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Haru I feel like I just do not understand what you are saying 50% or more of the time, I'm sorry but please keep talking to me so I can try to understand.
On June 04 2014 16:12 HaruRH wrote:
(2)
Not ALL who sheeped/pushed for a slosh lynch is scum, but they are definitely inside. The townread are used to exclude those who might be scum VS those who might not be, which in this case is you (which I initially did not townread) and mderg (which is a strong townread). Bunnies and MZ wasn't townread at all, they died town.
I feel like you keep writing slOosh when you should be writing M_Z.
This is the vote count:
On June 01 2014 10:07 Blazinghand wrote:
Meapak_Ziphh (5) - HaruRH, Palmar, mderg, SlOosh, fuba, sqrtofneg1, HaruRH
slOosh(5) - Amiko, Alakaslam, HaruRH, sqrtofneg1, mderg, 27ninjabunnies, Meapak_Ziphh
Sqrtofneg1(0) - fuba
I color coded the confirmed people. There is one scum left.
I don't think there is any grounds to say that there has to be a scum inside the people who sheeped/pushed slOosh.
So, how are you saying:
Not ALL who sheeped/pushed for a slosh lynch is scum, but they are definitely inside.
Especially when, from your post, your primary suspects are fuba and palmar, who were both on M_Z?
[b]In short, either
(a) There is a scum who sheeped/pushed slOosh
(b) Fuba or Palmar is scum
You are saying you think both of these things. But, it cannot be both, unless you think Fuba & Palmar pushed/sheeped slOosh (i.e. that Fuba & Palmar fit into (a)) I don't think they did sheep/push slOosh at all.
Just in case we are confused, I think of "pushing" a lynch as supporting a lynch. I.e. "Amiko pushed the slOosh lynch d2."
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On June 04 2014 16:20 HaruRH wrote:
Amiko:
Who is your top 2 scum reads now? Why?
Who is your top 2 town reads? Why?
Who will you push on d4?
I'll answer this as night is ending -
I think I'll be alive tomorrow, it depends on how desperate scum is, what roles we have, and whether I get killed through WIFOM :3 But I think it is safest to answer it a moment before deadline.
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On June 04 2014 21:32 Palmar wrote:
They don't need to prove it, that's the point.
If someone claims blue, he's confirmed town, unless he gets counterclaimed. If someone counterclaims, one of the two is mafia and we lynch one and then the other in lylo.
You don't need any buffers etc.
I disagree with part of this post but it is not helpful for me to explain why.
I think we claim tomorrow or at deadline (probably no meaningful difference) for sure since we can't no lynch.
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Nevermind, actually claiming at deadline almost certainly better since if someone tries to claim tomorrow they could be dead and not reveal checks/watches/saves
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@Slam: I know you posted a while before and after the slOosh lynch -
On June 01 2014 09:40 Alakaslam wrote:
Although I am here, I am in Nd out
(slOosh lynched)
On June 01 2014 10:12 Alakaslam wrote:
Were you around at the time votes were swapping?
I mean, you can lie and we can't confirm it, but I figure it's worth asking :3
Also FWIW I don't think you've spammed.
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On June 05 2014 05:54 Amiko wrote:
(I became a firebat :3)
Yay! Join the firebats.
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On June 05 2014 05:46 Amiko wrote:Haru I feel like I just do not understand what you are saying 50% or more of the time, I'm sorry but please keep talking to me so I can try to understand. Show nested quote +On June 04 2014 16:12 HaruRH wrote:
(2)
Not ALL who sheeped/pushed for a slosh lynch is scum, but they are definitely inside. The townread are used to exclude those who might be scum VS those who might not be, which in this case is you (which I initially did not townread) and mderg (which is a strong townread). Bunnies and MZ wasn't townread at all, they died town. I feel like you keep writing slOosh when you should be writing M_Z. This is the vote count: Show nested quote +On June 01 2014 10:07 Blazinghand wrote:
Meapak_Ziphh (5) - HaruRH, Palmar, mderg, SlOosh, fuba, sqrtofneg1, HaruRH
slOosh(5) - Amiko, Alakaslam, HaruRH, sqrtofneg1, mderg, 27ninjabunnies, Meapak_Ziphh
Sqrtofneg1(0) - fuba
I color coded the confirmed people. There is one scum left. I don't think there is any grounds to say that there has to be a scum inside the people who sheeped/pushed slOosh. So, how are you saying: Show nested quote +Not ALL who sheeped/pushed for a slosh lynch is scum, but they are definitely inside. Especially when, from your post, your primary suspects are fuba and palmar, who were both on M_Z? [b]In short, either (a) There is a scum who sheeped/pushed slOosh (b) Fuba or Palmar is scum You are saying you think both of these things. But, it cannot be both, unless you think Fuba & Palmar pushed/sheeped slOosh (i.e. that Fuba & Palmar fit into (a)) I don't think they did sheep/push slOosh at all. Just in case we are confused, I think of "pushing" a lynch as supporting a lynch. I.e. "Amiko pushed the slOosh lynch d2."
Yea I think our animosity towards each other lies in misunderstandings. I included slam in my list too.
Both of (a) and (b) can result in scum.
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Okay, be back right after the flip, but I g2g now.
If I die:
Palmar is mafia.
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Maybe you aren't here sqrt, but if you die and Palmar isn't scum, who would you go second?
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On June 05 2014 06:49 sqrtofneg1 wrote:Yay! Join the firebats.
Sson
See the host, but for now
This stuph be
Wait what Terran unit would I be?
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Oh wow the wraith to BH's BC
 BH
But enough spam, I was just here what do you want
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I was wondering if you were present during the vote swaps on d2-
Basically, were you around and not persuaded to go to slOosh?
Or were you not really reading thread?
You can lie easily so I can't put much weight in it, but I am still curious about your answer
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Yeah.
I am wondering if you read people moving to M_Z or not -
i.e. did you consider going to M_Z and decide not to?
or did you not consider moving?
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Gnight :3
I think the best evidence we have this game is the D2 votes. It’s certainly possible that mderg or Alakaslam are scum, but I think the odds are probably in favor voting into the people who wanted to lynch M_Z. Given that multiple people were switching from M_Z to slOosh, I think either player could have saved one of their own with relatively little exposure.
So, in my opinion the pool of people to lynch out of is initially Palmar / fuba / sqrt / Haru.
We can limit this a little further because I am cop.
N1: slOosh
N2: Haru is town and shouldn’t get lynched
N3: ?????? (a secret for now)
Short explanation:
+ Show Spoiler +
N1: Sloosh was suspicious. My general attitude was that M_Z and slOosh were suspicious, with more pressure likely to go onto M_Z, so I could check slOosh and just let M_Z get lynched if slOosh was town.
D2: I didn't want to claim cop because I figured doing so would probably cut off my chance to get any more checks (either die or get roleblocked). I pushed hard on slOosh and made a case that was so good I wanted to trade in my badge for a gun and vigi-shoot everyone who voted slOosh.
N2: I checked Haru with thoughts similar to N1. Haru seemed very scummy to me, but not so much to other people. If he was scum, it's gg. If he isn't, I can keep questioning him him to make him look like a potential mislynch so he wouldn't get killed. I wasn't going to check M_Z since if he was town I was fine with him dying as he had been pretty useless and didn't seem likely to be a blue role.
I won’t talk too much about Haru's play, but basically I keep questioning / doubting Haru even after the check because if he looks like someone I’m willing to mislynch, it means he probably won’t get night killed and it keeps a town in the game that I can confirm.
- Most likely, only one other person will blue claim. In that situation, you can confirm me and that other player.
- It’s also possible (though unlikely) we’ll have three blue claims – remember, scum knows which setup we are in, so scum can claim the role that is not in the game. This is a possibility only because it puts us in a lynch pool of the three blue claims rather than a direct counterclaim. In that case, as long as you are willing to trust that I am town/cop, we lynch the other two claims and win.
- This is pretty much impossible, but if two people claim the same role, gg we win. Lynch one today and one tomorrow.
If we go with the most likely situation (one other blue claim), it’ll come down to reads.
I believe we should lynch in this order:
(1) sqrt
(2) Palmar
(3) fuba
(4) Alakaslam
(5) mderg
Why sqrt first?
Well, two players moved from slOosh to M_Z. Haru, who is confirmed town by my check. The other player is sqrt. He was the last to swap, but at least one more person would be necessary for M_Z to die. So, it’s not as risky as it might seem for him to swap – if he’s wrong, M_Z still doesn’t die… one more person would have to swap, and that player can be a viable mislynch because they swapped onto killing town (they look even worse if slOosh is lynched).
Why Palmar over fuba?
Palmar’s gotten some criticism for his day 3 play. I’d suggest to you that his day 2 play is similarly awful.
+ Show Spoiler +
I think we agree that Palmar’s d3 was more or less useless. He barely commented except some halfhearted remarks to M_Z to try to get information out of someone he claims he was basically certain was scum, yet ignores the conversation and comments through the rest of the day.
But, his day 2 was awful too. Basically, he made a weak case on M_Z day 1. On day 2 he votes it and does nothing more. He doesn’t really followup with M_Z for reads. He doesn’t really encourage people to vote with him (until the very end of the day). He doesn’t really comment on the slOosh lynch in a substantial way. Basically, Palmar’s d2 is almost as bad as his d3.
I think the only thing that is redeeming to Palmar is that slOosh and Palmar were the first two votes on M_Z. I just don’t think that’s enough to make me find Palmar useful, though.
I certainly have suspicions on fuba too, but I have to go with my stronger reads. This game would be a lot better if people had played d3, so I am making do with what I have.
If one of these players is killed or a confirmed town (as the only other blue claim), omit them from the list and continue. We probably lose if Alakaslam/mderg is mafia, but recognize that we probably would have lost anyway on d2 if either had moved their vote to M_Z. I think there are fair points for them, anyway-
Mderg’s vote swap onto slOosh was written in such a way that makes it look really suspicious if he moves back to M_Z, which I think is a good reason to bank on the likelihood that he is town.
Slam could be mafia, but he was semi active around the vote swap to M_Z so I am willing to put him lower on the list. In addition, he was the only one to discuss the defense I mentioned for M_Z which to me is a fair reason to give him townpoints.
In sum, I feel lynching sqrt->Palmar gives us the best chance to win.
If sqrt/Palmar claims blue and becomes confirmed town, Palmar is the remaining lynch.
I can’t guarantee you anything, but I think this is the best route to take. Subject to modification from a check tonight :3
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
Day 4
Alakaslam the Vanilla Town has been shot!
This day ends in 48 hours at 01:00 GMT (+00:00). Whoever has the most votes on them at that time gets lynched.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/nSmsCtU.jpg)
