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On December 19 2014 10:07 sicklucker wrote:
Heres holyflares mafia strategy. Lynch a team mate or gb if he has the numbers he has the perfect excuse to change his vote and save himself. Tomorrow if templars lynched as town or mafia regardless he gets a free lynch on gb because he will kill two votes against himself. Then it will be lylo with 2 or 3 mafia with a potential kp present in there hands. He will have gained a little town cred in the process.
Alright, question for not only SL but other vets who've played with HF as scum - basically you lot are saying his strategy to win as scum is 1) bus people as needed and 2) eliminate votes against himself in some way. Am I understanding you correctly? Where are you getting the "free lynch on GB" or do you mean he's going to NK GB?
Also SL, using what you just said, the two people who died, I know Bats wanted to kill HF, but I just went through Froggy's filter, and I don't see any anti-HF sentiment in there. I see twice on page 2 of the filter, he says he wants to lynch GB over HF.
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On December 19 2014 09:32 rsoultin wrote:
lian obviously is a big question mark. His reasoning is absolutely non-existent, and he refuses to give any. I also don't trust anyone who seems to be planning out his lynches in advance. even some of the most stubborn here will change a vote as the situation changes, but not him
I believe it was Bats who said he's like this all the time. Basically the opposite of Kush in a way. Still unhelpful regardless.
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On December 19 2014 09:14 GlowingBear wrote:
I would be reading you as town after the case on Templar, HF. That is, if you weren't holyflare. Your scum play is unpredictable and I know you are capable of bussing your whole team to gain town cred.
So you're saying that Holyflare is scum for being Holyflare? You don't say...
Seriously though, GB, I am trying to understand the anti-Holyflare sentiment. What would convince me of a scum HF is a game where the signs were similar to what he's playing now, so I can see the capability in his current gamestyle.
Ritoky tried to use Hearthstone Mafia as a meta against him but if anything I read his filter in that game and I did not see at all the same signs for his behaviour in this game - in fact that filter supported a town HF upon reading it. Granted that's only one game of the many he's played. Surely someone here can give some of us newer players concrete examples where his gameplay is similar now. At least you should understand why some of us are not buying HF as scum, not at the moment.
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On December 19 2014 10:07 sicklucker wrote:
Heres holyflares mafia strategy. Lynch a team mate or gb if he has the numbers he has the perfect excuse to change his vote and save himself. Tomorrow if templars lynched as town or mafia regardless he gets a free lynch on gb because he will kill two votes against himself. Then it will be lylo with 2 or 3 mafia with a potential kp present in there hands. He will have gained a little town cred in the process.
Complete speculation.
I hate complete speculation. You have completely nothing backing up this statement.
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Oats, can we get some reads from you, please? I agree with a good number of your comments...but at the same time countering SL is kinda obvious anyway. The guy doesn't think.
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FYI: My other half is in bed, and I am working at home tomorrow. I have north of another hour if anyone wants to have a serious discussion on anything. Normally not up this late, but I worked 15 hours today so...
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Okay, HTS, please give me your thoughts.
I've been going over HFs case on Templar...have you had a chance to look at it yet?
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On December 17 2014 11:25 Vivax wrote:
Basing all your reads on night actions and setup speculation presuming you knew what they were is veeeery bad play. On the other hand you 180 ° on HF knowing that scum preferred voting Kelsier over him (might be that he asked to be bussed while being in hospital cause he couldn't play though, so his buddies could harvest some cred, that's also pretty speculative).
Ultimately it's better to focus on the actual plays rather than all this stuff, although given the difficulty in reading HF's plays it might be worth giving it a shot in his case.
On December 18 2014 13:32 Vivax wrote:
The wifom isnt crazy, you either believe they got killed for what they said or cause scum wants us to believe what they said. If you ever played scum you should know it's almost always for the first reason, so not as wifomy as you make it to be.
I'm voting HF.
On December 18 2014 13:50 Vivax wrote:
Yes I look at what the NKs said most of the times. It's the one part of the day where you can try to see the game through the eyes of scum. Especially when you can assume it wasn't a bluesnipe.
FF has a green check so I'm not lynching him until we lynched all the other amount of scum and know for sure that a godfather didn't flip.
Just backtracked to Vivax's use of nightkills. Operative parts in bold. This is looking contradictory...unless he's justifying the fact looking at HF as the reason to look at nightkills.
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Rasputin, HF's case on Templar is checking out. I dove into it during dinner, and that combined with GB's comment on the Tubesock tunnel makes him look really bad. As it stands I have no issues changing votes.
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On December 19 2014 10:21 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 19 2014 10:07 sicklucker wrote:
Heres holyflares mafia strategy. Lynch a team mate or gb if he has the numbers he has the perfect excuse to change his vote and save himself. Tomorrow if templars lynched as town or mafia regardless he gets a free lynch on gb because he will kill two votes against himself. Then it will be lylo with 2 or 3 mafia with a potential kp present in there hands. He will have gained a little town cred in the process. Alright, question for not only SL but other vets who've played with HF as scum - basically you lot are saying his strategy to win as scum is 1) bus people as needed and 2) eliminate votes against himself in some way. Am I understanding you correctly? Where are you getting the "free lynch on GB" or do you mean he's going to NK GB? Also SL, using what you just said, the two people who died, I know Bats wanted to kill HF, but I just went through Froggy's filter, and I don't see any anti-HF sentiment in there. I see twice on page 2 of the filter, he says he wants to lynch GB over HF.
On December 18 2014 08:25 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On December 18 2014 04:55 froggynoddy wrote:
So I have been thinking. I think Mafia had to have the remaining presents as it makes no sense for Rit to guess with a 50% chance of being wrong and leavig yourself vulnerable to a counterclaim. I feel like the only logical play for Ritovky was to claim vig-present to hide a mass-murderer shot and confuse town.
This must (you'd think) have been vetted by his scum-buddies. This means that scum should have had both presents as otherwise the risk would be too great.
So I guess my question is... how does FF have a present as town? This is why froggy got lynched btw and why I town read him. What he said is true and means hf is mafia. Also he says he doesint want to vote gb. Gb is clearly mafias mislynch target so killing him is one vote in their favor. He might be wrong about wrong about some of it but not that mafia has both presents. Me and him both agree with this Ls please change your vote from gb to holyflare if you think im town. Sheep me Both nks were votes against holyflare. Both nightkills would not have voted gb. Holyflare is mafia.
Hes basically saying hf and ff are scum here so he would have voted hf. It makes perfect sense accept the ff part could be explained by mafia having a rb and knowing they have a kill present still live.
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" I think Mafia had to have the remaining presents as it makes no sense for Rit to guess with a 50% chance of being wrong and leavig yourself vulnerable to a counterclaim"
That means he thinks hf and ff are fakeclaiming, that means hes voting hf. Its not super obvious so that explains why mafia killed. This is really simple stuff dont let the great froggy die in vien.
And if you think about it HES COMPLETELY RIGHT THIS PROVES WITHOUT ANY DISPUTE HF IS MAFIA. Ritoky claimed a present. He would only do this if mafia has both because dandred died with one.
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On December 19 2014 10:54 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2014 11:25 Vivax wrote:
Basing all your reads on night actions and setup speculation presuming you knew what they were is veeeery bad play. On the other hand you 180 ° on HF knowing that scum preferred voting Kelsier over him (might be that he asked to be bussed while being in hospital cause he couldn't play though, so his buddies could harvest some cred, that's also pretty speculative).
Ultimately it's better to focus on the actual plays rather than all this stuff, although given the difficulty in reading HF's plays it might be worth giving it a shot in his case. Show nested quote +On December 18 2014 13:32 Vivax wrote:
The wifom isnt crazy, you either believe they got killed for what they said or cause scum wants us to believe what they said. If you ever played scum you should know it's almost always for the first reason, so not as wifomy as you make it to be.
I'm voting HF. Show nested quote +On December 18 2014 13:50 Vivax wrote:
Yes I look at what the NKs said most of the times. It's the one part of the day where you can try to see the game through the eyes of scum. Especially when you can assume it wasn't a bluesnipe.
FF has a green check so I'm not lynching him until we lynched all the other amount of scum and know for sure that a godfather didn't flip.
Just backtracked to Vivax's use of nightkills. Operative parts in bold. This is looking contradictory...unless he's justifying the fact looking at HF as the reason to look at nightkills.
There's a difference between me analysing what the dead guys said and GB claiming to know what scum's exact actions at night were to prove a point, which that first post is about and you would know if you read in context.
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On December 19 2014 10:45 rsoultin wrote:
Oats, can we get some reads from you, please? I agree with a good number of your comments...but at the same time countering SL is kinda obvious anyway. The guy doesn't think.
hf 2bad2bescum
lian scum
vivax scum
gb not scum
xata scum.
about this for now yeah.
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I dunno about tubesock, he seems super oblivious to the stuff that hes done.
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Guys can you just sheep me here Im confident I have this figured out. When you realize HF is mafia and gb is town for the information hes brought against him this game is actually winnable. If you guys keep running around like chickens with no heads this game becomes unwinnable.
Rputin I ignore your case because I know gb is town. I can only really prove this when hf flips mafia. Can you explain why mine, froggys, and gb's case doesint tell you hf is mafia? You keep using the same excuse "its present related". But the facts are mafia wont claim a present unless they are sure it cant be counter claimed. This means hf is 100% lieing about his already sketchy claim.
Like how more obvious can this get? Im running out of posts and your completely ignoring the facts. If your town you need to realize the truth because when hf flips mafia were going to have to lynch you as of now and that might lose us this game.
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On December 19 2014 11:07 Vivax wrote:
There's a difference between me analysing what the dead guys said and GB claiming to know what scum's exact actions at night were to prove a point, which that first post is about and you would know if you read in context.
Re-read that post, fair enough. As I've said before, there's a lot of WIFOM flying around, which I find confusing as I'd been told to generally disregard. General question then, in what situations do you lot consider it more acceptable to use night actions for proper analysis? On certain players? Or do you really do it that often? I mean I can understand using it as a supplement to other evidence, but when that's the only thing do you find yourself being that much more accurate with your targets?
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On December 19 2014 11:17 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On December 19 2014 10:45 rsoultin wrote:
Oats, can we get some reads from you, please? I agree with a good number of your comments...but at the same time countering SL is kinda obvious anyway. The guy doesn't think. hf 2bad2bescum lian scum vivax scum gb not scum xata scum. about this for now yeah.
These reads are terrible
100% mafia if hf flips mafia. Makes me feel better about xata and a little bit worried about gb. Ty for helping town out come again
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I'm going to stop asking SL questions at this point, since he prefers not to answer them.
I've been looking at HFs case, too. There are some issues with it, unfortunately. I'm not saying it's a shit case, cause it's not, but it's certainly not open and shut.
- RNG reads more like a joke/trolling...so not sure of the significance here, unless it's that he happened to pick KSC from it
- while I agree that his Santa posts were mostly summary and repeat analysis, there still was some analysis, which HF is downplaying...the remark on the list, for instance, specifically referenced froggy's placement; it wasn't just a list
- the point on slam and bunnies both spewing posts...slam doesn't seem to be a big content poster anyway. ninjabunnies I haven't really played with, but if she doesn't play like slam, then comparing the two isn't necessary and isn't really a double-standard
- i'm also not really seeing the issue with Templar agreeing with the case against HF except HF doesn't like it...since the post he agreed with was speaking specifically to how HF came to read bunnies, not the fact that he scumread her
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That said, though I'm finding HFs actual analysis a little dodgy, there's not a ton of original content in Templar's filter apart from the odd comment/question here or there. Some of the questions do seem to be in the interest of exposing logic pitfalls and progressing the thread...but that's not hard to fake.
As for the meta...that's borderline, too. Having reads on everyone and posting thoughts on every player is actually the same thing. The biggest difference is between lurking and posting a lot...though really I'm not sure why Templar is bringing up his meta at all if it's not solidly indicative of anything. That alone is scummy.
Tube is also a very easy scumread to latch onto, especially with the "scum slip" that had the whole thread jumping down his throat. An easy mislynch if he's town. So I can see the argument there. And if Templar, Rit and KSC (ironically the only bolded ones in his first lynch) are all scum, and HF isn't scum, it's got to be better for mafia to have a run-off between two towns over one between a scum and a town or two scums. Apart from that, I don't see much reason to pressure Tube during that vote. Better to save it for later.
All-in-all...Templar could be scum, but I wouldn't call him my top scumread.
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On December 19 2014 11:18 sicklucker wrote:
Guys can you just sheep me here Im confident I have this figured out. When you realize HF is mafia and gb is town for the information hes brought against him this game is actually winnable. If you guys keep running around like chickens with no heads this game becomes unwinnable.
Rputin I ignore your case because I know gb is town. I can only really prove this when hf flips mafia. Can you explain why mine, froggys, and gb's case doesint tell you hf is mafia? You keep using the same excuse "its present related". But the facts are mafia wont claim a present unless they are sure it cant be counter claimed. This means hf is 100% lieing about his already sketchy claim.
Like how more obvious can this get? Im running out of posts and your completely ignoring the facts. If your town you need to realize the truth because when hf flips mafia were going to have to lynch you as of now and that might lose us this game.
If I had a present I wouldn't counter-claim, because I'd want to use what was in it without getting shot or RBd. If I had a present I wouldn't really be interested in drawing attention to myself in relation to presents at all. Assuming mafia doesn't have all of them, it's not the worst way to find out where the presents are at and remove that possible threat. So no, I don't agree with your point. Sorry. And you threatening to lynch me after HF (who I believe is town anyway, or at least more likely to be town than a few in this thread) isn't going to sway me. I'm not acting scummy and I'm not afraid of being lynched. -shrugs-
I'm also not much of a sheep. As soon as someone starts throwing around the 100% mafia stuff I tend to tune out because the only possible way to know that for sure is if you're santa and have a blue check or you're scum, in which case I'd be dumb to listen to you anyway.
Also, apologies for the snark. I wrote that before seeing your response.
The "knowing GB is town" thing is a BS answer though. How can you possibly know that, SL? You do realize you've been more or less parroting him all game?
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On December 19 2014 11:17 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On December 19 2014 10:45 rsoultin wrote:
Oats, can we get some reads from you, please? I agree with a good number of your comments...but at the same time countering SL is kinda obvious anyway. The guy doesn't think. hf 2bad2bescum lian scum vivax scum gb not scum xata scum. about this for now yeah.
Do you mind explaining your reads some? I can guess but I'd rather you just tell me what you're thinking.
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EPT
