|
On June 08 2013 04:42 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 04:05 WaveofShadow wrote:
Regarding layabout: His thoughts have basically coincided with mine all game. I have absolutely no reason to think he is scum right now above other people. layabout's only real read is that Sent is scum, which conflicts with your own view. I'm not following your train of thought. I'm confused by layabout's reluctance to lynch into Ace/Oats, refusing to acknowledge that the kp is reduced with a mafia lynch. He shared multiple STRONG town reads on Ace prior to the cop claim, so it appears that his only reluctance is that both Ace and Oats are town. With a 8/9 chance of Oats not being a town Miller, he wants to lynch into a large pool players likely containing only two scum. A future check has an even better chance of getting impacted by the godfather/miller, a night hit, or a mafia cop.
I was refrring to his thoughts on jay earlier on D1, his main defense of me being spot-on, and the reluctance to lynch into Ace/Oats.
Hmm looking into him now I suppose the Sent read differs as well as the reasoning for not wanting to lynch into Ace/Oats ; it's that feeling of being manipulated that I don't like that drives me to at least consider a lynch elsewhere but not exclude an Oats/Ace lynch. Layabout's reasons are entirely setup-derived and seemingly....wrong if you look at the numbers. He says we should lynch Oats at first and then moves off the both of them entirely and yet never offers up a better choice.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
|
On June 08 2013 04:59 JarJarDrinks wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote Sentinel
He gave a reason for his switch onto Ace.
Read it.
|
On June 08 2013 05:02 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 05:01 WaveofShadow wrote:On June 08 2013 04:59 JarJarDrinks wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote Sentinel He gave a reason for his switch onto Ace. Read it. It's not a very good reason however.
So you don't agree with Vivax?
|
Probably will be my last major dive before later tonight.
Ace:
Votes me for no reason whatsoever. This is either a tongue in cheek reference to this post:
On June 04 2013 11:29 Ace wrote:we could randomly start voting people off and see who goes apeshit 
(I have been known to react...unfavourably to votes on me in the past so maybe he tried?),
just a random vote for no reason, or dat 'scum starts wagons on WoS' thing, but to do so with no reasoning makes no sense. All the same I'm surprised at how much steam it picked up.
On June 06 2013 05:32 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2013 05:26 jaybrundage wrote:
Im curious why is rayn getting so much votes. He just seemed to not be very active. I recall someone saying that he is usually more active is that the main reason people are going for him?
It just seems like everyone is consolidating but im not sure why on him :o Show nested quote +On June 06 2013 01:02 mkfuba07 wrote:On June 05 2013 13:12 Stutters695 wrote:
And Fuba just sniped me. Fuba if you had to dictate a lynch today who and why? Give us something to work with. Sorry, passed out soon after my post. There's been lots of unexpected stuff popping up, distracting me from the game. The most concerning one is taken care of, so I'll be less distracted. In any case, it's unlikely I could have given you an answer. As I said, D1 I typically sheep someone I feel pretty strongly is town, on someone that person has convinced me is scum. I don't really dictate lynches D1. The only time I've actually "dictated" a lynch was at the end of Doctor Who mafia, which surprised even me in its insistence upon my lynch, as well as the fact that I was actually right XD If you'd insisted on an answer, I probably would have said vayne, since he's the one that's been on my mind the most, and I saw him as having the most potential to be scum, despite not having done anything I would call overtly scummy. While he's still on my mind, I have a different lynch target at the moment. SlOosh brought up a good point about rayn that makes me comfortable with a vote on him. His reasoning for having a town read on vayne is pretty scummy. Thinking someone's town because they accurately describe your playstyle doesn't show the level of suspicion that I'd expect from a townie. I mean, it's easier than trying to make a fake case against someone you know is innocent. It's up there with talking exclusively about setup speculation and asking the host questions to appear active. ##Vote: raynpelikoneetI previously found sentinel town (no specific reason, just general feelings after reading his posts), but I'm going to take a closer look at him since slOosh brought him up. Also, we're falling on different sides of the oats debate, which is interesting because we both just played in a scum oats game. I can believe that town oats believes Ace to be a legit lynch, since I have *kind of* the same feelings. Problem being, I don't like playing hypocritically, and if I vote Ace for activity (whether or not I expected more from him), then I might as well vote myself (though that would be playing against my wincon  ). I haven't seen anything that would pick out Ace as scummier than anyone else in the game, so I'm not voting for him today. highlighted in bold. I think it is the main reason people are voting rayne. It's a pretty solid line of reasoning. If people are voting for him based on inactivity and not this case then yea we might be mislynching the guy.
This bothered me. Ace afk a lot (typical) then comes back and votes Rayn. No reason given, but by quoting this he sort of lumps himself into one of these two groups without specifying which one. (No to mention my reasoning was inactivity with meta and legit reasons mixed in.)
On June 06 2013 07:11 Ace wrote:
### unvote
Thread activity died since I came back and I think this is fiisht. For the remaining people voting for rayne do you believe he is really just inactive or just Scum?
I just don't follow this. He says later his reasoning for voting Rayn was based on fuba's and therefore not based on inactivity. Why does it matter then if he believes fuba's reasoning is legit why the others are voting for him? Scum is scum. I'm pretty sure jay also pressed this line of thought.
On June 06 2013 12:22 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2013 12:13 WaveofShadow wrote:On June 06 2013 12:03 Ace wrote:
Me being afk doesn't mean I'm scum though. The minute I came back I was active and even voted for rayne. I only attempted to switch off when we established rayne might be an inactivity lynch.
What about that chain of events is scummy? What was I supposed to do - lurk? And then get accused for that too? I'm too lazy to check atm...when 'we' established Rayn might be an inactivity lynch? When was that ever established? I'm not sure who attempted to push that line of thinking in the first place. You had a long post that analyzed everyone's pushes on Rayn I believe and in the end you summarized it as 'half of us are voting because of inactivity, and the other half have legit reasons.' yes that post. read up the discussion surrounding it. Show nested quote +On June 06 2013 12:16 jaybrundage wrote:
Regardless of what reasons people have for voting him. The reason YOU had convinced you that he was scum. (That reason being that he thought vayne was town simply because vayne know his play style)
Having that piece of information lead you to believe that rayne was scum. However you back tracked after you said other people might have given reasons for inactivity. But other peoples voting reasons shouldn't of had such a big impact on your read. Why does it matter why they vote for him. If you think rayne is scum? It does matter what they think - notice how I originally voted for rayne. I was first on Oats (who ignored my question) and as I read the thread switched to rayne based on furba's post. As it went on it was clear some people were voting for rayne because he was inactive, and not based on scum reads. That is prime setting for a mislynch.
Ok this strikes me as looking awful. He does a huge vote analysis on Rayn preflip and picks out people's reasons for voting him, ok. The thing I don't get is why he assumes everyone started voting Rayn for the same reaosn he did: Fuba's post. He says it was 'established' that it was an inactivity lynch...but it wasn't. Not at all. I even ask him about this, he directs me to re-read (which I did. Still don't see anything 'established') He pulls his vote off right at the end yet claims he wasn't trying to derail the lynch. Wouldn't removing your vote have the potential to derail a lynch?
Overall Ace's behaviour looks really odd to me. Apparently Ace is this supermegastrong scum player but I've never seen it. His massive vote analysis where it seems he begins to hesitate on the Rayn lynch looks towny to me through sheer effort and analysis but then again I suppose a good scum player would certainly not hesitate to do this sort of thing. But then would a good scum player potentially throw himself under the bus for a fakeclaim? Unlikely I would think.
The fact that he pushed Oats D1 and then supposedly checked him is either superlegit and expected town play or scumplay gambling on the hopes that 'LOLMILLER' would get him out of it...I would think Ace is better than that.
In the end I'm inclined to believe Ace despite the odd behaviour surrounding Rayn's lynch, though I'd really like him to come back and continue to put effort forward...maybe address some of the points I've brought up here since his answers to jay didn't really satisfy me.
That being said I'm not voting Oats until I analyze him myself
|
On June 08 2013 06:13 Vivax wrote:I don't get why you people are even discussing Sentinel for lynch. My post lays out already that he is most likely town, I'll explain it like you're 5 year old: a) He was pushing Oats all along → Unlikely scum with Oats b) He switched to Ace cause two of his scumreads voted Oats → Unlikely scum with ace (and I don't think that scum would be willing to trade cred for a NK) Unless ace and Oats are both town, Sentinel isn't scum, barring any powerplay where he plays exactly the opposite of how he should. We should keep it as simple as possible and lynch Oats, and if Oats flips town we lynch ace, if Oats was miller then we gambled and lost. Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 06:10 layabout wrote:
I feel like my reads are good right now and town is in a good spot but i'm nervous about oatsmaster since i can see him being town and i really don't want us to get screwed by a miller check. Layabout can you lay out the reasons for why you think he's town?
Before filter diving I can say that I have experienced this play of his before in the last game we were in together and he was town.
Anything that people attribute to him as scummy I was essentially told in Carnival Cruise 'just Oats being Oats.'
In fact, I'd really like Ace to comment on Oats in this game vs Carnival Cruise since he hosted it.
If it's too much to ask him to do come up with this himself, then when i get the chance later I will dig up examples for him to look at.
|
Ace really needs to get back.
And I'm just making it known in case I haven't already (I have) I hate this predetermined lynch plan bullshit.
It never goes well.
|
Ace if you're still around, can I ask you one more thing?
I still don't understand your reasoning around which you argued with jaybrundage and your removal of your vote from the Rayn wagon. Your reasoning that he might be a mislynch because other people are voting him for inactivity...I just don't follow it whatsoever. If a bunch of people are voting somebody scummy for the wrong reasons, but you know someone is scum and you vote him for the right reasons, then all that matters is after the successful lynch you have to look at those who were doing so for the wrong reasons. It doesn't mean you shouldn't lynch someone you still find scummy.
Overall I'd say I'm pretty damn convinced of your towniness (though this is probably the most effort I've ever seen you put into a game, and I've never seen you play scum...lololol) but I want to go over a couple other things as well.
You mentioned you don't see why anyone would vote prplhz did you mean today specifically? Because personally his Rayn flipflop still looks awful to me and after this thing between you and Oats is dealt with one way or another he's going to have to be looked at.
You also mentioned you agree with my analysis of Vayne...the problem is I'm not so sure I agree with me. Again, meta states he should be town with this shit way he's playing, but I just don't see why anyone who wants to show people they are town would play so blatantly horribly. (Again if you take what he said about changing his own meta at face value it flips around and he's playing scummy or something.)
Some other random things worrying me like Vivax barely being around at all, me being not 100% sure of my Sent townread. I also still have to do an objective filter dive of Oats and I don't think I'll get to it tonight.
|
On June 09 2013 01:50 VayneAuthority wrote:
Btw, if Oats actually does flip town and ace is scum, it means scum is putting a lot of faith into their last 2 players. We have to re-think who is "confirmed" town.
If oats is scum, proceed as normal.
I really hate days like this. This is one of the things that helped us win in Les; discussion only occurs around one topic, and tomorrow it'll be the same topic if Oats flips town.
Not to mention the imp of the perverse just stuck his 3-pronged fork into my prefrontal cortex saying, "hey! What if Ace and Oats are both scum and this really is just one megascumplay.
When I get home I will do my Oats read and vote someone or something. I feel helpless today and I hate that.
|
On June 09 2013 03:01 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2013 02:02 WaveofShadow wrote:
Not to mention the imp of the perverse just stuck his 3-pronged fork into my prefrontal cortex saying, "hey! What if Ace and Oats are both scum and this really is just one megascumplay. That would be the best scenario. Guaranteed 10v2 with all this blues? I'd take it in a heartbeat.
Oh come on. If Oats flips red how likely is it that anyone would ebver think that he was bussing D1?
Ace could get away with it until LYLO.
Again, not saying its likely but just something I'mm always forced to keep in mind.
|
Alright f this.
##Vote: Oatsmaster
I've been wanting to do a dive into Oats all day but I'm just not going to have time. Kid won't nap, teething is a bitch.
Just going to be a good little sheep on this one, albeit a black one since I just get awful feelings about how this is all going down. I'd like to say I'll make up for it tomorrow but our next day is practically set up for us one way or the other now, isn't it?
|
ALRIGHT HE'S NAPPING
(Not that it matters this close to deadline anyway with nobody around. I'll do it for my own peace of mind though)
Oatsmaster
I tried to meta him but my meta-fu is still weak against him. In Ego where he played scum I know he tried harder than I've ever seen him try and it was the only game where I didn't really suspect him much, as opposed to Carnival Cruise and LXI in which he was town.
And fuck he's up wasted too much time reading past games and I didn't learn anything. At the end of Ego it seemed as though Oats is aware of a meta of his and tried to actively change it up in Ego...makes me wonder if instead of being extremely town-oriented in this game, as scum he tried to be tunnely and troll-y but it backfired on him and as the day progresses and he realizes that trolling isn't getting him anywhere he actively tried to push Ace properly....
I honestly have absolutely nothing useful to add here and I don't have the time to do this properly. Oats if you're town then
a) I'm sorry I didn't really have the time to do a read of you properly (not that I even know what I would have found if I went crazy in-depth, and not that I'd probably even be able to turn the tides)
b) Don't troll as town early and draw so much negative attention?
If you're scum well I had nothing to do with this one anyway so gj Ace/rest of town?
I'll be back later tonight.
|
That is NOT all.
I wrote down random notes to myself from the time I last left until now:
Scum are often around at the time of a lynch, see who posted. Whoever analyzed that in Les Mafia was right.
One scum not voting for Oats to spread out.
If we are to listen to Vayne (looks really opportunistic to me, first useful thing he's done all game? scummy.)
Then listen to Oats maybe, and check out fuba
Ace ABSOLUTELY MUST BE LYNCHED TOMORROW. There is no way around this. If they are both town then we just got fucked by RNG and there's nothing we can do.
Don't waste a check on him, he dies. Period. I don't want to ggive him the chance to worm his way out.
If this was a scum plan to get Oats killed then they have thought the next few days out and they have a pretty grand scheme going on so we're going to have to be on our toes.
I want Ace dead but it worries me that he put in so much effort as to go through the entire thread and respond to everybody even though Oats was esseentially already going down.
This was either done because he's town or to make sure no one switched votes later on, something which didn't seem very likely at all.
The shitty part is that again if it's RNG that fucks us then we're just fucked because we can't let Ace live after that.
In conclusion, burn Ace with cleansing fire and stay the fuck active or we lose.
|
On June 09 2013 12:12 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2013 12:09 WaveofShadow wrote:
That is NOT all.
I wrote down random notes to myself from the time I last left until now:
Scum are often around at the time of a lynch, see who posted. Whoever analyzed that in Les Mafia was right.
One scum not voting for Oats to spread out.
If we are to listen to Vayne (looks really opportunistic to me, first useful thing he's done all game? scummy.)
Then listen to Oats maybe, and check out fuba
Ace ABSOLUTELY MUST BE LYNCHED TOMORROW. There is no way around this. If they are both town then we just got fucked by RNG and there's nothing we can do.
Don't waste a check on him, he dies. Period. I don't want to ggive him the chance to worm his way out.
If this was a scum plan to get Oats killed then they have thought the next few days out and they have a pretty grand scheme going on so we're going to have to be on our toes.
I want Ace dead but it worries me that he put in so much effort as to go through the entire thread and respond to everybody even though Oats was esseentially already going down.
This was either done because he's town or to make sure no one switched votes later on, something which didn't seem very likely at all.
The shitty part is that again if it's RNG that fucks us then we're just fucked because we can't let Ace live after that.
In conclusion, burn Ace with cleansing fire and stay the fuck active or we lose. Do you think Sentinel is using me as a goodkarma and tunneling me hard for scum purposes or is he just as useless as me?
I think with this very question you are already becoming more useful.
Why now?
|
Let's chat, you and I, since you seem to be around.
Firstly, you mention that there are 2 scum that bussed Rayn hard. Referring to Ace's separation of those who voted Rayn into the "had good reasons to vote" camp and the "inactivity lynch" camp, which camp are those scum more likely to fall?
Secondly, what are your thoughts on how we need to proceed on Day 3?
|
On June 09 2013 12:23 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2013 12:16 WaveofShadow wrote:
Let's chat, you and I, since you seem to be around.
Firstly, you mention that there are 2 scum that bussed Rayn hard. Referring to Ace's separation of those who voted Rayn into the "had good reasons to vote" camp and the "inactivity lynch" camp, which camp are those scum more likely to fall?
Secondly, what are your thoughts on how we need to proceed on Day 3? They didn't necessarily have to bus him hard but they definitely voted somewhere in the middle of the pack im guessing or maybe even early (this is all assuming ace is scum) I would say the ones to me that look the most suspicious are stutters, Vivax, JJD. Leaning towards sentinel being town but really can't tell what he's doing tbh. stutters- Tosses around his vote a bit and is quite active, more than I would like from stutters but maybe he just had time on his hands. The damning part is that he kind of ends up on rayn with no real reason, just pops in the thread late and votes him. Vivax was trying to push a lynch on a weak player(me) which is something we both know scum love to do, and kind of just voted for rayn for no reason at all either. JJD is doing the same thing as last game where he kind of pre-conceives before the flip but I cant get a good read here, null leaning scum I've dropped the mkfuba thing but you thing I should re-examine it?
Vivax worries me simply because he's generally a much better and more active player than this. As such he is often killed by mafia very early in the game and yet wasn't.
Stutters and JJD I'm going to have to look into at some point but it's not going to be right now.
If you're assuming Ace is scum then remember that Fuba is the only 'confirmed town' read that Ace bothered to give. If the bussing was going on as you say and Ace is indeed scum then there is a hefty plan going on here, and it wouldn't surprise me if Fuba was set up real early on that bus and given a confirmed town read just so he could stay alive until LYLO. He certainly has the activity and the 'flying-under-the-radar-ness' that people don't bother questioning him because his reads are fairly clear and he has been around when necessary.
I agree with you that no one goes unscrutinized at this point, including yourself (as well as me, if people so desire).
As far as D3 goes and the upcoming NKs, I urge that people use their roles sensibly and knowing we lynch Ace tomorrow, to not waste your time with him. I agree that D3 should be used to setup for endgame in that we all vote Ace and move on from there. I absolutely do not want the day to stagnate like I feel D2 did somewhat. Again if this was a scumplan for Ace to sacrifice himself, they have accomplished exactly what they set out to do. Aside from their agenda being mostly to shut down discussion (semi-successful) I am unsure as to what else that entails and it worries me.
On June 09 2013 12:25 VayneAuthority wrote:
Day 3...well first of all we have to see who dies and what roles people claim. Then we need to carefully consider our lynch, Ace is probably going to die but we don't really need to discuss that unless some one gives an interesting cop report or something.
Day 3 should be used to setup for endgame I presume
|
I meant to talk about D3 after the second quoted post. Oh well.
On June 09 2013 12:30 Ace wrote:
We aren't lynching me immediately. I already told you - take a Cop check. It is the best path to avoid a string of Town deaths.
Quiet.
You and so many others wanted to talk about numbers? Fine.
The chance that you rolled cop AND Oats just happened to roll miller and you chose him of all people to check on that specific day are smaller than 1/9. It's been a while since I took probability but I know that much.
And if it IS true? Well I'm personally willing to take that chance because otherwise we end up at LYLO with an LXI-Palmar (ie someone we can't trust worth dicks) and then we lose.
I'd rather eliminate all doubt here and now and move on at a disadvantage than allow you to weasel your way out of it, waste our check (and on top of that, have the fortuitous chance that scum gets cop/miller/whatever) and fuck us over even further.
Lynching you is the right thing to do tomorrow Ace. End of story.
|
On June 09 2013 13:03 Ace wrote:
You aren't lynching me because it would be a stupid move. You should check me to avoid a disaster. I've already outlined this numerous times. I was under no pressure of getting lynched, could have easily not claimed Cop, or let anyone get mislynched if I was Scum. I'd also have the chance of Oats flip Town implicate me for a lynch the next day. Me getting lynched drops Scum Kp to 1, and allows for the scenario I outlined pre-game to take place. That is the entire reason Dandel Ion changed the Scum KP formula. For me to do all of this and risk the game, when I could have just done anything else is foolish. To account for this, as soon as I claimed I said you can check me tonight in the (at the time from my pov unlikely) event Oats flips Town.
For me to be Scum here I'd have to:
A.) fake a check on Oats.
B.) Set up a reason to investigate him
But my suspicions on Oats started entirely because he tunneled me when I was afk for most of Day 1. I even asked him why and he never responded. For me to be Scum here I would have to be gambling hard that I set him up and roll Cop the following night. That is a major stretch but ok, assume this is true and I am Scum.
The next day, I am under no pressure to be lynched. However, I claim a Scum check on Oats knowing he'd eventually flip Town and screw me over. I'd have to be once again, gambling on the chance I get GF role or my scum team gets off another fake check. Ahead of time.
For you to lynch me you have to accept that these 2 long- shot scenarios occurred. That I set myself up to be immune from investigation days before this scenario actually popped up. Now honestly, kita, Wos, and anyone else that wanted to lynch me before we even got to this point do you think I set all of this up? How would I have accounted for a bad roll of the dice if I am Scum? And how in the world are you all ignoring the fact that I am Town results in 8 players deaths in a row?
Anyone who didn't take the time to think this scenario out and wanted a quick lynch are most likely Scum. You want to investigate someone else tonight? Pick between yourselves. Because Im not getting lynched tomorrow.
Honestly?
This defense is stupid.
And anyone who falls for it is stupid.
You didn't have to do shit ahead of time. As scum you can push a townie all day if he looks like shit to get him mislynched WITHOUT a cop check. If you are scum and you got cop it was just the icing on the cake to getting him mislynched.
The only reason I can think of as to why you'd attempt the trade here is because you figure:
a) you'll be able to weasel your way out of it. Like you're trying to do right now.
b) You've set up fallback plans just in case you can't get people off your case. Those I'm not entirely sure of but it's not that hard to do. Hell, in Les Mafia we did the exact same thing. Vayne and I distanced ourselves so far in our reads that there was no way the two of us would ever be lynched even if one was.
Your defense is weak, Ace. Hell just the fact that you'd insinuate that I am scum for attempting to push you today is just awful considering almost the entire town agreed with this plan ahead of time AND I DIDN'T EVEN LIKE IT. Show me all of the people who agreed to cop check you instead of lynch you on D3 and how anyone else is scum. Please.
|
Honestly the hardest part of D3 is going to be getting the weaker minded individuals to agree to lynch you at the end of the day while still engaging others in discussion outside of your lynch.
You've already made it clear you're not going to help us lynch scum, Ace, so there's no reason to continue discourse with you after the NKs.
|
This actually makes a great deal of sense.
Alright Ace so that's three people now who don't think we should use the cop check on you. Not counting those who haven't spoken up since the flip.
Guess that's all three scum coming out of the woodwork to push you right after a town flip, right?
|
On June 09 2013 22:17 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2013 21:16 layabout wrote:
+ Does anybody even want another red check? What does this even mean? It's DEMOCRACY TIME Poll: What do we do with this ace dudeLynch him (9) 60% Town (6) 40% Check him (0) 0% 15 total votes Your vote: What do we do with this ace dude (Vote): Lynch him
(Vote): Check him
(Vote): Town
Democracy doesn't lie.
We don't cop check him tonight.
As far as lynching him vs him being town goes, if you people want to fuck around with that tomorrow you're letting scum win.
I will not be advocating anyone but an Ace lynch tomorrow, although I REALLY don't want to have to waste my time on dealing with him because again, not hunting for the rest of the scum is exactly what they want.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
