• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 04:01
CET 09:01
KST 17:01
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL21] Ro24 Preview Pt1: New Chaos0Team Liquid Map Contest #22 - Presented by Monster Energy7ByuL: The Forgotten Master of ZvT30Behind the Blue - Team Liquid History Book19Clem wins HomeStory Cup 289
Community News
Weekly Cups (March 16-22): herO doubles, Cure surprises2Blizzard Classic Cup @ BlizzCon 2026 - $100k prize pool42Weekly Cups (March 9-15): herO, Clem, ByuN win42026 KungFu Cup Announcement6BGE Stara Zagora 2026 cancelled12
StarCraft 2
General
Weekly Cups (March 16-22): herO doubles, Cure surprises Weekly Cups (August 25-31): Clem's Last Straw? How to Choose the Right KYC Partner for Your Proje Team Liquid Map Contest #22 - Presented by Monster Energy What mix of new & old maps do you want in the next ladder pool? (SC2)
Tourneys
World University TeamLeague (500$+) | Signups Open RSL Season 4 announced for March-April Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament WardiTV Team League Season 10 KSL Week 87
Strategy
Custom Maps
Publishing has been re-enabled! [Feb 24th 2026]
External Content
Why Is Assignment Helper So Powerful for Students The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 518 Radiation Zone Mutation # 517 Distant Threat
Brood War
General
ASL21 General Discussion Soulkey's decision to leave C9 BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ JaeDong's form before ASL [ASL21] Ro24 Preview Pt1: New Chaos
Tourneys
[ASL21] Ro24 Group B [ASL21] Ro24 Group A ASL Season 21 LIVESTREAM with English Commentary [Megathread] Daily Proleagues
Strategy
Fighting Spirit mining rates Simple Questions, Simple Answers Soma's 9 hatch build from ASL Game 2
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread General RTS Discussion Thread Nintendo Switch Thread Path of Exile Dawn of War IV
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion The Story of Wings Gaming
League of Legends
G2 just beat GenG in First stand
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Five o'clock TL Mafia Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Are Online Numerology Courses Actually Worth It? CaratFlair Diamond Engagement Rings – Elegant Fore European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine
Fan Clubs
The IdrA Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
[Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread Cricket [SPORT] Formula 1 Discussion Tokyo Olympics 2021 Thread General nutrition recommendations
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Laptop capable of using Photoshop Lightroom?
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Funny Nicknames
LUCKY_NOOB
Money Laundering In Video Ga…
TrAiDoS
Iranian anarchists: organize…
XenOsky
FS++
Kraekkling
Shocked by a laser…
Spydermine0240
Unintentional protectionism…
Uldridge
ASL S21 English Commentary…
namkraft
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 2459 users

Automatic Balance Tester - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 Next All
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 13 2013 16:00 GMT
#41
I'd think that modkills are somewhat evenly spread between factions?

Won't have time to update tester for a little while anyways..
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
December 13 2013 17:38 GMT
#42
Ideally there shouldn't be modkills.

Maybe more ideally, when someone is "modkilled" for inactivity, what actually happens is that the game is re-balanced (somehow) as if that player didn't join the game in the first place. Eg if there are 12 townies and 3 scum, and a townie is "modkilled" for inactivity, then you rebalance the game as if there were only 11 townies and 3 scum all along. The game doesn't "lose" balance (i.e if a townie got modkilled, town doens't lose advantage, if scum was modkilled, scum doesn't lose advantage).
How? Beats me, that's why it's idealized
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 15 2013 11:47 GMT
#43
On December 14 2013 02:38 gonzaw wrote:
Ideally there shouldn't be modkills.

Maybe more ideally, when someone is "modkilled" for inactivity, what actually happens is that the game is re-balanced (somehow) as if that player didn't join the game in the first place. Eg if there are 12 townies and 3 scum, and a townie is "modkilled" for inactivity, then you rebalance the game as if there were only 11 townies and 3 scum all along. The game doesn't "lose" balance (i.e if a townie got modkilled, town doens't lose advantage, if scum was modkilled, scum doesn't lose advantage).
How? Beats me, that's why it's idealized


Haha Well, I guess it could always be attempted to create such a setup! It's pretty difficult to prepare for all the different modkill scenarios though.

I still think modkills are somewhat equally harmful for all factions (though maybe hosts are a bit more lenient for scum before modkilling).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 17 2013 11:24 GMT
#44
I'll be a bit busy for the next few days, but probably I'll be making version #4 during this week. The changes aren't yet finalized, but this feedback thread is the main source.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 28 2013 17:37 GMT
#45
I made a (smaller) update to the balance tester today. Here are the changes:

- All balance values have been changed to decimal values
- The base balance value for Mafia is now -4.25 (previously -4)
- The balance value for Veteran is now +1.5 (previously +2)
- The balance value for Serial Killer is now -3.5 (previously -3)

- Mafia Mason is now valued at the base balance value for Mafia (-4.25) unless at least one town Mason exists

- Victory odds calculations have been adjusted
- Specifically both Serial Killer and Survivor have had their victory odds increased moderately

I had also planned to include scroll panes and a new style to view the role list (amount X rolename instead of all rolenames in a row), but ran into some technical difficulties, and then decided to delay those changes. They aren't *that* crucial in the big picture, after all. I'll probably include them later on to improve the UI a bit.

Here's a link to download the version #4 of the program:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zb7oxzsz177h4f7/Mafia_Balance_Tester.jar

All feedback is appreciated!
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
December 30 2013 05:06 GMT
#46
Cool, I was looking toward making something like this myself. I just got time this break so I'm going to try to make something independently (partly cause I hate java) and I'll see what I get.

If you wanna collab on something let me know. I'm thinking of including past games and other types of data as well.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 30 2013 14:29 GMT
#47
On December 30 2013 14:06 wherebugsgo wrote:
Cool, I was looking toward making something like this myself. I just got time this break so I'm going to try to make something independently (partly cause I hate java) and I'll see what I get.

If you wanna collab on something let me know. I'm thinking of including past games and other types of data as well.


That sounds interesting. The approved setups here on TL Mafia have already gone through a manual balancing process, so they should be a good starting point for automatic balancing. Are you thinking of basing the whole balancing process on past games data or just showing them as some kind of a reference for the user? kitaman's TL Mafia Database would probably be helpful for both purposes.

Which language are you planning to use? How similar is it to my current balance tester? I could share the code I have currently on this one if you want. Actually the logic of this program is pretty simple, and the hardest part has been to get the GUI working properly (it still isn't working completely properly ), but it might still be helpful for you to glance at the logic portion. It might also be helpful for me if you find something to improve.

Depending on how similar our aims are, it might make sense to maintain two separate programs. If they're very similar, though, it might not make much sense. Currently my main goal is just to make the program easy to use and fairly reliable. I thought of using iGrok's balancing method for a bit, but ultimately I didn't know how to automate it. The +/- method is very simple, but its accuracy suffers in larger / more complicated setups. The best option would probably be to calculate every possible scenario each day/night for the whole game, but that gets very complicated very fast. How were you thinking of calculating the balance?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-30 15:02:04
December 30 2013 15:01 GMT
#48
On December 30 2013 23:29 Xatalos wrote:
... Actually the logic of this program is pretty simple, and the hardest part has been to get the GUI working properly...

That always seems to be the way it works out.
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-31 22:41:58
December 31 2013 22:37 GMT
#49
On December 30 2013 23:29 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 30 2013 14:06 wherebugsgo wrote:
Cool, I was looking toward making something like this myself. I just got time this break so I'm going to try to make something independently (partly cause I hate java) and I'll see what I get.

If you wanna collab on something let me know. I'm thinking of including past games and other types of data as well.


That sounds interesting. The approved setups here on TL Mafia have already gone through a manual balancing process, so they should be a good starting point for automatic balancing. Are you thinking of basing the whole balancing process on past games data or just showing them as some kind of a reference for the user? kitaman's TL Mafia Database would probably be helpful for both purposes.

Which language are you planning to use? How similar is it to my current balance tester? I could share the code I have currently on this one if you want. Actually the logic of this program is pretty simple, and the hardest part has been to get the GUI working properly (it still isn't working completely properly ), but it might still be helpful for you to glance at the logic portion. It might also be helpful for me if you find something to improve.

Depending on how similar our aims are, it might make sense to maintain two separate programs. If they're very similar, though, it might not make much sense. Currently my main goal is just to make the program easy to use and fairly reliable. I thought of using iGrok's balancing method for a bit, but ultimately I didn't know how to automate it. The +/- method is very simple, but its accuracy suffers in larger / more complicated setups. The best option would probably be to calculate every possible scenario each day/night for the whole game, but that gets very complicated very fast. How were you thinking of calculating the balance?


Probably at least partially based on past setups, though the sample size is incredibly small.

More likely what I'll be doing is encouraging the people on the balance team to run the setup randomizer I create lots of times. I'll probably put in some sort of rudimentary learning algorithm that will assign a balance rating, i.e. + for town, - for mafia similar to what you have. Based on what the tester inputs as his opinion the program will change its future predictions for the setups it creates/sees.

It'd hopefully become more effective as more games are added. I'll likely also include multiple options for balance calculation. I'm thinking the main ones would be:

1. Testers' inputted scores
2. Role balance based on game winrate when included
3. Balance based upon +/- scores given to different roles (manually, not through past games)

So there'd probably be a bunch of checkboxes or input boxes for each of the calculations, and the program would just keep track of a variety of different values to calculate scores to maintain versatility.

In other words, if I wanted to see what the program thought without including past games, there'd be an option to turn off #2. If I wanted to manually tune the score based on what I thought certain roles are worth, I could change scores on the fly for #3.

e: unfortunately I don't have a proper coding platform atm, I fucking hate Windows. So this'll probably be on the backburner for a bit.

also I'll probably write it in either Python or C++.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 31 2013 23:30 GMT
#50
On January 01 2014 07:37 wherebugsgo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 30 2013 23:29 Xatalos wrote:
On December 30 2013 14:06 wherebugsgo wrote:
Cool, I was looking toward making something like this myself. I just got time this break so I'm going to try to make something independently (partly cause I hate java) and I'll see what I get.

If you wanna collab on something let me know. I'm thinking of including past games and other types of data as well.


That sounds interesting. The approved setups here on TL Mafia have already gone through a manual balancing process, so they should be a good starting point for automatic balancing. Are you thinking of basing the whole balancing process on past games data or just showing them as some kind of a reference for the user? kitaman's TL Mafia Database would probably be helpful for both purposes.

Which language are you planning to use? How similar is it to my current balance tester? I could share the code I have currently on this one if you want. Actually the logic of this program is pretty simple, and the hardest part has been to get the GUI working properly (it still isn't working completely properly ), but it might still be helpful for you to glance at the logic portion. It might also be helpful for me if you find something to improve.

Depending on how similar our aims are, it might make sense to maintain two separate programs. If they're very similar, though, it might not make much sense. Currently my main goal is just to make the program easy to use and fairly reliable. I thought of using iGrok's balancing method for a bit, but ultimately I didn't know how to automate it. The +/- method is very simple, but its accuracy suffers in larger / more complicated setups. The best option would probably be to calculate every possible scenario each day/night for the whole game, but that gets very complicated very fast. How were you thinking of calculating the balance?


Probably at least partially based on past setups, though the sample size is incredibly small.

More likely what I'll be doing is encouraging the people on the balance team to run the setup randomizer I create lots of times. I'll probably put in some sort of rudimentary learning algorithm that will assign a balance rating, i.e. + for town, - for mafia similar to what you have. Based on what the tester inputs as his opinion the program will change its future predictions for the setups it creates/sees.

It'd hopefully become more effective as more games are added. I'll likely also include multiple options for balance calculation. I'm thinking the main ones would be:

1. Testers' inputted scores
2. Role balance based on game winrate when included
3. Balance based upon +/- scores given to different roles (manually, not through past games)

So there'd probably be a bunch of checkboxes or input boxes for each of the calculations, and the program would just keep track of a variety of different values to calculate scores to maintain versatility.

In other words, if I wanted to see what the program thought without including past games, there'd be an option to turn off #2. If I wanted to manually tune the score based on what I thought certain roles are worth, I could change scores on the fly for #3.

e: unfortunately I don't have a proper coding platform atm, I fucking hate Windows. So this'll probably be on the backburner for a bit.

also I'll probably write it in either Python or C++.


Okay, that #3 option seems pretty similar to how my program works currently... But options #1 and #2 are quite different. Although I've naturally tried to have some level of "tester input" through this feedback thread And there have been several very good suggestions as well. I think it could be pretty useful for you to read through this thread from a developer perspective.

I'll PM you the source logic of my program so that you can see if there's something useful for your aims. You said that you dislike Java, but even so, it shouldn't be that hard to understand how it works (it's pretty simple overall).

Be sure to also check out the actual program here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zb7oxzsz177h4f7/Mafia_Balance_Tester.jar I'd definitely value feedback from a developer (as well as Mafia player) perspective.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
January 01 2014 01:29 GMT
#51
I think this would probably work better as web app. You could use a free cloud hosting system perhaps?

Also, how about making this open source? Msybe open a github proyect so people can cooperate
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
January 01 2014 08:10 GMT
#52
On January 01 2014 10:29 gonzaw wrote:
I think this would probably work better as web app. You could use a free cloud hosting system perhaps?

Also, how about making this open source? Msybe open a github proyect so people can cooperate


Yeah, I think a web app would be more convenient. It's just that I have basically no experience with web apps so far... It's definitely a possibility for the future, though.

I've also been thinking of making the program open source. It's not like I'm planning to make money off of it or to maintain it forever. However, I think there's still some work to be done before I'm ready to actually "launch" the program
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
January 02 2014 17:11 GMT
#53
I made another (relatively small) update to the balance tester:

- Added scroll bars to the main balance tester window (now it’s possible to use the program with a very small computer screen or with a very large 40+ player setup on a relatively small computer screen)

- Changed the balance value of Veteran back to +2 (from +1.5) (on second thoughts, it felt like Veteran was undervalued at +1.5)

- Increased the victory odds of SK and Survivor a bit more (I think the previous victory odds were still a bit too weak for both roles)

Here's the download link:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zb7oxzsz177h4f7/Mafia_Balance_Tester.jar

It seems like the balance values are in a decent spot right now, but it would be helpful to have new perspectives on the matter (it's hard to both determine the values and to test them objectively).

Otherwise there's some small user interface stuff that could use improving, but the program is mostly "ready" at this point. Maybe I'll implement some bigger changes if I get good ideas, though. WBG talked about some interesting stuff, but I'm not quite sure if I want to make this program much larger / more complicated... The original goal was to make it easy to use and to have static values, after all. We'll see.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
January 09 2014 16:53 GMT
#54
Any feedback on the latest version?

Active development of the program is kind of paused at the moment, but I've implemented almost all of the suggestions so far, so it's a good time to add your own ideas now for the next version
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
January 10 2014 01:54 GMT
#55
On January 01 2014 17:10 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 01 2014 10:29 gonzaw wrote:
I think this would probably work better as web app. You could use a free cloud hosting system perhaps?

Also, how about making this open source? Msybe open a github proyect so people can cooperate


Yeah, I think a web app would be more convenient. It's just that I have basically no experience with web apps so far... It's definitely a possibility for the future, though.


Well....ok

With a web app, you'd have less "control" over the GUI (like you'd do with a desktop app), but you have more powerful frameworks to choose from to help you. E.g databases, hosting services, bla bla bla. Well, if you choose specific frameworks (which you have to research), and you know lots of javascript, or html5, etc, you can have a pretty bitching GUI. However that's harder than just creating an app with Swing. Although I think JavaFX may be better perhaps; I never really liked Swing.

Also you already have it hosted, nobody needs to install JRE or download the app or anything. Because it's hosted in a single place, you can have users, and statistics, and shit like that

I've also been thinking of making the program open source. It's not like I'm planning to make money off of it or to maintain it forever. However, I think there's still some work to be done before I'm ready to actually "launch" the program


Yeah, it's kind of a "tough" thing to do. If you are the project leader, you'll have to do lots of stuff, and basically learn a whole new industry setting and procedures, etc.
For instance here's a guide: http://producingoss.com/en/index.html
It does take a while to learn, and then get enough experience and practice and collaboration and shit (not that I ever did any open source project though lol).

If you do go open source though, you can gather the power from anybody ever that's relatively interested in tools to play mafia, instead of just doing it yourself. That has the potential of creating a super awesome tool, and hell maybe even advancing the "game theory" behind mafia (regarding balancing in this specific case for instance).


I'd volunteer and stuff.....but I'm lazy (you can notice I haven't done anything on that other project I wanted to do and made a thread about like one year ago lol).


Also, as for suggestions, I would suggest:
-Include a database of the games it's being used on. Whenever the user chooses to balance a game, you can ask for the name of the game and that kind of stuff, and save it for later (for example, to later check how that previous game was balanced once it's over).

-Migrate kita's database of games into this new database of yours. That way we can see how every single game from TL is balanced....and well that's nice. It's not hard work as long as you create a compatible infrastructure and create a script to migrate kita's database
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
January 10 2014 18:54 GMT
#56
On January 10 2014 10:54 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 01 2014 17:10 Xatalos wrote:
On January 01 2014 10:29 gonzaw wrote:
I think this would probably work better as web app. You could use a free cloud hosting system perhaps?

Also, how about making this open source? Msybe open a github proyect so people can cooperate


Yeah, I think a web app would be more convenient. It's just that I have basically no experience with web apps so far... It's definitely a possibility for the future, though.


Well....ok

With a web app, you'd have less "control" over the GUI (like you'd do with a desktop app), but you have more powerful frameworks to choose from to help you. E.g databases, hosting services, bla bla bla. Well, if you choose specific frameworks (which you have to research), and you know lots of javascript, or html5, etc, you can have a pretty bitching GUI. However that's harder than just creating an app with Swing. Although I think JavaFX may be better perhaps; I never really liked Swing.

Also you already have it hosted, nobody needs to install JRE or download the app or anything. Because it's hosted in a single place, you can have users, and statistics, and shit like that

Show nested quote +
I've also been thinking of making the program open source. It's not like I'm planning to make money off of it or to maintain it forever. However, I think there's still some work to be done before I'm ready to actually "launch" the program


Yeah, it's kind of a "tough" thing to do. If you are the project leader, you'll have to do lots of stuff, and basically learn a whole new industry setting and procedures, etc.
For instance here's a guide: http://producingoss.com/en/index.html
It does take a while to learn, and then get enough experience and practice and collaboration and shit (not that I ever did any open source project though lol).

If you do go open source though, you can gather the power from anybody ever that's relatively interested in tools to play mafia, instead of just doing it yourself. That has the potential of creating a super awesome tool, and hell maybe even advancing the "game theory" behind mafia (regarding balancing in this specific case for instance).


I'd volunteer and stuff.....but I'm lazy (you can notice I haven't done anything on that other project I wanted to do and made a thread about like one year ago lol).


Also, as for suggestions, I would suggest:
-Include a database of the games it's being used on. Whenever the user chooses to balance a game, you can ask for the name of the game and that kind of stuff, and save it for later (for example, to later check how that previous game was balanced once it's over).

-Migrate kita's database of games into this new database of yours. That way we can see how every single game from TL is balanced....and well that's nice. It's not hard work as long as you create a compatible infrastructure and create a script to migrate kita's database


That sounds kind of like WBG's plan for a balance tester (using past games for comparison and balancing). You can check earlier in this thread. I'm not sure when he'll begin working on that system, but I think it might be better if he focused on that and I focused on this simpler, static approach. (Also I don't know anything about databases yet, but I'll be studying mostly database stuff in the following months, so maybe I'll include some of that stuff too We'll see!)

I haven't yet given any real thought to open source, but thanks for the link. I'll save it for future reference. It also depends on if there are actually other people willing to work on the program... The logic in it is relatively simple, and most of the work so far has resulted from creating the GUI. I'll have to consider the option more.

Regarding the web option: yeah, what you say is true. If I had had experience with web development, I would have almost certainly started the project as a web site. I'll see what I can do once I improve my skills

A lot of uncertain answers in this post, sorry, but what you talked about was very large-scale stuff. It's certainly useful to consider such matters, but mostly I'm looking for more concrete and smaller suggestions at the moment. Thanks in any case!
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
January 10 2014 19:38 GMT
#57
I know this is kinda outside the realm of what you have currently, but something that I find really helpful is knowing the cycle the game would end in worst case scenario for each faction.

For example, 2 Goons/7 VT would end D3 at the earliest for a mafia win or D2 at the earliest for a town win.
2 Goons/6 VT 1 Vig would end D2 at the earliest for a mafia win or N1 at the earliest for a town win.

If you're looking for a feature to add at any point, it would probably be fairly simple to come up with a formula for this for mini games.
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
January 10 2014 19:56 GMT
#58
On January 11 2014 04:38 kitaman27 wrote:
I know this is kinda outside the realm of what you have currently, but something that I find really helpful is knowing the cycle the game would end in worst case scenario for each faction.

For example, 2 Goons/7 VT would end D3 at the earliest for a mafia win or D2 at the earliest for a town win.
2 Goons/6 VT 1 Vig would end D2 at the earliest for a mafia win or N1 at the earliest for a town win.

If you're looking for a feature to add at any point, it would probably be fairly simple to come up with a formula for this for mini games.


Actually yeah, that's a good idea, and not that hard to calculate either. Basically the worst case for town is if every Mafia NK kills a townie and every lynch is a mislynch. The worst case for Mafia is if every lynch hits Mafia and no NK kills a townie (Doctor/Veteran etc.). On the other hand, roles like Serial Killer complicate matters a bit. I'm not sure if there's even much use in calculating an ideal scenario for neutral roles? Maybe just town/Mafia?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
January 10 2014 20:17 GMT
#59
Ya I probably wouldn't bother with third party scenarios.
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
January 10 2014 21:05 GMT
#60
I think....we could just use good ol' probabilities and statistics, based on all possible scenarios.

For example, you can balance a game, knowing that in the worst case scenario for town, town loses on D3 after 2 misslynches and 2 NK going through. Then you have the worst case scenario for scum, where town lynches scum 3 days in a row, the medic saves shots 2 nights in a row, cop gets checks 2 nights in a row, etc.
But what about the stuff in between? You can't balance JUST using worst case scenarios, because those will NEVER happen, they are just a rough guide on what "could" happen.
I think it's more important to balance according to what WILL indeed happen.

Maybe the best way to model that, is just count all possible scenarios, assign a probability to them, or maybe some other factor (like a Balance Number perhaps?), and then determine the overall balance of the game, knowing the probability of each of these scenarios.
Most likely there would be heuristics to determine these probabilities/factors, or some other theory that can help.

For instance, yes, the worst case scenario for scum is if the Town Vig shoots scum on N1, the medic saves 2 townies on N1 and N2, and town lynches scum on D1, D2 and D3. Good, but that will surely NOT happen at all. What will most likely happen, is town misslynches on D1, town vig shoots a townie on N1, town lynches scum on D2, medic saves townie on N2, bla bla bla. THAT is the "normal" flow of the game you should be balancing. If town has it so easy, that in that scenario they win almost all the time, then the game is balanced wrong, even if there exists a "worst case scenario" for town that seems it can fuck them up pretty badly. The point is that it's more probable that the "normal" flow of the game happens than that worst case scenario.

Different roles have different balancing factors as well, that's not just a +1 or -1. A town vig can shoot a townie or a scum, he has the power to greatly favor scum or town. That has a lot of variance, so when a vig is inserted in a game, it should introduce variance on the chances each faction can win, and thus balance.
Idem when you have a cop and a framer or GF for instance. It introduces variance, since the cop may check the GF. That greatly changes the game, since the GF could be considered almost confirmed town. Or maybe town is good and catch him nevertheless. That's even more variance (how town can react to it).

I think something like that might work better: introduce the average chance each faction has to win the game, and the variance of it, and balance (somehow) according to that).

Seems to me there can be better ways to handle balance, to be as accurate as possible.
Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 1h 59m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
Nina 183
ProTech116
StarCraft: Brood War
GuemChi 3476
firebathero 1976
HiyA 266
Bisu 147
ToSsGirL 83
Noble 22
NotJumperer 21
Bale 19
ZergMaN 11
Nal_rA 10
[ Show more ]
Terrorterran 9
Dota 2
monkeys_forever754
febbydoto27
League of Legends
JimRising 501
Counter-Strike
Stewie2K1061
m0e_tv477
Other Games
ceh9387
Happy201
Liquid`RaSZi173
Trikslyr21
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick855
BasetradeTV119
Dota 2
PGL Dota 2 - Main Stream108
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 14 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Berry_CruncH191
• LUISG 3
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Rush1316
• HappyZerGling138
Upcoming Events
Sparkling Tuna Cup
1h 59m
Afreeca Starleague
1h 59m
Soulkey vs Ample
JyJ vs sSak
Replay Cast
1d
Afreeca Starleague
1d 1h
hero vs YSC
Larva vs Shine
Kung Fu Cup
1d 2h
Replay Cast
1d 15h
KCM Race Survival
2 days
The PondCast
2 days
WardiTV Team League
2 days
Replay Cast
2 days
[ Show More ]
WardiTV Team League
3 days
RSL Revival
4 days
Cure vs Zoun
herO vs Rogue
WardiTV Team League
4 days
Platinum Heroes Events
4 days
BSL
4 days
RSL Revival
5 days
ByuN vs Maru
MaxPax vs TriGGeR
WardiTV Team League
5 days
BSL
5 days
Replay Cast
6 days
Afreeca Starleague
6 days
Light vs Calm
Royal vs Mind
Wardi Open
6 days
Monday Night Weeklies
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-03-23
WardiTV Winter 2026
Underdog Cup #3

Ongoing

KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 1
BSL Season 22
CSL Elite League 2026
CSL Season 20: Qualifier 1
ASL Season 21
Acropolis #4 - TS6
RSL Revival: Season 4
Nations Cup 2026
NationLESS Cup
BLAST Open Spring 2026
ESL Pro League S23 Finals
ESL Pro League S23 Stage 1&2
PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026
IEM Kraków 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter Qual

Upcoming

2026 Changsha Offline CUP
CSL Season 20: Qualifier 2
CSL 2026 SPRING (S20)
Acropolis #4
IPSL Spring 2026
BSL 22 Non-Korean Championship
CSLAN 4
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
HSC XXIX
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
IEM Cologne Major 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
PGL Astana 2026
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
CCT Season 3 Global Finals
IEM Rio 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.