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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
By the process of elimination, it cannot be Alakaslam, me, or Aquanim because he has stated his suspicions for all of us. It cannot be LoneMeow or StiM because a lurker cannot be rational person's strongest town read. It probably isn't Hurricane because Hurricane is currently pushing a strong case against him. The only players left are Spicy and hzflank. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 08:32 FirmTofu wrote: I believe his "strongest town read" is hzflank or Spicy By the process of elimination, it cannot be Alakaslam, me, or Aquanim because he has stated his suspicions for all of us. It cannot be LoneMeow or StiM because a lurker cannot be rational person's strongest town read. It probably isn't Hurricane because Hurricane is currently pushing a strong case against him. The only players left are Spicy and hzflank. I'd really prefer not to speculate about it. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
He refuses to say which of the two, but it is very easy to narrow down for any observer. What purpose did it serve to keep town in the dark? Either hzflank or Spicy needs to confirm what Onegu is saying about them, otherwise an Onegu lynch remains inevitable. Even if hzflank or Spicy confirm, we have to consider that they may be in a mafia team together. We will need to gather evidence for and against this and analyze it with the information we have at our disposal. It could also be the case that Onegu is a mafia tracker who tracked a town hzflank or Spicy to Alakaslam's house. We would also have to find evidence to refute this possibility. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I'm only stating the obvious. Any mafia team could easily deduce the same conclusion. We shouldn't be silent just because you think a mafia team might use our reasoning against us. We need to be talking and analyzing this claim. Lets go!!! | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 08:41 Aquanim wrote: By the way, FirmTofu, my reply to your case is a little redundant now that Onegu has claimed - do you still want to see it? Nothing is redundant. Please show it. | ||
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Spicydinosaur
United States382 Posts
On June 28 2013 08:44 FirmTofu wrote: He is claiming that either Spicy or hzflank is a blue town role that visited Alakaslam last right. He refuses to say which of the two, but it is very easy to narrow down for any observer. What purpose did it serve to keep town in the dark? Either hzflank or Spicy needs to confirm what Onegu is saying about them, otherwise an Onegu lynch remains inevitable. Even if hzflank or Spicy confirm, we have to consider that they may be in a mafia team together. We will need to gather evidence for and against this and analyze it with the information we have at our disposal. It could also be the case that Onegu is a mafia tracker who tracked a town hzflank or Spicy to Alakaslam's house. We would also have to find evidence to refute this possibility. Kinda hypocritical of you right there? On June 28 2013 03:57 FirmTofu wrote: I would just like to say that I have moved you and Alakaslam onto my town list. I will expand on this during night. Right now, I want to focus on getting the lynch on Onegu through. I sincerely hope we can count on your vote. More information is better for town. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Onegu (1): FirmTofu (1): Onegu Alakaslam (1): LoneMeow StiMaDDict (2): Aquanim, hzflank Not Voting: Alakaslam, StiMaDDict, Spicydinosaur, Hurricane Sponge If I screwed up somewhere, let me know! As of now, StiMaDDict is set to be rocketed into the sun by lazors and giant robots. Day 2 ends in [unparsable timestamp format] | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
Here it is. + Show Spoiler + I'll go through FirmTofu's case point by point. + Show Spoiler + On June 27 2013 20:43 FirmTofu wrote: FirmTofu's Case Against Onegu Point #1: Onegu seems to be looking for reasons to vote me that he doesn't necessarily even agree with. Example: Onegu initially states that meta is bad and you should "stop trying to meta peoples play." Then, when he wants to make a case against me, he uses my failure to use meta as an excuse to call me scummy. It seems like Onegu has differing views on meta depending on when it is convenient for him to think one way or another. Inconsistency can be a sign that a player is not seriously analysing the thread, which reflects a scum-mentality. However, I don't think Onegu is being inconsistent with his views on meta here. The first of Onegu's posts quoted here is saying that Onegu thinks that we should not use meta. This post isn't particularly useful but not all posts are. The second of Onegu's posts is observing that FirmTofu's post (which also states that we shouldn't use meta) does not contain a particularly good reason for not using meta. And to be honest, I partially agree with him. While it's a legitimate view for FirmTofu to hold, just because something is "boring" doesn't mean it's a bad idea. Onegu's post does NOT say that he disagrees with FirmTofu about whether meta should be used, only with the argument which FirmTofu used. Summary: I see no contradiction here. In fact, observing that someone whose opinion you agree with has nevertheless justified that opinion poorly indicates a reasonable level of analysis to me. + Show Spoiler + Point #2: Onegu switched his vote from Aquanim to Alakaslam rather arbitrarily, suggesting that he knew Aquanim would flip town and everyone would blame him, so he moved to his "second best" scum read. Example: Here we see Onegu buiding a case for Aquanim and establishing that he believes Alakaslam is "noob scum" and is a lower priority lynch to Aquanim. I have bolded all relevant areas. Then, as soon as he is pressured, he backs away from Aquanim. CONTEXT! At this point, removing his vote caused the tiebreak scenario between the lynch of Xzavier and the lynch of Aquanim to be lifted. In essence, this move sealed Xzavier's fate and saved Aquanim from being a probable lynch. This ensured that Onegu would not look suspicious post-lynch because he wouldn't be responsible for the death of a townie. The explanation that Onegu jumped from voting me to Alakaslam because he didn't want to take responsibility for my lynch is plausible. However, I also think it's plausible that Onegu, as town, reassessed his case on me and found that it was weaker than his case on Alakaslam, which is indeed how he justified it: On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote: ... Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case. ##: UNVOTE ##: VOTE ALAKASLAM ... But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2. I think this is an entirely reasonable town reaction. He realises that the case he's not voting is the stronger one for as long as he doesn't know Xzavier's alignment, and so he switches to it. Obviously, knowing the alignment of Xzavier could change his reads - a lot of the play in day 1 centred around Xzavier, knowing his alignment is obviously going to give you a lot of context for your reads. Making decisions conditional on which way somebody flips isn't something which I think would come naturally to scum. + Show Spoiler + Point #3: Onegu was wanted to lynch Aquanim if Xzavier flipped town, but post-lynch, he didn't even pursue Aquanim at all. (See last quoted post) The most critical part of this post lies in the last sentence. What changed? Why did he give up on Aquanim? Nearly all of Onegu's case for me relies on events that happened prior to this post. There is absolutely no reason for him to suddenly switch his vbest scum read from Aquanim to me. A townie in this position after Xzavier's flip as town would pursue Aquanim to no end. The only explanation here is that Onegu is scum, and he sees me as a greater threat to his mafia team than Aquanim. I distinctly recall him making a case on me after the lynch. He chose to pursue you as his primary target, but he still has me on his scum list. I don't see how partially changing his mind makes Onegu scum. In fact, flexibility in changing one's reads as you get more information about your targets is a clear town sign. + Show Spoiler + Point #4: Onegu declared his apathy to both the Xzavier and Aquanim lynches shortly thereafter with no developments other than his case for Alakaslam. Note: He reiterates that if Xzavier flips town, Onegu's vote will go to Aquanim. This is further evidence for Point #2 and is also indicative that Onegu still has not shifted his suspicions onto me. He says he has scum reads on Alakaslam and Aqua, but doesn't vote for Aqua who was the only one likely to be lynched that day. The scum reasoning behind this is that he doesn't want to be suspected post lynch(Point #2). A townie would be willing to push their second best scum read(Aquanim) if he was the only scum read that was even on the table. Only scum would try and pretend as though Alakaslam was a viable option. Elaboration on why apathy is a problem: Onegu's apathy towards the lynch on day 1 is a clear scum tell. An honest townie, in his position, would never have switched from voting Aquanim to voting Alakaslam. Even if the townie thought Aquanim was a sub-optimal lynch, he would have been willing to pursue it was the lynch that was even remotely likely to go through that he agreed with. However, scum Onegu was obviously apathetic about the lynch because he knew that, no matter what, a townie would die. Therefore, to clear himself of blame, he quickly got off the wagon he was currently on and allowed the other wagon to take precedence. This way, no one could accuse him of being the reason for getting a townie killed. It was a brilliant move, until of course, he was honest about his true intentions. This is a plausible reason why a scum Onegu would do this. However, there is a reasonable town explanation, and it's quite simple. Onegu thought that Alakaslam was more likely to flip scum than either myself or Xzavier. I admit that Onegu did not raise hell to convince other players to switch to Alakaslam. However, he did in fact make a case on Alakaslam, so it's not like he didn't apply any effort at all to convincing us. This raises the question of "Could Onegu have reasonably believed that Alakaslam was more likely to be scum?". I believe the answer to this question is yes. His case on Alakaslam is basically "Alakaslam has posted nothing of worth when there was plenty of worth that could have been said", which is pretty much all you can actually say about Alakaslam. This is a pretty decent reason for thinking Alakaslam was scum, as opposed to his case on me (which never made any sense). Actually saying that "I don't care who is killed" is a pretty impressive slip of the tongue. However, I don't think it's entirely implausible that a town Onegu could be largely apathetic as to which of his null-to-scum reads is lynched, given that he doesn't think his main read Alakaslam is going to get lynched. He tried to convince the thread to lynch his main suspect, Alakaslam - when that failed, he was justifiably not hugely invested in the lynch. Towards the end of the day, the Xzavier wagon was clearly leading. (In fact, the only two votes on me at the end IIRC were Xzavier himself and StiMaDDict.) Jumping on my wagon again would have been absolutely futile, and since he didn't think that Xzavier was scum obviously he wouldn't jump on that one either. Staying on Alakaslam was a REASONABLE thing for a townie to do in Onegu's position. Sure, it would have been better to argue even more for an Alakaslam lynch, but not everybody has the backbone to stare down the rest of the thread over a read nobody else shares. + Show Spoiler + Point #5: Onegu's entire case against me is a scummy OMGUS that only serves to maim my authority and credibility. The only thing that happened right after post-lynch was that Chromatically and I drafted up separate cases against Onegu. Nothing else changed. There was absolutely no reason for Onegu to change his scum read of Aquanim to suddenly attack me. Here is his case for reference. + Show Spoiler + On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote: Going to make a case on FirmTofu also as looking over his filter looks scummy also. His first post is nothing, it doesnt promote a good town atmosphere nor does it get anyone to defend themself as the cases are just BS. Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia. As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. Such a wierd choice on who to vote but more on this in a moment. But it was pure spam, when you say it was something fun that means it is spam. But why try to get someone who hasnt talked at all to try to talk? Someone who you know has posted and is most likely to post again is a much better choice to pressure, unless of course you dont want them to have to talk more... So you agree with almost everything? You agree with almost everything but its just plausable and you have town reads on both of them. What a quick backpeddle there, why so fast? But there was a big differance and in no way were they interchangeable as all you have to do is look at the ammount of posts they have had. It makes a HUGE difference that one line means you know someone has posted and more likely to post again, while you do not know if the other will post or not. Why do you keep on there is no difference when there is one and spicy wasnt the only one to point it out, with fyfy fliping green this becomes much more relevant. Why post this all it is is fluff and takes up space. So you are happy at first with my statement what changed? So you blast me for saying I have a better read on alakaslam but not voteing him then when I do vote him I am scum, but you didnt think the xzavier lynch didnt have the highest chance to flip scum? And me saying before the lynch I am ok with either lynch because the xzavier lynch gives town the most information, but when you say the same thing after the lynch that is perfectly ok? REALLY? Directing blue roles is bad and wrong dont do it. This is bullying you say if you dont vote how I want you to then you are scum and I will come after you also. If he doesnt make the choice you want him to then there will be consequences is the definition of bullying. Where are these people and I would ask them to look at your filter again and go ahead and say you are one of the most pro-town people in this game. You have tunneled spicy, xzavier and me and havent done much else other than bully alakaslam andmpost fluff. And when Xzavier flips town you say you didnt even expect him to flip scum. Nearly all of his points refer to supposed "scum-tells" that occurred pre-lynch. If he thought those were scum-tells, why didn't he bother to bring it up when it actually mattered? Why did he conveniently start to think I was scummy RIGHT AFTER I accused him? The only explanation for this sort of behavior is that he doesn't actually think I am scummy, he is just looking for reasons to convince others to think I am scummy so no one will vote him. Are you seriously trying to tell me that there is something scummy about rereading day 1, with the retrospective knowledge of who got lynched, and drawing new conclusions based on that? I guess that makes me scum then... and you... and everybody else in this game (with the possible exception of StiMaDDict). I'd also like to tell a little story here. Imagine you are a townie named Q, making scumreads and generally playing the game. Suddenly one of your scumreads says to someone else: "Vote Q or I'll assume that you're both scum and lynch you!". What is your reaction to that going to be? While I personally don't think that that statement makes FirmTofu scum (if only because it would be way, way too stupid) I'm not even suprised that Onegu went apeshit over it. I probably would have, in his position. Summary: It's a nice little case FirmTofu has built up here, I believe that he believes it, and I think he's townier as a result... but he's wrong. None of this makes Onegu scum, and a fair bit of it in fact makes me think that Onegu is town. Why Onegu is town He's looking for scum. No, really... In this game, Onegu is suspicious of a lot of people, I might even say paranoid. Most of his posts are talking directly about why another player is scum. Staying on-point with this approach to the game strongly indicates to me that his goal in the game is in fact to find scum. + Show Spoiler [meta] + In the last game, where he was scum, Onegu was MUCH less direct about his suspicions and his posts generally contained a lot more fluff. In my view his suspicions this game have been both consistent and flexible, both marks of a town-y thought process directing them. Consistent in that he hasn't suddenly changed his mind about anything without justifying it, and Flexible in that he has in fact changed his mind when new evidence presents itself. Looking at a player's overall attitude to the game is in my mind a far more reliable approach than focusing on individual scummy things they did. (Learned through painful past experience of mislynching townies who made dire mistakes.) | ||
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Spicydinosaur
United States382 Posts
On June 28 2013 08:52 Aquanim wrote: @Spicy: What is your read on Alakaslam? Neutral/scummy. His chaotic play feels very deliberate which doesnt tell me anything about alignment. He voted for a townie so that's why its in the scum direction. His read on onegu is hard to understand, at least for me as it seems he sheeps other's opinions, dead chrom and tofu. Haven't seen his own "case" yet. He's at least posting more than stim did, though with about 95% more fluff. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 08:51 Spicydinosaur wrote: Kinda hypocritical of you right there? More information is better for town. No, not hypocritical. Telling you why you are a town read for me serves to purpose except to derail the thread into a tangent about you. I had one purpose back when I said that, and that was to push my biggest scum read (Onegu). On the other hand, when Onegu keeps is in the dark here, scum is the only party that gains an advantage. He can't just claim, run off to bed without clarifying his night actions, and expect to get off scot-free. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 28 2013 08:32 FirmTofu wrote: I believe his "strongest town read" is hzflank or Spicy By the process of elimination, it cannot be Alakaslam, me, or Aquanim because he has stated his suspicions for all of us. It cannot be LoneMeow or StiM because a lurker cannot be rational person's strongest town read. It probably isn't Hurricane because Hurricane is currently pushing a strong case against him. The only players left are Spicy and hzflank. I do not think speculating on this helps the town at all, and I think you're on the wrong track anyway. Regardless, Onegu is correct for trying to shield the identity of his strongest town read, and I even think he made it a little TOO obvious when he said what he did. On June 28 2013 08:44 FirmTofu wrote: He is claiming that either Spicy or hzflank is a blue town role that visited Alakaslam last right. He refuses to say which of the two, but it is very easy to narrow down for any observer. What purpose did it serve to keep town in the dark? Either hzflank or Spicy needs to confirm what Onegu is saying about them, otherwise an Onegu lynch remains inevitable. Even if hzflank or Spicy confirm, we have to consider that they may be in a mafia team together. We will need to gather evidence for and against this and analyze it with the information we have at our disposal. It could also be the case that Onegu is a mafia tracker who tracked a town hzflank or Spicy to Alakaslam's house. We would also have to find evidence to refute this possibility. This whole post should be ignored. You are on the wrong track, Tofu. You're starting with way too many assumptions, and not vetting yourself as you expand thereafter. Still catching up on thread, but these thoughts were urgent and needed to be posted. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 08:59 Spicydinosaur wrote: Neutral/scummy. His chaotic play feels very deliberate which doesnt tell me anything about alignment. He voted for a townie so that's why its in the scum direction. His read on onegu is hard to understand, at least for me as it seems he sheeps other's opinions, dead chrom and tofu. Haven't seen his own "case" yet. He's at least posting more than stim did, though with about 95% more fluff. Assuming that we conclude Onegu's claim is legit, who do you want to lynch today? | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 28 2013 08:56 WaveofShadow wrote: Lazy as shit Vote Count Onegu (1): FirmTofu (1): Onegu Alakaslam (1): LoneMeow StiMaDDict (2): Aquanim, hzflank Not Voting: Alakaslam, StiMaDDict, Spicydinosaur If I screwed up somewhere, let me know! As of now, StiMaDDict is set to be rocketed into the sun by lazors and giant robots. Day 2 ends in [unparsable timestamp format] Add Hurricane Sponge to 'Not Voting' please | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 08:57 Aquanim wrote: Here it is. + Show Spoiler + I'll go through FirmTofu's case point by point. + Show Spoiler + On June 27 2013 20:43 FirmTofu wrote: FirmTofu's Case Against Onegu Point #1: Onegu seems to be looking for reasons to vote me that he doesn't necessarily even agree with. Example: Onegu initially states that meta is bad and you should "stop trying to meta peoples play." Then, when he wants to make a case against me, he uses my failure to use meta as an excuse to call me scummy. It seems like Onegu has differing views on meta depending on when it is convenient for him to think one way or another. Inconsistency can be a sign that a player is not seriously analysing the thread, which reflects a scum-mentality. However, I don't think Onegu is being inconsistent with his views on meta here. The first of Onegu's posts quoted here is saying that Onegu thinks that we should not use meta. This post isn't particularly useful but not all posts are. The second of Onegu's posts is observing that FirmTofu's post (which also states that we shouldn't use meta) does not contain a particularly good reason for not using meta. And to be honest, I partially agree with him. While it's a legitimate view for FirmTofu to hold, just because something is "boring" doesn't mean it's a bad idea. Onegu's post does NOT say that he disagrees with FirmTofu about whether meta should be used, only with the argument which FirmTofu used. Summary: I see no contradiction here. In fact, observing that someone whose opinion you agree with has nevertheless justified that opinion poorly indicates a reasonable level of analysis to me. + Show Spoiler + Point #2: Onegu switched his vote from Aquanim to Alakaslam rather arbitrarily, suggesting that he knew Aquanim would flip town and everyone would blame him, so he moved to his "second best" scum read. Example: Here we see Onegu buiding a case for Aquanim and establishing that he believes Alakaslam is "noob scum" and is a lower priority lynch to Aquanim. I have bolded all relevant areas. Then, as soon as he is pressured, he backs away from Aquanim. CONTEXT! At this point, removing his vote caused the tiebreak scenario between the lynch of Xzavier and the lynch of Aquanim to be lifted. In essence, this move sealed Xzavier's fate and saved Aquanim from being a probable lynch. This ensured that Onegu would not look suspicious post-lynch because he wouldn't be responsible for the death of a townie. The explanation that Onegu jumped from voting me to Alakaslam because he didn't want to take responsibility for my lynch is plausible. However, I also think it's plausible that Onegu, as town, reassessed his case on me and found that it was weaker than his case on Alakaslam, which is indeed how he justified it: On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote: ... Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case. ##: UNVOTE ##: VOTE ALAKASLAM ... But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2. I think this is an entirely reasonable town reaction. He realises that the case he's not voting is the stronger one for as long as he doesn't know Xzavier's alignment, and so he switches to it. Obviously, knowing the alignment of Xzavier could change his reads - a lot of the play in day 1 centred around Xzavier, knowing his alignment is obviously going to give you a lot of context for your reads. Making decisions conditional on which way somebody flips isn't something which I think would come naturally to scum. + Show Spoiler + Point #3: Onegu was wanted to lynch Aquanim if Xzavier flipped town, but post-lynch, he didn't even pursue Aquanim at all. (See last quoted post) The most critical part of this post lies in the last sentence. What changed? Why did he give up on Aquanim? Nearly all of Onegu's case for me relies on events that happened prior to this post. There is absolutely no reason for him to suddenly switch his vbest scum read from Aquanim to me. A townie in this position after Xzavier's flip as town would pursue Aquanim to no end. The only explanation here is that Onegu is scum, and he sees me as a greater threat to his mafia team than Aquanim. I distinctly recall him making a case on me after the lynch. He chose to pursue you as his primary target, but he still has me on his scum list. I don't see how partially changing his mind makes Onegu scum. In fact, flexibility in changing one's reads as you get more information about your targets is a clear town sign. + Show Spoiler + Point #4: Onegu declared his apathy to both the Xzavier and Aquanim lynches shortly thereafter with no developments other than his case for Alakaslam. Note: He reiterates that if Xzavier flips town, Onegu's vote will go to Aquanim. This is further evidence for Point #2 and is also indicative that Onegu still has not shifted his suspicions onto me. He says he has scum reads on Alakaslam and Aqua, but doesn't vote for Aqua who was the only one likely to be lynched that day. The scum reasoning behind this is that he doesn't want to be suspected post lynch(Point #2). A townie would be willing to push their second best scum read(Aquanim) if he was the only scum read that was even on the table. Only scum would try and pretend as though Alakaslam was a viable option. Elaboration on why apathy is a problem: Onegu's apathy towards the lynch on day 1 is a clear scum tell. An honest townie, in his position, would never have switched from voting Aquanim to voting Alakaslam. Even if the townie thought Aquanim was a sub-optimal lynch, he would have been willing to pursue it was the lynch that was even remotely likely to go through that he agreed with. However, scum Onegu was obviously apathetic about the lynch because he knew that, no matter what, a townie would die. Therefore, to clear himself of blame, he quickly got off the wagon he was currently on and allowed the other wagon to take precedence. This way, no one could accuse him of being the reason for getting a townie killed. It was a brilliant move, until of course, he was honest about his true intentions. This is a plausible reason why a scum Onegu would do this. However, there is a reasonable town explanation, and it's quite simple. Onegu thought that Alakaslam was more likely to flip scum than either myself or Xzavier. I admit that Onegu did not raise hell to convince other players to switch to Alakaslam. However, he did in fact make a case on Alakaslam, so it's not like he didn't apply any effort at all to convincing us. This raises the question of "Could Onegu have reasonably believed that Alakaslam was more likely to be scum?". I believe the answer to this question is yes. His case on Alakaslam is basically "Alakaslam has posted nothing of worth when there was plenty of worth that could have been said", which is pretty much all you can actually say about Alakaslam. This is a pretty decent reason for thinking Alakaslam was scum, as opposed to his case on me (which never made any sense). Actually saying that "I don't care who is killed" is a pretty impressive slip of the tongue. However, I don't think it's entirely implausible that a town Onegu could be largely apathetic as to which of his null-to-scum reads is lynched, given that he doesn't think his main read Alakaslam is going to get lynched. He tried to convince the thread to lynch his main suspect, Alakaslam - when that failed, he was justifiably not hugely invested in the lynch. Towards the end of the day, the Xzavier wagon was clearly leading. (In fact, the only two votes on me at the end IIRC were Xzavier himself and StiMaDDict.) Jumping on my wagon again would have been absolutely futile, and since he didn't think that Xzavier was scum obviously he wouldn't jump on that one either. Staying on Alakaslam was a REASONABLE thing for a townie to do in Onegu's position. Sure, it would have been better to argue even more for an Alakaslam lynch, but not everybody has the backbone to stare down the rest of the thread over a read nobody else shares. + Show Spoiler + Point #5: Onegu's entire case against me is a scummy OMGUS that only serves to maim my authority and credibility. The only thing that happened right after post-lynch was that Chromatically and I drafted up separate cases against Onegu. Nothing else changed. There was absolutely no reason for Onegu to change his scum read of Aquanim to suddenly attack me. Here is his case for reference. + Show Spoiler + On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote: Going to make a case on FirmTofu also as looking over his filter looks scummy also. His first post is nothing, it doesnt promote a good town atmosphere nor does it get anyone to defend themself as the cases are just BS. Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia. As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. Such a wierd choice on who to vote but more on this in a moment. But it was pure spam, when you say it was something fun that means it is spam. But why try to get someone who hasnt talked at all to try to talk? Someone who you know has posted and is most likely to post again is a much better choice to pressure, unless of course you dont want them to have to talk more... So you agree with almost everything? You agree with almost everything but its just plausable and you have town reads on both of them. What a quick backpeddle there, why so fast? But there was a big differance and in no way were they interchangeable as all you have to do is look at the ammount of posts they have had. It makes a HUGE difference that one line means you know someone has posted and more likely to post again, while you do not know if the other will post or not. Why do you keep on there is no difference when there is one and spicy wasnt the only one to point it out, with fyfy fliping green this becomes much more relevant. Why post this all it is is fluff and takes up space. So you are happy at first with my statement what changed? So you blast me for saying I have a better read on alakaslam but not voteing him then when I do vote him I am scum, but you didnt think the xzavier lynch didnt have the highest chance to flip scum? And me saying before the lynch I am ok with either lynch because the xzavier lynch gives town the most information, but when you say the same thing after the lynch that is perfectly ok? REALLY? Directing blue roles is bad and wrong dont do it. This is bullying you say if you dont vote how I want you to then you are scum and I will come after you also. If he doesnt make the choice you want him to then there will be consequences is the definition of bullying. Where are these people and I would ask them to look at your filter again and go ahead and say you are one of the most pro-town people in this game. You have tunneled spicy, xzavier and me and havent done much else other than bully alakaslam andmpost fluff. And when Xzavier flips town you say you didnt even expect him to flip scum. Nearly all of his points refer to supposed "scum-tells" that occurred pre-lynch. If he thought those were scum-tells, why didn't he bother to bring it up when it actually mattered? Why did he conveniently start to think I was scummy RIGHT AFTER I accused him? The only explanation for this sort of behavior is that he doesn't actually think I am scummy, he is just looking for reasons to convince others to think I am scummy so no one will vote him. Are you seriously trying to tell me that there is something scummy about rereading day 1, with the retrospective knowledge of who got lynched, and drawing new conclusions based on that? I guess that makes me scum then... and you... and everybody else in this game (with the possible exception of StiMaDDict). I'd also like to tell a little story here. Imagine you are a townie named Q, making scumreads and generally playing the game. Suddenly one of your scumreads says to someone else: "Vote Q or I'll assume that you're both scum and lynch you!". What is your reaction to that going to be? While I personally don't think that that statement makes FirmTofu scum (if only because it would be way, way too stupid) I'm not even suprised that Onegu went apeshit over it. I probably would have, in his position. Summary: It's a nice little case FirmTofu has built up here, I believe that he believes it, and I think he's townier as a result... but he's wrong. None of this makes Onegu scum, and a fair bit of it in fact makes me think that Onegu is town. Why Onegu is town He's looking for scum. No, really... In this game, Onegu is suspicious of a lot of people, I might even say paranoid. Most of his posts are talking directly about why another player is scum. Staying on-point with this approach to the game strongly indicates to me that his goal in the game is in fact to find scum. + Show Spoiler [meta] + In the last game, where he was scum, Onegu was MUCH less direct about his suspicions and his posts generally contained a lot more fluff. In my view his suspicions this game have been both consistent and flexible, both marks of a town-y thought process directing them. Consistent in that he hasn't suddenly changed his mind about anything without justifying it, and Flexible in that he has in fact changed his mind when new evidence presents itself. Looking at a player's overall attitude to the game is in my mind a far more reliable approach than focusing on individual scummy things they did. (Learned through painful past experience of mislynching townies who made dire mistakes.) I don't really agree with you on a lot of points, but I can't see you deriving this up as scum. Thanks for all the input. The problem remains that no matter what, Onegu still has the best case against him by any player. Unless you have a stronger scum read and you can make a case for his lynch, you may have to lynch sub optimally. Consider the situation where you are wrong about Onegu. Scum will likely bandwagon whoever you choose to lynch as long as it isn't one of their teammates because they want to save Onegu. Be watchful of any bandwagons that form conveniently quickly on your scum reads. Also, I hope you have drafted a potential mafia team of 3 people . If Onegu isn't mafia, which 3 people are most likely to be on a team together? Are their voting patterns today indicative of their partnership? | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Spicydinosaur
United States382 Posts
On June 28 2013 09:08 Aquanim wrote: Assuming that we conclude Onegu's claim is legit, who do you want to lynch today? Really too soon to say. I want to hear from stim, alakaslam and Onegu. Stim started posting more D2 in the last game i believe so i hope he does so again, but if not he's at the top atm. I'd like Alakaslam to clarify where he stands. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Are you not even willing to consider that Onegu may have lied about his claim? Are we just going to throw away all of the scum reads that we have built up over the course of the thread because of one claim that hasn't even been verified? I still don't see how this claim exonerates Onegu from a lynch when any scum could have easily pulled it off. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://www.thefancarpet.com/uploaded_assets/images/gallery/4591/Mighty_Morphin_Power_Rangers_The_Movie_43040_Medium.jpg) Onegu (1): StiMaDDict (2): Aquanim, hzflank FirmTofu (1): Onegu Alakaslam (1): LoneMeow Not Voting: Hurricane Sponge StiMaDDict Alakaslam Spicydinosaur StiMaDDict is set to be given the vulcan death judo grip Day 2 ends in [unparsable timestamp format] | ||
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