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On October 15 2014 11:12 WaveofShadow wrote:One specific section really struck me though and I'd very much like to get opinions on this. Show nested quote +
To me, this says that Jeff is sacrificial scum: the scum (read: Soniv) know he's going down eventually, but they're going to try and put off a lynch on him until they get as many lurky town-peeps as possible. Definitely Coma, but I don't know if it ends there. Maybe Soniv rounds back on Alz (but here my reasoning gets less event-based, so let's avoid mere ideas).
This is an entirely new POV and shows that Asmo is attempting to think about connections between scummers. Now some people including myself have pointed out that pre-flip association isn't particularly useful, and often results in confirmation bias leading you and others astray. That however, isn't my main point. My biggest problem (and it is literally a problem, because I'm not sure I can give a completely unbiased answer to it): Which alignment posts something like the bolded? Who is thinking about leaving a scum to be sacrificed? Is this something that is going on in the scum QT that Asmo is trying to 'bring to light?' Is he just thinking really critically? I am not trying to lead on any answers here, but I want opinions. I think that section of the post is the key to cracking Asmo one way or another.
This is difficult for me to answer. I really thought asmo was a bit scummy earlier, but his last few posts have been decent. He is actively attempting to look at things in different perspectives, which is nice. The fact that he pointed out soniv might be attempting to get me back on his side by pressuring Req(and I was the only one who wanted people to look at Req), was nice to me. I thought about it as well, but I discarded the information because it seems fairly complex for no real reward. What's the point of pocketing me when I can't save him? I think the scenario he thought up, is basically only possible in extreme circumstances. It's overly complicated, and that's more of a town tell to me than it is a scum tell.
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On October 15 2014 12:33 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
What im trying to show is that these "prod posts" are useless ways for people to seem helpful while never playing any cards. I think we should stop accepting these as legitimate discussion starters.
But you aren't showing that. You are showing that some people refuse to take those posts seriously. And you know what happens to those people? They get lynched because they don't bring in any new information.
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On October 15 2014 11:28 ketchup wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2014 11:00 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
You guys are absolutely tunnelvisioning on me being scum.
I'm not.
There are less reasons than before, but I think a couple certain people have good reasons and then other newbs misconstrue these reasons as clear evidence that I'm scum.
Also why am I seen as a lurker? I lurked on day 1, but other than that I've been posting whenever possible. I have one of the longest filters. It's not Wave-Ketchup status but it's certainly not Coma-Mordek status. Your filter means nothing, which is part of the problem. You think just because you have 5 pages of posts that are somewhere between 1 -3 sentences it means you are actively helping town? It doesn't. You want to look less scummy? Stop doing scummy things. Again, start trying to ping out people you think are scum, and pressuring them to respond. I admit that you have other priorities, but it doesn't mean I can let you get away with the way you post. Answer these questions for me: Why are you not scum? What town moves/plays have you made to help town find scum? Those are the biggest questions I have for you, and others probably have as well.
So again, answer this for me ghandi. Why should I not vote on you?
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On October 15 2014 12:42 ketchup wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2014 11:28 ketchup wrote:On October 15 2014 11:00 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
You guys are absolutely tunnelvisioning on me being scum.
I'm not.
There are less reasons than before, but I think a couple certain people have good reasons and then other newbs misconstrue these reasons as clear evidence that I'm scum.
Also why am I seen as a lurker? I lurked on day 1, but other than that I've been posting whenever possible. I have one of the longest filters. It's not Wave-Ketchup status but it's certainly not Coma-Mordek status. Your filter means nothing, which is part of the problem. You think just because you have 5 pages of posts that are somewhere between 1 -3 sentences it means you are actively helping town? It doesn't. You want to look less scummy? Stop doing scummy things. Again, start trying to ping out people you think are scum, and pressuring them to respond. I admit that you have other priorities, but it doesn't mean I can let you get away with the way you post. Answer these questions for me: Why are you not scum? What town moves/plays have you made to help town find scum? Those are the biggest questions I have for you, and others probably have as well. So again, answer this for me ghandi. Why should I not vote on you?
Quoting myself for the third time. Basically what have you done to help?
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Here are a few questions that I am currently having:
Why is Wave jumping on the mordek voting that was started by someone he feels is so heavily scummy that he has been after him since day 1?
What's with the late day 2 vote switch by wave? I mean he could pressure mordek without voting for him.
What's with OWB's jump on mordek as well?
How did the mordek get three quick votes in the span of 1 hour?
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On October 16 2014 04:39 WaveofShadow wrote:Eh, I don't think people understand the meaning or use of a pressure vote. Oh well. ##unvoteVote/read on mordek was never real tbh, but I wanted to see who I could make do stuff. Only person to jump was owb, though that's pretty interesting sine he's been doing it alllllllll game. Show nested quote +On October 16 2014 04:02 onlywonderboy wrote:On October 16 2014 03:52 jcarlsoniv wrote:On October 16 2014 03:34 Alaric wrote:Soniv:+ Show Spoiler +About the key thing, this is how I view it (from reading today's filters only):
- before Ghandi switched and I voted, it was 6-5 for you. A tie would be against Ghandi I think, haven't checked hard, but iirc owb has the oldest post, and he isn't likely to switch, so for you to die people needed to switch. ComaDose certainly won't because he seems convinced that killing Ghandi will somehow clear him (and I think however Ghandi flips there are strong arguments against him either way, part of why I don't think lynching Ghandi will produce much), Cixah and ketchup don't look like they would either (ketchup offered a hand but I dunno how firm he is).
That means that Wave, because he tends to be listened to, and because he's one of the rare people not completely set yet, has the power to either force a tie or break it (even more so had he known I'd vote against you, that was 6-6 but Ghandi switched while I typed).
As for lynching you, sure there's a risk you'll flip green.
But not only do I think it's a tiny risk, we also stand to gain much more from your flipping (whether red or green, already said I'm coming for Asmo if you flip green myself) than Ghandi's. Both your posting has been a bit poor today, but I could easily attribute that to both of you being in a kinda deadlock for more of the day; and if given more liberty, I'm much more afraid of you leading us astray than I'd be of Ghandi. Even if he's scum he doesn't push us toward wrong lynches (that pretty much everyone ignores him doesn't help).
As of now we can't know which one of you is red, or if you aren't even both red (I don't see it as likely but it's not impossible), but I'm pretty damn sure one of you has to be scum, and your flip will give us more stuff to catch the remaining 2-3.
Add to that that I won't be around for the deadline in case of last minute shenanigans/twist (if you want to claim do it in the next 4 hours), and that I didn't think the situation could change (I'll admit I'm wrong, the new mordek wagon proved that with a perfect timing, uh), and I didn't see the point to fish for "maybe scum" instead of "very probably scum + info on the others".
If you give me a better lynch? I'll bow, and I'll switch to that. But my reasoning was (and still is, unless twists like a mordek slip or something) that it's between Ghandi and you tonight, and that you are the "better" lynch. I'm so confused how you think my posting has been bad today. You had a town read on me D1, and my posting was so much worse D1, and I'm happy to be the first to admit that. Once again, I'm feeling like my entire play today has been largely ignored. I have tried to hand you guys a better lynch, and it was completely passed off as everyone giving Req a pass for being Req. I also now believe that Jeff is scum (something I did not think was true D1), and I've tried to push him as well. Is this going to be the theme of the game? Every day it's going to be Jeff vs. someone that ends up flipping town, only to continue it on the next day? You think you're going to get information from my flip, but all you'll find out is how god damn wrong you've been and how much time you've all wasted. On October 16 2014 03:31 mordek wrote:
I like how Soniv dodged the claim or your getting lynched questions too. Admittedly he could be in meetings but let's not forget. ? What did I dodge? I can get behind what Soniv is saying here. I've already said I think he's played better than Jeff during Day 2 so between the two I'm still going to vote Jeff. In fact ##Unvote
##Vote GhandiEAGLE
The Jeff flip will give us insight into Soniv's alignment and we can decide whether or not we trust him from there. If they are both mafia it would be a pretty masterful bus. This is pretty untrue. ketchup, what do you think? Who should it be today?
I kept my vote where it should be today. I think soniv is helpful while ghandi is not.
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I've repeatedly asked ghandi on how he sees himself helping town, but he has yet to respond.
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If people are still wondering, and haven't noticed by my entirely static vote on GhandiEagle. I think GhandiEagle should be the lynch today more so than Soniv. Soniv lynch vote is too difficult to justify at this point in the game for me. I think Soniv can be really helpful for town later on. I want to take that risk on keeping soniv alive for later. I do NOT think the same can be said about GhandiEagle.
On October 16 2014 04:39 WaveofShadow wrote:
ketchup, what do you think? Who should it be today?
Wave, you asked me who it should be today, I will go for GhandiEagle.
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On October 16 2014 06:23 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
Also, to ketchup, what do we actually learn by lynching me? Just wanting you to articulate your thought process more so I can talk it over more easily.
Basically, I've asked you direct questions multiple times, and you haven't answered them for me. What does town gain from keeping you alive? You haven't answered this for me.
It really doesn't gain anything in my perspective. Right now, I feel you are more of a liability than anyone else in the game. You are not clear about your real scum list. Before today, you didn't really mention soniv too much. Now, you are just jumping on the soniv bandwagon while pretending others are doing the same thing. Other people have actually had their own thoughts and opinions on the game. You give me nothing. You add nothing to the discussion. At one point ,you thought Wave was scummy, but I didn't see you trying to do anything about it then or even now. Basically, all you do is deflect.
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On October 16 2014 06:23 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 16 2014 06:21 ketchup wrote:If people are still wondering, and haven't noticed by my entirely static vote on GhandiEagle. I think GhandiEagle should be the lynch today more so than Soniv. Soniv lynch vote is too difficult to justify at this point in the game for me. I think Soniv can be really helpful for town later on. I want to take that risk on keeping soniv alive for later. I do NOT think the same can be said about GhandiEagle. On October 16 2014 04:39 WaveofShadow wrote:
ketchup, what do you think? Who should it be today? Wave, you asked me who it should be today, I will go for GhandiEagle. Despite the fact that soniv is content with his output and helpfulness for the day and Jeff is still trying?
If the mordek vote pressure is him trying, then what is the soniv vote on Req? That was soniv deflecting while jeff tries? I don't understand your separation. It's all the same thing. Either both are still trying or both are deflecting. Both have done similar things for their defense. Soniv's defense to me was at least showing he didn't care he was under pressure, while Jeff just bandwagons on Soniv. Soniv actually attempted to get another scummier read rather than just Jeff. You know what Ghandi has done? Nothing. He hasn't brought new information to town.
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On October 16 2014 06:40 GhandiEAGLE wrote:Show nested quote +On October 16 2014 06:35 ketchup wrote:On October 16 2014 06:23 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 16 2014 06:21 ketchup wrote:If people are still wondering, and haven't noticed by my entirely static vote on GhandiEagle. I think GhandiEagle should be the lynch today more so than Soniv. Soniv lynch vote is too difficult to justify at this point in the game for me. I think Soniv can be really helpful for town later on. I want to take that risk on keeping soniv alive for later. I do NOT think the same can be said about GhandiEagle. On October 16 2014 04:39 WaveofShadow wrote:
ketchup, what do you think? Who should it be today? Wave, you asked me who it should be today, I will go for GhandiEagle. Despite the fact that soniv is content with his output and helpfulness for the day and Jeff is still trying? If the mordek vote pressure is him trying, then what is the soniv vote on Req? That was soniv deflecting while jeff tries? I don't understand your separation. It's all the same thing. Either both are still trying or both are deflecting. Both have done similar things for their defense. Soniv's defense to me was at least showing he didn't care he was under pressure, while Jeff just bandwagons on Soniv. Soniv actually attempted to get another scummier read rather than just Jeff. You know what Ghandi has done? Nothing. He hasn't brought new information to town. Not caring while under pressure is a playstyle of the person, not a sign of innocence or guilt. That's ridiculous. I'm also not just bandwagonning on Soniv, and i think you're making a huge mistake by tunnelvisioning on that. What would YOU consider new information, if I haven't brought any? Do tell, Ketchup.
New information is basically getting new information by doing something or bringing in a new interaction between the players.
For Soniv there are two things:
1.) I might have over analyzed certain interactions in my Soniv argument, and he points it out fairly simply that it could be seen in that manner, but it wasn't it. I think in a game like this, I prefer simplicity over complications. So, I am okay with taking this defense straight up.
2.) Similarly, I think Req's posting after Soniv put pressure on him was genuine. I think he doesn't speak in that manner unless something was really bugging him. I disagree with Soniv that Req is scummy now because to fabricate that type of post is extremely difficult. So, I give points to Soniv for causing Req to make that type of post. I do apologize that Req thought he had to make that type of post though. Again, I know Soniv dislikes this, but it is actually in favor of both of them that Req made that post. Basically Scum Soniv has zero reasons to push Req that far that it proves Req's more innocent than not.
For you, Jeff, I see nothing. Point them out to me, and I will reconsider my vote.
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On October 16 2014 06:51 Requizen wrote:Show nested quote +On October 16 2014 06:47 WaveofShadow wrote:
K, read it.
Not as much lols to be had as I thought there might be (though I wonder at what point your continued refusal to see me as town eventually makes me lynch you).
You did forget to consider the scenario where all three of us are town. Not sure why you don't talk about that at all. Also not sure why you're absolutely certain 2 of us are scum rather than one. Like...the analysis is decent if you had more to base it off of but there's so much speculation interspersed in there based on very little. I dunno what else to tell you in that regard man. I really think one of us is going to feel VERY silly at some point in this game, and I highly doubt that person is me. As I posted above, it's fairly statistical that 1/3 of the three of you is scum, given Cixah is IC and I would not put myself in the calculation. That's a numbers game, which is the closest thing to "hard evidence" that there is in this game (of course, with the prior knowledge the Statistics are not in any way a perfect tool, it's about as good or better than feelings). And given the interactions, I find it highly unlikely that only one of you is Scum, except in the situation that Ghandi is the only one out of you that is. That said, if we vote Ghandi and he flips RED, I don't feel that this clears you or Soniv. I just feel that the Soinv - Wave - Ghandi scenario is more likely than the Soinv - Wave - Ghandi or Soinv - Wave - Ghandi scenarios.
Just re-reading the last page. If the last sentence is true, why do you still have your vote on Soniv over Ghandi?
That was going to be my post before soniv claimed. QQ
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augh im so bad. I'm sorry everyone. I just realized I made a mistake again, and edited my post 
I have prayed to the god mod that he will spare me one more time.
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On October 16 2014 07:12 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
Well, I guess Wave was right, someone is going to end up looking like the idiot here.
If Soniv is no longer scummer number 1, then I'm going to stay with whomever I think is second. It was OWB until my last exchange with Mordek, which convinced me. If I'm going to die, then y'all need a bit of a blueprint for when I flip town.
Mordek is guilty as fuck. I've gone over the reasons many times.
Coma gives nothing but "vote ghandi" for some reason or another, looking into him will be good, but do note that I'm not sure scum would bank so hard on someone they knew was town, and risking looking like a chump the next day.
Asmo is flippy-floppy, and has managed to avoid contributing repeatedly. It somehow turns out people ask him for reads, he gives a very political answer, and then he disappears for awhile until he wants to switch his vote. That's sketchy.
Look into Wave for starting this whole anti-ghandi bandwagon, and if it's not Soniv or I then Wave is much more likely than I expected. This is an interesting development, especially for you Req.
I wish I could pin a third, but I can't really decide. OWB and Mordek for me.
Also, has anyone ever faked a blue reveal? Is that kosher, or is it as stupid as you'd think?
##Vote: Mordek
Blue fake claim is possible, but usually it won't happen this early or in the manner that it did. Basically, he has a very low chance of surviving past day 3 or he might even die night 2 depending on what scum chooses to do.
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On October 16 2014 07:19 WaveofShadow wrote:
I'm feeling particularly weak right now.
You guys are free to yell at me really loudly for this, but anybody wanna switch to Coma?
I'm up for it actually. I was thinking of it. But ask soniv + cixah imo.
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On October 16 2014 07:20 GhandiEAGLE wrote:Show nested quote +On October 16 2014 07:19 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Even if we lose, I'm glad it's by killing Jeff. Kid, you've done shit all this entire game. And the fact that so many people ignored most of my play this entire day is the sad part. Nice. Very good environment for the first timers. Conducive to learning and continued play. Losing sucks though, wish I woulda won my first game :/
Well here's a tip. If you are going to die as town, die fighting. Don't give up because you still have 2 hours.
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At this point in the game, I'm all up for taking that shot in the dark on ComaDose
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But yes, I'll leave the decision to Cixah + soniv because they are at least our two confirmed towns now.
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On October 16 2014 07:26 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
Also seriously guys, Mordek >>> Coma in suspicion right now. They both add nothing but Mordek adds nothing more suspiciously than Coma does.
I feel more suspicious of coma than mordek.
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EPT
