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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
If my count is right, tomorrow we'll be 6 people alive. mderg HaruRH sqrtofneg1 Amiko Alakaslam fuba Palmar that's 5v1. I would suggest in a 5v1 scenario that town no-lynches, bringing it down to 4v1 (and that's when claims should happen at latest) -> lynch -> nk -> 2v1 (lylo). The reason we should no-lynch is that it gives cop/watcher additional night to work with. Of course mafia might decide to not shoot in the 5v1 scenario forcing us to lynch, but in that case just lynch. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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HaruRH
Singapore2780 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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mderg
Germany1740 Posts
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
On June 04 2014 16:20 HaruRH wrote: Sqrt: What is your rationale for moving off fuba after d1? Any strong reasons why? Who are your top 2 scum reads now? 1. He looked towny to me after that. 2. This post is huge: On May 31 2014 15:45 fuba wrote: I'm glad you mentioned sqrt, because he's someone who's stuck out to me. His reason for unvoting jabber and voting palmar was that lynches like that end up being wrong. It turns out that he was right, but isn't that a really, really strange reason to unvote someone when you have legitimate reasons to believe he's scum in front of you? Then he swaps back to jabber in order to get more information, even though he thinks palmar is scummier. He then unvotes jabber because of his defense. Not the content of his defense, because that was scummy. He basically unvoted because jabber gave A reason. It wasn't a "too scummy to be scum" argument, it was just - he gave a reason, I think he's town. Then while interacting with Chrom, he says that he doesn't think jabber is town (except he actually did explicitly say "I think he's town now."), but he thinks there's a possibility that jabber is town. This is a really strange thing to say as town because unless someone is somehow modconfirmed scum, there is always the possibility that they're town. That's a given, it's understood by everyone. But he reiterates the fact that he thinks jabber is scummy, but might be town, but might also be scum, about 3-4 times. There's also the fact that he says he wants to lynch jabber for the information earlier on in the day, and later says that he gained no information from the lynch. Clearly his reason for voting jabber at that time was bs, because if you've noticed something that will give you information based on jabber's flip, that thing doesn't just disappear. Then there's his read of me. He suggests me as a possible scum wagon rivaling that of jabber. Seems to indicate that he's really sure of it. But when jabber flips town, which I would have expected to increase his scumread on me, he doesn't mention me at all. Nothing whatsoever until: This isn't something you say about your strong scumread. However: I'm back on his town list. On the same level as mderg and amiko, who I feel is almost positively town. I went from one of his top scumreads to one of his towniest reads, after the jabber lynch revealed that whatever small contributions I had were in favor of what turned out to be a mislynch. And even if I'm reading too much into me being on this list with amiko, he still considers me town. I don't see why this would be his reaction to the D1 lynch. But the next day: Suddenly I'm back on the scumlist. These are the only mentions of me after his case. This is more than just changing his mind, this is two unexplained and absolute reversals of his read - after an event that should have straight-up solidified his scumread of me if it was legitimate. And finally there's the little things, like the fact that he started the game talking about himself being mafia, and that he seemed concerned about having said "I've rolled mafia twice" instead of "I've never rolled mafia except twice", when it would have been clear what he meant without the correction. And pointing out someone who might be blue even though there's no reason for town to do so. I'm actually getting too tired to keep my eyes open at this point, so I'll leave it at this for now. I'll take a closer look at slOosh and MZ tomorrow, and see if I think either one is scummier than sqrt. I've read the cases, but haven't filtered them too well. In case it wasn't clear in my last post, I'm really unsure about gobble at this point. He did ignore my questions, he does feel like he's not reading everything I'm writing, and it feels like he's simply refusing to believe I could possibly be town. Could be stubborn, could be scum. I don't know anymore, and it seems like it's kinda off the table for the moment. Even if he is scum, there's two others out there so I'm looking for them for now. ##Vote: sqrtofneg1 I like his thought process. 3.Top 2 scumreads? Palmar and ??? | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17336 Posts
On June 04 2014 16:20 HaruRH wrote: Sqrt: What is your rationale for moving off fuba after d1? Any strong reasons why? Who are your top 2 scum reads now? Amiko: Who is your top 2 scum reads now? Why? Who is your top 2 town reads? Why? Who will you push on d4? Alakaslam: Try to answer this in the most non-troll way possible: What is the reason for posting lazily like this on d3? Fuba: Any defenses to my claim? I hope to read these responses even if I die this night, such that I can have a better read. Because I am not allowed to troll this game! Do people seriously think I have been? | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On June 04 2014 23:35 Palmar wrote: Can we no lynch? This game does not have no-lynches. | ||
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HaruRH
Singapore2780 Posts
On June 04 2014 23:00 Palmar wrote: Discussing the setup is fine btw. If my count is right, tomorrow we'll be 6 people alive. mderg HaruRH sqrtofneg1 Amiko Alakaslam fuba Palmar that's 5v1. I would suggest in a 5v1 scenario that town no-lynches, bringing it down to 4v1 (and that's when claims should happen at latest) -> lynch -> nk -> 2v1 (lylo). The reason we should no-lynch is that it gives cop/watcher additional night to work with. Of course mafia might decide to not shoot in the 5v1 scenario forcing us to lynch, but in that case just lynch. Since Bh just stated no no-lynches, we can only go with: 5v1 -> role claims 3v1 -> lylo I doubt we have a medic (or we have one which fails every night). Cop seems improbable since a red would have been found out by now, given that everyone wanted to lynch sloosh/gobble/MZ. | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
On June 05 2014 02:04 HaruRH wrote: I doubt we have a medic (or we have one which fails every night). Cop seems improbable since a red would have been found out by now, given that everyone wanted to lynch sloosh/gobble/MZ. So we only have one blue role? Nope. I'm guessing we have a watcher, and either a cop or a doctor. | ||
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fuba
United States663 Posts
On June 05 2014 02:04 HaruRH wrote: Since Bh just stated no no-lynches, we can only go with: 5v1 -> role claims 3v1 -> lylo I doubt we have a medic (or we have one which fails every night). Cop seems improbable since a red would have been found out by now, given that everyone wanted to lynch sloosh/gobble/MZ. We have to have two of cop/medic/watcher. I'm leaning towards there not being a cop, but I wouldn't rule it out just yet. And if there's a medic/watcher or both, I'd bet they're keeping an eye on Amiko, which is why scum keep getting kills off. I'm not suggesting they stop (medic/watcher), just explaining what I'm seeing. About to read through your thoughts again, will be back with thoughts of my own ^^ | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
On June 05 2014 02:20 fuba wrote: We have to have two of cop/medic/watcher. I'm leaning towards there not being a cop, but I wouldn't rule it out just yet. And if there's a medic/watcher or both, I'd bet they're keeping an eye on Amiko, which is why scum keep getting kills off. I'm not suggesting they stop (medic/watcher), just explaining what I'm seeing. About to read through your thoughts again, will be back with thoughts of my own ^^ Medic can't save same person twice in a row. | ||
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fuba
United States663 Posts
K, srsly now. Responding to haru XD | ||
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fuba
United States663 Posts
On June 05 2014 02:22 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Medic can't save same person twice in a row. Did BH clarify that somewhere? I don't see it in the OP. | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
On June 05 2014 02:33 fuba wrote: Did BH clarify that somewhere? I don't see it in the OP. It was that way the last time. I guess not this game. | ||
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fuba
United States663 Posts
I don't see any reason to take much of what SlOosh said in that last post seriously anymore. He's confirmed scum, so whatever he said at that point was meant to drag us into wifom. So we shouldn't let it, and ignore most of it, as I'm trying to do with his comments about sqrt. Analysis >>> scum wifom. As for me sheeping the MZ lynch, I should clarify I guess. MZ had been a prime lynch target for the better part of 2 days at that point. There was no way anyone I could suggest was being lynched over MZ even if I thought there was a better lynch. So I saw no point in analyzing anything that might prove pointless, rather than working on my two final projects that are due next week. Technically I wasn't even being lazy, I was just prioritizing my time. I just checked out the votes from the SlOosh lynch again, and I feel like there's a really strong chance that all scum were on the MZ wagon D2, or the last one could have switched over and gotten a mislynch. Amiko was right in that since I was wrong, I was giving scum the chance to switch over to MZ easily. The fact that they didn't makes me feel that one of Palmar/sqrt/Haru is scum. I've already explained why I don't think sqrt and Haru are scum, so that leaves me with Palmar for tomorrow's lynch. | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
On June 05 2014 02:57 fuba wrote: I just checked out the votes from the SlOosh lynch again, and I feel like there's a really strong chance that all scum were on the MZ wagon D2, or the last one could have switched over and gotten a mislynch. Amiko was right in that since I was wrong, I was giving scum the chance to switch over to MZ easily. The fact that they didn't makes me feel that one of Palmar/sqrt/Haru is scum. I've already explained why I don't think sqrt and Haru are scum, so that leaves me with Palmar for tomorrow's lynch. This. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
So, I’m not certain, but I think we probably have a watcher. (1) Slam claimed roleblock d1 This point falls through if Slam was lying, but go with me for a minute- If there is a watcher in the game, mafia wants to ensure they neither roleblock nor kill someone who is likely to be watched. Ask yourself: On day 1, Who do you feel presented as most towny / analytical / useful? These players would typically be good targets for scum to kill. As such, if there is a watcher, the watcher likely picked one of these players to observe. I think Slam has made a few points over the course of the game, but I don’t think I would put him as a likely kill N1, so if I were watcher I think it’s pretty unlikely I would target him. This means that Slam becomes a relatively safe person to roleblock – it’s pretty unlikely a watcher will target him, so you can probably roleblock him without getting caught. (2) Slam is an extra good roleblock target This point is actually pretty remote. I think it's true, but I have never seen scum pick their roleblock with this level of thought, so I feel like this point is probably irrelevant. + Show Spoiler + I think Slam makes an extra-good roleblock target if we have are in a cop/watcher setup. Slam is a viable N1 copcheck, so imagine if Watcher and cop both targeted Slam- the watcher would see two people visit (both the roleblocking mafia and the cop). This sort of ties the watcher’s hands—if the watcher want to reveal the information, it essentially trades both blue roles for one scum. That said, I honestly feel like this second point is a layer of thought I haven’t seen players consider when making their night kills or roleblock choices, so I feel this isn’t a strong point. (3) I wasn't roleblocked N2 I also think a watcher might be somewhat more likely because I was not roleblocked N2. I don't really know, I though mafia might think I was a cop/watcher who caught slOosh. Since I was not roleblocked, this suggests to me that maybe mafia feared that a watcher was targeting me. This point doesn’t rely on an assumption regarding Slam’s truthfulness, but it is still not great - scum probably thought it was more likely that the cop/watcher didn’t get info n1 (just based on probability and the play on d2). Anyway, the point also falls through if slOosh didn't deliver KP that night (a watcher couldn't have caught him if gobble did the kill). This is all speculative, but I like thinking through it... it makes me think it's a bit more likely that we have a watcher, but I could very well be wrong :D | ||
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