|
On March 05 2013 08:13 Adam4167 wrote:
Acro, i'm not arguing that Hapa is being forceful, in fact his non-forcefulness is one of my reasons for thinking hes town.
If you're going to bus there, you'd commit to it and completely railroad Keirathi.
Not if you think there's a way out. It was early, the duel was unexpected and while I am unfamiliar with Keir's scumplay other than that one game a billion years ago that I read, in that game he was pretty damned crafty.
Nowhere in that whole process do I get the feeling that Hapa wanted to lynch Keir. Now he wasn't the only one in the group of people who lynched Keir without actually wanting to...
Now the earlier point was that it was such an expert bus, because he was early on the vote and pushing Keir forcefully. Now I showed (multiple times) that Hapa was far from forceful despite being an early voter. Now the lack of his forcefulness makes him townie. Since when does "lack of will for lynching a scumbuddy" speak of a town mentality?
Combine that with his pisspoor D1 play, the metas that don't add up and all the reasons for Yamato being town and Hapa is a far better lynch than Yamato.
|
On March 05 2013 08:18 Sylencia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2013 00:29 cDgCorazon wrote:On March 05 2013 00:26 Sylencia wrote:On March 04 2013 23:52 cDgCorazon wrote:Alright, well I've come to my decision. It was a tough one, so I decided to take a look at all of the veteran TLers who have flipped VT this game and see their thoughts: On March 03 2013 12:48 thrawn2112 wrote:
d3: lynch yamato.
if yamato flips scum then do whatever the hell you want. if yamato turns out to be town I think hapa and acro should be flipped next. On February 26 2013 07:59 marvellosity wrote:
Ok, so I'm hoping deadline is about to happen. Here's what I think of people so far.
Probably town:
yamato - aggression, thread presence, decent reads, etc
People I'm a bit suspicious of:
Hapahauli - he's just done nothing to make me think he's town, and Hapa is very capable of coming across town. Like iamp mentions, defends himself too much instead of doing proactive things. *could* just be a bad start.
On February 28 2013 12:38 iamperfection wrote:On February 28 2013 12:29 Adam4167 wrote:
No, that is called being unavailable.
How the hell is not being here 24/7 mafia motivated? its calling having a life outside this forum. hapa is in the same time zone as me. Hapa knows that playing mafia is a commitment hapa knows proving your towniness is important hapa knows that activity and discussion are how you catch mafia He has shown no interest in those things top it off with his shit start that was all defense and no scum hunting and the simple explanation is that hapa is mafia. And the survey says... ##Vote: HapaAlso I cannot see any possible ways that Hapa's actions could be town-oriented. I could see Yamato's play being town a lot easier (still hard though) than Hapa's play. I don't have much to add to today's duel - the only point I can really add is that while you're using other opinions to decide your vote, can you really value marv's judgment as equal as others? He says it in his post himself - 'could be a bad start', seeing as how he was in the game for 24 hours where some people hadn't talked yet. Personally, I find Hapa's defense posts in day 3, his read on yamato during day 2 and yamato's duel-while-everyone-is-afk to really add up to a compelling argument for me to vote yam. On the other hand, considering day 1 and day 2 have resulted in a mafia lynching I don't see why yamato is actually just openly claiming that a lynch on him is ok to get more info. After reading the case on Hapa, I also find it to be rather weak - primarily the day 2 case on Hapa. The only compelling thing for me is the disappearance of Hapa during the later stages of that duel but I think the quotes provided don't make for a strong scum case against him. I'm going to be sleeping on this, but I don't honestly expect to be coming up with many miracle answers to this problem and in advance I'm going to apologize (primarily to Cora here) for being such a useless townie. On a side note, if we want to maximize our chances of winning, one of the next duels should result in a double lynch. (Town chooses kill today, Night Kill, Town, Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Town) gives us 6 kills to choose from and 3 controlled by scum. This is different to Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Town where we get 5 kills and they still get 3. tl;dr sometime during this duel or the next 2 duels, we have an extra spare lynch. This is assuming no vig/protection/thingswhichstop1NK. It's never too late to redeem yourself Syl. Who do you think is the last (hypothetical) scum assuming that Yamato and Hapa aren't bussing each other? Zare has a high chance at the moment no matter who gets chosen, but after thinking through it during the night it's quite possible that Yamato and Hapa are both town, which means there could still be another scum. If that's the case, the other thing I'm a bit suspicious about are how clear pro-town players who are providing a lot of insight in comparison to others didn't get killed instead of the ones who are dead. While thrawn was also an active player, his reads were definitely a lot more off in comparison to Acro/Adam.
Agreed on the NK analysis. It doesn't help the current decision process though. Who do you want to lynch out of Yamato and Hapa?
|
|
|
On March 05 2013 08:31 Adam4167 wrote:
I never made the point that it was an expert bus because it was forceful?
It wasn't. Which makes it unlikely to be a bus. Scum want to ride a bus for all its worth to get something out of losing a team mate.
You can throw your vote back on Hapa, i reread the relevant part of the game, I still think Hapa will flip town.
Do you think Yamato will flip scum?
|
Adam: I implore you to reread Marv bussing you in Hero Mini. He opens the door on lynching Tunkeg instead of you about a million times.
And that was probably the best bus I have seen on TL ever (you could claim LI, but that was such a shitstorm that nobody knows how that turned out). As a general rule: scum don't want to bus their teammates on D1.
|
Forgot a sentence:
Even if scum feel forced to bus their teammates, they don't want to. Their heart is only in it once they see it's inevitable.
Only exception to this rule: the scum is Mattchew.
|
Adam. What do you feel the chances of scum Oats are?
I was trying to consolidate your town read on Hapa with my town read on Yamato... and that brought me to Snarfs, Oats and Alderan.
Out of these, Oats has played the most erratic, but I keep coming back to 2 things:
1. The senseless provocation of Marv
2. Dieno's only spontaneous scumread was on Oats.
|
Nop. Still not seeing any of them as scum and that still leaves Hapa.
@Syl, Alderan: feel free to have an opinion at any time!
|
That's 5, yes. That's supposed to mean quiet time.
In other news:
On March 01 2013 07:19 Alderan wrote:
Just found out that some friends as well as my girlfriend will be coming to visit this weekend. Giving everyone a little heads up that my activity will probably be down from Friday night to Monday morning, but hell I'll probably still be more active than half the thread.
Liar liar pants on fire.
No clue whether this is indicative of alignment, but his last post is from before Yamato even called the duel. I am a bit irritated that he never even had to give an opinion and justify it.
|
KABOOM MOTHAFUCKA!!!!
Hell yeah!
High five, Yamato!
|
Can I ##duel Zarepath yet?
Please?
|
There's just one thing bugging me about Zapa. He defended Hapa really hard there, when it seemed like the lynch was flipping on him. Unless he really thought he could still change the lynch onto Yamato, such a hard defense is uncharacteristic.
Will have to reread D3.
|
On March 05 2013 23:41 Adam4167 wrote:
Wait, that means Acro legitimately thought I was 3rd party?
How in the hell did you come up with that o.o
Probably in a similar warped way that you came up with the idea that dueling at the start of the day was a good idea.
|
Yes, lets worry about suicidal double-buses before we have even mislynched once.
What we could do instead is pit you and Alderan against each other and see what happens. I fully suspect you are scum, but Alderan's complete absence effectively allowed him to go completely awol during the single-most informative lynch of the game. That worries me a bit.
Lets get Alderan talking again.
|
On March 06 2013 00:28 yamato77 wrote:
Oats doubtful mafia.
Cora/Alderan/Acro/Zare
Mafia is among you.
I'll make it easier.
Zare
I'll filter him and give you a case when I get home, but I have fairly strong reasons for pretty much everybody else being town, and fairly strong reasons for Zapa being scum. Combine the two and the conclusion is pretty obvious.
|
On March 06 2013 00:40 Adam4167 wrote:
Go read Alderans filter, does it legitimately feel like hes trying to figure out anyone's alignment?
Alderan is an outside option. It's mostly a behavioural case for his towniness. He has been passionate about some things I can't imagine a scum being passionate about.
Hapa's reason for not wanting to double-lynch was fairly academic and he was never forceful about it. Alderan went balls-to-the-walls nuts about it.
|
Snarfs is town based on Hapa's posting. Hapa was really floppy on Snarfs. He first thought the opening post was townie, and when people in the thread were seeing it as scummy he tried to take advantage of it. His end-of-N0 reads were thrawn, Snarfs and Dieno. Seems unlikely he has 2 out of 3 actual scum. Then Hapa is back to Snarfs being town based on his vote (and the thread momentum swinging back to Snarfs=town). Later, when Hapa is running out of plausible scumreads, Snarfs is back to being scum. Conclusion: Snarfs
Weak evidence for Oats being town from Hapa's list post. That town read on Oats doesn't seem faked:
Oatsmaster seems townie due to his activity and his thought-process during the duel proceedings. He seems to care a lot about scumhunting... and well... just thinks a lot like a townie. Hard to put my finger on it, but it seems very genuine. That, and him being suspicious of marv in the early game against pretty much everyone else doesn't seem like a scum move to me.
Sylencia is town. Hapa proclaimed wanting to double-lynch Dieno and Sylencia. He then pushed it all throughout the lynch and wanted to nail thrawn for not double-lynching (nobody took that case seriously, and this was when Hapa flipflopped on thrawn). No way does a scum do that if both of them are scum. He was hoping Sylencia would stay lurked and he could get the 1-1 trade which was the best of a bad situation.
Zapa in Hapa's filter:
Zapa gets a nice soft-defense: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17882681 Why is Zapa thrown into this post? It just seems like a gratuitious soft-defense. Can't make too much of this association, but every time I read Hapa's filter this struck me as weird, and it still does.
Later in the game, Zapa starts being a bit of a scumread. Could be self-preservation, because half the thread was starting to get suspicious of Zapa, but could be build-up to a mislynch.
There's also the list post, in which Zapa gets thrown in with Snarfs:
For Snarfs + Zarapeth, of these guys voted only voted Kei, and did so at a time that seemed to swing the momentum onto Kei's bandwagon. Both of their filters are pretty "meh," but I can't find anything overtly scummy there, and their voting actions (and timing) suggest a townie motivation.
This is not actually an accurate representation of what happened and it seems to be worded in such a way so the whole happening puts Zapa in a better light than he deserves from what occurred.
Adam is town based on Hapa's posting. Unless that is one of the best covering stories I've ever seen, Hapa is super-hard defending Adam's townieness. The chance that this was a 3-way scumplay with Adam and Keir bussing each other and Hapa hard-defending Adam and bussing Keir is 0% (none, nada, zip, zero).
Alderan in Hapa's filter:
This can be summarized very easily. There is no significant mention of Alderan in Hapa's filter. He is silent as the grave on the matter. The only read on Alderan, and the first mention of him in the game by Hapa is in the list post:
For Alderan, there's nothing really conclusive in his filter since he was pretty clear that he thought both people on the block were town. His attitude is consistent, and I sympathise with it having initially been in the same situation to some extent. Also, I got some town vibes from his huge fight with Acro about not wanting to double-lynch. I'd expect mafia to not be as adamant against the idea.
Translation: I am the wishywash. Wishywash is my read. I can go whichever way the wind blows!
The only other mention of Alderan is when I pressure Hapa to give reads other than Yamato. His primary scumread is Zapa. If not Yamato or Zapa, then look into Alderan, Snarfs or Acro.
That second list is a very very safe place to hide a scumbuddy.
Based on Hapa's filter alone, Alderan pulls ahead in scumpoints.
On March 04 2013 09:46 Hapahauli wrote:
It is also possible that I'm a pink unicorn with butterfly wings.
Just because something is "possible" doesn't mean that you should dismiss the entire argument that my actions make no sense from a scum perspective. How likely is it that I did what I did as scum?
I hate pink unicorns. KABOOM MOTHAFUCKA.
|
So.
Based on duels and scumster actions: Adam, Yamato, Sylencia, Snarfs
Based on filter and ingame actions: Cora, Oats
I think the duel tomorrow is pretty self-evident: Zapa vs Alderan
I am warming to the whole Alderan is scum idea.
|
Read filters. Both Alderan and Zapa could be scum.
There's some townie stuff and some scummy stuff in both their filters.
Alderan
Town, because:
1. Super-early scumread on Dieno.
2. Aggressively fighting against the double-lynch.
Scum, because:
1. Very stingy with dishing out reads.
2. "Confirmed" townie into afk.
3. Very very stand-offish on the Keir/Adam lynch. Wanted to hammer whoever would result in not-a-double-lynch: cared nothing for who that was.
4. Brings up the double-lynch in the Dieno/Syl lynch while claiming he doesn't want to double-lynch. Suspicious minds could see this as scum hoping someone would hop off Dieno and start pushing a double-lynch
4. His stance on me is flip-flopping all over the place. Calls me scum, yet not-scum. Agrees with Yamato's case, but doesn't think I'm scum. The whole sequence just seemed incredibly useless at the time, but it could be malevolent.
Zapa
Town because:
1. Has made a number of posts that just seem horribly out of place for scum. Particularly:
On February 28 2013 08:13 zarepath wrote:
What about the case did you think wasn't good. I am trying to make better cases.
This was so disarming and unexpected, it instantly disarmed my scumread at the time and made me dismiss my case against him.
2. Once he decided he wanted Keir dead, he seemed to have conviction.
Scum because:
1. Most wishy-washy reads post in the entire game. Both Hapa and Dieno get a very vague read.
2. Wants to double-lynch Syl/Dieno with very little conviction. At the time I called it the worst post in the game, and it still is.
3. Seems to have a preconceived stance on the Hapa/Yamato lynch and "makes up" his defense based on this without analysing the arguments layed out in the thread.
4. Very stand-offish for most of the Adam/Keir lynch as if he is waiting to see where the thread will land.
5. Has been very wrong a bit too often for flimsy reasons.
I really don't see any reason not to pit these two in a face-off tomorrow unless Zapa has some objection to dueling Alderan (who has apparently decided that the best play this game is to take advantage of the lack of an activity requirement in the OP).
If Alderan stays absent or looks like scum, we kill him. If Zapa doesn't show us he's town, we kill him.
Now all that's left is for me to take another look at Cora's filter and make sure I haven't missed something.
|
Pretty much what Oats said. Not everybody concedes, and speculation about why scum hasn't conceded is the dumbest form of wifom.
It could be due to being afk. It could be because he just doesn't want to condede. It could be because we have made setup assumptions that are wrong. It could be because we are making a gigantic blunder and the scum is hiding in our list of townies. It could be because of some reason I haven't thought of.
The very premise of using that in your scumhunting is stupid.
What I do agree on is that Alderan should be dueled. He should be dueled by Zarepath. Anything other than this duel is a waste of time. Zapa, make it so.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
