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On November 25 2013 23:01 Aquanim wrote:
@Sciberbia: If one of the top group is scum who's your guess? Even if you can only narrow it down to two,
Tough question. Can I have 3?
Mocsta - if it weren't for you and thrawn telling me he is def town I probably would have put him in his own group in the middle
Onegu - towniness confined to one part of his filter; possible he just put on a great act for 12-24 hours
Bereft - don't know how to explain this.. just feel like there aren't any super strong town-tells
OK now I really really have to do some work. closing thread
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This is fucking awesome. The game is pretty much solved if you think about it.
First thing's first. Cora's gotta be telling the truth. If he's scum and lying then he's been planning this since N1 as well as playing a a very townie D2.and making a ridiculous fake-claim just to win in style. I just really don't see it.
So yay I'm pretty much confirmed town. Now I don't have to take crap from anyone 
I really really doubt that scum saw him make his claim before the deadline. At first I thought, what if they have framer and just framed Onegu, but this doesn't really make sense. Scum would have no way to know Cora doesn't change his check. Leaving a claimed cop alive and unroleblocked is senseless. And also very important to note, they didn't even shoot me (his green check).
So Bereft and Mocsta are pretty much confirmed town I think, seeing as they were in the thread and saw the claim. Very nice play Cora 
That means all 3 scum are in here {Onegu, Slam, Chezinu, HolyFlare}
Does anyone see a problem with the above logic? If not we are in fantastic shape.
Onegu with a red check on him is probably scum. The only way he could be town is if Cora is lying (very unlikely), scum saw the claim and framed him (very unlikely; see above), or if he is a miller (odds are not high).
Given the fact that we have a cop, and there were 2 shots last night, and really just everything points to HF scum.
Slam is looking towny to me and Chez is just ???. Not worried about them right now as we have several days to figure them out.
In any case, of 4 possible players that can be scum, we're certainly not going to lynch the 3 without red checks on them. So all aboard the Onegu train.
##Vote: Onegu
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On November 26 2013 18:16 Holyflare wrote:
Ok, maybe it's 9, this playerlist is so wrong x_x
There are 8 players left.
@HF
+ Show Spoiler +On November 26 2013 17:19 Holyflare wrote:
You people are silly. Guy claims cop AND who he is checking way before night is over and you expect him to live?? Then you say I'm scum?
On November 26 2013 17:19 Holyflare wrote:
Tl:dr
Cora's claim is fake, misleading town into a most probably towny lynch on onegu.
How are you so certain the claim is not legit? I'm pretty sure you are scum but I'll humor you. Let's say you are town. Now why can't the scumteam be Onegu + Slam + Chezinu, all of which were not around at the deadline and presumably not see Cora claim.
Also do I have this right?. You're saying you were in the thread but before the deadline but didn't post anything? What if you had died? You didn't want anyone to know you had saved Cora?
Yea I'm pretty sure Onegu and HF are both scum. Everything's pointing that way.
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@HF
On November 26 2013 19:40 Holyflare wrote:
The scum team CAN be those 3, but I got a towny feel from Onegu. He gets called out on "making things up" but why would he spend what looks like hours on cases to only be disproved because he misread timestamps? That is the most obvious thing anyone can point out ever. He isn't that bad as scum simply put.
That is at best a null tell on Onegu. I'm willing to believe he genuinely got confused by the timestamps, but that doesn't make him town.
The fact of the matter is I had a town read on Cora before he claimed and I'm not going to change it based on his claim. If anything his claim just makes him look even townier.
On November 26 2013 19:40 Holyflare wrote:
That's the thing you aren't seeing when you say other scenarios. If onegu is scum, why would cora be still alive when he most definitely said who he was checking today?
The scummiest people in the game happened to not be in the thread when he claimed. It's completely believable that they simply did not see his claim, especially given that they didn't shoot me either (his green check).
On November 26 2013 19:40 Holyflare wrote:
Onegu has been playing and I've been lurking so what right do I have to stay in the game?
Don't know what this has to do with anything.
On November 26 2013 19:40 Holyflare wrote:
They had 2kp, they could double stack cora or kill me and cora. If they double stacked cora not only would they get rid of a cop checking scum but they could make me look totally bad too because I "didn't heal the cop".
Mocsta is now implying I wasn't around for the cop shenanigans but if I wasn't then why would scum not shoot cora because he most definitely wouldn't have been my save target otherwise.
This is all irrelevant since I really don't think scum saw his claim before choosing their shots. If they did they probably WOULD have double-stacked him or at least shot me (his green check) instead of thrawn or aquanim.
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On November 26 2013 20:07 Onegu wrote:
@Scib if I flip town what are your thoughts on cora? Anyway my case is comeing up.
Also everyone except chezniu has weighed in on me ant it is currently 6-1-1 votes on me, on cora, note voted.
Can we please vote 24 hour day?
##VOTE cDgCorazon
##VOTE 24 HOUR DAY
Well if you flipped miller that would be tragic and I'd still think Cora is cop.
If you flip town then Cora is obviously somewhat suspect. Probably one of him/Mocsta/Bereft would have to be scum. Either cop claim is fake or Mocsta/Bereft framed you. Most likely because of math would be a fake cop claim. So yea if you flip town then I guess Cora is probably scum. But I doubt it.
This whole martyring thing is pretty dumb and just makes me feel more sure about you being scum tbh. Do you really think you are going to win with town by dying but convincing someone to shoot Cora? It doesn't make any sense. If we DO have a vig then he has been roleblocked twice in a row. It wouldn't take a genius scumteam to roleblock the same person again.
And either
a) HF is town and gets shot, ending the game, or more likely
b) HF is scum, so we have no medic, and scum have their pick of game-ending NK
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On November 27 2013 02:07 Bereft wrote:
Cora has been a pretty unwavering town read for me since n1/d2. his explanation to moc of why he never gave scib a strong town read in his posting was extremely solid. while I don't know if I agree with him claiming 40 min before the deadline was over, his rationalization of it was consistent with a townie mindset in my opinion.
compare this to HF whose explanations and rationalizations for his actions are completely inconsistent with an actual blue role. I cannot believe for a moment he would be around at the deadline and change his save target to Cora without even questioning Cora's motivations, considering the suspicions he has of him. combined with the way he acted N1, it is basically impossible that even the most confused and foolish of doctors would do the things he's doing.
I think onegu is a good lynch but HF is a safer one. when we are at mylo I don't see any harm in being risk averse, and I hope you guys will agree.
also this last bit might be a bit of a stretch, but considering how he implies cora should've checked him he's probably the GF. if he flips GF we know that the scum check on onegu is basically unquestionable.
##Unvote
##Vote: Holyflare
Yea I'm down with this. I really can't see Holyflare being town at all. How could he not AT THE VERY LEAST tell the thread who he is saving in case he is shot. Either he is playing a mindboggingly bad doctor or he is scum. The more likely explanation is scum.
Honestly besides the red check Onegu looks reasonably townie, especially with 28 pages of notes. That's pretty try-hard for town, but super ridiculously try-hard for scum. I guess he could be miller.
Funny game isn't it?
I'm more willing to believe that a given player is miller than that a claimed doctor is doctor.
Let's lynch HF today guys.
##Unvote
##Vote: Holyflare
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This is really becoming a shitshow. Let's just lynch scum shall we (HF)?
Cora isn't scum Moc. We all believed his cop claim. There's no way in a million years he'd retract it if he were scum. You're overthinking things.
Let's take stock here.
sciberbia - town
Corazon - VT
Bereft - town
Mocsta - VT
Onegu - town/scum
Slam - town/scum
Chezinu - blue/scum
HF - scum
I'm pretty sure I'm not wrong about the top 4 players being town. Corazon > Bereft > Mocsta in order of confidence, but I'm willing to assume we are all town at least until the final 3.
Scum are quite likely to be 3 out of the bottom 4. I'm literally like 95% sure HF is scum. He's just completely shitting up the thread since the game started, and especially so today. Why would he even replace in as town if he intended playing like this? I'm not even reading his posts anymore.
@Cora, Bereft, Mocsta
Can we please all just hold hands and lynch HF today? We can worry about the others when we see the flip. But one step at a time.
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@Moc
What do you think about NL if Cora really insists on keeping his vote on Onegu? I dunno if it really makes a difference whether we lynch today or tomorrow.
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Hmm actually scum just use their Delay power if we NL. So we'd be in a strictly worse position tomorrow than we are in today.
yea nevermind
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Try writing him an apology note?
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Proper town play is irrelevant. Cora isn't trying to win.. he's just trying to piss us off or something idk
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On November 28 2013 09:52 Holyflare wrote:
Like, I get why you'd put a vote on me, my play hasn't been anything like my meta's for either alignment and I haven't contributed in the traditional way.
The whole thread is doing anti-town discussion whilst I generate good discussion! Blue state is best state. Blue forever.
lol so troll
We dont need cora just stay on HF. Scum would all have to out themselves to save him and we could just lynch them tmrw
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Onegu ill read your case later. On phone atm
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HF if you flip town And we lose to cora/bereft scumteam I will apologize profusely and admit I suck at this game. But i really doubt it.
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thanks gmarshal
happy thanksgiving all
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@Mocsta
How plausible do you think a Slam & Onegu scumteam is? I don't really see them shooting Chezinu. Unless it was just to WIFOM us into not lynching one of them. But that'd be a pretty ballsy play, no?
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We need to think about what scumteams would shoot Chezinu over me/Mocsta/Cora.
Scenario 1: Slam and Onegu
I find Slam + Onegu the most scummy individually, but I feel unsure about them being scum together. What was their plan? They shoot Chezinu and have Slam vote Onegu. Onegu gets lynched and what's the plan from there? Slam is the logical lynch for D5. It doesn't seem like a viable route to victory. I only see a few plausible explanations for them shooting Chezinu. Either they were overly paranoid of Chezinu busting out some sick blue claim and clinching the game, or they wanted to introduce a bunch of WIFOM to deter us from lynching the scummiest players.
Scenario 2: Either Onegu or Slam is scum, and one of the 'town circle' is scum
If this is the case, then most likely is that scum took his 'undercover analyst' schenanigans seriously and were worried that he would be able to nail both scum if left alive. It's still kinda silly though because even if he nailed both scum he probably wouldn't be able to avoid his own lynch due to the lack of any town cred. So maybe scum is just totally derp or found something in his Chezinuish riddles that was dangerous to them. It's hard to say.
Scenario 3: Both Onegu and Slam are town
Not wasting my time worrying about this. Fact of the matter is that it's super unlikely and if in fact they are both town I think the game is beyond lost.
Well this was actualy much less conclusive than I thought it would be, but I'll post it anyway to get some feedback. My gut tells me that Scenario 2 is more likely. Not only because of the night kill explanation but also due to prior probabilities (math). However if that's the case we're in huge trouble because we have to figure out WHICH of onegu and slam is scum, and we have to figure out WHICH of the 'town circle' is scum. So I think we need to keep discussion going on who could be scum besides Slam and Onegu and not just afk lynch them one after the other. I'll put my thoughts in a separate post.
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Mocsta - I have a really bad feeling about Mocsta being scum with either Slam or Onegu. Individually Slam and Onegu look scummier, but I just have a bad feeling that if we lose it's going to be because Mocsta is scum. Here are some reasons why: - Scumtells from D1, D2, that were touched on by myself, Bereft, Onegu. I haven't done a proper case on Mocsta myself as I've never actually wanted to lynch him (even today I don't). To be honest I was really hoping he'd be shot by now so I don't have to worry about him.
- He's been so active and pushy that as a town leader he'd be a lurky scum team's worst nightmare. The shots on thrawn and chezinu rather than Mocsta are very puzzling to me if he is town.
- He has established that he is prone to reversing reads over the course of a few hours. This means he is extremely dangerous in 4-person LYLO if he is scum because he can vote for anyone and get away with it.
Cora - If not Mocsta, I think Cora could be scum. After all, I've detailed how I found his D1 play somewhat scummy, and his play ever since his cop claim has been anti-town, to say the least. But I disagree with Onegu that his anti-town play means that he has to be scum. Townies can play anti-town too. I also have a hard time seeing why he would fake cop, and then retract it after convincing everyone he was cop. Unless he is very much a believer in style before victory. Meh. Overall, between Mocsta and Bereft in terms of scumminess. I really can't see myself lynching him ever.
Bereft - I strongly strongly think Bereft is town. If I'm wrong, he has done a hell of a job of fooling me by starting the HolyFlare lynch, claiming veteran, and keeping all his play and pushing of HolyFlare consistent. This on top of his D1 play (on which I was leaning town) make it too hard for me to seriously consider him as scum.
So the most pressing question is: should we lynch Onegu today? He has 3 votes if I'm not mistaken.
The sad thing is that unless we are going to lynch Cora instead I'm not sure we have much choice. There are 4 townies alive right now, and we need 4 votes to lynch. So if Cora is town, even assuming that we could get the other 3 townies on a scum, we wouldn't end up getting them lynched. If we NL, then scum just delays and we are in a strictly worse position tomorrow.
I'm 100% sure that I'd rather lynch Onegu than Cora, but I'm really not too confident that Onegu is a better lynch than Slam. Onegu has been trying really hard recently, and I dunno it just makes me feel uneasy. On the other hand, Rean's slot was fairly scummy and Alakaslam is hard to read/understand.
@Bereft
If it was all up to you, who would you rather lynch today between Slam and Onegu?
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+ Show Spoiler [Mocsta] +On December 01 2013 21:04 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2013 11:59 ObviousOne wrote:Basic Vote Count DAY 1 cDgCorazon (0): thrawn2112, Mocsta, sciberbia, Onegu, thrawn2112, sciberbia, HolyflareAquanim (2): thrawn2112. Mocsta, jampidampi, cDgCorazon, Rean, raynpelikoneetRean (0): Aquanim, JarJarDrinks, raynpelikoneet, Bereft, Mocsta, thrawn2112, raynpelikoneetOnegu (0): sciberbia, thrawn2112Bereft (0): raynpelikoneet, raynpelikoneetMocsta (0): raynpelikoneetraynpelikoneet (8): thrawn2112, Mocsta. Aquanim, JarJarDrinks, Bereft, raynpelikoneet, cDgCorazon, thrawn2112, thrawn2112, raynpelikoneet, thrawn2112, Holyflare, sciberbia, raynpelikoneetjampidampi (0): raynpelikoneetMocsta (1): Onegu, raynpelikoneetJarJarDrinks (0): raynpelikoneetNo-Lynch (1): cDgCorazon What stands out to me here is:(1) Rean/Slam: Useless vote; but was AFK the 2nd half of the cycle (2) Sciberbia: Helped to consolidate on Rayn; votes Corazon but is a dead vote as Rayn already had 6 votes. His votes are consistent with his cases though. (3) Holyflare: Dead vote on Corazon is odd. Need to check if Corazon chucked the shits at this vote (4) Onegu: Dead votes
Show nested quote +On November 25 2013 12:00 ObviousOne wrote:Basic Vote Count DAY 2 Bereft (0): thrawn2112Alakaslam (1): Aquanim, JarJarDrinks, MocstaChezinu (1): Mocsta, thrawn2112, Mocsta, thrawn2112Onegu (0): cDgCorazon, cDgCorazon, Aquanim, thrawn2112, cDgCorazon, ChezinuJarJarDrinks (6): cDgCorazon, thrawn2112, Mocsta, sciberbia, Aquanim, Mocsta, thrawn2112, Bereft, thrawn2112, Mocsta, Aquanim, cDgCorazon, Alakaslam, Mocsta sciberbia (0): Mocsta, ChezinuHolyflare (1): Bereft, Aquanim, ChezinuMocsta (2): Bereft, Onegu, HolyflareThrawn2112 (0): cDgCorazon What stands out to me here is:(1) Slam jumping onto JJD at a very opportune moment. (2) Onegu again throwing his vote away again (but I know I am town) (3) Holyflare throwing his vote away again.. this makes Corazon look slightly better due to the Day1 vote (4) Scibs with only 1 vote. Need to re-check his position on Onegu/Corazon (his Day 1 votes)
Show nested quote +On November 28 2013 11:51 ObviousOne wrote:Basic Vote Count DAY 3 Onegu (1): Mocsta, cDgCorazon, Bereft, Alakaslam, Mocsta, sciberbia, Holyflare, cDgCorazon Mocsta (0): Mocsta, Chezinu, cDgCorazon, cDgCorazon, HolyflarecDgCorazon (0): Onegu, Holyflare, cDgCorazon, HolyflareHolyflare (7): Bereft, sciberbia, Holyflare, Mocsta, Alakaslam, Chezinu, Onegu, Holyflare, Onegu sciberbia (0): cDgCorazonChezinu (0): cDgCorazonBereft (0): cDgCorazon, Holyflare, Onegu What stands out to me here is:(1) Corazon jumps around as much as Holyflare. From memory this was him chucking the shits. The key point is that he had a dead vote. (2) Onegu doesn't vote me for the first time. Instead follows Holy onto Bereft. His vote on Holy was a hammer in the sense it prevented HF from jumping ship. (3) Slam is in the middle of both Onegu and HF.
(1) Without a re-read, Scibs Day2 vote looks bad as he came on board before consolidation time. The firm vote on HF isn't worth any points as Bereft essentially nailed HF forcing consolidation. (2) Slams voting looks really bad. His play is quite far removed and he shows none of urge to improve his play like in other recent games. Reans filter also reads on the verge of scummy/useless town. (3) Corazon's dead vote on Onegu is a *BOLD* play Day3. Its possible to argue he was asleep - hence was never present to consolidate; but, jeez this looks really bad next cycle and considering HF went down early-ish into the cycle, Im tending to think this is too dumb a move to perform as scum. (4) Onegu and HF have some voting synergism. As I said before, I find it unlikely that scum would follow suit so closely, but its not impossible.
I think the best lynch for this cycle based on VCA is Slam (who I thought one of Chez/Slam was scum anyways).Then need to consider one of {Onegu, Sciberbia, Corazon}. To which, I am still probably leaning Onegu -- His sudden retrenchment of scum read on me seems unusual even given MYLO. Going to read HF now. ##Unvote
##Vote: Alakaslam
@Mocsta
Why do you keep drawing attention to 'dead votes' after every vote count? I don't understand your conclusions in this VCA. Seeing as there was really only one main wagon at the end of every day, you can call any vote not on the lynchee a dead vote. Is there anything necessarily scummy about that?
Furthermore, I really don't understand how you can think this
On December 01 2013 21:04 Mocsta wrote:
Scibs Day2 vote looks bad as he came on board before consolidation time.
You are essentially calling me scum because I was wrong. But how can you think that given the two immediately subsequent votes were Aquanim and yourself (who is also, assuming you are town, confirmed town to you).
+ Show Spoiler [start of JJD wagon] +On November 24 2013 17:28 sciberbia wrote:Lurking through the rayn lynch is by far the single scummiest thing anybody has done this entire game. I can't even imagine myself, as town, reading the 100 posts between pages 50 and 55 (the hour leading up to the lynch), and not posting my thoughts. That's crunch time. That's when the game is won or lost. It's when all the drama happens. The lynch was in question and everybody else online was vehemently discussing it, but JJD was just sitting there passing the time. On the other hand, I can easily see scum doing it. Rayn looked likely to be lynched so scum probably didn't feel much pressure. There's no reason for scum to be posting with a townie lynch coming down the pipeline. Furthermore here JJD expresses his opinion that Onegu is town and HF is scum, but says he will reread. + Show Spoiler +On November 22 2013 22:23 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Gonna reread Onegu but I haven't thought he was scum @ all this game so I doubt that's gonna change. Not crazy about Holyflare so gonna look close @ him.
He never posts the results of this reread. He hasn't been defending Onegu today even though he's looked like the most likely lynch candidate. He hasn't been pushing an HF lynch either. As thrawn says he's too content doing nothing. Combined with what aquanim and thrawn have posted, this feels really right to me. Better than every other lynch.
##Vote: JarJarDrinks On November 24 2013 17:40 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2013 17:28 sciberbia wrote:
Lurking through the rayn lynch is by far the single scummiest thing anybody has done this entire game. I can't even imagine myself, as town, reading the 100 posts between pages 50 and 55 (the hour leading up to the lynch), and not posting my thoughts. That's crunch time. That's when the game is won or lost. It's when all the drama happens. The lynch was in question and everybody else online was vehemently discussing it, but JJD was just sitting there passing the time.
On the other hand, I can easily see scum doing it. Rayn looked likely to be lynched so scum probably didn't feel much pressure. There's no reason for scum to be posting with a townie lynch coming down the pipeline.
...
Dunno why it didn't quite reach my brain until this repetition, but yeah this is damning. ##Vote: JarJarDrinks On November 24 2013 18:07 Mocsta wrote:
##vote: jarjardrinks*
Lets get a majority people !!!
So what exactly is it about my vote that is scummy?
+ Show Spoiler +On December 01 2013 21:04 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2013 12:00 ObviousOne wrote:Basic Vote Count DAY 2 Bereft (0): thrawn2112Alakaslam (1): Aquanim, JarJarDrinks, MocstaChezinu (1): Mocsta, thrawn2112, Mocsta, thrawn2112Onegu (0): cDgCorazon, cDgCorazon, Aquanim, thrawn2112, cDgCorazon, ChezinuJarJarDrinks (6): cDgCorazon, thrawn2112, Mocsta, sciberbia, Aquanim, Mocsta, thrawn2112, Bereft, thrawn2112, Mocsta, Aquanim, cDgCorazon, Alakaslam, Mocsta sciberbia (0): Mocsta, ChezinuHolyflare (1): Bereft, Aquanim, ChezinuMocsta (2): Bereft, Onegu, HolyflareThrawn2112 (0): cDgCorazon What stands out to me here is:(1) Slam jumping onto JJD at a very opportune moment.
And here Slam is scummy for being on the 'consolidating portion' of the JJD wagon, right next to yourself.
Basically I don't understand this VCA at all and would like you to expand on your thought process so I can see how genuine you're being. You point out pople for starting a wagon, consolodating on a wagon, and leaving their votes 'dead', but call all 3 types of voting behavior scummy. What would you consider to be townie voting behavior?
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EPT
