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Probably will be my last major dive before later tonight.
Ace:
Votes me for no reason whatsoever. This is either a tongue in cheek reference to this post:
On June 04 2013 11:29 Ace wrote:we could randomly start voting people off and see who goes apeshit 
(I have been known to react...unfavourably to votes on me in the past so maybe he tried?),
just a random vote for no reason, or dat 'scum starts wagons on WoS' thing, but to do so with no reasoning makes no sense. All the same I'm surprised at how much steam it picked up.
On June 06 2013 05:32 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2013 05:26 jaybrundage wrote:
Im curious why is rayn getting so much votes. He just seemed to not be very active. I recall someone saying that he is usually more active is that the main reason people are going for him?
It just seems like everyone is consolidating but im not sure why on him :o Show nested quote +On June 06 2013 01:02 mkfuba07 wrote:On June 05 2013 13:12 Stutters695 wrote:
And Fuba just sniped me. Fuba if you had to dictate a lynch today who and why? Give us something to work with. Sorry, passed out soon after my post. There's been lots of unexpected stuff popping up, distracting me from the game. The most concerning one is taken care of, so I'll be less distracted. In any case, it's unlikely I could have given you an answer. As I said, D1 I typically sheep someone I feel pretty strongly is town, on someone that person has convinced me is scum. I don't really dictate lynches D1. The only time I've actually "dictated" a lynch was at the end of Doctor Who mafia, which surprised even me in its insistence upon my lynch, as well as the fact that I was actually right XD If you'd insisted on an answer, I probably would have said vayne, since he's the one that's been on my mind the most, and I saw him as having the most potential to be scum, despite not having done anything I would call overtly scummy. While he's still on my mind, I have a different lynch target at the moment. SlOosh brought up a good point about rayn that makes me comfortable with a vote on him. His reasoning for having a town read on vayne is pretty scummy. Thinking someone's town because they accurately describe your playstyle doesn't show the level of suspicion that I'd expect from a townie. I mean, it's easier than trying to make a fake case against someone you know is innocent. It's up there with talking exclusively about setup speculation and asking the host questions to appear active. ##Vote: raynpelikoneetI previously found sentinel town (no specific reason, just general feelings after reading his posts), but I'm going to take a closer look at him since slOosh brought him up. Also, we're falling on different sides of the oats debate, which is interesting because we both just played in a scum oats game. I can believe that town oats believes Ace to be a legit lynch, since I have *kind of* the same feelings. Problem being, I don't like playing hypocritically, and if I vote Ace for activity (whether or not I expected more from him), then I might as well vote myself (though that would be playing against my wincon  ). I haven't seen anything that would pick out Ace as scummier than anyone else in the game, so I'm not voting for him today. highlighted in bold. I think it is the main reason people are voting rayne. It's a pretty solid line of reasoning. If people are voting for him based on inactivity and not this case then yea we might be mislynching the guy.
This bothered me. Ace afk a lot (typical) then comes back and votes Rayn. No reason given, but by quoting this he sort of lumps himself into one of these two groups without specifying which one. (No to mention my reasoning was inactivity with meta and legit reasons mixed in.)
On June 06 2013 07:11 Ace wrote:
### unvote
Thread activity died since I came back and I think this is fiisht. For the remaining people voting for rayne do you believe he is really just inactive or just Scum?
I just don't follow this. He says later his reasoning for voting Rayn was based on fuba's and therefore not based on inactivity. Why does it matter then if he believes fuba's reasoning is legit why the others are voting for him? Scum is scum. I'm pretty sure jay also pressed this line of thought.
On June 06 2013 12:22 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2013 12:13 WaveofShadow wrote:On June 06 2013 12:03 Ace wrote:
Me being afk doesn't mean I'm scum though. The minute I came back I was active and even voted for rayne. I only attempted to switch off when we established rayne might be an inactivity lynch.
What about that chain of events is scummy? What was I supposed to do - lurk? And then get accused for that too? I'm too lazy to check atm...when 'we' established Rayn might be an inactivity lynch? When was that ever established? I'm not sure who attempted to push that line of thinking in the first place. You had a long post that analyzed everyone's pushes on Rayn I believe and in the end you summarized it as 'half of us are voting because of inactivity, and the other half have legit reasons.' yes that post. read up the discussion surrounding it. Show nested quote +On June 06 2013 12:16 jaybrundage wrote:
Regardless of what reasons people have for voting him. The reason YOU had convinced you that he was scum. (That reason being that he thought vayne was town simply because vayne know his play style)
Having that piece of information lead you to believe that rayne was scum. However you back tracked after you said other people might have given reasons for inactivity. But other peoples voting reasons shouldn't of had such a big impact on your read. Why does it matter why they vote for him. If you think rayne is scum? It does matter what they think - notice how I originally voted for rayne. I was first on Oats (who ignored my question) and as I read the thread switched to rayne based on furba's post. As it went on it was clear some people were voting for rayne because he was inactive, and not based on scum reads. That is prime setting for a mislynch.
Ok this strikes me as looking awful. He does a huge vote analysis on Rayn preflip and picks out people's reasons for voting him, ok. The thing I don't get is why he assumes everyone started voting Rayn for the same reaosn he did: Fuba's post. He says it was 'established' that it was an inactivity lynch...but it wasn't. Not at all. I even ask him about this, he directs me to re-read (which I did. Still don't see anything 'established') He pulls his vote off right at the end yet claims he wasn't trying to derail the lynch. Wouldn't removing your vote have the potential to derail a lynch?
Overall Ace's behaviour looks really odd to me. Apparently Ace is this supermegastrong scum player but I've never seen it. His massive vote analysis where it seems he begins to hesitate on the Rayn lynch looks towny to me through sheer effort and analysis but then again I suppose a good scum player would certainly not hesitate to do this sort of thing. But then would a good scum player potentially throw himself under the bus for a fakeclaim? Unlikely I would think.
The fact that he pushed Oats D1 and then supposedly checked him is either superlegit and expected town play or scumplay gambling on the hopes that 'LOLMILLER' would get him out of it...I would think Ace is better than that.
In the end I'm inclined to believe Ace despite the odd behaviour surrounding Rayn's lynch, though I'd really like him to come back and continue to put effort forward...maybe address some of the points I've brought up here since his answers to jay didn't really satisfy me.
That being said I'm not voting Oats until I analyze him myself
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I'm having a really tough time looking into sentinel, I just don't get some of his posts from either perspective.
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I feel like my reads are good right now and town is in a good spot but i'm nervous about oatsmaster since i can see him being town and i really don't want us to get screwed by a miller check.
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I don't get why you people are even discussing Sentinel for lynch. My post lays out already that he is most likely town, I'll explain it like you're 5 year old:
a) He was pushing Oats all along → Unlikely scum with Oats
b) He switched to Ace cause two of his scumreads voted Oats → Unlikely scum with ace (and I don't think that scum would be willing to trade cred for a NK)
Unless ace and Oats are both town, Sentinel isn't scum, barring any powerplay where he plays exactly the opposite of how he should.
We should keep it as simple as possible and lynch Oats, and if Oats flips town we lynch ace, if Oats was miller then we gambled and lost.
On June 08 2013 06:10 layabout wrote:
I feel like my reads are good right now and town is in a good spot but i'm nervous about oatsmaster since i can see him being town and i really don't want us to get screwed by a miller check.
Layabout can you lay out the reasons for why you think he's town?
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On June 08 2013 06:13 Vivax wrote:I don't get why you people are even discussing Sentinel for lynch. My post lays out already that he is most likely town, I'll explain it like you're 5 year old: a) He was pushing Oats all along → Unlikely scum with Oats b) He switched to Ace cause two of his scumreads voted Oats → Unlikely scum with ace (and I don't think that scum would be willing to trade cred for a NK) Unless ace and Oats are both town, Sentinel isn't scum, barring any powerplay where he plays exactly the opposite of how he should. We should keep it as simple as possible and lynch Oats, and if Oats flips town we lynch ace, if Oats was miller then we gambled and lost. Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 06:10 layabout wrote:
I feel like my reads are good right now and town is in a good spot but i'm nervous about oatsmaster since i can see him being town and i really don't want us to get screwed by a miller check. Layabout can you lay out the reasons for why you think he's town?
Before filter diving I can say that I have experienced this play of his before in the last game we were in together and he was town.
Anything that people attribute to him as scummy I was essentially told in Carnival Cruise 'just Oats being Oats.'
In fact, I'd really like Ace to comment on Oats in this game vs Carnival Cruise since he hosted it.
If it's too much to ask him to do come up with this himself, then when i get the chance later I will dig up examples for him to look at.
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On June 08 2013 06:13 Vivax wrote:I don't get why you people are even discussing Sentinel for lynch. My post lays out already that he is most likely town, I'll explain it like you're 5 year old: a) He was pushing Oats all along → Unlikely scum with Oats b) He switched to Ace cause two of his scumreads voted Oats → Unlikely scum with ace (and I don't think that scum would be willing to trade cred for a NK) Unless ace and Oats are both town, Sentinel isn't scum, barring any powerplay where he plays exactly the opposite of how he should. We should keep it as simple as possible and lynch Oats, and if Oats flips town we lynch ace, if Oats was miller then we gambled and lost. Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 06:10 layabout wrote:
I feel like my reads are good right now and town is in a good spot but i'm nervous about oatsmaster since i can see him being town and i really don't want us to get screwed by a miller check. Layabout can you lay out the reasons for why you think he's town?
His playstyle mathces what i have seen of his town, in particular is is suspicious of me again, He wants to lynch prplhz if not Ace and i am inclined to agree with him (but more on that if it becomes a possibilty/ before nks).
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@Vivax:
One problem I have with the reasoning in a) is that I don't feel like any scum is ever all too afraid of bussing oats right from the start. He's a hard read D1, and is also (I feel) oftentimes an unlikely lynch D1 because of that very fact. I'd have to take a closer look at how sent was pushing oats, but if it's just "his case on ace is ridic" then it's nothing that I'm sure most of the people here weren't thinking before sent said it himself. Because of this, I don't think scum oats excludes scum sent.
As glad as I am that there's a lot of discussion going on (I have excuses for not participating up to this point, but I'll leave them out unless someone really wants to hear them), I don't see myself voting for someone other than ace or oats today. The likelihood of these two players being town and getting the exact roles that would put us in this situation given their previous interaction is negligible, imo. Therefore, at least one of them is scum. Oats seems most likely to me, given that it would be silly for ace to fakeclaim and expect "guess he was miller" to get him off the hook. I agree that if ace did fakeclaim, it's more significant than a 1-for-1 trade, but it's still a pretty big swap.
##Vote: Oatsmaster
I've been asleep for a pretty long while, and I'm gonna go get food now. I also might have plans in a few hours, so I'll disappear again for a bit. Please tell me if there's anything in particular you want me to think about/look at/consider, since my time will be mostly focusing on oats/ace. In addition to being the most likely place to find scum, I feel that will give us the most to go off of going into D3.
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On June 08 2013 06:13 Vivax wrote:I don't get why you people are even discussing Sentinel for lynch. My post lays out already that he is most likely town, I'll explain it like you're 5 year old: a) He was pushing Oats all along → Unlikely scum with Oats b) He switched to Ace cause two of his scumreads voted Oats → Unlikely scum with ace (and I don't think that scum would be willing to trade cred for a NK) Unless ace and Oats are both town, Sentinel isn't scum, barring any powerplay where he plays exactly the opposite of how he should. We should keep it as simple as possible and lynch Oats, and if Oats flips town we lynch ace, if Oats was miller then we gambled and lost. Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 06:10 layabout wrote:
I feel like my reads are good right now and town is in a good spot but i'm nervous about oatsmaster since i can see him being town and i really don't want us to get screwed by a miller check. Layabout can you lay out the reasons for why you think he's town?
I havent read over Sent too recently but i dont like your train thought so let butt in.
Let me explain it like your 5 years old. (Dont be condescending cause then people can just throw it back in your face.)
Sent was pushing Oats. Unlike what you believe SCUM CAN PUSH EACH OTHER *GASP* (You're like five so you prolly didn't know that)
Also here is another scenario this one is partly off what kita said. Scum sent can just make up reads and use them to change his votes. They don't have to be legitimate reads
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On the other hand Oats tries to suggest that if sentinel is town then i am mafia, which is not how town operates. He actually takes back his prplhz read. I also don't think his reaction to the red check is correct. He isn't playing like somebody that thinks they will die and be confirmed as town. Someone in that position communicates they reads s other can follow up on them. He is trying to get us to kill Ace, his accusor.
+ Show Spoiler [Not really got anything to do with the…] +
We also know that Ace was town cop or is mafia and had cop. Oats is a decent target for an investigate and Ace picking Oats is consistent with Ace's play.
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On June 08 2013 03:33 WaveofShadow wrote:
Good question.
I want to hear more from fuba, and jay.
I also wouldn't mind comments on my reads thus far if people show up, though I know better than to expect it. At least at some point if I get shot maybe then people will look at my reads.
Ugh im struggling with sent as a read. I dont like his flip flop from oats. He was really against oat's push on ace. Then after ace makes the cop claim. Sent just completly reverses.
On one hand I think ace is scum so i like it. But on the other the complete turn around doesn't seem very townie. The reasoning for it too is bad. You shouldn't change your opinion of someones alignment cause your other scum reads voted for your scum read. Because at the end of the day you have no idea whether they are scum or not. Not to mention it was a reverse from someone Sent defended to someone hes trying to lynch now. I honestly don't know what to make of him. But regardless I want to kill ace so. Ill deal with sent tmw.
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The I can't pull it up on my phone but he trolls way closer to being lynched as town unless there are some scum games I haven't seen where he does main difference between town oats and this game that I can tell is oats usually tries a bit harder as scum and is more likely to troll until he's lynched as town.
It's a shitty metric but I can't read him for shit. I always think he's scum, expect the one time I played and he actually was.
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On June 08 2013 03:50 Oatsmaster wrote:
We are lynching Ace cause he fakeclaimed a red check on me.
Dont derail this.
If you derail this, its scummy.
Dont do it
I agree that at the end of the day we should lynch between ace or you oats (I wanna lynch ace) But we should still talk about other reads or activity dies.
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Since your all discussing [UoN]Sentinel i will add that on balance i do not find him suspicious
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On June 07 2013 11:10 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2013 10:52 WaveofShadow wrote:On June 07 2013 10:37 layabout wrote:
If mafia get cop they can always make this play regardless of the roleblock. Following the red check is a risk especially when the cop role is still around and more checks can increase our certainty.
If Ace flips at any point we will know if we can trust his check. A check of Oats on Ace could increase our certainty since if would confirm or deny the claim and we would be hoping the person checked does not get miller. This means Ace will never flip unless we do it ourselves, you know. Or I guess if they're both town. Yeah but lynching either is risky the chance of two town whilst ignoring them grants more checks allowing us to make a better decision. It also reduced the pool of player mafia are likely to shoot at improving the chance of us getting a medic save. We should lynch somebody else. I don't think following the cop is the best play to make in this situation. Especially since the correct(okay strong) play for mafia if they get the cop is to claim a red check.
Given that its very likely that between ace and oats there is one mafia. And we can lower mafia KP if we kill mafia. Why do you suggest not lynching in between these too.
Who would you suggest lynching. Also if you had to pick between Ace and Oats (as you likely will) who would you pick.
You state that you dont want to lynch either. But your not pushing anyone. Or even make your opinions clear. It seems like your just sitting on the sidelines waiting to follow someone else... You scum layabout?
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Might as well do it
[/b]##vote Oatsmaster[b]
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On June 08 2013 06:37 jaybrundage wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 06:13 Vivax wrote:I don't get why you people are even discussing Sentinel for lynch. My post lays out already that he is most likely town, I'll explain it like you're 5 year old: a) He was pushing Oats all along → Unlikely scum with Oats b) He switched to Ace cause two of his scumreads voted Oats → Unlikely scum with ace (and I don't think that scum would be willing to trade cred for a NK) Unless ace and Oats are both town, Sentinel isn't scum, barring any powerplay where he plays exactly the opposite of how he should. We should keep it as simple as possible and lynch Oats, and if Oats flips town we lynch ace, if Oats was miller then we gambled and lost. On June 08 2013 06:10 layabout wrote:
I feel like my reads are good right now and town is in a good spot but i'm nervous about oatsmaster since i can see him being town and i really don't want us to get screwed by a miller check. Layabout can you lay out the reasons for why you think he's town? I havent read over Sent too recently but i dont like your train thought so let butt in. Let me explain it like your 5 years old. (Dont be condescending cause then people can just throw it back in your face.) Sent was pushing Oats. Unlike what you believe SCUM CAN PUSH EACH OTHER *GASP* (You're like five so you prolly didn't know that) Also here is another scenario this one is partly off what kita said. Scum sent can just make up reads and use them to change his votes. They don't have to be legitimate reads
Well, you're free to try and convince me to go for Sentinel. There's always the chance that I'm wrong, and I'd rather hear your arguments for him being scum, rather than to push the improbable option that he was bussing his teammate since really early to distance himself from Oats.
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well that's embarrassing:
##vote Oatsmaster
jay be quiet the issue we are dealing with is Ace vs Oats everyone has made it quite clear that that's the lynch, there is no point pushing somebody else, it just add noise and confusion.
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On June 07 2013 17:18 prplhz wrote:
This really doesn't seem like anything Ace would attempt as scum.
##Vote Oatsmaster
If Ace is scum he can just back out with a Miller MAH BAD bullshit.
If anything if ace is as strong a mafia player as so many say he would just fakeclaim like he did on Oats. Then try to talk him self out the second lynch by saying Oats was miller.
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On June 08 2013 07:03 jaybrundage wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2013 17:18 prplhz wrote:
This really doesn't seem like anything Ace would attempt as scum.
##Vote Oatsmaster If Ace is scum he can just back out with a Miller MAH BAD bullshit. If anything if ace is as strong a mafia player as so many say he would just fakeclaim like he did on Oats. Then try to talk him self out the second lynch by saying Oats was miller.
Do you see anyone here that is actually going to listen to him?
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On June 08 2013 07:03 jaybrundage wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2013 17:18 prplhz wrote:
This really doesn't seem like anything Ace would attempt as scum.
##Vote Oatsmaster If Ace is scum he can just back out with a Miller MAH BAD bullshit. If anything if ace is as strong a mafia player as so many say he would just fakeclaim like he did on Oats. Then try to talk him self out the second lynch by saying Oats was miller.
If Oats flips town we will not know if he was miller last night and the correct thing to do is lynch Ace. There is no way he can back out.
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EPT
