mafia Victory
Carnival Cruise - Mafia Victory
TL Mafia LXI - Close Mafia Victory
Theme Gamed - Mafia Victory (only partially instant)
Looney Lynching - Mafia Victory (only partially instant)
British Empire - Close Town Victory
GSL Open Mini Mafia IV - Flawless Mafia Victory
GSL Mini Mafia III - Town Victory
GSL Open Mini Mafia II - Mafia Victory
Im a cop you idiot mafia - Mafia Victory
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On February 04 2015 02:53 kitaman27 wrote:
GSL Mini Mafia III - Town Victory
Mmmmmm <3
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British Empire II was a town victory and not included on that list. Vengeful Mini as well (although it was themed).
I'm actually really surprised how skewed the results are. Come to think of it, I've rolled town in all the IML games I've played in and ended up winning 'em. Maybe I'm just lucky =/
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On February 04 2015 03:05 Keirathi wrote:Mmmmmm <3
I love lynching me some mafia Marv.
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EPT
