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On August 06 2014 09:08 kushm4sta wrote:
wanna update us on your artanis read real quick?
I liked his post defending me from haru's attack, I think those are convincing reasons why haru is scum. I didn't like how he hopped onto the vivax bandwagon without any explanation, when at that time if he had stayed on haru probably haru would be dead by now.
So I don't think haru and artanis are both scum, I don't see why artanis would scumread haru and actually raise new points about his posting if he was scum too. Artanis scum haru town seems unlikely, why did he have to raise suspicion by doing the swap when haru was perfectly scummy for him to mislynch?
Artanis town seems most likely, Artanis is reasonably confident that haru is scum, but he trusts in HF's vivax bandwagon (lapse in judgment for a second? sheep mentality?) and there goes the yoloswitch.
This is also the reason why I think last minute switches are retarded, you just don't give enough time for town to think through that choice and emotional pushes on wrong targets are what mafias like and want to see.
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On August 06 2014 14:25 Eden1892 wrote:i could swear i talked about the marv/hf thing. but in-between bouts of restless sleep awaiting poofter's return i could well have dreamt it i thought the vivax lynch made marv look significantly worse than hf because pre-edit: lol i did here you go, i just didn't use any names so it didn't make any sense Show nested quote +eh I guess it depends on Haru's flip really so I'm not putting much stock into it, but on balance I think scum are much more likely to follow a move at EOD rather than start one. path of least resistance and all
and I know that can be subverted, hence the "on balance" aspect basically marv was sitting around watching for someone to sheep almost, reading eod. he seemed lost which is really out-of-character for him imo. i can understand it to an extent, but i didn't really feel like vivax made sense and... i dunno it just looked convenient to hop on hyperconfident holyflare's lynch i almost never scumread people who drive a new wagon at EOD unless the original wagon flips scum, i'm sure one day someone clever like onceking will burn me for it but until it happens i've literally never seen scum drum up a town bandwagon at eod to counter another town wagon WITH ALL THAT SAID i'm likely tinfoiling if i seriously consider the idea of either of them being scum right now, i would guess this is a moot question because they get n1'd and n2'd
Does this imply that if haru flips scum, then you're hard scumreading marv?
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On August 06 2014 14:54 Eden1892 wrote:
OK so I think the Vivax lynch was dumb but town-driven. Here's why.
1. Either we had a mafia wagon out of Haru or gobble on d1, or we didn't.
2. If we had a mafia wagon on d1, that strongly implies to me, from past experience, that the mafia have very weak thread presence. It's not difficult at all to deflect a lynch onto a townie on the first day, before anyone has flipped.
3. If the mafia have a very weak thread presence, then it is significantly unlikely that the Vivax wagon, which was generated very rapidly and effectively on very short notice, is mafia-driven, because if the mafia had the thread presence to generate that wagon that quickly, they would never have had a teammate up for a lynch in the first place.
4. If the Vivax wagon is not mafia-driven, then it is town-driven.
5. If we didn't have a mafia wagon on d1, that strongly implies to me, from past experience and analysis of incentives, that the mafia wouldn't have generated a third wagon. Generating a wagon is a risky venture for mafia because they have to fabricate a case and be public about pushing it, which puts them in the spotlight and forces them to work hard to look townie. Furthermore if they already have two town wagons set up, they're in an ideal spot. Not only do they not stand to gain anything from generating another wagon, they might accidentally cause a shakeup in some of the townies' thought processes with the sudden movement that causes the mafia to lose control of the situation. Mafia very strongly favor a static, not dynamic, game state.
6. If the mafia wouldn't have generated a third wagon (the Vivax wagon), then the Vivax wagon must be town-driven.
7. Regardless of whether or not the Haru and/or gobble wagons are town or mafia, the Vivax wagon is town-driven.
8. Therefore, the Vivax wagon is town-driven.
We need to be looking at people who were hesitant to jump on the Vivax wagon or change anything up. People who jumped on the wagon late in the turn, or people who were around during the last hour or so but didn't move their vote or acknowledge the shift much, are more likely to be mafia than those who got on the Vivax wagon early.
From my point of view:
I think there was never really enough traction on me to get me lynched, especially since Haru looked scummier than I did. Also from my perspective Haru is scum as I said, so therefore mafia needed an alternative target.
I think marv (who I read town) derped when he started the wagon, but we know that the wagon wouldn't have left the station if not enough people were on board. Here's where the mafia come in, they push the wagon over the critical mass and it causes a massive wreck. I believe there's at least 1 mafia, probably 2 in the vivax train. My guess would be Haru and poofter, in that order of confidence.
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I just want to ask you all a question. What are you going to do after you mislynch me? Does it help you at all?
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On August 07 2014 07:26 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2014 07:24 gobbledydook wrote:
I just want to ask you all a question. What are you going to do after you mislynch me? Does it help you at all? lol, what kind of mindset is this?
It's the fuck you kush and marv mindset I'm through with this bullshit tunnelling. You only have four fucking mislynches to lose and if the response to me flipping town is welp oops then fuck this shit I didn't know kush could be that bad.
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I won't even talk to you kush you are the most frustrating player I have played against.
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On August 07 2014 07:44 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2014 07:41 gobbledydook wrote:
I won't even talk to you kush you are the most frustrating player I have played against. This reaction is really unwarranted.
Nothing I say will convince him so why should I try? Waste of words?
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No that is not what I am saying. kush is in full retard tunnel mode I refuse to discuss with him.
He's fucking trying to kill me. He refuses to consider any town motive I may have. Is there any point?
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On August 07 2014 07:47 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2014 07:45 gobbledydook wrote:On August 07 2014 07:44 justanothertownie wrote:On August 07 2014 07:41 gobbledydook wrote:
I won't even talk to you kush you are the most frustrating player I have played against. This reaction is really unwarranted. Nothing I say will convince him so why should I try? Waste of words? Why have you just said this now when he's spent the past 5 pages on me?
I'm sorry I'm just really pissed.
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chillax im reading filters on a phone
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Sorry this class im in prohibits technology so be back later
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fucking sheep
##vote gobbledydook since you want to lose so much I'll play along
im so done
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give me a reason why I should try. ur all sucking kushs dead dick
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also marvs sheep worst sheep ever. hard defend me into sheeping kush like one page later with no reason other than trusting kush. Kush is good and hes confirmed town but hes not god, make your own decisions.
Would consider a marv lynch based on that alone.
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On August 07 2014 11:33 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2014 10:55 gobbledydook wrote:
give me a reason why I should try. ur all sucking kushs dead dick Show nested quote +On August 07 2014 11:14 gobbledydook wrote:
also marvs sheep worst sheep ever. hard defend me into sheeping kush like one page later with no reason other than trusting kush. Kush is good and hes confirmed town but hes not god, make your own decisions.
Would consider a marv lynch based on that alone. From given up --> lynch Marv in 20 minutes... Interesting
i finished raging
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On August 07 2014 11:44 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2014 11:41 gobbledydook wrote:On August 07 2014 11:33 goodkarma wrote:On August 07 2014 10:55 gobbledydook wrote:
give me a reason why I should try. ur all sucking kushs dead dick On August 07 2014 11:14 gobbledydook wrote:
also marvs sheep worst sheep ever. hard defend me into sheeping kush like one page later with no reason other than trusting kush. Kush is good and hes confirmed town but hes not god, make your own decisions.
Would consider a marv lynch based on that alone. From given up --> lynch Marv in 20 minutes... Interesting i finished raging That was fast.
would you prefer me rage for 20 minutes or 20 hours
i can do 20 hours too
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On August 07 2014 00:19 marvellosity wrote:
the thing is, i really think kush is town, and he's been pretty damn handy at catching mafia lately, and he seems really really convinced that gobble is mafia.
it kinda feels like a leap of faith is called for.
On August 07 2014 00:28 marvellosity wrote:
why not? if someone's in good form and is convinced someone is mafia, that's kinda compelling.
i get tons of lynches through like that.
sheeping good skill to have tbh.
'Someone has been right lately so I'm just going to blindly trust him even though I'm not sold on his arguments'
Either there's a case of cognitive bias here where marv just remembers the times he gets lucky with his sheeping, or he's trying to back away from his read with a semi-plausible reason.
My question is, if he's town and doesn't think I'm town any more, why doesn't he give his own reasoning why I'm now scum other than 'kush thinks gobbledydook is scum'?
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On August 07 2014 12:48 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2014 12:23 gobbledydook wrote:On August 07 2014 00:19 marvellosity wrote:
the thing is, i really think kush is town, and he's been pretty damn handy at catching mafia lately, and he seems really really convinced that gobble is mafia.
it kinda feels like a leap of faith is called for. On August 07 2014 00:28 marvellosity wrote:
why not? if someone's in good form and is convinced someone is mafia, that's kinda compelling.
i get tons of lynches through like that.
sheeping good skill to have tbh. 'Someone has been right lately so I'm just going to blindly trust him even though I'm not sold on his arguments' Either there's a case of cognitive bias here where marv just remembers the times he gets lucky with his sheeping, or he's trying to back away from his read with a semi-plausible reason. My question is, if he's town and doesn't think I'm town any more, why doesn't he give his own reasoning why I'm now scum other than 'kush thinks gobbledydook is scum'? So just to be clear your proposed scumteam now is: Haru, Poofter, Marv And you feel okay about everyone else?
Those three are on my bad list, I haven't reread everyone's filter yet so I cannot say for sure they are OK. In particular I haven't quite got around to analyzing the cases on holyflare.
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I just read the holyflare/vivax fiasco that happened around deadline and the conclusion is WTF is going on.
So here comes vivax, he's gone all day since at the beginning when haru was making that +1/-1 posts. So naturally he's still thinking of that, and then holyflare hard scumreads him for him attacking everyone on haru at that point but not actually commenting on the haru argument. From what I read vivax had already established his haru townread and since he thinks scum are mislynching him he is trying to find out who's scum in his enemies. For some god knows reason aka 'being a dick' he gets EOD wagoned, and then the recrimination flies everywhere, eden and kush who didn't join the EOD wagon incriminate him for instigating the lynch...
This is a complete disaster. I don't know what to take from this. I don't even think all this wagon-starting and recrimination is indicative of alignment at all, there's way too much bad in there that anyone, town or mafia likewise, could pick holes in them.
I don't know if HF is scum or town, he's posted lots of strong reads (but a scum HF is perfectly capable of doing that as well as town I assume), but he's also caused a huge ruckus over vivax (that could be scum muddying the waters or town just not wanting to admit he was wrong). Can someone guide me through that ten pages of shit?
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EPT
