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calgar
United States1277 Posts
On May 09 2013 10:20 VayneAuthority wrote: Agreed. Why is this half-assed analysis 30 minutes before the lynch, when you've done nothing in the last 48 hours, supposed to change our minds in any way? why are you voting for random meaningless things when the lynch is between you and Targe? you aren't playing to win, kinda just fucking around. | ||
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
@hydra You jumped in as the replacement with some good reads and analysis. Since then you've been much less active. You've been suspicious of spicy and targe previously - what are your current reads? @spicy I'd like to hear your thoughts as well as hydra's before N2 ends because I've liked your play more than most of the other players so far. You've pointed at casey and targe as scummy - do you still feel the same? @sugar, vayne, targe I'm not really sure who to shake my stick at now between the three of you. Shiro seemed very certain that vayne was scum, although we should probably take that with a grain of salt due to the rest of his play. Was he going somewhere or is this just a red herring? It doesn't seem like sugarfluff has done much of any scum-hunting. targe has been summarized by several players so far. I'm leaning towards lynching one of these guys right now. @nobody, jrkirby Why did you sign up if you weren't going to play? | ||
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
Alright, good job on the targe hunch spicy. I'm not entirely sure you're dead next but there's probably a good chance. Time to turn things around while we still can. @vayne I've reread vayne's filter and changed my mind. I don't think he's played a very good game and he's said a lot of things that can be individually considered scummy, like his vague active lurking/'stalling for time' posts to start the game: On May 04 2013 12:38 VayneAuthority wrote: and this will be rough considering it is a no clue game. First day of lynching is just purely a guess at this point, ill probably get the ball rolling later once I see some more posts On May 04 2013 14:09 VayneAuthority wrote: Not enough information yet to know whether I want to lynch lurkers or not. I need at least a post from everyone first, as well as some votes to come in. then we'll see Then there was his insistence on withholding information (you realize when you don't share reads thats 3 mafia you're denying and 8 other towns... 8 seems more important 3...) but that's been mentioned a lot already. There is also the continued mention of a no-lynch and that has been discussed already as well. The no-lynch seems to come from his past experiences and he feels that it would genuinely help town. So even though there are all these individuals things I don't like about his play, I fail to see an overall scummy motivation in his actions as a whole. He made the targe case a while ago and was pushing his read there. I don't really see why scum would pressure targe back then so I can't really imagine that he would be making that case so early if he weren't town. This kind of clears him in my eyes for now. casey also seems to have tried to build a case on you so this can further confirm you I think. my scum team Regarding my scum team - I previously had sugarfluff, shirokami, and one other (likely casey or targe I said). I really thought shiro was going to flip red because he was so scummy, which made me feel like a targe + casey team was unlikely because shiro was higher on the priority list and the team was full. Now than he flipped as terribletown I think casey and targe make a lot more sense. I'll revise my scumteam now to targe, sugarfluff, and casey. casey and targe interaction I've thought casey has had bad posting but seemed to be making a genuine effort at some point. I was waiting for him to improve and he just hasn't and the clocks struck midnight for me. The newbiness and language make it tougher to interpret his true motives and I've probably given him the benefit of the doubt too long as a result. I do think it's striking that they fail to give opinions on each other. What bothers me is similar to what spicy has brought - promising to give reads and then just never delivering. Its excuse after excuse similar to shirokami, just no useful contributions. He seems to be pointing the finger at sugarfluff now - maybe he's doing this so sugar looks better when casey flips red? sugarfluff I've been on him a lot of the game and he hasn't really posted anything substantive in a long time. It feels like he's doing the bare minimum to get by to the next day without attracting attention. See my filter for previous reasoning as well. Another thing I didn't like is how he casually voted for shiro after things were piling up. He essentially ignored shiro in the early game and has little interaction with targe as well (only 1 brief mention) before voting shiro over targe. I get the feeling he may have piled on to save targe and therefore doesn't have any town reasoning to support his actions. roleblocker? Also, if we can trust shiro saying he was roleblocked then this would suggest there is a roleblocker amongst the remaining players? I'm not really sure if we can use this information to our benefit since it may not be true. In conclusion, I'd like to lynch casey and sugarfluff. I suppose the order doesn't matter much if we're right but I'll put my vote on casey for now. Also, I am VT. | ||
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
On May 10 2013 11:23 VayneAuthority wrote: Is there any reason you're leaning towards sugarfluff over casey right now?Im leaning towards lynching sugarfluff due to him and espi.casey being the common denominator in both bad lynches and something feels off about him going through his filler. | ||
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
On May 11 2013 23:46 VayneAuthority wrote: I don't know what to say other than maybe they've given up and/or don't care anymore?Before I can even talk about analysis we need Espi.casey and Sugarfluff to roleclaim. the level of inactivity in this game was pretty absurd, its like people thought the game is over after the first day lol. I dont understand what happened to half the players | ||
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
@vayne On May 12 2013 12:25 VayneAuthority wrote: That's an interesting suggestion vayne, but there's actually 5 players missing off the list. I'm not really sure why he included the people to analyze that he did while leaving out me, casey, hydra, jarjar (then dead), and jampi (then alive but set to be lynched). I don't think it's very good evidence, though, or strongly indicative of who his scum buddies are. when you get back let me know what you think of this post Maybe he didnt realize what this would look like at this point in the game? look at the two people missing off this list... As scum he knows his posts are going to be analyzed if/when he dies so what he writes he knows will be examined and cross-examined. This ends up in a WIFOM situation where you can run in endless circles. Maybe he didn't feel comfortable giving analysis on any other scum member, but maybe he decided to give analysis on one but not both. Would scum feel more comfortable writing a post that ignores their buddies knowing it might be read when they die, or mentioning them all and potentially attracting attention to them, or mentioning only 1 other? Who's to say really? I don't really know, but I certainly don't think this is a reason to not lynch sugarfluff. I think his read on sugar is interesting as well - noncommital, vaguely critical, lacking mention/accusation of being scummy, and then a general question to 'promote' discussion. It's the kind of thing scum can point back to and say "look, I was on his case the whole time" if their buddy flips red. He could use that to try and clear himself of scummyness later on. the last scum In regards to sugarfluff, specifically, I find his recent post scummy. I've included some analysis with previous quotes from his filter spliced in where relevant. On May 12 2013 08:24 Sugarfluff wrote: Certainly plausible but a good excuse to give for your mega-lurking. I find that interesting considering what you said earlier:So yea, I lost interested in the game after the modkills and everything. I apologize, should not have just gone inactive like that. On May 07 2013 01:25 Sugarfluff wrote: Despite what you say about looking forward here, you go on to be a key reason activity decreases. I think one reason you might have felt the need to lurk is that your "big case" you tried to push on me and jrkirby didn't go anywhere. Since no one bought into it, if you kept pushing them it would be obvious you were fabricating a case, and if you backed up and changed reads then you would look scummy as well for being unsure/noncommittal/trying to spread suspicion everywhere.AllHailHydra seems like a good poster and I can't wait to study his reasoning's, I have to go now but looking forward to the game picking up. On the subject of role-claiming, I'm vanilla town. Out of the remaining players not many could be town. No one seems to be disputing Spicy being the one that shot Targe, so that pretty much makes him town. Which means out of Casey, Calgar and Vayne only one can be town. It seems useful to me on their own, actually. I think it's useful because to me, the difference is that you poorly justified your decision to lynch shirokami and have hidden your reads throughout the game. In your initial batch of posts which you have admitted wasn't very good, you put up a vague accusation on vayne.So the lynches. Calgar and Casey (and me) voted for Shirokami and got him lynched, while Vayne was set on Targe (as he had been from the beginning). Calgar voted for me day 1, Vayne voted for Targe. And me and Casey voted for JarJar. Not very useful on their own actually, Vayne was the only one on the correct guy. I still stand by the votes I cast, I thought Jarjar was suspicious and Shirokami was a worthwhile lynch anyhow. I do believe Vayne is town at this point, which means that Calgar and Casey are scum. It comes down to getting a town read on Vayne more than anything really. I'll be voting Casey as such. No point in putting a vote on Calgar that won't get through, better to get the few remaining town votes together on a lynch. You then make one of your only posts with legitimate content (spoilered for reference), the one about me and jrkirby having a plan where he would lurk at the beggining, I would post but ignore him, and somehow because I commented on other lurkers but not him we're a scumteam? + Show Spoiler + On May 06 2013 20:26 Sugarfluff wrote: Allright, so I went through the thread again and I'm gonna give my impressions of people I think are scum and others. So far my scumradar shows kirby and calgar as scumbuddies. Kirby does very little in the beginning, suspiciously so if you ask me. This doesn't say much, however, since most posts at the very beginning are short and without a lot of content. But he doesn't try and start any discussions and gives short answers. He does make a good post a bit later on were he points his suspicions on nobodywonder, eSpi.Casey, and shirokami. Now I found this bit interesting, because I do believe that mafia could play like that, distancing themselves that is, but also if kirby does believe that wouldn't he play mafia that way? As it happens he and Calgar pretty much avoided each other completely in the beginning, not so weird for kirby since he barely did anything but it is weird for Calgar. Calgar gave his opinion on plenty of people, including lurkers, yet passed over kirby. Instead he focused on me. Which is fine, I don't think my first day posting was very good. But I also think his reaction was a little strong. So these two ignoring each other I found strange. They did have a conversation towards the end that gives me even more doubt. They both want JarJar off and both think Targe seems more suspicious, but both in fact make no actual attempt to save him, since as mafia they'd know he was town(or SK). The situation was pretty grim for JarJar so in theory if they are scumbuddies one could have voted for JarJar and he would certainly still have gotten lynched, but that is assuming they were worried enough about such suspicions. On the subject of Targe, my read on this guy isn't very good. He certainly doesn't seem that towny right now, short posts, not a lot of original content. I'd really like to hear Vaynes read on him now, if he has now deemed it acceptable for whatever reason. Vayne is definitely acting suspiciously, but he is quite active and not afraid answering questions (except for the "I'm not gonna tell yet" incident.) At this point I'd say he's more SK than town, and more town than mafia. But nothing conclusive. JampiDampi is town, according to me. Probably the person who has done most to get discussions going, and asking for more research material (vaynes previous games). I feel fairly confident in my read of Jampi being town. Nobodywonder doesn't seem quite town to me, but I feel kirby and Calgar are much stronger suspects. And nobody does ask some questions and try for some discussion. If it would turn out that kirby/calgar can't be mafia nobody would probably be next on my list. As it stands kirbys suspicion (as I believe he is mafia) would make me think nobody is town for now. Casey and shirokami haven't done that much, about the same as me until now I feel, although their posts have been slightly better. I'd like to see more from both of them soon. As it is I really don't know who kirby an calgar's third man would be, anyone got any ideas? Think I'm totally off? Let's make the most of the wrong lynch right now so we are well prepared for day 2. I've already expressed my concern about the faulty logic and jumping to conclusions based off of a purely by chance lack of interaction early in the thread that you use with this case. Another thing is the fact that he barely ever mentions people he votes for specifically shirokami and casey. His first mention is quite brief: On May 06 2013 20:26 Sugarfluff wrote: Casey and shirokami haven't done that much, about the same as me until now I feel, although their posts have been slightly better. I'd like to see more from both of them soon. He doesn't give another opinion on either until directly prompted when I bring them up to him as a counter-argument to point out he's been ignoring them. On May 08 2013 19:56 Sugarfluff wrote: Casey hasn't been that bad, although I don't have townread on him either. Shiros filter is indeed a very sad thing, and his continued delays are getting more and more suspicious. But people were already pointing out his lurking and voicing suspicions about it. I wanted to hear kirby speak up, and I wanted to see how you'd react. Quite frankly I thought you reacted poorly, but reading through my posts I realized that I never outright asked you, what do you think of kirby? You still have not given an opinion on him. I found his two posts before lynching shirokami to be disturbing. On May 09 2013 08:17 Sugarfluff wrote: All right, fair enough. As of this moment we have a lot of people failing to contribute; shirokami keeps delaying, kirby has been missing a long time, and nobody has been gone pretty much just as long. Obviously some of these lurkers are town, which makes lynching a lurker not that pretty of a prospect, unless other reasons are brought up for voting them. Hope any or all of you guys do post before the day ends. and On May 09 2013 09:55 Sugarfluff wrote: I'll put my vote on shirokami, I am more confident in his scummy-ness than Targes and at this rate kirby is bound to be modkilled when he doesn't vote. It was definitely troubling that shiro kept delaying. You admit that some of them are obviously town and throw in a "hope you guys post more!" right before you disappear for DAYS! You admit that they might be town but then you're willing to vote him because you're more confident of his scummyness, even though you barely mention him in the thread and don't analyze him at all? What?! I see no towny play here, no initiative, no desire to scumhunt or push your reads. You pop in, throw your vote on the guy who has a lot of votes, and leave. The other, crazier, theory would be Vayne sitting as the mafia mastermind, plotting around our silly first game antics. I do think he is the best player here. Even so it'd be pretty impressive if he, you know, picked a fellow mafia day 1 (Targe) voted for him but gave no reason. It'd be a risk but we were stumbling about at the time and Vayne is an active fellow, he could probably have rectified the situation if it came to that. He keeps pushing the issue while not overriding any other more popular lynches, until eventually Targe is shot and we have a renewed trust for Vayne. The two modkills would be like an incredibly lucky break for him though, not one that could have been calculated and without them Targe would have been a huge sacrifice. Although as a mafia, who now has everyone's trust he could turn to the remaining town without much suspicion. He'd have to build a pretty convincing argument for Spicy so I'm the better target. I wonder... What are you trying to accomplish with this paragraph? It seems that literally you are trying to suggest vayne may be the last scum, even though you just accused me (with no reasoning, no less). Everyone considers vayne to be solidly town so you have to qualify your suspicion with weakening phrases like "crazy", "i wonder..". I don't think you're going to be able to mislynch him here by making up this farfetched theory about how he is really a mastermind puppeteer running circles around everyone with flawless play.No matter what happens now I am definitely interested in seeing who turns scum. @spicy Since you're likely dead soon make sure to leave us all of your final reads. That took a very long time to write so I'll be back tonight to see your thoughts. | ||
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
On May 13 2013 04:18 VayneAuthority wrote: You seem to be using emotion (narcissism, disdain, perception of you as a shitty player) more than reason right now; I'd like to caution on that. Mafia wins by playing off emotion (like flattery) whereas town wins by using logic.Other things that strike me as odd going through calgar's filter is defending casey/targe but then not too long later declaring them as part of the scumteam. seems real weird to me. Another more narcissistic fact is that he constantly displays his disdain for my play and how bad it is, and this was how I figured out that targe was mafia. Constantly saying how great jampi was and then he dies night 1. I really can't think of any reason that I have survived this long when I have been this active other than the mafia thinking I am a shit player. There's a lot of info I think you are passing up on in calgar's filter spicy so I wonder what you think about this stuff I definitely wasn't right from the very get-go on my reads but I don't think I defended casey/targe like you say. Are we looking at the same filter in regards to jampi? I called him great constantly you say, but to me it looks like the only time I mention him directly is here: On May 07 2013 03:05 calgar wrote: How does this equate to me calling him great? @jampi - I see you asking a lot of questions of other people but I'm not as clear on your reads. You've said there are a lot of scummy people running around so who's bugging you the most? As for my "disdain for your play", I feel that you're exaggerating here. Despite reading you town, I think you've done scummy things during the game. I've stated specific reasons as to why I feel that way. That's all, nothing more and nothing less. Will you explain how my criticism of your play lead you to figure out targe was mafia like you say - I'm completely lost on that point. As for surviving this long - mafia have only killed 2 players and there should have been another two town alive. Activity isn't always a reason to kill someone, there's lots of others like who they are pressuring, desire to continue/end certain lines of thinking, trying to orchestrate future mislynches, etc. I don't think it's a solid deduction to assume the reason you're alive is because they think you're a shit player. | ||
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
I think sugarfluff is the remaining scum and as such I'll be voting for him. | ||
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
gg thanks to marvellosity for answering all my questions! | ||
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