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On June 24 2014 00:17 roundabound wrote:
1 of the VTs will be claiming JK (i'm assuming at some point). There are 9VTs and 4 mafia within them and 1 blue. There are 3 blue claims with 1 mafia within them.
I think that it is unlikely that sinani is fake, leaving slam or chrom. I don't see motivation for EITHER OF THEM to fake claim. So unless there is no JK (unlikely) or one of them is actually JK (maybe?), we are 50-50 to hit mafia here
If we lynch out of VTs (i'm pretty sure that most people have me as town by this point either way), we also have a 50-50 chance to lynch scum. Not sure what our best avenue is, but I'm leaning towards lynching out of VT because mislynching a blue would be way more catastrophic.
I explained the motivation to fakeclaim, like two posts above this one. We have a much better than 50-50 to hit mafia, chromatically is the only one who has a motivation to fakeclaim.
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On June 23 2014 23:45 strongandbig wrote:
The thing is, if chrome's scum why would be claim miller to the ritocky check? He would know that ritocky is fakeclaiming but why give up the green check? Answer: he would do this if ninja bunnies was also scum. He would have to do it, otherwise we lynch bunnies, get a red result, then ritocky reveals the fakeclaim and chrom doesn't even get the green check.
This makes way more sense as a justification for a fakeclaim than what slam did btw. In a game with a known number of blue roles, there's literally no reason for slam to fakeclaim when he did.
So we have a 50-50 chance of hitting mafia between slam and chrom, and I think there was way more scum motivation for chrom's fakeclaim than for slam's.
##vote: chromatically
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
You just go ahead and assume we're not at lylo there snb. There's 100x more motivation to fake claim if it's lylo because then you claim an extra blue and we auto lynch into a possible town. That's way more likely than what you suggest. There's way more chance to hit mafia in vt's.
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SnB, that world involved Bunnies being scum, and I don't live in that world.
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
We can just lynch ritoky for slipping that he's actually mafia and then afking that would be cool
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On June 24 2014 00:17 roundabound wrote:
from town to scum (out of VTs):
roundabound
Holyflare - VT
ObiWanShinobi - VT
Erandorr replaced by 27ninjabunnies - VT
batsnacks - VT
strongandbig - VT
VayneAuthority - VT
Chairman Ray - VT
ritoky - VT
this is, almost literally, a list ordered by postcount. I feel like this game has already shown it's not that easy.
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whats the slip? coloring kush green?
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
yes and then when questioned he made up some bs excuse about not knowing janitor could target mafia or something despite EVERYONE TALKING ABOUT IT ALL GAME
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
he even comments about kush being ???? when people are saying he could be mafia, and that wasn't even long ago!
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at any rate I just realized there is something incredibly strange about this game. Even if we lynch mafia today it will be 6-4 and scum have 2 KP.
so even if we lynch correctly I think we lose? unless the hosts were expecting mafia to shoot alakaslam who is now outed or some one is lying and we have a JK and he has to guess correctly or something? Or was kush mafia? i dont even know.
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
there's 12 people alive vayne
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also we almost certainly do have a jk
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On June 23 2014 14:34 27ninjabunnies wrote:
And the reason why it's autolose if there's 5 mafia, mafia for sure have 2kp. Which now it's 5 mafia, 7 town. With a ml, 5 mafia to 6 town, and then 2kp puts to 5 mafia-4 town. MAfia wins.
If we lynch correctly, we are at 4mafia with 2kp still. 5m-7t to 4m-7t, and 2kp puts 4m-5t.
We absolutely CANNOT afford a ml these next two days on.
For your guys' viewing pleasure! Also i just woke up, so give me a chance to read.
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oh i didnt count the replacement, carry on. game is making me insane
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roundabound- VT/ mason switch claim (Very odd that rainbows dies the night that their "switch" happened)
Holyflare - VT
ObiWanShinobi - VT
Erandorr replaced by 27ninjabunnies - VT
SLAM- Vet?
batsnacks - VT
strongandbig - VT
VayneAuthority - VT
Sinani-Tracker
Chairman Ray - VT
ritoky - VT
Chrom- tracker
So until we get a JK claim, I'm refusing to believe we have a JK. Marv could have easily faked getting jailed to get more checks. Why he didn't out his checks if there is no jk, well thats another question.
So above I bolded green who we should not lynch today. The rest are up for grabs.
Even though I am super SUPER paranoid that round is mafia this game, for the fact alone that rainbows died the same night he claimed that round was mason, was super weird, I'm willing to leave him alone for another day.
Holyflare has been trying to figure this out and not solely complaining on how this game has gone to shit.
I am town, and I'm not lynching the last 3 blue claims unless we get counterclaims.
So that leaves 6 people left to lynch out of, and 5 are mafia from my perspective.
Omg, guess who are in those 6?! PEOPLE IVE BEEN ON ALL GAME!
Seriously, I should be listened to more.
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On June 23 2014 23:45 strongandbig wrote:
Ok suppose chrom is town tracker and sinani is scum - the only way sinani guesses correctly who chrom visited is by random chance. He knows chrom was tracker so he would visit someone, but there was a very small chance he guesses correctly given that there's more than ten players still left. I'm comfortable saying sinani is actually tracker.
Then for chrom to have visited rainbows, he either would have to be actual tracker, or sergeant using his KP or roleblock.
The thing is, if chrome's scum why would be claim miller to the ritocky check? He would know that ritocky is fakeclaiming but why give up the green check? Answer: he would do this if ninja bunnies was also scum. He would have to do it, otherwise we lynch bunnies, get a red result, then ritocky reveals the fakeclaim and chrom doesn't even get the green check.
This makes way more sense as a justification for a fakeclaim than what slam did btw. In a game with a known number of blue roles, there's literally no reason for slam to fakeclaim when he did.
So we have a 50-50 chance of hitting mafia between slam and chrom, and I think there was way more scum motivation for chrom's fakeclaim than for slam's.
##vote: chromatically
Lol...
If you believe Sinani, then chrome is worth a vote, & so is Bunnies.
Ironically,
if you believe Sinani -- which you do.... then Bunnies is not worth a vote.
~moc
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Oh and ##Vote: Ritoky
Cause there is NO freaking way we should let that claim go on this long.
Though someone may convince me to switch to batsnacks. Both need to die today.
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People think I am fakeclaiming
Read my filter
Why did I openly ask and challenge to be vigged
Estupets
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Actually, After reading that case Moc just quoted, Im starting to wonder if SNB s a better vote. Holy hell that case on chrom is pretty bad.
I don't see any scum motivation for Chrom to fake claim there, especially miller. He could just go with the green check and be cleared basically and get me ML if he was scum. So Im believing Chrom here.
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On June 24 2014 00:17 roundabound wrote:
ObiWanShinobi - VT
ritoky - VT
Erandorr replaced by 27ninjabunnies - VT
Chairman Ray - VT
roundabound (Mocsta/IAmRobik Hydra) - VT
strongandbig - VT
Holyflare - VT
batsnacks - VT
VayneAuthority - VT
Chromatically - TRACKER
sinani206 - TRACKER
Alakaslam - VET
1 of the VTs will be claiming JK (i'm assuming at some point). There are 9VTs and 4 mafia within them and 1 blue. There are 3 blue claims with 1 mafia within them.
I think that it is unlikely that sinani is fake, leaving slam or chrom. I don't see motivation for EITHER OF THEM to fake claim. So unless there is no JK (unlikely) or one of them is actually JK (maybe?), we are 50-50 to hit mafia here
If we lynch out of VTs (i'm pretty sure that most people have me as town by this point either way), we also have a 50-50 chance to lynch scum. Not sure what our best avenue is, but I'm leaning towards lynching out of VT because mislynching a blue would be way more catastrophic.
from town to scum (out of VTs):
roundabound
Holyflare - VT
ObiWanShinobi - VT
Erandorr replaced by 27ninjabunnies - VT
batsnacks - VT
strongandbig - VT
VayneAuthority - VT
Chairman Ray - VT
ritoky - VT
I will say that if we have a JK and the JK is not Slam (that's the only one out of the claimed blues that would make a smidgen of sense), then I am pretty sure who it is and will be highly skeptical of anyone but that persons claim.
This list might be completely fucked though cause of the night kills...just how i'm reading the game at this point.
Then you know who the JK is. Don't say.
I am Drallig and have been in character most of the game
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EPT
