EPTRED Team's Prize - Page 115
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On April 01 2013 03:11 Keirathi wrote: Somehow I missed this post. But thinking back, this is really the biggest reason that my Acro->sinani analysis falls apart. First off, when Acro made the case on sinani, it was pretty obvious that Smurf was still going to be lynched first. And Acro had no idea that the day would be a double lynch, because that was Palmar's night action (presumably). Now, lets think about the vote rigger role itself. Presumably Acro asked Kurumi if using his power would affect both of the lynches. Which means 100% that yesterday was the day to use it (why lynch one townie for free, when you can lynch two?). So, if Acro can affect both lynches, then pushing 2 of his teammates really isn't very risky. The vote rigging is anonymous, and even if the vote rigging "frames" his two teammates and they get lynched successively at a later point, Acro still looks good coming out of it because he was pushing them. *  isclaimer: The other side of that is Acro could "frame" 2 townies with the vote rigging too. Or 1 townie and 1 scum. This is all in a hypothetical where Acro himself didn't get lynched, ofc, but whoever the two town-chosen lynches were, they both come out of the rigged lynches looking much worse.TL;DR - my analysis about sinani not being scum with Acro is irrelevant. I still don't think there is a ton that points to him actually being scum (the biggest being how hard Acro chainsaw defended him day 1), but I think it is a decent possibility again. I see one problem here. Acro claimed his power when the game started in our mason QT. I think he accidently put it there and was thinking he is posting in scum QT (rofl if i am right here, that would be hilarious ^_^). The claim was in our QT for 3 minutes. Me + Grack saw it. Now if Acro ever uses his power and townies get lynched, it incriminates him a lot. Acro didn't mention the vote rigging in any way before he was himself under pressure -> when we started voting him. I do not think Smurf/sinani are both scum and he was gonna use his power in the first place -> scum would have pretty much outed three of them in one phase. Makes sense? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On April 01 2013 03:17 Hapahauli wrote: oh so just shoot people and go wild on the non-confirmed dudes. They haven't claimed yet, so w/e. Yeah if people do not post before the deadline i'm going to take the safer route and just check someone. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 01 2013 03:21 raynpelikoneet wrote: I see one problem here. Acro claimed his power when the game started in our mason QT. I think he accidently put it there and was thinking he is posting in scum QT (rofl if i am right here, that would be hilarious ^_^). The claim was in our QT for 3 minutes. Me + Grack saw it. Now if Acro ever uses his power and townies get lynched, it incriminates him a lot. Acro didn't mention the vote rigging in any way before he was himself under pressure -> when we started voting him. I do not think Smurf/sinani are both scum and he was gonna use his power in the first place -> scum would have pretty much outed three of them in one phase. Makes sense? Yea, that makes sense. Counter-point, though: If Acro could control who was lynched with his vote-rigging, and he lynched you with it instead of say, Dandel, who would have been alive to tell us that he was the vote rigger? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 01 2013 03:22 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yeah if people do not post before the deadline i'm going to take the safer route and just check someone. No need to check. Just shoot. If they are a town mason, they have ABSOLUTELY NO REASON not to claim right now. The only people who wouldn't be claiming are scum. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On April 01 2013 03:22 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yeah if people do not post before the deadline i'm going to take the safer route and just check someone. Shoot Oats. He claimed VT. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
That actually is my plan. :D | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
I'm really convinced Yamato and prp are scum. We should lynch them next. They've both played ridiculously obvious anti-town games and they're scum. Not much to say. I'm feeling a bit better about Rayn now that he's decided to talk more about his role. His shots make me want to yell at him though, but I'm not sure if I want to lynch him for it yet. Sinani is suspicious by proxy of Acro flipping. I kind of see that Kei and Oats' arguments make sense, a lot more sense than mine do. That leaves us with the confirmed towns, Oats, and Hapa. If Hapa survives tonight, he should be looked at a bit more tomorrow because I don't see scum not killing him tonight. He's been the backbone of the town so far and his position in the mason circle helped us out greatly. He should be one of the ones dying tonight. Oats. I don't know what to say about Oats. He's been a bit paranoid about me and Kei being scum. He's done nothing make me lean town heavily on him, yet nothing to make me lean scum on him at all. He's a weak town read for me still, just due to him being busy and lack of activity (because he's on vacation). | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
I'm feeling a bit better about Rayn now that he's decided to talk more about his role. His shots make me want to yell at him though, but I'm not sure if I want to lynch him for it yet. You srsly think there is a possibility that i am scum and shot my teammate? | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On April 01 2013 03:44 raynpelikoneet wrote: You srsly think there is a possibility that i am scum and shot my teammate? No. You shot Grack for almost no reason and you could've shot Acro before he killed off two other townies. Desperate times call for desperate measure for scum. Especially since they will be cut in half at the end of the day. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On April 01 2013 03:44 raynpelikoneet wrote: You srsly think there is a possibility that i am scum and shot my teammate? To be fair, I think there is a *possibility* that you did. However, I don't find it *likely* that you did. But Acro was dead either way. If you are scum, you might as well shoot him and get town cred to ride to the easy win. The question really comes down to "Does scum rayn have the balls to pull it off?" | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
In fact Acro should have been instantly outed as mafia the moment you saw him do that, rayn. Oh well, water under the bridge. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
Yes marv, i probably should have seen the obvious. I thought he could do something like change someone's vote. And me not shooting him before the deadline was definitely a mistake. I had to think it out very quickly as i was out with my friends and had a limited access to computer and i was drunk anyways. Bad call. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On April 01 2013 03:57 Keirathi wrote: To be fair, I think there is a *possibility* that you did. However, I don't find it *likely* that you did. But Acro was dead either way. If you are scum, you might as well shoot him and get town cred to ride to the easy win. The question really comes down to "Does scum rayn have the balls to pull it off?" I can tell you that scum!rayn would have the balls to do stuff like that. Don't you think it would be a bit OP for mafia to have an incredibly powerful vote-rigger (given that Palmar had the double lynch power) and a multi-shot anonymous vigi? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On April 01 2013 05:33 raynpelikoneet wrote: I can tell you that scum!rayn would have the balls to do stuff like that. Don't you think it would be a bit OP for mafia to have an incredibly powerful vote-rigger (given that Palmar had the double lynch power) and a multi-shot anonymous vigi? lol yes, I think you would definitely have the balls for it too. And yes, the fact you shot Grack makes it likely you're town, given we had 2 KP from mafia night 1. Usually in a game this size, mafia might be given one KP but then additional roles like a scumvig. It seems unlikely that mafia would get 2 KP *and* a multi-shot vigi. In addition your explanation was more than I was hoping for, so that's good. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Rayn is likely town due to claim and setup speculation (OP seemingly indicates that there was only 1 mafia in our Mason Circle) Last two mafia are between prplhz, Sinani, and Oats, and I'm honestly not certain who they are. None have really impressed me on behavior. Oats and Sinani for reasons I"ve mentioned. Prplhz because I can't figure out the last time in his filter he actually posted a read. He's basically talked about nothing but his claim for a while now. All 3 need to role-claim tomorrow, and we'll work from there. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
My best guess right now is sinani + Oats for mafia, although I'm not massively sure about it. I also agree with Hapa's idea of roleclaiming, I was going to suggest it myself. | ||
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Kurumi
Poland6130 Posts
Day 3 *tumbleweed* | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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