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Newbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 53

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sidesprang
Profile Joined January 2009
Norway1033 Posts
January 10 2014 21:17 GMT
#1041
I'm here, but kinda busy playing DnD online. I'm not convinced the chance of OWB being scum is higher than dnyerri atm. I'll try to look into BigDad.
Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 21:21 GMT
#1042
Ok:

Here are my possible scumpairs at this very moment:

1. BigDad/OWB
2. BigDad/Day_Walker
3. Sidesprang/Dnyarri
4. Sidesprang/OWB

I townread OWB for his recent post, but overall his D2 was pretty lackluster. His soft defenses of derrida and sidesprang were pretty bad. What bothers me is nobody is coming to his defense. Sidesprang and Bigdad are both afk, the people I think he is scum with. I had day_walker/owb as a high priorty scumpair, but bussing your teammate when it's 8 to 2 is a pretty bad idea since it gives us even MORE mislynches which will just make this game so easy.

If we are hitting scum right now in OWB: why is nobody coming to his defense? If we properly lynch today it's essentially game over for scum.




Deleted User 323385
Profile Joined December 2013
41 Posts
January 10 2014 21:21 GMT
#1043
This is my last post before end of the day. I hope there won't be another tie-vote against me haha.

My opinion on sidesprang:

Hasn't been very active and didn't bring much analysis to table early. It didn't alert me back then but on retrospective I find it somewhat alarming that their first vote was on theDragoon because "Voting for yourself make it an autovote for me." . sidesprang doesn't seem to have strong opinions.

Or didn't, until sidesprang posted about onlywonderboy. I think that links that sidesprang posted are very useful and helped me analyze onlywonderboy (if it's correct that onlywonderboy is scum). If onlywonderboy flips as scum, sidesprang will be heavily leaning town in my eyes (if it turns out that there is SK, I will consider the possibility that sidesprang is the SK).

Another note that I made was that sidesprang wasn't overly eager to vote me at D2 like BigDaddy.

So actually I'm NOT happy to lynch sidesprang this day.
TheChyz
Profile Joined November 2013
Canada238 Posts
January 10 2014 21:22 GMT
#1044
why do you think dnyarri is more likely scum than OWB?
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 21:24 GMT
#1045
On January 11 2014 01:21 sidesprang wrote:
I've actually been looking into OWB the last hour. I really dislike the lack of activity atm, and its making me paranoid.

I also took note of the post you are refering to, and find it somewhat wierd. Tho my thoughts where more that why would he say those things about Derrida if town allready moved past ? Unless he knew derrida was scum and he went overly defensive about it.

I read up on a few of his old games:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=433102&user=onlywonderboy&currentpage=3
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=430766&user=onlywonderboy

I do feel his scumgame resembles this game more than his towngame. Tho I might just see what I want to see, so if someone else can also take a look at it, that would be nice. Also you played with him before Balla could you give some more insight since you were in those games.

I feel he is more passive and talks about non reads stuff in his scum game, which I also feel he has been doing to some extent here. And in his town game he seems to be tring a lot more to find scum.

Also if you check his profile you can see he is active here on TL.net. So why is he not posting more ?


Sidesprang. You had this to say about OWB. Yet now you don't want to lynch him? Who do you think is scum with dnyarri if you think dnyarri is so scummy?
TheChyz
Profile Joined November 2013
Canada238 Posts
January 10 2014 21:26 GMT
#1046
DNYARRI VOTE OR YOU WILL GET MODKILLED!
TheChyz
Profile Joined November 2013
Canada238 Posts
January 10 2014 21:27 GMT
#1047
nvm im retarded, just looked at lonemeow's latest post to see who didnt vote and didnt see his vote until now
sidesprang
Profile Joined January 2009
Norway1033 Posts
January 10 2014 21:35 GMT
#1048
On January 11 2014 06:24 Balla24 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 11 2014 01:21 sidesprang wrote:
I've actually been looking into OWB the last hour. I really dislike the lack of activity atm, and its making me paranoid.

I also took note of the post you are refering to, and find it somewhat wierd. Tho my thoughts where more that why would he say those things about Derrida if town allready moved past ? Unless he knew derrida was scum and he went overly defensive about it.

I read up on a few of his old games:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=433102&user=onlywonderboy&currentpage=3
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=430766&user=onlywonderboy

I do feel his scumgame resembles this game more than his towngame. Tho I might just see what I want to see, so if someone else can also take a look at it, that would be nice. Also you played with him before Balla could you give some more insight since you were in those games.

I feel he is more passive and talks about non reads stuff in his scum game, which I also feel he has been doing to some extent here. And in his town game he seems to be tring a lot more to find scum.

Also if you check his profile you can see he is active here on TL.net. So why is he not posting more ?


Sidesprang. You had this to say about OWB. Yet now you don't want to lynch him? Who do you think is scum with dnyarri if you think dnyarri is so scummy?
¨

Because I think its more likely that dnyarri is scum ?

I posted what I did because I was unsure about OWB, and wanted more input. And also wanted to provide the things I found to the town. As then others might see something I don't.

Atm I think its more likely and more rewarding to lynch dynarri. I see no strong cases for OWB, and feel we might just go away from dynarri because it felt to easy. So I would rather stick with my original read.
Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.
Deleted User 323385
Profile Joined December 2013
41 Posts
January 10 2014 21:38 GMT
#1049
Actually I'll stay here until day is over. Only 20 min left anyways.
TheChyz
Profile Joined November 2013
Canada238 Posts
January 10 2014 21:40 GMT
#1050
sidesprang, please provide the reasoning as to why you think dnyarri is a better target. You keep saying he is without any evidence atm.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 21:41 GMT
#1051
Sidesprang has these posts about Dnyarri:

On January 07 2014 21:55 sidesprang wrote:
Regarding dnyarri i'm not sold on him being mafia, and not on him being a better lynch either. His first two post were questionable at best, but his third one I really liked.

There are only two reasons to lynch a lurker as I see it.

1. There are no clear active mafia candidate
2. You will never be able to read the lurker.

I think when he posts some more we will be able to get a read on him, its not like he is posting one liners.



On January 09 2014 00:07 sidesprang wrote:
Hmm, so trying to read into the stuff that happend after I left yesterday and up to the vote.

It might just be because I know now that theDragoon is town. But his posts in the end is actually a really good and convincing defence. Like I dont think he would have done that as scum. And I would say atleast johnny and OWB are more town for doing that voteswitch.

Reason being:

If we actually lynched dnyarri and he came up town, they kinda stuck their neck out for nothing. The way they changed vote without any explanation and kinda out of the blue would have been hard to explain. Especially with a green lynch on their vote swap. I don't think scum would have taken that risk.


On the other hand, seeing how it went down. I can't fault others for not following, especially since I can only now read theDragoons post while knowing he is town. Its a bit hard for me to judge how much towny he looked before the vote.


I think we should spend some more energy on looking at the votes. I'll try to see if I can find something. And we also need to get dynarri to talk more. Atm he is the only one that is not contributing enough to be able to read properly. I thought / hoped he would be more active than this.


So Dnyarri: What are your current reads, and what do you think about the vote swaps onto you yesterday?


Then after day2 starts and our policy lynch bandwagon starts on him he votes him, sudden change of opinion even though dnyarri didn't say anything to THIS:

On January 09 2014 22:21 sidesprang wrote:
K, thanks. Then we should be in a very good position imo.

I'm trying to read into Derrida's filter, and I think Day_Walker also comes out more town from it. I doubt a he would buddy up like he did in the first post if Day_Walker was scum. I think it would be more an attempt to pocket him than anything else.

Also when reading Derrida's first post, he fails to mention both Asuna and Dnyarri. I have only read up on Dnyarri atm, but I really can not understand how you can fail to mention Dnyarri in a list like he made. He had only posted two post by that time.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 06 2014 20:05 dnyarri wrote:
I think TheChyz is suspicious. First he says (s)he wants so lynch lurkers anyway. When people started to suspect him/her (s)he said that (s)he did it on purpose to catch bandwagoners. Bandwagons however give lurkers easy targets which seems contradicts his/her original agenda of lynching lurkers.

Also, TheChyz has only brought confusion and only potentially useful analysis (s)he has brought to table is against Day_Walker who was attacking TheChyz with the list. It appears more like TheChyz is trying to save his/her skin. Though I think Day_Walker is suspicious because of the list, I find TheChyz more suspicious and I don't believe that as a scum Day_Walker would attack another scums this early.

##Vote: TheChyz


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 06 2014 23:43 dnyarri wrote:
Actually I have changed my primary target of suspicion from TheChyz to TheDragoon mainly because of this post:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723&currentpage=16#316

TheDragoon stated that Day_Walker seemed like innocent even though Day_Walker had only posted one list and nothing else. Day_Walker's only vote is against TheChyz which doesn't mean much since TheChyz is easy bandwagoning target. TheDragoon's post give me the impression that he wants to slow voting down by defending (random) people while going to TheChyz-bandwagon and attacking nobody else.

TheChyz is confusing but I'm not sure if it's carelessness or risk taking. My logic for calling him scum was somewhat faulted too I think.

##unvote
##vote: TheDragoon


In two posts, Dnyari votes for two different people. And his posts looks rather fishy to me. With posts like those two how can you not mention Dnyarri in a list like that. Unless you had a reason not to.

That coupled with derrida trying to prevent us from lynching lurkers, and in essence to save dnyarri makes me believe there is a high chance dnyarri is scum.

##Vote Dnyarri


"His posts look rather fishy" to you? Why weren't they fishy before? I don't get that. YOU ALSO tried to prevent us from lynching lurkers in the first post i quoted, yet you point out that derrida was also trying to prevent us to not lynch lurkers.

Also, this post here:

On January 09 2014 20:40 sidesprang wrote:
I think Balla just assumed the roleblocker had to be mafia, but town can have one aswell. So that should not make you confirmed.

But atleast, If there are a town roleblocker I think you should roleblock Asuna again just on the odd chance he is SK.


Is super fishy to me. Of course I assume the roleblocker is mafia. Asuna wasn't giving out any super scummy feeling, I don't see why a town RB'er would RB Asuna first off. And secondly, I was fishing for scum RB target claims. No town RB has claimed it yet so I'm still assuming that. I understand that there is the possibility of a town RB keeping it under wraps and that is fine.

Sidesprang trying to keep the fact that it could be a town RB out there is really weird to me.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 21:42 GMT
#1052
On January 11 2014 06:35 sidesprang wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 11 2014 06:24 Balla24 wrote:
On January 11 2014 01:21 sidesprang wrote:
I've actually been looking into OWB the last hour. I really dislike the lack of activity atm, and its making me paranoid.

I also took note of the post you are refering to, and find it somewhat wierd. Tho my thoughts where more that why would he say those things about Derrida if town allready moved past ? Unless he knew derrida was scum and he went overly defensive about it.

I read up on a few of his old games:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=433102&user=onlywonderboy&currentpage=3
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=430766&user=onlywonderboy

I do feel his scumgame resembles this game more than his towngame. Tho I might just see what I want to see, so if someone else can also take a look at it, that would be nice. Also you played with him before Balla could you give some more insight since you were in those games.

I feel he is more passive and talks about non reads stuff in his scum game, which I also feel he has been doing to some extent here. And in his town game he seems to be tring a lot more to find scum.

Also if you check his profile you can see he is active here on TL.net. So why is he not posting more ?


Sidesprang. You had this to say about OWB. Yet now you don't want to lynch him? Who do you think is scum with dnyarri if you think dnyarri is so scummy?
¨

Because I think its more likely that dnyarri is scum ?

I posted what I did because I was unsure about OWB, and wanted more input. And also wanted to provide the things I found to the town. As then others might see something I don't.

Atm I think its more likely and more rewarding to lynch dynarri. I see no strong cases for OWB, and feel we might just go away from dynarri because it felt to easy. So I would rather stick with my original read.
Then please explain why you flip flopped on dnyarri from D1 to D2.
probuLing
Profile Blog Joined January 2014
United States75 Posts
January 10 2014 21:44 GMT
#1053
Hmm, well OWB it is o.o

##Vote: onlywonderboy
Tracking NA/EU/KR GM bonus pools: http://gm.probuling.com
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 21:44 GMT
#1054
A note on my town RB point. If there was a town RB there should have been 2 RB claims. One from scum and one from town. If you are town RB and you DID RB asuna then that means you pretty much have a confirmed SK.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 21:45 GMT
#1055
On January 11 2014 06:44 Asuna wrote:
Hmm, well OWB it is o.o

##Vote: onlywonderboy


No STOP please think critically. Biggest bullshit vote ever.
TheChyz
Profile Joined November 2013
Canada238 Posts
January 10 2014 21:45 GMT
#1056
Why asuna? You didn't vote until 15 minutes before deadline. super sketch. WHY?
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 21:46 GMT
#1057
That's really sketchy.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 21:46 GMT
#1058
Chyz, 5 sec feelings on sidesprang?
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
January 10 2014 21:47 GMT
#1059
I want to hear Asuna's reasoning before the deadline passes.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 21:47 GMT
#1060
Lightning posting guys we need it.. only 13 minutes left and we might be mislynching here.
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