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On January 26 2014 13:09 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways, is it bad that I'm kind of scared of Prome being scum now? At least right now I see WoS more townie than him to be honest.
Hmmm, I'll have to reread him.
It'd be funny if the scum team DOES end up being Foo+Prome and we bitched at VE and WoS for no reason lol.
It worries me that my reasoning for including you austin as almost-confirmed-town are wrong because sandroba could have said in scum QT 'HAY GUISE LETS PLAY FOR THE LONG GAME.'
I have to force myself to drop that line of thinking but it's always there. For now I'm confident of Foolishness but if he flips town I'm pretty damn sure we're fucked because it may mean that some sort of scenario like that is occurring. (Or Foolishness was right, and kita/Toad scumteam is also possible.)
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Oh and that's another thing I think I should mention.
If I am wrong about Foolishness (and of course it's possible), AND he is right about the 'confirmed list,' then it means that form my perspective we have already won this game, because the only remaining possible scummers are kita and toad.
This is a pretty farfetched thing for me to try to accept, and because I will apparently never be able to convince Foolishness of my towniness, he will never consider the though of a kita/toad scumteam and will not perform that 'flawless analysis' we need to convince everyone else and win.
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Alright sorry for spam, giving posting a break for a while unless anyone has anything short and sweet for me. Will get to kita read, I promise.
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Hmm, right now I'm convincing myself that Foo will indeed flip scum.
There are other little tells that I pick up that tell me "Hmm, I can really convince myself he's scum based on this". Mainly his Holy/Toad stuff.
His Holy/Toad reads are stuff that are "obviously" out of place. You've noticed it in that "case" of him I've made for sure. It's obviously out of place in a way that can convince me of that above (him being scum).
And on the other hand....
Wave, imagine Foo is scum. In this case, I'm sure you do pick up a certain association, between him and Toad right?
If Foo flips scum, what would this association tell you of Toad?
By association, I mean it from Foo's end mostly. I.e how Foo acts regarding Holy and Toad.
I have a certain theory about it, but want to know what you think first.
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On January 26 2014 13:31 gonzaw wrote:
Hmm, right now I'm convincing myself that Foo will indeed flip scum.
There are other little tells that I pick up that tell me "Hmm, I can really convince myself he's scum based on this". Mainly his Holy/Toad stuff.
His Holy/Toad reads are stuff that are "obviously" out of place. You've noticed it in that "case" of him I've made for sure. It's obviously out of place in a way that can convince me of that above (him being scum).
And on the other hand....
Wave, imagine Foo is scum. In this case, I'm sure you do pick up a certain association, between him and Toad right?
If Foo flips scum, what would this association tell you of Toad?
By association, I mean it from Foo's end mostly. I.e how Foo acts regarding Holy and Toad.
I have a certain theory about it, but want to know what you think first.
I mean...he acts really weird about them both---the basically unjustified townread on Toad now and the stuff in your case regarding Holy, but I'm not sure what that says about Toad's alignment tbh. I've typed out three different things now and deleted them all because they don't make any sense.
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Well, I think, that it's entirely possible a scum Foo used it to his advantage on a town Holy/Toad.
Holy started his play here basically defending Foo and going against me. Who is to say, a scum Foo didn't see that and say "Hmm, Holy would make a good scapegoat", and tried to frame him in an associative way?
I mean, everybody has done that at some point: See a helpless townie, and act all wishy washy about him, or buddy up to him, or defend him in "bad" ways, etc, so then other townies pick up that association and lynch him (even before you at times!).
I get the feeling, Foo's actions regarding Holy, and now Toad at the end of D2 and the start of this N2, are too "obvious". Perhaps in this sense. I mean, I picked up on them, you picked up on them. Foo knows he'll die at some point. He was the leading lynch on 2 days in a row for christ's sake. Doesn't it make sense for Foo and the scum team to frame a townie like that once scum Foo finally gets lynched?
Either way, maybe I'm looking too much into it. Maybe, maybe that "obvious" association is true. Maybe scum Foo is indeed buddies with scum Toad, and Foo is just bad at hiding it.
But actually, this is besides my point. I'm not bothering figuring out Toad's alignment with this...but Foo's.
This "obvious" association to me, feels very natural if Foo is scum with scum Toad, or if Foo is scum framing town Toad. But does it look natural if Foo is town?
Doesn't to me.
I think Foo's actions regarding Toad, whether legit (they are scumbuddies) or faked (trying to frame town Toad), speak volumes against Foo IMO.
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On January 26 2014 13:28 WaveofShadow wrote:
Oh and that's another thing I think I should mention.
If I am wrong about Foolishness (and of course it's possible), AND he is right about the 'confirmed list,' then it means that form my perspective we have already won this game, because the only remaining possible scummers are kita and toad.
This is a pretty farfetched thing for me to try to accept, and because I will apparently never be able to convince Foolishness of my towniness, he will never consider the though of a kita/toad scumteam and will not perform that 'flawless analysis' we need to convince everyone else and win.
I'll repeat what I said on N1:
On January 24 2014 05:57 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways, so here's my proposal guys:
gonzaw
marv
Hapa
austin
Prome
Foolishness
These guys are untouchable for now. They only become touchable if we misslynch someone. If we keep lynching scum, then they keep being untouchable. If we do misslynch someone, it is proof we were wrong, thus we reconsider those guys (Foo in particular). But until then, talking shit about them and stuff will only clutter up the thread when we have other suspicious dudes to focus on.
Do people agree (bar VE)?
Can simplify things a lot. We could discuss leaving Foo in it or out of it if you want, but at least the other 5 do go.
We should follow the bold.
We misslynched right now. We only have 1 more mislynch to spare. We shouldn't really have dangerous assumptions that could hinder our winning chances. Nobody is untouchable right now, at least not just because (they can be untouchable by their own merits, like leading a scum lynch, being sexy pro-town muthafucka's, etc).
Let's tread lightly with the "confirmed list" stuff
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On January 26 2014 14:03 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 13:28 WaveofShadow wrote:
Oh and that's another thing I think I should mention.
If I am wrong about Foolishness (and of course it's possible), AND he is right about the 'confirmed list,' then it means that form my perspective we have already won this game, because the only remaining possible scummers are kita and toad.
This is a pretty farfetched thing for me to try to accept, and because I will apparently never be able to convince Foolishness of my towniness, he will never consider the though of a kita/toad scumteam and will not perform that 'flawless analysis' we need to convince everyone else and win. I'll repeat what I said on N1: Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 05:57 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways, so here's my proposal guys:
gonzaw
marv
Hapa
austin
Prome
Foolishness
These guys are untouchable for now. They only become touchable if we misslynch someone. If we keep lynching scum, then they keep being untouchable. If we do misslynch someone, it is proof we were wrong, thus we reconsider those guys (Foo in particular). But until then, talking shit about them and stuff will only clutter up the thread when we have other suspicious dudes to focus on.
Do people agree (bar VE)?
Can simplify things a lot. We could discuss leaving Foo in it or out of it if you want, but at least the other 5 do go. We should follow the bold. We misslynched right now. We only have 1 more mislynch to spare. We shouldn't really have dangerous assumptions that could hinder our winning chances. Nobody is untouchable right now, at least not just because (they can be untouchable by their own merits, like leading a scum lynch, being sexy pro-town muthafucka's, etc).Let's tread lightly with the "confirmed list" stuff
I've been saying that from the beginning, though. I hate 'confirmed' town as an idea before flips; I have seen way too many people get burned way too many times.
Obviously we know who continues to push the idea. The bolded is the most important section---if you can consider someone town, continue to do so but don't do it only because of D1 vote analysis.
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I thought it was a pretty good idea to start D2. It would narrow down the possible suspects, so we could focus on specific people and not have ramblings on 1000 different people at once, which would lead to a very chaotic D2. It would also work as long as we killed scum as well...because if we did, then by god it means we are doing something right doesn't it?
But if we mislynch or we arrive at N2/D3, etc, then we should drop it and play seriously, since it's not a "yeah we are obviously going to win this" situation anymore.
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This is the stuff about Foo and Toad at the end of D2 that I meant (the last one is on this N2 though):
On January 26 2014 07:40 Foolishness wrote:
...
For the remaining three players I could potentially see any of them being together at this point. I haven't read Toad's filter closely, and everytime I read HolyFlare's I go back and forth on whether I think he's mafia or town. At the moment I think Toad is least likely mafia out of the three. I still think it could make sense for you (Toad) to be with either VE or WoS or sandroba but I don't have anything hard to give you in regards to that.
On January 26 2014 07:50 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 07:46 Toadesstern wrote:On January 26 2014 07:40 Foolishness wrote:
[... snipped out for thread's sake...] only talking about the part that answered me. Than what about this: On January 25 2014 10:15 Foolishness wrote:On January 25 2014 10:09 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 25 2014 10:06 Foolishness wrote:On January 25 2014 09:57 WaveofShadow wrote:I think it is even more apparent through the entirety of day 1 as a whole. Where is my mafia team to save me? Are they just afk (we all know mafia games on TL are never that easy)? The only one trying to deflect votes off of me was me. Sure, kitaman and austin both said I was town, but there was never a hard push. It seemed like their attitude was, "yeah Foolishness is town I'm sure, but I got nothing better to propose". Kitaman's push on Promethelax was mediocre at best (in terms of aggressiveness, not content). I was 100% on my own for all of day 1. I see absolutely zero reason why this section of your post is relevant, and I've said it multiple times before. I don't ever see mafia members actively trying to push lynches off their scumbuddies. However if you actually do think this way, maybe it explains why you as scum were trying to save sandroba? As I said above, if you and kitaman want to run down the conspiracy theory hole even after there's a boatload of evidence proving my innocence and very little evidence proving yours (and VE's, and Toad's, and Kitaman's) then that's cool when you lose the game for the town. I win games. Silly question then in regards to your last post: Which two of the four of us are scum? And 'it doesn't matter' doesn't cut it because there is no way in hell the rest of the players in this game will simply follow your instructions and lynch those 4 without considering all options. That's not a silly question. I believe it is you [note: you=WoS] and Toad. Though I go back and forth on whether it's Toad or VE. Kitaman went after sandroba a lot on day 1. He called him out early, voted on him (twice) and pushed his case. I don't see him doing that to his own scumbuddy (moreso since sandroba was inactive so his case just kept looking better over time). I might add that I've been voting WoS ever since the start of D2, you seem to be pretty certain on WoS, you see me voting WoS as well, you're torn between VE and me and you think I'm the better candidate for the 2nd mafia seat than VE becaaaaause? I didn't even realized that happened my bad lol I gave my thoughts at the time. I already said I could be very wrong on VE. I'm confident about my read on WoS. If you have the same read and gave good opinions then I got no reason to think you're mafia. As I said I've not closely read your filter because I've been focusing on WoS and the day 1 votes. I did say that I think you can prove your innocence to us by the end of night 2, and from what I've seen I don't really doubt that at this point.
On January 26 2014 07:56 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 07:52 gonzaw wrote:Hmmm.... Well.......maybe we should keep the lynch on VE. Toad, I don't get it: On January 26 2014 07:39 Toadesstern wrote:On January 26 2014 07:32 gonzaw wrote:
Toad, what do you think of Foo's last posts?
Me and kita are kind of on the fence with this lynch, and have enough votes to swing the lynch to either VE or Foolishness. You think VE is town then? Will you try to convince us to lynch Foo, or will you do nothing until deadline waiting for your townread to get lynched? I don't have a townread on VE, if I had one I'd be kicking and screaming. I didn't come to a conclusion on him because the same happened to me like 4 days ago and I happened to be town in that game which is giving me shivers. I'm kind of busy right now and only f5'in inbetween. I've told you guys to get on Foo, I told you multiple times so far and it's been ignored. I don't have the time to make a case right now. I DO think Foolishness is the way better lynch though and I DO think that reading VE tomorrow will be easier than today. That should already be enough if you seem to have the same problems I have with the recent stuff he has posted. Again, there's cookies over here so please come over VE basically gave up a long time ago, and I doubt he'll "pick up" and start putting effort. Why would you think reading VE will get any easier? What if he keeps doing nothing and saying he's apathetic and doing the stuff he did this D2? Will you say "Let's keep him around till D4, SURELY it'll be easier to read him by then"? I will actually vouch for Toad in that I see where he's coming from about VE being easier to read later on. But you're point gonzaw makes a lot of sense as well. Two different ways of approaching it. I'm moving my vote now because I actually have no idea what the vote count is. The case on WoS still stands but Gonzaw's point about VE makes his lynch better for the town as a whole. ##Unvote: WoS
##Vote: VisceraEyes
On January 26 2014 07:58 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 07:53 kitaman27 wrote:
Didn't you want to lynch Holy before sandroba? Has Toad's play changed your mind on him or is it just that WoS's and VE's play is just much worse since then? Yes I did. I thought Holy was mafia based on his posts and his replacement posts. After the lynch I went back and reread them and thought "okay I can see him as town saying these things even if they are suspect". As I said earlier I go back and forth on his posts. Toad seems like he's trying to figure things out, and even if I don't agree with his arguments he's doing things for the town and VE is not. I can't argue against VE here. I'm very confident about my read on WoS at this point, it will be reevaluated for the following day because he should be lynched asap.
On January 26 2014 10:01 Foolishness wrote:
...
I'm not really sure why he went against that and started calling me mafia. Well, I see his reasons for doing so but to go against his earlier reasoning does seem a bit out of place considering it was at a time when the thread was giving me a bunch of heat. Toad, do you not believe in any of those posts you wrote before?
The bolded are obvious bits of Foo buddying up to Toad or giving him somewhat unfounded town reads.
The italics are Foo straight up saying he hasn't read Toad yet (although that last post was made after the lynch, maybe he did read Toad's filter there).
The juxtaposition of those strike me as odd, and that's what I mentioned about Foo's "association" with Toad. He explicitly says he didn't read his filter, yet makes those kind of "buddy up" defenses? Like the "I said you would prove your innocence by N2, but I don't doubt that at this point", and the "He seems to be trying to figure things out" and the like.
...yet he hasn't read his filter yet.
If he hasn't how is he making this kind of read on Toad? Feels off, feels out of place.
Like I said before, feels so in an "associative" kind of way, which I think is telling of a scum Foo perhaps.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
VE 
Feeling hungover+vile from last night, so not gonna play/think much until later, after i forced myself to exercise and clear my system out. 1pm and still in dressing gown + bed :p
Quick thoughts I picked up while catching up on the thread for now:
On January 26 2014 07:40 Foolishness wrote:
In terms of actual connections between I haven't done a thorough analysis to say "these two players could be a likely pair". One thing I did take notice of was that in day 1 Kitaman was pushing hard for sandroba (and voted for sandroba twice during the day). I think this says something because why would Kitaman be drawing so much attention to his obviously semi-inactive mafia teammate (especially on day 1, and especially on a player who is known for being inactive as mafia)? Because of this I don't find Kitaman likely to be mafia with sandroba.
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Actually this might be redundant because Fool now apparently changed his mind, but sandroba had zero votes (after i moved off anyway) before gonzaw managed to make a really good push on him. Why are you giving this so much credit?
On January 26 2014 07:52 gonzaw wrote:Hmmm.... Well.......maybe we should keep the lynch on VE. Toad, I don't get it: Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 07:39 Toadesstern wrote:On January 26 2014 07:32 gonzaw wrote:
Toad, what do you think of Foo's last posts?
Me and kita are kind of on the fence with this lynch, and have enough votes to swing the lynch to either VE or Foolishness. You think VE is town then? Will you try to convince us to lynch Foo, or will you do nothing until deadline waiting for your townread to get lynched? I don't have a townread on VE, if I had one I'd be kicking and screaming. I didn't come to a conclusion on him because the same happened to me like 4 days ago and I happened to be town in that game which is giving me shivers. I'm kind of busy right now and only f5'in inbetween. I've told you guys to get on Foo, I told you multiple times so far and it's been ignored. I don't have the time to make a case right now. I DO think Foolishness is the way better lynch though and I DO think that reading VE tomorrow will be easier than today. That should already be enough if you seem to have the same problems I have with the recent stuff he has posted. Again, there's cookies over here so please come over VE basically gave up a long time ago, and I doubt he'll "pick up" and start putting effort. Why would you think reading VE will get any easier? What if he keeps doing nothing and saying he's apathetic and doing the stuff he did this D2? Will you say "Let's keep him around till D4, SURELY it'll be easier to read him by then"?
I'm risking going into tunnelvision here, but whatever. I agree with gonzaw's questions essentially. I find this "keep VE around for one more day" really out of place, because there is nothing to suggest, at all, that VE's attitude would change. It's so... murky. That's the 2nd thing that feels really wrong in Toad's filter (the other not reading holy's posts..)
On January 26 2014 08:15 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 08:09 gonzaw wrote:
Foo, right now these are your "scum suspects": Toad/kita/WOS.
Choose the scum between them based on this lynch. Now can I answer this? Can I answer this? I got a pie-chart: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/7sroMdW.png) I gave in to being a dick...
And then this gave me pause. Doesn't really matter how right or wrong it is necessarily (@wave), more that it's at least an interesting and possibly townie way of thinking. I dunno. The issue is that VE = town makes Toad = mafia all the more likely.
On January 26 2014 13:12 Foolishness wrote:
I'm leaving this thread for the next 24 hours or so. I can't think straight because all my posts are being misconstrued and misused. I also can't make my trademark analysis because you guys keep distracting me and are all focused on the wrong things. I don't know how trustworthy my reads are because I have to dedicate 90% of my time to defending myself, instead of typical games where people ignore me and I spend 90% of the time constructing a flawless analysis. I don't have the confidence to push my reads right now because I feel they would just be spammed away, misconstrued or flat out ignored.
I hate this Fool, I really do. Not because of the "i'm not going to play now", I get that. The fact that you post this just as Wave is coming into the thread and starting to interact, post, and talk about things. Your main, massive scumread returns and you afk? Really?
On January 26 2014 13:59 gonzaw wrote:
I get the feeling, Foo's actions regarding Holy, and now Toad at the end of D2 and the start of this N2, are too "obvious". Perhaps in this sense. I mean, I picked up on them, you picked up on them. Foo knows he'll die at some point. He was the leading lynch on 2 days in a row for christ's sake. Doesn't it make sense for Foo and the scum team to frame a townie like that once scum Foo finally gets lynched?
Either way, maybe I'm looking too much into it. Maybe, maybe that "obvious" association is true. Maybe scum Foo is indeed buddies with scum Toad, and Foo is just bad at hiding it.
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Fool's interactions with the sand lynch were also "too obvious". Do you think Fool connected himself to his two scumbuddies like that? I said before that Fool has no problem blatantly pushing a mafia agenda, but damn.
One last thing that I found myself thinking while I was reading the thread and Fool's posts:
Is Foolish mafia or is he seeing something in Wave that I'm not seeing anymore and I'm terrible and he's godlike town or something? Either I'm completely missing something with Wave here or something wonky is going on with this push.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
I'm the first post for 8 hours? Gosh. Hello from the UK.
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Hi marvy.
I'm around in limited capacity.
What you're seeing in foolishness's push is most likely some version of what I dscribed as my tell earlier.
Town Foolishness couldn't be so terrible as not to see anything I do as towny, I don't get how he could wilfully ignore anything positive I have done.
I dunno though at this point talking about him is getting redundant unless you have anyrhing new/interesting to add.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
I may or may not later, lol, as 'limited capacity' describes me quite aptly right now also. The timing of him leaving the thread as you reappeared is just so off. Dunno if I noticed especially because I was reading a large chunk of the thread at once, but it was like
a) fool talking about how wave is almost certainly mafia
b) wave comes in and starts posting about stuff
c) fool immediately decides to leave the thread
It's something I'll probably check out later but it feels like, in general, there's been a lack of engagement with you on his behalf.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
And damn son, do you have a long filter, esp. after you weren't around so much D1.
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Marv how likely is it in a game like this that scum went for ##bigplays right from the get-go?
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
Pretty unlikely, I'd say.
Partly because of the players in the game (sensible), partly because most of the time mafia ##bigplays are usually borne out of the situation at hand, not pre-planned/done randomly
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On January 26 2014 22:41 marvellosity wrote:
I may or may not later, lol, as 'limited capacity' describes me quite aptly right now also. The timing of him leaving the thread as you reappeared is just so off. Dunno if I noticed especially because I was reading a large chunk of the thread at once, but it was like
a) fool talking about how wave is almost certainly mafia
b) wave comes in and starts posting about stuff
c) fool immediately decides to leave the thread
It's something I'll probably check out later but it feels like, in general, there's been a lack of engagement with you on his behalf.
Which I have noticed, specifically called him on and tried to see if we could do something about.
As for filter length, as people have said quantity != quality but I'd like to think there's at least a little bit in there. It pisses me off that anyone can say I'm not trying. As either alignment.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
Yeah, I'll give you "a little bit" of content buddy.
That's as far as I'll stretch 
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
Put it this way: if you're mafia, I'm extremely impressed with your effort and commitment this cycle.
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EPT
