EPT##Vote: LightningStrike
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
##Vote: LightningStrike | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On January 08 2015 09:48 rsoultin wrote: Thanks for the follow-up. It is your last-minute vote on WW that had me reconsidering my scumread on you, as you can see in the final paragraph. Since theoretically there are at least 3 scum still it seems like you should be secure enough in the lynches if you're scum to not have to vote on WW yourself. The thing that makes me twitch is this post right at tick: ...It's a justification for your last minute vote that doesn't line up with your prior concern about lynching WW or your explanation above. Why would you even feel the need to justify yourself with players (JarJar) jumping onto your train last minute? This feels like you just made this up. Completely on the fence here. Can you clear this up for me? Tube's tunneling was what I went off of. Once I compared Tube's comments to WW's posts, my faith in WW's claim being real wavered. I was weary of lynching WW but since no one wanted to give WW's soft-claim any credit, I felt maybe Tube was onto something here and WW was misleading us. If it just so happened to counter my wagon as well, even better. I was tentative to admit that it was a vote to counter my wagon, so I just went with my paranoia getting the best of me. That's why when I gave you the follow up you asked for, I said "Yes, I am admitting I voted to counter my wagon." That sentence implies that it's the main reason why I voted, with the justification I gave at EoD as the facade. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
At the end of my first big D2 post, I gave Jar Jar a scum read and accused him of slow pushing a town lynch, namely, me. Can I get yours and anyone else's thoughts on that? | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On January 08 2015 10:49 rsoultin wrote: Yeah...that was the feel I was getting. I really don't like the lying thing. It rubs me the wrong way. People being too concerned about being "consistent" (yes Celeste, that's at you, though damn these newbie games and figuring out what is noob and what is scum) and how their actions appear to others rubs me wrong. Meh. I'll have to think on you, Shining. You seemed very wishy-washy at the beginning, plus all the excuses, especially with your first two posts. The analysis seemed like a place holder with no conclusion. Something to look busy without committing. Can you please explain to me how Celestial's explanation of blue-hunting lines up with what you thought I was doing, and link the post from Silver that made you change your mind? I don't like LS and JarJar is bugging me because his giant screamy post (apart from being directed at me, which is convenient actually since I know him best) is just way out-of-character for him. My brother isn't terribly aggressive normally, especially with such obvious bias and leading words meant to make you form your opinion the way he wants. But, eh, LS...he's hard for me to read cause he gets scumread every single game, you know? Meh. I can see where that would be an issue for you, the lying and being consistent but that's why I'm taking D2 now so seriously. Think on me as long as you need to and ask me anything you need to. You'll see, especially with my last few posts, that all I'm trying to do is help town. On January 05 2015 23:22 -Celestial- wrote: Hey guys. Trying to get my head around the theme because I've never actually watched 24, though I know about it. I know, I know, sorry.  Got my thesis submitted this morning, yay! So now I have time to actually do stuff. Although I'm not going to spend ALL my time in here because frankly I had no Christmas or New Year and my Birthday is next Monday so...yeah I have to make up for that. Going to watch all of Breaking Bad and Puella Magi Madoka Magica. :D But I'll still do whatever I can to help with the scumhunting in between trying to relax. Anyway, as I understand it we need to decide on a lynch for Wednesday night, right? According to the counter anyway. Going to be tricky because lots of new players but of those few who HAVE played before...well actually I've been watching some of the recent mafia games over the holiday before I even signed up so I recognise some names. Hope that helps with my reading. I'm not really familiar with most of the people here I've got some initial thoughts on other people's posts so far. I've read it all and there's just enough to make comments on everyone at this early point: The Shining made some good points on both HtS and rsoultin. Not a lot to go on but I like his thinking and comments on both of them, its logical and nicely detailed. I'd tentatively start learning towards town on this guy based on that. Half the Sky posted some fluff and moved onto questioning a couple of people in the last couple of posts. Some people posted some good things about scum reads but Trfel's point that she opened the other game exactly the same way (where she was town) has a lot of merit, I watched some of that game myself actually before signing up here and found her really hard to get a read on early. So for now I'm just saying neutral. rsoultin running around poking people with accusations. Little bit too quick about it and jumping from person to person very fast it seems. I'm not sure whether to read that as a genuine scumhunt attempt or bluehunting. And very, very quick to judge HtS like he's trying to find a reason to hang someone up as a nice big lynch target right away. Neutral leaning towards scum, I'm somewhat suspicious but I'm not sure if that's my own feeling or influenced by comments from other people so it'd be unfair to go all of the way and say scum. Maybe he's just really enthusiastic? jarjarbinks hasn't posted much to go on at all. Don't know whether that's because of the claimed computer problems or because he's trying to stay unnoticed though so its somewhat unfair to read at this early point. Though he IS making a lot of inactivity accusations which doesn't look good. Trfel made a good initial impressions post with a good observation about HtS. Neutral. I want to almost say "leaning away from scum but not leaning town" here from that first post because its how I feel even thought it makes no sense. Gumdrop one post. Neutral because judging based on one short post, as for jarjarbinks, is unfair at this point. Silverarte immediately jumped by rsoultin for lack of clarity after her first post commenting on his reading on all his jumping about. This very much makes me feel they're not teamed up as otherwise they'd not want to draw attention like that. My initial feeling is that either one of them is scum or neither is. Though that could change with more posts. TheWarWaffle gave an analysis on HtS that seems earnest. On the other hand Trfel pointed out that HtS opened exactly similarly to last time when she was town; and given that WW made such a big deal of the quality of his reads it seems a bit strange that he'd either miss such an obvious source of information. So either WW is trying to make an earnest analysis as town and isn't aware of HtS' past game (which would seem strange given his apparent confidence), or he's scum and might be trying to get a lynch train going against HtS. Possibly with rsoultin possibly just taking advantage of his early comments, I don't know. Hard read to make. ExO_ made good points about rsoultin and jarjarbinks and was good to call out WarWaffle on his claims of tells but not actually saying anything. Although he hasn't posted a lot I like what I've seen. Probably my strongest townread. LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly. Tubesock is coming across as really scummy from those first few posts. He comments about how he likes rsoultin's finger pointing and comments on jarjar positively as well despite the fact the guy has said little. His only other comments are a question about guides, a comment about how we definitely need to lynch D1 and how "even a mislynch gets a lot of information" and playing down his D1 read ability in order to remain under the radar. It seems a mix of sidetracking, contributing for the sake of looking like contributing, and making excuses for not really getting involved. So yeah...in short I'd say that my strongest townread so far is probably ExO_ and my strongest scumread would be Tubesock. Though with not much to go on so far that could all change. Convince me! :D Day 1 is hard. Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now. When I said I agreed with Celestial, the bolded part is what I meant. At the beginning, you attacked HTS(apparently jokingly), Silver and myself. At the time, you were the only one questioning in the thread so it was my mistake to discourage conversation but the way you went about it put me off at first. Since then, you've asked me to give original thoughts, which I have today. As for the Silver post that changed my mind: On January 05 2015 13:26 Silverarte wrote: HTS I believe was my main subject in my previous comment, though Rsoultin, I see the Cheshire grin there. Having fun yet? Shining is right. You did switch to me awfully quick there. As I explained in one of my earlier posts, this was my entire train of thought here(The relevant part is in bold, I just didn't want to edit any of my quotes and get accused of changing stuff): On January 07 2015 08:05 The Shining wrote: First, two things to help clarify. One, I'm a he. Man. Dude. Whatever. XD Second, I mentioned yesterday it was my weekend, I go back to work tomorrow. Normally, I sit around on the computer on day but family has been kidnapping me for the first weekend I've been available since New Year's so I apologize for my lack of activity. To HTS: I answered that for you already. You asked where I was getting the "blue-hunting" from and maybe it was just a misunderstanding on my part, but when Rsoultin posted this: At the time, it felt to me like that was her trying to get Silver to elaborate and get a possible free read. If Silver responds with "I'm talking about so and so, could they be -insert power role here-?" it could've given clues as to who is or isn't. Once Silver elaborated that she meant "It makes me curious when Rsoultin is energetically after scum right at the get go. Could they be scum?" I realized I was wrong and that is why I haven't mentioned much of it since. As for sheeping ExO's town read and giving him a scumread in the same post, I was only going off of ExO's own remarks. As he said, Mafia loves to give free town reads to people. At first, HTS was only leaning scum to me for avoiding WW's line of questioning. Once HTS responded, I wasn't quite convinced she's leaning town until ExO gave her a townread and blatantly said she's not a good Day 1 lynch. Since then, she has built decent town cred. How convenient would it be for ExO as scum to side with someone he KNOWS is town? Also, since meta was brought up, I would say throw mine right out the window. As it was mentioned, that game I played as Mafia was very inactive as it is and I never take those very seriously at all. This is quite literally my first time playing an actual serious-setting Mafia where reading posts and getting reads is important, as opposed to sitting back and letting people give themselves away. As for LS and Jar Jar, I've only ever played with Jar Jar once or twice, in much more inactive games, as we all know. So yes, the walls of text posts are out of character to me, as well. I don't like that he tried to direct today with basically no follow through, either. You can't just hint at Trfel's voting me as being the reason he died, then offer absolutely nothing else up. And my vote is staying on LS until I hear a defense. Even then, I'm pretty sure I'll keep it there. I don't believe in the VT claim and I've already stated my reasons for my vote. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On January 08 2015 13:08 LightningStrike wrote: Also I do think maybe mafia also could frame Shining and Me with that Night Kill on to Tfrel since he voted for but idk I will filter dive Tfrel in the morning because I really sleepy right now so I will get back with you guys in the morning! It's convenient to group us together and call the framing ahead of time, since it's likely exactly what will happen here. HTS, to answer you, I do not know Silverarte, unless she goes by another name that I'm unaware of. The only people that I know I've played with before are Jar Jar, RSoultin and ExO. As for why I gave Silver a town read, I looked through her filter as I was doing my vote analysis. It came down to her and LS. Her posts up until now, although not the highest number, have all done a good job of showing she's reading the thread when she can and answering questions and suspicions directed towards her pretty well, when possible. As opposed to LS, who I've made my case against already. I don't think the mafia is dumb enough to have 2 members on the main wagon so I had to choose between the two and Silver leans slightly more towards Town. Also, another page will probably appear while I'm posting this so more to follow. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
@RSoultin, I'm glad that you clarified that you won't rule anyone out based on a flip. My purpose of that post was to let it be known to everyone in the thread that, should I be lynched due to my less-than-stellar play to this point, I'll flip town and that should in no way exonerate LS. I'm well aware there is a possibility I might be wagoned today and with LS now trying to push the theory that we're both framed and being so wishy-washy with his read on me(I went from all in scumread lynch at EoN to somewhere on page 41, I'm a town read again...remember my thoughts on Mafia giving free town reads?) I wanted there to be no misinterpretation that LS is scum in my eyes. However, I'm not going to beat a dead horse when it comes to the LS case. He's doing a good job of finishing himself off as his filter grows. @Celestial, one townread is one townread. 2 townreads is a couple. Explain to me how 3 reads leaning town so early in the game is not a bunch? As I mentioned in the post you responded to, I've learned that Mafia, especially Day One, likes to hide behind those big posts with a couple of town reads to hopefully gain some credit. It doesn't escape me that your 3 Town reads were: Trfel - NK. He didn't like your big post but never got to elaborate on you. Confirmed town. ExO - Aside from me not liking his early attacks with too little follow through for my liking, most everyone here liked his play and the points he made. I'm almost willing to chalk it up to my newb play and meta bias from past games with him that I seem to be the odd one out but it's convenient that he's a Town read for you, too. It's almost too easy to sheep multiple players believing ExO is town. Shining - Me. I had already been under suspicion for my questioning Soultin and HTS. It's another free town read for you as scum. Why were you one of the ones Town reading me for the same posts everyone else was scumming me? Because you expected my wagon to pick up more. Once I flip town, you can say "I told you so, guys, let's stop mislynching" and try to lead the discussion. Sort of what you did with WW. Although you didn't Town him, you did go "against" his lynch, somewhat. However, after looking at the Voting Thread and your filter, this troubles me: On January 06 2015 23:33 -Celestial- wrote: I tend to agree with this assessment to be honest. I had WW down as leaning scum right from his early attempt at analysis but its just gotten drastically worse since then. See, you go from scumming WW to saying it has gotten worse. However, once WW's train received it's 3rd vote, you started backpedaling. Probably to have some deniability on the wagon you wanted to go through? On January 06 2015 23:53 Silverarte wrote: ##Vote: TheWarWaffle On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote: Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there. I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore. I'm going to take a chance and remove my vote from there and put it on someone else. Its between WW, Shining and jarjar for me, as per my reads earlier. I agree with Tube, WW isn't the best candidate. His opening post was weak and he's said nothing since then but that isn't enough for me to lynch him at this early stage. I'd like to see more from Shining before I could put a vote down there. So I guess I'm going with jarjar for now since I have to vote for SOMEONE and frankly I really don't like his posting at all, it looks really scummy; was also the second highest read on my list so... ##Unvote ##Vote: jarjarbinks I think I'm still somewhat tainted by rsoultin's original impression on me. I really, really didn't like what appeared to be bluehunting (the reasoning for which I posted a little while back, I can quote it if you like). Though she has improved somewhat since that I'm still wary. Gumdrops I've just flat out not seen enough from to make much of a judgement call. Same with Trfel. But both of them posted something that appeared to be reasonably thought out so slight leanings towards town. Trfel also stated in advance he wouldn't be around for a bit and Gumdrops just seems awkward about posting. I can't condemn either of them to scum for that. Silver I have literally no idea about, as I posted. I'd appreciate anyone else's thoughts because to me it just appears to be a mix. You didn't start great which is why I leaned you towards scum, but I didn't find your opening to be as scummy as rsoultins was and you've both improved in my eyes to the point where you're both back to neutral. But since rsoultin started off with slightly more damning posts you're slightly more in the townie direction than she is. All of your "lynching WW is silly" was after the wagon already picked up speed. I've already explained why you'd throw away a vote as scum once the lynch already looks secured. Also, as EoD got closer, I asked my question about ties. At that time, it was WW's 4 to my 3. Your question was: On January 07 2015 08:55 -Celestial- wrote: So even if someone other than WW got a vote he'd still die? This was your opportunity to figure out if you needed to join one of the main wagons or not. If ties end in no lynch, you'd vote either WW or myself in order to ensure a town mislynch. Also, can I point out(since I filter-dove you pretty hard) that you also scummed Tube, but sheeped his WW read? It's quoted above but you said "I agree with Tube, WW isn't the best lynch for today." And I just hit Celestial's massive post on my case. First, a case on LS when we've all beaten it to death and now me, pretty much the only other viable wagon besides yourself(who you can't vote) and LS(possible scum partner)? I guess I'd pick the easy way, too, if I were scum. Let me finish reading up but I'm interested to see how many of these bullets are parrots off of others. Also, you're scumreading me after I scumread you. Convenient. More to follow after reading Celestial's case against me and everything after. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On January 09 2015 12:27 Half the Sky wrote: I'm positive that ties end in a lynch on the first individual to have received that number of votes. I am aware of this, that's what Celestial was asking for clarification on. What I was saying was, hypothetically, if ties ended in no lynch instead of WW still being lynched for getting to 4 first, Celestial's vote would not have stayed on Jar Jar if someone voted me and tied. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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The Shining
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The Shining
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Also, the way Celestial claimed doc is very scum-favored. It diverts a lynch without having to prove anything. There was no hinting or bread crumbing, or even pushing another lynch(why would you? You knew the other wagon was town). This is an open game and Doc is the easiest thing to claim to save yourself from a lynch. Add this to the fact that our vet already flipped and it leads me to believe that there IS no doc. Celestial HAS to be the lynch tomorrow. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
You know what. This replacement hit the track blazing in an attempt to win for scum today. Comes in and immediately jumps on one of the easiest scumreads in the game in me. Almost every one of you have scummed me at some point or another and yet here I am. Why would scum nk me, regardless of who I'm suspicious of, if I'm on every scum list? Now they're finally pushing me to win the game. With a replacement, no less. I can't wait until this one is over so I can see who flips scum because you guys played a good game, starting with taking advantage of my inexperience and loss of internet at work. A part of me wants to sit here and defend myself but hell, even I'm wondering if I'm scum now. Because you know, I would definitely kill RSo after naming me her second top scumread. I love how Tube can say it was possibly done to set up ExO. I don't get that BoD though because I'm everyone's free and easy scum read. I don't have any faith whatsoever that I'll convince any of you but unfortunately I have to try because Town is about to throw this game. I am VT. If LS, Rso, Trfel and I pulled VT, with Silver as cop, we have Celestial, HTS, Tube, Scott, ExO, JJB left. ExO and Tube are somewhat cleared by cop checks. Either both are town or one is the Godfather. Regardless, on a mylo, we need to take our best shot at scum. Both Tube and Exo have gotten numerous townreads and seem to be helping town so taking a chance on one of them is risky. After HTS diving into Rso's case against me, along with just about every post so far, I'm more convinced HTS is our safest townread. That leaves us down to JJB, Scott, Celestial. Left me start by saying I'm not necessarily scumming all 3 of them. I thought I made a good point with my game balance argument and now that Cop claimed, I'm even less sure that Town would have a Vet, Cop AND Medic. Can someone please explain to me how that is balanced? However, RSo being killed during her questioning ExO and being the strongest opposition to a Celestial lynch today makes me think one of two possibilities, which sucks because I don't want to wind myself in circles. 1) Framing ExO and letting the mislynch of Celestial happen with no opposition. This seems to be the painfully obvious scum move, though. It almost seems too easy to figure out if I'M the one figuring it out. 2) Scum has shown that they're not stupid, up to this point. So has Celestial. It doesn't seem impossible to me that Celestial will still flip scum. . I thought I made a good point with my game balance argument and now that Cop claimed, I'm even less sure that Town would have a Vet, Cop AND Medic. Can someone please explain to me how that is balanced? However, RSo being killed during her questioning ExO and being the strongest opposition to a Celestial lynch today makes me think one of two possibilities, which sucks because I don't want to wind myself in circles. 1) Framing ExO and letting the mislynch of Celestial happen with no opposition. This seems to be the painfully obvious scum move, though. It almost seems too easy to figure out if I'M the one figuring it out. 2) Scum has shown that they're not stupid, up to this point. So has Celestial. It doesn't seem impossible to me that Celestial will still flip scum. Could they have thought ahead enough that we'd write off the ExO framing as too obvious and therefore not plausible, gaining ExO more credit and protection? And killing RSo assuming we'd follow her "Celestial is a bad lynch today" theory, gaining a little credit for a 2nd member, as well. Unfortunately I can't chalk that up to anything more than tin foil theory or pure paranoia. But at Mylo, i see no sense in holding back ANY of my thoughts. Jar Jar was somewhat scummy to me at one point, and his numbers did confuse me, but he was never top scum for me. I also don't see the sense in him killing RSo right after she started leaning town on him. If you're scum, why kill someone who went from attacking you to possibly towning you? That being said, I need to see where his posts are at today. As for Scott, hes a replacement. Nothing to go off besides his entrance and case on me today, which I'd like to address. Unfortunately, Tube made some of my defense points before I could, which threw me off a bit but w.e. First, my "weak" case on LS, however wrong it ended up being. I'm not sure how weak it was, considering I dove past games of his to notice his sheeping habits on batsnacks in Student Mafia emulated his sheeping RSoultins every read. As for not listening to reason to change my vote, the only other wagon was Celestial, who I was actively pushing. Since you quoted vote counts, you know LS had 7 to Celestials 1 after claiming Doc. Why would I waste my vote on a Doc claim when it would've made the count 6-2? If I didn't listen to reason to change vote, neither did 6 others. I agree my filter isn't the biggest and it likely won't ever be. Perks of being forced to post and read on a tablet 95% of my posts. Also, what's up with the fluff post? Although I do appreciate HTS diving into RSo's case on me to make it clearer, I didn't find it necessary to quote the whole thing just to say thank you. It reads to me as "Thank you, strong town read, for elaborating a case on a townie I'd like to see die to win." Also, your reads aren't the strongest, considering you called mine weak. All of your town reads have already been strongly towned by other town reads. It seems all you had to do was run with those reads and find a thread each to back it up. Not hard when you're playing catch up. I have no fear discussing anything and everything I've done and said up until now. I'm pretty sure if you look into my small filter, you see me address the bluehunting comment on RSo. Twice. So however wrong I may have been about her doing it and how to spot it, it was I who was being cautious of bluehunting on Day 1. And this post is my all in to help town, since I keep seeing that I'm apparently not. Oh and no, I'm not new. However, I will admit this is the most active game I've ever played, by far. This has definitely been a learning experience for me. Seriously, though, lynch me and we lose. I'd rather not lose my first ever TL Mafia game, especially without a single scum flip. Note: this post was written at work over the last few hours, with another tab opened up and updating the thread as I continued typing so some of my thoughts brewing while others were in response to recent posts. If anything needs clarification, please let me know. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
Also, the paragraph containing the "what's up with the fluff post" question was directed at Scott. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
I do agree that he needed to enter with substance, I was just simply pointing out that, from my POV, killing the most scumread townie is the best play for him if he is in fact scum. BoD = benefit of the doubt. Someone on day 1 or 2 acronym'd it and I liked it lol. Also, if you can't tell, the beginning of my post was almost giving up. I mentioned it was a running post. That section was written before I saw your defense post but I have no real way to prove that except to point out that, during my post, there is a change in tone. I started off frustrated at where I stood in everyone's eyes. After the venting, I realized it was helping nothing so I said I'd give it one last shot instead of giving up. The Celestial mislynch comment was misunderstood. I wasn't trying to say I was the first or only one to come up with it, just taking a jab at my poor play by saying even someone playing as badly as I have can logically follow that train of thought to that conclusion. Tin foil time, since Tube asked. Basically, it has ExO as Godfather, Celestial as mafia/RB and either JJB or Gumdrop/Scott as 3rd. ExO asked a question knowing it wouldn't be answered by EoN because RSo was going to die. Her hardest push before death was ExO at 90%. It is so painfully obvious if Mafia killed her to stop her pushing ExO's lynch that it isn't plausible because i would normally think ExO is too smart to make that mistaske and frame himself as scum if he actually is scum. So he makes himself look so scummy with thr NK that he cant be scum. As I've said before, playing with ExO numerous times means I know better than to put that past him. By that same logic, Celestial also agreeing with ExO(hypothetically, this is still tinfoil) on killing RSo makes sense. RSo said Celestial wasn't a good lynch today. So killing the person against the Celestial lynch means the Mafia wants us to lynch Celestial. We don't want to do what the Mafia wants us to so we won't lynch Cell today. If they thought all of that through, they kill RSoultin to ensure we follow her logic of not lynching Celestial, saving their scum member in the process. /endtinfoiltheory Like I said, I likely wouldve scumread myself if I played with myself. So it could just be paranoia but I feel weird when anyone defends me after bad play. Lol. And I was so convinced that LS would flip scum that I couldn't see any other viable candidates at the time of that post. I thought me not shying away from a vote would look good if he flipped scum. I did also try to case against Celestial but with the unCC claim, I saw no point in changing my vote or pushing for a mass vote change. If anything, I felt that'd be highly out of character and, since people were toying with the idea of both of us being scum if one flipped scum, it would just look like me trying to save a scumbuddy, since I was convinced he would flip scum anyway. Granted, I'm at work and on this tablet so you can expect the gaps in responses to be about the time between Tube's questions and the time of this post, since that is the most recent post as I write this. I'll read on from there now to see if anything else needs answering, clarification or something. I also apologize for not being able to pick it up more earlier in the game. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
I gave you my top 4 with the tinfoil theory I have. Honestly, having played with ExO is really making it hard for me to not believe there's some free to it. If I had to drop one of those 4, it'd be JJB because I have nothing alignment indicative on him today. That, plus I'm still not able to piece out why JJB would kill RSo after RSo eased up on him. So tinfoil mafia: ExO, Celestial, Gumdrop/Scott. It doesn't help that ExO continuously posts excuse after excuse while still being present in the thread. He asks questions, seems to help out the town and tries to figure out the game, gives good reads and then wraps it up with computer problems. Or traveling. Or some other excuse. Why so many excuses if you're still posting more frequently than someone like, say, me? Is it to have some plausible deniability to avoid an uncomfortable question or situation when needed? Sidenote: happy birthday Celestial! | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On January 12 2015 08:43 Tubesock wrote: Scott, why'd you pick this post as a town example of me? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=33#659 Somewhat unrelated but I'm glad I clicked and saw which post this was. I imagine I know why Scott went with that one but I'll let him answer. Not going to make anything easier for who I think may be scum. I am posting because I think I now know why Trfel died. As Tube mentions, he basically softreads WW, LS and myself as town but is a little unsure. He also says he is sheeping his strongest town reads in HTS and RSo onto me. That's 5 town reads, whether explicitly or hinted at. WW, LS, Rso all flipped town. I know I'm town and HTS is a strong townread. Trfel had the game almost figured out day one. If he stuck with those reads past day one and could gain momentum, it would've been process of elimination for him. He mentions he had 100% on his reads last game. It looks like he did at the beginning of this game, too, at least on town. He only second guessed myself and LS because of RSo and HTS reads and bad play, respectively. And it has already been brought up that one of the only things Trfel found off was no one disagreeing with Celestial's opening posts and reads. That, plus his initial correct townreads, means Celestial could've panicked and killed him before he pieced together any more. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On January 12 2015 10:59 scott31337 wrote: The Shining - Your tinfoil hat theory shows ExO_ as a possible godfather. Exo_ came to post once on his thoughts and has left for video mafia and another game. Do you think he's trying to skate on Silver's greencheck to victory? Could you also tell me what you think of HTS's case? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=56#1104 I see you went over mine, and I appreciate it, but skipped over hers. Considering I was in that video mafia and am in the other game with him, it is hard to tell. He hasn't posted in my other game, either, but it is still possible, since he was in our video mafia chat until nice and uber late last night. He did however mention the same comp problems and excuses there that he did here. Whether it was true or for my benefit since he knows I'm here, too, I honestly can't tell. The longer he waits, though, the more suspicious I get. As for HTS case, I thought I addressed it in my first post but I didn't make it clear who I was responding to and where. Next post I'll do that, working on it now. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
1) It is a dead horse but for this case, I will beat it, sort of. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=31#608 That is the post where I address my start, for easy reference. 2) Easing off ExO? My tinfoil has him as Godfather lol. I never stopped suspecting him but with little that I could come up with, post wise, I was left with my own thoughts and paranoia. Then, you've got influential opinions from players like this: On January 07 2015 06:45 Tubesock wrote: Gumdrop, I'd love it if you explained your vote on ExO more. You're currently wasting it completely. In no world is ExO being lynched today. I couldn't come up with anything other than my tinfoil theory for ExO. Why would I throw it against such strong convictions as that? I felt it'd make me even more suspicious than I already was. 3) This one is totally and utterly my fault. When I first signed up for this game, I was under the impression that I still had internet access at work. By the time it actually started, rules here at work had changed. I mentioned on Day 2 I believe that it was my weekend(I'm off Mondays and Tuesdays) and I'd be able to post more. Normally, I'm home and online gaming on my days off and I fully believed I would be able to. However, as I believe I also mentioned, it was my first time off since the holidays and my family kidnapped me. Then I got back to work this week Wednesday to find out no internet access on work compouter. Thursday was payday, I bought myself a new tablet after work Thursday night to have web at work. I mentioned this Friday morning, when I posted. I believe Friday night was EoD 2, as well. (I'm EST BTW, figured it might be relevant). Weekends are always busy here so I posted what little I could at work on my tablet Friday and Saturday during Night and took advantage of the slow Sunday today. Most of the time, I had been gone so long that i was pretty much forced to only post posts defending myself and all the times I was scumread, while also bring crushed for time or distracted by work. I had to somehow get my reads out, too, but unfortunately having them all in the same post(defending myself against people who I had scumread) led to most of what I was saying being called OMGUS posts, instead of genuine reads. 4) The balance argument. Yes, I made an assumption since this is a semi open setup. I'll play out the scenario. 2/9 chance for Mafia shot to fail night one. Either Vet takes one or Doc saves. Regardless, if you have both, this means potential for multiple night saves, PLUS having to waste 2 nights on killing the Vet. Seems unbalanced. As for those breadcrumbing and hints, I want to say I overlooked them but rereading them...for Day 1 posts, they're pretty telling. As I've mentioned before, I'm convinced the scum team is a pretty smart bunch. If I'm scum and see someone worrying about not living through the night(Celestials bolded text that HTS used to show possible hinting), I have to wonder why they're so afraid of dying. Why would mafia let one of the only players breadcrumbing live? And Celestial didn't mention blue hunting on RSo until after I did. I'm not sure if breadcrumbing with that or just sheeping my thoughts with a better explanation? Since you pointed out scum posting tends to fall off late game, I'd like to note today is probably my most active day. So HTS, Scott, case on me reviewed. Any more questions? | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On January 12 2015 15:23 jarjarbinks wrote: Man Shining, I'm completely convinced you are town! Like seriously, your posts since day 1 have been very good. These are my lists... I made one for if silver is telling the truth and one if she isn't. I didn't include either because if silver is telling the truth, she should be on the list. If she IS lying, then she definitely is mafia. I really think she is telling the truth though. On the crap model (I gave myself a 3% buffer this time), I think the best way is to compare the numbers and see the drop-offs. This is % chance they are evil. IF lying (there would be only 2 mafia in this list, as silver would be a 3rd): 1. Exo (54%) 2. Shining (36%) 3. Tube (33%) 4. HTS(32%) 5. Gum/Scott, Gum/Celestial (30%) 6. JarJarBinks (29% you can add or subtract 3% here. I left it at 0) IF Silver=cop (3 mafia in this one): 1. Shining (67%) 2. HTS (64%) 3.(tie) Celestial, Gum/Scott (61%) 3. JarJarBinks (add or subtract 3% based on how you feel) 4. Exo (35%) 5. Tube (10%) O.K. so trying to explain my thoughts derived from this. I apologize to you if this is confusing and/or it seems like I'm hiding behind numbers. Think of it like I'm literally running to them because you guys are all confusing...lol People to look at: EXO! Silver copped him day 1. 1/11 chance she cops him and he's Godfather. Based on his actions, he's above a 1/3 chance! That's craaaaaazy. Look at the difference between him and Tube there. There's people scumreading Exo on here as well. LS (partially why his rank is so high in the first place) and Rsoultin both read him before they died. Shining I really think Shining is good guys. My model definitely doesn't. I did subtract 3% on both lists. I think I made an error on my last post of putting him at 90%. I think I added Exo's points to Shining's 65% baseline (Exo was at 9% without his points added). If someone will kill roleblock in lynch and silver gets a shot at looking at someone, this is who I would suggest. WOULD CLEAR A LOT OF THINGS UP. That on top of seeing the lynch flip could secure our victory. HTS: I'm going to be honest, I added 3% on HTS. Is HTS being helpful? Yes. DO I think she is capable of being helpful but also steering us in the wrong direction without us knowing it. YES! 100 times yes! HTS you are very good at this game. I will probably always be suspicious of you when in doubt. Same goes with my sister... lolz Gum/Scott: I didn't add much of anything on Gum/Scott. Honestly this is my read. Gum comes in playing 1 game before? Sees he's town. Doesn't care tooo much. He sees how everyones bashing people who can't scumread well (LS,waffle,me) and says PEACE. If he WAS mafia, the lack of suspicion despite him being inactive would prob. be enough to keep him in the game. Scott comes in and sees what he is. He sees the dire situation we are in and digs deep. He reads 58 pages of debating and makes some very good cases, trying to make an impact. All that being said, since gum never voted for anyone that died or get voted for by anyone that died, he is the townist one of us all in my model. Huh. Interesting. All that hating on inactives and got 0 votes. Instead we kill our vet and another towny both who were more active despite all the inactive hating. ME! I hope you saw me on the lists. Move me around 3% as much as you will. If you don't like %, then pretend they are points. This is a game of golf, towniest people have the low scores. I HAVE been using numbers. Without a detailed description of my "crap" I could see why you would be suspicious. I AM TOWN (I should probably say that more...). If you lynch me, I hope you remember how I act for if we play again. I probably won't act much different, besides the scumread thing as a punishment (that got a lot of hate lolz). Anyways, before I call it a night I wanted to talk about silver's claim. I believe her. She wasn't in trouble really, and it was a good time to claim. If there was no cop, mafia wouldn't randomly claim in my opinion. It doesn't exactly help them to have their (probably) least suspicious person claim cop with over a day to go. It could be a ploy, but it seems like you would be taking a lot of risk for not much of a reward. Plus if this is a newb game, I could see the moderator at least having veteran and cop (and medic too if that's real). More roles help us learn right? Learning might be as important as balance in this game right? O.K. work is tomorrow for me. Gotta pay the bills lol It is raining outside, who knows I might get a delay/snowday! If not, I will try to check at b-fast and lunch as well as get home before EOD. IF all fails, I'll try to step out of work to read and vote in real fast if something crazy happens. If I find you all lynch trained me, then pretend I made this giant rant about how none of you can make any reads before you see I flip town. I would also say "better dead here then dead at the core." It would have no quotes on people or scumreads either....lolz My vote is for Shining (but I think he's town!) for now. I really am unsure of this vote, please try to convince me that this isn't a good vote. I will change it if I think it is a good idea. Top switch targets for me would be Exo and HTS. I hope this clears some things up when you are thinking about my thoughts. Mesa sorry for the brain power you probably lost trying to get through it all lol On January 13 2015 07:55 jarjarbinks wrote: How sure are we that there is a cop in this game? Jack! Where are you? You're supposed to like save the day and stuff! There's 5 people voting for me and 3 are "town"? You guys might think its right but ITS NOT. I AM TOWN. You guys so sure silver's cop? Ummm...weren't you sure Silver is Cop? I bolded the area in the first quote for you. You go from mentioning early there may be a cop, to believing Silver is the cop, to now questioning it, and by doing so, questioning yourself. Also, in that first post, you vote me after saying you really think I'm town and need to be convinced. You've also voted me for lynch before. Now I'm town to you but you still vote me, anyway. You have backtracked on a lot of points throughout this game. Instead, you like to try to play on emotions with the subtle sarcasm and jokes and the back-n-forths with RSo and Tube. That is a scummy trait. You're not even close to bleeding Town but you keep yelling I'M TOWN, I'M TOWN instead of making a case against an alternate lynch. Dude, your alternate lynch is me and instead of pursuing me, you Town me. Lolwut? I put my vote up already but for no surprises. ##Vote: JarJarBinks | ||
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which is actually less an implication and more an outright statement given my question.
