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strongandbig
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if you gave everyone in the game a gun | ||
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then you will know true chaos | ||
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On May 10 2013 06:43 ObviousOne wrote: I drew role cop FYI nope i did ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/PZYqygl.png) | ||
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On May 11 2013 08:52 ObviousOne wrote: http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/09/world/asia/australia-missing-cruise-passengers/index.html?hpt=hp_t2 holy shit ace thats taking mafia to a whole other level | ||
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On May 13 2013 05:41 DarthPunk wrote: That is actually true that miller is an auto town claim in C9++ or other open set ups but it is still a good town play to claim straight away in my opinion and others. I am not an excellent policy lynch though, I am a bad lynch period. If you want to kill me use a vig shot. Otherwise wait a while and see. Lynching me straight up is just silly. And I would never claim anything day one as scum, let alone somethign as batshit crazy to claim as miller in a closed setup. I might crumb something. My one and only fake claim was basically forced out of me AFTER I crumbed it and AFTER everyone mass claimed and were pressuring me to follow suit. like just apply some thought to claiming miller this early as scum in a game which most likely contains vigilantes there is no follow up or promotion of a mafia agenda by doing this. it is plain suicide. this is really stupid. I am always extremely suspicious of people who say this, it doesn't make any sense. On May 13 2013 03:34 Oatsmaster wrote: I say at the start of the day. Everyone ##Vote: SOMEONE then the person with the majority in any way gets to fight for their life. Sounds like a great idea right? YEAH  I like this idea though. way better than someone doing something stupid and then saying "it was something stupid on purpose to judge reactions trolol" | ||
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On May 13 2013 08:14 ObviousOne wrote: VE what do you make of me being strongly in favor of lynching DP if he doesn't die tonight? Same question at you BH. i will answer your question i happen to agree with dp on the subejct of millers shoudl claiming therefore i think you are being stupid your question has been asnwered | ||
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On May 13 2013 08:39 Blazinghand wrote: get dunked ![[image loading]](http://25.media.tumblr.com/ab97fdfb66bfbe4031f3f6b9fe44a039/tumblr_mhog0srM5J1s3v8rqo1_400.gif) | ||
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On May 13 2013 14:30 ObviousOne wrote: @SNB Hi, your town credit via gif just expired, let's hear you give the old scum hunting a whirl. Who do you want to vote today, and why, lay it out for me along with another suspect. So far your contributions add up to what looks like a 180 on DP (you call his statement that he is a bad policy lynch suspicious but then tell me that lynching him D1 if he doesn't die N0 is stupid) in a matter of a handful of posts and your stance on him was never clear. The conversation immediately got buried by gifs, so it's time for you to take a stance on something. Go. regarding the "flipflop" - lolno. I can simultaneously believe that him saying "i'm a bad lynch" is stupid and that you saying "we should lynch him if he doesn't die n0 because of his miller claim" is stupid. those are both stupid things to say. like, anyone who thinks they have a coherent theory of the scum team at this point is lying either to you or to themselves. we have no flipped scum to build association cases on, we dont even have any really good cases on individual players to build associations on. this is still the stage of the game where we should be looking at everyone who does something scummy or suspicious, even if those scummy things are conflicting. anyway i thought i made my stance on him pretty clear when i said i agreed with his reasoning for claiming miller. his claim was the main reason people wanted to lynch him afaik, so if i'm saying i think that he was right and they were wrong, i probably dont want to lynch him. | ||
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On May 13 2013 23:38 Oatsmaster wrote: I say we lynch him for this really fucking bad attitude and promises that he is giving. I dont like promises. this may be the single worst post in the thread | ||
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On May 13 2013 13:51 Oatsmaster wrote: Also someone stole my fucking vote  . Joke's on them though, I never actually vote for scum. how did this go by without any comment not having played in many games with vote stealers before I don't know what the analysis is, but why would someone steal oats's vote? instead of someone who is actually good at finding scum? Does fakeclaiming having your vote stolen give an excuse to insta-hammer someone? it seems like a decent scum tactic. I really don't like the way this claim went down. | ||
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On May 13 2013 15:46 Oatsmaster wrote: I have no clue what it means You are saying that DP fakeclaimed right? And rayn is saying that Wall-street investor could be scum.Right. That makes no sense because I assume he thinks that DP's role, Self aware miller could be a scum role. Which it cant cause DUHHHH. So rayn scum slipped kinda. But its not really scummy the way he phrased that. TLDR: Rayn scumslipped. the way this is treated is nonsensical from a town point of view. if you think you found a scumslip you should go for the throat. like, it doesn't matter that this makes no sense, i've thought things were scumslips before that turned out not to be. but the way it's put across doesn't make any sense from a town point of view. either he's just saying things for the sake of saying them or he's throwing out a "scumslip" to see who bites. do not want. | ||
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On May 13 2013 22:55 Oatsmaster wrote: Lets get a wagon rolling ##Vote: WaveofShadow i mean then there's this | ||
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On May 13 2013 23:38 Oatsmaster wrote: I say we lynch him for this really fucking bad attitude and promises that he is giving. I dont like promises. and we return to the single worst post in the thread. so @sloosh's question from above i'll look at the other dudes in a minute but my thoughts on oatsmaster are no gusta. | ||
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this post is needlessly aggro, doesn't really make sense given his position. On May 14 2013 00:42 WaveofShadow wrote: I'm bored with your lessons and you telling me how to play. I haven't had the time to do much game analysis yet but I will. Expect it later. I've said these things before and I'll say them again: I never lie, and I don't respond to threats. If you and everyone else would rather lynch me first then go ahead by all means. this is a good argument by prome On May 13 2013 17:09 Promethelax wrote: If you are town there is exactly one thing to make of this. Stating it like this is much more of a 'look I'm townie too' gesture than a 'interesting we agree on everything, I find you town' post should be. WoS doesn't even develop a read on BH, as town your goal should be to discern everyone's alignment but he is not trying to read bh, just telling him that they share thoughts. however i'm not sure that i like bh's reason for voting wos On May 13 2013 18:06 Blazinghand wrote: lol wut OK real talk you can't go and say "that's s post s newbie would make" and also be like "also he has been worthless" and also be like "but let's not lynch him' WoS is no Marvellosity but hes no kushm4sta either. there's a pretty obvious explanation to his post there: blatant attempt to buddy me and hide in the shadow of my analysis. his isn't a post that helps town or hunts scum. he's just trying to blend in. there's an easy solution to that. ##vote WoS i cant tell whether the bolded part is serious or bh ego-ing as usual. but on the other hand, when people try and buddy bh if he's egoing he usually is all like 'yesssss buddy me you fools' but i dont really like that bh is all like 'my analysis brings all the boys to the yard' but then doesn't really analisysify other than just being like "yeah prome i vote for that thing" roundabout way of saying i'm not convinced by bh's reason for voting. On May 14 2013 00:08 VisceraEyes wrote: No he's scum for not giving a shit about helping town. He's scum for jokingly claiming scum when called out by a player who has the clout to get him lynched. The "stank" I'm referring to is a confidence, an inner strength in his posting...a singular point in his favor that is overshadowed by his unwillingness to help town by playing in a transparent and open way. Plus he claimed scum - it doesn't get much easier than that Oats. on the other hand i kinda like this better. although maybe i'm being influenced by the fact that oatsmaster didnt like this post. but the argument "he didn't respond to kita except jokingly makes it seem like he knew he could kill kita and not have to worry about his suspicions" and "hes blatantly not trying to help town" are reasons i find way more compelling than "he buddied me in this one post". overall, looking at his filter it looks pretty bad, but i'm not persuaded much by the reasons people gave for voting him except for VE, and i think oatsmaster's vote was the worst. like he's not playing like a townie but plenty of townies dont do that. the kita thing is the strongest argument against him imo. i would call him suspicious but im not yet near the voting for him threshold and i think oatsmaster looks worse. | ||
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On May 14 2013 01:28 VayneAuthority wrote: recall that I played in this game http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=67925 so I dont see how its hilarious, I know about big games. You will just never see me as a guy going back looking through the thread, I read it as the thread develops and make my opinions from that and take care not to second guess myself. As I said I am baffled by the DP kill, I have nothing to comment on that besides my theory that mafia thought he was hiding a PR role behind his claim, but no leads on to who that could make mafia Joined TL.net Thursday, 18th of October 2012 PBU or very well-prepared smurf? | ||
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On May 14 2013 06:03 Blazinghand wrote: Almost! I want to lynch WoS for HOW he agreed with me that scum killed DP, and I want to not lynch vayne because HOW he did his 180 on flip analysis. Perhaps I didn't make this clear enough in my case: Whether someone buddies me, or whether someone disagrees with me, or whether someone derps or is wrong or is right, these are not how you catch scum. Scum can fake agreeing or disagreeing or being good or being bad as much as they want. A scum player could just bus all his buddies and pretend to be a master scumhunter, if all you look at is who he pushes and who he defends. I'm not saying this isn't useful information (since scum obviously don't want to bus) but this is only part of the picture. When you hunt scum, you need to pay attention to HOW people do things, and what they are thinking (or not thinking) when they do. WoS's post, imo, could not have come from a town mindset. I don't think he'd have written what he did the way he did if he really was town and was wondering why we were in agreement. Vayne, on the other hand, really just seems to be that wrongheaded, and although I don't think of him as captain mctown, i can see how from a town PoV Vayne has written what he has. This is how you hunt scum. it's not the actions that matter, it's the method behind the actions? right bh? | ||
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On May 14 2013 01:11 strongandbig wrote: this may be the single worst post in the thread On May 14 2013 01:16 strongandbig wrote: how did this go by without any comment not having played in many games with vote stealers before I don't know what the analysis is, but why would someone steal oats's vote? instead of someone who is actually good at finding scum? Does fakeclaiming having your vote stolen give an excuse to insta-hammer someone? it seems like a decent scum tactic. I really don't like the way this claim went down. On May 14 2013 01:18 strongandbig wrote: the way this is treated is nonsensical from a town point of view. if you think you found a scumslip you should go for the throat. like, it doesn't matter that this makes no sense, i've thought things were scumslips before that turned out not to be. but the way it's put across doesn't make any sense from a town point of view. either he's just saying things for the sake of saying them or he's throwing out a "scumslip" to see who bites. do not want. On May 14 2013 01:20 strongandbig wrote: and we return to the single worst post in the thread. so @sloosh's question from above i'll look at the other dudes in a minute but my thoughts on oatsmaster are no gusta. | ||
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On May 14 2013 07:12 Vivax wrote: It's the method, you mean. I speak for BH in his absence Come vote WoS. /dunked if you tell read oatsmaster and tell me what you think of my attack, i promise i will read your filter and tell you what i think of your attack on wos | ||
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On May 12 2013 19:48 Bill Murray wrote: hi guys ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/7Hbrlxz.png) pubic service announcement bill murray is signed up for this game and also he posted | ||
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guess i need to be more like bh if i want people to talk about my arguments Anyway I'm gonna do something else so I dont just tunnel him for all of time question for shirokami: I see you posting a bunch of one-liners about how you agree with bh's case on wos. Could you give me your second best scum read and why? Or maybe read someone else's case on their scumread and tell me why they are wrong? Same question for vayneauthority except with wos replaced by prplhz. Responding to a question asked of me: On May 14 2013 09:07 WaveofShadow wrote: Funny pic is always +1 to town in my book. y u no vote Oats, SnB? I generally don't like to vote until I'm pretty serious about killing someone. I'd like for some more people to tell me what they think about Oats before I decide whether to commit to voting him. My opinion on someone else that has votes on him: I quite like Sloosh's case on Ryan: + Show Spoiler + On May 14 2013 10:42 slOosh wrote: The last votecount should have WoS at [L-6] We need to start consolidating our votes. 6 wagons with a handful of people who I can't recall posting is a recipe for disaster. I really would like more discussion on rayn than "he is good if not we can kill him later". 1) I have no idea how good he is, and even if he was good, there's no reason to give "good players" a "free multi day pass". 2) This doesn't actually work. In Liquid City Mafia, I was caught and exposed early by BloodyCobbler because of my weak scum play, yet no one actually lynched me. 3) Traditionally mafia KP is based upon mafia #. Lowering mafia # lowers mafia KP. His re-entry into the thread has 3 red flags: Flag 1: There is 0 contribution in this post. He sheeps Prome, comments that he doesn't like OO's analysis on himself but neglects to give any concrete proof or explanation, pre-emptively shirks responsibility for making a correct lynch by saying that he cannot read him, admits to ignoring him, and still concludes that he is a good lynch. Flag 2: From memory or reread, look at the people who find rayn suspicious. Ok. Now look at the things / people he chooses to address. Ok. Notice the discrepancy? He totally fails to address me. The one who (arguably) made the most clear cut, straightforward case against him. Instead of addressing this primary suspicion on him, he chooses to instead address Vivax's fake - role name business, which wasn't even the primary source of suspicion on him. This is cherry picking; this is sidestepping. Flag 3: False "contribution". I don't remember who said this, but they said they liked rayn's most recent contributions. Well they should read again. Pick out just how many of his posts are questions. Those posts are not alignment telling - scum can do it no problem because it's so easy. In fact I resort to asking questions as scum because it's safe and I know I won't get flak for it, but it makes it look like I'm participating in discussion. You have to look into purpose and motivation behind the questions. The ultimate difference in scum and town is that town want scum dead while scum want to look like they want scum dead. Therefore, the ultimate heuristic in finding scum is to ask "are they actually trying to get scum lynched?" From his filter, rayn's only "meaningful" suspicion is on OO. You can see this because he tries to get people to focus on OO. However, they are in the form of "what do you think of OO? why not lynch him?", when he himself had given no proper reasoning to lynching him. There is no honest effort to make players understand his view of OO. It is uncertain if he actually wants OO (or anyone in particular) lynched or not. Makings of scum play - as long as it isn't scum, they don't care where the lynch lands. Everyone who hasn't, and everyone who has needs to give their updated views on rayn. If you want to push for someone else, you best have something more than a 1 liner saying "he looks bad". Rayne did respond to this but I don't find his response sufficient: + Show Spoiler + On May 15 2013 02:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: First, Sloosh and your case: + Show Spoiler + On May 14 2013 00:55 slOosh wrote: How can it be both a bad vig shot and a bad scum shot? This makes no sense at all. In light of the DarthPunk flip I went back and reread people's stances on him. Because he had so much spotlight on him, scum would be compelled to make an opinion on him, or at least comment on him. What is important is to see how people justify their suspicions / read on him - town players have straightforward explanations while mafia try to make stuff up. Out of them, rayn sticks out the most: (1)This is a classic mafia tactic. Push and lynch people for being bad, not scum. (2)Here rayn implicitly calls DarthPunk mafia without actually doing so. He is pushing the idea that because it is "not optimal" that he is scum upon a ridiculous premise. "If you are town you shouldn't be checked". Read that out loud to yourself. It's nonsense. If that was the case then cops would always land red checks. Rayn is justifying his vote with bad (read non existent) reasoning. (3)Avoiding giving opinions on kitaman(!!!) and draws attention back on DarthPunk. Then proceeds to ask a loaded question. (4)Another loaded question, pushing suspicion on him without any justification. ##Vote raynpelikoneet 1) No it's not. It's an opinion that i expressed as simple as it was possible. I think claiming miller in a setup where the number (or existance) of millers is not known is stupid or scum. 2) The bolded part you quoted; I think as town you should play as pro-town as possible, right? Cops do not check people they think are town right? I didn't understand why DP, at the start of the game, was worried about being checked by a cop. For me it seemed like he was scum who was afraid of being checked. I hope you get what i mean. 3 and 4) As is said, i unfortunately have limited time. I was not interested in kitaman at that time, i did not know what to make of him calling WoS scum that early in the game, so i ignored it. I wanted to hear more from DP, and wanted him to do something else than to defend himself. Everyone was discussing him at that moment, i wanted to know what else than his claim was on his mind. If i got something else to clarify to you, ask me. About why i am voting for OO: What Prome said about OO and OO having an explanation to the DP night kill. In top of that DP was suspicious of OO, makes sense. Another thing that's very very odd from OO: OO called me out for meta reasons. I then posted in thread that i have a tight work schedule. What does OO answer: In my opinion this has nothing to do with meta, at all. If i post less i post less, but i still act as i usually do whatever my alignment is. OO is dropping his meta scum-read on me because of my work schedule. How does that make sense? Right, it doesn't, unless he knows i'm town and made up a meta read on me before i was even able to fully contribute to anything but DP-stuff. shiro: You are saying that if WoS is town i am scum. How does that make sense? Are you saying i am not able to form town reads on people other people think is scum? I have given my reasons why i think WoS is town, are they bullshit? Elaborate please. Ryan doesn't address two of Sloosh's stronger points: that Ryan is asking more questions than he is making contributions or providing opinions, in such a way as to appear to be contributing without actually contributing, and that he's not engaging with his serious opponents but instead cherry-picking weaker posts to respond to. That said I like that ryan is actually taking a serious look at oatsmaster, who i still think is more likely to be scum. | ||
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On May 15 2013 03:44 VisceraEyes wrote: Omg you two. BH the more this goes on the more I start to dubt my read of you. :/ Widen your gaze a little bit. Who else is scum? Who knows...maybe if so.eone agrees with ur further targets they'll be more inclined to vote with you today. OR maybe you'll find someone else is a better target. Like VayneAuthprity for instance. VE i cant tell are you seriously pushing on VA or not? If it's serious i gotta say, his vote on prplhz for low amounts of reasoning looks a lot like your vote on him for low amoutns of reasoning. can you post more than "i dont like his vote on prplhz"? | ||
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On May 15 2013 04:02 WaveofShadow wrote: See this is exactly what I mean. WTF is this? Look at how many of my posts are about Oats. How can I take this fucking game seriously? true but no one is listening to you, so it doesn't really help - i want to get some discussion on him. what does me leaving you out have to do with taking the game seriously? like, huh? On May 15 2013 04:02 VayneAuthority wrote: Dont understand your question since I started the prplhz scumread, please rephrase your question. Could you either post a second scumread and explanation for it, or evaluate one of the cases someone else has made on someone with votes on them, and explain why you disagree | ||
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On May 15 2013 05:24 grush57 wrote: Yea but you're just tunneling him with bad reasons. However no one else has a better option and d1 sucks so thats why so many votes are on WoS. do you have a better idea plz post scumread also shirokami answer my question plzkthxbai | ||
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Still rather lynch scum though. Killing oats FTW! | ||
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##vote: oatsmaster i will be around to consolidate in a few hours if need be but we need to start getting some votes up in this biatch | ||
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On May 15 2013 11:54 WaveofShadow wrote: We have an hour. I don't even think enough people are going to show up to lynchtime for consolidation to even be possible. I'll do my part simply because I want to see a flip. Sorry OO. I'm not convinced of your scumminess but to me you're the scummiest out of the likely candidates and I want to see a flip. ##Vote: ObviousOne i sort of agree with this but also there's the whole stupid martyring thing to consider ##vote: obviousone | ||
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On May 15 2013 11:54 WaveofShadow wrote: We have an hour. I don't even think enough people are going to show up to lynchtime for consolidation to even be possible. I'll do my part simply because I want to see a flip. Sorry OO. I'm not convinced of your scumminess but to me you're the scummiest out of the likely candidates and I want to see a flip. ##Vote: ObviousOne i sort of agree with this but also there's the whole stupid martyring thing to consider ##unvote ##vote: obviousone | ||
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because i was already voting you but you seem unlikely to ge tlynched in the next thirteen minutes | ||
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On May 15 2013 18:00 ObviousOne wrote: Earlier in the game I posted that I had some suspicion on SNB for lack of scum hunting. He ended up tunneling Oatsmaster a lot. I still think this is a scumslip: His points against Oats: -for oats wanting to kill people with anti town attitudes (i see nothing wrong with oats' opinion on this) -for oats claiming his vote was stolen (he's not hiding information from town, why expose there was a vote steal if his mafia teammate has it?) -for oats using flavor (role name given to player) to determine scumslips (okay that's crazy by oats, but crazy is not alignment indicative for oats lol, and it was an amusing angle in looking at Rayn) -for helping to get a wagon on WOS started (at least spurring the town to action, intent is to get people to take sides on a wagon, progressive move) In short, I find his case/points garbage and I want other people to take a look at him to hear if they think his points are garbage. Okay let's talk about this stuff - Wanting to kill people who "have a bad attitude" or who "are making promises" are classic scum tactics. Scum need to find someone to kill for a reason other than that they are scum, and this is often taken as an easy out. The reason that's the scummiest and worst post in the thread is that oats is trying to pass this off as normal. - I don't care that oats claimed that his vote was stolen, I care that he just casually passed it off without bringing any attention or analysis to it. It's a scummy way to make a claim of kind of an unusual role-mechanic. - It's not the way that oats came to the conclusion that rayn had scumslipped, it's how he reacted to the supposed scumslip. If you're a townie and you think someone has scumslipped, you jump all over them. You explain why it's a scumslip, you bring it to people's attention, you try and get that scum killed. Instead oats just casually threw out "hey doods its a scum slip," without pursuing it or even explaining what the scumslip was. - finally, if you really think voting someone early, in an instant-majority game, without explaining yourself further than "let's get this wagon rolling" is a good townie way to play, I would hate to live in a town where you were in charge. The scum motivation for that kind of vote is totally clear. in short i find your opinion on my points to be garbage. qed | ||
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On May 16 2013 00:25 shirokami wrote: Im waiting for more than words against words. shirokami you really haven't said anything about anything anyone else has said - could you do that please? Maybe comment on my oats case or do some analysis that is more than a couple of lines long? | ||
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On May 15 2013 08:51 Promethelax wrote: SnB: why is it that you disagree with the town tell I have brought up about Oats? How much have you played with him before? The kid is a bit all over the place, though I love him he ccan be an idiot and the 180s and calling out his own scumminess are both present in his town games as well as his scum games. didnt get to this earlier, but i assume you're talking about his reaction to DP's death - I think that given that DP was under pretty heavy pressure, we all acknowledged that it was a bit of an odd NK for scum; i could see scum posting what DP did even if it was a scum nk, since they might think it's possible to convince town it's a vig shot. it's also still possible that it was a vig shot - scum most likely do have 2kp as you say, but it's possible that one of them was medic blocked n1, or that kita jailkept a scum and rb'd a shot, or who knows what. closed setup -> i'd rather rely on my analysis of oats's actions than his reaction to an nk. | ||
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On May 16 2013 04:04 ObviousOne wrote: He has played thread police and that's about as useful as he's been, from memory. I too would like to see more. hey oo lets work together for a minute! what do you think about chaoser? he's been kind of a non-entity most of this game but there's still some stuff there to read - do you think all his questions are genuinely pro-town or are just contributing for the sake of it? I think many of his questions don't actually have a clear path to helping uncover someone's alignment. I also think it's kind of odd how he first attacks prome's reasoning for calling you scum, then casually says he's cool with your wagon, but never actually votes you. | ||
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On May 16 2013 04:14 ObviousOne wrote: He strikes me as odd but my gut was saying he was laying low as town. He gets mentioned now and then in the game but really is under the radar. He is definitely someone I also hope to see more from today or I might attribute his lack of engagement to hiding as mafia. Side question since I don't really know him: does he usually shine like a radiant beacon of towniness as town, if you happen to know? yeah i agree with the bolded sentence exactly. I don't know how laying low can be seen as pro-town, and a lot of his questions seem tangential to me, but he also tells everyone not to clog up the thread. For your question, I don't actually know much about his play, he was around when I started playing but I haven't played much with him that I remember. Better to ask VE, BH, or prp, they've all been around a lot longer than I have | ||
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On May 16 2013 04:23 VayneAuthority wrote: alright serious face. If you guys are really intent on visceraeyes being a good player (I cant meta this) then he is honestly really suspicious and not just for omgus reasons. just take one look at his voting history this past day, he was pretty much up to lynch just about anyone and anything. Bounced around so much you cant even get any info on him when he flips later. Completely disassociated himself from his voting and seemed indifferent at actually lynching town or scum. ve is a really inconsistent player, sometimes he's really good and sometimes he isn't. but he's not one of those consistently really good players | ||
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On May 16 2013 12:43 Oatsmaster wrote: Or you didnt read the 'bad' attitude? Coupled with the previous scummiest, that tipped the balance for me. Kind sir, can you elaborate on the kind of analysis that you want from a pm that I got saying 'your vote is stolen today''? Yeah, you would think as scum that I would go all out on that scumslip right? Funny huh, how Im not playing like mafia. I dont think scumslips actually exist further than info that they shouldnt know like number of mafia in a closed setup game and stuff like that. That was not the case. Except I can unvote. And unvote. And vote for someone else. Why didnt you bring this up when I first did it if you thought it was objectively scummy?(it isnt.) Okay i find none of this stuff convincing. - the worst post in the thread is still persuasive to me. No matter how bad the attitude was, wanting to kill him for it is clearly scum motivated and not town motivated. - i dunno about the analysis, i would at least have expected you to talk about why you specifically had your vote stolen or whether it was by scum or what. But I was more worried that you completely dropped it when no one responded. It's kind of a big deal ("your voice and your vote" or whatever the standard normal-game VT pm says) - if you didn't really think ryan had scumslipped, why did you call it that? That's exactly what I accused you of doing earlier, just throwing out "hay guise its a scumslip" to see how everyone reacts. - and your justification of your unexplained throwaway bandwagon vote is that you didn't really mean it? Okay then. not doing yourself any favors. | ||
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On May 17 2013 00:04 Promethelax wrote: I want to see this SnB/OO tiff play out. SnB, what do you think about the oats vote steal and what did occur if he is scum. I doubt a townie would use votesteal d1 since d1 wagons are a big part of how one analyses the game and taking away a vote from scum is awful. Both OO and SnB want more from Shiro, don't we all. SnB bringing up Chaoser is +1 in my book, where the hell is that guy? VE never followed up on me asking about him (though neither did I). VE, BH, prp and SnB (and maaaaybe hiro?)you guys have been around long enough to know Chaoser, I'd love some insight. okay so this is the first thing that makes me really wonder about oatsmaster being scum. Let me break it down for you guys: there are three possibilities here:
I consider the first of these options extremely unlikely; much less likely than either of the other two. First, votesteal is almost a useless power for townies; and it's very weird that someone would've used it D1. So let's say that oats's vote was stolen by scum; why didn't they use it to hammer OO? If he's town, it's free KP for them. Conclusion: he's scum. On the other hand, we have the case where oat's vote wasn't stolen by scum or town. Well, clearly his vote didn't count yesterday? If his vote wasn't stolen, then that would have to mean that his vote was canceled for some other reason. By far the most likely case where that happens is the case where he's scum - there's a clear scum motivation for having your vote not count. You can jump on your teammates' bandwagons all you want; you can ignore attacks on your voting record by just saying "oh my vote was stolen"; and it makes you look townie if you can persuade people that your vote was stolen by the scum team. So, I think we have a pretty good choice here. Between OO and Oats, I think we have a scum. | ||
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On May 17 2013 03:25 Promethelax wrote: What do you you think a out VE? And you left out the last (and least likely) option: oats is ????, OO is town. Scum wanted another day wasted on lynching OO since they have two night kills (pretty sure about this, Vivax shooting vayne makes sense) a no lynch into no discussion lynch of the player from day one s a benefit to them. i can talk about ve for a minute but i have an essay to write. so here's the thing. i've seen ve play great games and i've seen him play terrible terrible games. so the "not living up to the rep" argument doesn't persuade me with him. that said, his push on vayne looks terrible. poorly reasoned at first, and then when he went into more words about it, it was still poorly reasoned. vayne at the time didn't really look much different from other lurkers, eg shirokami or prplhz or whoever, i'm not going back through to figure it out. but the thing is, there were a bunch of players who all had exactly one scum read, were sheeping to get that scum read, and didnt really do anything to push it. That's not the kind of stuff i would expect from VE. makes me really hesitant to say that i think he's town. on the other hand, i don't entirely see the comparison to your thing from that other game. or rather, i see it today out of ve, with the apology-for-not-reading post and the OO case which largely follows yours, but yesterday i see a different kind of bad play; the va case was atrocious, but unless i'm misremembering something it was original work out of ve. Plus there's the fact that he actually has been keeping up with the thread. I know you said your meta case wasn't based on activity, but that is a difference between that game and this game. At least his filter is decently longer than mine, and so far afaik no one's accused me of lurking or whatever. plus it kind of helps that i feel his (and your, from before) case on oo. it's pretty clear that his martyring was opportunistic rather than genuine. while i think we've all seen frustrated townies martyr, when does a townie martyr as a tactic? (aside: according to your ginormous list post, it looks like the reasons you think he's town are that he was making sense with some of his townreads and that he's been putting in more effort than you'd expect from him as scum. I can see where you're coming from but i don't see those points as super convincing, scum can always be good at townreads and for whatever reason oo appears to care enough about this game to tactically martyr, so i don't think putting in extra effort is out of the question for him.) Anyway, here's the conclusion to this ramble. I think there is plenty of reason to be suspicious of VE, and if he doesn't come back with anything better, I would probably rank him as someone I would be okay with killing. However, I don't think the meta-case you quoted is as slam-dunk as you think it is, because I don't think VE completely fits that pattern. More importantly, I think we have a really good shot at hitting scum between OO and Oats. I suppose you're right that scum might have kept OO alive to fuck with town for an extra day, but I find that pretty unlikely; from a scum perspective, I think a mislynch is pretty much always better than a no-lynch, it gives plenty of ammo for them to go after the townies who pushed the mislynch plus it's free extra KP. If the vote really was stolen, I find it pretty unlikely that scum would've decided to waste it unless OO is scum. And if the vote wasn't really stolen, we get back to my analysis from above. kk laters | ||
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On May 17 2013 03:31 HiroPro wrote: there's nothing about the politician that says they have to be mafia. it's entirely possible that they're town - i can think of at least two games that I've played in with a town politician. second, the deadline is at such a unusual time that even if the politician was mafia and obviousone was town, they simply might not have been around to move it from me to obvious. then there are some people in this game who seem to believe that it's better to lynch someone that's town than to have a no-lynch on d1, a mafia politician like that might even think it's a good idea to leave a town player alive. okay this then essay (1) yes its possible that there is a town politician, its also unlikely. then, if the politician is town, its also unlikely that they would use their power on D1, since that pretty much only hurts town. two unlikely situations -> yes it's possible but i'm comfortable discounting it unless someone claims compulsive town politician or something. (2) if mafia had a stolen vote, i think it's pretty likely that at least one of them would have been around for deadline, or that they would've sent a conditional pm to ace, or something. possible, but much less likely than that either oo or oats is scum. (3) i talked about the mafia maybe wanting a no lynch thing above, i also think that's improbable. you have to remember, we already have compelling reasons for thinking either or both of oo/oats are scum, the votesteal thing is just the icing on the cake | ||
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I guess I'm also curious to hear from Prome what impact this new VE stuff has on his case on him. like it seems outside of the normal scum Ve meta but that could just be him trying to get out of the case? but it looks pretty genuine? so I want to hear what prome has to say. Since I wasn't totally convinced before, I'm still not feeling scum-VE now, but I do want to hear more from promethelax. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On May 17 2013 03:31 HiroPro wrote: there's nothing about the politician that says they have to be mafia. it's entirely possible that they're town - i can think of at least two games that I've played in with a town politician. second, the deadline is at such a unusual time that even if the politician was mafia and obviousone was town, they simply might not have been around to move it from me to obvious. then there are some people in this game who seem to believe that it's better to lynch someone that's town than to have a no-lynch on d1, a mafia politician like that might even think it's a good idea to leave a town player alive. On May 17 2013 04:06 HiroPro wrote: we'll see, but i'm not really convinced. also, ace would very likely not be ok with "(2)": On May 17 2013 09:00 HiroPro wrote: to be honest, this game is kind of silly. i still haven't gone through viscera's posts but we literally cannot win (since we won't be able to get lynches) unless one of chaoser/bill/sinani is mafia. Unless you're talking about this, in which case I think you missed the part after the snip: On May 16 2013 10:11 HiroPro wrote: What reasons are there for a town player to outright follow another player just based on who they are? (snip) There is a good reason for mafia to do this kind of play though: avoiding responsibility. | ||
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On May 18 2013 00:20 kushm4sta wrote: Well you can't meta me because it's been forever since I've rolled scum. If I cloned myself I could totally tell if I were scum, so I am readable without meta. But I can see how people could view me as unreadable. The problem is that SOOO many town have died and no scum have died. I think we have to kill scum today, and killing me would be a huge crapshoot. wow this is like the worst argument ever this is like the drazerk argument | ||
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On May 18 2013 00:31 WaveofShadow wrote: ohai guise. Alright first things first: BH is your vote pn prplhz really productive? I agree that while his case on kush makes sense, it's stupid to try and deal with him normally because kush is just fucking kush. Are you somehow sure that prplhz is scum trying to push an easy mislynch on lynchbait or something just because he didn't follow your earlier directives on a kush case? I'd also be concerned because he is clearly trying to push a new wagon with 12h to go adding risk to another no-lynch I suppose.... VE: totes town. Alright maybe not totes but leaning towards such at the moment so I'm not voting him. Part 2 of his Hiro case is intriguing (Oats makes a point, why can't Hiro and I both be scum?). Prom I'm sorry for this because self-boner time, but whenever someone agrees with my conspiracy theories that people are out to frame me it worries me, because most of the time it's people like Prom telling me not to be a dumbass (even though I have been right multiple times). I'm just getting this out there because overall I'm going to trust VE that he's using his brain on this. Going to look into my promised reads on Hiro/Prom/BH now. Will vote once I'm finished. Once again, no one seems to suspect Oats enough to vote him aside from me, so ##Unvote i do T_T but i dont think we're gonna be able to get him lynched, so i support you unvoting him. | ||
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On May 18 2013 00:36 WaveofShadow wrote: SnB, who is scum? - one (or both) of oats and OO, most likely oats imo (for reasons look earlier in my filter) - I'm finding it harder and harder to believe that shirokami is town. Like, if he just wasn't posting at all, that's one thing; but he has a three page filter, without actually having said much of anything. I have a three page filter, three pages is plenty of attention to the thread to have made an impact. He hasn't. - Still think there's a chance of VE being scum, but he's sounding a lot more town than he was before. For my full thoughts on VE, there's a big post from me up above in the thread. - okay now we come to the hiropro question. give me a few minutes to figure out where i stand on that one and read his filter and stuff. | ||
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On May 18 2013 01:57 strongandbig wrote: - one (or both) of oats and OO, most likely oats imo (for reasons look earlier in my filter) - I'm finding it harder and harder to believe that shirokami is town. Like, if he just wasn't posting at all, that's one thing; but he has a three page filter, without actually having said much of anything. I have a three page filter, three pages is plenty of attention to the thread to have made an impact. He hasn't. - Still think there's a chance of VE being scum, but he's sounding a lot more town than he was before. For my full thoughts on VE, there's a big post from me up above in the thread. - okay now we come to the hiropro question. give me a few minutes to figure out where i stand on that one and read his filter and stuff. So on hiro First, I find VE's original case only moderately convincing. Summarizing his points with my comments: - Hiro asks a lot of questions that don't help find scum --- that's true, and there is a scum motivation for doing this, but chaoser was doing the same thing and flipped town; this could be a townie trying and failing to be a 'leader' type - Hiro is wrong about some theory (whether scum or town explain their actions) --- okay whatever not a scum tell unless you can connect it to scum motivated behavior. - Hiro's case on vivax was poorly reasoned --- okay also true but not necessarily a scum tell So from VE's original case we have some circumstantial evidence or scummy behavior, but nothing really strong. I actually like Sloosh's point here a lot better: On May 17 2013 14:49 slOosh wrote: I also agree with his lynch choice of HiroPro. He fits the Day 1 heuristic very tightly. The core of his day 1 play revolved around ObviousOne, but totally drops it with no explanation, and picks up the new thread sentiment of VE, and the rest of his posts seemed more concerned with mechanics explanations, but not with the intent of finding scum. these are much stronger reasons to suspect someone. - mechanics focus is a great way for scum to hide - following thread sentiment. we all know the point here. Then we've got VE's NK analysis about the Vivax death. not conclusive, not even very strong on its own, but the logic is valid. So this adds another piece of 'circumstantial evidence' to the puzzle. Then we've got WoS attacking hiro's vote post on VE. This is also a decent point - his vote post is just rehashing stuff other people said (specifically prome) AND he raises three bullet points of which none are strongly attached to scum motivation. Another piece of the puzzle. So what we have here is a preponderance of circumstantial evidence. I guess the best point, imo, is the one sloosh raises about the weird change in orientation. All of that taken together, I am willing to ##vote: hiropro | ||
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On May 17 2013 20:49 strongandbig wrote: Hummm. I'll read all this stuff About hero when I get into work in a few hours but what I want to know now is from VE what do you think about my speculation on the obvious one/oatsmaster split? I still think it's really likely that one of them is scum, I mean I guess I can kind of see the argument some people have been putting forward about why I know Lynch helps them but I still think I missed lunch on day one helps more there's plenty of people they could've been pushing after a myslynch. It's not like 00 has been the main focus of today anyway and so I still think it's pretty likely that either one or the other is scum, for the reasons I talked about above. still waiting on this. although i guess ve hasn't really been around since the first time i posted this. | ||
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On May 18 2013 05:53 Blazinghand wrote: i like how you think that anything but voting prplhz wos or OO is a legit thing today apparently a large number of people think voting for hiro is a legit thing today | ||
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On May 18 2013 07:15 Blazinghand wrote: ok so there's two big things about prplhz, but only one that I consider seriously a thing I'm lynching him for. First, and this is the important one, prplhz is pushing a lynch on kush that he MUST know is bad. he has stated repeatedly that he thinks kush is objectively scummy, but refuses to give a complete meta read on him. If presented with evidence that kush is ALWAYS objectively scummy, reasonably you'd back off, make a meta read, claim a red check, or state you want to lynch him for policy reasons. If you don't do any of these, you haven't actually demonstrated that kush is scum and not town. If you're not interested in doing any of these, then you are not interested in finding out if kush is scum or not. Basically, prplhz wants to lynch kush. Why? Well, prplhz claims it's because he thinks kush is scummy, but it's completely clear that nothing kush is doing this game is scummier than normal kush play. Prplhz says "well, he's more self-focused this game!" but doesn't give the evidence to show this as a legitimate meta read. He doesn't even say he wants to policy lynch kush. Why is he voting kush? Because he doesn't want to take part in the serious discourse/wagons (OO, WoS, and for some reason VE and HiroPro) and by voting kush he looks like he's doing something. It's completely clear what's going on here-- prplhz is opting out of the town discourse by voting kush. this case is terrible. your case against prp boils down to "prp looks bad and his cases are bad! He's saying we should lynch kush because he looks bad but he always looks bad!" BUT BH GUESS WHAT PRP ALWAYS LOOKS BAD AND HIS CASES ARE FREQUENTLY BAD OMG ITS LIKE YOU ARE MAKING A CASE ON YOURSELF! this whole thing is stupid. man up and vote for someone who is scum for actual *reasons* ! Check my filter, I go through a lot of them in a post I made. Or check VE, prome, and sloosh's posts about him. | ||
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On May 18 2013 07:04 grush57 wrote: ##Unvote grush what is the haps do you no longer think hiro is scum? why? who do you want to kill instead? etcetera? | ||
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On May 18 2013 07:51 VisceraEyes wrote: Um...hello? Anyone around? Srs shit going on...wagon in jeopardy, shenanigan deadline approaching... we gots like five hours and you're not even voting hiro lol, what are you saying about "wagon in jeopardy" and "shenanigans"? | ||
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or alternatively vote him time for star trek i'll check in before deadline | ||
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i'll think about it some more | ||
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On May 18 2013 08:22 Blazinghand wrote: NO YOU ARE MAKING A CAS EON YOURSELF look at yoru freaking kush case look at it and tell me it's legit at all It's a bad case that doesn't make him scum testing from phone with Siri | ||
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On May 18 2013 08:24 VisceraEyes wrote: My case on Hiro is legit, you're just sheeping whoever has the largest post Kush. GOD I wish that was scummy from you but it's FUCKING NOT BRO. DO YOU KNOW HOW SICK I AM OF THAT SHIT? http://achewood.com/index.php?date=08242006 | ||
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Anyway can someone explain to me why that new Shirov Commies town post like to Leaflock and in my book that's not very tony like everyone seems to think Easttown also I'm in for a minute to bed whatever CMRO | ||
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On May 20 2013 02:04 Promethelax wrote: oh look, bh was scum. You were chainsaw defending him. Suck a dick scum. Yes it does. It does a million percent. Scum team is bh, Kush, Sloosh, prp and SnB. [this is only true if busmaster is scum. He seems quite scummy though and he did vote bh and get defended by him. I need to look into Kush meta and vote analysis before I am totally sure of this though] I guess I see where you are coming from on that, but no. When I have limited time I much prefer to hear from people who can use my time wisely. We'll play together more <3. Who do you have as scum with Shiro/Prp and why is shiro scum? Everything he does is too openly scummy and if Rayn really can read him like Rayn suggested I'll take that read over my own since objectively scummy players are so often just objectively scummy despite alignment (take a gander at Kush or Stutters for decent examples.) You may have read my recent mafia scum game, in it I played very aggressive and in your face. The reason for it in that game, and my more aggressive posting in this game, is that I couldn't have the level of thread interaction I want (there because the other players were never in the thread, here because I'm not). There is a third newbie mafia game in my profile too, not sure why none of you are looking at me for real, like, its colour coded and shit. Its much more similar to the LX scum game than it its to nmm XIX. I'm torn between annoyed and honoured that you think my scum game is good enough to be what I'm doing here. Because he is town. Its a pretty simple equation really. OO, bh is a bit of a prickenstein as either alignment, its his schtick. But as scum he plays up the prick and plays down the being useful. Go look at his town play in Liquid City or the more recent LX. The kid isn't so bad as to just fight people because of his ego, he uses that to hide in when he rolls scum. Me voting bh in the ~three seconds I was in the thread would be hilariously bad if I was scum. I didn't give reasons or attempt to make myself look good from a possible d3 flip since it was a lynch between bh and Hiro d2. I'm not voting until i get back from work and get to finish analyzing everything I want to look at. I like this prp/kush lynch dichotomy at the moment though. I'm sure at least one of the two is scum. Another player I'd like to look at is Oats, someone remind me to filter him when I get home, he seems different to how I'm used to him playing town and I need to see if ti matches his scum play. Son of a bitch won't even sheep me. Prome do you have reasons for thinking I'm scum other than the lush master association? I realize that missing ve's massive vote switch push onto bh makes me look pretty terrible now that hiro flipped town and bh flipped scum. My reasons for thinking hiro was scum were genuine, however, as I would hope my posts made clear. All I can say is that I have a really good reason for being inactive this weekend: I was TF this semester for freshmen physics. Their final was on Friday, the last day of finals period, and grades are due on Monday, so that's basically all I have been doing this weekend plus getting pretty drunk last night at my roommate's birthday party). This has put me in a pretty bad spot it seems, so all I ask is that you guys give me another cycle to re-prove myself town, which I think I was doing decently well until I was forced into dramatically reduced activity. Honestly, I don't have time this morning to reason through new good scum reads. I still think something is fishy about the day1 votesteal, and how no one else has had their vote stolen and how the stolen vote didn't show up on day 1. But that will probably be dismissed as a scummy tunnel or something. Hopefully I will finish grading today before it gets too late, and be able to actually do some analysis as well as defending myself better against more specific accusations. But I can't promise anything other than that I will try to check in occasionally to see how the lybch us shaping up and if I need to vote. | ||
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On May 21 2013 02:50 Promethelax wrote: I wasn't informed of anything so I was not JK'd. But the bum rush at me as SK from scum today suggests to me that scum shot me last night and seeing me not die went all out today. I have no proof of this but basic analysis suggest that this was the case. Still thinking about the cases on and by promethelax. need to read some more. but here's a thing - protective roles *are* informed if they block a kp. that means if prome is telling the truth, there's some medic out there who knows it. Of course, he could still be scum or sk even if the medic protected him, but it would answer sloosh's "bulletproof SK" speculation on the missing night kill. they probably shouldn't claim since scum would shoot them and town would lose the PR. but still, just thought i'd mention it. | ||
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On May 17 2013 02:36 Promethelax wrote: Vivax was a night one shot in lxi. Does there have to be another explanation beyond: pretty good when he tries. interesting. | ||
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On May 21 2013 02:31 Promethelax wrote: hi guys, I'm back. This is how today goes: we lynch either Oats or Sloosh. Both of whom are scum. My only point on a town Oats was my early belief that scum had two night hits and his suggestion of a vig for the second hit. Since based on how the NKs worked out (as Sloosh correctly pointed out) there is probably a serial killer and scum only have one NK which means that Oats' townslip was actually a scumslip. Why is sloosh scum? Well its because he is really easy to read as scum. If you need help because you are bad though look at his play this day: he is SK hunting not scum hunting. An sk lynch is the same as a town lynch for scum, probably even better since the SK needs to be shooting Scum right now as evidenced by the BH shot last night. Having the SK alive assuming that it is indeed an SK (KISS suggests it is) is way more beneficial to town than it is to scum. We get to lynch and Scum need to nk the SK since he is the only non-scum kp in the game (besides the flipped vivax). SnB: no, there is no reason for me to think you are scum, but I need to call Kush scum to be able to read him and that was my chance to do so. I said I liked the prp/kush lynch dichotomy earlier but I like it a lot less now. Kush seems really townie in these last few pages his appeals to me to claim serial killer and ally myself with town are a thing he would not suggest as scum. In case you guys decide to lynch me I'm posting a full reads list with reasons so that you can maaaaybe make this a win for us. Oatsmaster has played anti-twon the whole game, his activity is pathetic and his interest is minimal. Plus scumslip about n0 nk SloOsh lurky scum play, focused attack on me trying to pass off sk-hunting as pro town while avoiding scum hunting. Chainsaw defense of bh. VE less sure than I am on the above but his OO stuff early wasn't right and my meta case from Chrono still holds. VE hasn't added anything to the game that he should as a townie. This is either VE's scumgame or the single worst town game I have ever seen from him. Shiro he was such an idiot early on that I had him as town, Rayn had a similar read. If we assume Rayn was the scum shot though that might have been to cover Shiro from someone who knew him. I wouldn't lynch him yet but I'm damn sure that I don't want him in lylo if it is at all avoidable. OO I do like his d2 play. BH's retard push on him for martyring also suggests that he is town. Of the three guys in this null column he is the one I think would have the skill to fool me as scum though. For the moment not really worth calling scum but he'll need to be looked at again as the game goes on. prp My heuristic with prp early game tells me he is town, his play hasn't done anything for me since that and he certainly could be scum. I find it somewhat unlikely though. Me[/me] WoS seriously the towniest mother fucker in the world. Kush his play today, he is actually interested in killing scum and winning game for town. Asking sk to claim is a very townie thing for kush to do. Grush I believe in STARSENSES For the purposes of the above list I treated this game as anti-scum/scum since the SK is on our side for now. I'm not to worried about him as town is so far behind right now (5-4-1) that he is shooting scum for a while and because of that scum HAVE to shoot him or push through a lynch on him. I say we lynch scum today and make scum waste their kp on sk so we can win this game. ##Vote: Oatsmaster you are all welcome to sheep me now. If scum seriously think I am the sk it probably means they shot me last night and I was protected from their nk, that would explain the retard push on me today. I'll probably get hit next night since they are so sure I'm sk so after I flip remember this post and come back and read it. I'd like you all to pull out the win for us kthx. for some reason this post feels like it has a lot of "i want to live" mixed in with the "scum reads". probably because finally someone is listening to all my stuff about oatsmaster from before, im so used to being ignored that now that someone influential is agreeing with me. but there are some real problems with the reads and also the way they are presented: - No mention of the entire Hiro wagon, which VE started, or the BH wagon, which VE also started, when he calls VE scum. Feels like recycling arguments. - oats stuff is also weird. he's had oats as a suspicion in his filter for a while, it's true, but the last mention of oats was "someone remind me to filter him when I get home, he seems different to how I'm used to him playing town and I need to see if ti matches his scum play. Son of a bitch won't even sheep me. " What happened to make that "playing anti-town all game"? Of course, I agree that oats has been playing anti town all game, but ... the way prome agreed with me is weird. - on me - prome's been throwing my name around as scum for a couple of days now, but it turns out that it was just because he was trying to goad kush? - more importantly, suddenly my "tunnel on oats", which even I recognize as a viability in my townplay/ in my attempts to demonstrate my alignment, becomes a reason he thinks i'm town? That doesn't sit right to me. It feels kind of like he just wanted to have something to say about everyone, and that he wanted to ditch as many of his previous scumreads as possible (me, OO, kush) to focus on establishing some alternative lynch to himself without too obviously flip-flopping on something important. So what I think happened - prome kind of slipped up with this post when the pressure got hot on him. The reads aren't consistent with his earlier positions; and while inconsistency can be townie, it's only townie when it happens for a good reason rather than just to have something to say about everyone when you're under pressure. If I was in promethelax's position as town, I would be 100% focused on "guys i'm town" and explaining how my play actually has been caring about lynches and my focusing on the nks was because they are an important tool in my scumhunting process and not because I was involved in them. What I'm [b]definitely not doing is this post. it's packed a sort-of-defense (but not really) against sloosh's case, a last will, and an argument for why we shouldn't be lynching the serial killer, all into one post. The last will part is suspicious because it's not like prome is going to die super fast; I'm not sure but I think now that kushmasta unvoted him he's at L-4? One other thing - the reason I posted that quote with "interesting" is because I don't really see any motivation for someone to try to reason out a counter-explanation for the vivax kill being a blue snipe. The one thing I do see is the SK having shot him, then seeing him flip vig and going "fuck I wanted the town vig alive because more kp is better for me and town is not doing so hot". Explaining that it wasn't a blue snipe as a way of (subconsciously probably) avoiding anticipated criticism. So the next question is, what do we do with it? First, it's not a sure bet that he's sk instead of scum. sloosh's case points fit better with him being sk but nothing really rules out him being scum. However, say that he is the third party serial killer. What does the town do about that? I'm actually not sure. On the one hand, if we kill him and he flips sk then we know that most likely one townie dies tonight. However, even if we manage to find and lynch scum, we probably won't reduce the number of anti-town KP (sloosh's nk analysis is pretty convincing to me). So here's the thing - it's obviously a much, much better thing for us to kill the third party serial killer than to lynch a townie, and if we try and find an alternative lynch and leave sloosh alive, then we run the risk of lynching a townie. Is it enough better for us to lynch scum than the sk that it merits taking that risk? Actually, is it better at all to lynch scum than the sk? If prome decides to shoot a townie and scum shoots another townie, that puts us at 4-3-1, where I don't think we can win. We can't lynch sk or we lose to scum at 3-3, and if we keep successfully lynching scum it goes 4-2-1 -> NKs -> 2-2-1 -> lynch -> 2-1-1 -> NKs -> 1-0-1 (prome wins) or 0-1-1 (scum wins). And that might be optimal play for an outed sk, he wins as long as he keeps finding scum. | ||
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On May 21 2013 03:18 Promethelax wrote: Help me out here SnB, what is interesting about that? Do you disagree with my analysis that scum probably shot me last night? You still think oats is scummiest? If not who and why? WoS/kush: you are both still here, I'd like to hear from you on my reads list and your opinions on them since I believe you are both town I'd rather like to have some conversations with you about my null list. I want to find the last scum and after that I'll go looking for sk. I think oats is scum, yes. My cases on him relating to the vote steal thing still holds. I think shirokami might be scum. People have given him town reads for reasons that pretty much escape me. I think prplhz might be scum. BH's case on him was just that bad. I think VE is not scum, that BH push would've been insane for scum to do, especially because if VE had kept his vote on hiropro, hiro would've been insta lynched when the safety period ran out (unless i'm misremembering). I don't know about kush, sloosh, and OO. I think OO is scum if Oats isn't, but I'm not sure about them being scum together. I think wos is not scum. Idk, it seems like he's been playing the kind of game you should as a townie who started off under a lot of pressure. I don't have a very good reason for this read however. right now i'm focused on you though. well on you and on my job since i'm at work but w/e on that | ||
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I also have thought more about the win/loss scenarios, and I really don't think we can afford to leave the SK alive. He could just decide to take his chances vs scum, and town cannot win in that situation. (see the bolded part at the end of that last post). As such, ##vote: promethelax | ||
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but my point is: if we lynch scum and the sk shoots town and scum shoots town, we cannot win. i dont really care whether or not that's good play for the sk - i'm not willing to put the chance of a town win in the hands of an anti-town party. although i think it might be good for you if you're the sk because you would be taking the possibility of a town win off the table. if you're the SK and you are essentially caught, you basically have to shoot town or else after we lynch scum and you shoot scum, town will just lynch you. You have to shoot town to force them into lynching scum instead of you. you're right, 5-4 tomorrow is pretty bad. however, we still have a fighting chance. it's infinitely better than 4-3-1. | ||
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What's goin down in lynchingtown | ||
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i agree re shoriyuken prplhz though. not sure about sloosh. i think finding the serial killer was the only way for town to win, so i dont agree that him hunting the sk was a sign of him being scum. that said not sure. maybe grush? need to read his filter in depth. (lol, reading grush... i wish) | ||
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On May 22 2013 07:13 grush57 wrote: so we 100% lynch sloosh tomorrow. why him not shoriuken or prplhz | ||
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we've let shoriuken and prplhz (and you) not even do that, it seems like scum would either try to nuke the fuck out of the thread like bh or just avoid engaging and get away. actually lets talk about you, you're jumping around targets like a motherfucker, without any reasons or accountability. | ||
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I'm mostly sure you're telling the truth. But those couple of posts where you are "unsure" about sloosh's claim are giving me pause and I'd like to know if your story holds up. Also - ##vote: sloosh Regardless of whether OO is telling the truth (and I think odds are good that he is), sloosh's claim is fake as fuck. Who checks darthpunk, the claimed miller, n1? (The fact that OO didn't notice this when he called out sloosh is part of what's nagging at me.) | ||
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On May 23 2013 04:38 kushm4sta wrote: fine we will lynch you last. I don't really care about order that much. The problem is it really doesn't matter what the order is because town never gets to the point where we've earned ourselves a mislynch. 4 to 3 3 to 2 2 to 1 The only thing you have said in the longest time is "I'm not scum". Guess what. You are scum. Obviously, I'm biased because I don't want to get mislynched and lose. But how about this more objective argument - you should lynch in order of how certain you are that you're scum, because that gives you more time to read the people you're unsure about. | ||
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I'm drunk again but not as much as last time Don't shoot me until I get over being hug over tomorrow thiggh | ||
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On May 24 2013 11:40 ObviousOne wrote: If he doesn't die he's mafia. By deviation from his plan I am potentially opening the win for mafia (if he is right). Why haven't mafia conceded now that 3P is gone and he is potentially right, with so many on board for his list? Why drag out the game by going AFK? Maybe theyr hoping they can get you to make this exact argument Plus scum teams just don't concede when there is more than one of them left on tk | ||
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With those three aside, we've got the following people:
I know this probably won't be satisfying for the people who think I'm scum but it's where I'm at right now. At least it doesn't feel like there's any hurry but I'll try and get up an analysis post on kush or grush this afternoon. | ||
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On May 25 2013 04:14 prplhz wrote: you better be right about this kush jerk | ||
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doubt there's a janitor though, that would be weird | ||
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but like, the only kinds of games that have janitors are like caller games and busdriver type games, and this seemed more rational until now | ||
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i think if there was a janitor it probably didnt have anything to do with those commands | ||
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also "GTL" has "laundry" in it maybe he's like "cleaning out" the flip? | ||
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#thug hugs (that's a hashtag not a ## power activation indicator) | ||
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On May 25 2013 08:49 Dandel Ion wrote: I thought this wasn't over until grush dropped dead since mafia wincon said "control at least half the votes in town" So technically..... But since town had no medic or bulletproof players left, there was no way to prevent it even with perfect lynches, I explained in the scum qt. | ||
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On May 25 2013 08:49 kitaman27 wrote: Grats to the scum team. Thanks for hosting Ace, Dandel Ion and Kurumi! Interesting roles. I like the prplhz Captain role especially. Very true, it was an interesting and cool role. And agreed, thanks to ace et al for hosting, it was a really fun game. | ||
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(Lolno) I agree that we almost snatched defeat out if the jaws of victory. There was no need for ve to bus bh, plus that night I got drunk at a party and forgot to medic bh, which was my plan. Still this was a really fun game, I loved being on an active scum team for once. Sorry my activity fell off after I thought I might have thrown the game with that night action lapse. | ||
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💩 | ||
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On May 26 2013 01:10 Dandel Ion wrote: Game would have been better as well as closer if the modkills didn't happen. given that those people signed up, the modkills were essential for town to have a fighting chance - hiro was right, they just wouldn't have had enough votes to ever lynch a scum. obviously though you're right that the game would've been better if those people had decided to actually play | ||
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On May 27 2013 05:20 VisceraEyes wrote: I want to explain my BH push when I get to a computer. Anyone familiar with my play should be able to see I never had any intension of getting him lynched. It was strictly a PR move and as Ace will tell you, a fairly transparent one. yeah but i think ace would agree that it wasn't a very good idea in that circumstance | ||
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