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On August 28 2014 07:00 JennyHell wrote:
It's really simple actually.
Meat is scummy because I don't recognize this side of him, but his logic and his reads makes sense to me even if I don't agree fully on them. I like his approach to the game.
lilwade is acting the same, and although he's not contributed much, I don't feel ready to lynch him this day due to something I noticed that I don't feel comfortable sharing right now.
I can relate to your point on meatpudding, since i got the same feeling about his logic and even though he didn't post much, his answer to the question i had for him helped me see, where I missunderstood abuse.
I got mixed feelings about lilwade. His entrancepost seemed sloppy to me, since he seemed to have missed some posts but he mentioned he was under some kind of stress because school. Looking forward to see what it is, that caught your eye - maybe it will help me read him a little better.
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Top 3 lynches:
gobbledydook
breshke
daydreamarine
daydreamarine basically for being the least active person in this thread so far, so this isn't a scumread, I just got nothing from him, while other candidates for position 3 (lilwade, meatpudding), contributed with the few posts they made.
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On August 28 2014 07:45 gobbledydook wrote:
I think we should vote breshke for being completely useless. If I get enough support I am voting him instead.
I'll be keeping my vote on you for now... for the same reasons, I had earlier. You don't actually contribute and just follow trends at the moment without any own well-thought reasoning behind it. I accept the risk of you flipping town at the end but the way you are playing right now, will not help us in the future.
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On August 28 2014 08:19 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2014 08:15 JennyHell wrote:On August 28 2014 08:14 Breshke wrote:
Ohh and i forgot this
Towncircle
abuse
lilwade
meatpudding
Scum
MihZaa
Gobbledydook
Everyone else not leaning enough either way for me yet
How can you have a null on 4 people? I have null on 3 people right? its 9 player game is my maths wrong? I think is ridiculous that anyone claims a read on daydreammarine they have had like one post. And my read on you and superbia arnt exactly neutral, you are leaning town for me jenny but i didnt want to put you in my town circle whereas superbia is leaning mafia but in no way do i want to lynch him today
We are 10... so since you wont have a read on yourself there are 4 people missing on your list: me, superbia, daydreamarine and jenny
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nvm - way too slow...
But do you care how your change of heart considering meatpudding comes?
Last thing you wrote about him before asking your question about the vanilla town claims was, that you feel you should have a townread on him but you don't.
What changed your mind?
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On August 28 2014 08:30 gobbledydook wrote:
my top lynches are superbia, breshke and lilwade. Reasons can be found in my filter.
what's your reason for lynching breshke besides him being the only realistic wagon besides you atm? Your filter mentions breshke not a single time before you suggest to lynch him instead of you.
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Well shit.
That certainly didn't turn out as I would have expected.
Huge compliment to Jenny for being the only one to defend gobbledydook, when even he himself failed to do so.
I have to take a step back now to see, where i picked up that vibe in gobble, that made me so sure about him being scum, that I couldn't be persuaded off of him anymore. Mistakes were made on my side and I can't have that happen again D2.
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Meatpudding:
First of all: You ask me about my opinion on MihZaaas answer to my question, yet you call him out for dodging questions and quote my question.
I think you might have misquoted something, since I feel he didn't dodge my question?
I understand MihZaaas explanation to my question... I checked the timestamps on the post and what he says is true, there are only few minutes between abuses posts and his, so this makes perfectly sense. Up until end of day I liked him for calling out gobbledydook on his weak claim, since it was in line with my line of thought.
In hindsight I feel I should have pursued him more, since he said his scumreads were abuse and lilwade, yet he didn't react to them posting at all, which is suspicious especially in the case of abuse, since it was quite clear that both of them were in the thread at the same time. This could have been a costly mistake.
Also lilwade was present at the end of day, yet no interaction at all. No questions directed at lilwade and he only asks abuse once about his opinion on lilwade.
lilwade also made it from his list of people who didn't contribute enough to his scumreads without him giving any reasons behind this change. You only see him writing, that he wants to see more from lilwade.
Next thing that feels a bit off is that his vote on gobbledydook came 15 minutes after him mentioning gobble. This may be personal preference but I don't like that his post only contains the vote and you have to scroll through his filter to find, what he doesn't like about gobble because between his vote and his reason behind are two more posts.
As for why I didn't follow up on my questions on you:
I missunderstood something in abuses push on superbias post and therefore interpreted things wrong. I mentioned it in a post to Jenny that your post helped me see, where my logic was faulty and I also explained my missunderstanding a few posts earlier when answering abuses question.
I didn't feel the need to follow up on your post, since it was based on flawed logic on my side. Sorry I didn't give you any notice of me, not planing to follow up on that push.
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On August 28 2014 19:47 Superbia wrote:
I'm currently living in a world where at least 1 of the 2 mafia was not active last night. It was way too fucking easy for mafia to hide because only half of the entire player group was around. I'm afraid that we may have had no real pressure on any mafia at the end of the day. Lilwade and Breshke both switch their votes from dook to MihZaaa as the end of day draws near. This means that it was very easy for the vote to swing Breshke's way (only needing 1 from dook +1). I don't think you take that risk as mafia.
I actually feel Breshkes swing has got some bad taste in it.
First of all there is this quote:
On August 28 2014 08:36 Breshke wrote:
I agree i was looking on him with a towny light but he seemed to just flip out. I'm not going to lynch someone just because they get Bm so "oh he must be town" that sets a bad standard. If people don't understand your reads its your job to try and explain them.
Yet he still votes on gobble, not for being mafia but for being anti-town, after gobble started insulting people.
Then he only went for MihZaaa after wades swing and when he could be quite sure, that he would not get lynched, since it would have taken 2 extra-votes on him and there were not enough people active in the thread to accomplish this, since many of us - myself included - were not present at the end of the day.
Gobbles vote already was on him by the time he switched, so it would have taken 2 out of Meatpudding, abuse, superbia, lilwade an me.
Lilwade switched back to his prime suspect just a few posts before, so he could be quite sure, he wouldn't get lilwades vote and meatpudding, abuse and I were not present anymore by the time he switched.
I don't think this switch was a risk at all.
On lilwades swing I feel unsure, since he had MihZaaa as his first vote, then switched to gobbledydook after his outburst and then switched back to MihZaaa, once his outburst was over and the tempers have cooled down. I don't like the back and forth, but it is in line with his previous posts and I can't blame him for swinging to gobble for a short period of time. He also gave an explanation for swinging:
On August 28 2014 09:19 lilwade wrote:
I will make this clear I See MihZaaa as my scum, but I do not like people who are detrimental to town. I think gobbledydook needs to put on his big boy pants and play the game.
Still: I don't like the switching back and forth but I can understand both switches. I still would have felt better, if he had stuck with MihZaaa.
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lilwade: now, that there isn't the hectic of the nearing end of day:
Could you give us a little more insight in your switching back and forth?
breshke:
I pointed out some contradiction in your vote, since I get out of your post, that what has triggered your vote on gobble was his bm. Am I wrong here? If so, what was the reason you put your vote on him?
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On August 29 2014 00:37 Superbia wrote:
Barakos - voted on dook / semi-active during EoD
Lots of substantial posts. Active and useful.
Read and interacted with my posts in a very townie way.
Says he "might have been blinded by his trollish undertone and therefore missed several slips and flaws." (with regards to my megaposts) but never revisits this. May have had better targets on day 1 (votes on dook in his next post, 5 hours later), but I would like to see a follow up.
Absent for the last 1 1/2 hours of the EoD without notice.
Never lynching you today, unless you scumslip hard. I dread the world in which you're mafia.
I reread your whole filter and it really was a pain. :p
I come to the conclusion, that no matter how I read your entrance-post, be it in a trollish tone or be it serious, it doesn't matter to me in the grand scheme of things right now, since it doesn't influence my general read on you.
On the one hand you gain a lot of credit for stimulating the discussion in the thread but on the other hand... i took about 15 minutes to reread your first post and I am afraid I will have to do this over and over again during the course of this game.
You got the biggest filter in the game by far, but lots of your posts are your interactions with abuse, that all are a result from your push, that - as I stated earlier - was legit in it's core but over the top in the details.
This being said, I don't want to go through all this posts, since there are more pressing issues on my mind. Main thing being the misslynch, which the two of us have to take a major blame, so I'll be going through the way of your votes.
You stuck with abuse for a really long time and unvoted him only quite late yesterday evening, when you saw no chance of him dieing.
Right now you still got him in your scumpile, which is ok with me, as long as you don't tunnel as hard on him, as you did D1.
What do you mean when you say he likes Breshkes reads?
The only time abuse agreed on any of Breshkes reads, was when he said, that he agreed with Breshkes read on leaning town and the next time Breshke appears in abuses filter is, when abuse says, breshke has worked his way down on abuses ladder towards a "null/scum"-area.
Unless I have missed one of abuses posts, this again looks like you are inflating a point abuse made and twist it to his disadvantage.
Continuing with the vote:
Well... it looks grim. The vote was placed and you didn't revoke it, although you stuck around till the end of night. But looking at your reasoning, I don't see obvious flaws. The post you quoted in your vote is the same post, that confirmed my vote on gobbledydook. I agree with your reasoning behind your vote and I also like the fact, that you stuck to it, although you had opportunities to change your vote to anybody else. For scum this would have been a golden opportunity to earn easy towncredit. You didn't take a chane I think many mafia would have taken and this makes you lean town to me.
Now you are doing work again by giving out a new set of reads on everybody. I like it. This is town-work again.
If you wouldn't seem so "tunnely" on abuse I would like it a lot more. To me it seems like you are holding some kind of grudge against abuse, that makes you see things he does in a more scummy way than they acutally are.
I held - and still hold - my reservations towards him, too, but be more open towards differnt opportunities.
At least now you recognize him as being active - I see this as a good start.
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On August 29 2014 04:04 Barakos wrote:
What do you mean when you say he likes Breshkes reads?
The only time abuse agreed on any of Breshkes reads, was when he said, that he agreed with Breshkes read on leaning town and the next time Breshke appears in abuses filter is, when abuse says, breshke has worked his way down on abuses ladder towards a "null/scum"-area.
Unless I have missed one of abuses posts, this again looks like you are inflating a point abuse made and twist it to his disadvantage.
EBWOP: ... that he agreed with Breshkes read on me leaning town...
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On August 29 2014 01:30 lilwade wrote:
My switch was to pressure gobble to try to bring a case for himself, but he crumbled and gave up. Which is something is hate to see in mafia. Artanis told me in the first game to just keep it cool and dont take it personal.
Pressuring gobbledydook is a fair point.
But what made you switch back?
You say, you didn't like about MihZaaa, that he one-line-voted and then got all silent. As i see it, you did the same thing before end of day...
On August 28 2014 09:24 lilwade wrote:
If we get momentum going for MihZaaa I will go for it
On August 28 2014 09:24 lilwade wrote:
##unvote
##vote: MihZaaa
and then silence until now.
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I already elaborated quite a bit on MihZaaa in my answer to meatpudding:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/464494-newbie-lviii-disney-princess-mafia?page=23#456
How did you miss this?
In case you are asking for a definite judgement, on how scummy MihZaaa is: he is one of the two most likely mafia at the moment. The other being Breshke.
So this answers one of your next questions already.
When it comes to mafiapartners: It would be somebody MihZaaaa is not definite about, since I think allying with your scumpartner this early in the game is something no sane mafia would do, since if one of them flips by getting lynched the main suspect would be on the partner, which is something nobody wants. On the other hand you wouldn't want to push your scumbuddy too hard, since there is the high chance, that it sticks with the thread (especially in an inactive game as we are in now). So it would have to be one of MihZaas Null/Bang-reads. This is the point, where it get's hard to interpret, since he is really inconsistent, when it comes to placing his reads.
There is this post:
On August 27 2014 08:08 MihZaaa wrote:
Ill go to sleep now but before I go I'll leave some thoughts.
From least scummy to most.
Barakos
Superbia and JennyHell
Abuse
People who haven't contributed enough:
Lilwade
Meatpudding
Breshke
Gobbledydook and Daydreamarine
With lilwade contributing the most out of those 5.
Out of the people I have gotten reads on I would lynch abuse the most but he's been much more useful to the town than the lurkers so I can't be happy with lynching him.
He explains that abuse is his top lynch, and later on in his posts he deviates you from Jenny, saying that he is neutral on Jenny and has you in his towny corner.
So in case of MihZaaa flipping red my suspects, who could be his scumpartner are Jenny and the people he had no read on at the moment he posted this.
I can't give reads on the posibility of daydreamarine being mafia, since i he just isn't in any of my calculations at the moment. You can't read an empty book. That's the problem with him. Everything I post about him would be speculation and I don't want to throw out wild speculations based on the complete absence of one person.
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On August 29 2014 05:08 JennyHell wrote:
Barakos, you mention that if MihZaa flips red you think I could possibly be his scum partner.
Try to see it from the other end. What if I were to flip scum, who'd be my partner then? Do you still reach the same conclusion that it would be MihZaaaa?
That said, how likely do you feel it is that I flip scum after I've been vomiting town all over this entire game?
The bolded part is exactly, what i would do with each of my suspects, in case MihZaa flips: I would look at it with switched roles.
I haven't put much thought into scenarios in which you flip scum, cause those scenarios are the most unlikely for me at the moment, so I am not 100% sure, what would be the outcome if I checked your interactions with MihZaa.
But let's see...
There was the early interaction between you two, when he called you out because he felt that the rate between the length of your posts and your reads was off and you mentioning that superbias list was inconsequent considering the score on mihzaa and abuse.
The next noteable thing is that you made a really long post, where you never really made up your mind considering him.
After that you only had interactions, where you encouraged people to either put their votes on or off MihZaaa. (At the beginning of EoD you asked wade to put his vote off of MihZaaa and when you were trying to safe gobbledydook you asked wade and breshke to form a wagon on him.
So while everything up until the end of day one was "flip-floppy" as you called it yourself there were no definite leans in your interactions with him, which then changed. One time tried to get a vote off of him and the other time you tried to get votes onto him. While this isn't consistent behavior, it is both too extreme.
So this plus taking the fact, that you had him on your top three scumlist, leads me to believe, that in case of you flipping red, i wouldn't see MihZaa as your scumbuddy.
Which in return would also make you one of the weaker suspects, in case of MihZaa flipping red.
Please don't ask me for other spontaneous analysis on the other possible suspects right now, or at least don't expect me to post them right away.
1) this is all theory on what would happen, if he flips scum, which absolutely isn't a given and if at all will happen not earlier than saturday night, the main question right now should be: "is mihzaaa a good D2 lynch" and not "what happens, if we lynch him and he flips red"
2) this takes quite some time... i reread both of your filters (not indepth but it still took lots of time)... and right now it is getting late for me, since i haven't gotten much sleep this night
3) as a result of 2) i already got a minor headache
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On August 29 2014 05:12 Superbia wrote:
Which of the two would you rather kill?
This is not the final answer to this question, because there is still a question at Breshke, which he hasn't answered yet.
Atm for me it is Breshke, since i disliked the way he reasoned before voting. I will have to wait until my question is answered.
But given the way things are atm, we might also have to consider daydreamarine as one of our possible targets. His inactivity kills any possibility to read him...
If you hear this: Shape up mr.marine!
Get out of your shell and post something. I can't believe, you read the whole thread twice and still got not the smallest hint of a tell on anybody.
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Will do the same, since I noticed i haven't given a full list as of yet:
Town: JennyHell, Superbia
Leaning Town: meatpudding, abuse
Leaning Scum: lilwade, daydreamarine
Scum: Breshke, MihZaaa
With abuse it is a close call between leaning town and leaning scum. The two of us started off on the false foot, and had some missunderstandings but since they have been cleared I see him leaning more town.
This will be my last post for today. I wish you all (sadly, i could also write two) a good night and may we all wake up again tomorrow.
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gg meatpudding - your death will not be in vain!
This kill... it doesn't make any sense to me.
Going through mps stuff. There has to be something he said, that triggered this kill.
Because I can't believe that superbias promise to dive through any of us was enough to make scum not shoot any of the three of us... we have been reevaluating each other several times now...
There has to be a stronger motive - I'll go digging!
Daydreamarine: Welcome again to the thread. I am really looking forward to you insight and hope by getting your view on things you bring up new points that we have missed up until now.
In case you didn't know - in the upper right corner of every post there is a quote-link...
I would appreciate it, if you use it, since my first thought, reading your post was "why is he talking to himself" until I realised, this was something Jenny said to you.
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Abuse:
Thanks for sharing the pm with ous - not sure, what to make of it right now, will give it some thought.
I am not sure, if we really should be speculating about powerroles right now, as it is daytime and powerroles don't matter that much.
On the other hand this pm leaves us with 3 possible role-setups. 2 of them include a mafia roleblocker.
This would make the kill on meatpudding way more understandable to me, because if mafia has a roleblocker, they know, that there is either a medic or a jailer in town, which means they have to plan their kills around the possible safes, to ensure a kill.
This would mean, that there is a high likelyhood that they didn't really want to shoot meatpudding, but went for him, as it was a pretty safe bet, that he would not be protected and they would not waste their shot.
Will give this some more thinking.
Also abuse:
Why are you so defensive? Big parts of your post are basically a defense against things that haven't happened yet. Please don't do this, as it makes you look weak, when I think, that you could be a strong contributor to town, if you wouldn't spend to much time overdefending. For example you informing us about the pm was helpfull, your guess on the roledistribution was so in some way, too.
Anyways: have fun at your wedding. From what I have heard, weddings in your part of the world tend do be lots of fun! Hope you have a good time, but don't forget to read the thread so your vote is as well-informed as possible.
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What you just said there rings a huge bell...
In your 2nd quote, you quoted yourself saying you had a read about lilwade but were not sure about him yet and you quoted Jenny posting something similar...
Do you think mafia might have been seeing this as a claim of one of you hinting at having a powerrole based on that statements?
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EPT
