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He says "if we both scum, then more townies outside of us, so more people interested in investigating other people than us both", I guess.
Which is pretty much the point I made when I avoided the bandwagons so far.
I'm still unsure about Req. I mean, with the new knowledge today he's potentially less trustworthy, but I have no idea how good he could be at manipulating us. And since his posting is standard Req (and I stand by this) it'd be hard to call me "playing a role" atm.
Actually it could work if you said that Req has actually been feeling fine but pretending he was "pissed/sensitive Req" at least today, but because even that Req is in line with how he behaves when he does feel like that, either he's genuine, or he's really good at playing pretend. For 1) I don't believe it, 2) isn't that WIFOM territory? Req manipulating us because he's aware of how identical his posting is to how he behaves in these situations?
I'm not saying he gets a free pass. I'm saying when I think about it and look at his posting, and what I [think I] know of him, I don't believe him capable of such manipulation.
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On October 16 2014 05:03 WaveofShadow wrote:
Soniv did you claim VT?
He said he wasn't 3P, and he certainly won't claim scum. So I guess he reserves the right to claim blue somehow?
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On October 16 2014 05:18 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 16 2014 05:17 Alaric wrote:On October 16 2014 05:03 WaveofShadow wrote:
Soniv did you claim VT? He said he wasn't 3P, and he certainly won't claim scum. So I guess he reserves the right to claim blue somehow? I will say this much, if he claims blue with very little time left that equates to a scumclaim for me at this point---it is absolutely not in town's interest to force the rest of town into a vote last minute without giving time to consider options.
Wouldn't most people (including you) most toward Ghandi anyway if he did that?
The conservative play (which isn't to say it's the best, see the prisonier's dilemma) would be to either stay on him regardless, or move onto the next "most guilty" target, since you can't be sure whether the others will switch, or where they'll go if they do.
I don't know, my own read on Req is very subjective (I guess it's what Soniv called the posting-meta), but there was the start of a bandwagon on ComaDose at the beginning of the day, which gained some traction. Wouldn't he have made a better "deflection" target than Requizen then?
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ComaDose, for reasons stated in my filter.
Basically, he wasn't "actively" suspicious at first, I only pressed him because he didn't post much and all he did was vote against Ghandi, then make posts that said "I believe Ghandi is scum, but I'm not sure! Maybe! He could just be noob, you never know!". No real direction, especially because the "Ghandi you're bad and it doesn't matter if it's bad scum or bad town because we lynch both" posts were so prevalent it wasn't hard to be wary of him.
Afterwards he had these posts, were he basically went back-and-forth between Soniv and Ghandi because refusing to commit because they seemed at odd with each other.
Why has he commited now?
Because he was pressured and claimed that flipping Ghandi would prove him town. Basically deflecting blame under pressure and adopting a "I want to save my hide" over "I want to lynch scum" stance (the way his post reads, he'd lynch Ghandi even if he believed he was townie and a green flip would save him, it just so happened Ghandi was scum in his opinion... of course that's not what ComaDose said, but when you get such a vibe from a post then it's not a good sign).
Actually, upon re-reading his filter, he also made little references to possible collusion (eg. a bus) without naming it, and in his wishy-washy "I'm not sure, it's maybe this, or its opposite, I don't know, maybe I should try something entirely different next" style.
So if Ghandi flips red, we have a likely (and easy) bus, especially with the "confirmed townie" claim he attaches to it. If Ghandi flips green, then it's a push for the easy mislynch since everyone was on Ghandi's ass at one point or another.
Whatever happens ComaDose reads scummy to me, and that's part of why I decided to go Soniv over Ghandi: I don't need the latter's death to be distrustful of ComaDose, while Soniv's flip is about as likely to be red, and will tell me some about Asmodeus.
Asmo is still wishy-washy to me, because my doubts were mainly washed by the cases he made. 'cept, if it ends up being him sending a town Soniv to the gallows, it'll kind of invalidate the good points he had (especially as both against Moonbear then Soniv, it was his posts that started the bandwagons) and I'll come after him unless he has extremely good reasons for it.
Ghandi still very high on my list. If Soniv flips green, I'll probably turn back to Ghandi too (again, I wouldn't have qualms against lynching Ghandi tonight, I just believe Soniv to be a better one overall).
I'll admit I have paid very little attention to Alzadar and Mordek's filters. Haven't reread Ketchup's either apart from my earlier post to see who was susceptible to drop Ghandi for Soniv, but he's so much town that I don't feel like I need to pay attention to it. I'll look into the other 2 tomorrow.
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0K I missed like a page and a half of posts. I don't think what was posted while I typed will change the context of my scum reads, but brb catching up.
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On October 16 2014 06:05 ComaDose wrote:
Im reading along im just not sure about anything.
really hoping im right about ghandi.
asmo would still be my third probably for the following hes been doing since he followed to moonbears death.
You're never sure about anything. Except that you want Ghandi dead because "when he flips red I'll be confirmed townie, more genuine than Cixah!". Your only other read was Soniv and then you said "but not both so back to just Ghandi".
That's not enough Coma. And I've been keeping tab on you for the whole day 2.
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On October 16 2014 07:05 WaveofShadow wrote:
##vote: ghandiEAGLE
DO we have enough time to look at the voting patterns for today/yesterday with the assumption that soniv is town?
I don't, and I was about to post a wall of text to ketchup explaining which role I thought Ghandi played (TL;DR: Ghandi is at worst distraction against us, doesn't force mislynchs or anything, so he should always take the backseat compared to a "real" harmful scum read, and if we don't get any satisfactory one by the end of the day we can default to him*).
Also Soniv you're pretty lucky they posted so much last page. Was about to finish it and go to bed, suddenly 2 more pages.
##Unvote
##Vote: Ghandieagle
Please don't spam too much guys, I want to be able to do some work tomorrow morning.
* turns out that's what happened tonight. Meh, I'd have prefered to get our "free lynch" under the thumb, but "wasting" him now is still better than a blue mislynch.
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You're overreading things Req. Most of us actually believe you townie (the bus still isn't dead, gonna depend on how Ghandi flips tonight, but as long as it's there I'll have to doubt everyone save Cixah/Wave/Ketchup... and Soniv now, eh), or, well, mainly townie.
There's no reason for you to get lynched, and Soniv has a much bigger target on his face than you atm.
Actually, like Soniv said, if you're VT, you'd be happy to die in his place anytime.
On October 16 2014 07:16 WaveofShadow wrote:
I think if Jeff flips green we flat out lose.
What do you mean?
We only have one blue confirmed (dunno if we have 2 or 3 total, nor how Cixah factors in all that), and Soniv prob won't get his check off tonight, but at least now that we know he's town we've got a huge contributor for D3, that we know we can trust, this time.
He'll prob get at least roleblocked (unless it was a jailkeeper on ketchup) because it'd be dumb to jailkeep Soniv anyway, even if it kept him alive he'd not get a check off. But noone knows if we have a medic, especially scum, and with such an important role Soniv is an obvious target if it's the case.
Can scum really gamble and try to shoot him hoping there isn't a medic in our ranks? That'd be dumb, they'd lose a whole day (even worse if Ghandi flips red).
That's it, last post for the night, cya.
Note for D3: I'm gonna be on Coma's and Asmo's asses.
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On October 16 2014 07:19 Cixah wrote:
Azladar, Mordek, and Ketchup are the only sketchy people left on my list.
I really don't like it.
0K THIS IS MY LAST POST
And I'll cry when I'll have to remember your answer through 100+ posts tomorrow morning.
Why the heck do you think Ketchup is sketchy? Oo
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Fuck you guys it's been over half a hour now. Fuck mafia.
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On October 16 2014 07:23 WaveofShadow wrote:
ALright well in theory we have what, like 3-4 people willing to switch to coma? So far not enough even if we DO decide we want to.
And yeah soniv I get those feels.
FUCK IT ALL
##Unvote
##Vote: ComaDose
Do what you want with it. I'm totally fine with it. And I don't think it's enough to stop you (plural) from lynching Ghandi if he's your final choice either so I can leave peacefully.
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I trust myself against Coma. Now let me go to sleep goddammit.
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On October 16 2014 08:03 Alzadar wrote:Show nested quote +On October 16 2014 08:00 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
And seriously guys in future Mafia games have someone be the busdriver role. It's 10/10. I think that role adds way too much mayhem. No actions make any sense. I played a live werewolf game once where there were actually no werewolves. The host just killed off a random person each night and then we all pointed fingers during the day. Fucking ridiculous.
I haven't read anything else yet but THIS!
Black Plague variant. It's super vicious because you win by asking the host if it's a Black Plague, so for most people who join these games through friends or whatever they don't know about it (they get explained the roles, not the full rules and variants), until they see their first one (and then either they lose, or someone points it out; either way they feel like they haven't contributed much).
Still fun to add once in awhile and when the game's mostly people with a few under their belts though (because they will forget about it at some point anyway).
169 posts to catch up to. T_T
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On October 16 2014 08:35 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
God Alaric's gonna wake up to a SHITFEST lol
This.
WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT NIGHT
... and right after there's another blue claim.
WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU DOING TO ME GUYS
This is like I'm watching a thriller unfold before my eyes. I can only imagine what it felt like for you live.
Oh COME ON. We lost ketchup too? I saw the edit but it was minor, I thought it could go by. No exceptions, whatever, even if a mod (TL mod I mean) can confirm all he did was add an s to a plural or something?
Not that it matters now that he flipped I guess...
On October 16 2014 09:03 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
Why the hell didn't Coma reveal as 3P? He coulda worked with townerino.
And given men 50 more posts to read?! Fuck that.
I mean, we didn't lynch any scum but isn't serial poisoner more dangerous for us than Survivor anyway?
I knew something was up with ComaDose (and I was right) but I didn't consider the possibility of a 3P at all... Actually when people talked about 3P (Wave and ketchup iirc?) I just surmised that Serial Poisoner seems like a pretty complex situation and that I'd put my money on Survivor if we had a 3P.
After checking, nvm Dandel said he RNG'd everything.
On October 16 2014 09:47 WaveofShadow wrote:Also I'm pretty sure I know who Coma poisoned and I'm not gonna say anything for hopes of doublestack. 
Inb4 he actually poisoned Lord Tolkien or ketchup.
Actually, yeah: all night actions are resolved at the same time, right? So he could have poisoned Tolkien the same night he died? That'd benefit us a lot, since you seem to consider it highly unlikely Coma poisoned scum.
0K I've got work to do, so I won't bother with a big post right now. I have some ideas, but I'll need to process them properly. Since most of you are sleeping it's not like it changes anything if I post now or in 2-3 hours. I'll come back.
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Geez, I was gonna make a joke on that post and then Req came down on Wave's ass anyway and the poisoner showed himself.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 17 2014 00:22 WaveofShadow wrote:
Wtf are you talking about?
Some things:
I think it might almost be little better that you're probably not getting a check off, because there's likely a GF floating around.
Also considering how scum have to play tonight I might as well just say, I think coma probably poisoned me N1. He had every reason to be afraid of my play and was giving me town reads if I'm not mistaken. I could be wrong but either way not like it matters. On the off chance we do have a poisoner, I can't say for certain that you should antidote me; it could be someone else or it could be better to just let me die if people are super suspicious of me still. TL;DR if Req is our poisoner you're fucked either way? 
Screw you guys, no fun allowed.
More seriously, there's a possibility I'm considering (which doesn't involve poisoner so hopefully either Coma's "parting gift" or our poisoner put a spanner in those works), that should be "viable" and different from Wave's (if I get it right). Because Wave's is so sure there's only one, it make me a bit nervous—not necessarily about you Wave. I'll explain tomorrow because I don't want to give scum ideas.
I noticed several people also seem to get more sure in their reads or "how the game shouldbe played". Just pointing out that only considering optimal play isn't best. It should still considered the most likely as long as it isn't too convoluted, but vets should probably stay open to the possibility of "less optimal" play.
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Answering Wave's post on me (for the record mordek, I offered to answer after the first one you quoted, just noone followed up):
+ Show Spoiler +On October 17 2014 01:19 WaveofShadow wrote:
Alaric should be higher up on the suspicious list right now for everyone. His play has been classically good town play, but for all the people who keep throwing suspicion on me because I'm capable of lying/manipulating as scum, look at Alaric's play. He very clearly knows how to play mafia and knows exactly what he is talking about, and so should so know what town likes to hear. I also remember saying I originally liked his vote dump on coma but now that coma flipped 3P, it doesn't mean anything anymore similar to Asmo' hammer. (essentially either of them could have thought they were voting town)
I'll adress the "know the game" thing with that day 1 post from ketchup. I refrained from correcting him because I have no idea how these games, and especially day 1 go, so I didn't know how cheeky I could be, thinking I'd go back to hit day 2 once things cooled down. They actually went super "srs mode" and Ghandi got bandwagon'd precisely because he was cheeky so I dropped it altogether.
I have some experience in the mechanics of the game, and I easily involve myself in stuff I find interesting so I kind of picked up on that, a huge difference however is that in my games of Werewolves fucking nobody utters a word and you pretty much RNG the lynches for 3+ days (20+ person games, they go long), another is that I know maybe 1-2 people outside of the game, that one only goes for this particular game, though (look up my filter Day 1, I mentioned near the end how it being an OT Mafia made me less confident in my reads).
+ Show Spoiler [the ketchup post that wasn't to be] +My answer to ketchup was built around the fact that in Werewolves I'm often the first one to talk to force it into action (kinda like Wave did with his first post, hence my adamant resolve that it couldn't be used against him)... which means I'm the day 1 lynch (werewolves goes N1-D1-N2-etc. sometimes there's a kill N1, sometimes not, depends on host). It's actually a kind of running gag because after a few sessions I started not saying a word to try and enjoy the game longer, and I still died (lynched or eaten) the first cycle. Always. At some point Cupid (basically creates a love triangle at the start of the game, the center dies all die, both others die he dies with them) chose me as the center, to "force" 2 people to defend me in the hopes that I'd live longer. Someone was eaten, another poisoned (equivalent to vigilante in werewolves), then they lynched me regardless, and my role meant I killed 2 or 3 adjacent people upon dying, so that masterful ploy killed 6 townies and only one werewolf the first cycle. Game ended fast. So based on that, I was gonna ketchup that and point out that I'd rather not get lynched Day 1, just to beak with tradition. Actually delaying the post to Day 2, and telling him "see, if I made that on Day 1 that'd have been suspicious/been called martyring and I'd probably have been lynched for it. So I avoided talking about my Day 1 issues to survive Day 1!" and made some joke about meta. You can get why I ended up not making the post, even as a light banter/fun fact thing.
I won't argue that I haven't been picking up bits here and there as time went, though, and I'm definitely more experienced now than at the start (feel I learnt a bunch from your caricatural "frustrated" play and the Night 1 exchanges between you and particularly Tolkien. I didn't take it for myself because I'm bad at this "trolling" style and it'd have been super different from my first cycle play, but I used a lot of what it taught me in my reads).
Look up the post where I explain why I vote Moonbear ove Ghandi, then my Day 2 Soniv vote over Ghandi. My reasoning ends up being similar but I'm a lot more confident Day 2. Same with how I went on Coma for good, compare that to both (earlier) times I went on Asmo, and first time on Coma.
(Soniv is still a fucker though. Do you always play like that, or was it because of your blue role that you wanted not to stick out too much?)
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About ComaDose, I stand by my vote and reasoning by the way. He was very suspicious to me, and with reason—I didn't consider 3rd party at all, and I don't know how it usually play out, but with that setup and the way the game went I believe him alive was more detrimental to town than scum (vets can correct me if I'm wrong? My impression anyway), and I'll state again that I'm fine with his death and although not scum I consider it (and my earlier pressure against him and investigating) a sucess.
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About Requizen (I'm not Soniv but screw it, cf. the 3rd argument for my Soniv vote).
When I said it being an OT Mafia didn't help me, Requizen (and to a lesser extent Moonbear, but we dun goofed Day 1) was the exception, because he's so sensitive (in general, not in an "easily offended" way) at times, impulsive and he opens up so much in OT that he's one of the easiest to anticipate, and as such detect whether he's faking or not.
Also because his choice of VN made me think he'd not only like, but probably be good at gathering hints and making cases. And he proved me pretty right in that.
You're being unreasonable Wave. I'm not going to try and get why (stuff on your plate, first cycle went wrong that demoralised you, fake frustration, whatever), but Req has actually made very well thought-out posts and analysis. When you can go against him, it's usually not for the way he reads the situation or his conclusions, but his premises (like that "at least 2 of Soniv/Ghandi/Wave are scum, he started with wrong premises (notably concerning you) but the post itself and the analysis based upon that premise was very well crafted).
If you could for just a moment replace every "Wave" mention in his posts with "Mr. Karate" and give them a read again, I'm sure you wouldn't be as flustered, and you'd actually like most of what you read.
It's true that Requizen may be wrong in where he ends up, but that's because he's cannon without crew, if you will. That's not to say he has to be manipulated, but as most of us he isn't experienced in this game, even if he picked it up super fast after Day 1. So sometimes he points at the wrong direction (like when he assumed you could potentially all be scum), but it's also part of your job (as a vet more experienced than us, assuming you're town) to guide him.
'cept you've just thrown his whole posts/reasonings out the window just because they had bad premises and talked about you. When you could just have corrected the premises and discussed about it.
The caveat to that very lauding post is that I blindly trusted my opinion of Req (from OT and stuff) that he wouldn't be good at leading people astray with how "whole" his personality is, to put him as town. Since I've reached the conclusion that at least one person is not just being indecisive, but actively lying and playing with us I try not to believe Req as blindly until I decide who it is, even though my instinct tells me he's reliable.
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Finally, Asmodeus. Said I'd come for Coma and you, and he's dead (and he made me more confident about my reads at that).
You pretty much did bandwagon/sheep someone -> get pressured -> do a pretty darn good job of building a case and being "autonomous" when you apply yourself to it -> mislynch -> you "lose confidence in [your] reads" and start sheeping until the cycle starts again.
When there were both Soniv and Ghandi you also said (while voting Soniv) that Ghandi was your other read. You mean, only both accused? The one you vote against and the one everybody's been leaning against from (almost) the start?
Well that'd bold.
And you make excuses that "I'm not confident" or "I'm not sure" whenever you get asked, you had to be asked twice (and the second time by Wave iirc, who's been leading a lot and thus has actual traction) to give two super-safe reads.
You weren't as non-commital as ComaDose still, so I let you off, and your cases were very well done one, so I got swayed by them both times.
However, like I just said above about Requizen, that's not enough to convince me anymore (especially after both turned out to be duds).
Is Ghandi still your main read? Do you plan on pushing him for Day 3? Or has someone else taken his place since (and if so, who)?
Don't be wavering.
Mordek, did you imply what I think you implied?
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Uuuh yeah so Asmodeus posted while I was typing. Doesn't change much since his post is SO VAGUE.
Exactly why I said I wouldn't be satisfied with. It's not Day 3 yet but I'd still like you to answer my post Asmo.
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Uh, I'll try.
Answer to you:
I came to DotA 2 from LoL, I have a itsy-bits of mechanics but other than that wtf is going on in this game guys, it's not what I knew at all. Some sidetracking about a joke/anecdote I ended up not doing.
An addition about how I still believe my gut call on Coma was right because in that setup serial poisoner's more dangerous than useful to town (asking confirmation from Soniv or you, but that's the impression I got), plus his play was def. suspicious.
About Req:
Just replace "Wave" with "Takuma" in each of Req's posts and re-read them. Req is doing work with his data analysis, it's just he collects data wrong (like when he assumed you/Ghandi/Soniv could all be scum, or that you+soniv scum wouldn't end with a bus with how hard you went at it). If you could drop some salt and manage, you to point out his mistakes without throwing the whole post out the window (while snickering), and him to take the criticism without lashing at you, that'd help us a ton.
Caveat: my read on Req relies primarily on that I used to think him 100% unable to put us on strings. I'm more paranoid now that I think someone is making bold lies (and potentially being real good at it) so I dropped the 100%.
About Asmo:
Uh... I guess I finally got at what you said when you called him a "politician"? Not sure how to make it shorter. I want him to be more assertive because so far you can sum up his play with sheepping -> called out hard -> suddenly solid case on a townie -> "I'm so bad, I'm never gonna make reads ever again" and back to sheeping when towniness is revealed (thanksfully not through death for Soniv), and I don't think it brings much.
(Well it actually brings a ton when he makes a case, but after two sniper rounds in the wrong direction I'll be a more skeptical this time if he makes a third case.)
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Mr. Karate can fucking 100-0 your Anchor in a single combo, don't diss him dude.
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This Asmo post, Wave. Told you I don't post fast.
(Fun fact: during a project evaluation meeting today my ex-boss mentioned how I should work on being more concise. ^^')
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On October 17 2014 04:30 WaveofShadow wrote:
Lol I love how your tldr is still pretty long.
Fuck you.
Now Imma read the rest of your post.
And don't take it personally Req, it's been the same for everyone ('cept ketchup at the time, RIP), you just stick out because I was so damn sure of you.
Unless you dislike my thinking you ain't no born mastermind?
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EPT
