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On February 13 2014 17:41 suki wrote:
Ah. I stand corrected then. Still, there's a lot of pressure on me and it's been this sort of nagging constant the whole game.
Like, from the start people were like suki could be scum she's really good at it. I just don't see what I could have done differently that would have made people not see me as scummy.
Do you really not understand how your soft defending of JonnyLaw early in the game looks?
Another infamous "let's give him time" post:
On February 08 2014 06:29 suki wrote:Show nested quote +On February 08 2014 06:21 LoneMeow wrote:
If you look at the previous aborted game, he did have one liners but he also posted quite a lot of longer posts where he actively volunteered his thoughts and reads on players. That's what is missing in this game, along with the aggression and hostility towards players he thinks are scum. true but so far he's been in the thread twice I believe? Right at the beginning and then when he was drunk. Let's see how he fares when he comes back today.
Then a "me too" scum read on JonnyLaw:
On February 08 2014 13:31 suki wrote:
Right now my second lynch is Jonny.
I think the points brought up by Balla are quite valid. I found his lack of comment on Jay strange (even before I really started tunneling Jay). He promised a big post on Balla and has not delivered which is really fishy. Points in his favour are that his playstyle hasn't changed dramatically (still one liners, still mostly angry), and a good player once told me that he's never seen a scum player post in the thread when they're drunk.
I think that his activity the next time he comes into the thread is going to make or break my read on him.
If somehow Jay became off-limits for the lynch and I had to choose right now based on my general impressions, I'd vote for Jonny.
Then defending JonnyLaw again (see especially the italics I added):
On February 09 2014 00:11 suki wrote:
I just can't get over my read on Jay. He's scum to me through and through. Even before he started blowing up at me his attitude just didn't make sense and didn't fit with his town play. People give him the pass for 'making changes' but they never explain why these changes make it more likely that he's town.
If it's between Jonny and Jay, then I'll push Jay.
Jonny's case on Koshi based on the early gameis so bad. His continued use of the previous game to provide examples is stupid. However if I give him the benefit of the doubt and believe that he was working and he's short on time, then it's easier to accept that his cases are bad. At least he's pushing cases, giving reads freely, being upfront.
Contrast it with Jay's behavior. Yes, I am tunneling Jay. I'm just so damn sure of him. I don't buy his blue 'claim' at all (true-blue townie? what kind of stupid claim is that). How is it that Jay's been here so much more than Jonny and yet he's the one that has less scum-hunting activity?
Remember how we were like when Koshi came into this game and claimed he was going to be super active, that if he didn't hold up to it then he's an easy lynch? Jay came into this game with an over the top IM GONNA HUNT SCUM attitude and he HAS NOT DELIVERED. Fuck.
I am willing to give Jonny a second chance. His cases that he made are bad but that's no reason to fault him, at least he made cases, posted opinions and pushed the person he thought was scummy.
What is Jay doing? Jonny came in and had no problems making a shitty case on Koshi just now yet I ask Jay why he thinks Koshi is scum and he dodges hard and later says 'Koshi is null'. Jay can't even stick to his own guns.
Look at the votes in the thread. EVERYONE is on Jonny. Everyone. But there's so much hesitation with Jay.
Face it, Jonny's the easy (mis)lynch target and not because he's been playing scummy, but because he has a few tweaks to his game that are suspicious (such as not flaming people for excuses, not commenting on Jay), because he's been away and because his cases are horrible.
BUT he is OBJECTIVELY (yes Oats, Objectively) doing more pro-town things than Jay.
Arrghghghghgh.
You were defending your scum read!
I need to stop tunneling and look into other candidates, but for now:
##Vote: suki
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On February 13 2014 18:41 jaybrundage wrote:
Hei Lonemeow I like that last case alot. Speaks volumes about Suki's alignment. I find it kind of odd that she would choose to Night kill balla tho. I guess he did write that one case on her so I guess he showed that he could see her thru her if given the opportunity
IMHO Balla24 was the obvious shot, period.
If anyone was confirmed town from the lynch it was him. The fact is, he made a serious push at 5-4 votes that lead to the swap that got scum lynched.
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Enough about suki for now, let's talk about Hopeless1der. Anything about him that sticks out as especially indicative of his alignment?
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The most glaring problem with Hopeless1der is not actually the fact that he's not been vocal about either of the lynched scum but the way he made a huge case on suki and did not follow up at all. No push, no pressure.
And then there's excuses:
On February 13 2014 12:52 Hopeless1der wrote:
a large portion of it is that I "forgot" about my scumread on suki which is patently untrue. I grew incredibly apathetic due to coag's behavior and stopped playing for the most part. Aside from that, people calling me scum are playing the game. I look bad, I never commented on sprang and scarcely commented on Jonny. When calling me scum, it only means you are wrong, not bad. That's my fault, but meh we're doing so well I doubt it'll matter in the end.
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On February 13 2014 22:49 Hopeless1der wrote:
My primary excuse is that I haven't been up for lynch. I play so much worse when I dont feel like I'm going to die.
Suki makes the most sense, I'm sticking with that.
##Unvote
##Vote: Suki
Who else could you consider voting?
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On February 13 2014 23:13 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2014 23:01 LoneMeow wrote:On February 13 2014 22:49 Hopeless1der wrote:
My primary excuse is that I haven't been up for lynch. I play so much worse when I dont feel like I'm going to die.
Suki makes the most sense, I'm sticking with that.
##Unvote
##Vote: Suki Who else could you consider voting? You then coag I guess.
I take it that means you believe in jaybrundage's claim? Or is there something else that makes him look better?
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Hopeless1der, is there a particular reason why you'd lynch me and Coagulation before Aquanim? You mentioned his D1 play but said nothing about D2, how does that look to you?
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On February 14 2014 01:37 suki wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2014 01:19 LoneMeow wrote:
Hopeless1der, is there a particular reason why you'd lynch me and Coagulation before Aquanim? You mentioned his D1 play but said nothing about D2, how does that look to you? It seems like you are trying to push some suspicion towards Aqua, because why would Hopeless lynch Aqua when cop has confirmed that he's town? Is there something scummy that Aqua's done that makes you doubt the read?
An unconfirmed cop has an unconfirmed check. Does that make Aquanim confirmed in any way?
It should be obvious that Aquanim's D2 vote is somewhat suspicious and I'm trying to ensure we actually have discussed options this time around, no matter who ends up getting lynched in the end.
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On February 14 2014 01:46 suki wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2014 01:41 Hopeless1der wrote:
Suki how have you flipped so hard from jay is fakeclaimng to there are two confirmed townies. because no one's counterclaimed. You were the one who brought that up and it made sense.
Even if that makes it likely that he really is cop, it does not mean the check is validated in any way given that the setup can contain godfather.
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On February 14 2014 12:01 suki wrote:
After I flip, scum will have to mislynch twice in order to win the game.
The following people I think are town, and this is pretty much the order I have from most to least townie.
Oats - For leading the lynch against sidesprang. For his pressure play.
Jay - For claiming cop. I think he'll be shot N3. His Day 2 was decent. His response to my case today on who he chose for his cop checks was really townie too.
Aqua - Townie play. Townie interaction with sidesprang. Can't see Aqua being scum.
Hopeless - Big filter. Townie Day 3. If he starts playing a different tune once I'm dead I guess take a closer look at him.
Coag - Counter lynch to sidesprang. Although he hasn't done anything for town. Meta-wise though he seems more likely to be town as he is playing the game now...
LoneMeow I think is scummy. If LoneMeow isn't scum I really don't know cuz everyone else looks town to me. LoneMeow hasn't stuck his neck out, conveniently hasn't read anybody as town. Has thrown suspicion on everyone today except Oats. In day 1 and 2 he sort of lingered in the background and didn't have any effect on the lynches.
When I die lynch LoneMeow 100%. After he's gone I guess it's between Coag and Hopeless? But yeah I dunno.
Anyways I don't really have much else to say. If it isn't LoneMeow then I'm completely lost on who scum would be. Everyone else just looks town to me. Sorry I couldn't help town any more than this.
This is utterly unhelpful, if you want to call someone's behaviour town/scum you have to explain why it makes sense as that alignment.
Take this for example:
Hopeless - Big filter. Townie Day 3. If he starts playing a different tune once I'm dead I guess take a closer look at him.
What in his D3 play makes him townie? Why is it more likely to come from town tham scum?
(And I find it funny you say Hopeless1der has a big filter when he's tied for the second smallest filter in the game excluding the replacement.)
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jaybrundage, would you care to respond to this:
On February 13 2014 15:24 LoneMeow wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2014 08:08 jaybrundage wrote:
Well lets say I was blue hypothetically I would probably be Parity Cop hypothetically. And I would hypothetically check Koshi day 1 for a control check hypothetically. And then would check Aquanim hypothetically. To see if he was scum hypothetically.
But he would come up the SAME hypothetically. So he could be town hypothetically or godfather hypothetically. However if I'm the only blue hypothetically. Then they might not have any mafia role hypothetically.
So If I was blue hypothetically that would be what might of happened hypothetically. Not the blue claim I was expecting, but your choices of target do have some merit so meh, dunno. Would you please try addressing some of the issues about your play I highlighted here?
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On February 14 2014 15:53 suki wrote:
How about you answer my questions first and then I'll answer yours.
I assume you mean these:
On February 14 2014 02:31 suki wrote:
LoneMeow who are your town reads right now?
The only one I can call town with good confidence is Oatsmaster. I can't see his defense of Coagulation and push of sideprang being a bus, it was so strong.
On February 14 2014 02:37 suki wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2014 01:42 LoneMeow wrote:On February 14 2014 01:37 suki wrote:On February 14 2014 01:19 LoneMeow wrote:
Hopeless1der, is there a particular reason why you'd lynch me and Coagulation before Aquanim? You mentioned his D1 play but said nothing about D2, how does that look to you? It seems like you are trying to push some suspicion towards Aqua, because why would Hopeless lynch Aqua when cop has confirmed that he's town? Is there something scummy that Aqua's done that makes you doubt the read? An unconfirmed cop has an unconfirmed check. Does that make Aquanim confirmed in any way? It should be obvious that Aquanim's D2 vote is somewhat suspicious and I'm trying to ensure we actually have discussed options this time around, no matter who ends up getting lynched in the end. Ok so can you explain why you think Aqua's Day 2 is suspicious?
From defending sidesprang into voting him after the hammer vote has dropped - how does that not look suspicious? Also note that Aquanim defended sidesprang when his vote was on someone he said he wasn't sure was scum - that's mighty suspicious, defending scum that is the counterwagon to someone you are not very certain is scum.
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On February 14 2014 16:19 suki wrote:
How sure are you that I'm scum LoneMeow?
Say maybe 50%.
See, the problem for me is that I know your only scum read is wrong and it's causing real issues trying to figure out whether you're just mistaken tunneled town or scum trying to desperately get out of the situation.
This definitely does not help:
On February 14 2014 12:01 suki wrote:
Anyways I don't really have much else to say. If it isn't LoneMeow then I'm completely lost on who scum would be. Everyone else just looks town to me. Sorry I couldn't help town any more than this.
See how easy it would be for you to refute any of the town reads you threw out after my mislynch when you've said something like that? So basically it makes the said reads pretty much worthless.
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Actually, now that I went back and checked the timing of things Aquanim looks very town for the D1 push on JonnyLaw, far more than I originally thought.
When he made this big push to get JonnyLaw lynched the votes, if I'm not mistaken, were like this:
Jaybrundage ( 3 ) : Balla24, Koshi, suki, Hopeless1der, Oatsmaster, Alakaslam
JonnyLaw ( 3 ) : suki, Koshi, Aquanim, Balla24
Alakaslam ( 0 ) : jaybrundage
Sidesprang ( 1 ) : Oatsmaster
suki ( 1 ) : Oatsmaster, Balla24, Jaybrundage
Koshi ( 1 ) : Jaybrundage, JonnyLaw
Balla24 ( 0 ) : Jaybrundage, suki
Aquanim ( 0 ) : Balla24
There's always a slight chance it was a bus given how JonnyLaw was playing and how much suspicion he was getting, but I'd say that he looks town enough for now.
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On February 14 2014 16:41 Oatsmaster wrote:
Only 50%? You seem a lot more sure than that.
The only thing that matters is how sure I am about her compared to others.
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Meh, I guess it would have been too easy if suki was the last scum.
My next lynch candidate would be Hopeless1der. Largely for the fact that it seems he doesn't really care who's getting lynched.
This is his D1 reasoning for voting JonnyLaw:
On February 09 2014 01:12 Hopeless1der wrote:
i'm not convinced that's a blue claim, but i'm fine with lynching jonny in the meantime.
D2 he makes a large case on suki, has some followup and then just jumps on Coagulation, ignoring suki completely - including the fact that suki is also voting Coagulation.
D3 is just a "me too" vote:
On February 13 2014 22:49 Hopeless1der wrote:
My primary excuse is that I haven't been up for lynch. I play so much worse when I dont feel like I'm going to die.
Suki makes the most sense, I'm sticking with that.
##Unvote
##Vote: Suki
The overall theme seems to be a lack of commitment and care about who gets lynched - that's not a town mindset.
+ Show Spoiler +Interesting quote from LXIII post-game discussion (he was scum in that game): On December 08 2013 15:17 Hopeless1der wrote:
I can't believe I got away with being invisible for so long this game. My activity and general usefulness skyrocket when I'm legitimately up for lynch, I wanted to end up squeaking out an extra day just to turn up dead in the morning latched onto the towniest looking player.
Meanwhile, there is marv in the obsQT struggling to keep his information to himself and still no one said a thing about me. I'm a freaking ninja!
p.s. I cant access the spreadsheet. should I actually request permission or can it be made public?
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I'd totally lynch jaybrundage if not for the claim - and I fully expect him to come and explain the latest shenanigans about vig during the resolution period. The fact that he was not around at all for the D3 lynch is extremely suspicious.
Coagulation's declining contribution since D2 is also worrying, given his scum meta is to not contribute.
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Ok, now that we're in resolution period:
jaybrundage, get here and explain your claim and that vig stuff. Also say if you have been roleblocked at any point during the game.
See, part of the problem why I'm not really sold on your claim is that your early play looked like you either were a vig or at least trying to look like one, with stuff like:
On February 07 2014 08:34 jaybrundage wrote:
Yea I'm REALLLLLLY confident that both Balla and Koshi are scum. Bleh writing a bunch of stuff on balla would be alot of work tho. And we can sadly only lynch one today. Maybe a vig can shoot balla hmmmm?
On February 09 2014 09:01 jaybrundage wrote:
What do you guys think about the vig should we try to use it? Maybe try to reach a decision of if we should off someone night one?
On February 09 2014 09:37 jaybrundage wrote:
Hopeless who do you think is most likely to flip scum at this point. If we have a vig who do you think he should shoot?
On February 09 2014 12:31 jaybrundage wrote:Aquanim. I would like to talk mmmate. What do you think of Suki? Do you have any opinion on if we should try to get the vig to shoot someone via vote or something similar. What do you think of Coag wanting Vig to shoot him.
I was fully expecting you to claim vig, not parity cop after all that.
So: which are you? If you are vig, why have you not shot anyone?
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On February 16 2014 05:47 Coagulation wrote:
LM if i had to choose between lynching you and Hopeless1der I would lynch hopeless cause its pretty clear your town but not so much hopeless however I think aqua is a much better chance of flipping scum.
Why Aquanim, besides the D2 votes? See my reasoning why he looks town for his D1 push on JonnyLaw, how does that fit?
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On February 13 2014 02:52 Hopeless1der wrote:
LoneMeow
This is more associative with flipped scum than with LM’s play, but Jonny had LoneMeow as scum for shifty reasons and LM was eager to point them out and pressure Jonny concerning why he was able to ignore LM’s filter yet call him scum for lurking.
Also the VCA from the Day2 lynch is quite appealing for a town-LoneMeow.
On February 16 2014 11:43 Hopeless1der wrote:
##Vote: LoneMeow
Would you at least care to make a case for why your read on me is now completely the opposite of earlier?
Who would you lynch next after me, why?
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EPT
