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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Silver's voting for waffle happened, she literally voted early and didn't see the results till after work. I work too. That's unfortunate. I hope it doesn't happen often! or she is just luckier in her early votes. Either or works! Playing wise, she hasn't done anything to stand out in my opinion. Probably a good thing for her, especially day 1. It'll probably keep her in the game longer. Keeping my eye on her though, it will be interesting to see her plays later. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Reasons to Night kill Trfel: 1. Past games show he's great (do they? it sounded like HTS was deemed as #1 player based on that one game. My sister was even talking about how good HTS was in that game. The only time she brought up the game too. Guess your like really good at this game HTS). 2. Super noobs. I=super noob. I was scared Trfel would lynch me day 1 for my lack of insight because of what people were saying about him before the game started. I think I even alluded that I was scared day 1 if you would to check that. People with lack of insight were day 1 lurkers... that would defend shining in my mind? a mafia lurker would definitely not scumread people no one else scumread that would In fact draw suspicion (im alluding to his hate on Exo at the beginning) 3. Thinking he's like a cop or doctor. I don't like this reason because he wasn't either. I don't think he appeared to be? 4.People thinking he was acting super towny. I disagree with this. One scumread I could make on trfel despite not looking into filter is that he was lost and confused after WW was found to be both town and veteran. Sounds like a basic mafia, almost too obvious to be mafia, but not a great post to say he's super town. 5. other reasons I can't think of. I'm guessing #1 beats #2 because super noob mafia would listen to super good player mafia. In my mind super good player= players that have played the game before. What else would make you super good at this game besides like smarts? Who would be the candidates for reason #1? I know rsoultin has played like 2-3 games. HTS has played games. This is Celestial's first game. Exo no clue. LS has played games...but you know looks like a beached whale. silver's first. my second/first real one. gum's first? tube's 3rd my guess based on posts? I'm missing people. I think someone else would be better at helping me here. Guessing only 1 mafia is reason #1. if there are only 3 people that played often that only leaves a 1/3 chance of picking right on mafia. 3/11 is actually a better %... I swear I will contribute someday. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
dang u coaches. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I see that post now. I agree with that, I think my thought progression was slowly getting to that as well. Celestial you are good at scumreads! Very detailed and has facts and stuff. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 09 2015 09:26 Tubesock wrote: Also, you really need to start bleeding town. I think people will see my as scum until I die. Honestly trying super hard after Exo blew up on me day 1. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I'm giving my top three lynch targets. They are the same as before. I'm attaching percentages to them. This is % chance they are mafia in my book. 27% (3/10 +/- 3%) is the lowest % you can have. I'm attaching mini-normal % increases based on how the dead voted and giving myself a 3% buffer for on my opinions of their play so far. 1. LS- 46%. 14% increase based on dead votes and a 2% increase based on today's play and the day 1 claim. I still sympathize with LS, but that's why I'm using equations over my feelings. One of the cases I saw with LS in also had everyone on LS's balls for almost the whole game (at least based off votes). 2. Shining- 39%. 9% increase based on dead votes. 0% on my opinions of the 2 days play. 3. Tube Sock- 38%. 11% increase based on dead votes. 3% decrease based on play. The early waffle vote on tube hurt tube a lot. I also wonder if waffle wasn't under pressure, if he would have kept the tube vote. But I have really liked tube's play today. I liked his theory, however flawed it was. My estimate is very flawed. I only have 2 past cases of voting history to go on as of now. I also haven't really attributed any points towards good voting. But it's all I've got, besides my opinions. If I make it back before the votes, count on me switching my vote from LS to a bandwagon I agree with IF my vote is alone AND I can use my vote to lynch someone on this list. I'm providing my %'s of everyone else if you are curious, not explaining them though because its 3 in the morning. Hope this helps understand my thoughts. 4. Gumdrop 33% 5. Silverarte 33% 6. Celestial 32% 7. Rsoultin 31% 8. Exo 30% 9. HTS 28% | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
really? claim doctor? geeez. I bet day 3 someone claims cop. I don't know what will happen day 4. I can see this being a mafia swinged LS lynch. Or it could be that mafia gave up. I would give up on LS if he was mafia. LS, if you die I would like to know who you think is evil. Can you put a top 3 list together? I don't need explanations. I need honesty though. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 10 2015 08:50 LightningStrike wrote: I had a decent case on Scib in Metal on MYLO but Kush was the most stubborn person I ever played with :O my entire 2 posts on ExO pretty much is how I feel about ExO and my suspcions of why him. I actually read that case! well the votes. so Exo #1? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Ya if HTS is mafia WE ARE ALL SCREWED. Sorry you got boned if your town LS. If I play with you again I will remember this game. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
EZ GAME EZ LIFE | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I could totally see LS reads being good. I'm thinking my vote would be for Exo right now. If I was vigi the vigi shot could definitely save the game or finish us off. Time to nut up or shut up. Or maybe wait a night. THEN its time to nut up or shut up. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 10 2015 23:36 Half the Sky wrote: JJB, a few more questions on your equations and how you applied them. You scumread LS based on the (I assume?) VT claim. Did his post-lynch comments have any bearing on your rating? Shining question I asked before, but will ask again, he's since posted, and you're saying you have no alignment indicative information? You also have different increases based on dead votes, and from D1 voting, Shining, LS, Tube and Silver all voted Waffle. and you have Silver at a max 6% increase based on dead voting, Rasputin even less. You say you are using numbers, but you would think, when they all vote the same person, why are the percentages different (in bold)? I didn't explain my equations because they aren't very sound They are based on what the dead had done rather than who voted for the dead. I think both NK and lynched voted for LS at a point in time. One voted for tube at one point and one voted for shining at another. In my equations, Rsoultin and silver got the pass. Should they have? Prob not. Definitely not the soundest of equations, I should definitely fix them to include everything. I'm wondering if my equations might not apply to this game because #1 its newbie and #2 LS caused everyone to be suspicious of him despite being town. Like hard suspicious. I will still update them and apply them for this next round and hope for the best. But I will also do what I think is best. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:17 rsoultin wrote: JarJar, please answer my question on ExO. Also, why are you exclusively focusing on who the dead townies voted for? Trfel I can understand. But do you think the lynch trains were started by mafia specifically because of who the dead towns were voting? I'm trying to follow your logic. I did this because it was the key to getting that scum guy I found our first game that no one thought was scum. I thought it could translate to this game and others. I looked through some other cases and found that it could be rather significant. I just checked on how significant votes are that helped lynch a towny. So far (very limited data points) they are much less significant. If I entered it in my equations, Rsoultin silver shining LS and tube would all have been a 1-2% increase. I don't think this would have changed the outcome of my equation because LS was winning by such a large margin. if I have time today, I'm going to add more cases. More datapoints is better and I have so few right now. I missed the question on Exo, sorry. I'll go look for it. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 10 2015 14:15 rsoultin wrote: Also, JarJar...when you said that you were trying to "scumread" the 5 on the WW lynch...with scumread in quotes just like that... Does that mean you were deliberately making cases against 5 players just to make scum cases? I really didn't notice this before, but it legitimately looks like you were contriving the reads on purpose for the sake of making them rather than because you actually believed them... Not only that but you outright lied to me. You lied about having those cases made already, which makes it look like you wanted a reason just to throw one my direction. You lied about using your computer vs. your phone. You probably lied about your work hours...2200? No Lt in an office full of civilians crunching numbers works till 2200. Lie after lie. I don't see reads on Celestial or ExO anywhere really from you. That nullish post. Then saying Celestial is good at making cases (BS, btw, he stole most of the points on Shining from others and emulated your word diarrhea to say the same things on me he'd been saying while making it look like his case had more substance by sheer volume). Finally in your numbers which you didn't explain for people despite their asking you, you buried them in your town list. So LS' death suddenly makes ExO a good lynch? Auto lynch the player that the scummy mislynched towns were scumreading? Please tell me you at least attempted to evaluate his play first, and vet LS' case? I don't like this post. It offends me. I didn't lie about any of that. Closest thing to a lie was saying I hadn't downloaded Microsoft. Which I didn't. If I use my broken compy, every 2-3 pages clicked on here becomes unresponsive. I've developed a way to limit the times it is unresponsive so I've been using the broken compy now. Logic told me that if I add suspicion to people who voted to kill town, that might help get other people to be more suspicious get a better read on the scum. I did not have them "ready" besides the one on you. Your story was the first thing that popped in my mind when I started. I did not write all the cases beforehand. I don't think I said that? I also didn't think they were all scum, and already determined to do what I'm doing now with my case studies to really have my own opinion on scum. My work has gotten more complicated. I'm pretty much doing two jobs now. 10 pm? I never was that late. Latest I've gotten home was like between 7-8 if I can recall it right. Yesterday I got home around 630. For me, the EOD is 7. If you would like to call and talk about it, I would be happy to. I'd rather not start complaining on here about my job though. Ya I have made no reads on celestial and Exo. I complemented Celestials post because his scumread looked better than mine. Exo is on my list as bad right now if that means anything. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
added 2% scum based on what I was thinking his quotes were at the time I remember telling myself, I will laugh wen all of us think he's scum and he turns town. Not as funny now that we are in trouble of losing without even getting 1 right. I'm busy but I will spin my equation stuff up and post my thoughts. Based on knowledge of it I would guess exo and shining are top 2 with a very large dropoff before #3 | ||
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