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Newbie Mini Mafia LIV - Page 2

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IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 04:29 GMT
#175
On March 26 2014 13:22 OnceKing wrote:
If that's the case, why did you insist that I answer first? You could have answered my question and then asked your question again, as I did. Robik gave three very quick reads off of only a few posts. Let's break it down:

sqrt - jokes and one liners during RVS. Lots of 'em. Made no posts afterwards, yet. Mysteriously Robik's got a town read off of that.
Valenius - qualification of what I mean when I talk about policy. Robik town reads it, slightly.
me - brings game out of RVS and now we're actually talking about things. Robik thinks I'm scummy.

##VOTE: IAmRobik
Want to explain this, Robik? You seem to think you know an awful lot.

I give reads off of minute things I pick up. I don't hold back my reads. I'll clear someone for the most minuscule detail. That's what I do. If that's your reason for voting me that's idiotic. How about you actually give some reads instead of contributing some random nonsense. kthxbye
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 04:31 GMT
#176
RE: Sqrt

In what world does a mafia come into the game and start talking to himself for 10 posts? Mafia has all the reason in the world to sit back and not do shit and contribute when something is happening and then push some random town who is on the chopping blocks. I don't give a damn if it was 10 posts of filler about how he's doing today and how his HS run was going.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 04:36 GMT
#178
If a random lurker is mafia, maybe his teammate will tell him. IDK. It's infinitely more productive than saying "hey, let's lynch all lurkers" cause it doesn't put any pressure on anyone specific.


UTR = under the radar = lurking
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 04:45 GMT
#181
I respectfully disagree with what you are saying Eden. Clearing people for my perceived notion of town vs mafia play is not terrible -- it's how I play the game. You might not agree. You might not like it. But it is what it is. And my reads in those cases are damn good, so you better start respecting them.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 05:01 GMT
#187
On March 26 2014 13:49 Eden1892 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2014 13:45 IAmRobik wrote:
I respectfully disagree with what you are saying Eden. Clearing people for my perceived notion of town vs mafia play is not terrible -- it's how I play the game.

Then the way you play the game is terrible. None of your reads make any logical sense and frankly look manufactured.

That's fine that you feel that way. My style isn't for everyone. That doesn't mean that I'm wrong and that doesn't mean that I'm bad. I've probably played more games of mafia than almost anyone here (in this game and most of the players on this site)...in the process I've picked up on small intricacies in the game and I'm able to clear people for things that other people don't notice. You don't have to like it, but that's how I play. None of that makes me mafia. In fact, it makes me more likely to be town. As mafia, I wouldn't want to put myself in a position where I've cleared people and then have to fucking backtrack and retract and vote on people who I said were town. Anyway. I'm town, thus you're voting for a townie right now. You should prolly unvote if you're town and want to win the game.









(For what it's worth, I think you're town. Even though your conclusion is wrong, your thoughts are very logical.)
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 05:18 GMT
#191
On March 26 2014 14:13 Eden1892 wrote:
Okay, Robik, that's all well and good that you normally look at insignificant details in absence of more plausible explanations. My vote isn't (necessarily) going to stay on you for the reads; early game does depend on throwing shit out and seeing whether or not it sticks, after all. We have time to see what you do from here. I'm a little willing to accept the argument that you're putting yourself out there a lot and making yourself commit to positions that would be a little awkward to retract as mafia, but I'll need to see more to determine how valid that argument is.

What's sticking out is your "Do it instead of say it" mentality toward OK. I completely agree with it. The problem is (a) OnceKing is doing it, by trying to convince people to accept his attitude toward lurkers he's creating an environment that will allow him to push the lurker lynch once it comes up should it come up; and (b) you're not taking your own advice, asking people to pressure others and telling people to do instead of say and then not voting your scum read.

It's also strange to me that you say my thoughts are logical but my conclusion is wrong. That can only be true if I'm missing a crucial piece of information that would change the logic of my thoughts and lead me to the right conclusion. Obviously to an extent I am since I don't have your alignment, but assuming you are town, there should be a town explanation for the discrepancy between "do don't say" and not voting the scumread. What is it?

1) I disagree with your assessment that OK is doing and not just saying. You could make the same claim that he's not practicing what he's preaching because he's not voting a quiet person and he's voting one of the most vocal people in the game.

2) It's going to be difficult for you to just trust me on this, but I don't always throw out my vote on someone who I have a scumread on, so if you want, go read foundations. I called out Joey for stuff that wasn't all that significant to begin with and the read kept growing and growing and then I was the last person to vote on him d1 (a vote that failed because two other townies swtiched to the other wagon at the last second). I like to get my thoughts out there and explain them, which is exactly what I've been doing. Me not placing a vote 40 hours before end of day doesn't mean dick. There's a ton of other stuff that can happen between now and then.

3) The crucial piece of information that you're missing is that you've never played with me before. Thus it's logical that you would draw these wrong conclusions about my play because you don't know what a town or mafia game from me looks like.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 05:38 GMT
#193
On March 26 2014 14:26 Eden1892 wrote:
I think you're misunderstanding OK's policy. "Preferentially lynch lurkers" means "lynch a lurker in absence of other considerations." In economics we use the phrase ceteris paribus -- all else the same -- meaning that all other variables equal you lynch a lurker. Essentially if you and I were the wagons, I had like 4 posts the whole game and you had, Iunno, 400 posts, and OK felt we were equally scum (or at least that the differences were inconsequential), he would kill me over you. There's nowhere to put his vote right now to satisfy this because we don't have multiple scum players of variable activity levels.

It's fine that you don't vote your scum read right off the bat, it's just weird to me that you criticize OK for not voting an inactive when you've just acknowledged there are extenuating circumstances to the very principle you're using to criticize him.

And I'm not talking about meta arguments here; that's just moving the issue back a step. The question isn't "do you do this as town?" it's "why do you do this as town?" Talk to me a little bit about the rationale behind your approach to the game; I'm feeling better here but I want to get in your head a little more before I pull my vote.

Based off of the 2 newbie games that I've played, the mafia were definitely people that posted only a couple times in the days. I assume that is where OK's "policy" is coming from. Thus, I don't feel ceteris paribus really holds any weight.

Regardless: my stance is that while I'm actively trying to pressure people and clear people, he's talking about the mechanics of what he'd like to do and not actually doing it. I didn't read what he said as him "trying to get people on board." I don't think that voting someone is as indicative of trying to get someone lynched as putting forth a case -- which is what I feel I did. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I need to reread and reconsider. It was my initial impression. I like that he's been asking people for their opinions of the whole situation, that reads townie, but I don't like that he hasn't really made his opinions felt up to this point.

As for getting in my head and explaining why I do what I do. I do it because I believe it. If I read someone as town, even off of something minor, then I'm going to vocalize it. I'm going to do the same thing if I think something is scummy. Me voting or not voting doesn't indicate anything. I'm pushing. I'm giving reads. That's what I'm doing. Sometimes I'll make a play and say something I don't believe in to gauge reaction and see if someone sheeps something for poor reasoning (like I did in the first newbie game I played here on n1ko), but most of the time, everything that I write will be 100% genuine. Up to this point, I stand by everything that I have written.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 14:34 GMT
#249
Just finished up with reading up to pg 11. Eden super fucking town. As is Roland Jarvis.

Analysis of RJ vs LT
Both come into the thread after either a long absence or no posts at all. RJ picks people and analyzes them in several posts. These post flow naturally and feel like they follow some sort of logical progression. The same cannot be said for LT who comes in after an absence and makes one "long" posts that was more summary + meta than discussion of what's going on this game.

On the other hand, he does take a stand on a lot of people, and generally his take is that a lot of people are town. This is pretty townie, especially since he makes it a point to call people town that some people don't even have opinions on.

Meh, I don't know if that's natural flow though.

I'll reread and reassess.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 14:35 GMT
#250
Just saw the vote counts. We need to make sure that we consolidate wagons by tomorrow morning so that we can have some direction and so that it's not a clusterfuck at the end of the day.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 14:37 GMT
#251
On March 26 2014 20:31 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Show nested quote +
- Reads on Valenius and Pixalated. ...how? Valenius asked some good questions to develop OnceKing's policy, but that's all. Certainly a good start but not nearly enough to declare him "super town" or "cleared." Especially in light of the fact that he said Pixalated is neutral-to-scummy... I have Pixalated as neutral-to-town if anything, but to be honest they've done virtually the same thing here (not post much, make solid contributions where they did). There's a lack of explanation for either read, which on its own doesn't say much, but...

ZzZ. I knew I should've tried posting that part some other time. Or maybe I should've approached it with more subtlety (see: any subtlety at all).

Was trying to scumbait with it when questioning Cavalinho and sqrt. Was trying to see if they would piggyback off of it. Went back and deleted those sections specifically to try.

My true reads:
Valenius leans town at best. I'm hesitant to call him anything at this stage of the game, when his only post is at best asking for a PAINFULLY obvious clarification on a policy. Or in other words, in line with what everyone else has said.

Pixelated is leaning town. He's had more posts and has given reads on sqrt and Valenius, but the main crux of their points have been similar to what OK and others in the thread have said (not much to be said this early into the game, however). He was however the first to defend OK's post (outside of OK), and rightly so. If we're continuing with the Cavalinho lynch, it is...unlikely for them to simultaneously bandwagon on a possible lynch and defend the person in question.


Show nested quote +
- His position on Cavalinho is inconsistently soft wrt the rest of his list. Notice the "almost" above -- the one big exception is the guy that I personally think is obviously scum. He does some lip service to the idea (e.g. "these things should mark him clear scum"), but then handwaves every point he raises for Cavalinho on a shaky meta argument (e.g. "mark him as clear scum, but... might just be his playstyle). He says Cavalinho is "maybe the most scummiest read he has"*, but then declares sqrt his "probable" lynch target today. There's a lot of waffling on Cavalinho that isn't present with the others. (PREVIEW EDIT: Even concedes the case is strong, but still has sqrt as his top suspect. p l s)

This is again going off of my experience with Cavalinho in LII, though the more you prod, the more I think you may be right about me softballing Cavalinho. I may be trying to discern too much off meta, and am letting how LII Day 1 went color my view of the game and his (pretty scummy) actions too much.

Show nested quote +
- His rationale for sqrt is weak. Of a handful of inactives so far he's singling out one post of sqrt's (the "I've never drawn mafia" post) as the thing that's so disconcerting to him? Already zeroed in on sqrt being a scum lurker and wants to lynch him over aforesaid "maybe most scummiest read"*? That's just strange to me because nothing that sqrt has done has been alignment-indicative yet.

As I EXPLICITLY note, it was posted AFTER the serious posting began, and AFTER IAmRobik's wtf on OK. The timestamp is key: if it were before that, and even OK's post, whatever. idgaf because that was part of the joke phase. That's what I find the most disconcerting of his posting, versus Valenius (whose post at least addressed something serious).

Show nested quote +
- Preview edit point: That last question is such a softball! Ideal to ask your fake scum read and your scum buddy, terrible as town. Why wouldn't he ask about the things Cavalinho and sqrt are doing that makes them suspicious to him?

My main issue with sqrt again is the timing of his post and decision to start lurking at that juncture, which makes me far more leery of him over Valenius. Look at the time stamps: 3.5 hours between OK's post and Valenius's question and his sleep post, 4 minutes between Robik's wtf post and his highlighted post, and 11 minutes between the post I highlighted and his sleep post. Certainly there's time to post...something serious? When we had clearly moved past the jokes votes?

Putting him among my top scum reads is/was a means to pressure him into posting something of value and see if he posts anything that makes me pursue that line of inquiry. Similarly, the main thing which Cavalinho isn't doing is giving anything of substance in his posts. This is also why I was posting a full reads list, to see if there was any piggybacking going on.




The fuck?
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 14:40 GMT
#252
On March 26 2014 20:33 Pixalated wrote:
What.

If you are scumbaiting why are you revealing your trap before they even have the chance to fall for it?

woah...to clarify, this is what I meant when I wrote "the fuck" regarding LT's post...i responded before I even finished reading the rest of LT's post
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 15:53 GMT
#254
The number of people suspicious of (myself included), and voting for, cavalinho is a bit unnerving. I do agree that he's been the scummiest, but I've yet to see someone defend him (other than maybe LT). IDK. I'm getting the heebie jeebies from this.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 17:32 GMT
#274
On March 27 2014 01:44 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
Okay, going down the filter list.

OnceKing brings up policy.
I kind of disagree with bringing it up so early, but I think it was a town mindset that he did it.
I read town.

Eden is clearly town.

Val hasn't been doing much, other than questioning the lurker policy, (kind of like me) so no read on him.

LT clears Val in this post:

On March 26 2014 19:13 Lord Tolkien wrote:
I still need to read the LIII mafia game thoroughly. However.

OnceKing sounds town as all fk. I was originally suspicious of his initial "serious" post due to OK's early Day 1 behavior versus early Day 1 LII newbie mafia game and was going to comment on it, but I re-read the old thread and reversed my initial opinion on it (originally thought it was inconsistent, but I reread his case on Amiko and it didn't mention the lurker lynch policy). He's been pushing town towards active discussion since then, asking for reads, and generally steering conversation towards positive goals, so he's establishing himself as town thus far.

IAmRobik also feels town to me, though I still question why he feels OK's post is out of place given the context (unless it was scumbait, that was my first thought). The post is still useful pressure and discussion for town, though, and there is no reason for scum to be so forward, so early on in the day, especially with the possible game-states (no godfather game-state). And his posts subsequent read fairly town.

Valenius is super town in my eyes, he's cleared for me.

Pixelated is neutral or slightly scummy to me.

Eden feels even more town for me. He's actively pushing the Cavalinho case and scumhunting aggressively in Day 1, while being the most active contributor to the thread thus far. Clearest town poster in my mind, as he's giving reasoned arguments here.

Cavalinho sounds...well, aggressive in all his posts. And he's OMGUSing without presenting a case, period. But given his past game behavior, he also does this when he's town so I'm not sure if my scrumread on him is wrong. Like, this is almost a repeat of LII Day 1 in terms of the Cavalinho lynch progression, however without any substance from him. I'm leaving him as possible scum atm tho I'm confused by it. Maybe the most scummiest read I have, even his past town play aside. Like
Show nested quote +
I'll answer your question when you answer mine.
and
Show nested quote +
No, I simply felt like you were dodging the question.
should mark him as clear scum, but...might just be his playstyle.

Show nested quote +
I also happen to think his OMGUS vote is him trying to look innocent because he's aware of his meta (not the post beforehand he noted that Robik townread him in a previous game because he OMGUS'd then), but that can go either way. What's telling is that he fails to develop his vote, he just puts it down and insists it'll be me or him today. That's dumb and not what a town player should be doing.

This is actually a strong analysis of what I was trying to say.

You know what, Cavalinho isn't angry and pissed off enough to have the righteous indignation like his LII newbie game, nor still tries to contribute. Or hell, contribute an actual case for his OMGUSing.

sqrtofneg1 has thus far been fairly disconcerting to me. I indulged him with the Hearthstone convo, and I think that's irrelevant to the thread thus far. It was a fair shot at getting something going, if inflating his filter/post. After the first actual serious post to pop up Day 1 (the OK policy lynch), he posted this
Show nested quote +
Fun fact: I've been mafia once, only once, in my fair amount of irl games.
and didn't respond to the looming topic at hand, then had a sleep post. Like, its non-contributive lurking at best. There was definitely things available to comment on at the time of his sleep post. Hell, by the time of that post, IAmRobik had already made his wtf post about OnceKing's lynch policy post. It piggybacks off IAmRobik's joke posts, but he at least follows up with substance after there's clearly something to respond to. He still has time to become an active contributor, but seems to be a scum lurker to me. Probably my primary lynch target today because I'm still fking confused by the signals given off by Cavalinho's playstyle and posting patterns.

Show nested quote +
On March 26 2014 13:31 IAmRobik wrote:
RE: Sqrt

In what world does a mafia come into the game and start talking to himself for 10 posts? Mafia has all the reason in the world to sit back and not do shit and contribute when something is happening and then push some random town who is on the chopping blocks. I don't give a damn if it was 10 posts of filler about how he's doing today and how his HS run was going.

The exact same reason you were pushing on OK for: because it's good to make the appearance of contribution. idgaf about the HS posts too much, but the fact he continued the joke posting and made a sleep post before contributing anything useful makes me unhappy.

Quick point to RolandJarvis before the plunge, that was a continued joke post. I was jokingly referencing the LII newbie game where I was OMGUSing OK hard for focusing on me Day 1 (mostly for some inconsistencies in his case). Posted that and the correction right as OK was posting the policy lynch post (note the policy lynch post being nestled between that post and the edit), which is the first serious post of the game, which should have been a clue. I'm overall happy with your contribution, however, and I would recommend you read the LII newbie game, since quite a few of the players here were in that game (and should give you a general idea of our playstyles as town (I think all of us present played as town that game), so you can get a feel for us. You voiced the concern about OK only voicing his read on IAmRobik, but his playstyle is (at least, going off his LII and stated gameplay) to only give his strongest reads. So this isn't inconsistent or scummy for me, just how he plays. Just like how Cavalinho still confuses the fk out of me.

Or you might have and the mistaken use of punctuation in the post confused you.



Overall, I'm quite happy with the way this thread activity has been. no ded gaem

Also, my sleep schedule is fked up, so I may be responding at odd times such as this.

Even though he hasn't done anything. Why would he do that? But wait, there's more.
His next post is this:
On March 26 2014 20:31 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Show nested quote +
- Reads on Valenius and Pixalated. ...how? Valenius asked some good questions to develop OnceKing's policy, but that's all. Certainly a good start but not nearly enough to declare him "super town" or "cleared." Especially in light of the fact that he said Pixalated is neutral-to-scummy... I have Pixalated as neutral-to-town if anything, but to be honest they've done virtually the same thing here (not post much, make solid contributions where they did). There's a lack of explanation for either read, which on its own doesn't say much, but...

ZzZ. I knew I should've tried posting that part some other time. Or maybe I should've approached it with more subtlety (see: any subtlety at all).

Was trying to scumbait with it when questioning Cavalinho and sqrt. Was trying to see if they would piggyback off of it. Went back and deleted those sections specifically to try.

My true reads:
Valenius leans town at best. I'm hesitant to call him anything at this stage of the game, when his only post is at best asking for a PAINFULLY obvious clarification on a policy. Or in other words, in line with what everyone else has said.

Pixelated is leaning town. He's had more posts and has given reads on sqrt and Valenius, but the main crux of their points have been similar to what OK and others in the thread have said (not much to be said this early into the game, however). He was however the first to defend OK's post (outside of OK), and rightly so. If we're continuing with the Cavalinho lynch, it is...unlikely for them to simultaneously bandwagon on a possible lynch and defend the person in question.


Show nested quote +
- His position on Cavalinho is inconsistently soft wrt the rest of his list. Notice the "almost" above -- the one big exception is the guy that I personally think is obviously scum. He does some lip service to the idea (e.g. "these things should mark him clear scum"), but then handwaves every point he raises for Cavalinho on a shaky meta argument (e.g. "mark him as clear scum, but... might just be his playstyle). He says Cavalinho is "maybe the most scummiest read he has"*, but then declares sqrt his "probable" lynch target today. There's a lot of waffling on Cavalinho that isn't present with the others. (PREVIEW EDIT: Even concedes the case is strong, but still has sqrt as his top suspect. p l s)

This is again going off of my experience with Cavalinho in LII, though the more you prod, the more I think you may be right about me softballing Cavalinho. I may be trying to discern too much off meta, and am letting how LII Day 1 went color my view of the game and his (pretty scummy) actions too much.

Show nested quote +
- His rationale for sqrt is weak. Of a handful of inactives so far he's singling out one post of sqrt's (the "I've never drawn mafia" post) as the thing that's so disconcerting to him? Already zeroed in on sqrt being a scum lurker and wants to lynch him over aforesaid "maybe most scummiest read"*? That's just strange to me because nothing that sqrt has done has been alignment-indicative yet.

As I EXPLICITLY note, it was posted AFTER the serious posting began, and AFTER IAmRobik's wtf on OK. The timestamp is key: if it were before that, and even OK's post, whatever. idgaf because that was part of the joke phase. That's what I find the most disconcerting of his posting, versus Valenius (whose post at least addressed something serious).

Show nested quote +
- Preview edit point: That last question is such a softball! Ideal to ask your fake scum read and your scum buddy, terrible as town. Why wouldn't he ask about the things Cavalinho and sqrt are doing that makes them suspicious to him?

My main issue with sqrt again is the timing of his post and decision to start lurking at that juncture, which makes me far more leery of him over Valenius. Look at the time stamps: 3.5 hours between OK's post and Valenius's question and his sleep post, 4 minutes between Robik's wtf post and his highlighted post, and 11 minutes between the post I highlighted and his sleep post. Certainly there's time to post...something serious? When we had clearly moved past the jokes votes?

Putting him among my top scum reads is/was a means to pressure him into posting something of value and see if he posts anything that makes me pursue that line of inquiry. Similarly, the main thing which Cavalinho isn't doing is giving anything of substance in his posts. This is also why I was posting a full reads list, to see if there was any piggybacking going on.



He demotes Val to leaning town. Maybe he now realizes that he was too obvious in pushing Val for town.
If he's mafia, Val's also mafia.

+ Show Spoiler +
He also makes a scumtrap that's horribly planned out.
Top mafia in my eyes.

Robik's playing aggressive, as he normally does.
He's been pressuring pretty much everybody, as a town should do.
The one thing that I don't like is that he got a town read on my on joke posts before the game. that's strange.
I read town.

Pixalated is probably town. He's trying to logically put together the picture, and he's a bit quiet. He's suspicious of the right guys, he's cleared the right guys. I say town, with blue role. The blue role is because he's quiet.

Cav seems mafia, with the same reasons as Robik and Eden.

RJ is town, good reads, good logic.

So it's either Cav + someone who I misread, or LT and Val.


I disagree with this assessment. I think that he demotes Val to "leaning town" to give himself an "out" in case he needs to vote for Val later. Thus if LT is in fact mafia, I think that Val is more likely town.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 17:43 GMT
#276
On March 27 2014 02:36 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2014 02:32 IAmRobik wrote:
On March 27 2014 01:44 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
Okay, going down the filter list.

OnceKing brings up policy.
I kind of disagree with bringing it up so early, but I think it was a town mindset that he did it.
I read town.

Eden is clearly town.

Val hasn't been doing much, other than questioning the lurker policy, (kind of like me) so no read on him.

LT clears Val in this post:

On March 26 2014 19:13 Lord Tolkien wrote:
I still need to read the LIII mafia game thoroughly. However.

OnceKing sounds town as all fk. I was originally suspicious of his initial "serious" post due to OK's early Day 1 behavior versus early Day 1 LII newbie mafia game and was going to comment on it, but I re-read the old thread and reversed my initial opinion on it (originally thought it was inconsistent, but I reread his case on Amiko and it didn't mention the lurker lynch policy). He's been pushing town towards active discussion since then, asking for reads, and generally steering conversation towards positive goals, so he's establishing himself as town thus far.

IAmRobik also feels town to me, though I still question why he feels OK's post is out of place given the context (unless it was scumbait, that was my first thought). The post is still useful pressure and discussion for town, though, and there is no reason for scum to be so forward, so early on in the day, especially with the possible game-states (no godfather game-state). And his posts subsequent read fairly town.

Valenius is super town in my eyes, he's cleared for me.

Pixelated is neutral or slightly scummy to me.

Eden feels even more town for me. He's actively pushing the Cavalinho case and scumhunting aggressively in Day 1, while being the most active contributor to the thread thus far. Clearest town poster in my mind, as he's giving reasoned arguments here.

Cavalinho sounds...well, aggressive in all his posts. And he's OMGUSing without presenting a case, period. But given his past game behavior, he also does this when he's town so I'm not sure if my scrumread on him is wrong. Like, this is almost a repeat of LII Day 1 in terms of the Cavalinho lynch progression, however without any substance from him. I'm leaving him as possible scum atm tho I'm confused by it. Maybe the most scummiest read I have, even his past town play aside. Like
Show nested quote +
I'll answer your question when you answer mine.
and
Show nested quote +
No, I simply felt like you were dodging the question.
should mark him as clear scum, but...might just be his playstyle.

Show nested quote +
I also happen to think his OMGUS vote is him trying to look innocent because he's aware of his meta (not the post beforehand he noted that Robik townread him in a previous game because he OMGUS'd then), but that can go either way. What's telling is that he fails to develop his vote, he just puts it down and insists it'll be me or him today. That's dumb and not what a town player should be doing.

This is actually a strong analysis of what I was trying to say.

You know what, Cavalinho isn't angry and pissed off enough to have the righteous indignation like his LII newbie game, nor still tries to contribute. Or hell, contribute an actual case for his OMGUSing.

sqrtofneg1 has thus far been fairly disconcerting to me. I indulged him with the Hearthstone convo, and I think that's irrelevant to the thread thus far. It was a fair shot at getting something going, if inflating his filter/post. After the first actual serious post to pop up Day 1 (the OK policy lynch), he posted this
Show nested quote +
Fun fact: I've been mafia once, only once, in my fair amount of irl games.
and didn't respond to the looming topic at hand, then had a sleep post. Like, its non-contributive lurking at best. There was definitely things available to comment on at the time of his sleep post. Hell, by the time of that post, IAmRobik had already made his wtf post about OnceKing's lynch policy post. It piggybacks off IAmRobik's joke posts, but he at least follows up with substance after there's clearly something to respond to. He still has time to become an active contributor, but seems to be a scum lurker to me. Probably my primary lynch target today because I'm still fking confused by the signals given off by Cavalinho's playstyle and posting patterns.

Show nested quote +
On March 26 2014 13:31 IAmRobik wrote:
RE: Sqrt

In what world does a mafia come into the game and start talking to himself for 10 posts? Mafia has all the reason in the world to sit back and not do shit and contribute when something is happening and then push some random town who is on the chopping blocks. I don't give a damn if it was 10 posts of filler about how he's doing today and how his HS run was going.

The exact same reason you were pushing on OK for: because it's good to make the appearance of contribution. idgaf about the HS posts too much, but the fact he continued the joke posting and made a sleep post before contributing anything useful makes me unhappy.

Quick point to RolandJarvis before the plunge, that was a continued joke post. I was jokingly referencing the LII newbie game where I was OMGUSing OK hard for focusing on me Day 1 (mostly for some inconsistencies in his case). Posted that and the correction right as OK was posting the policy lynch post (note the policy lynch post being nestled between that post and the edit), which is the first serious post of the game, which should have been a clue. I'm overall happy with your contribution, however, and I would recommend you read the LII newbie game, since quite a few of the players here were in that game (and should give you a general idea of our playstyles as town (I think all of us present played as town that game), so you can get a feel for us. You voiced the concern about OK only voicing his read on IAmRobik, but his playstyle is (at least, going off his LII and stated gameplay) to only give his strongest reads. So this isn't inconsistent or scummy for me, just how he plays. Just like how Cavalinho still confuses the fk out of me.

Or you might have and the mistaken use of punctuation in the post confused you.



Overall, I'm quite happy with the way this thread activity has been. no ded gaem

Also, my sleep schedule is fked up, so I may be responding at odd times such as this.

Even though he hasn't done anything. Why would he do that? But wait, there's more.
His next post is this:
On March 26 2014 20:31 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Show nested quote +
- Reads on Valenius and Pixalated. ...how? Valenius asked some good questions to develop OnceKing's policy, but that's all. Certainly a good start but not nearly enough to declare him "super town" or "cleared." Especially in light of the fact that he said Pixalated is neutral-to-scummy... I have Pixalated as neutral-to-town if anything, but to be honest they've done virtually the same thing here (not post much, make solid contributions where they did). There's a lack of explanation for either read, which on its own doesn't say much, but...

ZzZ. I knew I should've tried posting that part some other time. Or maybe I should've approached it with more subtlety (see: any subtlety at all).

Was trying to scumbait with it when questioning Cavalinho and sqrt. Was trying to see if they would piggyback off of it. Went back and deleted those sections specifically to try.

My true reads:
Valenius leans town at best. I'm hesitant to call him anything at this stage of the game, when his only post is at best asking for a PAINFULLY obvious clarification on a policy. Or in other words, in line with what everyone else has said.

Pixelated is leaning town. He's had more posts and has given reads on sqrt and Valenius, but the main crux of their points have been similar to what OK and others in the thread have said (not much to be said this early into the game, however). He was however the first to defend OK's post (outside of OK), and rightly so. If we're continuing with the Cavalinho lynch, it is...unlikely for them to simultaneously bandwagon on a possible lynch and defend the person in question.


Show nested quote +
- His position on Cavalinho is inconsistently soft wrt the rest of his list. Notice the "almost" above -- the one big exception is the guy that I personally think is obviously scum. He does some lip service to the idea (e.g. "these things should mark him clear scum"), but then handwaves every point he raises for Cavalinho on a shaky meta argument (e.g. "mark him as clear scum, but... might just be his playstyle). He says Cavalinho is "maybe the most scummiest read he has"*, but then declares sqrt his "probable" lynch target today. There's a lot of waffling on Cavalinho that isn't present with the others. (PREVIEW EDIT: Even concedes the case is strong, but still has sqrt as his top suspect. p l s)

This is again going off of my experience with Cavalinho in LII, though the more you prod, the more I think you may be right about me softballing Cavalinho. I may be trying to discern too much off meta, and am letting how LII Day 1 went color my view of the game and his (pretty scummy) actions too much.

Show nested quote +
- His rationale for sqrt is weak. Of a handful of inactives so far he's singling out one post of sqrt's (the "I've never drawn mafia" post) as the thing that's so disconcerting to him? Already zeroed in on sqrt being a scum lurker and wants to lynch him over aforesaid "maybe most scummiest read"*? That's just strange to me because nothing that sqrt has done has been alignment-indicative yet.

As I EXPLICITLY note, it was posted AFTER the serious posting began, and AFTER IAmRobik's wtf on OK. The timestamp is key: if it were before that, and even OK's post, whatever. idgaf because that was part of the joke phase. That's what I find the most disconcerting of his posting, versus Valenius (whose post at least addressed something serious).

Show nested quote +
- Preview edit point: That last question is such a softball! Ideal to ask your fake scum read and your scum buddy, terrible as town. Why wouldn't he ask about the things Cavalinho and sqrt are doing that makes them suspicious to him?

My main issue with sqrt again is the timing of his post and decision to start lurking at that juncture, which makes me far more leery of him over Valenius. Look at the time stamps: 3.5 hours between OK's post and Valenius's question and his sleep post, 4 minutes between Robik's wtf post and his highlighted post, and 11 minutes between the post I highlighted and his sleep post. Certainly there's time to post...something serious? When we had clearly moved past the jokes votes?

Putting him among my top scum reads is/was a means to pressure him into posting something of value and see if he posts anything that makes me pursue that line of inquiry. Similarly, the main thing which Cavalinho isn't doing is giving anything of substance in his posts. This is also why I was posting a full reads list, to see if there was any piggybacking going on.



He demotes Val to leaning town. Maybe he now realizes that he was too obvious in pushing Val for town.
If he's mafia, Val's also mafia.

+ Show Spoiler +
He also makes a scumtrap that's horribly planned out.
Top mafia in my eyes.

Robik's playing aggressive, as he normally does.
He's been pressuring pretty much everybody, as a town should do.
The one thing that I don't like is that he got a town read on my on joke posts before the game. that's strange.
I read town.

Pixalated is probably town. He's trying to logically put together the picture, and he's a bit quiet. He's suspicious of the right guys, he's cleared the right guys. I say town, with blue role. The blue role is because he's quiet.

Cav seems mafia, with the same reasons as Robik and Eden.

RJ is town, good reads, good logic.

So it's either Cav + someone who I misread, or LT and Val.


I disagree with this assessment. I think that he demotes Val to "leaning town" to give himself an "out" in case he needs to vote for Val later. Thus if LT is in fact mafia, I think that Val is more likely town.


Hmm, but why would he call Val as town in the first place?

I mean... he has to townread people as either alignment. I'm not him. I don't know why he makes the reads/plays he makes.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 17:51 GMT
#281
Valenius...just read the thread and give reads. Push your reads. If you do that we'll be gravy
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 17:51 GMT
#283
On March 27 2014 02:50 Valenius wrote:
##Unvote

doesn't make much sense to keep that vote on considering we've progressed past Hearthstone talk.

speaking of which...I just wanna get home and play HS. This stupid "work" thing keeps getting in the way of my fun!
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 18:24 GMT
#288
On March 27 2014 03:14 Cavalinho wrote:
Here are the few reads that I've managed to gather thus far:

You can get my Eden read from above. If LT is town, then Eden is almost certainly mafia due to the way he pushes information and pounces an anything he perceives as weakness. It looks like he's more concerned with finding loopholes in reasoning rather than finding the mindset behind the moves players are making. While this can be construed as scumhunting, it doesn't necessarily mean that it is just because he looks busy. I'll admit, my own play has started somewhat sloppily and I think that his push was warranted...for a time. It looks like he's more concerned with making himself right rather than finding the right answer.

There's also the point that he's actually started skimming my posts and then ignoring what I'm saying. This can be a mistake, but considering the way he so aggressively goes after certain information (and then ignoring what he finds) doesn't lead me to believe so.

That being said, the points Eden brings up against LT make a whole lot of sense. LT's read on me is bosh. He says I'm practically confirmed mafia because I wanted someone to clarify something before I answered their question...What is that? Is that even a thing? I don't think that Val has really done enough to warrant being cleared as town, either. (Though Robik has done the same, and I generally think Robik comes up with pretty solid reads.) LT is scummy, and not just because he thinks I'm scum (which, considering the way this thread is going, is really saying something).

OnceKing is pretty clear town to me. I thought he had a strong town game before, and I think he has one now. Policy lynch weirdness aside, it's clear that he made those posts with a town agenda in mind and that he's done plenty to keep us occupied in trying to solve the game's mystery. His questioning is solid and his logic is pretty easy to follow. I like it.

Sqrt leans town for similar reasons. He doesn't thrust himself into the spotlight like OK does, but it seems like he's pretty focused on finding the right kinds of information. I don't think I have any real reasons to suspect him of anything right now.

Pixelated is slightly town. I've already put together why the initial case against me was derp, but all he has said was "I don't think that's good enough." That's...not a good answer. At all. It's like he's just set on it (which is silly for a town player, because nobody has perfect information except mafia) and not particularly willing to backtrack on anything. Despite this, he's actively looking for information and stuff.

Valenius is null, in case I didn't already make that particularly clear from my earlier reads. I don't think he has done a whole lot yet and looking through his filter leads me to believe that he's either genuinely AWOL or he's trying to lay low. Time will tell.

Robik is town. Another player thrusting themselves into the spotlight, giving reads and generally doing shit that generally gets done in games. Is confirmed best player.

Roland is null. I want to wait more before giving a read on him, because I already know I'm the kind of guy that likes to OMGUS and I feel like if I gave one now that it would be influenced by my confrontational mindset. (Though his read on Robik is actually kinda funny in the sense that, yeah, mafia probably wouldn't do that.)

I want to elaborate more, but some people haven't even gotten to a two page filter yet. More information, specifically from LT, would be great right now.


If Eden and LT are never mafia together and Eden's case on LT is good, then why don't you come to the conclusion that Eden is town? What am I missing?
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 20:27 GMT
#297
On March 27 2014 04:46 OnceKing wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2014 04:42 Eden1892 wrote:
On March 27 2014 03:21 OnceKing wrote:
I need LT to respond to Eden's five points, then. I don't and won't presume to speak for him and my estimation that he made an honest mistake might be biased from LII. Valenius seems to have an idea, though. So Valenius, I'd like you to respond to Eden's points too, as well as give your thoughts on Cav/Eden!

Who is your partner and why is it Lord Tolkein?

You're my partner because you're Lord Tolkien!


This is a really weird interaction and I don't know what to make of it.

Eden says he thinks OK is town or at least leaning town for his lynch all lurkers thing. Now he's asking who his partner is. I'm sure I'm just missing something here, but I'd love an explanation.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 20:52 GMT
#300
Wait, you really read Valenius's post and thought he was scum for it? Maybe I'm a sucker for people calling me town, but that post made me warm inside. It's not so much the conclusions that he draws but there were 2 things that stood out.

1) I think that most people who have read the game so far have you (and kinda sorta Roland) as town. The fact that he's unwilling to put you on that list shows me that he's at least contemplating other scenarios -- I personally have started to get nervous regarding you. It's not enough for me to not call you town, but I am just nervous.

It was this from Cavalinho:
Eden is almost certainly mafia due to the way he pushes information and pounces an anything he perceives as weakness

It does kinda feel like you're jumping on everything that could be perceived as scummy. I think you've been kinda reluctant to call people town, and have sorta backed your way into it. It's easier as mafia to just call everyone mafia than to call everyone town. It honestly could just be your style of pressuring people and then coming up with a conclusion based on their answers, but yeah. IDK. You're almost certainly town. I'm probably just paranoid.

2) The whole tone of his post just reads townie to me. While I might not agree with all of his conclusions, it seems that he's trying to solve the game and he's trying to find reasons to think certain people are town and certain people are scummy and he's really easy to follow...his post flows well.
IAmRobik
Profile Joined January 2014
United States5878 Posts
March 26 2014 21:00 GMT
#303
What's confusing? I think he's town and i'm prolly just being paranoid that he could be mafia.
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