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On June 28 2013 09:01 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 08:51 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 28 2013 08:44 FirmTofu wrote:
He is claiming that either Spicy or hzflank is a blue town role that visited Alakaslam last right.
He refuses to say which of the two, but it is very easy to narrow down for any observer. What purpose did it serve to keep town in the dark?
Either hzflank or Spicy needs to confirm what Onegu is saying about them, otherwise an Onegu lynch remains inevitable.
Even if hzflank or Spicy confirm, we have to consider that they may be in a mafia team together. We will need to gather evidence for and against this and analyze it with the information we have at our disposal.
It could also be the case that Onegu is a mafia tracker who tracked a town hzflank or Spicy to Alakaslam's house. We would also have to find evidence to refute this possibility. Kinda hypocritical of you right there? On June 28 2013 03:57 FirmTofu wrote:On June 28 2013 03:39 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 28 2013 02:12 LoneMeow wrote:
SpicyDinosaur, I haven't seen any recent scum reads from you, who are you suspecting currently and why? Really? You are probably the only person in the thread besides stim who hasn't seen tofu and i going at each other. As i said my my night post that you, stim, onegu, and alakaslam are who im looking at. I want to see more people posting today so i can narrow down a vote for tomorrow. I would just like to say that I have moved you and Alakaslam onto my town list. I will expand on this during night. Right now, I want to focus on getting the lynch on Onegu through. I sincerely hope we can count on your vote. More information is better for town. No, not hypocritical. Telling you why you are a town read for me serves to purpose except to derail the thread into a tangent about you. I had one purpose back when I said that, and that was to push my biggest scum read (Onegu). On the other hand, when Onegu keeps is in the dark here, scum is the only party that gains an advantage. He can't just claim, run off to bed without clarifying his night actions, and expect to get off scot-free.
We have over 24 hours till voting is done. We can and should discuss more than just onegu. You pegged me for scum and now im town, that seems like a very important revelation. If anyone else switched off their scum target and says they think they are town now, you would be all over them asking why. You should be no different.
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On June 28 2013 09:11 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 08:57 Aquanim wrote:On June 28 2013 08:47 FirmTofu wrote:On June 28 2013 08:41 Aquanim wrote:
By the way, FirmTofu, my reply to your case is a little redundant now that Onegu has claimed - do you still want to see it? Nothing is redundant. Please show it. Here it is. + Show Spoiler +I'll go through FirmTofu's case point by point. + Show Spoiler +On June 27 2013 20:43 FirmTofu wrote:FirmTofu's Case Against OneguPoint #1: Onegu seems to be looking for reasons to vote me that he doesn't necessarily even agree with. Example: Onegu initially states that meta is bad and you should "stop trying to meta peoples play." Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 16:10 Onegu wrote:On June 24 2013 15:46 Alakaslam wrote:On June 24 2013 15:35 Onegu wrote:On June 24 2013 15:32 Alakaslam wrote:
I know I sai I'd go but this came up.
From the post for us newbs:
"Please do not talk about any ongoing games either in-game or pre-game. This can affect other games and is unacceptable. Please do not refer to outside-of- thread activity of players in this thread."
I have already messed up in this regard and I apologize. But note some folks have also talked about meta from previous newbie games and I don't think we are allowed to do that either. Will ask In green tomorrow when not trying to go to bed and when at computer. (iPhone)
We are ok since the games we are talking about have finished already. Sweet! Thanks again Onegu. I think I'll read those then- Tomorrow. Man this is worse than angry birds, I am thoroughly addicted. For now here is a list, so ALL of town can meta :D http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=412757http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=407058http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=405359Sorry that there is no meta on me, I'm that new. Note that some players may not only have played newbie games. Search their names! How late you want me up, midnight? I get up at 5 tomorrow! Also, check that you don't get into the above error first. Ok guys meta on peoples play you shold have played with that person at least 5 times, as this is impossible please stop trying to meta peoples play. It is ok to infer somethings on game setup, but people are still learning thier playstyle in a newbie game so you cannot base a scum read on meta play in noob games... Then, when he wants to make a case against me, he uses my failure to use meta as an excuse to call me scummy. Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote:On June 24 2013 11:15 FirmTofu wrote:As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game. Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia. It seems like Onegu has differing views on meta depending on when it is convenient for him to think one way or another. Inconsistency can be a sign that a player is not seriously analysing the thread, which reflects a scum-mentality. However, I don't think Onegu is being inconsistent with his views on meta here. The first of Onegu's posts quoted here is saying that Onegu thinks that we should not use meta. This post isn't particularly useful but not all posts are. The second of Onegu's posts is observing that FirmTofu's post (which also states that we shouldn't use meta) does not contain a particularly good reason for not using meta. And to be honest, I partially agree with him. While it's a legitimate view for FirmTofu to hold, just because something is "boring" doesn't mean it's a bad idea. Onegu's post does NOT say that he disagrees with FirmTofu about whether meta should be used, only with the argument which FirmTofu used. Summary: I see no contradiction here. In fact, observing that someone whose opinion you agree with has nevertheless justified that opinion poorly indicates a reasonable level of analysis to me. + Show Spoiler +
Point #2: Onegu switched his vote from Aquanim to Alakaslam rather arbitrarily, suggesting that he knew Aquanim would flip town and everyone would blame him, so he moved to his "second best" scum read. Example: Here we see Onegu buiding a case for Aquanim and establishing that he believes Alakaslam is "noob scum" and is a lower priority lynch to Aquanim. I have bolded all relevant areas. Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 16:58 Onegu wrote:On June 25 2013 16:48 FirmTofu wrote:On June 25 2013 16:45 Onegu wrote:On June 25 2013 16:33 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 16:01 Onegu wrote:On June 25 2013 15:50 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 15:48 fyfy wrote:
I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum.
##Vote: Aquanim Can you explain this some more? What exactly about my play do you think is scum-motivated? Can you please post your case against me as the only thing you have said is I didnt respond when things were going on, well I was going to sleep when HZ posted his case, I responded to the NN thing and have scum hunted and tried to create a useful town atmosphere. I have no idea what this request has to do with the post you quoted, but whatever... The first page and a half or so of your filter is just talking about policy, power roles and random fluff without any particular intention of finding scum. This isn't damning in as of itself, early game does tend to be like that, but the entirety of your efforts in the direction of finding scum is an overwhelming tunnel of myself. As far as I can tell, you haven't looked at anyone else at all, and endlessly tunneling a likely lynch target for the day while repeating the same old arguments (made by other people before you, mostly) over and over is a good way to look active while not actually bringing anything new to the table or having to pretend to do some original scumhunting. You haven't made any significant and new contributions to the thread, which is scum's natural state. That being said, I think it's possible that you're town and that you think tunneling me like this is accomplishing something, which is why I'm voting Xzavier over you. Actually I have made a scum hunt albit small on alakaslam, I think he is noob scum which isnt as important as killing a scum who knows what they are doing. Jesus Christ bud, if you think he's scum, by all means vote him. It's not like you know of any scum who know what they're doing, so you not voting for Alakasam is extremely suspicious to me. If I have 2 scum reads I am going to vote for the one that is the biggest threat to town. And the reason I think he is scum is he posts only fluff offers no posts to help town and offers no reads on anyone at all. The only thing he has said is spicy and onegu defend yourself. Then he dissapears, I feel this is super noob scum play but in no way is dangerous to town, on the other hand aqua has posted dangerous even harmful ideas toward town. Then, as soon as he is pressured, he backs away from Aquanim. CONTEXT! At this point, removing his vote caused the tiebreak scenario between the lynch of Xzavier and the lynch of Aquanim to be lifted. In essence, this move sealed Xzavier's fate and saved Aquanim from being a probable lynch. This ensured that Onegu would not look suspicious post-lynch because he wouldn't be responsible for the death of a townie.Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote:On June 25 2013 17:35 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 17:27 hzflank wrote:Xzavier, Onegu and I all seem to have similar opinions on scum voting, yet we all seem to have greatly differing personalities. This leads me to believe that Xzavier and Onegu are town, as I think they arrived at their opinions by looking at the situation from a town point of view. The only slight worry I have on Xzavier is: On June 25 2013 14:33 Xzavier wrote:
Whats the massive scum yell. cuz im not gonna lie. i skimmed threw all the noisy neighbor spam just to see who was asking for them to claim. no other part of it means anything to me xD But that could just be a character trait or a lack of time. On the whole I am uncomfortable with the votes on Xzavier. Is there anything about Xzavier and Onegu's play which makes you think they're town besides where their vote is? Personally, I can't see anything about their play which makes me think they're looking at this game with a town mentality and actually searching for scum, rather than just jumping on the only other wagon going. I think they are likely scum but I have a much townier read on you because I can see you're thinking about the game and critically evaluating your reads. Their arguments, on the other hand, are mostly "herp derp he disagreed with us about nosy neighbours" and "look at this single post and how it agrees with something someone else said, that's so scummy!". I don't think either of them could sincerely believe I'm scum based on the arguments they've presented. You said you had some questions for me, will they be forthcoming soon? Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case. ##: UNVOTE
##: VOTE ALAKASLAMBut if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2.
The explanation that Onegu jumped from voting me to Alakaslam because he didn't want to take responsibility for my lynch is plausible. However, I also think it's plausible that Onegu, as town, reassessed his case on me and found that it was weaker than his case on Alakaslam, which is indeed how he justified it: On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote:
...
Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case.
##: UNVOTE
##: VOTE ALAKASLAM
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But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2. I think this is an entirely reasonable town reaction. He realises that the case he's not voting is the stronger one for as long as he doesn't know Xzavier's alignment, and so he switches to it. Obviously, knowing the alignment of Xzavier could change his reads - a lot of the play in day 1 centred around Xzavier, knowing his alignment is obviously going to give you a lot of context for your reads. Making decisions conditional on which way somebody flips isn't something which I think would come naturally to scum. + Show Spoiler +
Point #3: Onegu was wanted to lynch Aquanim if Xzavier flipped town, but post-lynch, he didn't even pursue Aquanim at all.
(See last quoted post) The most critical part of this post lies in the last sentence. What changed? Why did he give up on Aquanim? Nearly all of Onegu's case for me relies on events that happened prior to this post. There is absolutely no reason for him to suddenly switch his vbest scum read from Aquanim to me. A townie in this position after Xzavier's flip as town would pursue Aquanim to no end. The only explanation here is that Onegu is scum, and he sees me as a greater threat to his mafia team than Aquanim.
I distinctly recall him making a case on me after the lynch. He chose to pursue you as his primary target, but he still has me on his scum list. I don't see how partially changing his mind makes Onegu scum. In fact, flexibility in changing one's reads as you get more information about your targets is a clear town sign. + Show Spoiler +Point #4: Onegu declared his apathy to both the Xzavier and Aquanim lynches shortly thereafter with no developments other than his case for Alakaslam. Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote:On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.
As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu
They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.
Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2. To be honest I dont care who is killed if Xzavier flips town my vote will go on aquanim and if he flips scum I will vote Spicydinosaur. My current read on Xzavier is null with scum reads on alakaslam and aqua. With every post Alakaslam makes he looks more and more like noob scum to me. Note: He reiterates that if Xzavier flips town, Onegu's vote will go to Aquanim. This is further evidence for Point #2 and is also indicative that Onegu still has not shifted his suspicions onto me. He says he has scum reads on Alakaslam and Aqua, but doesn't vote for Aqua who was the only one likely to be lynched that day. The scum reasoning behind this is that he doesn't want to be suspected post lynch(Point #2). A townie would be willing to push their second best scum read(Aquanim) if he was the only scum read that was even on the table. Only scum would try and pretend as though Alakaslam was a viable option. Elaboration on why apathy is a problem: Onegu's apathy towards the lynch on day 1 is a clear scum tell. An honest townie, in his position, would never have switched from voting Aquanim to voting Alakaslam. Even if the townie thought Aquanim was a sub-optimal lynch, he would have been willing to pursue it was the lynch that was even remotely likely to go through that he agreed with. However, scum Onegu was obviously apathetic about the lynch because he knew that, no matter what, a townie would die. Therefore, to clear himself of blame, he quickly got off the wagon he was currently on and allowed the other wagon to take precedence. This way, no one could accuse him of being the reason for getting a townie killed. It was a brilliant move, until of course, he was honest about his true intentions. This is a plausible reason why a scum Onegu would do this. However, there is a reasonable town explanation, and it's quite simple. Onegu thought that Alakaslam was more likely to flip scum than either myself or Xzavier. I admit that Onegu did not raise hell to convince other players to switch to Alakaslam. However, he did in fact make a case on Alakaslam, so it's not like he didn't apply any effort at all to convincing us. This raises the question of "Could Onegu have reasonably believed that Alakaslam was more likely to be scum?". I believe the answer to this question is yes. His case on Alakaslam is basically "Alakaslam has posted nothing of worth when there was plenty of worth that could have been said", which is pretty much all you can actually say about Alakaslam. This is a pretty decent reason for thinking Alakaslam was scum, as opposed to his case on me (which never made any sense). Actually saying that "I don't care who is killed" is a pretty impressive slip of the tongue. However, I don't think it's entirely implausible that a town Onegu could be largely apathetic as to which of his null-to-scum reads is lynched, given that he doesn't think his main read Alakaslam is going to get lynched. He tried to convince the thread to lynch his main suspect, Alakaslam - when that failed, he was justifiably not hugely invested in the lynch. Towards the end of the day, the Xzavier wagon was clearly leading. (In fact, the only two votes on me at the end IIRC were Xzavier himself and StiMaDDict.) Jumping on my wagon again would have been absolutely futile, and since he didn't think that Xzavier was scum obviously he wouldn't jump on that one either. Staying on Alakaslam was a REASONABLE thing for a townie to do in Onegu's position. Sure, it would have been better to argue even more for an Alakaslam lynch, but not everybody has the backbone to stare down the rest of the thread over a read nobody else shares. + Show Spoiler +
Point #5: Onegu's entire case against me is a scummy OMGUS that only serves to maim my authority and credibility. The only thing that happened right after post-lynch was that Chromatically and I drafted up separate cases against Onegu. Nothing else changed. There was absolutely no reason for Onegu to change his scum read of Aquanim to suddenly attack me. Here is his case for reference. + Show Spoiler +On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote:Going to make a case on FirmTofu also as looking over his filter looks scummy also. Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 11:15 FirmTofu wrote:Scum Hunt Day 1:On June 24 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:
hey guys Analysis: Trying to appear friendly with an innocuous greeting. Seems to project an air of insecurity. Preliminary Conclusion: Scum On June 24 2013 11:01 StiMaDDict wrote:
so it begins.. Analysis: Neutral statement of fact. Preliminary Conclusion: Need more information. On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Hey everyone Analysis: Exudes power with strong capitalization techniques along with a greeting. Preliminary Conclusion: A leader with a powerful role. On June 24 2013 11:03 Xzavier wrote:
Spicy <3 hello again. Analysis: Trying to establish a connection with a player that he has interacted with prior to this game. A metagaming, manipulative sort of move. Preliminary Conclusion: Scummy On June 24 2013 11:04 Chromatically wrote:
Why so scummy, Spicy? Analysis: First baseless accusation. As the old chinese proverb states, "He who smelt it, dealt it." Preliminary Conclusion: Scum Suggested Lynch: Chromatically His first post is nothing, it doesnt promote a good town atmosphere nor does it get anyone to defend themself as the cases are just BS. Show nested quote +As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game. Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia. As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. Show nested quote +As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. Such a wierd choice on who to vote but more on this in a moment. Show nested quote +It wasn't pure spam, and I certainly hoped it would generate discussion. I knew I could not really say anything of substance at that point, so I decided to do something fun that would get people talking. I see absolutely nothing wrong with that. When you look at this post and contrast it to some first few posts, you can clearly see that singling me out as a target is rather silly.
But it was pure spam, when you say it was something fun that means it is spam. Show nested quote +Just because Stim seems scummier than fyfy doesn't mean fyfy shouldn't be voted. I wanted fyfy to talk and I wanted to draw attention to him. That was the reason for my vote. Nothing more, nothing less. We can address Stim now that I am awake. But why try to get someone who hasnt talked at all to try to talk? Someone who you know has posted and is most likely to post again is a much better choice to pressure, unless of course you dont want them to have to talk more... Show nested quote +I almost agree with everything you said. The problem arises when you realize that the case you've made for aqua is a hell of a lot stronger than the case you've made for Chromatically. Is this something you have overlooked? Or are you deliberately weaving a story to pit town against one another? For the time being, it's hard to tell one way or the other, but I did enjoy reading. So you agree with almost everything? Show nested quote +Regardless, I see your story as a plausible conspiracy theory, at best. Acting upon it without further evidence is dangerous. Most of your post relies on speculation about the player's true motives. Show nested quote +I agreed with it in the sense that it was a plausible theory, not that it was particularly likely. For the record I have you both pegged as town and I think you are both wasting precious time accusing one another. His conspiracy idea arose mainly because you accused him of being scum. I see his post as a long-winded retaliation against your credibility to ensure that no one bandwagons him to oblivion. You agree with almost everything but its just plausable and you have town reads on both of them. What a quick backpeddle there, why so fast? Show nested quote +3) You defended fyfy while accusing me of not voting for Stim instead of fyfy. There was no reason to say that when both were perfectly good lurker targets that were largely interchangeable. But there was a big differance and in no way were they interchangeable as all you have to do is look at the ammount of posts they have had. Show nested quote +3) My point is your reason is stupid. What difference does one line of posting make? Seriously? Accusing me of being scum based on one line that someone else wrote? It makes a HUGE difference that one line means you know someone has posted and more likely to post again, while you do not know if the other will post or not. Show nested quote +2) For fyfy, I still hold that there is no difference between the lurkers and you claimed that there is a difference. I think your reasons for claiming that there is a difference are stupid and make no sense because only one line separated one from the other. Why do you continue to defend fyfy? It's quite intriguing. Why do you keep on there is no difference when there is one and spicy wasnt the only one to point it out, with fyfy fliping green this becomes much more relevant. Show nested quote +I would remind everyone of the voting rules.Voting rules:Voting is done in this thread. You cannot PM me your vote.Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion may not be counted. Vote counts will be updated whenever intermittently.No conditional voting.You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game.In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first wins (or loses).You may vote for a No Lynch in the format: ##Vote: No LynchVoting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.If you do not think Chromatically is scum, then please vote either 1) No lynch or 2) Someone else.In the event of a tie, the person who gets voted up first, dies.
Why post this all it is is fluff and takes up space. Show nested quote +Sounds great! Could you consider looking through Xzavier's filter and reading Chromatically's case against Xzavier and consider voting for him? I would be willing to take you off my scum list if you would do that. So you are happy at first with my statement what changed? Show nested quote +I concur. The Xzavier lynch didn't actually have the highest chance of flipping scum for me; however, it definitely provided invaluable information that we can use throughout the game. I'm glad to see we agree. So you blast me for saying I have a better read on alakaslam but not voteing him then when I do vote him I am scum, but you didnt think the xzavier lynch didnt have the highest chance to flip scum? And me saying before the lynch I am ok with either lynch because the xzavier lynch gives town the most information, but when you say the same thing after the lynch that is perfectly ok? REALLY? Show nested quote +I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point.P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink* Directing blue roles is bad and wrong dont do it. Show nested quote +So Alakaslam, if you want to clear yourself in my eyes, you are going to have to vote Onegu. That is the only way I can know for sure that you guys aren't on the same team. If he flips town(which is extremely unlikely), you are cleared of all blame.If he flips scum, you will be scrutinized, but I will take some time to reconsider because you did vote for him.Voting for Onegu is a win-win situation for you if you are town. The only reason you wouldn't vote him would be if you are scum.The ball is in your court.
This is bullying you say if you dont vote how I want you to then you are scum and I will come after you also. Show nested quote +Bullying? I don't see how this is bullying at all. I'm giving him a choice that he can choose to accept or not and I letting him know the consequences of his decision. If he doesnt make the choice you want him to then there will be consequences is the definition of bullying. Show nested quote +Also, Onegu isn't being pro-town by calling me scummy. He's being anti-town. Almost all of town agrees that I have been one of the most pro-town players this entire game. Where are these people and I would ask them to look at your filter again and go ahead and say you are one of the most pro-town people in this game. You have tunneled spicy, xzavier and me and havent done much else other than bully alakaslam andmpost fluff. And when Xzavier flips town you say you didnt even expect him to flip scum. Nearly all of his points refer to supposed "scum-tells" that occurred pre-lynch. If he thought those were scum-tells, why didn't he bother to bring it up when it actually mattered? Why did he conveniently start to think I was scummy RIGHT AFTER I accused him? The only explanation for this sort of behavior is that he doesn't actually think I am scummy, he is just looking for reasons to convince others to think I am scummy so no one will vote him.Are you seriously trying to tell me that there is something scummy about rereading day 1, with the retrospective knowledge of who got lynched, and drawing new conclusions based on that? I guess that makes me scum then... and you... and everybody else in this game (with the possible exception of StiMaDDict). I'd also like to tell a little story here. Imagine you are a townie named Q, making scumreads and generally playing the game. Suddenly one of your scumreads says to someone else: "Vote Q or I'll assume that you're both scum and lynch you!". What is your reaction to that going to be? While I personally don't think that that statement makes FirmTofu scum (if only because it would be way, way too stupid) I'm not even suprised that Onegu went apeshit over it. I probably would have, in his position. Summary: It's a nice little case FirmTofu has built up here, I believe that he believes it, and I think he's townier as a result... but he's wrong. None of this makes Onegu scum, and a fair bit of it in fact makes me think that Onegu is town. Why Onegu is townHe's looking for scum. No, really... In this game, Onegu is suspicious of a lot of people, I might even say paranoid. Most of his posts are talking directly about why another player is scum. Staying on-point with this approach to the game strongly indicates to me that his goal in the game is in fact to find scum. + Show Spoiler [meta] +
In the last game, where he was scum, Onegu was MUCH less direct about his suspicions and his posts generally contained a lot more fluff.
In my view his suspicions this game have been both consistent and flexible, both marks of a town-y thought process directing them. Consistent in that he hasn't suddenly changed his mind about anything without justifying it, and Flexible in that he has in fact changed his mind when new evidence presents itself. Looking at a player's overall attitude to the game is in my mind a far more reliable approach than focusing on individual scummy things they did. (Learned through painful past experience of mislynching townies who made dire mistakes.) I don't really agree with you on a lot of points, but I can't see you deriving this up as scum. Thanks for all the input. The problem remains that no matter what, Onegu still has the best case against him by any player. Unless you have a stronger scum read and you can make a case for his lynch, you may have to lynch sub optimally. Consider the situation where you are wrong about Onegu. Scum will likely bandwagon whoever you choose to lynch as long as it isn't one of their teammates because they want to save Onegu. Be watchful of any bandwagons that form conveniently quickly on your scum reads. Also, I hope you have drafted a potential mafia team of 3 people . If Onegu isn't mafia, which 3 people are most likely to be on a team together? Are their voting patterns today indicative of their partnership?
Tofu, you've made your opinion on Onegu clearer than clear twenty times over. I think a more productive use of your time at this point would be examining your secondary reads in the event we need your input on some of the other 7 people in the Town. Specifically, I want to hear who you think is scummy INDEPENDANT of your Onegu read.
If your secondary reads are based on your Onegu read, I'm going to be very sad, but I understand. We have some time left today for real discovery and discussion though, and your thoughts on secondary scum reads would be very helpful for me at this point.
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EBWOP: Ninja'd by spicy. Hardcore.
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On June 28 2013 09:17 FirmTofu wrote:
@Hurricane
Are you not even willing to consider that Onegu may have lied about his claim? Are we just going to throw away all of the scum reads that we have built up over the course of the thread because of one claim that hasn't even been verified?
I still don't see how this claim exonerates Onegu from a lynch when any scum could have easily pulled it off.
First off, if you really are determined to spend your time on this, look through my filter and try to determine my actual level of suspicion on Onegu. Second, for now, I'd recommend clearing your head in regards to the Onegu claim's legitimacy. You seem to be coming from a very limited point of reference. I don't want to spell it out for you (and I won't), but if you are going to choose to devote daylight to this issue, go back and read the role descriptions in the OP.
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I will provide my scum reads under the assumption that Onegu is sincere town shortly.
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I've decided to leak one facet of my thought process regarding Onegu's claim. This is not the entirety of my reasoning, nor even a majority. In fact, it was quite ancillary to my thought process. But hopefully it resonates for you.
The mafia have a sizable lead over us. They are not desperate at all right now. They've secured a mislynch, gotten lucky with a modkill, and sniped our Parity Cop. There is no reason for them to take insane risks right now.
If Onegu were to make a false claim right now while under significant suspicion by two high-profile members of the town, it would be the worst play in the history of this game. His team is way up, and it's not like he needed a Hail Mary to save himself. The votes were stagnating on him. Making a claim gets the attention of the room (regardless of whether he's scum or town), and for someone in this position early Day Two (with plenty of time left for discovery on his claim), it's a stupid scum play. Furthermore, I can see a tired townie wanting to disclose information like this before they have to go to bed to give the Town as much information as possible while I'm away. Do you think scum would make this claim and go AFK without the ability to defend himself for 8 hours?
Opening himself up for a counter-claim at this point is such a horrible Risk / Reward play, its staggering. Even if he didn't get counter-claimed, there's a significant chance we'd have enough time to be able to gather enough evidence to prove he was lying (given that we still have a lot of blue town roles unaccounted for), and he'd be in the spotlight. (Yes, I know you think he's in the spotlight already. He really wasn't.)
Onegu is not a bad player at this game. I went through his entire XLII and XLIII filters this afternoon. These aren't the plays I think he'd make.
Like I said, this isn't the primary reason I'm inclined to believe his claim, but it's a point worth raising.
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EBWOP: If anyone out there is in a position to counter-claim, please do so as soon as possible. I'm not saying it's impossible that Onegu is lying. I'm saying it would be incredibly dumb of him to lie. This assertion relies on the honesty are threat-recognition of my teammates.
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Onegu should claim NOTHING more until Alakaslam tells us whether he was roleblocked or not.
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I want Onegu's REASONS for deciding to Watch alakaslam last night as well. Friendly reminder so no one speculates on this topic publicly.
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Until Alakaslam enters the thread, our time would be better spent discussing other scumreads (if for nothing else, than to get our heads a little cooler on the claim issue).
LoneMeow has put a vote on Alakaslam, and has been pretty stingy with his reads. Chromatically raised an excellent point in his pre-NK post that LM has been very clever about following thread sentiment without raising any attention.
1. Doesn't want to make waves
2. Lurks hardcore
3. Accuses others of not contributing
The next original thought I hear out of LoneMeow will be the first. Put your cards on the table, LM. What are your scum reads?
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On June 28 2013 09:46 Aquanim wrote:
Onegu should claim NOTHING more until Alakaslam tells us whether he was roleblocked or not.
I hope you know where you're going with this, because I don't...
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On June 28 2013 09:57 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Until Alakaslam enters the thread, our time would be better spent discussing other scumreads (if for nothing else, than to get our heads a little cooler on the claim issue).
LoneMeow has put a vote on Alakaslam, and has been pretty stingy with his reads. Chromatically raised an excellent point in his pre-NK post that LM has been very clever about following thread sentiment without raising any attention.
1. Doesn't want to make waves
2. Lurks hardcore
3. Accuses others of not contributing
The next original thought I hear out of LoneMeow will be the first. Put your cards on the table, LM. What are your scum reads?
He has been flying under the radar. Though the alakslam vote seems different, wouldn't it be easier to just sheep onto the onegu vote?
Either way, needs more posting than 1 person per round.
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On June 28 2013 10:01 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 09:57 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Until Alakaslam enters the thread, our time would be better spent discussing other scumreads (if for nothing else, than to get our heads a little cooler on the claim issue).
LoneMeow has put a vote on Alakaslam, and has been pretty stingy with his reads. Chromatically raised an excellent point in his pre-NK post that LM has been very clever about following thread sentiment without raising any attention.
1. Doesn't want to make waves
2. Lurks hardcore
3. Accuses others of not contributing
The next original thought I hear out of LoneMeow will be the first. Put your cards on the table, LM. What are your scum reads? He has been flying under the radar. Though the alakslam vote seems different, wouldn't it be easier to just sheep onto the onegu vote? Either way, needs more posting than 1 person per round.
I seem to be the only one defending Alakaslam. At this point, I'm willing to consider that my read is wrong. Reading through his filter, I just seem to get the over-eager vibe from a guy who's really new to (and maybe not suited for) this game. I'm not in the business of defending people when they should be defending themselves, but I honestly don't think he has the ability to capably defend himself. His first reaction when pressured was to throw in the towel and martyr'd hard:
On June 25 2013 21:49 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 18:48 Onegu wrote:
I believe this is his first game of mafia ever irl or forum and he got scum read over some old games and didnt really know what to do so he tried to look active by posting but didnt actually post anything useful. I think he is scum but to be honest doesnt he doesnt know what he is doing. This is half true. I was terrified of being lynched, scum fall prey to that but there are other roles that have this affect on newbs. There is nothing I can do and I saw this coming soon a my quote included "make it clean like this guys" and it was the absolute worst looking post in the thread after having posted just to show that I was no lurker. I also played selfishly (as you'll see on flip) rather than from a town mindset. I started to seek survival and that is scummy and I know it too, is the sad thing. Just didn't put 2 &2 together, did not expect to wind up feeling like I was all survivalist as town :p I'm really sorry I couldn't put anything useful down before my likely exit, but this is my last ditch effort: Allow me to last the night. I still can't do much but I am a broken sheep, so looks like I'll go independent. Scum reads? Finally got one: Aquanim. Haven't read filters, haven't got a case, just want to contribute a skimmer's gut feeling before possible drasticness. Take it or leave it, especially as I must sleep as checkout is 1 pm and I checked In at a defeated 4:30. Fail at job, fail here but there is always another game  and the farm will irrigate again in a week or less. Ps: actually I have done table mafia but that is very different, I suck at that because I have AS. I thought I'd have a chance here, and still think so- just decided to go nuts in terror despite some awesome coaching to the contrary :D :S Great learning experience! The greats do what they do with skill. A silver leaguer trying to sentry expand may often find it countered by mass hydra (olllld WoL meta)- must start with Probes and Pylons, Probes and Pylons. Btw have a surprise final post if I get lynched/ killed XD See y'all around, when I was looking scummy to myself I knew OMGIS, it wassa comin! Good luck my friends, you will need it. DON'T not lynch me just because I had a hard day, if I really look scummy Lynch me dammit! Towns must know how to COMMIT! >: ) ##Vote: Aquanim
Alakaslam, can you clear up this post for me? The bolded phrase in particular.
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On June 28 2013 10:09 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 10:01 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 28 2013 09:57 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Until Alakaslam enters the thread, our time would be better spent discussing other scumreads (if for nothing else, than to get our heads a little cooler on the claim issue).
LoneMeow has put a vote on Alakaslam, and has been pretty stingy with his reads. Chromatically raised an excellent point in his pre-NK post that LM has been very clever about following thread sentiment without raising any attention.
1. Doesn't want to make waves
2. Lurks hardcore
3. Accuses others of not contributing
The next original thought I hear out of LoneMeow will be the first. Put your cards on the table, LM. What are your scum reads? He has been flying under the radar. Though the alakslam vote seems different, wouldn't it be easier to just sheep onto the onegu vote? Either way, needs more posting than 1 person per round. I seem to be the only one defending Alakaslam. At this point, I'm willing to consider that my read is wrong. Reading through his filter, I just seem to get the over-eager vibe from a guy who's really new to (and maybe not suited for) this game. I'm not in the business of defending people when they should be defending themselves, but I honestly don't think he has the ability to capably defend himself. His first reaction when pressured was to throw in the towel and martyr'd hard: Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 21:49 Alakaslam wrote:On June 25 2013 18:48 Onegu wrote:
I believe this is his first game of mafia ever irl or forum and he got scum read over some old games and didnt really know what to do so he tried to look active by posting but didnt actually post anything useful. I think he is scum but to be honest doesnt he doesnt know what he is doing. This is half true. I was terrified of being lynched, scum fall prey to that but there are other roles that have this affect on newbs. There is nothing I can do and I saw this coming soon a my quote included "make it clean like this guys" and it was the absolute worst looking post in the thread after having posted just to show that I was no lurker. I also played selfishly (as you'll see on flip) rather than from a town mindset. I started to seek survival and that is scummy and I know it too, is the sad thing. Just didn't put 2 &2 together, did not expect to wind up feeling like I was all survivalist as town :p I'm really sorry I couldn't put anything useful down before my likely exit, but this is my last ditch effort: Allow me to last the night. I still can't do much but I am a broken sheep, so looks like I'll go independent. Scum reads? Finally got one: Aquanim. Haven't read filters, haven't got a case, just want to contribute a skimmer's gut feeling before possible drasticness. Take it or leave it, especially as I must sleep as checkout is 1 pm and I checked In at a defeated 4:30. Fail at job, fail here but there is always another game and the farm will irrigate again in a week or less. Ps: actually I have done table mafia but that is very different, I suck at that because I have AS. I thought I'd have a chance here, and still think so- just decided to go nuts in terror despite some awesome coaching to the contrary :D :S Great learning experience! The greats do what they do with skill. A silver leaguer trying to sentry expand may often find it countered by mass hydra (olllld WoL meta)- must start with Probes and Pylons, Probes and Pylons. Btw have a surprise final post if I get lynched/ killed XD See y'all around, when I was looking scummy to myself I knew OMGIS, it wassa comin! Good luck my friends, you will need it. DON'T not lynch me just because I had a hard day, if I really look scummy Lynch me dammit! Towns must know how to COMMIT! >: ) ##Vote: Aquanim Alakaslam, can you clear up this post for me? The bolded phrase in particular.
Just wanted to pop in to say I agree with your sentiments on Alakaslam, especially if Onegu is sincere town.
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Time to put my cards on the table.
Why I've been voting StiMaDDict
It was a convenient place to start a counter-wagon to Onegu.
If Onegu's was the only wagon, I was concerned that the town would tunnel him, he'd flip town, and we would accomplish less than nothing today.
However, if Onegu was scum, I didn't want to start a strong wagon which would draw townie votes off him. Ideally, scum would jump on the StiMaDDict wagon to draw the lynch away from their scumbuddy, and it would be so obvious that they would be catchable.
(Thanks to hzflank for making the StiMaDDict wagon look convincing, btw.)
The StiMaDDict wagon was serious enough to look convincing, but not serious enough to make today a one-wagon day on him.
Do I think StiMaDDict is scum?
I'm leaning towards it, but only by process of elimination. I'd prefer to lynch someone on whom I have a better read than that.
Who do I think is a better lynch?
Alakaslam. There's honestly not much to say about his filter since it's largely fluff and a lot of it has been said, but I'll sum it up here.
Filter is almost entirely fluff
+ Show Spoiler + I'm not going to prove this one to you. Read his filter for yourself, it's pretty damn obvious
Very concerned with what the town thinks of him
+ Show Spoiler +
I am thinking of how I can establish my innocence. Everyone should be doing this. The more town we confirm, the better off we are finding/accurately reading scum. I also think that I've messed that up, since I actually would like FirmTofu's case against me. I kind of went all Blazinghand, and I'm just not him.
+ Show Spoiler +
So for establishing MY innocence:
I haven't been the best town so far, I posted mostly defensive fluff, and the above in the spoiler. HOWEVER, as making the thread difficult to read is not the best thing for town, I put it in there. You are not obligated to read the contents of the spoiler! But feel free to.
I haven't posted much, posting from the table is kind of rude just as is texting from the table. But I managed, and that was probably unwise. I plan to read the thread, and give a case for people IN SPOILERS with a TL;DR above each one so as to keep stuff organized. Remember, scum wants: Confusion, lack of info, and difficulty to read thread.
So town: Keep it organized, I will be doing the same, and see you in a couple minutes. Let's go find some scum!
I do agree that much of what I have posted has been odd. You know where a lot of that comes from?
+ Show Spoiler +
Which I appreciate but late at night it was killing my confidence. Don't worry about doing that further though. I have nothing to hide.
Show me some substantial posts so far! I don't want to drop a deuce on everyone but what HAS been very useful so far? Chromatically has been attacked, hasn't really defended himself yet, but others have defended for him. Odd. Then he came in and kind of defended himself.
I have attacked FirmTofu, mostly out of bitterness due to the bbcode.
Aqua has been attacked, almost for attacking chromatically and for the same reason you have been and I have been- "inactivity".
Note I am bound to be bad town this first game. I have learned much from you my good man. If it helps, you guide my vote until you look scummy.
Well Define: quality. Senseless accusations? No, there are people who have done that that there is suspicion toward. I don't see how that helps.
Accusing, from me, is going to require more evidence. I'm sorry, I just don't read people very well (yet), and I don't want to do what I have been doing.
Well then, does aiding town count?
"Shouldn't town be accusing and whatnot because it establishes innocence and is how you scumhunt etc etc" paraphrase.
"Oh meta is allowed? People have decided they want meta? Here you go, last three newbie games, top of page 13!"
"Well shit* guys I posted nothing but fluff, really sorry about that"
See the above Venn diagram, read my filter, then put it in context reading the thread. It's not scum play it's just try hard bad town. Give me a day/ night cycle and it won't be so bad, more info and I might find one.
Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 01:09 Alakaslam wrote:
Voting is requested! I will bandwagon out of bitterness until I see a really good defense. Not so much against the bbcode error (that would be hypocritical) but against... Baseless lurker accusations at the start of day 1!
See how I roll? Am I going to make those accusations? Maybe (I'm kind of doing just that) but in this case, it's because he already has a vote, and I am thinking of helping a bandwagon.
I WANT firm to show up as town, I am super nervous about mislynching! But I need to make a case it seems, and this is what I got because frankly I don't see any great cases yet.
##Vote: FirmTofu
Out because work
He's voting because it was requested, not because FirmTofu is a serious scumread of his? What the hell?
See y'all around, when I was looking scummy to myself I knew OMGIS, it wassa comin!
Good luck my friends, you will need it. DON'T not lynch me just because I had a hard day, if I really look scummy Lynch me dammit! Towns must know how to COMMIT! >: )
Now I see how scummy ^^ looks (I mean my post.)
Feh! What am I worried about. My Lynch would give town a lot of confusion though. Not good.
I get a strong feeling Mafia are actually pretty active this game, kind of puppetmastering and doing a good job of it. They've got me so far XD
No case for the above? Well, it's because of my general feeling based on the whole thread.
A lot of people accusing with weak cases or, like me, just avoiding accusing because they're worried their case will be weak (which is in itself scummy in a way- that worry).
You know? Really, I'm just very new and very wishy washy. Feel free to ask me stuff, I'll see it on my spare time and I'll try to answer. A lot of stuff I've done I have done to try to be a sideline resource to town. I haven't the best of skill at reading people anywhere, but one thing I can do is tell the truth and navigate TL. So ask me, try to entrap me and make me guilty worse than I am. I need some Town confirmation if I'm going to be useful, and that is the only way I can think of to confirm myself town. Otherwise, please just lynch me. + Show Spoiler + If everyone thinks I'm scum, I'm just dead-weight because nobody believes me. So even scumreads from me become spam, and useless fluff.
Has anyone actually considered the motivation behind my filter?
I know why I look scummy, heck you guys convinced me (lol). So, I ask you. How do I fix that? What is at my disposal to help town? I thought towniness was any effort to aid town, not YOU MUST SCUMREAD THAT IS ONLY AID TO TOWN AND NO SHEEPING BRO, IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW TO USE YOUR VOTE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BECAUSE YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT + Show Spoiler +. If that is actually true, then expect me to suck in the future. I will be a quick lynch.
On June 26 2013 12:36 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 12:26 FirmTofu wrote:
Alakaslam, would you be willing to vote for Onegu on Day 2? Yeah, maybe, check my late filter. Depends on cases against him. I just gave my vote to a mislynch right after reading town off his filter. Do not expect voting confidence from me yet! Going to homework, I need it! :p. Potato may = paranoia. Possibly acute. Along with this homework, I am going to read the town section of the thread I linked again. If you make cases against me folks don't do it based on the "lurking" I'm about to do for obvious reasons. -_- In particular, he's planting the idea that he has no confidence in his votes. Town has no reason to do this. There's yet more of this (I didn't believe anyone could martyr this hard) but if you want to see it you can read his filter. I'm well and truly bored of quoting this stuff by now. Alakaslam seems to constantly think he's under pressure when he's barely been mentioned so far... I gave him a free pass for a while because I figured he was a newb, but enough is enough.
Isn't looking for scum
+ Show Spoiler +
Day One: Voted for me with no explanation, got called on it and quickly removed his vote. Eventually moved his vote to Xzavier with the justification that he'd read my filter now and seen my argument that Xzavier was scum.
...
Let me repeat that out here, this one is important.
On day 1 Alakaslam voted for me, at that time one of the leading wagons, WITHOUT having seen anything I had to say about Xzavier.
This is not somebody who is putting any effort into finding scum.
+ Show Spoiler +Night 1: Tries to "vote" Onegu... On June 26 2013 14:38 Alakaslam wrote:
Vote: Onegu. EZ PZ but "revenge is not sweet" if I can really do this. I really felt he was a helpful fellow...
can we vote in advance at night?
If not then please understand the intent firm, I believe you. If so bolding upon reply from mods, and mods please consider it a vote.
I want to establish myself town and I understand tofu's case, I am NOT taking this lightly. Like I said I don't like mislynch in a mini like this! and then backs out of this for no apparent reason. On June 26 2013 16:11 Alakaslam wrote:
Same, but the counter he made at you early game is bs. Blue claiming is so stupid, I haven't seen it help when I read the epic threads of the bamcis. I see why people didn't like him early. He attacked your attack on him with "your clarifying common sense IN A NEWBIE GAME is just spam. Spicy!
But yeah I think he's town. Will keep reading to make sure.
(He's not specific but I'm pretty sure this is a reply to FirmTofu above, who adressed a question to him about Alakaslam.) Day 2: Says his primary suspect is StiMaDDict (the easiest target in the game), doesn't vote for him, and disappears. This is the same guy who put a vote on me without even having looked briefly at my filter. If he's that free with his vote on an ongoing wagon, why doesn't he want to be seen starting a wagon on his primary suspect?
Alakaslam is constantly sheeping the prevailing opinions in the thread with absolutely no input of his own.
A few other things
+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2013 10:19 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 10:12 Chromatically wrote:On June 26 2013 10:10 hzflank wrote:
I'm actually in quite a good position. If Xzavier flips town then I don't look scummy. If Xsavier flips red then a day 2 case against me is beneficial anyway, since there are only 3 other likely scum targets and I can just aim at one of them for my defense. Even if I get lynched day 2, as long as the power roles are being used on the 4 main scum targets then you are likely to get a scum lynch on day 3.
In short: a super late day 1 wagon on me would be a terrible idea for the town. (Not that it was suggested). ..what? Why are you thinking about what makes you look scummy? Why aren't you lynching based on who you actually think is scum? UM, Maybe he is a blue role.  If so though, careful with that hz. But yeah good point Chromatically, why would you post this at all hz? If I was scummy before for sheeping Onegu, what is this? I see no possible town motivation for saying this.
Basically the only defence possible of Alakaslam is that he's too scummy to be scum, and that's a ridiculous argument.
I'm still thinking about other possible lynches for today but my vote is on Alakaslam.
##Unvote
##Vote: Alakaslam
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The trouble with excusing Alakaslam's play as just being newby town is that the proof of that really only proves that he's newby, not that he's town. Dealing with pressure in the way he has is newby, but it's not towny.
I can't see any indication in his filter that Alakaslam is thinking about this game like a townie.
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I have issued some questions to Alakaslam. Hopefully he responds to them, and has something to say about the Onegu claim. This is a very important moment in the game for your, Alakaslam. Please try to organize your thoughts and respond to each point with a clear, simple answer. We do not need commentary at this time. Just facts.
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Assuming Onegu is sincere town and my confirmed town reads are correct, I will employ the process of elimination to guess who the scum team might be.
We have 9 players alive. I know I am town. I am convinced Hurricane and Aquanim are town and am assuming that Onegu is town.
That leaves 5 players with 2 scum roles between them.
hzflank
Alakaslam
LoneMeow
StiMaDDict
SpicyDinosaur
For me, hzflank leans town. He has been making waves in Day 1 by posting an epic conspiracy theory accusing 2 of the most active players of being mafia. He was willing to back down in the face of reason, which is another town-tell.
Alakaslam also leans town for me. Under the assumption that Onegu is town, I see no reason to believe that he is scum at all. Yeah, he posts a lot of fluff, but most of it is just easy town cred that both town and scum would want to do. He also repeatedly asks to be lynched if people are thinking he looks scummy to them. I don't see this as scum playto be at all.
LoneMeow and StiMaDDict are null reads. I have to have a look through each of their respective filters to get an idea, but if Onegu is sincere town, then I would have to subscribe to the belief that at least one of these have to be scum.
By the process of elimination, I do think that Spicy will have to be scum if Onegu is sincere town. Now, I don't want him to go batshit insane because I said this. Like I said before, I still think Onegu is lying about his claim, and if that is true, I don't think Spicy is at the top of my scum list at all. If anyone wants to know why I think Spicy comes off the worst if Onegu flips town, I may try to form a case around him once again. However, I am reluctant to do so because my read on him is reliant on the belief that Onegu is sincere town.
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On June 28 2013 11:08 FirmTofu wrote:
Assuming Onegu is sincere town and my confirmed town reads are correct, I will employ the process of elimination to guess who the scum team might be.
We have 9 players alive. I know I am town. I am convinced Hurricane and Aquanim are town and am assuming that Onegu is town.
That leaves 5 players with 2 scum roles between them.
hzflank
Alakaslam
LoneMeow
StiMaDDict
SpicyDinosaur
For me, hzflank leans town. He has been making waves in Day 1 by posting an epic conspiracy theory accusing 2 of the most active players of being mafia. He was willing to back down in the face of reason, which is another town-tell.
Alakaslam also leans town for me. Under the assumption that Onegu is town, I see no reason to believe that he is scum at all. Yeah, he posts a lot of fluff, but most of it is just easy town cred that both town and scum would want to do. He also repeatedly asks to be lynched if people are thinking he looks scummy to them. I don't see this as scum playto be at all.
LoneMeow and StiMaDDict are null reads. I have to have a look through each of their respective filters to get an idea, but if Onegu is sincere town, then I would have to subscribe to the belief that at least one of these have to be scum.
By the process of elimination, I do think that Spicy will have to be scum if Onegu is sincere town. Now, I don't want him to go batshit insane because I said this. Like I said before, I still think Onegu is lying about his claim, and if that is true, I don't think Spicy is at the top of my scum list at all. If anyone wants to know why I think Spicy comes off the worst if Onegu flips town, I may try to form a case around him once again. However, I am reluctant to do so because my read on him is reliant on the belief that Onegu is sincere town.
Sorry, I meant to say "3 scum roles between them". The only one of the 5 that I will not vote for is hzflank, unless someone makes a really good case around him.
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Just to get an idea of where I stand,
My most optimal lynch would be Onegu. However, if town comes to a near unanimous conclusion that Onegu is sincere town, I will defer to a lynch of Spicy.
If Spicy does not gain traction, I may be willing to support a lynch of StiM or LoneMeow. I have just read both of their filters and I think LoneMeow is slightly more likely to flip scum, but honestly it's a coin flip.
Finally, if the people I think of as confirmed town want to lynch Alakaslam, I may consider it. I really would prefer not to vote him at this juncture.
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EPT
