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[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
On June 09 2013 08:44 VayneAuthority wrote: you know what that means then, we got 2 scum that bussed hard on rayn then. Re-evaluate all reads. 2 people in good standing with the town are scum. You're scum. That is all. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
I wrote down random notes to myself from the time I last left until now: Scum are often around at the time of a lynch, see who posted. Whoever analyzed that in Les Mafia was right. One scum not voting for Oats to spread out. If we are to listen to Vayne (looks really opportunistic to me, first useful thing he's done all game? scummy.) Then listen to Oats maybe, and check out fuba Ace ABSOLUTELY MUST BE LYNCHED TOMORROW. There is no way around this. If they are both town then we just got fucked by RNG and there's nothing we can do. Don't waste a check on him, he dies. Period. I don't want to ggive him the chance to worm his way out. If this was a scum plan to get Oats killed then they have thought the next few days out and they have a pretty grand scheme going on so we're going to have to be on our toes. I want Ace dead but it worries me that he put in so much effort as to go through the entire thread and respond to everybody even though Oats was esseentially already going down. This was either done because he's town or to make sure no one switched votes later on, something which didn't seem very likely at all. The shitty part is that again if it's RNG that fucks us then we're just fucked because we can't let Ace live after that. In conclusion, burn Ace with cleansing fire and stay the fuck active or we lose. | ||
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VayneAuthority
United States8983 Posts
On June 09 2013 12:09 WaveofShadow wrote: That is NOT all. I wrote down random notes to myself from the time I last left until now: Scum are often around at the time of a lynch, see who posted. Whoever analyzed that in Les Mafia was right. One scum not voting for Oats to spread out. If we are to listen to Vayne (looks really opportunistic to me, first useful thing he's done all game? scummy.) Then listen to Oats maybe, and check out fuba Ace ABSOLUTELY MUST BE LYNCHED TOMORROW. There is no way around this. If they are both town then we just got fucked by RNG and there's nothing we can do. Don't waste a check on him, he dies. Period. I don't want to ggive him the chance to worm his way out. If this was a scum plan to get Oats killed then they have thought the next few days out and they have a pretty grand scheme going on so we're going to have to be on our toes. I want Ace dead but it worries me that he put in so much effort as to go through the entire thread and respond to everybody even though Oats was esseentially already going down. This was either done because he's town or to make sure no one switched votes later on, something which didn't seem very likely at all. The shitty part is that again if it's RNG that fucks us then we're just fucked because we can't let Ace live after that. In conclusion, burn Ace with cleansing fire and stay the fuck active or we lose. Do you think Sentinel is using me as a goodkarma and tunneling me hard for scum purposes or is he just as useless as me? | ||
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VayneAuthority
United States8983 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On June 09 2013 12:12 VayneAuthority wrote: Do you think Sentinel is using me as a goodkarma and tunneling me hard for scum purposes or is he just as useless as me? I think with this very question you are already becoming more useful. Why now? | ||
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VayneAuthority
United States8983 Posts
On June 09 2013 12:14 WaveofShadow wrote: I think with this very question you are already becoming more useful. Why now? Because I am going to be alive tomorrow and 2 more active town will be gone, time to start putting some thoughts out there since we mislynched. We have a few days to work with which is where my analysis starts to come together a little better | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
Firstly, you mention that there are 2 scum that bussed Rayn hard. Referring to Ace's separation of those who voted Rayn into the "had good reasons to vote" camp and the "inactivity lynch" camp, which camp are those scum more likely to fall? Secondly, what are your thoughts on how we need to proceed on Day 3? | ||
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VayneAuthority
United States8983 Posts
On June 09 2013 12:16 WaveofShadow wrote: Let's chat, you and I, since you seem to be around. Firstly, you mention that there are 2 scum that bussed Rayn hard. Referring to Ace's separation of those who voted Rayn into the "had good reasons to vote" camp and the "inactivity lynch" camp, which camp are those scum more likely to fall? Secondly, what are your thoughts on how we need to proceed on Day 3? They didn't necessarily have to bus him hard but they definitely voted somewhere in the middle of the pack im guessing or maybe even early (this is all assuming ace is scum) I would say the ones to me that look the most suspicious are stutters, Vivax, JJD. Leaning towards sentinel being town but really can't tell what he's doing tbh. stutters- Tosses around his vote a bit and is quite active, more than I would like from stutters but maybe he just had time on his hands. The damning part is that he kind of ends up on rayn with no real reason, just pops in the thread late and votes him. Vivax was trying to push a lynch on a weak player(me) which is something we both know scum love to do, and kind of just voted for rayn for no reason at all either. JJD is doing the same thing as last game where he kind of pre-conceives before the flip but I cant get a good read here, null leaning scum I've dropped the mkfuba thing but you thing I should re-examine it? | ||
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VayneAuthority
United States8983 Posts
Day 3 should be used to setup for endgame I presume | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On June 09 2013 12:23 VayneAuthority wrote: They didn't necessarily have to bus him hard but they definitely voted somewhere in the middle of the pack im guessing or maybe even early (this is all assuming ace is scum) I would say the ones to me that look the most suspicious are stutters, Vivax, JJD. Leaning towards sentinel being town but really can't tell what he's doing tbh. stutters- Tosses around his vote a bit and is quite active, more than I would like from stutters but maybe he just had time on his hands. The damning part is that he kind of ends up on rayn with no real reason, just pops in the thread late and votes him. Vivax was trying to push a lynch on a weak player(me) which is something we both know scum love to do, and kind of just voted for rayn for no reason at all either. JJD is doing the same thing as last game where he kind of pre-conceives before the flip but I cant get a good read here, null leaning scum I've dropped the mkfuba thing but you thing I should re-examine it? Vivax worries me simply because he's generally a much better and more active player than this. As such he is often killed by mafia very early in the game and yet wasn't. Stutters and JJD I'm going to have to look into at some point but it's not going to be right now. If you're assuming Ace is scum then remember that Fuba is the only 'confirmed town' read that Ace bothered to give. If the bussing was going on as you say and Ace is indeed scum then there is a hefty plan going on here, and it wouldn't surprise me if Fuba was set up real early on that bus and given a confirmed town read just so he could stay alive until LYLO. He certainly has the activity and the 'flying-under-the-radar-ness' that people don't bother questioning him because his reads are fairly clear and he has been around when necessary. I agree with you that no one goes unscrutinized at this point, including yourself (as well as me, if people so desire). As far as D3 goes and the upcoming NKs, I urge that people use their roles sensibly and knowing we lynch Ace tomorrow, to not waste your time with him. I agree that D3 should be used to setup for endgame in that we all vote Ace and move on from there. I absolutely do not want the day to stagnate like I feel D2 did somewhat. Again if this was a scumplan for Ace to sacrifice himself, they have accomplished exactly what they set out to do. Aside from their agenda being mostly to shut down discussion (semi-successful) I am unsure as to what else that entails and it worries me. On June 09 2013 12:25 VayneAuthority wrote: Day 3...well first of all we have to see who dies and what roles people claim. Then we need to carefully consider our lynch, Ace is probably going to die but we don't really need to discuss that unless some one gives an interesting cop report or something. Day 3 should be used to setup for endgame I presume | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On June 09 2013 12:30 Ace wrote: We aren't lynching me immediately. I already told you - take a Cop check. It is the best path to avoid a string of Town deaths. Quiet. You and so many others wanted to talk about numbers? Fine. The chance that you rolled cop AND Oats just happened to roll miller and you chose him of all people to check on that specific day are smaller than 1/9. It's been a while since I took probability but I know that much. And if it IS true? Well I'm personally willing to take that chance because otherwise we end up at LYLO with an LXI-Palmar (ie someone we can't trust worth dicks) and then we lose. I'd rather eliminate all doubt here and now and move on at a disadvantage than allow you to weasel your way out of it, waste our check (and on top of that, have the fortuitous chance that scum gets cop/miller/whatever) and fuck us over even further. Lynching you is the right thing to do tomorrow Ace. End of story. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
I argued that I should be checked first thing to open up as I know I am Town. You can easily catch me as lying Scum with this check, and drop Scum KP to 1 with my lynch tomorrow and do as I said pregame to break it. When I flip Town though: you'll have zepphird, sl0osh, Oats, Townie A, Townie B, Me, Townie C, and Townie D assuming no vet/med saves all dead. That is 8 dead town players in a row all because Scum are trying to convince you not to check me. It is THE easiest thing to do to avoid this situation - why would you ignore it? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
For me to be Scum here I'd have to: A.) fake a check on Oats. B.) Set up a reason to investigate him But my suspicions on Oats started entirely because he tunneled me when I was afk for most of Day 1. I even asked him why and he never responded. For me to be Scum here I would have to be gambling hard that I set him up and roll Cop the following night. That is a major stretch but ok, assume this is true and I am Scum. The next day, I am under no pressure to be lynched. However, I claim a Scum check on Oats knowing he'd eventually flip Town and screw me over. I'd have to be once again, gambling on the chance I get GF role or my scum team gets off another fake check. Ahead of time. For you to lynch me you have to accept that these 2 long- shot scenarios occurred. That I set myself up to be immune from investigation days before this scenario actually popped up. Now honestly, kita, Wos, and anyone else that wanted to lynch me before we even got to this point do you think I set all of this up? How would I have accounted for a bad roll of the dice if I am Scum? And how in the world are you all ignoring the fact that I am Town results in 8 players deaths in a row? Anyone who didn't take the time to think this scenario out and wanted a quick lynch are most likely Scum. You want to investigate someone else tonight? Pick between yourselves. Because Im not getting lynched tomorrow. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On June 09 2013 12:53 kitaman27 wrote: In fact, I think posting your reads of every single player would be a great idea. If you are truly town, then you understand what position you are in and should do whatever you can to prove it. I never do this, so stop asking. I'm not in a bad position so you can quit parroting that theme. | ||
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