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On September 15 2013 07:29 Umasi wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2013 07:27 Grackaroni wrote:
Actually with only 1 death, S&B's awesome crumb must have been wrong. BH is SQUM someone might have landed a protect. doesn't matter, he's obviously anti-town now, unless there are two of the same role in this game :||||
YOU KNOW
this isn't the first time this has happened to me... (link)
I can't imagine how I could convince you guys not to lynch me short of writing a super case on scum. fuck fuck fuck
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Now I know you guys all want to lynch me, since another survivor has flipped. BUT, I THiNK THERE arE THINGS ABOUT THAT FLIp THAT MAKE ME LOOK GOOD.
1) how would I know that survivors are two-shot hiders unless I too was a survivor?
2) all the arguments about why I'm survivor and not scum STILL APPLY
IN FACT, my suspicion on WoS WAS GOOD. He wasn't a townie! AND I FIGUrED THAT OUT. I should get credit for that at least!
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I'm not saying there's no reason to be suspicious of me-- there obviously is. 2 survivors in a game, especially a normal mini, is pretty rare. But it happens! ShiaoPi is crazy, he'd do it. I'm not confirmed scum. So given that there's a non-zero chance that I am who I say I am, all I ask is this: read what I have to say today. If you dismiss it, you dismiss it. But I will try to convince you to let me live.
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On September 15 2013 07:41 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2013 07:40 Old Partner wrote:
Now I know you guys all want to lynch me, since another survivor has flipped. BUT, I THiNK THERE arE THINGS ABOUT THAT FLIp THAT MAKE ME LOOK GOOD.
1) how would I know that survivors are two-shot hiders unless I too was a survivor?
2) all the arguments about why I'm survivor and not scum STILL APPLY
IN FACT, my suspicion on WoS WAS GOOD. He wasn't a townie! AND I FIGUrED THAT OUT. I should get credit for that at least! You should have picked another fake role provided by the hosts ##vote: Old Partner
Why the dicks would hosts provide a survivor role to scum when there's already a survivor in the game? That would be like bastard host tier.
Look, at least admit there's a CHANCE I am who I say I am. There is, isn't there?
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On September 15 2013 07:41 Umasi wrote:
upon cursory glance at wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Golden_Sun_characters) and ctrl-f ing 'captain'
it doesn't exist.
OK 1) why wouldn't you bring this up earlier
2) how the dicks am I supposed to know, I haven't played the golden sun. If I were going to construct my own fakeclaim i'd probably use something from wikipedia or something right?
In fact, the fact that it's not on wikipedia is evidence that my claim is legit! A fakeclaimer would use something obviously from the game.
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On September 15 2013 07:43 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2013 07:41 Umasi wrote:
upon cursory glance at wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Golden_Sun_characters) and ctrl-f ing 'captain'
it doesn't exist. Doesn't matter, the fact that he got the "hide" right it means that it is a fake role provided by the hosts or he is indeed the survivor. He didn't make up the entire role.
this logic is sound. The 2-shot hiding ability means that there are only two possibilities
1) I am who I say I am
2) I got the role from the hosts
there's no chance (or at least an unbelievably slim chance, one not worth mentioning) that I made up the role PM on my own AND happened to make it up to be a 2-shot hider.
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On September 15 2013 07:43 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2013 07:42 Old Partner wrote:On September 15 2013 07:41 Koshi wrote:On September 15 2013 07:40 Old Partner wrote:
Now I know you guys all want to lynch me, since another survivor has flipped. BUT, I THiNK THERE arE THINGS ABOUT THAT FLIp THAT MAKE ME LOOK GOOD.
1) how would I know that survivors are two-shot hiders unless I too was a survivor?
2) all the arguments about why I'm survivor and not scum STILL APPLY
IN FACT, my suspicion on WoS WAS GOOD. He wasn't a townie! AND I FIGUrED THAT OUT. I should get credit for that at least! You should have picked another fake role provided by the hosts ##vote: Old Partner Why the dicks would hosts provide a survivor role to scum when there's already a survivor in the game? That would be like bastard host tier. Look, at least admit there's a CHANCE I am who I say I am. There is, isn't there? 1% 2 survivors could be but then there is no SK And I tell you this: WoS was not killed by scummers. Unless some sick bluehunting was going on.
Far be it from me to speculate about night actions, but I'm betting WoS WAS killed by scummers. The reason I say this is that he got killed N1. If you are a 2-shot hiding survivor, and you're telling the truth about being AFK for like 30 hours or whatever during N1, you would sure as hell decide to ##hide because of the possibility of being vigied. The only way he could be dead is that scum hid their roleblock under him. They RBed him, cancelling his hide, and shot him.
The other possibility is an SK has a "always works" night kill, and I guess WoS wasn't exactly a town leader, which makes scum less likely to shoot him.
However, I could see WoS as a bluesnipe. He was acting strangely-- strangely enough that I noticed, for example, and if you're scum and you see someone acting strange, you dont' think "scum"-- you think "blue"
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On September 15 2013 07:48 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2013 07:45 Grackaroni wrote:On September 15 2013 07:43 Koshi wrote:On September 15 2013 07:42 Old Partner wrote:On September 15 2013 07:41 Koshi wrote:On September 15 2013 07:40 Old Partner wrote:
Now I know you guys all want to lynch me, since another survivor has flipped. BUT, I THiNK THERE arE THINGS ABOUT THAT FLIp THAT MAKE ME LOOK GOOD.
1) how would I know that survivors are two-shot hiders unless I too was a survivor?
2) all the arguments about why I'm survivor and not scum STILL APPLY
IN FACT, my suspicion on WoS WAS GOOD. He wasn't a townie! AND I FIGUrED THAT OUT. I should get credit for that at least! You should have picked another fake role provided by the hosts ##vote: Old Partner Why the dicks would hosts provide a survivor role to scum when there's already a survivor in the game? That would be like bastard host tier. Look, at least admit there's a CHANCE I am who I say I am. There is, isn't there? 1% 2 survivors could be but then there is no SK And I tell you this: WoS was not killed by scummers. Unless some sick bluehunting was going on. What player do you think would kill WoS? I would think it's somebody who he's confident at reading and I don't know who that is in this game. 2 options: 1) SK that doesn't care and snipes out WoS because WoS likely wasn't scum. But also wasn't scumhunting. SK wants a good balance. 2) Scumteam that thought that WoS was blue. The first is way more likely.
Only if you don't factor in the idea that WoS probably ##hided last night. Then you're comparing the relative likelihoods of SK having protection-piercing bullets (reasonably common) or scum having an RB (very common) and using it on him.
Not that it matters a huge amount to me. I need to write the mother of all cases to not get lynched today.
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On September 15 2013 07:46 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm just going to ignore BH, he's the lynch for the day. the chance of 2 survivors combined with his play this game makes it a 99.99% chance he is a baddie. We can still do some scumhunting aside from him.
Ok Grack ignoring me is not the right move here. How about this: you're not obligated to unvote me. Maybe you think there really is only a one in ten thousand chance that ShiaoPi put two survivors in this game. I think the chance is somewhat higher in general, but maybe you think that.
Still, my goal here is to write a case so good that it convinces people not to lynch a 2nd survivor claim. Surely you can see why something like that is worth reading, even if it's not worth unvoting me?
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On September 15 2013 07:54 Umasi wrote:
why would they?
scum doesn't control the vote, and that's normally the wincon.
the wincon this game it's different. it's "outnumber townspeople"
in 6 - 2 - 4, scum doesn't win since there are 6 townspeople and 4 scum.
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On September 15 2013 07:55 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2013 07:54 Umasi wrote:
why would they?
scum doesn't control the vote, and that's normally the wincon. Yeah true I guess.
scum can win a little earlier without controlling the vote. for example:
1-2-2
in this case, with 1 townsperson, 2 survivors, and 2 scum, scum does not control the vote, but they win because they outnumber the townspeople.
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I'd like to note that this particular change in wording, the different scum wincon, is something that only really makes sense if there are two Survivors, also!
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On September 15 2013 08:03 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm going to feel so stupid if BH is actually a 2nd survivor lol.
how else do you explain the changed scum wincon?
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:| if I was the SK I'd have claimied vigi. I guess I'd have shot WoS BUT THATS NOT THE POINT
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WOW ITS ALMOST LIKE IM ACTUALLY THE SURVIVOR
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A fake role PM of a survivor role that's already in the game? A change in the scum wincon that only applies in games with 2 survivors? COME ON GUYS THiNK ABOUT IT
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On September 15 2013 08:23 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2013 08:20 Old Partner wrote:
A fake role PM of a survivor role that's already in the game? A change in the scum wincon that only applies in games with 2 survivors? COME ON GUYS THiNK ABOUT IT THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SCUM WINCON. I quoted it.... btw, obviously scum got cop/doc/survivor/vt claims lol...
What do you mean there is no change? Most of the time the wincon is
"scum win when they control the lynch"
this time it's
"scum win when they equal or outnumber the townspeople"
which is different, but only in this situation:
1 VT, 2 Survivors 2 Scum
in which scum DO NOT control the lynch, but they DO outnumber townspeople. This only exists in a game with two survivors!
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Man if I'm the SK don't you want me alive anyways fuuuuu
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On September 15 2013 08:48 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2013 08:35 Old Partner wrote:On September 15 2013 08:23 Koshi wrote:On September 15 2013 08:20 Old Partner wrote:
A fake role PM of a survivor role that's already in the game? A change in the scum wincon that only applies in games with 2 survivors? COME ON GUYS THiNK ABOUT IT THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SCUM WINCON. I quoted it.... btw, obviously scum got cop/doc/survivor/vt claims lol... What do you mean there is no change? Most of the time the wincon is "scum win when they control the lynch" this time it's "scum win when they equal or outnumber the townspeople" which is different, but only in this situation: 1 VT, 2 Survivors 2 Scum in which scum DO NOT control the lynch, but they DO outnumber townspeople. This only exists in a game with two survivors! Dont spew bullshit. Go read the rules of the newbie games. Go read the rules of Sicilian. Persona/Titanic says scum needs to outnumber town. If you are clinging to something silly like this -_-. Just provide us with a 96% scum tomorrow and we wont lynch you! You are 95% scum or SK.
bah it's just one among many points why it's clearly POSSIBLE I'm a 2nd survivor. If people at least admit the possibility! Then there's a chance I live!
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Man I think Kush is scum but there isn't a case to be written on him right now that would convince people not to lynch me. I must find a better target or write a better case!
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EPT
