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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
Disregard everything I said yesterday btw. It was all bad. I got confirmation from host that SK can even hold his shots forever. So ignore everything I said about heavenz. Also the scum winconditions are not kill all townies. Because when all townies are dead they can still lose vs the SK. If it is goon/gf vs bulletproof SK last night. Or share victory if they would have shot each other. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
On September 30 2013 09:30 stormtemplar wrote: Yeah, 7 rolls C would give us a 1- Shot cop We know we have a 1 shot vigi and a Town RB from flips so thats VB CVB if heavenz and I are both legit, that would require a VVVBBBC, which would be the max number of town power roles. Mafia would consist of a RB and a godfather. There wouldn't be an SK and a doctor is impossible. Can somebody explain this? Are you claiming a powerrole stormtemplar? Or did you think you were a vigi? Mluneth already flipped 1 shot vigi. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
TTTT means that there are 2 goons and a scum RB. Which also is consistant with what we know. If there is 1 more powerrole hiding on townside it is likely a doc, can't believe another 2 powerrole letters were generated. This means that there is likely going to be an SK because TTT is (TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) ). The chance on something more than a doc is close to 0. _____________ TTTTBVC means we play vs a roleblocker and 2 goons. I am going to give Zaragon a townread, I just read his filter. He constantly tried to push this game forward, the offchance he is scum I applaud him for trying to make a game out of this. On top of that I believe his claim. This means JonnyLaw is also town. So we are stuck with these 4 in which the remaining 2 scummers are hiding: playerboy345 heavenz stormtemplar Balla24 I am going to claim VT. Hopefully you guys believe me. Blurry wasn't the guy he was from his previous game, but his opening post was pretty protown. Obviously this is far from enough, and with only 3 posts after that I know you don't want to give him a townread. Lets trow some Hostwifom in the thread as well. It's the worst kinda wifom but why not. So the host had to choose between modkilling 4 people. This could have been SK,scum,town. I think we can agree he was always going to modkill the SK if there was one between the 4 modkills. So the question is was it 3VT and 1 scum, or was it 2 scum and 2 VT. I think that could go either way. So sadly I can't modconfirm me as townie D: This all said let's go back to our 4 targets and let's pretend I am VT. playerboy345 heavenz (claimed vt+rb) stormtemplar (town for these reasons here and here. I find this guy is townier than Zaragon tbh. Zaragon has his claim though, and because I don't want to retype everything I am keeping stormtemplar here. Balla24 Now out of these 3 players I don't know who I like the least yet. I am think bereft RB on Blurry because bereft respected blurry from the previous games and might have thought he was mafia lurking. I need to read bereft his filter and see if he breadcrumbed his RB. I truly hope he did. But if you breadcrumb something you do it to prove your blue role and not to let the thread know what you did so I doubt I will find it. But the filters are small this game. I say this because I have issues with how Balla24 trow his vote around on day 2. Why not believe the RB claim? I almost think it makes him town, because scum knows that they have a RB and they knows bereft flipped RB. Like... Why not believe 1 RB claim if you know there should have been 2 claims... On the other hand it could be that Bella is scum and RB on Blurry and he forgot that there was a RB flipped on townside or something... I really don't understand it. So yeah. I think we should look at those 3 players and find scum there. Ohyeah. If there is another powerrole... Probably doc. I don't know. But if it is between those last 3... I would claim tbh. Because that means that there are still 2 scums and an SK left. And then the SK is going to be Stormtemplar. I don't know if you need to claim though. Is Zaragon town guys? If he is then we have towncheck on jonny. I find Stormtemplar very protown. Agreed? If there is a blue role hiding. Look what you are, and how many letters were randomed for your role. Do you believe Zaragon? If you do these are the options left. TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather As you can see 1 letter means there is still 3 antitown left and this game can be over tomorrow lol. But if you rolled a 2 letter role this means that jonny might be scum godfather. That's all I have for now. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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heavenz
Austria301 Posts
Let's take a look at the voting. Day1 BajaBlood was going with his vote right of the bat for xIvan. I doubt any mafia player would just start bussing his teammate in a situation like this when there are 3 other afk players. He was away on day2 and now, but this is a big town tell for me. The afk wave: Playerboy is voting for Jayte , Zaragon for Blurry, Onlywounderboy on Blurry, Baja switches to Jayte, Bella for Blurry JonnyLaw and I start talking about the point that it's more value to not lynch someone who's afk (and eventually be modkilled / replaced) He votes for Stormtemplar, Heavenz too The votecount is as follows then: Blurry (3): Zaragon, onlywonderboy, Balla24 Jayte (2): playerboy345, BajaBlood stormtemplar (2): JonnyLaw, heavenz xIvanJ (0): BajaBlood playerboy unvotes and votes on onlywonderboy, Stormtemplar on Blurry, Bereft on Jayte Then Zaragon posts this and starts the lynch train on Myluneth Got caught up in an intriguing conversation with a friend, now the hour is late. MLuneth is the only person who has posted considerable amounts that I would vote for. I don't know if he's bad town or scum either, it's strange to assert himself like he does as either town or scum and then not to be responding now. Feels like scum constructing a case and dropping off at suspicions. I wanted to push Blurry to contribute, he hasn't. I'm comfortable switching off him for now since he doesn't even seem to be coming in to vote. ##Vote MLuneth Since he had some suspicious posts which I mentioned and general consent that he was weird , and it was the generall consent that Zaragon is towny, Jonnylaw on MLuneth I want to call this guy scum from my gut. I really, really want to do it. But re-reading his posts just make me think he's a bit hasty and not scum at all. There are grammatical errors, shortened words and that half written post he managed to post. I dunno, he doesn't feel like mafia at this point in the game. My take on the case: I also don't think you're suspicious. Like I said too I don't want to vote Blurry or Bereft. From the active players Stormtemplar and Mluneth are suspicious then we have still Jeyte and xIvanJ, I would be willing to vote them too though Strong town read on: Me, Bella24, Zaragon, onlywounderboy, good: Baja Blood, Jonny Law Suspicious Stormtemplar,Mluneth (100% of his posts are suspicious, but that's so over the top that it would be odd if he was mafia) I wouldn't be surprised if there was a playerboy & stormtemplar mafia. This is where I failed, I think Jonny failed there too. Both of us acknowledge that Mluneth is somewhat scummy, yet both of us also acknowledge that he's probably town. What we can see is the vote swing now: Jonny and I don't want to lynch lurkers as it wouldn't really give us something, Zaragon who is playing cleanly suggests Myluneth, and time is short, we are not going to get more votes on Stormtemplar. My priority was to keep Blurry alive too, I was willing to vote some afk, but time was short, Blurry was set, we didn't get majority on Storm, I followed Zaragon on Mluneth, in the hope that his read was better than mine. Jonnylaw votes Myluneth, Heavenz votes Myluneth Bella24 votes for Myluneth Myluneth get's killed and is 1shot vigi. final votecount: Blurry (2): Jayte (2): stormtemplar (0): xIvanJ (0): onlywonderboy (1): playerboy345 MLuneth (4): Zaragon, JohnnyLaw, heavenz, Balla24 From this everyone should be able to draw some conclusion for himself, I want to point something out too. Balla24 @JonnyLaw I'm not sold on stormtemplar's behavior being scummy. I would like to both hear more from you about it on why you think his posts have been scummy and also stormtemplar's defense. But at this point I'm not really reading scum from his posts besides the fact that he hasn't really shared tooo much about his reads and has just been going off of others. At least he is disagreeing with people which I like. EBWOP: oh they aren't going to vote probably so they will get modkilled, my bad! In that case I will wait a little longer. I'm not feeling stormtemplar as scum still. Jonnylaw can you please elaborate on why you think he's scummy? Ugh sorry I got distracted in some SC2 games, didn't expect this much to happen, let me see if anything would change my mind. MLuneth was suspicious to me before but it didn't seem like anybody else agreed except Zaragon. I would be comfortable lynching him rather than stormtemplar, but I still think we need to be looking at these inactive people and not relying on the modkills. My take on the thing: you're acting as if mluneth isn't an afker, not voting = modkilled/ replaced... we have 4 people not voting tonight Playerboys I'm not too comfortable with the MLuneth lynch to be honest, I really don't get that much of a scum read from him :/ Balla24s @heavenz yeah but he's less of an afker than the rest.. it's impossible to make a vote when all the suspects are fucking afk T_T Read Balla24s defense, he was not willing to argue on Stromtemplar in the least. I would be comfortable lynching him rather than stormtemplar, but I still think we need to be looking at these inactive people and not relying on the modkills He even would rather go for the away player even though we mostly agreed that it would be a useless lynch. All to deviate from Stormtemplar. Note how Stormtemplar voted for Blurry, didn't participate at all in the discussion. (Bella24 on his 1. nightpost after the lynch) I'm still not very convinced about stormtemplar. Waiting for his defense, he was here recently and should definitely be posting his defense. Hopefully, if he is scum, we can see some holes and I can hop on board the jonnylaw/heavenz train. Day2 Stormtemplars defense; he posts a list with the names of all active players and a sentence to each, then this. As for the attacks on me, I do agree that I need to play better and this post is an attempt to do so. Still, I think some of the analysis of my actual posts is off the mark. I especially find it odd that someone criticized my lack of contribution, then when I pointed out my feelings about playerboy he claimed I was trying to distract the discussion. It seems a little contradictory to claim I didn't read enough, then when I do, that I'm just trying to distract the discussion. Further: EBWOP: One thing to mention is that blurry said he'd post reads of everyone before the night is out, and we have two hours to go and still nothing. He could post in the next two hours, but if he doesn't I'd be rather suspicious. then Balla24's next post is: Alright it's the end of night 1 and still nothing from Blurry (who said he would post a full analysis by the end of the night) and the other guys, xIvanJ and Jayte. Playerboy quotes the guys on the bandwagon too, (Zaragon, Balla24, onlywonderboy) with this question These three vote for Blurry, why? Zaragon votes him based on Blurry's meta. In the previous game Blurry had a good opening post much like in this game, the difference between this game and the previous game is that in the previous game Blurry continued to contribute and in the current game he didn't. This is just such an easy thing to pick on - the reason that he hasn't really contributed that much is because he has been inactive. onlywonderboy picks it as a safe bet because he won't be able to be online for the deadline. I don't understand why Balla24 is voting for Blurry here though, he didn't seem all that interested in Blurry before, so why pick him over Jayte/xIvanJ who are just as inactive as Blurry. Playerboy does some quality work unlike the rest of the guys who lazy sit back and write a line to each player once a day Also note that Balla24 switches his vote to MLuneth aswell. He says he's the only suspicious person besides the afkers, while I can agree that his posting was indeed odd, it doesn't explain his sudden switch. He agrees with BajaBlood: On September 27 2013 06:53 BajaBlood wrote: Yes, in his other game (as scum) he was very sheepy early on until he started getting accused, then got aggresively defensive (think the word they used in the thread was 'shitflinging', lol). Whereas in this game, he's making reads right off the bat and playing much more in-your-face. I think his heavenz read was terrible, and a number of his other posts (including the question) are bizzare, but I'm not reading it as scum yet. Plus if we keep him around and he is in fact scum I think we'll have an easier time classifying him then some other players What BajaBlood says is don't lynch MLuneth because if he is scum it'll be easy to tell. WHY DO YOU VOTE HIM IF YOU AGREE THAT LETTING HIM LIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY WILL MAKE IT EASY TO TELL IF HE IS SCUM OR NOT? I'm sorry but that just makes absolutely 0 sense to me. onlywonderboy: You say Blurry flew under the radar for you and that is why you voted him. Then what about the other inactives, you are not gonna tell me they didn't flew under the radar, right? So why DID you vote for Blurry? Were you in a hurry because you had to leave and left with a half-assed post? Or did you just decide to vote for him because your mafia teammates (assuming both Balla24 and Zaragon are scum) did so you could boost the votes in your favor? I don't got much proof and this is basically just theorycrafting but I think Zaragon/Balla24/onlywonderboy might be our scum combo. Let me know what you guys think. sadly you were slightly off bro, but at that point we weren't yet able to make the case against the scum. I am also not going to post all of Stormtemplars "defense". It was stuff like this, read his filter. Playerboy has been actively useless. The main two people he's called out have been zaragon and bereft, which is just odd. As I pointed out in my analysis, I'm really weirded out by the fact that he read me as stronger town then zaragon or bereft. As glad as I am to have someone coming to my defense, I just find it doubtful that someone could look at day one from and town perspective and hold that view. I almost wonder if he's trying to make me look guilty by association, or get town cred by defending me. I gotta say, it sounds ideal for him as mafia for him to unsuccessfully defend me, I flip town and he gets cred and Jonnylaw looks like scum for attacking me so much. However back to the voting, playerboy made a solid case, which was a bit off, zaragon was confirmed town, and he couldn't yet vote for Balla24. I pushed Onlywonderboy too, he hadn't contributed, and I didn't see that we get Stormtemplar against the will of Zaragon and Balla24, there was a chance that he was scum too, as even Bereft thought so. One more, in case you didn't had enough Alright, I wasn't posting to let the stormtemplar/jonnylaw conversation continue a little while. I wasn't digging stormtemplar for mafia, and i'm still not really sure. He responds to jonnylaw's pressure well IMO. I don't think he seemed angry and he brings up the point of him bussing playerboy early on (if both were mafia). both were pushing for me on day2, but everyone can see that in their filters. Day2 voting Stormtemplar for playerboy playerboy for onlywonderboy, bella24 for onlywonderboy, heavenz for onlywonderboy, Zaragon for onlywonderboy onlywonderboy for heavenz Bella24 unvote Jonnylaw for playerboy Bella24 for heavenz Final Votecount! onlywonderboy (3): playerboy345, playerboy345 (2): stormtemplar, JonnyLaw heavenz (2): onlywonderboy, Balla24 Blurry (1): Blurry Not voting (3): xIvanJ, Jayte, BajaBlood onlywonderboy, Vanilla Townie, was lynched! If we look again at the voting behavior we will see a exact repeat of day1. Stormtemplar votes away, with the lnych vote for playerboy and the afk when the voting/lynch time comes. Baja24 jumps on the lynch train and makes certain we get the misslynch I'm gonna put my vote on onlywonderboy (##vote: onlywonderboy), he needs to defend himself. If there is no defense in an hour or so I will remove for the time being and reconsider. I don't want to make the same mistake as last day so I'm going to be here the entire time. then votes me ##vote Heavenz I don't buy it, and I don't understand why you do Zaragon and after this goes through I'd like to hear why you buy it. Notice also how only Stormtemplar and Balla24 start accusin me of beeing sk, without there beeing any evidence that there is a SK (I don't think so) Bella24 I wasn't the deciding factor.. I was hoping that Zaragon would switch his vote to heavenz but I wasn't 100% sure on onlywonderboy, I wanted to vote him so that he would defend himself and we could clear himself but I still wasn't sure he was town... with his flip we can go after heavenz and playerboy... both were pushing OWB pretty hard and both are scummy. calling your vote not the deciding factor is nice. Better make sure the lynch train is going and then having "not the deciding vote". I'm still not sold on the fact that Heavenz isn't scum just because he was roleblocked, especially when we know it wasn't a mafia roleblock. You all saw how "fuck it all" he was when he got roleblocked. I'm scared of SK and he's the only one who seems like an SK at this point mafia trying to make town belive in SK to stop the scumhunt. 3rd Point, the Roleblock What we know: Bereft was Roleblocker. What we can safly assume (going by the Mafia given roles, Goon, RB, GF): The Mafia has a Roleblocker Who claimed beeing Roleblocked: Blurry, Heavenz We have no evidence of a 3rd Roleblocker. Stormtemplar Ah, alright, didn't know if an unclaimed should come out. I will then: I'm a town roleblocker, I suspected heavenz and playerboy night one, and decided to block heavenz last minute over playerboy. Bella24 regard Stormtemplar You haven't been under suspicion for a while now, and you claiming that you roleblocked heavenz makes perfect sense. I 100% believe you. It is an easy thing to claim though so maybe we should re-think that. The fact that you even bring that up though makes me believe you even more. Truth. I belive him too, that he is a Roleblocker, I don't think he's town however. My day1 play was decent, I made some points, which I where further explained in this post. He decides to roleblock me. The Roleblock on Blurry makes on first glance no sense, but when we see that Bereft was the Roleblocker, and we know that both played in the last game too, where Blurry played endlessly better than he, he was suspicious of him "staying under cover" too and thus roleblocked him. The conclusion: http://hydra-media.cursecdn.com/dota2.gamepedia.com/d/db/Invo_level_05.mp3 Point1. Day1 voting. Stormtemplar nullvote; afk, Bella24 defending him (I don't feel he's guilty, wait for his defence etc.) Point2 Night1/Day2 Stormtemplars defense, Bella24's defense of Stormtemplar, both vs playerboy, both on me as SK Point3 Day2 voting Stormtemplar nullvote; afk. Bella24 riding lynchtrain, jumping off to further improve point2 Point4 Roleblock /Scumslip No evidence of 3 Roleblockers, Not likely that Scum has 2 goons and Gf, Not likely that town has 2 Roleblockers, very likely that town has 1 Roleblocker and Scum 1 Roleblocker (the given roles). Very likely that scum roleblocked me night1, stormtemplar claimed he roleblocked me, Bella24 supported/defended him immidiatly. =>Stormtemplar Scum Roleblocker, Bella24 GF Thank me later, if there's and SK call me... maybe? | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
Who is the extra powerrole on town? When were you RB? Why did you wait so long to say something? | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
On September 30 2013 09:18 stormtemplar wrote: Ah, alright, didn't know if an unclaimed should come out. I will then: I'm a town roleblocker, I suspected heavenz and playerboy night one, and decided to block heavenz last minute over playerboy. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH How did I miss this? Ah ffs. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
So that means that Bella24 is just a goon and not a GF for your theory. Which doesn't change anything. But it is interesting that you come to the conclusion that there is a GF. I wonder if this is a scumslip because stormtemplar is really a town roleblocker and you know there is a GF. You just swapped the names around. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
On September 30 2013 09:18 stormtemplar wrote: Ah, alright, didn't know if an unclaimed should come out. I will then: I'm a town roleblocker, I suspected heavenz and playerboy night one, and decided to block heavenz last minute over playerboy. My good man, do you realize that what you say is that when the setup was made, the hosts rolled 3 times between number 95-100 out of 7? Ugh. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On day2 voting. I wasn't the deciding vote... not at all. I voted on Heavenz to try to get support from Jonnylaw and Zaragon but that didn't happen. Zaragon was the deciding vote. I was very clear on my voting stance on day 2. I said at the beginning of voting what my plan was, to vote on OWB to get him to defend himself and then reconsider. That's exactly what I did.. Maybe I should have switched earlier or something to get more people to think about it but I didn't so you live and you learn. On stormtemplar being scum roleblocker. You're right, he definitely could be and I should not blindly believe him. That actually makes more sense. Bereft roleblocks Blurry and stormtemplar roleblocks you. Stormtemplar has just played less scum then you all game and he got my backing with my tunnel vision. I won't believe stormtemplar as town RB until there is more proof. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On September 30 2013 21:20 Koshi wrote: I am going to believe stormtemplar tbh. There was no reason for him to claim RB after a RB already flipped. wtf the chances of this setup are low. like REALLY LOW. I can't believe this shit... That's true too. Looking at the way he claimed it and how he talks openly about how we shouldn't trust him is really a town tell. Or a really good scum player. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On September 30 2013 09:18 stormtemplar wrote: Ah, alright, didn't know if an unclaimed should come out. I will then: I'm a town roleblocker, I suspected heavenz and playerboy night one, and decided to block heavenz last minute over playerboy. On September 30 2013 11:27 stormtemplar wrote: Also, random question, I don't exactly follow why everyone is so sure I'm town after I claimed. I presume there's a reason but what is it? This is what i'm talking about btw. | ||
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RandomAccount#49059
United States2140 Posts
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RandomAccount#49059
United States2140 Posts
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