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@Wave:
I already explained how I've come to my current reads, in my filter... It included everyone on that list plus Stutters. In fact, it was in a post addressed directly to you.:
+ Show Spoiler +On May 26 2013 04:18 goodkarma wrote:
@Wave:
Solstice doesn't look that great as far as sheeping Yamato's reads then just sitting on them. I may be giving him too little credit, as part of my assessment of him was that if he were scum, having never played it before he'd reveal it more obviously than here. I mean he does interject his own thoughts on issues, especially related to me as I recall. But that he can just say "what Yamato said," and then not come in and update his reads at all for an entire cycle is pretty unsettling.
I said slight town in my own list post, but maybe null is better. I've always been a bit of a sucker for pro-town players, but pro-town playstyle doesn't mean he isn't scum.
And as for Marv, I'll trust DP that he is town. Between what he and Marv have had to say about his recent lack of posting/concern, I would say it's reasonable that he is town. Which means that it's between Stutters/VA/JJD/Solstice for the scumteam.
As for the Grush thing, I thought through how terrible his life would be if he removed his only towntell from his game to win this game as scum. I mean he could do this, but I don't think he would.
So yeah, it's not a 100% thing, but I'm keeping him in the town column.
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Also:
I was roleblocked last night. Hosts gave me a late PM...
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Last will analysis---something apparently people always forget to do is look at what dead people say. Is there anything common between all of them? I want to see what people said about GK before dying.
Iamp:
GK- I will not be deterred this time i doubt myself just because he was active during the lynch time but e does the same thing every time posts some nice stuff then checks out he justifies then leaves i dont see give and take with the town still so he continues to look like he isnt figuring stuff out.
Obvious mafia kill.
Aside: Marv did specifically tell iamp not to post the logs and I doubt he knows iamp SO well that he knew he could reverse psychology the shit out of him to make him post logs as scum, so my earlier point against him here makes him lean town on this, though still possible that he wanted to look good as scum if he assumed logs could be posted.
Stutters:
On May 27 2013 05:59 Stutters695 wrote:
In case I get shot I'd really look at GK. We're probably fucked but look into him. He's constantly skating around lynches when he should be dead
If we are assuming SK or SK target has to be solstice, then Stutters was mafia NK.
yamato:
On May 23 2013 10:48 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2013 10:46 VayneAuthority wrote:
the sputnik lynch should have never happened, GK has escaped lynching 2 days in a row now. how long will it last? until we lose? What do you think about Marv? I think we've obviously arrived at the conclusion that GK and Dandel are mafia, so let's talk about something else.
A few hours later...
On May 23 2013 17:45 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2013 16:01 DarthPunk wrote:On May 23 2013 15:55 VayneAuthority wrote:
Yea his emotion is a towntell for me as well, but his martyring is a scumtell.
I mean he's not even set to be lynched, doesn't even have a vote on him and hes already being defensive/martyring?
maybe im a shitty player or maybe this is just that obvious.
It's pretty obvious he is a major target, and he had to defend himself since day one. TBH I would much rather lynch dandle for ninja voting and full trolling after BH flipped green. I'm glad your thoughts and mine are aligning on this one. Suddenly not so sure of GK's alignment, lol.
Seems he began to be swayed by GK's ragepost so this might be an exception?
Rayn:
On May 20 2013 21:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Yeah at that time i thought that theory was stupid. Now, given his posts after that and what DP has pointed out, i'm not so sure about it.
On a sidenote, i think GK is more likely to be scum than Dandel and i do not think they are both scum. Maybe i am wrong about WoS or Jarjar, i need to see what they will do on D2.
His last mention of GK is in here, but it's not particularly conclusive imo. Rayn's reads were all over the place and of the two kills that night, was almost certainly SK kill.
Sputnik: Not bothering.
Spicy:
On May 23 2013 21:25 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2013 21:04 marvellosity wrote:
GK actually has relevant points about Spicy, he's been niggling me for a while.
Probably everyone forgot by now but the whole "sputnik is a scumread" -> "sputnik is playing too scummily to be scum" is something pretty concerning really. I said I was getting a scum read on him but that he's playing to scummy so he'll probably flip town. Which is what happened. My wording or phrasing may suck but my ultimate read on him was right. GK's paragraph on me was just rehashing old issues that have already been talked about with the exception of the 3p sk issue which everyone is pure speculating on at this point. I'm still uncomfortable with GK not giving his opinion out because he claimed I was angry. Show nested quote +On May 22 2013 13:03 goodkarma wrote:
As for 3P stuff, BH is getting lynched today, and when I do present my case I would like to do it right. I'm not going to rush it because you're angwy. I probably should have just kept it to myself until I post it, as this kind of thing inevitably happens, but rest assured it will be out there long before it needs to be considered for next lynch. At this point I could lynch Dandel over GK next day. At least GK is responding to posts and constructing arguments.
Voted GK that day and wanted both Dandel and GK dead. This could be where the idea to sacrifice Dandel came from or something (if GK scum)? Was this mafia or SK kill? Confusing motivation if GK is SK.
BH:
On May 23 2013 04:23 Blazinghand wrote:
So, I'm not going to be around for the flip. I'm going to start with my two big townreads.
Marvellosity is town. I have NEVER been more sure of someone being town in my mafia career. Also, he's the only guy who's like never mislynched grush
DarthPunk is town. I'm less sure of this, since he didn't do anything at all for all of D2 (not even really pressuring other people! But I think it's unlikely scum would get all on a townie for a perceived scumslip.
Scumreads:
[b]GK. We all know why. By met and activity and etc.
WoS is scum. He started shitting up the thread as soon as people unvoted me, he's been pushing scum agenda, etc etc.
DI is scum. scroll up to see.
yeah it's a list post, it wont' earn my any cred. GK > WoS > DI in terms of priority
Felt pretty strongly about both me and GK. Was pushing GK all that night and I had to try to force him to talk about me, for what it's worth. Believed VERY strongly in his meta case against GK, though I'm wondering if GK's ragepost would have swayed him any.
I can't determine anything entirely conclusive about this other than the fact that people seem to want GK gone and he's not. Difficult to determine motivation for the kills as well as I'm not sure if it's scum-type-coverup motivation or scum trying to frame GK to make him look worse---which makes sense either if GK was town or if they knew he was SK.
I would love for people to comment on this but for whatever reason no on ever seems to.
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On May 27 2013 23:53 goodkarma wrote:@Wave:I already explained how I've come to my current reads, in my filter... It included everyone on that list plus Stutters. In fact, it was in a post addressed directly to you.: + Show Spoiler +On May 26 2013 04:18 goodkarma wrote:
@Wave:
Solstice doesn't look that great as far as sheeping Yamato's reads then just sitting on them. I may be giving him too little credit, as part of my assessment of him was that if he were scum, having never played it before he'd reveal it more obviously than here. I mean he does interject his own thoughts on issues, especially related to me as I recall. But that he can just say "what Yamato said," and then not come in and update his reads at all for an entire cycle is pretty unsettling.
I said slight town in my own list post, but maybe null is better. I've always been a bit of a sucker for pro-town players, but pro-town playstyle doesn't mean he isn't scum.
And as for Marv, I'll trust DP that he is town. Between what he and Marv have had to say about his recent lack of posting/concern, I would say it's reasonable that he is town. Which means that it's between Stutters/VA/JJD/Solstice for the scumteam. As for the Grush thing, I thought through how terrible his life would be if he removed his only towntell from his game to win this game as scum. I mean he could do this, but I don't think he would. So yeah, it's not a 100% thing, but I'm keeping him in the town column.
I know, but I wanted something updated on solstice since it's been almost 48h since you posted that and *stuff* has happened.
You realize how awful that RB claim is, right?
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On May 28 2013 00:25 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On May 27 2013 23:53 goodkarma wrote:@Wave:I already explained how I've come to my current reads, in my filter... It included everyone on that list plus Stutters. In fact, it was in a post addressed directly to you.: + Show Spoiler +On May 26 2013 04:18 goodkarma wrote:
@Wave:
Solstice doesn't look that great as far as sheeping Yamato's reads then just sitting on them. I may be giving him too little credit, as part of my assessment of him was that if he were scum, having never played it before he'd reveal it more obviously than here. I mean he does interject his own thoughts on issues, especially related to me as I recall. But that he can just say "what Yamato said," and then not come in and update his reads at all for an entire cycle is pretty unsettling.
I said slight town in my own list post, but maybe null is better. I've always been a bit of a sucker for pro-town players, but pro-town playstyle doesn't mean he isn't scum.
And as for Marv, I'll trust DP that he is town. Between what he and Marv have had to say about his recent lack of posting/concern, I would say it's reasonable that he is town. Which means that it's between Stutters/VA/JJD/Solstice for the scumteam. As for the Grush thing, I thought through how terrible his life would be if he removed his only towntell from his game to win this game as scum. I mean he could do this, but I don't think he would. So yeah, it's not a 100% thing, but I'm keeping him in the town column. I know, but I wanted something updated on solstice since it's been almost 48h since you posted that and *stuff* has happened. You realize how awful that RB claim is, right?
The RB claim is not awful because it's true. The fact that both me and Solstice were RB'ed more or less confirms in my mind there is most likely a mafia RB and the JK RB. Stutters most likely JK'ed me last night.
Further, either solstice or myself is SK or scum sent to deal KP and got blocked, mafia hit the SK last night, both mafia and SK hit the same target, or mafia or SK decided not to shoot. Those are all the possibilities. Any speculation that argues one of these to the exclusion of the others is WIFOM.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
Well goodkarma's filter was fucking exhausting, I'll tell you that much
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On May 21 2013 06:13 goodkarma wrote:
I highly doubt there's two town QT-makers. Further, I doubt Rayne was vigi'd, meaning that the presence of three scum and a serial killer is possible. Therefore, BH is likely scum.
##Vote: BH
I keep coming back to this post and the point at which he made it. He was fabricating what the setup was about far before we had any sort of extensive information, I really doubt that any town person makes this post.
What I am trying to figure out is if he is the SK or mafia.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 28 2013 07:22 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2013 06:13 goodkarma wrote:
I highly doubt there's two town QT-makers. Further, I doubt Rayne was vigi'd, meaning that the presence of three scum and a serial killer is possible. Therefore, BH is likely scum.
##Vote: BH I keep coming back to this post and the point at which he made it. He was fabricating what the setup was about far before we had any sort of extensive information, I really doubt that any town person makes this post. What I am trying to figure out is if he is the SK or mafia.
There are a couple of things that make me think mafia, especially how he orders his lynch targets.
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On May 28 2013 07:25 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2013 07:22 VayneAuthority wrote:On May 21 2013 06:13 goodkarma wrote:
I highly doubt there's two town QT-makers. Further, I doubt Rayne was vigi'd, meaning that the presence of three scum and a serial killer is possible. Therefore, BH is likely scum.
##Vote: BH I keep coming back to this post and the point at which he made it. He was fabricating what the setup was about far before we had any sort of extensive information, I really doubt that any town person makes this post. What I am trying to figure out is if he is the SK or mafia. There are a couple of things that make me think mafia, especially how he orders his lynch targets.
Can you elaborate a bit Marv? What about the ordering of his lynch targets says mafia over SK.
WoS-- It can't be a coincidence that just about everyone in this game has wanted to kill GK at some point. This is just a guess, but my gut tells me that he is the SK, and the scum team pegged him early. The best way for them to deal with the SK is to lynch him, for obvious reasons....hence all the heat he has been getting from all sides. From this point onward, the moment scum can get the SK in the noose, they win. It really worries me that GK is such a popular candidate for today. I feel pretty confident that GK is not town, but only marginally confident that he is SK over scum.
Speaking of Marv, he is who I'd like to kill today, but it's not going to happen. DP's vote in particular would be needed, and he is not willing. I'm nervous enough about GK being the SK that I don't want to kill him today.
I'm thinking a Marv/JJ/one of vayne/grush as the remaining scum. As such I'm happy to lynch JJ today with you WoS.
##vote JarJarDrinks
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 28 2013 10:01 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2013 07:25 marvellosity wrote:On May 28 2013 07:22 VayneAuthority wrote:On May 21 2013 06:13 goodkarma wrote:
I highly doubt there's two town QT-makers. Further, I doubt Rayne was vigi'd, meaning that the presence of three scum and a serial killer is possible. Therefore, BH is likely scum.
##Vote: BH I keep coming back to this post and the point at which he made it. He was fabricating what the setup was about far before we had any sort of extensive information, I really doubt that any town person makes this post. What I am trying to figure out is if he is the SK or mafia. There are a couple of things that make me think mafia, especially how he orders his lynch targets. Can you elaborate a bit Marv? What about the ordering of his lynch targets says mafia over SK. WoS-- It can't be a coincidence that just about everyone in this game has wanted to kill GK at some point. This is just a guess, but my gut tells me that he is the SK, and the scum team pegged him early. The best way for them to deal with the SK is to lynch him, for obvious reasons....hence all the heat he has been getting from all sides. From this point onward, the moment scum can get the SK in the noose, they win. It really worries me that GK is such a popular candidate for today. I feel pretty confident that GK is not town, but only marginally confident that he is SK over scum. Speaking of Marv, he is who I'd like to kill today, but it's not going to happen. DP's vote in particular would be needed, and he is not willing. I'm nervous enough about GK being the SK that I don't want to kill him today. I'm thinking a Marv/JJ/one of vayne/grush as the remaining scum. As such I'm happy to lynch JJ today with you WoS. ##vote JarJarDrinks
Ooh, someone here just before I go to bed. How lovely.
Earlyish on Day 1 with the 2 lurkers, he wants to kill sputnik ahead of JJD, before JJD became a scumread. There's a point on day 1 where GK's top scumread suddenly becomes Spicy, and he specifically places him ahead of Jarjar/Dandel - so some townie gets pride of place ahead of 1 (2) mafia.
On to day 2, he wants to lynch Dandel *after* 'claimed scum' BH. He in fact calls Dandel "very very scummy", but apparently 2 town masons is that much more unlikely to him, so despite this BH is his 100% choice of lynch on day 2.
Today he's very much left his options open, there always seems to be a scumteam but we don't actually know who GK wants to lynch.
One interesting thing which may or may not be relevant is that at some point a couple of days ago (or whenever it was) he twice mentioned that he would talk later about who he felt the SK was, but he never followed up on this.
There are a couple of other things that I really don't/didn't like about GK, namely
- he kept making references (at least 3-4 times) to his other scumgames, despite the fact no-one was bringing them up
- he kept using the fact he hadn't read his role PM as a defence
I also noted two things at separate points in his filter, I noted when he went after BH on Day 1 - "jesus fuck does he never end. seeing where the shit sticks?" Then later I note to myself "GK is usually so fucking deliberate, yet he changed targets so many times on day 1." What's interesting is that when he's defending himself, he says
But what you wouldn't have seen is me throwing around votes as hard as I did or changing my stances like I did. I've played enough to know better than to make a bajillion vote switches as scum. I would have been far more cautious.
This was interesting to me because as I recall, it wasn't really anyone's contention that he was mafia for this reason; in fact he brought it up himself as if he was very much aware of it. Also why is it to "know better" not to do this? - often it's a townie trait to switch votes a lot. Just the way he's self-aware of what he's doing and defending himself based on it is pretty dodgy.
Your bolded quote is actually a pretty compelling reason for him to be SK and not mafia though.
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the mafia is just being too obvious here, can it get more obvious that my team of WoS/s0lstice/GK is the remaining scum? if they lynch JJD we will lose. do not let this happen. Its an easy town victory and they are gonna blow it by being so obvious.
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Marv--
That stuff all paints him as pretty scummy. I'm not sure that there's anything specific that says SK over mafia though. You raise a good point in regards to how he hasn't said much of anything about the SK since he said he had a theory and never shared it (presumably because of the whole Dandel thing).
When you get back, let me know where you ended up on JJD.
@GK
Who is the SK?
@Vayne
You are no longer allowed to get away with this
On May 26 2013 06:12 VayneAuthority wrote:
--snip
There's not much to elaborate on with s0lstice, Its simply that; a gut read with some minor quirks in his play early. I havent seen anything particularly scummy past that so there's the chance that I was -GASP- wrong.
GK called you on it already, and you have not satisfactorily explained. We are waaaaay too late into this game for you to not have some ammo behind your scum reads. Explain better, or I'm going to assume it's just a scummy placeholder and you are scum.
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EBWOP: mafia over SK, in the first bit
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On May 28 2013 10:01 s0Lstice wrote:
It can't be a coincidence that just about everyone in this game has wanted to kill GK at some point. This is just a guess, but my gut tells me that he is the SK, and the scum team pegged him early. The best way for them to deal with the SK is to lynch him, for obvious reasons....hence all the heat he has been getting from all sides.
I find it strange that you'd say this and then vote for me since I've been saying that I think GK is town all game.
Like, this is cleary Soltice just putting his vote on the townie that is most likely to be mislynched. I'm gonna reread a bunch tomorrow but I don't really recall him saying I've been scummy @ all this game. Like, can anyone actually read soltices filter and figure out the reason he's voting for me?
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I've defended myself about as much as I care to. If you were to look at the way Dandel must have been "bussing" me if I were scum, it just doesn't fit. He made such a haphazard case that was utterly bad. Like wouldn't he be more likely to coordinate / care about this type of action if we were both scum? It would be far more likely that if we were both scum he wouldn't site reasons for lynching me that don't even exist (a "scumslip" that never happened).
And yeah, if you'd assume I'd lie about a RB, maybe I could be SK. But what would be my motive for lying? And if I only lied once, which would have to be the case, where did the other RB from day 2 go???
Neither theory makes any sense. You pretty much have to assume I'm a compulsive liar to be SK, and Dandel's actions don't really make sense if we're both scum.
And this "He is self-aware of all these things. Therefore, he must be cleverly planning all of this out and tricking us..." kind of logic that seems to be used repeatedly by Marv doesn't really make sense to me. It's like all of this is out there in the open. The SK stuff is especially obvious. Like come on. How hard is it for you guys to figure out I'm not scum? You can talk yourself into some corner that I am some kind of super-clever scumster, or you can just accept that I really don't fit as scum. Maybe I wouldn't have to point this stuff out if you were a little more thorough with your assessment. It deeply bothers me that Marv is pushing this lynch.
As far as vote switching and whatnot scummy stuff you have to say about my filter, I've already discussed where I was coming from on all of that. If you feel that my stances were scummy whatever. I've said all I'm going to on that.
And regarding my early talk about SK theory, I did discuss that a little bit. It was revolving around speculation on the death of Rayne. But really, I didn't have anything more to bring up on that subject than I already did.
To find both SK and scum, my approach has been to use process of elimination to determine who's non-town in this game. I don't feel very good about Marv/Solstice right now. Both have done townie things, and rather non-townie things. I am more confident with JJD/Vayne being non-town right now. And if there's been some "wishy-washy" language here and there, it's because it hasn't been easy for me this game to spot out scum. As such, my assessments and theories have been changing quite a bit.
Whatever happens, we're in LYLO, so we'd best come to some kind of consensus on who to vote today.
I'm most confident with JJD/Vayne being scum.
Solstice I'm a bit more on the fence on. I actually felt some of the arguing he made that DP and Marv were both scum was townie, as I don't visualize a scum sticking his neck out like that. Yet... up until that point he seemed to blend in so darned well...
I'll sheep Wave, who I'm confident is town.:
##Vote: JJD
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On May 28 2013 11:59 s0Lstice wrote:Marv-- That stuff all paints him as pretty scummy. I'm not sure that there's anything specific that says SK over mafia though. You raise a good point in regards to how he hasn't said much of anything about the SK since he said he had a theory and never shared it (presumably because of the whole Dandel thing). When you get back, let me know where you ended up on JJD. @GK Who is the SK? @Vayne You are no longer allowed to get away with this Show nested quote +On May 26 2013 06:12 VayneAuthority wrote:
--snip
There's not much to elaborate on with s0lstice, Its simply that; a gut read with some minor quirks in his play early. I havent seen anything particularly scummy past that so there's the chance that I was -GASP- wrong.
GK called you on it already, and you have not satisfactorily explained. We are waaaaay too late into this game for you to not have some ammo behind your scum reads. Explain better, or I'm going to assume it's just a scummy placeholder and you are scum.
why exactly do I care what you and your scumbuddy think? I don't need to explain shit when its clear as daylight what you guys are trying to do, lynch a lurker to end this just like you started it with sputnik.
You've been floating under the radar for the entire game not really giving much of anything in opinions but now you are soft defending GK and having your most cleared (WoS) start your bandwagon and when its safe enough both of you are gonna hop on. Don't even try to fuck with me.
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I stand corrected, you both already hopped on the bandwagon lawl.
I've been saying how late votes are scummy all game so you're getting them in early I see how it is
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On May 28 2013 12:53 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2013 11:59 s0Lstice wrote:Marv-- That stuff all paints him as pretty scummy. I'm not sure that there's anything specific that says SK over mafia though. You raise a good point in regards to how he hasn't said much of anything about the SK since he said he had a theory and never shared it (presumably because of the whole Dandel thing). When you get back, let me know where you ended up on JJD. @GK Who is the SK? @Vayne You are no longer allowed to get away with this On May 26 2013 06:12 VayneAuthority wrote:
--snip
There's not much to elaborate on with s0lstice, Its simply that; a gut read with some minor quirks in his play early. I havent seen anything particularly scummy past that so there's the chance that I was -GASP- wrong.
GK called you on it already, and you have not satisfactorily explained. We are waaaaay too late into this game for you to not have some ammo behind your scum reads. Explain better, or I'm going to assume it's just a scummy placeholder and you are scum. why exactly do I care what you and your scumbuddy think? I don't need to explain shit when its clear as daylight what you guys are trying to do, lynch a lurker to end this just like you started it with sputnik. You've been floating under the radar for the entire game not really giving much of anything in opinions but now you are soft defending GK and having your most cleared (WoS) start your bandwagon and when its safe enough both of you are gonna hop on. Don't even try to fuck with me.
Methinks I see a contradiction here, Vayne. Am I town or scum?
Also come on, dude, use your brain. Do you truly and honestly think the entire scumteam are going to be the very first onto a mislynch wagon? This isn't NMM 39.
To be fair, I don't see a hell of a lot of reasoning for sheeping me coming from either solstice or GK so there could definitely be something up. (GK's vote is obvious either way; it's likely either him or JJD today.) Anyway I'm pretty damn confident in your towniness, so join the wagon of justice, breh.
DP what-cha been up to lately?
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On May 28 2013 12:44 JarJarDrinks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2013 10:01 s0Lstice wrote:
It can't be a coincidence that just about everyone in this game has wanted to kill GK at some point. This is just a guess, but my gut tells me that he is the SK, and the scum team pegged him early. The best way for them to deal with the SK is to lynch him, for obvious reasons....hence all the heat he has been getting from all sides.
I find it strange that you'd say this and then vote for me since I've been saying that I think GK is town all game. Like, this is cleary Soltice just putting his vote on the townie that is most likely to be mislynched. I'm gonna reread a bunch tomorrow but I don't really recall him saying I've been scummy @ all this game. Like, can anyone actually read soltices filter and figure out the reason he's voting for me?
Like, look at this shit.
When did he EVER mention Solstice before this point?
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Actually, that's pretty interesting.
WARNING: PRE-FLIP ASSOCIATION
Very easy upon his red flip to give Solstice easy towncred with the reverse suspicion. Completely distanced himself from Solstice all game and solstice himself flip-flops constantly throughout the game as to whether or not JJD is town or scum.
Hmmmm.
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EPT
