EPT[N] Sicilian Mafia Style - Page 88
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Ace da #BasesGoD back at it again! GG to SNB for having the balls to shoot. And GG to MZ for seeing the mockery of Town I was displaying. Trolls and "too bad to be scum" will never get lynched. Towns are dumb. | ||
Ver
United States2186 Posts
Note that while i did design the setup i have no idea who has what role while i wrote this, just my thoughts on both sides (mostly town) while observing. I wasn’t always caught up on the thread but read and wrote this pretty linearly. Glazing: I use this throughout the article and is primarily how I play the past few years. It’s basically a style of “reading” where you don’t really read anything, you just kind of get into a daydreaming state and aimlessly wander your eyes around and past posts. It’s basically a way of priming your intuition, which then (if it is well honed) locks onto problematic posts and lets you sense general trends like atmosphere and manipulation. The major downside is you can never convince anyone of intuition hits, so you have to either make up some nonsense because you can’t actually explain it or dig deeper and read whatever your intuition tells you to. In this case I tried to explain anything I got an intuitive hit on, but some of it may still be a little oblique: my apologies if that is so, and feel free to ask for clarification. Day 1 Reading the initial posts can be very enlightening for several reasons: 1) More self-conscious mafia players often have difficulty in finding an appropriate way to enter the thread, sometimes creating posts that seem out of whack. 2) As (in this game at least) mafia just received their roles, so they will not have had a chance to coordinate anything when the game starts. Thus all mafia posts will just be players doing stuff on their own, or being too hesitant as they have no plan and thus not willing to do anything solo, both are something you can burn them with. -First post of the game (p8) VE writes:“Hi guys! I'm going to be keeping a running tally of my posts to try and remind myself that I can't spam in this game as I'm wont to do.” Then after he just talks about random obvious mason stuff. I’d vote him on that. Not definitive but this is some really bad garbage that has no business being posted and thus if said probably has some ulterior reason (almost certainly has a role of some sort). Blue? Red? Black? Too early to tell, hence a vote/case would make him reveal himself I think. -I found Hapahauli’s post extremely mafia likely: here.. A questionnaire with those questions? WTF. Either he’s very very naive or is anti town blending in. Latter is far far more likely. Looks like space filler to me, contributing without contributing. Votevotevote. -Oatsmaster is calling people out correctly but not pushing very hard. If I was mafia I wouldn’t care because he’s not convincing anyone to lynch anytime soon, but his lack of focus makes me think he might be mafia blowing hot air while trying to get credit. Will keep a close eye on him. Now on p.12, he feels more mafia. Creating less content while still keeping the same style. He definitely has a role at this point, but I have no idea what his alignment is. Would be a solid rolecheck n1. -DoctorH feels genuine in his posts. I think he’s town trying to figure things out. I don’t really want to read his posts because I feel he’s all worked up about nothing, but I’ll scratch him off for now. -Vayne’s obnoxious tone makes him sound like an unfiltered townie. I mean seriously lololol this would be a really bad move as a mafia, forcibly making an enemy so early on. -This FirmTofu guy feels all rigid. Mafia, SK, or important blue. I’m ignoring everything he says and everything people talk to him/about him because I feel it won’t be very revealing. I think I can figure him out on general sense over time (by glazing over his posts without actually reading). This FT/DrH argument seems like a total waste of time and only helps the mafia even if both are town. -Ok scratch Hapahauli he’s only maybe 98% mafia I got a better grab. Yamato77 is almost certainly mafia based off of his first post here. I’d vote him in heartbeat. This is the quintessential mafia post. Definitely my #1 find. I didn’t even have to read any other posts by him. Remember point 1 about mafia having a hard time entering the thread? I’ve snagged many many people from intuition judging from only their first post of the game. This is confirmed from a brief glance at his posts in Personality Mafia 2 where he was an unabashed townie making strong posts and not holding back. This post here is completely the opposite. He’s holding back, not caring, not pressing as hard as he should be. Can you feeeeeel the apathy? Does he really care about the town’s best interests? -#2 bad opening post: Koshi smells very bad #vote raynpelikoneet (unless I am missing something here?) -koshiscumI also got a couple questions, they might seem noob but I just want to verify: 1) Can we post PMs our mason made? This would mean that you can give more than 5 posts to your mason right? He just communicates through PM to you, and you copy paste in chat. Is this allowed? I see a chatlog posted and I am surprised. 2) In a normal game communication outside the thread is not allowed right? Even if you are 2 brothers playing the game you can't talk to each other about the game. Pure in theory. -Note the excessively newbie overtones, apologizing or trying to seem meek and asking totally irrelevant questions. Exactly like Hapa. Scum. Atmosphere in first 18 or so hours feels very mafia influenced, so at least 1 if not 2 mafia must be making plays. This doesn’t seem like a game where the mafia are sitting back idly. -#3 Strongandbig made a pretty big post of nothing. Feels highly mafia at first sense and is very similar to what Yamato did except with Yamato there is the ironclad proof of meta analysis to support it. here. Just look at this garbage. I didn’t even have to read it and don’t really know what he says, this is just pure intuition snag; can you feel the excessively neutral overtones? The politician like aura surrounding it, afraid to take stances? The goal of blending in by contributing without contributing? Bang. Maybe even better than Hapa, though not better than Yamato. But we’ve got a quad of almost certain mafia here. This almost feels too easy...I might be missing something. Rayn feels town to me. Trying to get things done and has an air of relative certainty. But his post where he tries to identify every player in the game is pretty lol (general townie mistake too). What purpose does that serve? Gives no pressure on anyone. I’ve made this error before; it’s definitely no good to jump your horses in mafia, only messes with your current play. Only figure out what you really need to and don’t jump too far. -Sloosh is definitely worth a very close look. I feel traitor but don’t really know why. Doesn’t seem to want to help town at all. -Malongo posted a filter list and has done nothing. I don’t detect inherent manipulation in him though, just blending in. He may be the serial killer or traitor but I don’t think he’s town. -Just some general misconceptions that should be cleared: FT If anyone takes this meta argument seriously, I will be forced to look into you. This is actually absolutely ridiculous. I will not respond to any additional arguments that center around meta because I am fundamentally against using it to divine alignments. Any good player should know that meta is subject to WIFOM and is nearly always meaningless. Well I say meta rocks; not undefeatable, but a very helpful extra tool. It confirms Yamato as mafia without a doubt, for example. Just compare his first post this game to his filter in Personality Mafia 2; there’s no way you can justify him being town. It’s just easily misused because most people don’t know how to use it properly so it looks bad. Gumshoe: In regards to pms, what does mafia learn by knowing whose pming who? Absolutely nothing, the whole point of pms is that mafia can no longer benefit from certain discussions in any way.” Ok here’s an important thing that must be addressed. Just because mafia starts with an information advantage doesn’t mean that town needs to put all its information in the open. Town withholding information can be extremely valuable. If mafia knows every pm network then it’s too easy Also Gumshoe can’t know that there is a mafia silencer in the game who can shut down any open town circle completely, but he should know from looking at Bureaucracy mafia, the 2nd to last game i hosted, that i did include pm manipulation roles. -Overall FirmTofu seems like a misguided townie. He seems to be earnest and trying but uses dubious arguments like suspecting layabout for suggesting that people withhold who they’re pm’ing (lol, mafia aren’t getting caught on something like that, plus it doesn’t even mean anything about alignment). Given his previous rigidity probably an important blue. His posting is doing a good job of dissuading mafia from shooting him I think, though I’m not sure if thats intentional lol. Would be interesting to check mafia QT after the game and see if he comes up at all as a blue target; I think not. -Oatsmaster. Leaning more likely towards mafia or SK. Feels like he has something to hide but I suppose he could be an important blue role, which in this setup is vigi or parity cop or jailkeeper. More likely mafia but not enough evidence to be sure. This is a case where you want to give him rope on day 2 to reveal his true colors. Day 1 he didn’t have the chance or initiative to fully reveal himself. Good person to check. -Why is there a bandwagon starting on VE? Town Better look at how this came about. VE is generally an easy target to get people piling on, probably 1-2 mafia participating in it with the rest not contributing too much to the “case”. Actually wait a minute, yamato sloosh and snb are both voting for VE alongside Ace (done nothing, null), Chez (who knows), Oats (dont know, questionable), and layabout (lurker town? makes decent points). That does not look like a town inspired list. Bad bad lynch. Sloosh is easily a million times better. Yamato is clearly the best lynch but sloosh smells bad; way more than VE. The lynch is too contested and uncertain for mafia not to have a hand in it. The mere fact that VE is winning despite his nonexistent case ups the likelihood of Sloosh mafia for sure. -(later in day) This VE bandwagon is ridiculous. So what if he claimed a role. It means nothing towards either alignment. There’s no way he could be anyone’s number one mafia pick, so people must be going for him because he’s their best bet up for lynch. Well it also helps that I think half his voters are scum. Night 1- This VE lynch was absurd. Yes he might have been mafia from a certain perspective but he’s definitely not anywhere near the person most likely to be mafia. This seem to be a good example of mafia intervention I think vote may be quite mafia influenced as this lynch was so stupid and clouded. It was also bloody close and any townie should be giving this a close look here. Sloosh being mafia jumps up a notch. I’m guessing one mafia on sloosh’s lynch list: raynpelikoneet (town?) VayneAuthority (maybe town; seems really antagonistic to be mafia this early even if his posts are dumb) HiroPro (??) kushm4sta (who’s this guy) VisceraEyes (town) Mafia tend to like to hide in the small vote-getter lists because it draws the least suspicion. At least one mafia here: hapa/marvellosity (bad guy) gumshoe (town) Vivax (town or sk) -these two voted for SNB with nobody else on him. Malongo (hell if i know, anti town?) meapak (possible mafia) Koshi (bad guy) DoctorHelvetica (town) Mr. Wiggles (possible mafia) + another in the ultra lurker list (sandro being prime, or any of the afkers) I haven’t really read that many people’s posts so this is mostly off of feel. -Vivax is posting good thoughts but doing it in a way that may lead mafia to underestimate his threat potential and thus avoid shooting him. I’m impressed. Hopefully people read closely and catch on. Haha who am I kidding, VE got lynched cause nobody was reading his posts. Night 1: Protecting Vivax may not be bad. Though can’t rule out Vivax being Serial Killer. Need to see a bit more of him to be sure on anything besides not being mafia/traitor. He’s not helping the mafia, that’s for sure, but he’s not fully putting himself out there either. Town should investigate Ace Chezinu and the lurker crew. The former two can be valuable allies, especially if they are publically known innocent they have more incentive to actually be helpful. Mafia should shoot Ace if he’s not with them (I have no idea yet; he was very apathetic about first lynch though). Ace doesn’t do much day 1 and isn’t always consistent day 2 but day 3 and beyond he’s a wrecking ball that mafia cannot stop in the thread. Definitely someone who gains momentum over the game. I don’t think Ace is mafia given how relaxed he is. He certainly might be traitor or SK, or town. Not enough info at the moment. Shooting Vivax and Dr H would be good moves too. Anyone with a gun should kill Yamato. Next best mafia target is SnB, Sloosh (bumped up after how close/muddled that lynch was), then Hapa (now Marv, doesn’t feel any better than Hapa). Day 2: Wow, somebody did their job (vigi fired). Huge plus for the town after all the mishmash of day 1. I like the bold play. Glad Hiro died too. Didn’t really read/suspect him at all. Probably an accidental shot while hunting for blues. Rayn is definitely not confirmed innocent based off of a silencer dying. Those spewing that nonsense should carefully reflect on their thought processes. Since, let’s be honest, Rayn’s day 1 pm’s are probably not making or breaking the game, the mafia easily could have silenced their own member to set up him as an innocent later on in the game. Furthermore, he claimed an unprovable role that easily could be town or mafia. Why does any of this earn him your trust? Lastly, I did not put the mafia kp in the OP, so anyone paying attention should be very suspicious that mafia may not have a guaranteed 2 kp especially considering they have 6 members instead of the normal 5 plus a traitor. All of this hints to the potential that a Serial Killer may be present; rayn not being mafia does not mean he’s town. Now, granted, I do think Rayn is town based on behavior though definitely not confirmed; this is just to caution those who thought him town based on roles/actions. -Wow Korynne got dug out of the graveyard? So many old timers in this game  . Her posts give a pretty genuine feel of springing into action. I’m leaning more towards townie on her.Also this Korynne/Rayn/gumshoe argument...something feels off, like a big fuss about nothing. But I don’t know what. Will have to analyze later. -IMPORTANT MOMENT: SNB dayvigis Ace. Super anti-town move. Ace hadn’t made a contribution either way but he showed no signs of being mafia either. His flip reveals that he was responsible for either Yamato or Hiro showing up dead last night because I cheat and know there’s only 1 night vigi in the game -this corresponds with his ‘red check’ comment. Also unless rol is screwing with me that confirms my day 1 suspicion of SNB as mafia because only mafia have a dayvigi. But....let’s operate on the assumption that rol might have changed role distribution a bit from what I knew since apparently we have the dumbest idea ever seen in the game anyway (private pardoners) and try to reason this out. This is one of the major moments in the game that can really swing the game around and a pretty big risk to the mafia. SNB is a strong suspect but there isn’t a lot of momentum on him. What’s revealing about him is that he is trying really hard to act like he doesn’t care about the shot on Ace, but that very attitude is what makes him mafia. A townie in SNB’s situation might think ‘ah why the hell not die bugger’ but will they try to emphasize how little they care, then drop off the radar right after? SNB already set up the premade excuse of “#yolo” before rol revealed the flip and nothing else, no real reasoning; trying to mimic a guns blazing townie. But those townies still care, and SNB clearly doesn’t. That shot and execution of it should warrant heavy pressure if not a lynch. You cannot just ignore it!! The entire reason I use mafia day vigis sometimes is to test the town if they have the nuts and guts (or vision and fortitude, take your pick) to punish bad or mafia play. -Okay pardon on Sloosh? Seriously? I’m really sorry guys, this should have never happened. Private pardons are such a stupid mechanic. Mafia can’t pardon Sloosh so it’s SK buying time and stalling, which mostly confirms Rayn as not mafia if he wasn’t already (voting for Sloosh, yet can’t pardon him). day 3: Okay mafia shoots the parity cop immediately after people learn of his check? I smell a rat. Who knew though? Rayn? Korynne? Or a hidden 3rd party? Will have to keep a close eye here. SNB should be the clear number one lynch, even if not 100% serious and you ignore his day 1 transgressions. Have to have to punish or at least figure things out after his shot on the town’s biggest helper. Sloosh solid next bet lynch today, even though I know he wasn’t mafia pardoned. The day 1 votes and his awful posts don’t help. Doesn’t even seem to really be trying. -Vayne seems to be making excuses for all the people I think are mafia in a very dubious way. extremely suspicious. I thought he was townie from feel day 1 because he’s not caring at all about making enemies but definitely could be wrong after seeing all this. If this keeps up at all he’s a dead man. -Let me share an easy way to confirm Sloosh here. There is maybe a 2% chance he’s just had some irl issues and actually is townie and the mafia somehow didn’t pile on VE to save him. So what you do here is...ignore him! If he’s town, when he gets back he will 100% try to contribute something. If he’s mafia, if there’s no pressure on him he will not care. Note that if he does come back and start actively contributing, it does not mean he’s 100% town because mafia might still fake that. But if he is around but doesn’t contribute, he is 100% mafia. And the only way you can confirm this is by ignoring him and lulling him into a false sense of security. If you press him too early, then he will respond as either alignment and you won’t be able to judge for sure. -Oooooh! Kush just told on himself http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=414884¤tpage=48#958]here. I barely even realized he was playing but this is a 100% confirm. How does he know there is an SK and an unclaimed shot on Yamato? Ace must’ve shot one of the three, the SK the other. But there’s no way a townie can know for certain that the mafia didn’t have 2 kp and shot their traitor on accident. Someone has too much information! Oops. If he was SK he wouldn’t want to reveal the fact that there is an SK, so he must be mafia. I hope someone catches this; it’s a really bad logic gap. -vayne? I didn’t get a mafia feel day 1 from him but he’s literally helping the mafia every chance he can get, so blatantly too. The excessive pushing of mafia objectives makes me feel not mafia just because of how ridiculous it is but can’t ignore the evidence either...Way to drive me crazy. I’ll need to take a look from a fresh heuristic here I think. Going off of the parity check, Marv or Meapak is SK the other is town. Mafia wouldn’t be trying to set them up as an alternative lynch to ScumnBig if one was actually mafia. Definitely favoring Marv here, though Meapak might also be a baddie. Hasn’t really done much either. Also who the hell is this adam1617? I didn’t even realize he was playing. Probably scum even though I haven’t read his posts (does he have any?). There’s a problem though. Somebody(s) in the game is disrupting the town’s flow. I don’t know who that is though. Unless I read the atmosphere wrong the entire mafia team is not fitting the same profile (lurking, trying to blend in, not doing more than required). Things felt too muddled for that to be the case. They seem to be employing a divide and conquer strategy, spreading around their focus/resources instead of stacking on certain things after day 1. I derive this conclusion from general feel of the thread (this is what glazing does wonders for) in addition to the spread out votes of day 1. The mafia I’ve bagged already were mostly pushing VE but making neutral posts that didn’t screw with atmosphere too much. That means I must be wrong on someone being mafia and wrong on someone being townie (Rayn (might be SK), Korynne are chief suspects here. Possibly wiggles or Meapak; neither have any big pluses or minuses that I’ve sensed, but I don’t think they can affect things as much as the former as they are not active or forceful enough. Vayne, Kush, and Oats are also candidates for this atmosphere manipulation. I might be reaching the limits of what I can figure out from my analysis style (gazing without reading). Intuition is very good but sometimes not enough for trickier cases. Unless I want to start reading things really closely (day 1 lynch feels key here, plus the few oddities I noticed here and there), I may just need to wait for more information to come about or change my approach. Night 3- Changing approach here, focusing on certain filters and looking at day 1 interaction. Seeing where the VE lynch originated and who fueled it. Starting with those who I think had the most potential to muddle the atmosphere. -Read meapak’s filter. Probable SK, not mafia. Pushing the wrong people at the wrong times to fit in with mafia plans I think. Not sure still ugh. -Ok read Korynne’s filter. Tricky. Did a good job painting herself as a caring townie. Fooled my glazing pretty hard. But in the end, Scum. Gives people I know are mafia too many instances to get out of jail i,e ‘do this null action that means nothing or we’ll lynch you!1!! [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=414884¤tpage=56#1104worst example here[/url] Way too many times to be a coincidence. Here was the day 2+ missing link of scum manipulation. But who was doing it day 1 (she replaced in)? Given 3 mafia already on the VE vote list I’m inclined to think there was someone who pushed suspicion on VE but didn’t actually vote him to avoid self-incrimination. Definitely made a rather large oversight here. -Also still not sure on Wiggles. [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=414884¤tpage=20#392]This post[/url] looks really bad but I’m basing that off of secondhand inference (subtly defending Sloosh/SNB) rather than hard evidence. He might be my missing sixth man who subtly influenced day 1, but that means kush or vayne must be not mafia, and that’s ignoring Adam as well. I suppose it’s possible that a) Adam (if i ever find his posts, assuming they exist) might just be afk green or something or b) kush made a logical leap without enough evidence that is actually correct, but he couldn’t have known with what info he had. Basically wiggles looks fine except for this really suspicious post. Hrm... -Actually reading posts of day 1 now, I came across this gem: [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=414884¤tpage=19#380]lol[/url]. [quote] You think Sloosh is a decent lynch, which I'm initially hesitant to. I've seen Sloosh have bad day 1s on more than one occasion, but you are right that he hasn't posted anything meaningful in a while. I'm still more comfortable lynching VE, but Sloosh I suppose is a decent second option if you all don't see him return by the deadline and VE starts bursting with towniness.[/quote] -Yamato77 Now compare that to one of the analysis points from my guide: [quote] About YM. I'm convinced on Foolishness, and for the most part, I buy his argument on youngminii. He played the first day really oddly, and I can see IRL issues, but then the second day he's played it differently as well. I dunno, more angry. Remember what I told you last game? Cool your jets. Going to hold off on a vote for him at the moment, just on principle, really, but I think he's far and away our best candidate. Although we keep allowing Artanis[xp] to get away with posting nothing. Thankfully there's no suicide bomber this game, so it shouldn't hurt us too much to leave him alone... for the moment. Might be a ninja?[/quote] Red quote is my emphasis -treehugger (Youngminii mafia being defended by ally) See anything familiar? ^_^ “A decent second option IF (nonsensical garbage)....” ; “Going to hold off on a vote for him at the moment, just on principle, really....” Memorize this heuristic/pattern. It’s really effective! This also makes me more certain of Korynne, as she pulls the exact same thing too many times this game. Wiggles suspicion too bumped up a notch. day 4 -These kills are really suspicious. SK not targeting mafia is highly questionable (or they just suck dunno). It’s an interesting risk, because it makes the town not think there’s an SK for another night, but if he can’t convince the town to lynch mafia they lose here. SK must target mafia night 4 or they lose I think. More important mafia seem to be trying to blue snipe instead of killing off those leading the town. This either means they aren’t afraid of them or the people with great thread presence are mafia. Another mark against Korynne and Vayne & shows that Rayn may not be on the right track. -Can someone explain to me why people post these giant logs after their mason partner dies? Seems to me to be an incredibly mafia motivated idea, but obviously townies are doing it too. If I was mafia or SK I would doctor everything in the logs I wanted to to paint whatever picture I wanted, assuming that someone actually reads these massive text walls. Only time to post logs is if that person is still alive; otherwise nobody can trust what you post because you could easily be mafia altering it. Remember folks, keep the town on a need to know basis. Don’t flood them with useless or mafia altered info. -Kill snb already; town way too indecisive. It’s leaders are not doing a very good job or might not actually have the town’s best interests at heart. This should be auto lynch. He’s done nothing to help out and you can tell his cavalier attitude was fake by how quickly he abandoned it. -marv is probably sk given he’s always present but not helping unless people are attacking him. town can’t afford to lynch him today though. they must kill snb (mafia) then have sk shoot mafia before they can lynch marv. -update: oats reveals parity cop check that confirms on marv. INTERESTING: two possibilities here. Oats was mafia after all and I was correct on Marv. Problem is, Oats (if faking parity) has no reason to stick his neck out for Marv (SK). That must mean Oats/Marv are both mafia, which then makes a lot of potential mafia candidates innocent (kush, vayne, wiggles). This makes no sense how they could be town. Or that first DT check is somehow wrong. That means unless, somebody is lying, I screwed up somewhere which is very likely. I’m almost certain I was wrong at least one person I thought was mafia day 1 if not more; I’m never ever perfect day 1 and just automatically assume I was wrong on at least one if not several. Here Hapa/Marv seems to be an incorrect heuristic. This probably means meapak is anti town (SK likely) but SNB still is a must lynch because town has to kill mafia here. Other way of looking at it: Oat’s claim is so terrible that it makes him look ultra suspicious, which makes me assume he is town. This seems most likely; it has a genuine hurriedness to it. Looking over everything, things make much more sense if he is town and I’m just wrong on marv. If both are mafia there is just too many implausibilities with my given mafia 4. -Vayne also does not stop blatantly pushing mafia objectives, by Zeus’s beard this guy is crazy. The heuristic that I used to think he was townie initially (him being excessively vulgar and picking fights out of nowhere with obvious townies) is hardly foolproof, merely a guide; by this point it is far outweighed by Vayne doing everything to help the mafia. I think at this point there’s no way he cannot not be mafia unless he is in pm’s with korynne or someone who is feeding him perfect bait. HOWEVER, he wrote from the very beginning that he refuses to pm with people. So that options out....which leaves, mafia! Rather amusing how he removed his only possible defense; a dumb move to reveal that he’s not pm’ing anyone, because after another mafia member dies he could just fake logs that he was masoned to them and got suckered by them. oops. This makes mafia list pretty conclusive: Yamato -dead Sloosh -dead SNB Korynne Vayne Kush Wiggles is possible if one of the above isn’t but the cases on them are all so strong... SNB- fake cavalier attitude, vigi shot on ace. awful opening day 1 post. Korynne- tries to excuse mafia members too many times to be town. too frequent for just bad play. Vayne- Literally the most blatant pushing of mafia objectives I’ve ever seen, and he’s not pm’ing mafia. Kush- Knew too much info about the SK’s existence too early. Was the one who introduced the possibility to the thread before they should have known. I just can’t find any way to argue against their cases. The Wiggles case is quite good too, it just seems like a very low % coincidence that he subtly defended 2 mafia members, because the remaining mafia a) all must be mafia, not SK, given they are defending mafia or for kush, giving info the sk doesnt want to give b) can’t think of any reason why the above 4 could’ve done what they did and be town. Only other question is this adam fellow. Where does he fall in? Probably just afk green at this point. Much stronger points for these mafia fellows. If Wiggles isn’t mafia then he’s town; doesn’t fit SK profile. Meapak seems to be the best SK candidate. I don’t think he really cares about the town. But I’m still not certain. He’s more aggressive when he’s anti town. Controlling, not lazy. Will have to wait on this. If I’m correct on the mafia, and the actions of this day seems to confirm that I am, they’re misplaying their hand very badly. They definitely got a little complacent here and didn’t seem to expect the strong backlash onto SNB. Mafia had an extremely good position this game and either have some framer i don’t know about or faked a parity check somehow which is really doing work for them. They should have the game in the bag, but aren’t focusing their efforts properly. I don’t think they took account for Koshi actually doing something instead of sitting twiddling his thumbs and now its biting them, because they’re trying to fight back against him instead of spamming him up or misdirecting the town’s attention. If I were mafia here I would find some other point to focus on and create arguments that would drown over Koshi and those pushing SNB. They either can choose to all focus on SNB, which earlier in the day would’ve been fine because their remaining members are really unsuspected, or try even harder to stop SNB lynch. Mafia still tried their divide and conquer approach from earlier and it hurt them hard here; too middle of the road for such a polarizing lynch. Town cred is less and less important at this stage. Kush helping to lynch SNB is really killing his team because they are still exposed anyway, while Korynne sitting on Meapak isn’t doing anything. Her actions are still extremely suspect and more importantly, in the open. Now they failed the lynch and are sitting ducks for the SK, when they could have won the game today I think. Pushing the Marv lynch was probably the simplest if people were unwilling to bite meapak. They had the power of the DT check here, but weren’t coordinated in their efforts. Day 5: Good SNB finally dies, SK finally shoots mafia. Town still has a chance. Korynne dying raises some red flags to me. Only person who really suspected her openly was Koshi. Well, I wasn’t sure on the SK so I reread my analysis here and I realized I totally forgot about someone: Koshi. He’s the missing link. Remember this? “ [quote]#vote raynpelikoneet (unless I am missing something here?) I also got a couple questions, they might seem noob but I just want to verify: 1) Can we post PMs our mason made? This would mean that you can give more than 5 posts to your mason right? He just communicates through PM to you, and you copy paste in chat. Is this allowed? I see a chatlog posted and I am surprised. 2) In a normal game communication outside the thread is not allowed right? Even if you are 2 brothers playing the game you can't talk to each other about the game. Pure in theory.[/quote] -koshiscum -Note the excessively newbie overtones, apologizing or trying to seem meek and asking totally irrelevant questions. Exactly like Hapa. Scum.” Oops, totally blanked about that one. Well there’s the most likely SK too. He fits the profile perfectly, blending in, pushing mafia who suddenly die the next night (Korynne). He definitely is in a nice position too, decent play so far. Only revealing point, outside of this awful post, is the Korynne kill and his bizarre oscillation between contributing and hiding. In short, his persona is not consistent, but the mafia have been previously doing too well for people to really have the chance to sit down and focus on a small detail like that. Rather interesting, how good mafia play with one major screwup can help the SK so much. You might ask why I’m still using this day 1 dumb questionnaire, contributing without contributing, heuristic if it already failed on Hapa/Marv. That’s because it isn’t perfect, just a high % guideline. So if it fails on someone, I’m already thinking the others I used it on are even more likely. Because of this I will always hit false positives every game, but never be completely wrong on everyone either. I think I’m going to stop the analysis here. I confirmed with rol that my analysis is correct, and I’m not so sure there’s much left to say with how the game is progressing. The town is simply proceeding on wrong tangents and focusing on what's in front of them instead of what's important. The actual cases against Meapak, Marv, and Wiggles were, as noted by the defendants, mostly nonexistent. If you notice here I have pretty ironclad cases for all 4 of the remaining mafia; they don’t need to be long, just conclusive: something that only mafia could have done in that scenario. Mafia could have built something like that for wiggles, using his day 1 defense of sloosh/snb, but they didn’t even have to. He died from essentially people saying “he seems funny I don’t like him.” If you’re going to lynch someone post day 2, you should be able find something in their play that says they must be mafia from that. If you can’t do that, don’t lynch them. I think the main thing the town lacked was simply stepping away, taking a breather, and rereading the action points of the game. The mafia and sk definitely slipped up, but the town was always focused on what was right in front of them. More often than not, this was what the mafia wanted them to see, while the SK merely slipped on by and abused the stupidity awful private pardoner power and skillfully took advantage of mafia mistakes. The fake dt check was a brilliant move by the mafia, and they were doing rather well until the day 4 slipup where they didn’t go with either extreme, but failed a middle of the road course. Goes to show how powerful putting pressure on an otherwise solid team can be. Remember town, the thread is not you! Never get caught up in the pattern of just responding to the thread. Instead, go at your own pace, look where you want to and where is most important, which may not always be the latest page. Versus decent mafia teams the worst mistake you can make is to let the thread control your play. The only other mistake by the mafia was not trying to get the town to lynch Koshi (maybe they somehow didn’t realize it? I don’t know, it should have been obvious after Korynne was shot). There’s definitely enough room to build a ‘mafia’ case on him, fuel it a bit through pm’s, and outsource their problem. I think this also shows how questionable SNB’s shot on Ace was. It not only set him up for death later on when they easily could have steered the lynch onto wiggles or meapak instead, but also removed their best tool for killing the SK when they knew too little. However, it’s an understandable play and quite bold; maybe it saved them Ace’s wrath instead. If SNB had retained the fluidity of his persona instead of faking a cavalier attitude after a passive and bland day 1, then abandoning the yolo swag style far too quickly, he might have been able to pass himself off as a gungho townie instead of a lazy mafia. | ||
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VayneAuthority
United States8983 Posts
I forgot by the end of the game due to the layabout parity check that fucked everyone over. That was the game right there. Agreed with everything else though ( skimmed it ) | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9387 Posts
lol vayne, Marv got me off u in pm land and I never turned to look back  | ||
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VayneAuthority
United States8983 Posts
On August 03 2013 13:34 Mocsta wrote: thnx for the write up lol vayne, Marv got me off u in pm land and I never turned to look back well in the 3 games I have played with him he has read me wrong every time so that should have made me scummier! | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6782 Posts
Sorry to the town for my subpar play | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9387 Posts
On August 03 2013 13:37 VayneAuthority wrote: well in the 3 games I have played with him he has read me wrong every time so that should have made me scummier! pretty much after u told me about korynne couldn't pardon scum.. i was sure scum was u plus kush. but then got tunneled on marv . sigh.. kinda depressing how easy ver makes it look. ohh well played.... | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9387 Posts
can anyone tell me why Marv was a town read.. I'm looking at clarity here, I think he said in qt Marv looked firm town | ||
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Vivax
21697 Posts
townie lynch scum + traitor shot pardon scum lynch scum lynch townie lynch Wouldn't the game have been quite lost with just the first mislynch if scum didn't shoot Hiro and ace yamato? Sick post game writeup, PM games are also much more fun and allow you to be more productive without having to post a lot in the thread. That said, this was the most enjoyable game I had in a while, thanks. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
We were so confused when I was pardoned. Like, "what the heck is going on, SK pardoner makes no sense, did rayn pardon me but won't admit it?" confused. We had 1KP throughout the whole game. I think SK shot Hiro. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Original Message From DoctorHelvetica: Sorry. I was really high. If you don't mind, I'd like to have a real discussion about the voting, particularly the division between sloOsh and VE. Don't you think it's a bit dangerous to assume that sloOsh must therefore be scum, since VE wasn't? I have a feeling mafia will push this agenda on Day 2. You will be able to tell who is scum if they say "sloOsh must be scum, but ya'll idiots voted for VE" or some reason like that - rather then pointing out real reasons that sloOsh is scum. The other alternative is that sloOsh is scum. I trust VE's reads and I've yet to see anything sloOsh posted jump out to me as real contribution. But I haven't really read his filter. However, any player that has a very good chance of getting lynched like that should normally increase his activity and contributions. VE became more reasonable considering he was about to get lynched, claimed and made his reads very clear and gave good reasons for them. His 15/15 post in particular was a very townlike way of reacting to his own inevitable lynch. But what's important is whether or not sloOsh reacted in this way. I think a mafia player is much more likely to give up in these kinds of situations. To which I replied: + Show Spoiler + Eh, I've seen two town wagons on day 1 before, so I don't think that Sloosh is automatically scum just because VE was town. That dichotomy is dangerous, and as you say, could obviously be manipulated by mafia into securing an easy lynch. On the flip side, however, I would actually expect more from Sloosh at this point. If he doesn't shape up by the middle of day 2, I'd no longer be willing to give him slack for poor performances in the past. He's a viable lynch target for day 2 along with MZ and Ace, IMO. Other than that, I'll give another look at FT if you think he's so obvious. Marv apparently shares your opinion, so that's encouraging. So obviously, he wasn't as confident that I was scum as he wanted the thread to think. I have my theories on why he omitted this and what it says about him, and we'll just say that him ragequitting this game only supports my hypothesis. So aside from Oats (who calls me mafia every game, regardless of my actual alignment), I think I played relatively well and had most of the thread fooled. I said earlier that Ace got lucky, but that's only half true. It's obviously legitimate to believe that I'm mafia for playing the way I did, because I was. I was playing to fool people that have certain preconceived notions about my play, and it worked. It just so happened that this tactic left me open to a more straightforward scumhunting style which players like Ace and Ver employ to great success. But that's enough about me, I want to talk about the game as a whole. Being mafia in this game had its ups and downs. I don't know if I'm just used to all new games, but we weren't provided with a host-made QT, I had to make one. Otherwise, we would have had to coordinate through PMs or the unreliable medium of skype. A small gripe, but it did make the initial period of lack of communication slightly lengthened. QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/4NsAEe2dNT62Z Mafia was also handicapped somewhat by only controlling 1 KP per night plus having one dayvig. Obviously, having 2 mafia KP + SK would be quite unfair to town, but the game felt somewhat out of mafia's hands. The way the game played out, the SK had the most control over the game because of his ability to pardon + his 1 nightly KP. Mafia's other abilities were quite weak, given that we had a pardon we couldn't use on mafia, and a silence ability that slightly inhibited town's ability to communicate AT BEST. We had almost no recourse against the SK we had no idea about aside from attempting to figure him out and killing him (was he bulletproof?) or exposing ourselves greatly to get him lynched (a la Carnival Cruise). As for our play, well, it varied greatly. Not having one member day 1 probably helped us more than hurt us, as replacing in as mafia gives you some time to get going before people REALLY look at you. Korryne also played very well, in my opinion, after replacing in. It's too bad I died early on. Sloosh was obvious as mafia, but it's almost always been that way with him and I don't hold it against him. I made some attempt to defend him day 1 to mixed success. VE, my mislynch target, did get lynched, so I guess it was successful. I don't think it woulkd have hurt me if I lived longer, as many town players also defended Sloosh. It wouldn't have been difficult to argue my way out of. SNB's first post was so mafia-like I had to say something to Hapa about it. After I died, I talked with Hapa and he had SNB as scum like many in the game did at the time, just from that post. The rest of his play was fine. Killing Ace was a good decision at that time. As Ver said, beginning games as mafia is almost always the msot difficult thing to do. Kush was obvious to anyone that knew his meta. He came out the gate bussing Sloosh, and it didn't help the team. He was also overreactive in the QT and constantly telling teammates how scummy they looked. Whether right or wrong, that is not conducive to good mafia play. If I had to bus someone for town cred, it would have been him. Vayne probably played the best out of all of us, and him living until endgame is testament to that. Couldn't ask for a better teammate, honestly. There is one specific tell I picked up on and talked to Hapa about, but for his sake I'll keep it a secret. At endgame, though, it should have been obvious who SK was. Mocsta was the 2nd replacement for that slot and SK had shot all nights, plus pardoned Sloosh, so it couldn't have been him. Marv was obviously town given his recent townplay. Koshi was the best candidate for SK given the play of the game. Anyway, I think I'm going to host a podcast for this game, because I want to talk about it at length. Details in the podcast thread. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On August 03 2013 12:55 Ace wrote: GodVigi Ace owning souls! But scrubs like marv says he is bad at Town while said scrub lives to get endgamed! Ace da #BasesGoD back at it again! GG to SNB for having the balls to shoot. And GG to MZ for seeing the mockery of Town I was displaying. Trolls and "too bad to be scum" will never get lynched. Towns are dumb. You must have a small penis. Sorry for you. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
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Mocsta
Australia9387 Posts
as for the game itself, I really enjoyed the post cap restriction with pm ability. this is ironic coming from a prolific spammer like myself, but I see games like titanic with 200 pages and go..ugghhh, no way I want to read that.. so this was beautiful... I will leave setup balance to others.. just wanted to say for ppl like me that quit Mafia because of low time.., this is the only type of game I would sign up for so I hope to keeps doing this... I think it can only lead to better play, because even with 25posts per person, there was still a lot of garbage | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
Sorry for missing kush being obvscum and i probably should have figured out Koshi was the SK. I mainly didn´t because it was me & Koshi in our PM´s who started suspecting Korynne at the same time (i dunno if Koshi had her as a suspect earlier). Should have been obvious that he was the SK, but i somehow thought someone else could have figuredd the same stuff and let that slide. :/ | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On August 03 2013 20:05 raynpelikoneet wrote: lol this game. it was so funny though. ^^ Sorry for missing kush being obvscum and i probably should have figured out Koshi was the SK. I mainly didn´t because it was me & Koshi in our PM´s who started suspecting Korynne at the same time (i dunno if Koshi had her as a suspect earlier). Should have been obvious that he was the SK, but i somehow thought someone else could have figuredd the same stuff and let that slide. :/ If I'd been engaging my brain for long enough... On July 29 2013 18:17 marvellosity wrote: Koshi is looking worse and worse for pushing me as SK. It's senseless. It's gone beyond the point where it's a reasonable tunnel, because it's not reasonable anymore. You don't just assume an SK will check green. I'm one of the least likely candidates for SK for that reason alone, so the push on me is totally retarded or mafia-oriented. Depends how you lot view Koshi I guess. On July 29 2013 19:03 marvellosity wrote: -snip- Anyone else is more like SK, such as you [Koshi], for example. I can speculate too - SK shot Korynne for towncred, and who were the people who were pushing Korynne mafia the most? Koshi and kush! Now he's dead so the person shooting him can grub for towncred.... like you just did funnily enough with Korynne! Funny isn't it? Probably should ignore you for grievous crimes against logic... ...or maybe we should be lynching you next, eh? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
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