EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLVII - Page 2
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
i will need to reanalyze over the weekend when i have more time, but for now, i remain solid on the point that lord velocity is scum, and i would like to add killerdog to that list. i've iterated this in multiple of my previous posts, but since almost nobody chose to vote with me, i'll build my case here again: LV starts off with a couple random lines saying he thinks anyone advocating no lynch is suspicious, and then proceeds to absolutely PANIC after blurry and myself say so far we're getting the strongest scum read out of him. at this point the game has barely started and there are only a couple posts from a few players, so was i definitely under the impression that he was scum and attempting to build a solid case against him? no, of course not. it's true that out of the few posts i had to look at, his was the most contentless and thoughtless at the time, but the main point of calling out his post was to initiate interesting discussion (ie take us away from the repetitive "to lynch day 1 or not to lynch" argument) as well as to gauge his reaction. his reaction was to complain that it was unfair, that he's new, that he's just a shitty town player -- basically a bunch of bullshit excuses. the main giveaway in my eyes is that he comes after the people who accused him; first umasi, then blurry, then inevitably me. and i say 'inevitably' because i repeatedly call him out and his only way of defending himself thus far has been to go offense on the accuser. this is not pro-town behavior whatsoever as he's not taking a step back to reevaluate his actions and explain his thought process, but purely a defense mechanism of someone feeling like they've been backed into a corner. also, i really want to call everyone's attention to this post: On September 05 2013 06:04 Lord Velocity wrote: So I think Killerdog is safe to say town because of his willingness to give reads, scummy or not scummy, on everybody who provided information, because if he was mafia then he could've gave his Mafia buddies away with the reads but that would be a major slip so I'm going to assume that he's town just purely on that like, page long read list. I would base a circle off him if I were trusted but I'm pretty sure I'm not getting into any circles right now. Now I think that Holy is more iffy in the whole, Umasi/Holy argument seeing as Umasi wants to know more about the group we have before us and he wants more reads on who he should trust (Forgive me if I got that wrong umasi) and who could be trusted. But Holy hasn't pointed any suspicion towards anybody else and he's targeted me this game and a little bit of focus went onto Umasi but I believe that's resolved now. I personally would like to hear more of Holy's reads on others, prefferably his thoughts on Heavenz and Lonemeow. I've already stated that Umasi seems more town of the pair, and Killer seems town, ummmm sorry I just focused more on them this post because they stood out the most so I read their stuff so I will now go read people individually, feel free to ask me who you want a read on and I will get back to you, I just got home so I might be doing hw for the next hour or so maybe let me give you the timeline for this: + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2013 13:00 Bereft wrote: 1. Umasi + Show Spoiler + one of the most active posters - the fact that he's willing to use his vote to pressure people makes him pro-town in my eyes. why? voting patterns can be one of the strongest ways to make a case against scum, so the fact that he's not wary to use his vote is encouraging 2. Infii + Show Spoiler + he wrote one main analytical post, but it's hard for me to take it seriously because he analyzes myrzeth's "/in" and pharcyd3's ridiculous 1-liner. really needs to step it up, will become increasingly suspicious if he continues to provide such fluffy analysis 3. heavenz + Show Spoiler + pretty much what i said in my above post - his post read to me like he's trying to appear townie while really contributing nothing. suspicion level = high 4. killerdog + Show Spoiler + he wrote a lot, none of which stood out to me save for a random post addressing "loaded questions". that seemed pointless and like a misplaced effort to seem helpful. be succinct and articulate? no shit.  5. myRZeth + Show Spoiler + there's literally nothing on this guy 6. Bereft + Show Spoiler + innocent! awesome pro-townie 7. Pharcyd3 + Show Spoiler + nothing on this guy either, his 1st post was a joke and not even worth addressing without the context of other posts 8. HolyFlare + Show Spoiler + originally i couldn't tell if he was scum trying to derail the conversation with discussion about playing methods, but i think as the game has progressed i'm starting to lean towards town. i think the main thing winning me over is the air of confidence his posts exude that he can and WILL catch scum. this could be a pretty bold strategy (esp in a newbie game), but with that kind of air, i expect results and good analysis from him. if he starts spouting off insubstantial shit i'd have to rethink my stance. 9. Lord Velocity + Show Spoiler + my posts above should be pretty clear ... i can't decide how much benefit of the doubt i'm willing to give you at this point 10. Chairman Ray + Show Spoiler + too many troll posts, don't have a read on him right now to be honest 11. LoneMeow + Show Spoiler + i'd really like to hear from lonemeow. so far, his only posts have been to ask other players what their opinions are. i can't tell if he's trying to steer conversation away from himself towards other players or if he's doing all of his analysis in his head only because it fucking sucks to type with 1 hand  . funnily enough, his longest post in this thread is his description of his accident. (get well soon!) 12. Blurry + Show Spoiler + i liked his effort to generate interesting topics of conversation via posting scum / townie reads. that lessens my suspicions of him, but since then he's all but disappeared On September 05 2013 13:35 killerdog wrote: Good morning again, three hours sleep best sleep :D (8 am lectures should die in a fire) First off, I'd like to address why I jumped so hard on the edit. LV had a rather shaky start, and responded rather badly to the pressure Umasi put on him at the very beginning. He had just started making a more actual posts but I still didn't really have any read on him. When I saw that he had made a post then edited it, I figured I had main options. 1, I tell chairman ray to chill out, that it was not something worth starting a lynch train on, and maybe put a bit of pressure on ray or something. 2, I go on him full force and see what happens. There were two main reasons I went with the second option. Firstly, he's already proven to be weak to pressure, and I was curious to see how he'd respond the second time. A few of the more "scummy" elements of his first defence had been pointed out to him, and if he'd replied either really quickly (making the "back in a few hours" thing very sketchy) or if he'd replied with a long, well worded, well thought out argument, I would have been pretty suspicious of him because it would have been such a dramatic change from the last time. Secondly, There was always the chance that someone who had been relatively quiet/noncommital had jumped onto the vote train behind me, which would have given a lot of information depending on who they were. His defence felt very natural, It was all one giant paragraph, lots of run on sentences, it just didn't feel like something which had been proofread very much or anything like that, whereas I feel a mafia would likely have put a lot of time/thought into formulating that defence if they actually felt under real pressure. Furthermore, his first two posts in the thread, (before game started): I felt that these two things made him having just not read the rules properly more plausible, having a good handle on the how mafia works might lead to just skimming the rules rather then carefully reading them, whereas a total beginner or someone who's played forum mafia before would probably not make that mistake. Thats why I pressured really hard for a few posts then backed off again. I was surprised that he mentioned finding me suspicious as a result, given that he'd named me as town just a few posts above, but I don't see why a mafia would do that, it seemed more like sloppy play due to stress then being a particularly town or mafia move. @Bereft, the reason I said it felt like you were placated was because you were going on him quite hard, then he said that his style was to highlight posts you question and ask for explanations, and you go And then vanish. It just felt a bit like either you felt like you'd "done your bit" or his answer fully satisfied you, because talking about the other game just felt a bit like you were looking for a way to end the conversation, rather then agreeing or disagreeing with him. I can see how that doesn't contradict your reasoning for posting it the way you did though. Also, the focus shifted off LV after the first pressure thing, my feeling of the general consensus at the time was that he had screwed up, but we were willing to (at least for now) attribute that to inexperience, and he made a few posts giving his views on things. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=426146¤tpage=14#268 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=426146¤tpage=14#274 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=426146¤tpage=15#281 Nothing groundbreaking, but more then quite a few other people had done at that point. The votes to lynch were more reactions to the edited post, (as was umasi saying "don't vote vel"). I can see how these changes in mood can be hard to pick up on if you read the whole thread at once though. Also a point which i think is worth raising now. Given that we have to have voted for someone/sleep with 18 hours, and there is still a player who hasn't posted, (myrzeth,) If we lynch someone, say pharcyd3, and then myrzeth gets modkilled, what effect does that have on the game, and if we have a confirmed mod kill would it be better to sleep? I'm in a hurry to get to class so I don't have time to think about it properly right now, but I think we need to have a plan in place to account for the chance of there being a mod kill on myrzeth. Mod question, If myrzeth doesn't show up by midnight CET, does he just die, or does a replacement get put in. Browsing the thread, the only two replacements i noticed were koshi and someone else, but you said koshi had way too many games for a newbie mafia, and the other guy mentioned only doing it if apeture mafia didn't start, which it has. basically, he states that CLEARLY killerdog must be town because he's not afraid to give up his opinions on all the players. killerdog's post was a half hour after i had done a full breakdown on all my reads. does lord velocity acknowledge my list at all? am i CLEARLY town as well for providing all my reads? nope. so far, LV has shown himself to be a rookie mafia player, and this post is in line with his previous behavior -- a very transparent attempt to distance himself from his team mate. what i like is that several hours later he tries to back pedal from this: On September 05 2013 09:01 Lord Velocity wrote: I'm terribly sorry if it was suspicious and I myself have become suspicious of Killer and Chairman in the process. which to me really comes off as someone who has been told from his scummy partner to change his tune and be less obvious. from killerdog's side i also see evidence of feigned suspicion on his team mate. he votes for lordvelocity because of the edit, but then later takes it off with the explanation "His defence felt very natural, It was all one giant paragraph, lots of run on sentences, it just didn't feel like something which had been proofread very much or anything like that, whereas I feel a mafia would likely have put a lot of time/thought into formulating that defence if they actually felt under real pressure." hahaha what? ALL of lordvelocity's posts have been one giant paragraph with lots of run on sentences. that proves nothing. from dismissing suspicion of LV because of a supposedly good defense by LV (show me please?) all of a sudden LV becomes a non n1 lynch candidate and he promptly jumps on the myRZeth followed by the Chairman Ray bandwagon. cutting this off a bit abruptly because it's pretty late -- hope you guys will use this post as food for thought and go back and reread both of these posters' content to see if you think my points have validity. looking forward to the weekend when i can reread the thread and post a bit more analysis. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On September 06 2013 13:29 Holyflare wrote: You should have posted all of that at the end of the night... I know I know, but there's slim to no chance I'll be around to post anything lengthy right before the night post comes out. so would rather say it now than not at all... | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
@HolyFlare FINALLY someone else sees it. posting from my phone right now, will be around to post if not tonight then definitely tomorrow. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On September 07 2013 19:00 Holyflare wrote: This looked scummy as fuck - if he was town, why would he vote another town to save himself, it didn't make sense. in response to this, i think it's pretty obvious to me why he would rather save himself than the guy who's been useless as fk this entire game and said like 2 sentence max... | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On September 08 2013 02:55 infii wrote: Oh and another thing: I have been roleblocked last night. I guess that makes me a more likely target for the next nk. HolyFlare, surprised you didn't comment on this. this is basically a blue claim, no? unless regardless of your role you always get a notification. mods, do you get a role block notification regardless of your role or only when your action has been successfully role blocked? | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
umasi how does this change your vote? do you believe it? if no one else counterclaims that they got roleblocked, it seems to me that either: (a) infii is 100% town and we have a severine in our midst (b) infii is on the mafia team and knows the roleblock is a safe claim to make (i.e. there's no severine in this game) | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On September 06 2013 06:07 killerdog wrote: Whats your response to my points in favour of not voting for him? my bad, busy week so missed this earlier. there's a decent possibility that he's an inexperienced town -- i'll give you that. that being said, your argument to keep him alive because (a) he's leaving a huge bread crumb trail but (b) we wouldn't learn anything if he flipped today are contradictory. should he have flipped red, think we would already have lots to analyze. what i'd like to know is why you switched your vote to chairman ray at the last minute. looking at your post history, you say the following: Personally I'm leaning towards lynching myrzeth, because from the way he responded to people challenging his silence, and the fact he still hasn't come in with a post bigger then a one liner, means I don't think he's going to suddenly be super contributive tomorrow. I'd rather not have to spend half a day arguing with someone about play styles again, or even worse have him just dissappear and then being in a situation day 2 where there might be a strong mafia read we want to lynch, but having to choose between lynching the afk lurker or the mafia read. And if he turns out to be mafia thats just a perk. On September 06 2013 05:19 killerdog wrote: That post was a bit longer then i meant it to get, but basically I see our choice right now as being, 1. lynch myrzeth for shitty town play (and if we get lucky and hit a mafia, yay win) 2. lynch someone as a scum read, the a few people are pushing for LV in particular. I also think chairman ray has been a bit suspicious compared to other people, but I've seen a few people put him down as one of their town reads so thats moved him (temporarily) down on my scum list. 3. lynch someone else for shitty town play, but I don't see anyone else as anywhere near as potentially useless at myrzeth seems to be looking. I hope that makes sense. Anyway, as my vote on myrzeth suggests, he's my current preferred target, just because I don't see him being anything other then a liability if left alive, but I'm open to suggestions. then all of a sudden with zero explanation: On September 06 2013 06:33 killerdog wrote: I really don't like letting myr live til day 2, but hopefully he'll start playing the game tomorrow. We wont lose from a second mislynch (if ray is town) so I guess it's not the end of the world if we have to kill myr off tomorrow for still being afk. ##vote chairman ray i agree you've gone out of your way to explain why you don't think LV is a good day 1 lynch candidate. but what's your explanation for suddenly switching to ray with zero explanation when you were so adamant that myrzeth was the best choice before? myrzeth may have been lynched had you kept your vote on him. i'd like to hear about your change of heart. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
(jk) | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
reasons include: a. he sux bawls b. it's pretty clear - he's not going to change his mind about lurking anytime soon c. i think there's definitely 1 scum in the bunch that voted for ray. the sudden piling of votes onto ray was weird. i'm wondering if the shift of votes had anything to do with myrzeth being mafia and his mafia buddies freaking out with him about to get lynched in any case i would like to hear from killerdog why he switched his vote as well as from the town why another player may be a better candidate for lynch today. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On September 08 2013 13:11 Holyflare wrote: well I find it hard to believe that all 3 scum are on the ray bandwagon, pharcy is modkill, velocity is gonna get replaced, bereft and heavenz i don't think are scummy so that only really leaves infii i'm not saying i think all 3 are on the ray bandwagon -- they would just have needed 1 to tip the scale. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On September 08 2013 11:51 Holyflare wrote: i feel like it's a myrz pharcy3d - insert random player here scum team trololol hahaha yeah i'm starting to think 1 of the inactives is definitely scum, if not both. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Koshi | ||
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