EPTHave you reread Onegu and HolyFlare? What are your conclusions?
Who do you want to lynch today?
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Have you reread Onegu and HolyFlare? What are your conclusions? Who do you want to lynch today? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Also even if you were posting from your phone, why didn't you at least give a brief opinion on what you thought about the lynch? Were you confident about a rayn lynch the entire time? If so why didn't you try to reassure everyone that it was the right move? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 25 2013 09:02 Aquanim wrote: And finally, Onegu is by his own admission not available for deadline. That combined with his play so far (I think his reads this game are frankly bad) convinces me of this: If Onegu is town and alive at LYLO or MYLO we are screwed. If he's town I want to get his mislynch out of the way now. If he's scum there's no harm in lynching him now. If we lynch someone other than Onegu and it's a mislynch our chances of victory become vanishingly small. I'm still willing to vote JJD because I think he's at least a decent chance of flipping scum, and I'll see if I can convince myself further about him. But for the moment: ##Unvote ##Vote: Onegu I don't agree with this logic for lynching Onegu. I think our priority has to be to not get into MYLO/LYLO at all. If we lynch Onegu and he flips town do you really think we still have a good chance at winning? Let's say scum get off two shots (not unlikely). It would then be 5-3. With 8 players left we'd need 5 votes. So basically we would need every townie to vote for a scum 3 days in a row. I don't care who's alive at LYLO I think we need to avoid this situation at all costs. I think Onegu's case on Mocsta looks Onegu look significantly better and Mocsta very slightly worse. Most of the points weren't alignment indicative, but Onegu clearly put a ton of time into it even when it's clear he may very well be lynched anyway. Also he has done a pretty good job convincing me that he may actually think Mocsta is scum, just by the way he takes so much issue with Mocsta's vote switches etc. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Ask yourself this question. Do you find it more believable that Onegu wants us to lynch Mocsta today, or that JJD wants us to lynch his top scum read (Chezinu?) today? Like I don't even know who his scumreads are right now. Look at his filter. Even HolyFlare has made it more clear who he wants to lynch. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 25 2013 09:21 Aquanim wrote: I've played in a game town won from 4-3 LYLO before, because we eliminated the townies who wouldn't be able to work together first. But I see your point. Do you disagree with me that Onegu's cherrypicked Mocsta's posts to unfairly emphasise that Mocsta's reads change? I agree that Onegu's case has plenty of confirmation bias (malicious or not). A good chunk of his analysis is logically unsound. He did misrepresent Mocsta's play (Bereft's as well) but idk I just find it plausible that he's town and either doesn't read correctly or is so consumed with confirmation bias that he can't think objectively. I don't know. His reactions just feel kinda genuine to me. I'm having a harder time believing JJD genuinely cares about these lynches than Onegu does. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 25 2013 09:32 thrawn2112 wrote: the onegu lynch.... "feels" harder to achieve? the JJD lynch seems too easy? is that what you're getting at because that's why I just changed votes @thrawn That's a really dumb reason. Now that the Onegu wagon has more votes (i think) by this logic you should re-vote JJD right? I really doubt there is more than maybe 1 active scum so don't base your reasoning based off of what other active players are pushing. The scumteam could be something as dumb as Alakaslam/Chezinu/JJD | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 24 2013 10:43 cDgCorazon wrote: TL;DR 1. He expects other players to play townier than him and is holding them to a higher standard 2. He contradicts himself- a lot. He's even contradicted himself in the same post. 3. He has tunneled Mocsta the whole game, and has only attacked four people, two of which he has only mentioned a few times (Rean and Bereft) 4. His posts and cases wreak to me of only trying to gain credit for scum hunting and not actually getting people lynched . I read your case Cora. Honestly the only point I thought was really solid was the one concerning his suspicious change of reads on rayn. Also some of the points have been invalidated. In response to your TL;DR 1) decent point but definitely not a damning scumtell. He may have just been pressed for time yesterday 2) I actually quite like his analysis of Mocsta's post restriction and how Mocsta handled it. I think it's some interesting analysis and is valid. 3) Why is only attacking 4 people a scumtell? Also I don't think tunneling one player the entire game is a scumtell as long as he is doing his damndest to get that player lynched, and still considers other possibilities (such as Bereft). Yesterday he wasn't but today he is. 4) Feels like he's trying to get Mocsta lynched today. Honestly I don't feel the case on Onegu was ever THAT strong and it has been partially invalidated by his contributions today. The majority of my problem with Onegu was that he didn't seem to care about the lynch yesterday. But he does seem to care today, and JJD seems to care even less both days than Onegu did yesterday. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Also, can anybody tell me who he wants to lynch today? Read his filter since D2 started. He is playing super super passively and not pushing anything at all. At least Onegu is making some proactive moves, reading filters, writing some cases. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I'm not going to shout you guys down if you want to stick with Onegu. Just read both of their filters since the start of D2 and consider which is more likely to be scum. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Please stop dicking around with Chezinu and tell us who you want us to lynch today. In case you haven't noticed everyone else is debating between JJD and Onegu. Care to weigh in? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
So your goal in the next 2 hours is to get Mocsta lynched at all costs? You won't settle for Onegu or JJD? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 25 2013 10:03 Aquanim wrote: I've had a thought and I'd like to hear your opinions on this subject. + Show Spoiler + Is it truly plausible that NONE of the initial five on Rayn (Mocsta, Thrawn, myself, Bereft and JJD) were scum? Not so much in the sense of "could a townie want to lynch Rayn" (because clearly we did) but more in the sense of "would scum be comfortable with none of them on the currently going wagon". I wanted to believe this was plausible because I don't like Rayn. But in hindsight I'm beginning to suspect it's not, and since I have a clear town read on everyone bar JJD on that list... @Aquanim I honestly wouldn't consider this a tell. This line of thinking just requires too many assumptions to make analysis on. Even naming any 3 players in this game town I could probably only do with 70% confidence. On November 25 2013 10:03 JarJarDrinks wrote: Yeah, my day 2 has not been good. I've already defended my weekend activity. But it's not just that. I don't like ANY of the cases I've seen. You say I've thrown suspicion on cora and and mocsta but haven't pushed the cases. I wasn't intending to throw suspicion, I was just trying to find scum because I don't have many scumreads right now. Which is why I want to vote for the Jampi or Rean slot. Preferably Rean. I don't have all that much on them but I already posted my case on Rean. We were all ready to vote him out yesterday when rayn blew up. Has anything changed? ##Vote: Alakaslam This thought process does not seem townie to me. He didn't like any of the cases in the thread, so therefore lynch a lurker? I dunno. I think the natural townie response when you don't like any of the current cases is to go find scum yourself. There is plenty to go on. Am I really asking too much for him to have one good scumread? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
To answer your questions, JJD by his own admission doesn't really have any scumreads and hasn't really been pushing anything. He wants us to lynch a lurker for lack of a lynch he actually likes. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I feel pretty optimistic about this - gonna feel amazing if he flips scum. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
sorry jjd. gg | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I don't really like the idea of formalizing a town circle. I think that our efforts are better spent scumhunting than discussing who we will let into our town circle and what we will do together. Also it seems kinda douchy lol But I do agree that we were stalemated D2 due to our needing the lurkers to post in order to make progress, combined with the lurkers not posting. It was frustrating. I'm in favor of applying more pressure with votes on D3. Not only does it focre lurkers to delurk but it also forces people to take a stand with their vote. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Looking at Onegu now. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
CB = confirmation biased | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 25 2013 14:22 Mocsta wrote: Q for you Scibs. My interpretation of that list post from Onegu. Do you think that is flawed logic. I have to admit, reading your cases on Onegu made me doubt my read -- which is concerning to me. + the whole act of sole tunnel on me is reminding me of how i played scum in personality 2 (where I tunneled Corazon into infinity and let the thread believe i was just that C.B.) @Mocsta Ditto what Aquanim said regarding your list post. I don't really understand your argument so perhaps you should rephrase it. Reading Onegu's D2 filter especially near the end, is enough to make me feel a gut town read on him. Posts like this just feel really genuine to me: + Show Spoiler + On November 25 2013 10:44 Onegu wrote: You all better vote me or mocsta. And when you lynch me actually read the fucking case on mocsta, I stayed up until 5am writeing that thing and all of you dont even read it. Also cora when he links shit for slam to read he didnt even link my mocsta case. And I didnt cherrypick anything, read the damn case, then read mocsta filter and tell me what relevant info I left out. Back to sleep ##lawlaiddown On November 25 2013 11:32 Onegu wrote: This lynch is going to end badly, its my own damn fault, If I could push my scum reads becaus I myself are scummy, or say things clear enough where people will actually read the case. I can really empathize with his emotion here. If he is scum that is some damn fine acting. Tunneling in and of itself isn't scummy. You have to look at how/why he is doing it. I think his infinity tunnel would be suspicious if (1) he kept repeating the same few points over and over even after you had addressed them (2) he didn't actually try to push your lynch, or (3) he used his tunnel as an excuse not to address anything else in the thread Point (3) may partially apply, but I don't think (1) and (2) do at all. In fact he keeps bringing up new points on you despite your lack of addressing his old ones. And he even got 3 votes on you yesterday. Also I'd appreciate it if you could actually respond to some of his points instead of just dismissing them. Some of them I thought were valid. Thinking particularly of his points about your jamp read on D1. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
probably 0-1 scum in here {Aquanim, thrawn, Bereft, Cora, Onegu, Mocsta} probably 2-3 scum in here {Slam, Chez, HF} I'm finding it really hard to believe 2 people in the upper bracket are scum. Meaning at least 2 of the replacements are probably scum and that's where we should be focusing our efforts tonight and tomorrow. I really liked this post by Mocsta on jampi + Show Spoiler + On November 25 2013 17:00 Mocsta wrote: So originally Jampi likes Aqua case on Rean (with a caveat) Then.. Firstly, I take "even after the case" to refer to Thrawns case on Aquanim (rather than Aquanim case on Rean) though I don't think this changes my concern. Secondly, lets look at what the points of Thrawn case was that Jampi liked. How is jampidampi PoV applicable if Aquanim made a case on Rean that jampi acknowledged potentially decent. Further look again at how Jampi explains why Aqua case could be meritable This is a strawman argument that is completely open to vague interpretation allowing jampi multiple outs. The main reason I find this scummy is due to how jampi adjusts his scum read based on thread sentiment. Later on Aquanim is off the noose and we get: Guess, he gets the answer to "held back" is not satisfied, but leaves his vote on aquanim the whole cycle even though it made the case of merit. jampi posted many times whilst Rayn went AWOL including giving him a calm/calculated town read: Yet his vote remained on aquanim this whole time contradicting his original stance. I take ire with this town read further; as even people like Onegu who have extensive experience with Rayn were not able to distill their reasons for Rayn being town as succinctly as that one sentence. Yes, I do think jampidampi is scum. Unfortunately, I have no confidence at all in my ability to read Chezinu. I've tried to play his game a couple of times now but he keeps shutting me out. Whether malicious or just because he thinks I'm scum I don't know. I hope the rest of you know what you're doing regarding him. Have a lot of sleep and work to do. May not be able to post for rest of night phase. If I'm shot please give my filter a thorough reread. | ||
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