EPTCatastrophe Mafia - Page 258
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IAmRobik
United States5878 Posts
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geript
10024 Posts
On April 11 2014 11:25 Hopeless1der wrote: On the off chance he is actually unlynchable, I'm moving my vote to JAT and assuming that majority mechanics will ensure 2nd most votes will be lynched if 1st most is unlynchable. This is an ok thought, but Oats play in no way lines up with him being 3P, survivor or lynch proof. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
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geript
10024 Posts
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
On April 11 2014 11:52 geript wrote: This is an ok thought, but Oats play in no way lines up with him being 3P, survivor or lynch proof. Why dont you man up geript? I clearly cant be lynchproof so even if you are second you wont die. Show some balls and back up what you say | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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geript
10024 Posts
On April 11 2014 11:25 IAmRobik wrote: I'd lynch Amiko over JAT This is a very good point. JAT has shown that he's willing to work with town and has abilities that are useful to us. If the second leader does get lynched Amiko is a more preferential lynch that JAT IMO. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
If people in the know want me to make more of a defense I can post something more substantive... but otherwise I think it's best for everyone if I stay as a lazy survivor. Simply put, if you are lynching me it's probably because you can't find a good lynch on scum, and that won't become any easier if I die. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On April 11 2014 12:46 geript wrote: If I were you I'd be posting baby seals right now. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
1. Im not scum. 2. Im not dying | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
Confirmed Town Confirmed Scum (Oats is being treated as confirmed scum) Confirmed non-Town + Show Spoiler [Big Spoiler Alert] + On April 03 2014 09:09 GreYMisT wrote: Hour 0 On April 04 2014 01:35 LoneMeow wrote: Hour 16.5 IAmRobik (0): LSB (1): VisceraEyes yamato77 (1): Holyflare austinmcc (1): kitaman27 (1): Dandel Ion VisceraEyes (0): Balla24 (3): iamperfection, Oatsmaster, Palmar Not voting (23): IAmRobik, LSB, austinmcc, Paperscraps, VayneAuthority, Koshi, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Tehpoofter, kitaman27, WaveofShadow, strongandbig, Amiko, Killing, Balla24, syllogism, marvellosity, justanothertownie, Djodref, Foolishness, sandroba, gumshoe, Keirathi On April 04 2014 05:56 LoneMeow wrote: Hour 21 IAmRobik (0): LSB (1): VisceraEyes yamato77 (2): Holyflare, LSB austinmcc (0): kitaman27 (1): Dandel Ion VisceraEyes (0): Balla24 (2): iamperfection, Oatsmaster, marvellosity (2): Palmar, raynpelikoneet Not voting (22): IAmRobik, austinmcc, Paperscraps, VayneAuthority, Koshi, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Tehpoofter, kitaman27, WaveofShadow, strongandbig, Amiko, Killing, Balla24, syllogism, marvellosity, justanothertownie, Djodref, Foolishness, sandroba, gumshoe, Keirathi On April 04 2014 17:54 LoneMeow wrote: Hour 34 IAmRobik (0): iamperfection (1): Foolishness Holyflare (4): sandroba, marvellosity, Dandel Ion, yamato77 LSB (0): Paperscraps (2): Blazinghand, yamato77 (2): Holyflare, LSB kitaman27 (1): VisceraEyes (0): VayneAuthority (2): VisceraEyes, Oatsmaster gumshoe (0): Dandel Ion (1): kitaman27 Blazinghand (2): iamperfection, marvellosity (2): Not voting (12): IAmRobik, austinmcc, VayneAuthority, Hopeless1der, Tehpoofter, strongandbig, Killing, syllogism, justanothertownie, Djodref, gumshoe, Keirathi On April 04 2014 23:27 LoneMeow wrote: Hour 39.5 IAmRobik (0): iamperfection (2): Foolishness, kitaman27 Holyflare (3): sandroba, LSB (0): Paperscraps (7): Blazinghand, yamato77 (1): kitaman27 (1): VisceraEyes (0): VayneAuthority (1): VisceraEyes, gumshoe (0): Dandel Ion (0): Blazinghand (1): marvellosity (1): Not voting (12): IAmRobik, austinmcc, VayneAuthority, Koshi, Hopeless1der, strongandbig, Killing, syllogism, justanothertownie, Djodref, gumshoe, Keirathi On April 05 2014 06:02 LoneMeow wrote: Hour 46 IAmRobik (0): iamperfection (2): Foolishness, Holyflare (2): LSB (0): Paperscraps (13): Blazinghand, Amiko (1): kitaman27 yamato77 (0): Tehpoofter (1): syllogism kitaman27 (0): VisceraEyes (0): VayneAuthority (0): gumshoe (0): Dandel Ion (0): Blazinghand (1): marvellosity (0): Not voting (9): IAmRobik, austinmcc, VayneAuthority, Hopeless1der, Killing, Djodref, sandroba, gumshoe, Keirathi On April 05 2014 08:15 LoneMeow wrote: Hour 48.25 IAmRobik (0): iamperfection (1): Foolishness, Holyflare (0): LSB (0): Paperscraps (12): Blazinghand, Amiko (3): yamato77 (0): Tehpoofter (1): syllogism kitaman27 (0): VisceraEyes (0): VayneAuthority (0): gumshoe (6): Dandel Ion (0): Blazinghand (1): marvellosity (0): Not voting (5): austinmcc, VayneAuthority, Djodref, gumshoe, Keirathi On April 05 2014 09:48 Acrofales wrote: Hour 49.75 IAmRobik (0): iamperfection (1): Foolishness, Holyflare (0): LSB (0): Paperscraps (8): Blazinghand, Amiko (1): yamato77 (0): Tehpoofter (1): syllogism kitaman27 (0): VisceraEyes (0): VayneAuthority (1): gumshoe (16): Dandel Ion (0): Blazinghand (0): marvellosity (0): Not voting (1): Djodref On April 05 2014 10:03 GreYMisT wrote: Hour 50 Day 1 vote count: IAmRobik (0): iamperfection (1): Foolishness, Holyflare (0): LSB (0): Paperscraps (8): Blazinghand, Amiko (1): yamato77 (0): Tehpoofter (1): syllogism kitaman27 (0): VisceraEyes (0): VayneAuthority (1): gumshoe (17): Dandel Ion (0): Blazinghand (0): marvellosity (0): Not voting (1): Djodref Reduced Day 1 vote count: IAmRobik (0): iamperfection (1): Foolishness Holyflare (0): LSB (0): Paperscraps (8): Blazinghand, Tehpoofter, Oatsmaster, iamperfection, Palmar, LSB, kitaman27, VayneAuthority Amiko (1): IAmRobik yamato77 (0): Tehpoofter (1): syllogism kitaman27 (0): VisceraEyes (0): VayneAuthority (1): gumshoe gumshoe (17): sandroba, strongandbig, yamato77, Dandel Ion, Koshi, marvellosity, paperscraps, Holyflare, justanothertownie, Hopeless1der, Keirathi, Amiko, austinmcc, Killing, WaveofShadow, VE Dandel Ion (0): Blazinghand (0): marvellosity (0): Not voting (1): Djodref I'm not going to analyze the day 2 votes because from what I remember of the day and there were essentially two caught scum which in many ways makes any sort of analysis pointless. However there are a few things to note. First, the Paperscraps wagon is exceptionally interesting. Somewhere around Hour 34, this wagon gets started With roughly 10 hours left in the day there are 2 scum and 1 confirmed non-town on the wagon. Six hours later, the wagon adds another third scum and a second confirmed non-town. Of these, only the two confirmed non-town jump off onto the "winning" wagon by the end of the day. This heavily indicates in my opinion that mafia had no preference between the two wagons because both were town. Second, there were two wagons started on confirmed scum on day 1. Scum didn't voluntarily join either wagon at any point. This means shows a mentality that scum aren't likely willing to bus their teammates on day 1. Additionally, the confirmed scum votes we have for the most part on earlier on the wagon instead of towards the middle or later on the wagon. These become important points later on. Third, the Amiko wagon is exceptionally interesting. Kita starts it at around Hour 42 when there's a scramble to get off of the paperscraps wagon. I find it interesting that other than JAt no other non-town elements are happy to jump onto this wagon. This wagon seems like it would be an easy mislynch to help get going if it were Town or not-Scum especially when Kita, Marv and Keirathi are at least tacitly support it. Considering Amiko's pretty early vote on Paperscraps and scum's reluctance to help feed this wagon, I think Amiko is actually lying about being 3P. It's not just the fact that the role claim seems interestingly weak for a 3P survivor given the setup, but seeing as how many items town seems to be able to get/produce/whatever, this looks far more like a scum role than anything else. I'm guessing here but I think Syllogism was probably distancing himself from Amiko; it seems like he knew that his number was up and there's little reason to not to try and separate the out to try and win. Especially so when Amiko as a newer player is far more likely to have an excuse to survive until late game. Fourth, the Dandel Ion wagon or more appropriately the lack thereof. Dandel Ion and IamP have in interesting back and for on Oats where he says: On April 04 2014 00:22 Dandel Ion wrote: Ok Oats is scum because he's trying too hard to be calm and rational, when he just isn't calm and rational as town. That's basically it. This is quite an accurate meta read on Oats. It's also roughly 3 hours into the game. Like it's really odd that Dandel knows about this meta, Oats follows this meta the whole game, Dandel pokes at him off and on throughout the game for it, yet he never pushes Oats as a wagon at any point OR votes for him. Additionally, no confirmed scum ever join in to vote for or push Dandel's wagon. Dandel moves his vote from Kita to Blazinghand to Holyflare to rest on Gumshoe. I know that there are seemingly a lot of people who think Dandel is town (HF did). I don't know what's happened behind the scenes and I haven't played enough with Dandel to have a meta read on him (my understanding is that as scum he tends to give up and ask to be bussed ASAP IIRC). I would just like "people in the know" to reconsider him somewhat if this strikes a chord with you guys. Fifth, another person I'd look at from the vote count is Austin. Usually experienced players tend to throw their vote around as a weapon to pressure people or as a show of confidence that they've caught scum. Austin is a good player and maybe he's been in a funk as of late. Him not voting until very late is odd to me. Add that to the fact that I don't like his push on Killing. No I don't think Killing is a bad target and is a reasonable lynch from what I've seen and red, but I don't like how he's pushed Killing specifically especially when, now, where Killing seems to have claimed something else entirely Austin seems to have forgotten much of this. Specifically, he's pushing on Killing for reasons which I don't particularly find scummy one way or another when there are things that I find (and someone agreed upon) to actually be scummy. Town Austin I can usually understand his points and follow reasonably, but not being able to do so on top of Austin voting late is really starting to bug me. Sixth, for the random stuff... I don't think the votes say much about Hopeless (noted lurker), Killing (not enough relevant meta imo) and a few other of the semi-questionables. Strongandbig looks like he could be in decent scum pile on slots; I'll need to read him later. It clearly doesn't show anything at all about me. I think, considering VE started on scum and hopped around a few times, it shows that VE is more likely to be town because town in general jump around more with their votes than not. Otherwise, I feel like I've wasted the past 4 hours trying to color and type this up and another 1-2 thinking about it when I looked at the end of day vote count at work. fuck my incompetence and sleepyhead | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
VisceraEyes (0): Oatsmaster (11): VisceraEyes, geript, VayneAuthority, Paperscraps, Dandel Ion, sandroba, Amiko, Killing, strongandbig, justanothertownie (2): Palmar, Hopeless1der Palmar (0): Not voting (3): justanothertownie, Oatsmaster, austinmcc Currently Oatsmaster is set to be lynched. With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch. Deadline is Saturday, Apr 12 1:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). + Show Spoiler [Vote counter log] + VOTE: geript voted palmer (Palmar) (post) VOTE: Dandel Ion voted visceraeyes (VisceraEyes) (post) VOTE: VayneAuthority voted visceraeyes (VisceraEyes) (post) VOTE: VisceraEyes voted Oatsmaster (post) VOTE: geript unvoted Palmar (post) VOTE: geript voted Oatsmaster (post) VOTE: VayneAuthority unvoted VisceraEyes (post) VOTE: VayneAuthority voted oatsmaster (Oatsmaster) (post) VOTE: Paperscraps voted Oatsmaster (post) VOTE: Palmar voted justanothertownie (post) VOTE: Dandel Ion unvoted VisceraEyes (post) VOTE: Dandel Ion voted oatsmaster (Oatsmaster) (post) VOTE: sandroba voted oatsmaster (Oatsmaster) (post) VOTE: Amiko voted Oatsmaster (post) VOTE: Killing voted Oatsmaster (post) VOTE: strongandbig voted oatsmaster (Oatsmaster) (post) VOTE: Hopeless1der voted oatsmaster (Oatsmaster) (post) VOTE: IAmRobik voted oatsmaster (Oatsmaster) (post) VOTE: Blazinghand voted oatsmaster (Oatsmaster) (post) VOTE: Hopeless1der unvoted Oatsmaster (post) VOTE: Hopeless1der voted justanothertownie (post) | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On April 11 2014 11:02 IAmRobik wrote: If you couldn't get lynched, you wouldn't be fighting so hard against it. Town hero. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
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geript
10024 Posts
Hopeless prefers JAT; Robik and I prefer Amiko. Other thoughts? | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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geript
10024 Posts
On April 11 2014 18:54 Palmar wrote: I want JAT to be second, that's all that matters. If there are specific reasons why you think he's scum instead of Amiko I'd love to hear them. Voting patterns seem to indicate Amiko as more likely to be scum but I honestly haven't read a word in JAT's filter. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On April 11 2014 18:58 geript wrote: If there are specific reasons why you think he's scum instead of Amiko I'd love to hear them. Voting patterns seem to indicate Amiko as more likely to be scum but I honestly haven't read a word in JAT's filter. He claimed scum. or 3p. I don't really care. He's not town, and I don't think Oats is unlynchable anyway. If Oats somehow is, we at least kill anti-town. | ||
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