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On October 01 2013 13:21 Mocsta wrote:
That's a smooth line.
I thought kita points were far from general and pertained directly to motive and mindset.
I look forward to your retort to the case.
They were far from specific, hence they were general.
The case in question.
On October 01 2013 10:49 kitaman27 wrote:The case against FirmTofu![[image loading]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51A%2BVhf1zzL._SL500_AA300_.jpg) As I mentioned earlier, WaveofShadow, Zaragon, Umasi, and Mattchew all mentioned FT as one of their mafia suspects before their deaths. All three players that died last night wanted to kill him. These kills were strange enough that I think it is likely that they were picked out for their reads. On day one, FT is clearly around and reading the thread at the start of the game, yet he fails to provide a lynch candidate. He appears to be afk towards the end of the day and never votes, so I'll chalk this up as a null tell. Show nested quote +On September 23 2013 19:23 FirmTofu wrote:
Finally got some decent reads. :D
Firstly, I want to address the vigi situation.
As a vigilante you want to shoot the people who are currently useless and are unlikely to become useful in the future. I'll go through a few people and address the value of shooting them.
We have recent replacement inactives in Malongo, Deconduo, and Blazinghand. These guys deserve some time to catch up to the thread. Their deaths would not serve a higher purpose in the short-term.
Then we have people like VayneAuthority, kush, and VE. These are people that are capable of strong town games, but are currently either just trolling or posting with a subdued interest. I would say that this group of people becomes more easy to read as the game progresses, hence they aren't the best vig shots.
Tier 3 are people who are sitting in the semi-lurker category, but have some posts of substance. I would include Pandain, JAT, Mr.CC, Zaragon, Sentinel, Umasi, Stutters, and a few others I can't remember in this grouping. I believe that this group probably holds the majority of the scumteam. These are people that want to stay just above lurker territory so as to avoid suspicion. I think most of these guys would be good vig shots as long as some discretion is used.
Finally you have the completely useless. These are people that aren't trying to get better and aren't going to play better when asked. They are either hardcore lurking or posting little to no substance. Examples include Risen, Coag, and Lonemeow. Anyone who is in this category is a decent shot from a vig perspective, but is less likely to be scum than the previous category I mentioned. Once night two starts, he comes out with the trademark "large post that says absolutely nothing". Apparently addressing the vig situation really means "I'm going to list 10 different players you could consider shooting based on activity". It really shouldn't taken this much time for him to essentially tell us that he is fine with a third of the game getting shot. He later posts his read on Zaragon and tells the vig to shoot him. If this was his scum read, then why did he just spend the last fifteen minutes with his list post? Throughout the game, he produces several half-hearted cases against players, but he never actually goes after his targets. There is a limited amount of interaction with the players he suspects. A lot of the time, he asks others to ask him questions, rather than contribution on topics that he finds important on his own. Show nested quote +On September 24 2013 08:28 FirmTofu wrote:
Cephiro looks like me in Desert with less trolling. He's an excellent vig shot but a mediocre lynch. He sounds like he's having trouble catching up to the thread, an issue I can relate to. The rest of his filter is pretty crappy, but I don't think it makes him scum necessarily. This post is a really generic soft defend. He doesn't want to commit to a town read on Ceph, so he states that he is fine with a vig shot, yet wouldn't lynch him. This allows him to vote elsewhere later on in the cycle. Show nested quote +On September 26 2013 13:48 FirmTofu wrote:
I'm pretty disappointed that I couldn't make the deadline today. You guys went full retard. Never go full retard.
I just skimmed the thread on my phone so I'm gonna do a full read through and do some analysis. This is the scummiest post in his filter. I'm lost count of the number of times a scum player shows up after the lynch only to yell at town for something they showed no interest in preventing. He criticizes town for the LoneMeow lynch. The problem? He hasn't defended LoneMeow all game. He voted Umasi, a player who had no chance of getting lynched and essentially went afk again when the lynch was being decided. I gave him a pass for doing it on day one, but this is now two days in a row where he has displayed his apathy for the lynch. When he performs his post lynch analysis, he still never acknowledges that cephiro is scum. So if he is frustrated about town going "full retard", how could he think it was a terrible lynch if the alternative wasn't incredibly scummy in his opinion? Show nested quote +On September 27 2013 14:02 FirmTofu wrote:
Also, I think Cephiro is a better lynch than Mocsta. I still don't see the scum motivation in what Mocsta did and Cephiro has been altogether useless this entire game. On day three, he votes geript, but makes this post about Cephiro. Who exactly is he trying to convince? The vote is clearly going to be a blow out. Despite not being able to see scum motivation from Mocsta, he has a revelation post flip and notices the connection. Is this honestly something that he wouldn't consider beforehand? There is a pretty apologetic theme from most of his posts and there are several points where he seems more interested in defending himself or making himself look good with unnaturally worded posts, rather than pushing his prefered mafia lynch. I'm not sure if there is anyone in this game that actually has a town read on FT, which generally points to mafia. ##Vote: FirmTofu
"trademark post that says nothing" is a generalization. Kita thinks this is scummy because he's seen scum play this way in the past.
"This post is a generic soft-defend" is a generalization. Kita thinks this is scummy because he's seen scum soft-defend each other in the past.
"I'm lost count of the number of times a scum player shows up after the lynch only to yell at town for something they showed no interest in preventing" is a generalization. Kita thinks this is scummy because he's seen scum showing up after lynch to yell at town.
"There is a pretty apologetic theme from most of his posts and there are several points where he seems more interested in defending himself or making himself look good with unnaturally worded posts, rather than pushing his prefered mafia lynch" is a generalization. Kita thinks this is scummy because people who apologize a lot generally flip mafia in his past experience.
"I'm not sure if there is anyone in this game that actually has a town read on FT, which generally points to mafia." is a generalization. Kita thinks this is scummy because he's seen people flip scum when no one has a town read on them.
Basically, I can't "defend" myself from this case because it relies on generalizations about how scum usually play. I'm sure scum do this a lot, and Kita would be right a large majority of the time if he applies this logic to all of his games. However, these heuristics simply do not hold true for me. Kita has never played with me and does not know that I play this way as town and scum.
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Interesting
I'm going to have to give this some thought.
Ft
Please comment in cc cop claim
And
Risen
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And ft
In your opinion. Is kitamin misguided town using heuristics or scum looking to mislynch off "generalities"
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On October 01 2013 13:58 Mocsta wrote:
And ft
In your opinion. Is kitamin misguided town using heuristics or scum looking to mislynch off "generalities"
I wouldn't even say misguided. These heuristics would work in a majority of cases. They just don't happen to work for me. I would say he is town, yes.
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On October 01 2013 13:45 Mocsta wrote:
Interesting
I'm going to have to give this some thought.
Ft
Please comment in cc cop claim
And
Risen
Gotta read a bit, but I will give thoughts soon.
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FirmTofu
(1)
On September 30 2013 16:22 FirmTofu wrote:
This thread is such a mess. I'm glad Cephiro flipped scum. It provides the Mocsta motivation for vote switching last minute as scum.
##vote: Mocsta
Next post will have thoughts incoming.
(2)
On October 01 2013 13:12 FirmTofu wrote:
##unvote
What changed?
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Wow I just spent an hour with my spreadsheet staring at the data. All I learned is that colors are pretty and that they make me sleepy. Not doing the actual research because I'm going to bed but some angles that arise from what I'm seeing.
People who aren't really utilizing their vote powers [aka voting the minimum, not using their "powers"]:
- Stutters (3 votes over 3 days)
- S&B (3 votes over 3 days but did not vote on day 3)
- iamperfection (2 votes over 3 days, day 1 had no vote before replacing in)
If any of the above demonstrate a lot of uncertainty about where their vote is placed, that might be cause for concern. Uncertainty but not moving their vote and shit reasons for staying = dig deeper.
People with better-than-good voting records [arguably could be too perfect]:
- Risen votes: 1: vayne cephiro | 2: firmtofu | 3: Cephiro
- JAT: 1: firmtofu mattchew | 2: cephiro | 3: cephiro
Paying a ton of attention or working with inside knowledge. Did they campaign for their lynches of choice or did they simply vote? Was their reasoning sound? "Too perfect" is how I used VCA to catch out geript after I had died in LXI. It's not out of the question. Firm flipping red will make these even more "perfect".
Willy-nilly voters [More than half of their votes on confirmed town]:
- FirmTofu
- Mr. Cheesecake
- Mocsta
- Pandain
Careless of image, or carefully crafting one?
+ Show Spoiler [objective voting rated ascending] +
10: FirmTofu -1.00
13: Mr. Cheesecake -0.57
30: Mocsta -0.57
11: Pandain -0.56
16: Stutters695 -0.33
06: kushm4sta Kitaman27 -0.25
08: ObviousOne -0.20
19: [UoN]Sentinel -0.14
02: raynpelikoneet -0.10
01: DarthPunk strongandbig 0.00
07: Koshi 0.00
14: Xzavier Decondou 0.00
15: Coagulation 0.00
17: Onegu iamperfection 0.00
23: Risen 0.25
29: justanothertownie 0.25
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Firm are you still reading?
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On October 01 2013 16:19 Pandain wrote:
Firm are you still reading?
Yes, what's up?
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Are you going to respond to Mocsta?
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On October 01 2013 14:52 Mocsta wrote:FirmTofu(1) Show nested quote +On September 30 2013 16:22 FirmTofu wrote:
This thread is such a mess. I'm glad Cephiro flipped scum. It provides the Mocsta motivation for vote switching last minute as scum.
##vote: Mocsta
Next post will have thoughts incoming. (2) What changed?
People posted. I have to catch up before voting. It's kind of a rule I have.
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You have any questions for me Pandain?
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OO feels like misguided town right now. The guy thinks that people who vote incorrectly on lynches are automatically scum. Sorry to disappoint, OO, but that's not how mafia works. In my experience, mafia are correct more often than not when a townie is about to be lynched.
Yes, I was wrong on Umasi and geript. However, both of these players were extremely scummy. You should read my posts and see if you can follow my thought process on these two players. If it makes sense to you, don't vote me. If it doesn't make sense, then vote me. That's how you should play. Voting patterns aren't going to figure out the game. You need context.
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Mr.CC's cop claim is believable. Not because it makes sense, but because it would be a terrible play as scum. Let's say Mr.CC got VE lynched and he's scum.
What would he do then? The entire town would just lynch him the following day and we all know that a 1town for 1 mafia trade is terrible for mafia.
The cop claim makes no sense from a mafia perspective. CC has to be town.
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Okay, so Mocsta's play is still an unreadable train wreck. He still looks really bad after Cephiro's mafia flip, so I'd still be willing to vote him but I still have some reservations.
Right now, I'd rather kill deconduo. My case on him is a few posts back. His behavior during the voting time was extremely sketchy. Better to kill him now than later considering he's not going to make himself useful anytime soon. I definitely don't want him around during LYLO.
##vote: deconduo
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This thread is so dead...
Good night, yo.
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Stream of consciousness: FirmTofu
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=423071&user=FirmTofu&view=all
Stream of Consciousness: FirmTofu
+ Show Spoiler +- opener Opener. Aside from the trolling start some considered "bluehunting"; no one in the thread thought Geript looked better than DP - except FirmTofu. Whilst the observation does read to me like something town *COULD* say, its interesting noting the deduction given that Geript flipped town. The thing is, as scum, why enter the limelight and polarise against thread sentiment *IF* you know Geript is town? Further, is basis for commenting on DP is incorrect (and was debated in the thread). I am quite confused whether this is intentional dumb; or unintentional. Null
- post I dont like this post. I can imagine myself writing this as scum. Its throwing shit on someone, but not backing it up with a quote. Then it finishes off with a non-relevant reinforcement. If its a stream (as he suggests) I find it more palatable. Will give benefit of the doubt, and say null.
- post Null post even though he is right regarding me.
- post This is a fair comment. DP was whinier than usual. Its still null; hesjust posting thoughts, need to await a conclusion.
- post I dont like this. He says his stream is meta and hence weak. However, the way he wrote the post seemed more structured and calculated (ironically what he was accusing DP of doing). Essentially, I find that this comment is not congruent with his approach prior (that I gave benefit of the doubt to). Leaning scum.
- post Odd call out on OO. This reads like flinging shit; if its a bookmark thought, at least give context to what is the oddity. Leaning scum.
- DP back/forth He is clearly trolling DP. Hes actually writing in a condescending method that should incite a deeper reaction. I *could* see an intelligent town doing this to provoke their scum read.
- post I find this post odd. Everything he is saying is correct, and partially why I thought DP was town.. but, its almost the same as talking about policy. Again, no quotes, talking in generics. I'm not a fan of the sudden drop in pressure, once DP snaps back and then there is the inconsistency of "DP defense" makes him scum, then town.
If you want to do the stream; then containerise all the thoughts in one concise post. Instead we get this injection of premature thought into the thread and is easy to backpedal on (because you can say.. ohh, later on you did this, so my read has now changed). The more I think about it, the more his method of streaming is pro-scum. With my method, the thoughts are all in one place, and I have to stand by my read. Firm scum read now.
- post I dont like this post one bit when i first read it live; and I still don't like it. Its the whole "you cna see which path I chose to take".. why are you not answering your own question? its manipulation to the n-th degree, to allow others biases to kick in and fill in the gap.
- post Smooth response/twist. I did say befure, i could see an intelligent town doing this; but i don't rate firmtofu up there in that group.
This reads to me as a teacher who got caught making a fuck-up, and then says "well i did it intentionally to see who was picking up on it".
- post more shit I hate, as hes not doing any work himself. Clearly trying to play a manipulation focussed game. I suppose it is null though.
- post From the post above, it is now clear that FirmTofu wanted to target VE next. With a town VE flip, this post looks pretty bad in context.
You have the town read on Geript, when no one else saw it.
You have the inconsistencies/shit-flinging with DP
You have him now trying to twist a scum read onto VE; which has no basis on his interactions with GERIPT (his original town read from this group of three)
- some banter, and then we get to this post. post which ties exactly into why I said before that Firms style of streaming is pro-scum. He has the optino to backpedal any read he wants.
- More promises to deliver thoughts, a la Cephiro. I guess the worst is that he made sure he was there for deadline, but not beforehand. post which suggests that he had no real interest in driving a lynch. Null i guess,
- post This is such a bizarre answer. Dont vig DP, cos he may be medic'd.
- Some really odd discussion about the vig targets. Odd in that I know how I felt about it at the time, and these thoughts are not aligned with FirmTofu.
post In the end, its all policy talk; where is the discussion about who is scummy for driving a mislynch on Chairman etc? I find it odd this is missing from his filter.
- post Then we get confirmation hes not "caught" up, which is scummy by this point in the game. Why? Because hes not finished reading and is commenting on non-scum finding issues to feign contribution.
As town replacing into a game, I have often begun commenting on stuff before finish reading the game, but am trying to scum hunt. This is non-existent in FT filter.
We get a "trap" on DP; followed by zero effort to drive a lynch; followed by policy talk on vig targets.
- post such odd play.Pointing out a CC vig claim? Like its confirmed now this guy is bluehunting. I dunno what to make of this.
- post Another odd post. NO FUCKING QUOTES FOR CONTEXT. Like, FirmTofu is starting to be too perfect. Right on Geript when all were against him. Right now on VE, when ppl were against him. Right on DP for trivial reasons. Had the correct take on my position when commenting about not reading DP/Geript fight. Too perfect with no justification is pretty scummy; or pretty lucky. Lets keep going and see hwo perfect the scum reads are.
- vig post A lot of this post is commmon sense, so is totally not alignment indicative.
In the semi-lurking group he recommending to shoot, thread sentiment would have led to Sentinel as well. So even though suspect ppl like stutters are in the group; its unlikely that danger is imminent.
Its interesting that iamperfection/Onegu is not listed as a replacement (unlike the others).
- post Reads the thread and has ONE scum read. And this is precisely why I can't say that FT is genuine for trying to "trap" DP. You would expect a lot more. Now he has been perfectly right about Geript, DP, me, VE; but now gets it all wrong with a scum read on town flipped zaragon.
His crux is 'apathy" or essentially lack of activity ==> Easy pickings scum target.
here is the clincher.
FirmTofu attacks zaragon for leaving an out on VE due to "If geript adn DP are both town (which isn't at all a given)......
This is exactly the mindset of town, BE SUSPICIOUS.
Yet, FT tries to construe this as scummy by leaving an out. Only scum could known that this original statement is CORRECT, thus, when the option to backout is there, its easy for a scum to pounce; as they have the hindsight/knowledge. No way, town would call out a statement like that.
His justification is just wrong, town and scum use fallbacks always. Town because they ahve to take leaps of faith; scum to give options.
- post subtle buddying to marv.
- post Why has his steram just focused on DP? now hes stopped, and says he is unsure about rayn. Why not probe him and set trapz like DP. This is quite concerning; and is not a congruent stance with how he approached others. It is certianly not clear whether FT is protecting Rayn; or is setting up Rayn.. but it is clear that such a half-arsed response can only come from scum. Ironically this is exactly the type of fallback that makes FT scum, that he accused zaragon of employing.
- post its ironic reading this because its all the same generalities that apparently Kita used in his case agianst FT. and now FT is using that generality as a point for a case.
- post Perfect post by Geript. FirmTofu response makes no sense. How could have have a town read on Geript without reading the shitfest in detail? THat was all of Geripts contributions.
Scumslip hook, line and sinker. This post by itself.
- post more stirring the pot on a "town read". Interesting, as it was totally not requied.
- post tries to bullshit about Geript; but fact is, in order to give a town read on Geript you had to read the exchange, which was filled with the vig claims several times... Caught
- post This is a "feel" scum slip.
"If I was town", is just not a statement a town player would make. Not in this order of phrasing.
Town players will go along and say somethign like "OK, lets pretend Im town... what now" - its blunt, and succinct.
FT has to warm and say "How exactly would this help you? If i was town, who would be most suspicious"
Its just very odd phrasing the "if i was town"
- post OMGUS on Koshi, and now is flipping his read on Geript. The reasoning for recanting the reads doesn't even make sense, based on the original foundation of the town read. He also doesn't comment about how this affects the relationship of his previous reads (which were founded on a town Geript read). Smells like bullshit
- post This is a bookmark post.
Its a very uncomfortable post from FirmTofu, its unclear whether hes crumbling to pressure (unlikely) OR talking to a scum buddy. But this post specifically shares no phrasing/tone consistent with his previous posts to people like marv/DP etc.
- post again, easy read, no justification on Cephiro. I wouldnt have a problem if he called it a lurker lynch. Its the point that he said the filter was crappy, but then doesnt state why it doesnt make him scum.
THATS the problem.
- post martrying.. And more overcomepnsation "i'll be completely open and honest about everything" is scum thing to say, its actually a tell that everything before hand was on reservation and may have been dishonest.
- post Builds a case on Sentinel; but doesnt vote him lol... all his caes are based on nitpicking, and feel more substantiated because they include quotes where the focus is oneline, rather than reasoning to indicate why its scummy. Its also a thread sentiment read. Yuck
- post i dont find his substantiation of bluelightz applicable to thisg ame. Hes not really attacking anyone.
- post crazy post, probably honest too LOl.
- post cant put my finger on it, but when talking to pandain again. The tone feels different. Less verbose I suppose is the best way to summarise it.
- post Then OMGUS zaragon all over again. again, nitpicking; and doesnt express why its scum motive play vs bad play.
- post dodges teh case in a similar manner to kitamin, as in, delves into theory craft on how to play. Yeah, i dont like this at all
- post another case on a flipped town. Like, hes not scum for being wrong.. its that he was perfect early game; and now is always wrong with his cases and they are all nitpicking bad play. The difference with someone like me that has been wrong is that, I have put perssure and opinion on everyone; whereas firmtofu has pick/chosen when to post and who to focus on. All his cases are for very poor reasoning. Scum scum scum.
- post Gives JAT a free town read. hmmm, I have a town read on him too, so not sure what this could mean. ---> Bookmark
- post alignment null to ask to be filtered. Almost equivalent ot a martyr, and somethign i would definitely do as scum. Especially if i knew i had a hard to interpret filter.
- post again picking on apathy. His scum reads are all lurkers. Lol... lynch with fire !
- post This is a good question from rayn. Substantiation the post that made you change your read on VE. FT dodges it. Need to see how Rayn responded to this, but from a glance this makes me feel better about Rayn (i.e. previously FT was setting him up)
- post Now FT is trying to get Marv to look into Rayn, again, suggests that rayn may be town. --> Bookmark
- post Yeap, this is precisely the bullshit i was talking about with ft streams. Now hes trying to backpedal, based on, i gave a premature read. So fucking scummy.
- post interesting, FT satisfies Rayn requset for info. Not a big tell, but potentially indicative of not wanting to infuriate rayn. Could be a weak town tell.
- post hedging bets on mattchew train. Interesting, and again, no context. Just posts that will make him look good if mattchew flips.
- post Town read on mattchew is too convenient, and is a overcompensated approach taken by others that called him town, post-defense. Hes usuing knowledge that marv is town as a reason to call mattchew town. which reeks of scum.
- post & post are funny because he never suggests who those best chance of flipping scum should be, then belittles town for their choices.
I'm also concerned that he gives me an instant town-read, when quite a few ppl are pissed with me and auto-assume i am scum. Hes read me town for the right reasons, but why is he the only one to read the sitation correctly when town have done stupid things (me with the fake claim, and geript early game).
- post Considering Geript and Umasi are town; i think its safe to assume rayn is town. Also the way those two were talking to each other prior, makes me think rayn and FT are not of teh same alignment. Again, the read on rayn is based on apathy... his favourite indicator, and all have been town.
- post Getting bored of his filter now, I think he is scum. Look at how he handles Cephiro. cEPHIRO is useless, so lets lynch Geript/Umasi or rayn.
- post Interesting interaction with Iamp. its a fair question, and there does not appear to be any follow up beyond this. need to flip to better understand this.
- post Now we get a full 180'; before he said scum would never do what i did, and now out of no where he votes me. Yep, scum.
- defense of kita is terrible, and does not address the points. It worse that he tries to sell the case as generic in a method to not retort.
Kitas case aligns a fair bit with my stream; obviously a lot more concise., It is far from generic.
FirmTofu *is* scum.
Without doubt, and is my preference for this lynch.
His filter is 100% accurate when discussing town in compromised situations ( Geript early game, VE early game, Mocsta mid game) and yet most of his scum reads have been proven wrong (Geript, Umasi, Zaragon). Further, all his cases have a common underlying theme. They are based on apathy. Which is a fancy word for lurker lynching.
He nitpicks lines in a quote, and uses that to substantiate his cases to feel liek they are more than their worth. His cases actually don't delve into scum motivation, but rather attack poor play.
For someone who apparently tried to "trap" DP by commenting falsely intentionally; you do expect more from his cases.
Then you have issues such as
(1) His instant knowledge I was town post medic-claim as scum would never do that; yet later votes me for no founded reason.
(2) His inconsistency that DP was scum for being defensive; and then called him town for being defensive (apparently a trap)
(3) Barely comments on Cephiro, and has wasted votes throughout the thread. & like Cephiro, keeps promising to deliver content, but then takes forever to produce it (if he does)
(4) But the biggest issue is how he handled the Geript town/vig situation.
He called Geript town for the DP exchange, yet never noticed Geript kept claiming vig.
Then FirmTofu says that he skimmed the exchange.. But if he did, there is no tangible reason he could have got a town read off Geript. Massive scum slip; and Geript called him out on it prior (but his town cred was so low, it was hard to make sense of the situation).
FirmTofu is certainly scum.
Once he is flipped, we can make better sense of his interactions with Pandain, which do not read natural/congruent to all his other thread interactions.
Zaragon
JustAnotherTownie
Stutters695
Mr.Cheesecake
IAmPerfection
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EPT
