EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLIII
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On June 24 2013 10:08 FirmTofu wrote: I would like to establish my innocence at this point, so as to dispel any thoughts about my future alignment. I have never killed or assisted in killing ANYONE in my entire life. Thus, it would be presumptuous to accuse me of being a murderer or an accomplice to murder. Thank you for reading. I can confirm this. I have been tracking FirmTofu for the last 3 years and have never seen them kill anyone. | ||
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On June 24 2013 11:25 Chromatically wrote: + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 11:17 Spicydinosaur wrote: Not taking it super seriously, just busting you back. I posted in the thread then went back to reddit. Checked the thread again after a few minutes. I'll be around tonight and early tomorrow morning. And hey Xzavier. Hmm. In both other newbie games, you started out with a policy post about lurkers. Any particular reason why you changed for this game? I noticed that too. This is Spicy's first post in his previous game, where he was town: On June 06 2013 10:47 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone, I'll get the ball rolling. One of the most important things I've learned about day 1 is to make sure that town is active and posting USEFUL information and not just fluff. Lurkers do nothing to help town and are scummy. As such, I will and I encourage others, to pressure lurkers to post. That is quite a lot more content than his first post in this thread: On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone | ||
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On June 24 2013 11:47 Chromatically wrote: You don't buy his explanation? I am reading through the obs for that game now. I am very new to Mafia and used the recent Roulette game as my introduction to forum mafia, so I did not follow the previous newbie games. I will post again when I have spent more time reading that obs. | ||
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On June 24 2013 11:55 Chromatically wrote: Or a framer/scum tracker not carrying the hit can claim NN if they see that no one else has done so, and become "confirmed town". HS, who's scum? That would be a risky claim though, as if we do end up lynching town I would rather lynch NN than any other town member. This is also why I do not think that NN should claim though. | ||
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On June 24 2013 12:01 FirmTofu wrote: As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game. But on day one, is that not all we have to go off of? | ||
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On June 24 2013 11:53 Spicydinosaur wrote: + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 11:43 hzflank wrote: I noticed that too. This is Spicy's first post in his previous game, where he was town: That is quite a lot more content than his first post in this thread: Sheeping off of others opinions already? Also heres the QT chat i was referring too. Though i dont know how to post to a specific QT box Heres the QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/YXgCU77iVMsa and its posts: 11, 16, 21. Spicydinosaur http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18810769 + Show Spoiler + Fluffity fluff fluff fluff, I will, Fluffity fluff. vote spicy as not the towniest MOFU in thread. umasi xzav and yvanna are town random guy that thinks hes better than he is and fferyl are probably town but not that much i'd lynch firere and spicy for now not sure about the third spicy should be killed with fire Furthermore you should look back at my other 2 games if you want to see what my openings were. They too were different. Fair enough. To be honest I am surprised that you got those negative comments for your first post in that thread, but then what do I know? I do not think that talk of sheeping (I had already started my post when he posted his) on day one is useful, but I do believe you as to why your first post was just the two words. | ||
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On June 24 2013 12:11 geript wrote: you should be able to handle this by going into your tl profile and managing your timezone from there. That's how I did it but it was a while back Nope, the posts still have Korean time stamps. It doesn't matter, I will just have to keep adding 13 hours. If I cannot manage that then I am not smart enough to play this game anyway  | ||
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On June 24 2013 13:00 Chromatically wrote: hz, do you have any scumreads? At the moment I am looking at FirmTofu. His chain of attack and defense looks like: Attack Chromatically Attack Xzavier Attack Hurricane Attack Spicy Defend Hurricane Defend Xzavier Attack Spicy For some reason the defenses seem a little out of place to me, especially the defense on Xzavier. On the other hand I believe Hurricane to be town as if he were scum then he is very brave to make the first post that he did. I am also very aware that I made an slightly extended attack on Spicy, who now seems to be FirmTofu's main target. I am wondering if he thinks Spicy is a good lynch target because he can count on my vote. He has also said twice that we should only use information from this game and not previous games. I think town should have access to as much information as possible in order to lynch scum. Therefore to me, FirmTofu is currently the scummiest player. | ||
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On June 24 2013 13:34 FirmTofu wrote: You are taking an extremely simplified approach to analyze my actions. I am not "attacking" or "defending" anyone. I am stating my opinions on how various people are behaving. If you can't distinguish between the two, we have a serious problem here. You can't say that my "defenses" are out of place without even looking at the context of the situation. Read my quote, see if it makes sense to you, and form an opinion based on that. Furthermore, this post is as scummy as scummy gets. You state that you can side with me as I pursue a lynch on Spicy(see 1), but you also consider me to be the scummiest player(see 2). How are these two chain of thoughts compatible? Maybe you prefer the term Poking to Attacking, it makes no difference to me as I am an RTS player by nature and so I attack for information. I read your filter several times, so it is not a case of me being lazy with my reading. I did not say that you can count on my vote on Spicy. I will rephrase what I said to make it less ambiguous: I am wondering if Firm thinks that he can count on my vote on Spicy, and therefore thinks that Spicy is a good lynch target. | ||
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On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: You wound me. Regarding claims I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum. Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.) Regarding scum Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically My take on this: NN claiming is a bad idea as they are likely to be lynched day 1, which ensures that a town is lynched day 1. I come to this conclusion because the person claiming NN may be scum, but even if they are not they do not have a useful town power role and the NN might harm the town later. For me, the day that an NN claims is the day that an NN is likely to be lynched. If we later have the choice between lynching two people who are NN or scum and we lynch the wrong one then we just lynch the scum the following day anyway. I think that a day 1 NN claim would benefit the scum more than the town. Hurricane suggested the day 1 NN claim already and a few other people said it was a bad idea, but did not give Hurricane too much of a hard time for it. now you are making the same suggestion, which is a suggestion that will benefit scum, and I assume that you also do not think that you will get a hard time for it. I was going to give you a hard time for voting for Chromatically as I do not agree with your first point about his initial posts. I think your second point is correct although he has said he might soon make a case (but it's against me!). Still, I find the regarding claims section of your post very scummy. | ||
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On June 24 2013 14:11 Alakaslam wrote: + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 13:22 hzflank wrote: At the moment I am looking at FirmTofu. His chain of attack and defense looks like: Attack Chromatically Attack Xzavier Attack Hurricane Attack Spicy Defend Hurricane Defend Xzavier Attack Spicy For some reason the defenses seem a little out of place to me, especially the defense on Xzavier. On the other hand I believe Hurricane to be town as if he were scum then he is very brave to make the first post that he did. I am also very aware that I made an slightly extended attack on Spicy, who now seems to be FirmTofu's main target. I am wondering if he thinks Spicy is a good lynch target because he can count on my vote. He has also said twice that we should only use information from this game and not previous games. I think town should have access to as much information as possible in order to lynch scum. Therefore to me, FirmTofu is currently the scummiest player. Doesn't town want to make lots of scum reads early and get people to defend themselves? Proving innocence is a great goal for us, and helps to narrow down the scum list so that no-lynch is less likely to happen. Then again, good point regarding spicy and whatnot. Hopefully, cases will flesh out and things will become clearer. Personally I don't have any reads yet, still reading thread. Good point and I agree. In fact I have been on the offensive myself with attacks against three different players, but what I am trying not to do is defend other players (much). The more that people are forced to defend themselves, the more potential there is for us to gain information. | ||
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That's a pretty flimsy case that Chrom has made against me. There is no reason to think that I would make a casual opening post when by the time I joined the game there were already five other casual opening posts. I think the game strategy stuff (regarding NN) was as good a discussion as any as it is actually important to the game. Up until this point I have in no way cared as to whether or not I look scummy, and since I got my scum read from Aquanim's first post it made sense for me to wait until there was a case made against someone before I posted this. It's about time that the scum try to get a wagon rolling and I am happy enough for that wagon to be on me, so I will even help scum Chromatically by ensuring that scum Aquanim also votes for me. Here is my take on the important parts of day 1 so far: Hurricane is the first to discuss the NN claiming. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 11:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Ugh, let's avoid the 'should we lynch lurkers talk' shall we? I'm gonna go ahead and post the play I had written earlier this week analyzing this game from a pro-town perspective. If any of my analysis is off-base, please jump in and steer me back on track. Pre-written segment starts now: Alright, chums. First let me state that in NO WAY is the following message a call for a mass claim. If you are the Parity Cop (assuming you even exist), DO NOT SAY SO. In fact, if you're our town's parity cop, it's probably better if you appear to ignore what I'm about to say completely. Same goes for Trackers and Watchers. DO NOT CLAIM. But read carefully, because you are a big part of whether we succeed or fail (whether we follow my plan or not). Now everyone, pay attention: Looking over the roles, the extremely juicy pro-town potential jumped right off the page at me, as I hope it did to many of you. Trackers can tell us if a person visits someone. Pretty good, but not nearly as good as the Watcher, who can pick a person and sees all who visit them. Obviously, this means we can try to guess the guy who's going to be mafia-killed, and we have a couple shots at seeing if he either gets visited, or manage to Track the mafia member who happens to be tagged to do the deed. Not great odds on either, but still better than nothing. My plan utilizes each role to their maximum potential. Because we are not guaranteed to have a Tracker, Watcher, or even a Parity Cop, it's important that for the roles we DO get, we use them efficiently. The Watcher needs to guess the target they think will be mafia-killed tonight. This is up to your judgement, but I'll make a recommendation later today. The fun part comes with the Tracker and the Nosy Neighbor (and by extension Parity Cop). The Tracker should secretly track the Nosy Neighbor. AGAIN, MR. OR MRS. TRACKER: DO NOT CLAIM NOW. If we have a Nosy Neighbor, they should claim IMMEDIATELY. Once the Tracker can confirm that the Nosy Neighbor is in fact moving around at night, but not visiting the person who got Mafia-killed, WE CAN ESTABLISH HIM AS TOWN. This is a big deal. The Parity Cop can then tag the confirmed Nosy Neighbor as Town and start measuring up suspects against them. If he gets a 'Different' claim, the other person is Scum. If he gets 'Same', they are town. I can elaborate further, but I feel like you can all piece together whatever holes are out there without me holding your hand even further. This is an extremely pro-town set-up (assuming there aren't a bunch of red herrings in which case, Hi I'm sponge, and I just gave you all the book on me.) and I'd like to move fast before mafia can organize their thoughts in their private little forum. If we move fast, and force independent action, they lose one of their many advantages. I wont go into my game theory here but can do in another post if people request, however I absolutely believe that the NN declaring is something that the scum would want. There were several people that disagreed with NN claiming, but importantly no one declared Hurricane to be especially scummy for making the post. Aquanim then makes a first post that is clever scum. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: You wound me. Regarding claims I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum. Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.) Regarding scum Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically Aquanim hopes that he can get a few town to agree that the NN should out themselves. Then his scumbuddies can also agree and the NN might claim, giving an advantage to the scum team. Since Hurricane did not get a hard time, Aquanim does not think that he will be lynched for being the first to make the suggestion. Aquanim is fairly sure that when the time comes he can rely on Hurricanes vote for NN to claim, so he really only needs two more town votes, which makes it worth a try. Aqua's scumbuddy, Chromatically, has already said that the NN claiming is a bad idea. Aqua sees a chance to make a good play here and throws a weak vote on Chromatically. It is still early in the day and there is little chance of a wagon forming. Aqua never intends to leave his vote on Chromatically, but is just creating some distance from him so that it wont look suspicious if Chromatically should change his mind about the NN claim. Ofcourse there is the added bonus that if Chromatically should later flip scum then Aqua can refer to his very first post and claim to be confirmed town. Next, FirmTofu defends my weak read on him. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 13:34 FirmTofu wrote: You are taking an extremely simplified approach to analyze my actions. I am not "attacking" or "defending" anyone. I am stating my opinions on how various people are behaving. If you can't distinguish between the two, we have a serious problem here. You can't say that my "defenses" are out of place without even looking at the context of the situation. Read my quote, see if it makes sense to you, and form an opinion based on that. Furthermore, this post is as scummy as scummy gets. You state that you can side with me as I pursue a lynch on Spicy(see 1), but you also consider me to be the scummiest player(see 2). How are these two chain of thoughts compatible? By this point I suspect that either Aqua or Chromatically might put their vote on me, but I cannot say so prematurely, especially since Aqua still has his vote on Chrom. After a little consideration I decide to lurk for a while, as I wanted Chrom to make a post of some sort before I made this claim. Next we have: On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote: @FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically? So right after Aqua realised my above mistake with Firm, he asks Firm for his read on Chrom (who aqua still has his vote on). He is either looking for Firm to give him a good reason to think Chrom is town, or he is looking for Firm to give a scum read on me, or both. Either way, Firm is the most likely town to get onto my wagon at this point, so it is good setup. Here we have Aqua ask Firm again for their opinion on his case on Chromatically. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote: First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe. Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on: 1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it. 2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these. The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot. Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him. I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly. The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though. My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please. Remember that this was the case that Aqua put forth in his very first post of the game. It was not a strong case and he knew it would never stand, so it was a good way to both give people a town read on his scumbuddy and also create some distance within the scum team. Firm responds that he thinks Chrom is town, which is exactly what Aqua wanted and why he asked him twice. Aqua has now gotten Firm (the person he thinks he can get to vote for me) to say that the scumbuddy that Aqua has his vote on (Chrom) is town. Well played Aqua. Shorlty after, Aqua posts this + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote: I suppose that's a fair enough position to hold. I've personally found that my reads based on 'feelings' are often more accurate than those where I carefully assemble 'evidence'. This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII. Asking questions is a town-y kind of thing to do, I agree. However, in my mind it is only significantly town-y when there is an actual plan behind those questions. By comparison, Chromatic was asking pretty generic questions without any real point or follow-up. Asking other people for their reads while having shared none of his own does not sit well with me. Pointing out that some plan or another is stupid before anyone else does is a really cheap way of accumulating town-cred without committing to anything. Someone was going to shoot that plan down either way, so a scum player would have nothing to gain from not shooting it down. All this being said, I think that what he's done so far could plausibly be explained by a town mentality as well as a scum one. If he comes back tomorrow and starts playing a good town-game I'll be looking to lynch somebody else. For the meantime, though, my vote and intention stays. There he gets in that his read on Chrom is based on feelings rather than evidence. He is telling us that there is no good reason to suspect Chrom while he still has his vote on Chrom. He closed by saying that if Chrom starts to play a good town game then he will move his vote to someone else, which in this case will be the person that Chrom votes for because they are scumbuddies. Here Aqua mocks Firm for voting due to inactivity because part of their plan was that Firm would vote for me, and he wants to make sure that Firm will move his vote. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 19:35 Aquanim wrote: You're being voted because FirmTofu wasn't man enough to put his vote on somebody he thought would talk back. Don't worry about it, just read the thread and let us know who you think is suspicious. I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on what's happened in the game so far sometime in the next few hours. Chromatically gets back online and makes this post: + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote: Aqua, are you scum? Both of these things are towntells. Explain to me the scum motivation in getting discussion rolling early day 1, which was OBVIOUSLY the reason that I pressured Spicy (and it worked). Sorry, if you thought that it was "ludicrous", but it doesn't make me scum and you know it. If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them? Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason? You also said: Oh, this feels more like the scum Chromatic from XXXI? I am very, very uncomfortable with you, Aqua, because you are usually very town from your first post. This game, you've done a lot of shitting up the thread with stuff about claims and Nns. I take that as: 'Okay Aqua, time to unvote me now because I am going to try to start a wagon on someone else and it would not look as good for you to move your vote directly from me to them'. Surprise surprise, in the very next post Aqua unvotes Chrom, which we all knew would happen after reading Aqua's very first post in this game (where he voted for Chrom). The most important line in this post by Aqua is: 'Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you', because that is him paving the way for Chrom to begin the mis-lynch attempt. And then finally Chrom makes a case against me and votes. Now, it would be easier for me to vote if I had an individual scum read, but since I am fairly confident that both Aqua and Chrom are scum, I am going to vote for Chrom because I think doing so will force Aqua to take a very strong stance one way or the other. Chrom already has his vote on me, so if I vote Aqua then Chrom does not need to make a decision and can just leave his vote where it is. ##Vote: Chromatically | ||
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On June 25 2013 03:17 FirmTofu wrote: Just finished reading the thread. Thank you, hzflank. You are my hero. + Show Spoiler + On June 25 2013 02:53 hzflank wrote: I've been waiting for particular posts from Aquanim and Chromatically, which they have now made. That's a pretty flimsy case that Chrom has made against me. There is no reason to think that I would make a casual opening post when by the time I joined the game there were already five other casual opening posts. I think the game strategy stuff (regarding NN) was as good a discussion as any as it is actually important to the game. Up until this point I have in no way cared as to whether or not I look scummy, and since I got my scum read from Aquanim's first post it made sense for me to wait until there was a case made against someone before I posted this. It's about time that the scum try to get a wagon rolling and I am happy enough for that wagon to be on me, so I will even help scum Chromatically by ensuring that scum Aquanim also votes for me. Here is my take on the important parts of day 1 so far: Hurricane is the first to discuss the NN claiming. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 11:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Ugh, let's avoid the 'should we lynch lurkers talk' shall we? I'm gonna go ahead and post the play I had written earlier this week analyzing this game from a pro-town perspective. If any of my analysis is off-base, please jump in and steer me back on track. Pre-written segment starts now: Alright, chums. First let me state that in NO WAY is the following message a call for a mass claim. If you are the Parity Cop (assuming you even exist), DO NOT SAY SO. In fact, if you're our town's parity cop, it's probably better if you appear to ignore what I'm about to say completely. Same goes for Trackers and Watchers. DO NOT CLAIM. But read carefully, because you are a big part of whether we succeed or fail (whether we follow my plan or not). Now everyone, pay attention: Looking over the roles, the extremely juicy pro-town potential jumped right off the page at me, as I hope it did to many of you. Trackers can tell us if a person visits someone. Pretty good, but not nearly as good as the Watcher, who can pick a person and sees all who visit them. Obviously, this means we can try to guess the guy who's going to be mafia-killed, and we have a couple shots at seeing if he either gets visited, or manage to Track the mafia member who happens to be tagged to do the deed. Not great odds on either, but still better than nothing. My plan utilizes each role to their maximum potential. Because we are not guaranteed to have a Tracker, Watcher, or even a Parity Cop, it's important that for the roles we DO get, we use them efficiently. The Watcher needs to guess the target they think will be mafia-killed tonight. This is up to your judgement, but I'll make a recommendation later today. The fun part comes with the Tracker and the Nosy Neighbor (and by extension Parity Cop). The Tracker should secretly track the Nosy Neighbor. AGAIN, MR. OR MRS. TRACKER: DO NOT CLAIM NOW. If we have a Nosy Neighbor, they should claim IMMEDIATELY. Once the Tracker can confirm that the Nosy Neighbor is in fact moving around at night, but not visiting the person who got Mafia-killed, WE CAN ESTABLISH HIM AS TOWN. This is a big deal. The Parity Cop can then tag the confirmed Nosy Neighbor as Town and start measuring up suspects against them. If he gets a 'Different' claim, the other person is Scum. If he gets 'Same', they are town. I can elaborate further, but I feel like you can all piece together whatever holes are out there without me holding your hand even further. This is an extremely pro-town set-up (assuming there aren't a bunch of red herrings in which case, Hi I'm sponge, and I just gave you all the book on me.) and I'd like to move fast before mafia can organize their thoughts in their private little forum. If we move fast, and force independent action, they lose one of their many advantages. I wont go into my game theory here but can do in another post if people request, however I absolutely believe that the NN declaring is something that the scum would want. There were several people that disagreed with NN claiming, but importantly no one declared Hurricane to be especially scummy for making the post. Aquanim then makes a first post that is clever scum. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: You wound me. Regarding claims I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum. Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.) Regarding scum Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically Aquanim hopes that he can get a few town to agree that the NN should out themselves. Then his scumbuddies can also agree and the NN might claim, giving an advantage to the scum team. Since Hurricane did not get a hard time, Aquanim does not think that he will be lynched for being the first to make the suggestion. Aquanim is fairly sure that when the time comes he can rely on Hurricanes vote for NN to claim, so he really only needs two more town votes, which makes it worth a try. Aqua's scumbuddy, Chromatically, has already said that the NN claiming is a bad idea. Aqua sees a chance to make a good play here and throws a weak vote on Chromatically. It is still early in the day and there is little chance of a wagon forming. Aqua never intends to leave his vote on Chromatically, but is just creating some distance from him so that it wont look suspicious if Chromatically should change his mind about the NN claim. Ofcourse there is the added bonus that if Chromatically should later flip scum then Aqua can refer to his very first post and claim to be confirmed town. Next, FirmTofu defends my weak read on him. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 13:34 FirmTofu wrote: You are taking an extremely simplified approach to analyze my actions. I am not "attacking" or "defending" anyone. I am stating my opinions on how various people are behaving. If you can't distinguish between the two, we have a serious problem here. You can't say that my "defenses" are out of place without even looking at the context of the situation. Read my quote, see if it makes sense to you, and form an opinion based on that. Furthermore, this post is as scummy as scummy gets. You state that you can side with me as I pursue a lynch on Spicy(see 1), but you also consider me to be the scummiest player(see 2). How are these two chain of thoughts compatible? By this point I suspect that either Aqua or Chromatically might put their vote on me, but I cannot say so prematurely, especially since Aqua still has his vote on Chrom. After a little consideration I decide to lurk for a while, as I wanted Chrom to make a post of some sort before I made this claim. Next we have: So right after Aqua realised my above mistake with Firm, he asks Firm for his read on Chrom (who aqua still has his vote on). He is either looking for Firm to give him a good reason to think Chrom is town, or he is looking for Firm to give a scum read on me, or both. Either way, Firm is the most likely town to get onto my wagon at this point, so it is good setup. Here we have Aqua ask Firm again for their opinion on his case on Chromatically. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote: First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe. Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on: 1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it. 2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these. The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot. Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him. I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly. The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though. My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please. Remember that this was the case that Aqua put forth in his very first post of the game. It was not a strong case and he knew it would never stand, so it was a good way to both give people a town read on his scumbuddy and also create some distance within the scum team. Firm responds that he thinks Chrom is town, which is exactly what Aqua wanted and why he asked him twice. Aqua has now gotten Firm (the person he thinks he can get to vote for me) to say that the scumbuddy that Aqua has his vote on (Chrom) is town. Well played Aqua. Shorlty after, Aqua posts this + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote: I suppose that's a fair enough position to hold. I've personally found that my reads based on 'feelings' are often more accurate than those where I carefully assemble 'evidence'. This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII. Asking questions is a town-y kind of thing to do, I agree. However, in my mind it is only significantly town-y when there is an actual plan behind those questions. By comparison, Chromatic was asking pretty generic questions without any real point or follow-up. Asking other people for their reads while having shared none of his own does not sit well with me. Pointing out that some plan or another is stupid before anyone else does is a really cheap way of accumulating town-cred without committing to anything. Someone was going to shoot that plan down either way, so a scum player would have nothing to gain from not shooting it down. All this being said, I think that what he's done so far could plausibly be explained by a town mentality as well as a scum one. If he comes back tomorrow and starts playing a good town-game I'll be looking to lynch somebody else. For the meantime, though, my vote and intention stays. There he gets in that his read on Chrom is based on feelings rather than evidence. He is telling us that there is no good reason to suspect Chrom while he still has his vote on Chrom. He closed by saying that if Chrom starts to play a good town game then he will move his vote to someone else, which in this case will be the person that Chrom votes for because they are scumbuddies. Here Aqua mocks Firm for voting due to inactivity because part of their plan was that Firm would vote for me, and he wants to make sure that Firm will move his vote. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 19:35 Aquanim wrote: You're being voted because FirmTofu wasn't man enough to put his vote on somebody he thought would talk back. Don't worry about it, just read the thread and let us know who you think is suspicious. I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on what's happened in the game so far sometime in the next few hours. Chromatically gets back online and makes this post: + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote: Aqua, are you scum? Both of these things are towntells. Explain to me the scum motivation in getting discussion rolling early day 1, which was OBVIOUSLY the reason that I pressured Spicy (and it worked). Sorry, if you thought that it was "ludicrous", but it doesn't make me scum and you know it. If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them? Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason? You also said: Oh, this feels more like the scum Chromatic from XXXI? I am very, very uncomfortable with you, Aqua, because you are usually very town from your first post. This game, you've done a lot of shitting up the thread with stuff about claims and Nns. I take that as: 'Okay Aqua, time to unvote me now because I am going to try to start a wagon on someone else and it would not look as good for you to move your vote directly from me to them'. Surprise surprise, in the very next post Aqua unvotes Chrom, which we all knew would happen after reading Aqua's very first post in this game (where he voted for Chrom). The most important line in this post by Aqua is: 'Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you', because that is him paving the way for Chrom to begin the mis-lynch attempt. And then finally Chrom makes a case against me and votes. Now, it would be easier for me to vote if I had an individual scum read, but since I am fairly confident that both Aqua and Chrom are scum, I am going to vote for Chrom because I think doing so will force Aqua to take a very strong stance one way or the other. Chrom already has his vote on me, so if I vote Aqua then Chrom does not need to make a decision and can just leave his vote where it is. ##Vote: Chromatically I almost agree with everything you said. The problem arises when you realize that the case you've made for aqua is a hell of a lot stronger than the case you've made for Chromatically. Is this something you have overlooked? Or are you deliberately weaving a story to pit town against one another? For the time being, it's hard to tell one way or the other, but I did enjoy reading. I realize that my post focused mostly on Aqua, but my case was that they were working as a team. Any case I have against Aqua alone would be so weak that even I would not vote based on it. If Aqua is scum and Chrom is town then Aqua is much more skilled at this that I am, as it would mean he made it look like he was working with Chrom without Chrom becoming aware of it, and that Chrom played right into his hands. I do not believe that, it makes my connections less likely, and going down that route is more likely to split the vote. | ||
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On June 25 2013 03:41 Chromatically wrote: I don't like your strawman on my case. You've chosen the weakest part to point out (no casual opening), but ignored the rest. It's most definitely not a flimsy case, especially compared to what you have here. Maybe you should go through it and answer my specific points. Why did you feel the need to repeat things that I had said? Okay. On June 25 2013 00:58 Chromatically wrote: This is his first post in the thread. While it might not seem like a big deal, I don't like that he doesn't have a casual opening post. He was present at the beginning of the game, so why wouldn't he post something like everyone else did? It indicates that he is uncomfortable in the thread. When I checked after game start there were five or so 'hello' posts. I did not see the need to add my own 'hello' post. I have no reason to try to fit in by posting what the people before me did and I did not even consider whether a person could possibly feel uncomfortable when posting in the thread. It was game on and I was looking forward to it, so I got stuck in. On June 25 2013 00:58 Chromatically wrote: To avoid being seen as a lurker, hz siezes on the first thing that he can: he basically repeats what I said about Spicy. He's posting just for the sake of posting, because this post is purely a restatement of what has already been said. I wrote my post before reading yours. I wrote it in a text editor as I was comparing everyone's first posts with their first posts in a previous game. I noticed the difference In Spicy's post and copied the quotes. Then I refreshed the thread and saw your post, so I added in your quote to what I already had to show that I concurred. There was no real content in the thread at this point and I thought it might put a tiny bit of pressure on Spicy. You made this post, but I did not think anything of it at the time: The above becomes more significant when combined with your later pokes at me. I realised it after you asked for me scumreads and then later said that you had a scum read on me and would post more later. You thought that you could set me up from the start, but to be honest you started too early before you had anything substantial on me. On June 25 2013 00:58 Chromatically wrote: Seriously, look at this from a town perspective and find the point that this post makes. It literally says nothing. He posts stuff that has already been said because he's trying hard to look for any way to post without actually contributing. The point was to add my voice to the NN claim being a bad idea, to make it less likely for the to be a claim bandwagon. I also stated a slightly different reason than you did for the NN claim. Additionally, I do not think that the NN stuff is just fluff. It has generated more content in this thread than anything else. On June 25 2013 00:58 Chromatically wrote: "Oh, remember that I'm just a noob, so don't mind me if I don't try to find scum at all." Not inconceivable from town, but more likely from scum. Not relevant, especially since I was trying to find scum from the get go. It was in fact you that forced me to lurk for a brief period today as I was waiting for you to post again to confirm suspicion that I had. | ||
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On June 25 2013 04:06 FirmTofu wrote: I agreed with it in the sense that it was a plausible theory, not that it was particularly likely. For the record I have you both pegged as town and I think you are both wasting precious time accusing one another. His conspiracy idea arose mainly because you accused him of being scum. I see his post as a long-winded retaliation against your credibility to ensure that no one bandwagons him to oblivion. While I may obviously be incorrect, it was not retaliation. Before Chrom voted for me I had already decided that if Aqua moves his vote off of Chrom and then Chrom makes a case against me then they are working together. | ||
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On June 25 2013 03:41 Chromatically wrote: lol 10/10 conspiracy theory of the century Now explain to me why this master scum plot is more likely than us both being town. It is a conspiracy theory, which we both know means that I have a lot riding on it as I stand to look like a fool if it all goes wrong. I started out by coming to the conclusion that you were either both town or both scum. Aqua's first post looked like a weak poke on a Chrom that he perceived to be town. It was like he had already decided that you were of the same alignment as he was, so I thought he either had a town read that he was trying to confirm, or he knew that you were scum. I already thought that the first part of Aqua's post was a bit scummy, so I hoped to see some interaction between you and him. Your first post in response contained this: On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote: If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them? Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason? In the above quote you referred to your previous post here: On June 24 2013 13:29 Chromatically wrote: Right now, I'm looking at Xzavier and hzflank. Both have posted a bit, but neither have been scumhunting. hz's recent post makes me feel a little better, but it did only come when I specifically asked him and I don't really agree with it. That doesn't necessarily make him scum though. There are also some other small things that bother me, but I'll elaborate on those later. Now, at this point what do you think Aqua's reply should be? Your scum read post did not really contain anything substantial and in fact I would say that I was in fact scum hunting (I had poked several people). I thought to myself: If Aqua takes his vote off of Chrom before asking Chrom for more info on his reads, then it is because Aqua does not need to know Chrom's reads. Aqua even says this himself in his next post: On June 24 2013 21:08 Aquanim wrote: Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you. And then in that same post he says: On June 24 2013 21:08 Aquanim wrote: tl;dr I had uneasy feelings about you but I feel a lot better after reading this post So Aqua does not get what he wants from you, but for some reason feels better about you, which is why I do not think that you are both town. If you were both town then that exchange should not of ended so easily. On June 25 2013 04:27 Chromatically wrote: Your explanation's fair. It still doesn't excuse the large amount of fluff and general bad feel I get from your early posting (not that's really explainable). I assume that you're busy right now answering my other questions about your case, so in addition: When did you decide this? Right when you saw Aqua's case on me? Right when Aqua said he felt better about you (above). I read that at the same time as I read your previous post. The exchange just did not go as I would expect it to between two town members. | ||
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On June 25 2013 05:23 Chromatically wrote: When did your read on Tofu change from scum to strong town? Is your town read on him totally dependent on associations between me and Aqua? When I was making my case post against you. I was not sure for a while and if I realised that if I thought Toku scummy then it was highly likely that you were town. Then I got to these posts: On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote: @FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically? On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote: I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim. Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize. Event: NN roleclaims Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing. Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets. Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation. If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum. First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe. Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on: 1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it. 2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these. The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot. Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him. I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly. On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote: I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy. The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though. My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please. Aqua asked Tofu twice for his opinions on you. This means that if I assume that you and Aqua are scum, then Tofu must be town. There is no way that one scum would insist on an opinion of another scum from the third scum. Also, I would think that Aqua and Toku are not scumbuddies, since Tofu's opinion on you seemed important to Aqua. My take on the reason for that was to establish that Tofu thinks you (Chrom) town. Since Tofu is one of the more active posters so far, if he thinks you town he would be easier to get on my wagon and may even make some good posts to convince others. So as you suggested, my strong town read on Tofu is dependent on my scum read on you and Aqua. | ||
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On June 25 2013 05:54 Chromatically wrote: Okay, last question: Why do you want your timestamps to match QTs? I was looking into the previous mafia game and trying to line up the times of the QT posts with the time of the thread posts. I was looking specifically at Spicy's opening that game. Fwiw, when I had finished I did not have a scum read on Spicy. | ||
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On June 25 2013 05:54 Chromatically wrote: Okay, last question: Why do you want your timestamps to match QTs? Why did you ask the above question to me? You are correct regarding playing by day 1 associations to be a very bad idea. I will either come up with a separate case which may or may not be against you, or I will vote on someone else's case. Before I can do that I am hoping to get some posts from other people. I do not want anyone to cast a vote on you based on my associations. Also, you only defended yourself and did not try to defend Aqua when there was no need to bus him since I had no support. Obviously this does not mean that I think you are strongly town, but I do not currently think you are the best candidate for lynching either. ##Unvote: Chromatically | ||
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I have a town read on Onegu and LoneMeow. I would like to see some more posts from Hurricane, Alakaslam and Fyfy. I am looking forward to some posts from Aqua. ##Vote: Aqua | ||
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##Vote: Aquanim | ||
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 Xzavier, we are all working with extremely limited information here, but we have to do the best we can with what we have. I still have Aquanim as my primary scum read, but I am not happy with how I went about it. I think I promised this before but after my next coffee I am going to attempt to make a case on him from scratch. If I have time I will make a couple of cases on other people solely for comparison, but I wont promise to post those until I consider the influence that they might have on voting. I also need to read a few filters because I think we all missed a massive scum tell yesterday and it is bugging me. So much to do! | ||
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On June 25 2013 00:46 Alakaslam wrote: If it helps, you guide my vote until you look scummy. Alakaslam, at the time that you posted that, what gave you such a strong town read on Onegu? | ||
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On June 25 2013 15:11 Aquanim wrote: If Alakaslam isn't your scumread, who is? Do you still think I am scum after my replies to the cases against me? In either case, who are your other scumreads? You are, but I admit that this as much to do with process than anything else. Sorry for the hold up, I am trying to make a case against you starting as neutral as I can. I am also trying to ignore anything about NN in my case. I am finding it hard to do because being neutral is harder than it sounds, but I will get there. I am not going to name any other names until I am done with you one way or the other, as I have a habit of splitting attention. In my first read I did not find your replies to the cases against you to be good enough, but if that remains the case after my next reads I will explain why. Currently I think you are more scummy than anyone else, but with 10 people to choose from (Stim does not count), the most scummy is not as much as I would like. Okay, my next post will be a case, but it may take up to 30 minutes. | ||
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Warning this is long and not especially useful. It was done more more own benefit rather than that of the thread. Just read the conclusion if you don't want to read fluff. + Show Spoiler + On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. For an opening, Aqua appears to poke Chromatically. This innocent poke looks like Aqua is just trying to get a response, which is normal scum hunting. So far, not worthy of a scum vote. Aqua then asks FirmTofu twice for his reads on Chromatically: On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote: @FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically? On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote: My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please. FirmTofu avoided the question the first time, which Aqua would have noted. Asking the question a second time indicates that Aqua was either enquiring into a read on Chrom or Tofu. So far, not worthy of a scum vote, but we need to go forward and try to work out what Aqua was trying to get from Chrom or Tofu. Aqua gets this from FirmTofu: On June 24 2013 16:48 FirmTofu wrote: As for Chromatically... Your case is extremely weak. This is not the most useful information for a town Aqua, but anything is better than nothing. Okay, Aqua is currently just as likely to be town as scum. But then: On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote: I suppose that's a fair enough position to hold. I've personally found that my reads based on 'feelings' are often more accurate than those where I carefully assemble 'evidence'. This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII. I do not agree with this. While everyone is different, I think in this forum based game our feelings are more likely to do harm than good. It is also suggesting to people that perhaps we should not make carefully assembled cases. Carefully assembled cases (that are a lot better than mine) are exactly what we want on day 1. My Scum-O-Meter is rising, and my paranoia has made an appearance. When I have time I need to go back and look if you have already left any damning evidence for us to carefully assemble. On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote: Asking questions is a town-y kind of thing to do, I agree. However, in my mind it is only significantly town-y when there is an actual plan behind those questions. By comparison, Chromatic was asking pretty generic questions without any real point or follow-up. Asking other people for their reads while having shared none of his own does not sit well with me. That's confirmation that when Aqua twice asked Tofu to respond regarding Chrom, then there is a reason for him asking. That's fine as it could be a town reason or a scum reason, but as I keep going I hope to get an idea of what his reason was. On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote: All this being said, I think that what he's done so far could plausibly be explained by a town mentality as well as a scum one. If he comes back tomorrow and starts playing a good town-game I'll be looking to lynch somebody else. For the meantime, though, my vote and intention stays. That does not give a clear indication as to whether Aqua's was looking into Chrom or actually looking into Tofu under the pre tense of poking Chrom. However, I am leaning towards him actually wanting information from Tofu rather than from Chrom. (I am intentionally staying away from the discussion on lurkers, as it should not be considered relevant to this case but might be a different discussion to have later) On June 24 2013 18:15 Aquanim wrote: Also, @Hurricane, what is your best guess as to who's scum? The plan behind this question is very obvious and simple: get hurricane involved in read-based scum hunting. Nothing scummy here Next Chrom answers: On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote: If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them? Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason? If Aqua wanted to extract something from Chrom, them I do not think he achieved it with this response. Chrom mentioned that he already posted his reads, but Aqua would of read that hours ago as it was posted at the same time as Aqua's first post. Notice that Chrom actually says what I am saying here with: 'Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. So Aqua responds: On June 24 2013 21:08 Aquanim wrote: tl;dr I had uneasy feelings about you but I feel a lot better after reading this post. My vote was fundamentally to draw reactions from you (to clarify my read) and other people, and to start some meaningful discussion (I don't think anything is accomplished in a thread until somebody's thrown down a vote). I just cannot see where Chrom's reply clarifies Aqua's read. It also failed to get much meaningful discussion from the people involved (Chrom, Tofu and Hurricane). If it were me I would of wanted to go back at Chrom more aggressively, but then Chrom's defence was solid so maybe it would have been a waste of time. I get a slightly scummy read here. On June 25 2013 10:47 Aquanim wrote: The reason why I backed off my case so fast is because I'd previously had only vague feelings that Chromatically was scum, and his replying post felt a lot like aggrieved town to me. You can come up with convoluted reasons as to why I would ask people about their opinions on my case, or you can accept the simpler and correct explanation that I wanted to draw reactions and make other players express their ideas and thinking about the game, which is a strong tool for finding scum. Okay, so Aqua confirms that your case on Chrom was aimed at getting information from Chrom. No one else agreed with you and Chrom made a strong response, but there was space to prod more if you felt it would be useful. I cannot call this scummy Considering that I flung quite a lot of muck Aqua's way I would of expected more responses directed my way, or at least something more than two short paragraphs. What happened instead was that Aqua moved onto the vote that Chrom was setting up. This could be taken as scummy or not, I should ask Aqua some questions relating to this. Conclusion: A little crumminess, but when taken alone without venturing into areas I do not want to at the moment (NN, lurkers, pre-flip associations), it is a weak case. I will probably want to ask a few questions and do some reading before I consider moving my vote though, as I dont currently have a better scum read and have not fully investigated all the cases made by others. | ||
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The only slight worry I have on Xzavier is: On June 25 2013 14:33 Xzavier wrote: Whats the massive scum yell. cuz im not gonna lie. i skimmed threw all the noisy neighbor spam just to see who was asking for them to claim. no other part of it means anything to me xD But that could just be a character trait or a lack of time. On the whole I am uncomfortable with the votes on Xzavier. | ||
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You can criticise me for playing the noob card again, but from my POV as a first time player I feel the need to have at least some conviction in my scum reads and not to change my vote every 30 minutes. The noob card is important right now though, because none of my town reads have their vote on Aqua and while I am an arrogant person, it is pretty extreme to think that I am correct while a group of people who are each more experienced than me have their votes elsewhere. Especially since the number of town reads that I have likely outnumbers the whole scum team. I did not present a case on Aqua that was likely to convince others of his guilt. That is partially because of my communication skills but also I wanted other people to come up with their own reasons, and hopefully show me things that I missed. I still think that there could be a case on Aqua, but that case depends on how much weight you hold on policy, and there are a significant number of people who do not want to put too much value into policy. Still, I think that leaving my vote on Aqua all this time was the right thing to do, as having only one wagon form on day one would have been bad. However, the wagon has lost steam and is now useless. Since I would now need to see certain flips before putting Aqua firmly in the scum team, and even if Aqua were lynched if he flipped white I would not gain enough information: ##Unvote: Aquanim | ||
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Alakaslam looks a bit scummy, as I have said previously. At this point it would not be hard for anyone to make a case against him. He obviously spent some time researching and trying to scum hunt, but his starting point was Ace. I don't know about other town members, but to be honest it had never even crossed my mind who the scum coach was. Alaka voted Aqua before Hurricane voted Xzavier, but then unvoted Aqua after Hurricane voted Xzavier. StimAddict has been wholly useless. This is a team game and not posting anything does nothing to aid the team. StimAddict voted for Aqua before Hurricane added the 5th vote on Xzavier. Either could be scum. Stim has not contributed at all. ##Vote:StimAddict | ||
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If Xzavier is scum then Onegu and I are his most likely buddies. And obviously that does not sit well with me because obviously I know my alignment. If Xzavier is scum, did his allies really give up on him that easily? Why am I the only person fighting his case? | ||
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Onegu moved his vote off of Aqua very early and has shown no indication of moving it back. If Xzavier and Onegu are both scum then Onegu should of kept his vote on Aqua until the wagon gathered more steam. There were still many people who had not voted when Onegu moved his vote. | ||
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LoneMeow was the first to vote on Xzavier. I think that LoneMeow is town. He has never looked scummy to me and he thought that Xzavier was scum for the start. It makes sense that LoneMeow would be the first to vote on Xzavier. Next to add their vote was Chromatically. Despite my earlier attack, Chrom has been looking more and more town to me. The only reason that I can see a scum Chrom voting Xzavier when he did is if Aqua is also scum, and everyone thought that idea was ridiculous. Therefore, I expect most of you see Chrom as town and the first two people on the wagon as town. Aqua was the third to vote. Most of you think Aqua is town. That means most of you must think that the first 3 people on the wagon are town. Is that not odd to anyone? If three townies jump on a scum wagon then there should of been a counter play by the scum team by now. And yet I started the Aqua wagon and I am posting this. It does not make sense. | ||
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We will also get Fyfy's flip, which is a bonus. | ||
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On the other hand you flipping red would be fantastic, as it eliminates one scum and makes 3 people almost certainly town. There's such a big gap between you flipping red and green. | ||
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On June 26 2013 09:08 Aquanim wrote: Hiya all. My opinion on the StiMaDDict wagon: His play hasn't helped town at all so far, but the sheer volume (or lack of it) of his filter makes it difficult to establish a solid read on him. He could be scum, but he could also just be lazy/busy/trolly town, it's too early to tell. In any case, it is possible to establish a much better read on Xzavier. I'm far more confident on my scumread of him than on StiMaDDict. In addition, knowing Xzavier's alignment for certain tells us a LOT about what's happened today. Knowing StiMaDDict's alignment would tell us next to nothing. + Show Spoiler [An aside] + On June 25 2013 15:29 Xzavier wrote: Honestly not today. he did a really good jpb as town last game and gave some good insights. After going threw his filter it seems like he was forced into a defensive posting pattern due to pressure. he hasnt said much recently. Honestly i wouldnt mind lynching alakazam day 1. But ill giv him a chance to respond. Im really not liking chrom or auqa for their tunnelling me while ignoring logic and basing everything off of the fact that i havnt caught scum yet or made a case. On June 26 2013 03:50 Xzavier wrote: I dont get why aqua and chrome are voting somebody they know can be a good town. I havnt made huge cases yet, i havnt had time to. ill be active during night one if im still aliv. I would prefer to delay my lynch until day2. today id like a lynch on alakazam or aqua. idc which. ill probably choose between the two on my break fepending on the situation. IF I DO GET LYNCHED: everybody take a long hard look at aqua and chrom. and look at alakazam now he lurks and one of his few posts was saying im sheeping and doing no scumhunting this game until the guy im sheeping looks scummy. the godfather last game i was in said something almost identical to that. its a pretty big noob scum tell imo. alone it judt warrents serious investifagation. There's a pattern here of wanting not to lynch people based on their strong play in previous games... which has absolutely no relevance to this game. Could be a side-effect of him not having time to read this thread properly, but not wanting to commit to anything relevant to this game is characteristic of scum. Actually I agree. I have been doing some more thinking. If Stim flips green: Nothing If Stim flips red: Aqua is town If Xzavier flips green: Lots of little bits, but nothing concrete If Xzavier Flips red: Chrom, LoneMeow and Hurricane are town. Tofu is very likely town. Additionally, if Xzavier flips red it might be possible to use town roles to just straight up win the game by day 3 or 4. You only need to look at 4 people: if role x exists use on person A, lynch person C, etc. Therefore, there is more to gain by lynching Xzavier than Stim. On June 26 2013 08:57 Xzavier wrote: Relax ill flip green. i think the reason there wasnt a scum counterplay id s because scum took iniative. Hen town hopped on boaredm since it looks like im pretty dead. Can somebody explain to me why im scum! Lol. This is not a defense. If you think that LoneMeow's vote on you makes him scum then you have not been following the game closely enough. I did my best to give you a chance to defend yourself, but you just haven't produced anything, and your attackers are making good points. Sorry for moving me vote 4 times :/ ##Unvote: StimAddict ##Vote: Xzavier | ||
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On June 26 2013 09:11 Chromatically wrote: Spicy and hz, did you read my case? It didn't convince you at all? And if you put your vote on someone random, and then don't push their lynch at all, you are wasting your vote. I read it and it did not convince me. I will respect your time and go back to read it again though. Currently I have read some parts of the thread many times but other parts only once or twice. I put my vote on someone who I thought more scummy than Xzavier. I still think that, but you can see above what my reasons for now voting Xzavier are. | ||
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In short: a super late day 1 wagon on me would be a terrible idea for the town. (Not that it was suggested). | ||
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On June 26 2013 10:12 Chromatically wrote: ..what? Why are you thinking about what makes you look scummy? Why aren't you lynching based on who you actually think is scum? Because it is not a one day game. I am lynching based on which lynch I think is most beneficial to the town, as I said when I voted. In fact, at this point I think it would be bad for the town for me to try to get people to vote for the people who I think have the most chance of flipping red. | ||
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On June 26 2013 10:16 Alakaslam wrote: Hey hz. If you still are wondering what I was thinking about Onegu, he really cleaned up after some questionable (but well intentioned!!) posting (linking old games to "give town meta" {read: distract town, Onegu alerted me}, trying to make a bit of a scumread on Tofu and defend myself at the same time, while not checking what I was doing, general hypocrisy etc.) As you can see, I've been reading your filter. I am wondering, Whence does the scumread on Aqua come from? Does it still stand? I am not convinced that Aqua is scum. It's still conditional on Chromatically also being scum. Going from a statistical point of view that is a bad way for me to look at it for the time being. | ||
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However, if voting for player B is guaranteed to produce no other information, then voting for player B only has a 30% chance of moving the town closer to the win. If voting for player A has a 25% chance to produce information that will all but confirm multiple players as town, then voting for player A has a >30% chance of moving the town closer to the win. | ||
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I think that Stim and Alakaslam are both more likely to be scum than to be scum than Xzavier is. However, if Stim or Alakaslam were to flip red right now I would still not be confident as to who the other scum are. If Xzavier were to flip red right now then I think that the town would have a very good chance of finding the other scum quickly. | ||
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The reason that I should not of been the one to start the other wagon is that even if I did and Xzav flips red, or the other wagon flips green, that gives me no information as to who the scumbuddies are and no be honest I don't think it would of given the town enough info either. If someone else had been more proactive in starting the counter wagon then it would of given better scum reading material. | ||
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On June 26 2013 10:46 Chromatically wrote: Don't you have a townread on Xzav? You were defending him not too long ago. It's gradually deteriorated. His latest posts did nothing to help him, and in fact he made one really scummy post recently. On June 26 2013 08:57 Xzavier wrote: Relax ill flip green. i think the reason there wasnt a scum counterplay id s because scum took iniative. Hen town hopped on boaredm since it looks like im pretty dead. Can somebody explain to me why im scum! Lol. Either he is scum or he is not even trying to win. | ||
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On June 26 2013 13:37 Aquanim wrote: I played a large role in lynching a townie Day 1 and I acnowledge that some of you probably suspect me because of this. I believed he was the most likely player in the game to flip red, and I explained clearly why I believed that. If you suspect that I am scum, I suggest you read my filter and ask yourself two questions: Your vote on Xz is a complete null read. A town Aqua would have been correct to vote on the other wagon when you did (on day one where you could not possibly of had a night-action read on anyone). | ||
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If you were a Vig, and the game rules were that you must take your shot on night 1, who would you shoot? | ||
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@Hurricane Correction to that question: If you had to Vig kill someone tonight, but all players looked equally scummy, who would you shoot? | ||
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On June 26 2013 14:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote: This is WIFOM hell. If I pick a target, say 'StiM' and that target is actually town, the mafia will let me shoot away and bury my team. If I pick a target, say 'hzflank' and that target is mafia, the mafia can roleblock me tonight and send a Goon to kill me. I refuse to answer this question on the grounds that you look SUPER DUPER like scum right now, unless you're actually the Vig. I don't even know if there is a Vig in the game. We have not seen a night play out so we have no idea what roles are present. If there is a Vig, then as Aqua said, they need to be damn sure that their target is scum if they are going to shoot before we get a successful lynch. My point was: Aqua is bulletproof tonight (from the scum NK). Even if they are both town and the scum want Onegu lynched day 2, they still will not NK Aqua tonight. | ||
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To clarify: I am NOT saying that a Vig should shoot aqua. A mis-kill would be disastrous, and I am not claiming him to be scum. I was just thinking 'if this guy flipped now, what would it tell us'. And I realized that the town stands more to gain from an Aqua flip than anyone else. Aqua had the second wagon in day 1, and there is now a wagon forming on Onegu, who claims he will make his case on Aqua. | ||
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I disagreed on Hurricane's policy, so I wanted to push him on it. Maybe he knew someone that I did not? Regardless, I would be very careful of letting the scum know who the wagons will be on before they have to pick their night kill. | ||
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Looking at the thread from this point of view is interesting. It gives me several strong town reads and identifies a cluster of people which I believe contains scum. At least one of the people who voted for Xz is scum, and I am not comfortable that as soon as he flipped green people started a case on Onegu. To be fair the case almost swayed me at first, but after consideration I still have Onegu as town. | ||
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While I was really really bad town with many mistakes, Aqua's opening about the policy stuff added fuel to my fire. Not only did it get my attention but it got the attention of several other people who thought Aqua is/was scum. If Aqua is town then that was a mistake. (I am not criticizing, I am trying to learn here). Without the day 1 policy stuff, there is not a strong enough case on Aqua. His vote on Xz was one of the null reads, since there was a wagon on Aqua he was going to vote on the other wagon regardless. The fact that Aqua was the other wagon is not indicative of scum because my bad play gave the scum an easy way to let us vote on two town wagons. I don't think that Onegu's above case on Aqua is strong enough at the moment. There are some minor points there, but we have better information at our disposal now. | ||
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It's more interesting, but I have only read it once so far. I am doing some more analysis now and will read it again shortly. Trying to make up for my day 1 blunders Really though, if you have time read page 18 from when I vote for Aqua through to the end of page 19, then read the bit where Tofu votes for Xz also. That is a goldmine information if we can get our heads around it. | ||
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I noticed the bully also. Whether this is town or scum depends on who he votes for. If he is planning to vote for you (Onegu) then this is a scummy thing to do. On the other hand, it may of been a trap he was laying for Alakaslam. We dont know because Alakaslam dodged it. I have also noticed him tunneling Spicy. After the flip I got a 'good town' read on Spicy. To clarify that, I have little reason to see Spicy as scummy at the moment and if Spicy is town then I think he has played a good game and been the most useful of us all. However, I was planning do some analysis of Spicy tomorrow to try to get a stronger read on him. Your case is reasonable, but I am not willing to put my vote behind it because it contains nothing about the voting and the flip. I do not think we should ignore the voting from day 1. | ||
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Chromatically votes on Xzavier, who already had one vote from LoneMeow. Aqua and Chrom talk about reads and agree on a scum read on Xzavier. Xzavier votes on Aqua, then Aqua returns the favour. Lets break this down: LoneMeow's vote on Xzavier was not a scummy vote. If anything it was a tunnel vote, since Xzavier was his scum read all along. This was early in the day, there was no need to vote to help anyone. If LoneMeow is scum then this is clever setup incase the other scum need to jump on later. Lone was not around at the deadline, so if this was scum setup then they were always going to be stuck on Xzavier. There is no evidence that this is setup by a scum LoneMeow, though. Next there is some back and forth where Chromatically seems to be looking for consensus from Aqua and Tofu. Chromatically and Aqua both agree that Xzavier is one of theu top two targets (each have a different secondary target). Tofu does not post again for a while so I am going to assume that he is still firmly set on Spicy as his vote target. Aqua makes a mention of a town/null read on LoneMeow. Xzavier votes on Aqua. Aqua votes on Xzavier. I would of done the same in Aqua's position, but then so would a scum. I think that this part of the voting looks bad on Chromatically. Due to my earlier tactical mistakes, I had left an opportunity where Chromatically can guarantee two votes (LeonMeow and Aqua) on Xzavier. If Chromatically were scum, he could also get votes (probably 2 more) from the other scum if needed. And if Xzavier flips town then he is not obviously implicated. In addition, my case on Aqua was weak and I lacked conviction and there were other people jumping on Aqua's policy stuff, so it was not even guaranteed that he would need to get all of the other scum on the wagon. This is not a case on Chrom and if it were he can easily defend it, however Chrom is far from confirmed town in my mind. I hope this is a good example of how badly I fucked up on day 1 and have clever scum ways to lynch town without implicating themselves. I will add more on the later stages of the voting when I can (unless people think this is crap and dont want to read it). | ||
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On June 26 2013 23:59 Spicydinosaur wrote: Any talk of D2 lynches is dangerous as scum can easily redirect night actions. Posting cases and thoughts are fine, but anything that resembles "as soon as d2 post is up my vote is on x" should be avoided. That was what I thought. However, there was talk of day 2 lynches within an hour of the flip. Someone has already even tried to vote! | ||
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On June 26 2013 06:36 Chromatically wrote: It helps that I have a town read on everyone on the Xzav wagon, so I really don't think that scum is pushing this wagon at all. I'd be surprised if there are no scum at all on a town wagon. Before the flip you suspected Onegu for the reasoning behind his voting. While the flip does not change his reasoning, I expected it to cause you to reconsider more. Although Meow was the first to vote for Xzavier, with the way it happened I consider you to be the starter of the Xzavier wagon. Therefore, your insight into the votes that your wagon gathered will be very useful. There is no rush, we have 48 hours, but I was just surprised that you started with Onegu and Spicy. | ||
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On June 27 2013 03:00 Hurricane Sponge wrote: This can be explained as a difference of playstyle. You have been recently accused of not doing everything in your power to save Xzavier from lynch when you thought he was town. Tofu is demonstrating what he's willing to do to save someone he thinks is Town from a lynch. Tofu was one of the people on the wagon. Go back and read how the votes went down. Look at exactly who voted when and the reasons given. If Tofu is town then at least one other person on that wagon is scum. Why is Tofu wasting so much time on people who were not on the wagon? | ||
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On June 26 2013 08:26 FirmTofu wrote: There was a counter play! The scum saw that you had already started a vote on Aqua and used that as an opportunity to draw attention away from Xzavier. While I strongly believe you are town because you were the one to start the lynch with some pretty good analysis, I do not believe that the other people pursuing the Aqua wagon are free from blame. The fact that they jumped on Aqua right after Xzavier's bandwagon was gaining momentum is indicative of this fact. | ||
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On June 27 2013 03:16 Chromatically wrote: I don't know where you're going with these. Not caring about the lynch looks bad no matter what the flip is, that's what I said before the flip. Now that we know both wagons were likely town, there is clear scum motivation to not vote for either. I've stated my reasoning about why Aqua and Spicy look bad, do you disagree? Did anyone actually care about the lynch? Sure, you and Tofo pushed hard to get people onboard when it was tight between Xz and Aqua but as soon as Xz was highly likely to be lynched everyone stopped caring. People who were not on the wagon jumped on. People who were on the wagon discussed moving there vote. Not to mention that we currently have a better chance working out which passenger was scum than we do of working out which non-passenger was scum. Your case on Onegu is severely hampered by all the other talk about Onegu being scummy. If you were scum, which you very well might be, then the obvious move was to pressure Onegu once Xz flipped green. There was loads of preparation done for this move pre-flip, when most of us did not even know that xZ would flip green. | ||
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The best way for the town to get a correct read on which of you is scum (if any) is if you look for guilt in each other. | ||
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On June 27 2013 03:43 Chromatically wrote: Why don't you explain how the flip made each of us look bad? Why don't you do some scum hunting? | ||
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I don't want to make any sort of case yet, because I want to be sure who the case will be against, if and when I make it. So i dont want to walk you through it. I wont be on until the end of the night now. | ||
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On June 27 2013 04:48 FirmTofu wrote: I think the distinguishing factor is intent. What intention would a scum Tofu have to save Aquanim? The only possible scenario I see is if Aqua and I are both scum and I was desperately trying to get the vote off him by lying. If you adhere to that belief, you have a case against me. But otherwise, I don't think you can hold it against me. In the context of my lie, aqua and I being different alignments is incompatible. If you were scum and Aqua were town then there are other reasons as to why you pushed for hard for the Xz lynch. At first glance, the Xz lynch did not make you look scummy. Also, Aqua stated early that he thought Onegu scummy and repeated it many times. After the vote was secure but before the flip, there was already talk in the thread of Onegu being scum. If the scum thought that they already had the start of a day 2 case against Onegu then they would want Aqua alive to help their case. It a weak reason and alone means nothing in terms of Tofu being scum, but I don't think it should be totally ignored. I will grab the quotes about this tomorrow and try to ogranise the info, for my sake as well as yours. | ||
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On June 27 2013 11:05 FirmTofu wrote: With no sk, doesn't mafia get +1? I'm not sure how balancing works on these forums. likely 9+3. If there is SK then likely 8+2+1. | ||
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On June 27 2013 11:15 FirmTofu wrote: Aqua, Chromatically and I have made the case for Onegu's lynch extremely clear. Please read our respective filters for more information. I wouldn't expect Hurricane to be the one to justify the wagon to you. You can just see that confirmed town flip Parity Cop Chromatically wanted him dead. Chrom did not seem to think Onegu was scum. He actually thought Spicy and Lone were the most likely scum. | ||
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Sorry my bad, that was Aqua who thought that Lone and Spicy were scummier than Onegu. | ||
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The caffeine should kick in at some point. | ||
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I will add some content not related to blue roles in half an hour or so. | ||
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I wanted to build a case against Firm. I did not like the way we were all making fluffy cases so I tried to make my case differently. I communicated a bit with a coach and they basically told me that my methods were not good. So instead of making my case against Firm I re-evaluated how I was playing the game. I then voted for StimAddict. There were several reasons for this vote. Firstly, I did not want Onegu to feel comfortable. The way I was posting made it look as though I would defend Onegu when Firm inevitably made long case against him, and I wanted Onegu to question that and feel some pressure. Second, I want StimAddict to feel some pressure too, and Aqua already had is vote there so it made sense for me to add mine. Lastly, I thought that if Stim does happen to be scum and a third town happens to drop a vote there then his scum buddies would have to start defending him. Then Firm posts his case against Onegu. I read it twice and did some filter diving. I decided that if I were to put the time in I could make a strong defense against Firm's case. I have not written this yet but should probably do so shortly. I could not of posted it anyway because regardless of anyone alignment I believed it was best for the town if Onegu felt some pressure. | ||
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Firm, it's a bad case. You are convinced of his guilt so you are using anything you can to prove it. That's your style and that's fine, but you are not getting my vote for those reasons. Point 1: Fluffy reason. You are also looking for reasons to vote against Onegu that in hindsight you probably wont agree with. See my opening to this post. Point 2: Onegu's vote switch off of Aqua only makes Onegu look scum if Aqua is also scum. If Onegu knew Aqua and Xzavier he could just of left his vote on Aqua as it did not matter which of the two was lynched. In fact, Aqua was playing a better town game than Xzavier so lynching Aqua would have been better for the scum. If Aqua were scum then Onegu switch his vote at a time that ensured Xzavier would be lynched instead of Aqua, but I would have to be a fool to cast a vote today based on that Association. This is especially true because Aqua and I seem to have been thinking on similar lines for most of day 2, and one point I felt like we were almost masonned. Also, on page 22 you played a part in convincing Onegu to move his vote off of Aqua. You were pushing hard to get people to vote in the way you thought it best, just as you are today. That's not a bad thing as I think good town play requires conviction, but it also does not mean that your vote is in the right place. Point 3: I stopped Onegu's day 2 attacked on Aqua. It was really bad play by me. After re-evaluating my play I realise this but it's too late to change that now. I put Onegu in a position where he felt that he might need to vote against your inevitable case, and I was fairly clear that I would not be voting Aqua to be lynched today. I apologise, but your point 3 would be better in a case against me than it is in a case against Onegu. Point 4: Fluffy reason. The cases we were making against Aqua were weak and full of fluffy reasons. Once Onegu has moved his vote off of Aqua then his wagon was doomed to fail, and Onegu moving it back at that point would not of helped. I cannot read his mind to tell you exactly why he felt apathetic, but that feeling alone is not a strong scum tell. Point 5: My fault. During the night I made it look like I thought either you or Chromatically were scummy. You made it look like you were starting an early wagon on Onegu. It also looked like you had secured votes from Hurricane and Alakaslam, and there was even a reasonable chance of getting Aqua on board. Onegu needed my vote to save himself, so his best option was to attack you. Again, it was horribly bad town play by me and I am sorry for that, but this is not a scum tell on Onegu. Overall, I think Onegu seems scummier to you than the other players are you wanted to vote for him. You put a lot of effort into your case and found what you thought were the scummiest things possible about Onegu. Unfortunately, I don't think there was enough there to make a really strong scum case. After I finished reading your case I was not convinced that Onegu was town, and at the time of this post I am still not 100% convinced that Onegu is town. However, I was leaning town and I am now leaning even more town. | ||
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Consider your best town read as 100% town in order to stop the circular logic. Then play from that position. | ||
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On June 28 2013 14:58 Alakaslam wrote: I have no idea if I was visited but Onegu visited Hurricane. You are claiming tracker? | ||
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I think I know who Onegu's strongest town read is, so I will be watching their vote. | ||
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One of them is lying. | ||
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If Onegu is town then his strongest town read can vouch for him. However, that means we reveal a blue role. | ||
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Lynch scum Onegu. Lynch scum Alakaslam. Lynch scum Alakaslam while revealing a blue role. | ||
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On June 28 2013 15:11 Alakaslam wrote: If anyone is wondering, why I watched Onegu is within. + Show Spoiler + He so threw off my game that I needed to know more about him. Was he my teacher and critic or my puppet master? Teacher and mentor has been (well duh, Hapahauli and ObviousOne, but I am too stupid for it to work) but Hurricane. Found what I thought would be nothin now I am the key to catching Onegu. Who would have thought I could finally be useful to town. Be careful with your words. You claimed to Track Onegu, not to Watch him. | ||
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On June 28 2013 15:13 Alakaslam wrote: Excuse me but what happens with (Hypothetical, I KNoW now) lynch town Onegu? If Onegu is town then a blue town is in the position to vouch for him, by revealing their role. | ||
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On June 28 2013 15:13 FirmTofu wrote: The problem with this logic is that you are assuming his strongest town read is town. What if his strongest town read is mafia? In fact, wouldn't it be more likely that his strongest town read was mafia if he himself was mafia? His thought process would be, "I'll claim watcher and my mafia scumbuddy can vouch for me so I don't get lynched today." It all comes down to who you believe. I trust Alakaslam a lot more than I do Onegu. You are welcome to decide for yourself, but I don't think I can be convinced to change my vote at this point. If his strongest read is scum and we mislynch Alakaslam, then we have 2 100% confirmed scum reads. | ||
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On June 28 2013 15:17 FirmTofu wrote: Are you suggesting we risk a mislynch to confirm 2 mafia? I'm not entirely sure if you're being serious. Not risk. If someone claims to have visited Alakaslam last night then either the claimer + Onegu are scum or Alaka is scum. It would be stupid for a scum to make this claim. That would mean we mislych today but then get back to back scum lynches, leaving the town in a very very strong position. It is worth sacrificing 1 town to get 2 scum, if it comes to it. | ||
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On June 28 2013 15:27 FirmTofu wrote: Yeah, but we don't have to sacrifice the townie at all. Lynching Onegu gives us more information than lynching Alakaslam. If Onegu flips town, we lynch Alakaslam. If Onegu flips scum, we lynch his "best town read" If Alakaslam flips town, we lynch Onegu. If Alakaslam flips scum, we are back to square 1. No. If someone claims for Onegu and we lynch Alaka who flips green then we lynch Onegu and his best town read. | ||
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On June 28 2013 15:28 Alakaslam wrote: Hz, which town do you want to info lynch, assuming the impossible that we both are? If you do not answer people will know you are scum. I have not yet decided. There is a lot of new information to digest. | ||
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If (IF IF IF, dont ignore this IF) Onegu is set to be lyched, then someone may or may not claim that they visited Alakaslam last night. If someone does not make that claim then we lynch Onegu. If someone does make that claim then we lynch Alakaslam. If the claimer was telling the truth then Alakaslam flips red. If the claimer was lying then it is 100% confirmed that both the claimer and Onegu are scum, so we lynch then on days 3 and 4. That would probably leave us at 3 town and 1 scum remaining. | ||
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Lylo = Lynch correct or lose the game. | ||
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On June 28 2013 15:44 Alakaslam wrote: That is not what I asked you what would lea to Lylo? I need to know how badly I need to defend my case A town lynch on day 2, scum lynches on days 3 and 4 and town nightkills on nights 2, 3 and 4 leads to a 2:1 day 5 lylo. | ||
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He could of seen a Tracker or a Jailkeeper. | ||
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Talk to a coach if you need to. I do not want to see a Jailkeeper claim right now. Please! | ||
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We are all noobs, if you want to point out a flaw in someone's play then I say go ahead. It's a good way for us to learn. | ||
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Firstly, it is unlikely that he read it wrong. Secondly, I do not want to give anyone the chance to later claim "I'm not scum huys, I did not lie I just read my PM wrong". | ||
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##Vote: Onegu | ||
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If Tracker and Watcher both target VT, then Watcher sees Tracker. | ||
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On June 28 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote: Ignore this statement if it is irrelevant to yours. Remember that Hurricane pushed for Onegu's lynch. This post is not to help the town, but rather to show Firm how my mind is working: The biggest reason why I think that Hurricane is town is because when I scumhunt on him I feel like he is also scumhunting on me. When I look at some other people is has looked like when they scumhunt on me they are actually looking for a scapegoat. If Hurricane made a case against me on Day 3 I would make a case against a third party. If Hurricane thinks that I am scum that does not mean that I think he is scum. In fact in my case, it almost seems that Hurricane is the only person who is actually scumhunting in my direction. Therefore, the fact that Hurricane voted for Onegu does not mean that Onegu thinks that Hurricane is scummy. Onegu has stated that many people are scummy but he has not given away many town reads. When I tried to work out his town reads I got Hurricane and myself. Who else? Spicy might be his third read, but if Onegu is town then Hurricane and myself are his top 2 town reads. I did not visit Alakaslam on night 1, and it appears that Hurricane did not either. | ||
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Onegu claimed he saw someone visit Alakaslam. If you visited Alakaslam then you would of gone: "Oh, Onegu saw me, he is telling the truth". | ||
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On June 28 2013 18:32 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Why does Onegu seeing me mean he's the Town Watcher? He could be a Mafia Tracker. No, I botched it. You are correct. Onegu could be Mafia tracker. | ||
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Also: How did the scum team know that you were Onegu's number 1 town read? it could of been you or me. They would of had to of guessed. | ||
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Imagine there was no counter-claim: We know that your number one town read visited Alakaslam. That is not useful information. And you were still not in serious danger of being lynched. There was some moderate pressure being applied to you, but nowhere near enough to force a blue claim. If you had saw someone visit Chromatically then it would be different. But quite frankly knowing someone visited Alakaslam did nothing to help us in the day 2 scum hunt. I am still going over this. I have some good reasons as to why you are town, but also two good reasons as to why you are scum, which are: It makes little sense for you to watch Alakaslam on night one It makes little sense for you to claim that you did so when you claimed. | ||
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What are the odds that there is a Mafia Tracker who tracked Hurricane? | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote: Alakaslam | ||
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Specifically, we need to look at why the scum chose to track Hurricane. This is important. Btw, it was no accident that our cop died on night 1. Look at Chromatically's filter, he was telegraphing cop. Unfortunately the town did not pick up on this a provide any cover (by acting like a cop). The scum picked up on it though and therefore they are obviously trying to work out who has roles. | ||
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If I were Hurricane, my first reaction would of been: "I can confirm Onegu's claim so Alakaslam is scum". Btw, I have been through all the possible scenarios. I was weary of telling the scum who our blues are, but to be honest I already did that a couple of pages ago because I am a compete idiot. So, either... Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane is Mafia Framer Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane Alakaslam is town Onegu is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane Either the scum tracked Hurricane, or Hurricane is the Mafia Framer. | ||
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On June 28 2013 20:49 Aquanim wrote: Let me rephrase this: Alakaslam could claim that Onegu had visited anyone other than him and it would have made Onegu just as guilty. The fact that Alakaslam happened to claim that Onegu had visited the person who Onegu in fact saw is irrelevant to the scum's plan if Alakaslam is scum. You are correct. Thank you. | ||
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Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane is Mafia Framer Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Alakaslam is town Onegu is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane | ||
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Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane has a power role Alakaslam is town Onegu is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane | ||
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Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then either the Scum team quickly guessed that Hurricane was Onegu's town read, or the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane. | ||
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On June 28 2013 21:06 Aquanim wrote: If Alakaslam is town then Onegu is scum and so his "town read" is irrelevant. I think this should read: Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane. which isn't totally implausible. Furthermore, if they hadn't Onegu could easily have just claimed that nobody visited whoever he targeted. (Like I said, though, this has the inherent risk that someone did - just like any fakeclaim of Watcher. I agree that Alakaslam is by far the most likely of the two to be scum, but I don't think this reason quite holds water. Your base is better than mine However, Onegu said in his claim that someone visited his target. He could not then say that no one did without getting lynched. If Onegu is scum then the Mafia Tracker targeted Hurricane. Furthermore, that means that if Onegu is scum then the scum team knew that Hurricane had a power role before Onegu's claim. They need a mislynch on the watcher today so that they can shoot out other confirmed power role on night 2. | ||
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The scum team knew at the start of day 2 that Hurricane has a role. This does not go any further I should think before posting. | ||
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On June 28 2013 21:48 Spicydinosaur wrote: Just caught up on 10 pages of thread. Thats a hell of a lot of coincidences. Also by reading thread has hurricane actually confirmed he visited alakaslam or are we just assuming it? Hurricane confirmed it. I did not like the way that he confirmed it, as you will read. However, Hurricane was my strongest town read and he was extremely tired at the time. | ||
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On June 29 2013 00:09 Spicydinosaur wrote: EBWOP: It seems a much easier route would be for scum onegu to easily have picked another town role, say veteran and that would ensure his safety for at least another day due to people not wanting to risk killing 2 blues in a row, plus with the added assurance that if another person claimed veteran, it doesnt necessarily conflict. I disagree. Why would a Vet claim save him? There is no way for town to ever confirm his Vet claim. There is no good reason for him to claim Vet at that time. In fact, if he had claimed Vet I would of seen it as a scummy claim. | ||
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Where was the lie? | ||
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On June 29 2013 01:12 Alakaslam wrote: Town, tofu is clearly somehow able to deduce what is up. I give him and hurricane any credence my lynch gives me. Also though they both tunneled me I am not as suspicious of Aqua as of hz flank. But this stupid Lylo will be so hard because of the lurkers. I also apologize for basically giving mafia the game in a bottle rocket. Are you crazy? If Onegu flips red then you think that I am the most likely scum? If Onegu flips red then there is a really obvious scum player, and it is not me. | ||
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On June 29 2013 01:17 Alakaslam wrote: Hurricane never confirmed this, never CONFIRMED- he simply told town do not jump to conclusions. Scum would push for my lynch so would misconstrue what Hurricane said because he is leading us right now. He has the most credence. On June 28 2013 18:38 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Could be, but is it likely? What's to stop the mafia from deducing that I was Watcher Onegu's target, and sending their Tracker into the thread to claim? | ||
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On June 29 2013 01:23 FirmTofu wrote: Who do you think Alakaslam's teammates are if he is scum? Who do you think Onegu's teammates are if he is scum? Look at the bandwagons because scum will likely pick the same wagon. This question is directed to all town, but I would like hzflank to answer specifically. I will do Onegu first as it is much easier. If Onegu is scum then: Aquanim is 99% scum. If Onegu flips red then it will take a small miracle to make me move my day 4 vote off of Aqua. Spicy and Lonemeow would be the other possibilities. I am not sure about StimAddict as there is little to go off of, but if Aqua also flips red then Stim is 100% confirmed Town. If Alakaslam is scum then it is more difficult: I don't want to answer this right now. I need to get a coffee and mull over it. | ||
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On June 29 2013 01:44 FirmTofu wrote: Actually Hurricane is already on it, so we are gonna need to convince hzflank, StiM, or LoneMeow Unfortunately, between StiM and LoneMeow, there is probably 1 scum and I don't know which so we should work on convincing hzflank who I am almost certain is town. You think that I have the deciding vote? Fair enough. ##Unvote Scum, get on board and defend your team mate, because I am not placing my vote until the last second. | ||
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On June 29 2013 01:53 FirmTofu wrote: Thank you. I think you have made the right decision. I have not yet made a decision. I have made what I believe is the best play at this time. I cannot make a decision until we hear from Hurricane, Lone and Stim. I do not want my vote to influence their play. I will make my decision once they have made theirs. | ||
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On June 29 2013 03:52 Hurricane Sponge wrote: If what I'm saying doesn't make sense to anyone else, speak up now. I need to make my logic crystal clear before the vote. If there are flaws in my argument, don't keep it to yourself. TELL ME so I have time to re-evaluate my position. What you are saying makes sense. I came to the exact same conclusions. There is a single thing that bothers me, which is that I do not like one implication of Onegu flipping scum. | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:17 FirmTofu wrote: Let's just avoid cooking in the damn house, GOD DAMN IT! But I have such a great recipe for Spicy Dinosaur | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:21 Hurricane Sponge wrote: EBWOP: Not the jokes. The jokes are good, I laughed hz/tofu. The debate over who is more guilty (slam / onegu) seems dumb. I can't imagine that anyone has some crucial point they've yet to contribute to this issue, so theoretically everyone has formed an opinion at this time. Now is the time to plan for our future as a Town. There is still the Stim Factor. | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:30 FirmTofu wrote: Wouldn't we be in a LYLO situation if StiM and Alakaslam both flipped town? It would be game over. | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Would you call me crazy if I had a keen eye on a StiM modkill tonight? Do you think I should base my play around that? | ||
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Problem is, I am super tired already. By the time the vote comes around I will be making even less sense that usual. | ||
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On June 29 2013 01:33 hzflank wrote: I will do Onegu first as it is much easier. If Onegu is scum then: Aquanim is 99% scum. If Onegu flips red then it will take a small miracle to make me move my day 4 vote off of Aqua. Spicy and Lonemeow would be the other possibilities. I am not sure about StimAddict as there is little to go off of, but if Aqua also flips red then Stim is 100% confirmed Town. If Alakaslam is scum then it is more difficult: I don't want to answer this right now. I need to get a coffee and mull over it. I was not lying at the time. I was very hasty and generally not thinking straight. Within minutes of posting it I realised that it was false. Regardless of the flip, I will not be gunning for Aqua. If Onegu flips scum then Aqua looks scummy based on the voting pattern of both days. Onegu basically collapsed the wagon on Aqua, and then Aqua made the case that saved Onegu. However, for the rest of the game Aqua looks town to me. The reasoning for his voting seems town on both days. He has also been useful. And for a 24 hour period he seemed to be thinking the same things that I was. Therefore, if Alakaslam flips town I will be looking at Aqua, but I wont assume him scum. | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:49 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Public Service Announcement: Reminder to all Town: a mislynch is not the end of the world here. It's important that we to follow through on this plan and not fall into despair or go rage afk. A mislynch is a real possibility, but if 'Slam does flip town, we have a lot of clear evidence (and the names of two mafia members) to actually help us make up ground. Lynching those two will get us to the endgame with a nice 2-on-1 shot of winning this thing. Did you write this before or after my above post? | ||
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At the end of the day, Aqua (and to a lesser extent Spicy) have made respectable cases on Alakaslam. The case on Onegu feels better, but when you actually think about it it boils down to pre-flip associations + strange timing on the claim. | ||
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On June 29 2013 09:39 StiMaDDict wrote: And Alak didn't get roleblocked? I'm guessing he said he tracked Onegu? How did you get to anything about Alak being roleblocked? | ||
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How did you get from On June 29 2013 09:20 StiMaDDict wrote: Edit: when I said he himself, I meant Onegu claimed that he visited Alak. To On June 29 2013 09:39 StiMaDDict wrote: And Alak didn't get roleblocked? I'm guessing he said he tracked Onegu? That bit about roleblock? | ||
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It sounds like you do not believe Onegu's claim? | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:13 StiMaDDict wrote: hzflank, could you help me a bit here? Did Onegu actually claimed Watcher? It could've been that he tracked Hurricane to Alak. Things we know: Onegu claimed Watcher. Alakaslam counter-claimed Tracker. | ||
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So when Onegu flips red, who else is scum? | ||
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Alakaslam flips red: Who else is scum? | ||
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Alakaslam flips red then: Onegu is town LoneMeow is town Aquanim is town Spicy is town Hurricane is town | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:41 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Also, I do not find this accurate. You can compare lists once StiM posts his vote. Once Stim has voted, please tell me where I am going wrong with this. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:46 Aquanim wrote: You were voting for Alakaslam before. What changed your mind? If Alakaslam is scum then the only possible 3 man scum team is Alaka, Firm and Stim. If I can convince you that I am town then we win. Therefore, we have nothing to lose by mislynching Onegu, but a lot to lose by mislynching Alakaslam. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:49 Aquanim wrote: WHAT? SCUM WON'T NECESSARILY ALL BE VOTING FOR THE TOWNIE HERE WTF Look at when the votes went down. LoneMeow dropped the important 5th vote. You made the important case. The read on Hurricane is independent of is vote. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:52 Aquanim wrote: LoneMeow voted for Alakaslam FIRST He just decided to vote again, god knows why He voted before the claims, then unvoted when the claims occurred. Then voted again later. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:53 FirmTofu wrote: It's funny that Hurricane considers Aqua scum in 3 of the 4 scenarios. I think Hurricane is wrong in at least one of those 3. | ||
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Forum fail. Votes went on in this order: Aqua Onegu hzflank Spicy LoneMeow Then hzflank unvotes, and Hurricane votes. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:04 FirmTofu wrote: No matter what, tomorrow we lynch Onegu. The question is, who do we lynch the following day? Firm, let Hurricane and Aqua go at it. We need to see them as only one of them (at most) is scum. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:05 FirmTofu wrote: No. I am not going to vote Aquanim unless you make an extraordinary case against him. Spicy is my top read for too many reasons to count. We should be lynching him after Onegu. Don't defend Aqua. i want Hurricane to attack him. And when he is finished I may just have a go myself. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote: StiM cast a crucial vote against Onegu. If you're still suspecting him, you're obviously not analyzing from a pro-town perspective. Exactly. When I dropped that 4th vote on Onegu I was half-expecting Aqua or Hurricane to drop the hammer. Stim could not of know that they would not do this. Stim is likely town. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:20 Aquanim wrote: If the remaining townies can't tell that I'm town we're going to lose. Then why did you push so hard to lynch Alakaslam? You must of played out endgame scenarios. | ||
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Because less than an hour ago I was quizzing Stim because he mentioned roleblock claims. The next post was a 'public service announcement' from Hurricane. I thought that if Hurricane was town he realized why I asked and was leaving a breadcrumb for me. I thought that if Aqua was town he would noticed the connection. I was waiting to see which of them switched their vote. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:31 Aquanim wrote: <facepalm> Claiming roleblocks is standard play in every TL mafia game. Check with your coach. Bad answer. If someone was roleblocked they would of contacted a coach if they needed to. You needed to know whether someone was roleblocked. Why? | ||
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On June 28 2013 21:01 Aquanim wrote: To get enough mislynches in this situation, scum have to convince us that one of the people we previously thought was town is in fact scum. The most plausible way to do this is to find a way to counter Onegu's claim, since there is still some thread sentiment against him, and without the claim FirmTofu at least has proved his desire to see Onegu lynched. You said yourself that our town list was: Aquanim, Hurricane, FirmTofu and hzflank. So, if you actually believed the above quote then you would of pushed for the four of us to work together. In the end, what you have actually done is ”convince us that one of the people we previously thought was town is in fact scum” Your case against Alakaslam did the exact same thing that you claimed the scum fake claim was trying to do. | ||
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On June 29 2013 12:13 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Onegu, Aqua, and LoneMeow. The pieces are all there. Does someone want to clue me in as to why Spicy is a suspect? Slow down. The game is not solved yet. Let's focus on finding just one more scum for now. | ||
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On June 29 2013 12:13 FirmTofu wrote: @Hurricane Again, I request you consolidate your posts. I agree with many of your points. At this moment, I am willing to vote LoneMeow 2 days from now, but I am still not convinced about Aquanim over Spicy. Explain to me Onegu's day 1 behavior voting for Aquanim. That is what is most striking to me and is a big part of why I think Aquanim is town. Onegu put his vote on Aqua early, when it was 2-2 and Aqua still had his vote available. (Lone had used his vote, but Spicy's vote was also still available). Onegu removed his vote from Aqua when it was 4-4 and there was a greater chance that the Aqua wagon would win. It was in fact Onegu's unvote that completely deflated the wagon on Aqua. | ||
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On June 29 2013 12:16 Aquanim wrote: My case against Alakaslam was intended to push for all of the townies in the thread to get behind it. My read was in fact wrong and the end result is that a townie was mislynched. As a townie, that was obviously not my intention. No. That quote contains your reason as to why the scum team would be motivated to fake claim. But if you apply that same logic to the reason why you should or should not of defended Onegu, then you should not. it is inconsistent | ||
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I honestly think that is the first good scum read I have made all day. it is not fluffy. I think he made a mistake when he posted that because a town Aqua would not of thought like that. | ||
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On June 29 2013 12:23 FirmTofu wrote: @hzflank Can you go through Aquanim's and Spicy's filter as well and give me your thoughts on both of them? @Everyone else Please state your top three scum reads at this juncture. *hint hint* Onegu should be on that list. Onegu Aquanim Spicy or LoneMeow | ||
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First good scum read I have made all game | ||
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This is because by playing out your end game scenarios you would know that if we mislynch Alakaslam while you are on the wrong wagon, then we end up in the exact same end game scenario that you claim we must avoid. Therefore, you did not believe in the reason that you gave for the motivation behind the scum's fake claim. | ||
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Yes. And I am a horrible communicator so I will try to put it another way again. Aquanim is looking at the end game scenarios. Aquanim states that the motivation behind the scum making a risky play is because we have 4 confirmed town reads. Aquanim acts in the best way to get an end game scenario where we no longer have those 4 confirmed town read. | ||
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On June 29 2013 12:58 Aquanim wrote: I think the knowledge you have now (that Alakaslam is in fact town) is warping your judgement as to whether I could have believed that case. I will leave this now and go back to it tomorrow. | ||
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You recently claimed to have a null read on Aqua. Is that still the case? Please give us as much info as you can regarding your read on Aqua. | ||
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On June 30 2013 01:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Also forgot to add something. He had a scum read on aqua d1...and then aqua has a huge post on slam is most likely scum which led to a misslynch... but he now only has a null read?? Doesnt make sense except that hes protecting him or at least not throwing him under the bus yet. Think about this again, very carefully. Do you still stand by that statement? | ||
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On June 29 2013 20:54 Spicydinosaur wrote: I didnt find his call for people to claim roleblock scummy though as its standard mafia game practice to claim (learned this lesson the hard way). Context is important. Not all games have Jailkeepers. Not all games lose two greens on day 1 and a blue on night one. We know that either Hurricane was tracked or Hurricane is Framer. We did not know that at the time, but the scum team knew it. When Aqua wanted the roleblocked claim we did not know whether or not we had a Jailkeeper, and the scum team did not know this either. Assuming that Hurricane is town: which team had the most to gain from knowing whether someone was roleblocked? The information allowed the scum team to pin down Hurricane's role (they already tracked him). They already killed a blue on night one and a JK kill on night 2 would have been the best scenario for them. Also, the scum team knew that Onegu might claim today. He could be counter claimed by a Watcher or Tracker. If a Tracker counter claimed then the scum got a 100% read on Hurricane's role. On the other hand, the information allowed the town to know that there is no roleblocker or JK in the game. What benefit did the town gain from knowing that? I swear, the second I read Aqua's Public Service Announcement I face-palmed. I did not think that Aqua was scum as he was in my town list, but I did think that he was making a mistake. | ||
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On June 30 2013 02:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote: This doesn't feel thought-through. A scenario where StiM and Aqua are both scum is unlikely. Gah I did not want this posted yet :p A case where Stim and Aqua are both scum is almost zero. | ||
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On June 30 2013 02:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Apologies. But at least this reinforces my Town read on you, for whatever that's worth. I have been thinking a lot about Mafia as this is my first game. One of the reasons we are losing if because the town players are playing Mafia very badly. We are letting the scum pretend to be bad town. We are defending scum so that they do not have to defend themselves. I am as guilty of this as anyone. However, we need to start actually playing the game if we want to win. | ||
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In addition that that: if you have a strong town read on someone then play with them. We can set people up as a team. I tried to do it yesterday with Aqua, twice. The first time it worked and we put pressure on Onegu. The second time it failed (I expected either Hurricane or Aqua to switch their vote at the last second). | ||
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On June 30 2013 02:19 Hurricane Sponge wrote: To be fair, there was a lot of Town playing as actual Bad Town this game as well... I'm hesitant to publicly team up in a 3-Man Townie squad, because that basically tells the mafia exactly how to direct their NK's. They already know how to plan their NKs. Once the night actions are closed I will tell you who is NKed tonight. Lets continue this after night actions are in. I will explain how I think certain people should play as a team on day 3 (if they are town). | ||
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On June 28 2013 20:57 hzflank wrote: Simplified: Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane has a power role Alakaslam is town Onegu is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane Can someone look at this again for me. I think that I made a mistake but I cannot figure out where. Why can Hurricane not be Mafia Framer at this point? | ||
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Onegu could be Framer. Hurricane could be scum and lying about visiting Alakaslam. Possible? (ignore reads, just look at actions). | ||
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On June 28 2013 18:22 Hurricane Sponge wrote: No one is disputing that Onegu acquired knowledge last night. By some means, he deduced something that likely happened. However, it is not just a Watcher that could have figured that out. Indeed, it is actually MORE LIKELY in this scenario for a Mafia Tracker or a Mafia Framer to figure it out! A mafia Tracker could choose to 'track' a high-profile townie for various reasons A mafia Framer would CERTAINLY choose to follow THE MOST HIGH PROFILE TOWNIE NOT BEING SHOT THAT NIGHT. (If you don't know why, we need to get you back to Mafia School. At the time actions were declared, the Parity Cop was alive. Mafia know that the Cop will check his scummiest read vs. his towniest read. The framer's play is to figure out who is most everyone's towniest read, barring the person who is getting shot that night, and pay them a visit, essentially flipping their alignment and throwing the Parity Cop off course.) Both of these situations could explain how Onegu acquired the knowledge he did, and neither situation conflicts with Alakaslam's story. If Onegu was a Framer, then Onegu would not know that Hurricane visited Alakaslam. The only way that Onegu could of known is if Onegu Framed Hurricane at the same time as another scum Tracked Hurricane. How likely is that? The only other way for Onegu to know is if Hurricane is scum. Hurricane backed up Onegu's claim by saying that he did indeed visit Alakaslam. But he did it in a non-committal way which could be seen as an attempt to leave himself an out. | ||
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Is it good play to both Track and Frame the same person in that situation? | ||
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Just 45 minutes to wait. | ||
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BTW Hurricane, we can just say it because everyone knows you claim NN. It is no secret. The thing is we cannot confirm it (no Tracker or Watcher). | ||
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On June 30 2013 09:37 Aquanim wrote: Alakaslam saw Onegu visit you, didn't he? You're not dead, so Onegu wasn't carrying scum KP. Therefore, Onegu has a scum PR. Yep. Tracker or Framer. Unless Hurricane was roleblocked. If Hurricane was roleblocked, then it might be time to claim that, but I need a minute to confirm. | ||
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Oh btw, Hurricane wont die. If I am reading this right then I am about to be shot by scum, which means that no one dies tonight. Hurricane is either lynched Day 4, or killed Night 4, and in a few minutes I will tell you why... (I love me some conspiracy, it seems) | ||
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On June 30 2013 10:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote: hz, would me claiming Roleblock yes / Roleblock no be of any importance to you? not at all. Dont claim anything. | ||
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On June 30 2013 09:03 hzflank wrote: Is it good play to both Track and Frame the same person in that situation? Why yes, yes I think that it is. It makes for a great set play. If there is an NN then the scum team can potentially convince the town to mislynch their Tracker/Watcher in exchange for the Mafia Framer. Then, when he (Onegu) flips Framer, the scum team will claim that Hurricane must be scum. It is in fact likely that a Framer and Tracker both targeted Hurricane. If you had to pick a target for this play then Hurricane would have been perfect, as his very early post was about NN policy. It would be better for the scum if they knew exactly who the NN was when making this play. Remind me who it was that made a case on day 1 that the NN should claim? Once the scum team got the results of their night actions, they knew that Hurricane was was either NN, JK or tracker. Their next play would depends on whether Hurricane was NN or a good role, so they wanted to uncover this. Remind me who it was that was so eager to know if anyone was roleblocked (inc Jailed)? Onegu claim's but does not name Hurricane. They are still fishing for Hurricane's role. Alakaslam claims Tracker. Hurricane passively claims NN. I wont go into detail, but it's obvious what their next move is if Hurricane was JK. Not relevant though. Since Hurricane is NN, the scum try to secure their day 2 mis-lynch, and they succeed. The town should all be thinking that they will night kill Hurricane Night 2, because he is confirmed town. But they will not nightkill Hurricane, they will try to nightkill me. Town lynches Onegu on day 3. Onegu flips Framer. The scum make a case against Hurricane based on the fact that Onegu flipped Framer. Afterall, what are the chances that on Night one both the Framer and the tracker targetted Hurricane? If they get the day 4 mislynch on Hurricane then they win. | ||
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Go through the pairings. Stim and Aqua cannot both be scum. Stim and Spicy are unlikely. That only leaves Stim and Lone. Apart from that Stim also voted for Onegu. | ||
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Firm and I are like polar opposites. | ||
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Give the scum some credit. They have been schooling us all game. | ||
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On June 30 2013 10:29 FirmTofu wrote: Remember that currently we have: Aquanim accusing Spicy Aquanim accusing LoneMeow Spicy accusing Stim This makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, LoneMeow, and Spicy likely. It also makes a possible scumteam of Onegu, Aqua, and LoneMeow unlikely. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Spicy has never accused LoneMeow or Onegu of anything. That is not relevant. Ignore who Aqua is accusing. If he were scum then he would also be accusing them. | ||
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On June 30 2013 10:30 FirmTofu wrote: I didn't dismiss your theory at all. I just don't think you should see a conspiracy theory as the most likely course of action for the scum team and act according to the assumption that it occurred. Occam's razor! Then Hurricane should be in 30 minutes. | ||
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Should die* | ||
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He should of been a policy lynch on day 1, but that's hindsight for you. We, as town, are now losing horribly. We may need to take risks. I do not have a confirmed read on Stim, but if it comes to it I think that it is worth risking a town read on him. Stim and Aqua cannot both be scum (I have said that before). It is possible that they are both town, though. | ||
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On June 30 2013 10:38 Aquanim wrote: Even if scum hit the Veteran they still only need one mislynch to win. The only difference is that there will be one more townie and a confirmed townie in the game, who will probably die the next night. hzflank, FirmTofu and Hurricane are the obvious shots for scum to take. They will need to take at least two shots between now and the next lynch that isn't Onegu. Why would scum not shoot someone who might be the Veteran tonight and get it over with? If they happen to shoot the Veteran they can shoot him again and kill him before he gets to directly control the next day's real lynch discussions as a confirmed townie. Good point. But it would still be much better for scum to kill the NN now while they have that information. If there is a Vig shot tonight (on Onegu) then they do not have to worry about hitting a Vet (too many power roles?). Why risk wasting a night kill when they dont have to? | ||
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On June 30 2013 10:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Honestly, I don't think they gave disproportionate consideration to there being a Vet. I know I didn't. Give them more credit. They managed to hit the cop day 1. They are thinking about their shots. | ||
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Firm was right about Onegu. However, Firm's on Onegu is made weaker is Aqua is scum. Therefore Firm is finding it hard to see Aqua as scum. Aqua has all but admitted (in the last 10 minutes) that Hurricane is not his NK target. Therefore I am out gg guys. | ||
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On June 30 2013 09:48 hzflank wrote: Sorry for spamming, I'm running a single monitor and watching MLG. This thread is good for inflating my post counter though why did I use that phrase? | ||
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On June 30 2013 10:05 hzflank wrote: If I am reading this right then I am about to be shot by scum, which means that no one dies tonight. And that is what you should of countered. | ||
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##Vote:Onegu | ||
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On June 30 2013 11:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote: It sets a bad precedent. I know I wouldn't appreciate it if I were scum. They're going to want (and deserve) a fair shot at trying to turn this game around. I agree that it was a bad idea. But..turn this game around? We have lost 2 green and 2 blues, we have 1 confirmed red but they get another chance for NK after we lynch him. The scum are winning by a very large margin. | ||
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On June 30 2013 11:59 Onegu wrote: Just a thought you guys are in lylo now anyway so what does killing me acomplish today other than giving another NK out? We need to know your role. If you are Tracker then Hurricane is 100% confirmed town NN. | ||
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Unless you tracked your team mate on night one, but I will in no way ever consider that when it comes to voting. | ||
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On June 30 2013 14:14 Onegu wrote: Theoriticly what does this acomplish? If I am goon or framer it means zero, and if I am tracker he will most likely be NK as a confirmed town. This does nothing doesnt where my vote go give you more info? You are not a goon. It was most likely NK as confirmed town previously, but it did not happen. We have to know for sure. | ||
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On June 30 2013 21:03 Spicydinosaur wrote: ##vote onegu Can someone point out why my stim aqua connection is off? Is it because they voted each other? Day 1: Stim votes for Aqua, making it 4-4 (or possible 3 on Xz 4 on Aqua) at a time when it was very possible tat Aqua would be lynched. | ||
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On June 30 2013 22:58 Spicydinosaur wrote: and isnt that when onegu moved his vote off unexpectedly so aqua was no longer in danger. Yes. There were some people pressuring Onegu to move his vote, but those people are all confirmed town. | ||
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On June 29 2013 08:04 Spicydinosaur wrote: Got a list as well, though i have a feeling its not going to line up with yours. I'm still hoping that 'slam is scum and that the vote was overwhelming because of bussing. Would make this figuring out a lot easier. As for stim, im more looking forward to his explanation of the vote rather than the vote itself. Town or scum can easily be seen on either side, especially with the votes the way they are. Spicy, defend thyself. | ||
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What's your list? Why don't you think that it will line up with Hurricane's? Why do you not care about Stim's vote? I withheld my vote because seeing where Stim put his vote is an absolutely vital piece of information. | ||
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I really wish everyone would take a hard look at how people voted day 2 The important thing is the timing of votes in relation to other people's votes. | ||
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On July 01 2013 00:54 Hurricane Sponge wrote: EBWOP: Wow, the mafia team really pops out at you when you do that. Nothing is confirmed, though. In theory any of us could be scum. There's just a couple of things we need to know to solve it, but we obviously cannot afford a mis-lynch to get that information. Therefore, we need people to post their thoughts (on anything and everything). I know this is not the most helpful thing, but I would rather not actually have to ask the question(s?) that I have, as if people happen to give up that information freely then we can solve it. So talk people. Ask me anything, if it helps. I am reserving the right to not answer certain questions, though. | ||
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Do you want to win this game? | ||
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In reality though, the best information is in the very first line. On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote: I believe hzflank is scum. | ||
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On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote: I believe hzflank is scum. During day 1, he repeatedly claims he thinks Xzavier is town, yet ends up voting for him anyway with a relatively weak reasoning ("more likely to produce information" - you don't lynch for information if you have a scum read). Also switches his vote around quite a few times and plays the noob defense before anyone even accuses him of anything. I did not have a good scum read. Why should I? How could you even expect my day 1 reads to be any good? In reality, I was the person who tried the hardest to move the wagon off of Xz. By the time I placed my vote it had already been decided and there was no town cred to be gained. On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote: I can't see any town motivation for claiming fyfy's flip being a bonus. Losing an extra player by essentially RNG during day 1 is horrible for town, and in this case it was even worse as fyfy had practically no association with any of the players so his flip did not give any useful information. Almost like a slip, if you ask me. Fyfy was almost a lurker. Once there was no counter-wagon to Xz, we were in a position where we would have been better off just policy voting a lurker (Stim). For a time I even moved my vote to a lurker, but people on the Xz wagon stated that that would not be willing to make a last minute vote switch. I was looking forward to seeing Fyfy's flip more than I was looking forward to seeing Xz's flip. On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote: Baiting Hurricane to enter WIFOM hell. Luckily Hurricane was smart enough not to bite. It was not the best question, I admit. I wanted to know where Hurricane thought the important information was. Hurricane is not a player who needs to worry about WIFOM hell anyway, but if I had asked that question to Alakaslam it would have been particularly nasty! On June 26 2013 14:48 hzflank wrote: EBWOP To clarify: I am NOT saying that a Vig should shoot aqua. A mis-kill would be disastrous, and I am not claiming him to be scum. I was just thinking 'if this guy flipped now, what would it tell us'. And I realized that the town stands more to gain from an Aqua flip than anyone else. Aqua had the second wagon in day 1, and there is now a wagon forming on Onegu, who claims he will make his case on Aqua. On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote: His early play contains a lot of trying to appease and claiming he's sorry for being so bad. This in itself isn't necessarily very damning, but will become more important later in this case. We are not losing this game due to bad luck. If we do not look at our own play, find mistakes and try to remove them from our play then we will not only lose this game but also future games. This is a newbie game so learning should be a big part of it. On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote: During day 2 (before claims), defends Onegu and does a more or less useless vote on Stim without much reasoning. Note that a lot of his defense of Onegu is claiming to be responsible for Onegu's plight because of his bad play. Redirecting blame to himself when he's not under any suspicion at the time. After the claims he first votes Onegu, then switches to Alakaslam, while pretty much attacking and defending both speculatively. I stick by my defence of Onegu on the basis that I did not believe that his day 1 voting apathy was a strong enough scum tell to justify an early day 2 vote on him. My vote on Stim was not useless as it simultaneously put pressure on both Stim and Onegu. On June 28 2013 10:28 Aquanim wrote: (Thanks to hzflank for making the StiMaDDict wagon look convincing, btw.) On June 30 2013 02:15 hzflank wrote: EBWOP In addition that that: if you have a strong town read on someone then play with them. We can set people up as a team. I tried to do it yesterday with Aqua, twice. The first time it worked and we put pressure on Onegu. The second time it failed (I expected either Hurricane or Aqua to switch their vote at the last second). On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote: This is a gem. Forcing others to decide so he won't look bad no matter what way the flip goes. Then, once mislynch is clear, votes on Onegu to look good after the flip. There was only a small amount of town cred to gain from such a move. I voted Onegu because: On June 29 2013 10:38 hzflank wrote: Correct me if I am wrong here: Alakaslam flips red then: Onegu is town LoneMeow is town Aquanim is town Spicy is town Hurricane is town There had to be some scum on the Alakaslam wagon. Considering the order and the timing of the votes, scum did not need to bus Onegu as they could vote Alakaslam without drawing attention to themselves. On June 29 2013 10:57 hzflank wrote: Forum fail. Votes went on in this order: Aqua Onegu hzflank Spicy LoneMeow Then hzflank unvotes, and Hurricane votes. I expected Hurricane or Aqua to switch their vote after I voted. On June 29 2013 11:17 hzflank wrote: Exactly. When I dropped that 4th vote on Onegu I was half-expecting Aqua or Hurricane to drop the hammer. Stim could not of know that they would not do this. Stim is likely town. On June 29 2013 11:31 hzflank wrote: You want to know why I thought the hammer might go down on Onegu?... Because less than an hour ago I was quizzing Stim because he mentioned roleblock claims. The next post was a 'public service announcement' from Hurricane. I thought that if Hurricane was town he realized why I asked and was leaving a breadcrumb for me. I thought that if Aqua was town he would noticed the connection. I was waiting to see which of them switched their vote. On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote: Claiming veteran, before getting hit (but after starting to hint at it just a bit earlier). Why would that be a good idea? As vet, you want to be hit, and as early as possible. Now the appeasing play from earlier comes in. There's no reason for a vet to play that way. I believe he claimed vet to have a good reason why he's going to survive to LYLO. I claimed Vet after the night action deadline passed. I did so because I thought that I would be Night-killed Night 2 and that FirmTofu would be night-killed night 3. We were both confirmed town in my eyes, and Hurricane is not confirmed town until Onegu flips. I tried to hint at FirmTofu to counter-claim Vet, so that when I was night-killed and did not flip Vet, the scum would seriously consider not shooting Firm on Night 3. On June 30 2013 10:55 hzflank wrote: Also, Firm, you should have countered why did I use that phrase? Unfortunately I did not realise that scum hitting the Vet only changes the LYLO to MYLO, so it would not have been the most useful play anyway. On June 30 2013 10:38 Aquanim wrote: Even if scum hit the Veteran they still only need one mislynch to win. The only difference is that there will be one more townie and a confirmed townie in the game, who will probably die the next night. hzflank, FirmTofu and Hurricane are the obvious shots for scum to take. They will need to take at least two shots between now and the next lynch that isn't Onegu. Why would scum not shoot someone who might be the Veteran tonight and get it over with? If they happen to shoot the Veteran they can shoot him again and kill him before he gets to directly control the next day's real lynch discussions as a confirmed townie. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:05 hzflank wrote: also, one or both of LoneMeow and Spicy are scum. | ||
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The fact that I could quote myself so much in my own defense is quite amusing. | ||
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If at all possible I need you to make a day 4 case against someone. Even if you can only post by phone, I do not need to see an elaborate case. If you had to place the first vote on day 4, who would you vote for and why? | ||
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On June 29 2013 08:04 Spicydinosaur wrote: Got a list as well, though i have a feeling its not going to line up with yours. I'm still hoping that 'slam is scum and that the vote was overwhelming because of bussing. Would make this figuring out a lot easier. As for stim, im more looking forward to his explanation of the vote rather than the vote itself. Town or scum can easily be seen on either side, especially with the votes the way they are. What was your list? | ||
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On July 01 2013 22:49 Onegu wrote: Man I want a refund, you guys are doing nothing.... I'm trying, but I am having to compete with time zones and real life. Don't worry though, you will have new people to post with soon | ||
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On June 28 2013 20:25 hzflank wrote: Specifically, we need to look at why the scum chose to track Hurricane. This is important. Ah, hindsight | ||
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On June 29 2013 03:47 Spicydinosaur wrote: Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past. Of course we considered people splitting their votes. Firm was right to use this logic, because even though he ignored it day 1 it turns out that when I used this logic day 1 it was correct. It turns out that when Firm (and eventually I too) used this logic day 2 it was right. On June 29 2013 20:54 Spicydinosaur wrote: Aqua i have a null read on and will need to look into his filter a lot more. Has your read on Aqua changed since we lost Firm? | ||
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On July 02 2013 11:22 Hurricane Sponge wrote: hz, let me know how you'd like to play the night. I know which two I think are the other mafia. I'll hold off posting until we hear from StiM, Spicy, Aqua, and LoneMeow if you think that's best. I'm on the same page that you are. But there are some problems with it. Aqua has played to win. He has put a lot of effort into the game and appears to have been scum-hunting. The thing is in many ways it looks like Aqua has played to win for the wrong team. If Spicy has been scum-hunting then he has not really shared it with us (since his D1 case on you). Also, I am not sure how much attention Spicy is paying at the moment, and town should be paying attention at this crucial time. On June 29 2013 11:05 hzflank wrote: also, one or both of LoneMeow and Spicy are scum. On July 01 2013 19:37 hzflank wrote: @Spicy: If at all possible I need you to make a day 4 case against someone. Even if you can only post by phone, I do not need to see an elaborate case. If you had to place the first vote on day 4, who would you vote for and why? I think that Spicy should of just said that LoneMeow was scum. | ||
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On June 28 2013 18:16 hzflank wrote: The biggest reason why I think that Hurricane is town is because when I scumhunt on him I feel like he is also scumhunting on me. When I look at some other people is has looked like when they scumhunt on me they are actually looking for a scapegoat. If Hurricane made a case against me on Day 3 I would make a case against a third party. If Hurricane thinks that I am scum that does not mean that I think he is scum. In fact in my case, it almost seems that Hurricane is the only person who is actually scumhunting in my direction. | ||
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On July 01 2013 19:20 hzflank wrote: Another thing: The fact that I could quote myself so much in my own defense is quite amusing. Also, I did not post that without reason. LoneMeow could of got answers to most of his questions but spending 15 minutes reading my filter. LoneMeow is scum. And therefore, Spicy is not even considering his endgame scenarios, even though he told us to look at relationships. | ||
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On July 02 2013 17:43 LoneMeow wrote: But it was, as pointed out earlier, a safe vote anyway, so I wouldn't completely discount it as a town cred vote. It was not safe. I was withholding my vote. Hurricane and Aqua were both online at the time. Also, Stim was confused about the whole Alaka/Onegu thing. I got the impression that he had not been reading the scum QT, and therefore is not scum. Finally, we have almost nothing to look at the confirm that Stim is scum. If we plan to lynch Stim then we are flipping a coin, and worse than that I think the coin is stacked to give us <50% chance of success. | ||
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Even if you think Stim is scum (which I disagree with), he should not be a lynch candidate until day 5. | ||
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On July 02 2013 17:43 LoneMeow wrote: Analyzing the associations between players: Hurricane - good as confirmed town based on Onegu's flip Aquanim - not likely Stim - possible SpicyDinosaur - possible, even likely? So I'd say probably SpicyDinosaur, possibly Stim. @Aqua, what do you think of this post by LoneMeow? | ||
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In my opinion it would be useful for everyone if you could withhold your day 4 votes until the other 4 players have voted. I will explain why after everyone has voted. | ||
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You have not done so. If you had then you would never of made that case against me. You picked me as a target and then tried to make a case, when a town player should do it the other way around. You did not even thoroughly read my filter before you made your case. You slipped up. | ||
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If LoneMeow were town he should of realized that and waited for a scum to make the day 4 case against me. But he is not town, he is the scum player who wants a day 4 wagon on me to ensure that at least one town player has a wagon on them. It gives the scum team an extra chance to win. | ||
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If LoneMeow were town he should suspect that Spicy and Aqua are probably but scum. If you read the thread and/or Aqua's filter, it looks a lot like Aqua would make a day 4 case against Spicy. If LoneMeow were town, all he had to do was make a case against Aqua and the day 4 wagons would likely both of been on scum. Making a case on Spicy would be the second best option, but not as good as Aqua. Making a case against me was the absolute worst thing that a town LoneMeow could do. | ||
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probably both scum | ||
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You die tonight. LoneMeow is scum. If we lynch LoneMeow day 4 then I die night 4. Day 5 is the 2-1 LYLO with Aqua, Spicy and Stim. I am not sure of who the last scum is as I believe that there are still two options. That seems like a very random situation. Regardless of who is scum, Aqua votes for Spicy. We have no idea of who Spicy and Stim will vote for. Spicy and Stim might even vote for each other, which gives the town even less chance to win. So, I am debating the merits of putting this stagnant game out of it's misery. If we can decide on who is the most likely scum (other than LoneMeow) then I could push for their lynch day 4. If we are wrong then we lose, and if we are right then LoneMeow will probably just concede. I have read Aqua's filter thoroughly, and Spicy's twice thoroughly. I am going to look for some clues in LoneMeow's filter and then read parts of the thread. If you come across anything that confirms Aqua as town or scum, please let me know. | ||
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On July 02 2013 19:57 Aquanim wrote: The thing which bothers me about LoneMeow's case on you (hzflank) as a scum move is that I don't see how scum could reasonably expect to lynch you at this point... and furthermore, they don't have to. Scum only need one mislynch to win and there's plenty of easier lynchbait. It does have the advantage that he hasn't had to say anything much about the more likely lynches, though. I have already posted this, but my I think it makes sense for a scum LoneMeow to make a case on me. They have to nightkill me Night 4 anyway. If they attempt a mislynch and it fails then they ideally want to nightkill the person that they attempted to mislynch. Also, as you aluded to, what we needed to see was LoneMeow's reads on other people, but he has deliberately avoided answering the important questions. | ||
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On July 02 2013 19:57 Aquanim wrote: What is the plan of scum likely to be at the moment? I have been thinking about this a lot. I do not think it is beneficial to fully reveal and explain my answers at this time. | ||
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Considering the bad position that the town is in, can you explain to me the benefit of even looking at the game as though there is a reasonable chance of Stim being scum? | ||
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Stim might be up to page 2 on his filter now, but there is still nothing there that makes him look scummy. If I flip town or you flip scum, then it is very likely that Stim is town (imo). But you cannot afford to see me flip town before the Night 4 kill, and you obviously know your own alignment. | ||
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On July 01 2013 11:59 StiMaDDict wrote: I think it is safe to say that LoneMeow is probably a scum, but then again I had a terrible experience from the last game so yeah.. Also it would be hypocritical to call him a lurker because I been lurking all game. As for Spicy, I can't really tell if he is or he is not a scum, because he is playing a very much thought out and careful game. There is nothing solid of evidence that I can point to as a proof. I will this though, in the last game he played an excellent townie but I'm not getting that same feel in this game. Can elaborate further if you request. As for Aquanim, only looking at votes, cases and interactions, he is a scum. He voted for Xzavier and Alakslam. He has a bizzare relationship with LoneMeow. However he fucking talks a lot and he has strong opinions. So that's that.. Please elaborate as much as you can on everything. Don't be scared of making mistakes at this point. If you are town then you should be playing to win. If you want to win as town then we need you to post as much as you can. I need to try to get inside your head. | ||
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On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote: Case on stim. d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there. This makes no sense. A scum Stim would not want to bus a scum Aqua on day 1. Stim does not post much and therefore is not a hugely influential player. Aqua was getting stuck in on day 1 and was already putting himself in a position to influence the game. The non-influential scum would not bus the influential scum like that. I do not understand why a town Spicy is focusing on Stim at this point, and not focusing on anyone else. Even if Stim is scum (and Spicy is town) then the town can only win by lynching him on day 5, because I will be around for the day 4 voting and I am highly unlikely to vote for Stim. The only possible day 4 lynch on Stim is a mis-lynch. You are probably wondering why I have been defending Stim so much. We had bad luck with the day 1 modkill and then had a night 1 cop kill. We mislynched our tracker on day 2. We found ourselves in a 4-3 LYLO with no useful power roles. I want to win the game and based on the reads I have I need Stim to be town in order to win the game. Therefore, I have been trying to cultivate a town-town relationship with Stim to increase our chances of winning the game. I have not been hiding this, my thoughts about Stim have been out in the open for a long time now. | ||
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If we were both scum then I would not need to defend Stim at all. I could make a case on either LoneMeow or Spicy and have a pretty good chance of getting Aqua to vote with me. Then Stim shows up with the usual late vote on my target and the scum team (Stim and I) win the game. It would be bad scum play for me to defend Stim if we were both scum. | ||
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I need you to elaborate on LoneMeow vs me. | ||
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On July 02 2013 22:18 Spicydinosaur wrote: at this point in the game i wouldnt be suprised if there was a busing or cross claims of being scum. Only 1 mislynch is needed so there could be a busing d4 for town cred to get a mislynch the following day. As I said, we would not need to bus anyone. LoneMeow already posted a case against me. I could of just returned the favour. A town Aqua would of voted with me. That would of just been an easy win. | ||
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On July 02 2013 19:57 Aquanim wrote: The thing which bothers me about LoneMeow's case on you (hzflank) as a scum move is that I don't see how scum could reasonably expect to lynch you at this point... and furthermore, they don't have to. Scum only need one mislynch to win and there's plenty of easier lynchbait. It does have the advantage that he hasn't had to say anything much about the more likely lynches, though. How can Lone's case on me possibly be a town move? Even if he actually thinks I am scum then he should of planned to lynch me on day 5. If I am scum, how does a town Lone expect to lynch me day 4? I do not think that a town Lone could possibly of made that move. On July 02 2013 22:46 Spicydinosaur wrote: Just from reading the above i dont see a lone/aqua team Maybe I am tunnelling too much, but I know Hurricane (confirmed town) thinks that the scum team is Aqua/Lone. I am confident that Firm (confirmed town) thinks that Spicy/Lone is the scum team. I think that either Aqua/Lone or Spicy/Lone is the scum team, and I have made this clear enough recently (even before Lone's case). I am genuinely surprised that Spicy does not think that Aqua/Lone is the scum team. | ||
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On July 02 2013 23:24 Spicydinosaur wrote: Its the voting on d2 that doesnt make me think aqua/lone team. Lone completely sheeps aqua on the slam vote and once slam flipped, both would look extremely bad. The more likely scenario is one of them was scum and other is town that just piggybacked. I really liked the aqua/stim team over the weekend, but lone's case makes 0 sense to me as it feels like he is just posted on a townie so he doesnt have to make a case on his scum buddy. Im still liking stim as a lynch because of his late d2 posts but lone is seriously making me wonder what he is doing. Do you realize that to beat a Lone/Stim we have to lynch Stim on day 4? If we lynch Lone then day 5 is Aqua, Spicy and Stim. Do you think Stim will get lynched in that scenario? | ||
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On July 02 2013 23:36 Aquanim wrote: Look, if you think Stim is scum make an argument for it and I'll listen. I'm not so tunneled on Spicy that I won't listen to reason. I don't think that Stim is scum. If we are serious about voting on Stim then I believe the correct play would be to give him an ultimatum now, so policy lynch if he refuses to cooperate. We cannot get the info we need on Stim because he does not let us do so. To me it is either ultimatum > policy lynch or Stim is town. | ||
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On July 02 2013 23:35 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hz, look at stim's posts on d2 when he joins the discussion on onegu/slam. To me they dont feel genuine and just act like he's asking obvious questions to look confused on the issue and thus now active in the discussion. Then with the way the votes go, a mislynch is inevitable, so he votes against it for town cred. Do you feel his conversation there was genuine or am i just being extremely paranoid? I feel that it was genuine. I do not think Stim spends a lot of time reading the game. His MO seems to be to just pop in every 3 days, read for 30 minutes and make a vote. I think he was confused, and if he had access to scum QT he would not of been confused. | ||
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On July 02 2013 23:44 Spicydinosaur wrote: Im saying the confusion was faked, and he knew what was going on, either through actually reading the thread or scum qt. He acted confused to look like hes active in the discussion and then parked his vote against the wagon. I do not agree. I cannot see which part could not be genuine. It could be fake, but I see no evidence of that. Also, he could of jumped on the wagon without looking scummy. There was nothing for a scum Stim to gain from voting for Onegu, but there was still some chance that Onegu would be lynched if he did. The vote did end up 5-4 (we have said all this before). | ||
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If Stim is scum then screw it. This forum mafia game is stupid if scum can so easily win just by lurking. However, if Aqua/Spicy is scum then they are legitimately beating me. | ||
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I feel like all of the Stim talk had just distracted me. Lone posted something meaty to dig into. Alternatively, I have been spamming up the thread if you want to go that route. Focusing on Stim is not going to achieve anything more. | ||
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On July 03 2013 01:37 Spicydinosaur wrote: Id like lone to show what associations between you and i make us scum team. And also what connections u and stim (his second pick after me) have to be scum. Exactly. He deliberately avoided implicating his partner. I am a bit biased here so, Can you see why a town Lone would of done what he did? | ||
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On June 24 2013 12:52 Onegu wrote: You have to remember scum have a tracker | ||
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Saying that Stim is the best lurker to vote for on day 1? On June 24 2013 16:59 Onegu wrote: It is better to vote for lurkers who have posted one time and stopped then to vote for someone who hasnt posted anything because they will most likely get replaced or modkilled. Don't analyse Spicy's meta? On June 25 2013 01:05 Onegu wrote: It is bad to connect meta on noobs because depending on what worked one game and what didnt work they will change how they play Says I am town 3 times when I was pressing Firm/Chrom/Aqua (will only quote one): On June 25 2013 01:57 Onegu wrote: Town at this point he doesnt have many posts but what he does post are scum hunts and his view on the NN idea, not much fluff amd not any sheeping. Trying to move the conversation away from Spicy being scum? On June 25 2013 12:14 Onegu wrote: Just want to put this out there, if you think spicy is scum fine, but please dont blue hunt, and if you do blue hunt dont post who you think is blue all that does is help scum not town. Yeah...Xzavier is not going to flip scum On June 26 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote: To be honest I dont care who is killed if Xzavier flips town my vote will go on aquanim and if he flips scum I will vote Spicydinosaur. My current read on Xzavier is null with scum reads on alakaslam and aqua. With every post Alakaslam makes he looks more and more like noob scum to me. Don't vote for Stim: On June 26 2013 02:21 Onegu wrote: And stim played this exact way last noob game and was VT, I see him as VT this game and his lynch acomplishes nothing. First mention of LoneMeow, although very non-commital: On June 27 2013 00:47 Onegu wrote: I still feel he is scum but I cannot prove it at this point, my thought process was if xzavier flipped scum to lead a bandwaggon on him but that isnt possible it is looking like. My scum team is Aqua Firm And either Alakaslam or lonemeow as the third leaning more toward alakaslam as the third. Is trying to make a case on Aqua for the sake of it? On June 27 2013 02:59 Onegu wrote: I had no qualms about voteing aqua and was planning on voteing him today until the firmtofu case came up. As I said it didnt matter to me who was killed because I had a scum read on Aqua and a null read on xzavier but depending on how he fliped would focus my day 2 targets, I have said all along I want to lynch Aqua and still do. I cannot make a good case on him but I am trying and keep looking things over. But saying I didnt vote him because I am scum buddies is dumb, If not tofu today and it is between anyone and aqua my vote will go on aqua. But at this point firmtofu I can make a much stronger case on him. Still think's Aqua is scum... On June 27 2013 14:40 Onegu wrote: No I am just looking for more reads. Firm aqua are my first 2 reads, my third read is still on alakaslam but isnt as strong as the first 2 And still......has a scum read on Aqua On June 28 2013 01:38 Onegu wrote: Actually yes I dont mind which of you is lynched as I have strong scum reads on both of you. First time that he actually mentions Spicy? On June 29 2013 01:33 Onegu wrote: Hz thought he confirmed it I thought he confimed it and spicy thought he confirmed it, he used some really round about ways talking about it. Town read on me still? On June 29 2013 03:04 Onegu wrote: I had a null to slight town read on him, I only comented on the case on him to say it was illogical but the points on aqua were good points. I had very little interaction with him at all. This one requires a lot more analysing. At a guess, I would say it makes Aqua more likely town. Not sure what else. On June 29 2013 03:30 Onegu wrote: Scum reads: Alakaslam FirmTofu And either Lonemeow or Stim Null reads Aqua, I still want to say he is scum but he is my main defender so I do not know. Townreads Hz Hurricane Spicy If I am lynched today you have to lynch Alakaslam first as he will be confirmed scum, second look at the liar who has lied to people 2 times now to get the vote he wants, then you have to decide between stim, lone and aqua useing your best ability and who is still alive after night kills. | ||
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But you're alive! | ||
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I am actually starting to think that I have got this all very wrong and that both the lurkers are scum. How on earth am I going to prove them town? | ||
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There are 2 scum. Your options are: hzflank, Aquanim, SpicyDinosaur and LoneMeow. Who are your picks? | ||
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On July 03 2013 05:43 StiMaDDict wrote: Then why the fuck did he ask me whether he should claim or not... *making me look stupid and shit *grumble *grumble He wanted to know if you think he should claim. In reality he did not need to as it was possible for us all to work it out by ourselves (all the pieces of the puzzle were there). | ||
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Why Spicy? | ||
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I need to sleep soon so I wont be on for the end of the night phase. I assume that you will be night killed. Leave me any opinions that you have if you like. I think it highly likely that LoneMeow is scum who took the easy way out because he did not want to risk implicating his partner. I have noticed the ties between Lone and Aqua (as you did). I am not 100% convinced on Aqua though, but have not put in the time to fully go over all of the conversation between Aqua and Onegu. | ||
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On July 03 2013 11:21 Aquanim wrote: GG Hurricane, it's been fun. @hzflank, I'm pretty sure I have a better townread on you than you do on me so I'm willing to let you call the shots. Of Spicy and LoneMeow, I think LoneMeow is probably the safer lynch as far as today goes - but I think it might be easier to get StiM on-side to lynch Spicy while you're still alive. If you're scum you've outplayed me and if StiM's scum I guess I'll just be pissed off. Although I just had a nasty thought... - StiM thought that Onegu was a tracker - Onegu was in fact a (scum) tracker Do you think that could have been a scumslip? Does it matter if we lose today or tomorrow? I would prefer to finish it today, while I have some direct input. As long as no one disagrees. I will re-read the Stim stuff, but I suspect it is just due to the way Stim was catching up with the thread. | ||
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Okay. So for the last few days I have been trying to decided between Aqua and Spicy. The reason for this is that Aqua was the biggest driving force behind the Alakaslam mis-lynch, yet Spicy hopped on board casually and I just cannot get a good town on Spicy. In terms of where votes ended up (and their timing), neither Aqua or Spicy are more scummy than the other. The big voting thing that makes Aqua look more scummy is the timing of Onegu's unvote on day 1. However, betting everything based on the actions of confirmed scum is not a good idea. One of the most interesting parts of the game is the back and forth between Aqua and Onegu on late day 1 and early day 2. Is it scum-town or scum-scum? I think it is scum-town. Additionally, when you read this part of the thread Spicy makes posts that could either be scum or town (Tries to further explore a wagon on Firm, it goes no where so he lays groundwork for a possible wagon on Alakaslam). It looks like Chromatically suspected Spicy as scum. Obviously we know that Firm and now Hurricane suspected him. Aqua also had suspicions, and so do I. That is 4 confirmed town a 1 50/50 who have though Spicy scum for a long time, and three of them were night-killed. In particulat, Chromatically was killed while his top 2 scum reads seemed to be Onegu and Spicy (before the action deadline). As I continue to read, Onegu is really scrambling to avoid being lynched. At the time I did not realise that he was feeling the pressure that much. Anyway, he is still willing to lynch Aqua to save himself. That's a pretty bad scum-scum move imo, since even if he got a lynch on scum-Aqua, the scum team were in a worse position than they started in. Spicy repeatedly tries to remove pressure from Onegu, without applying any. Spicy is more experienced than me, yet even I applied some pressure as well as relieving some. LoneMeow makes a scummy appearance. Then Onegu claims. | ||
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On the whole, Aqua has played a good town game (or a good scum game). There are many things in Aqua's filter that scream Town at me. Spicy appears to have played a much better scum game than town game. There is just nothing in Spicy's filter that gives me a strong town read. On June 27 2013 10:18 Aquanim wrote: The point was made early in the thread that Spicy was playing defensively. I would rather term his play as "reactive". That is spot on. And when combined with: On July 02 2013 17:36 hzflank wrote: To conclude: I have been trying to lead a horse to the water, but since it refuses to drink I am now wondering if it is in fact a trojan horse. I cannot get into the head of a town-Spicy at all. I feel like I spent a long time screaming at Spicy to look at the Aqua-Lone scenario, but he refused to do so. He was focussed on the highly unlikely Aqua-Stim. Aqua did what you could call defending Lone in the early game. At the very least Aqua left connections between himself and Lone before Lone looked overly scummy. Spicy did not say a great deal about the non-scummy Lone, but once Lone was in a scum position Spicy refused to talk about the possibility of Lone being scum. If I were town in Spicy's position then I would have been attacking Aqua hard, and I would not brought Stim into it at all. I believe that Spicy was given every chance to solve the game in the case of an Aqua-Lone scum team, but he could not see it because Spicy is not looking at the game from a town point of view. From a scum point of view, Spicy did not see the need to bus Lone until it was too late. I realise that there are other possibilities such as Spicy-Aqua or the mysterious Stim. However, I really have spent far too much time on this game already. We cannot be 100% certain that I am correct, in fact we cannot even get close to certainty, but at some point we have to go for it and try to win. Aqua, if you are scum then well played, Sir. Stim, if you are scum then I am voting for you every single day in future games that I have with you. I am ready to vote for Spicy and follow up with a day 5 lynch on Lone. | ||
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Thank you to everyone involved in the game. It was new to me and I have certainly learned a lot. | ||
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On July 03 2013 22:39 StiMaDDict wrote: Whether your time spent in this game was worth or not, we shall soon see. Also sorry for playing a bad town but you won't have to vote me in the future. GG WP to you, sir. ##Vote: Spicydinosaur Any other way would of been boring anyway. We want to have to come back from a 4-3 LYLO after a day 1 mod-kill where we also mis-lynch, then have our cop killed night one and mis-lynch our only other power role day 2. | ||
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On July 03 2013 23:53 Spicydinosaur wrote: Lone didnt move up on my scum radar till he posted the case on you which i immediately stated i didnt like. This is the problem. We were down to 5 players for the last 72 hours (Onegu and Hurricane did not count). Apart from yourself that is only 4 other players. If you were town then all 4 of them would have been on your scum radar. But you did not pro-actively scum hunt. You have played reactive to everything. On July 03 2013 23:53 Spicydinosaur wrote: As most others think stim is town im voting for my second scum pick of aqua. Regardless of whether you are town or scum that statement should not be true. You should be voting for Aqua because that was your only realistic chance of winning the game. It does not matter whether he is your first, second or seventy-seventh scum pick. | ||
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If I did not look at Aqua then I would be voting for him, for obvious reasons. I'm sorry, but your posts have made me more confident that my vote is already in the correct place. | ||
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hzflank
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Lone's vote makes me think that I made the wrong choice, but that's WIFOM. I hope people will forgive me if I lose this. I (or we) really needed to play better on day 1 or 2. If we still had two chances I would be confident, but one is not enough. I expect that I have missed something obvious and that people in obs chat think I am dumb. But that's that, I tried. gg. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
gg Spicy. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
You guys have no idea at how close I was at lynching Aqua. I had Lone firmly in my scum camp after Alakaslam's flip, but thought that Aqua was the other scum. I was probably around 90% Aqua and 10% Spicy. Then over the next 72 hours or so it very slowly shifted to 60% Spicy 40% Aqua. If Spicy had gone after Aqua and/or Lone and mostly kept Stim out of it I would probably still thought that Spicy was town. There are a surprising amount of coincidences in this thread that made it look like Aqua/Lone. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
Well played everyone. I don't know if I dare read the obs chat, but it may be hard to resist. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
/flex | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
What did you think of my idea for a scum play? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=83#1656 | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
Regarding the claims on day 2 leading to the Alakaslam lynch: What do you think about the way that Alakaslam counter claimed? He did not counter and call Onegu scum. Alakaslam accidentally counter claimed and came to the conclusion that it meant both Onegu and he were town. With that in mind, is it still more likely that the person who made the original claim is scum? | ||
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