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zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 12 2013 20:10 GMT
#723
I'll just say that voting for a non-poster doesn't necessarily not generate any information. But you have a point, and now I'm getting too deep into theory.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 12 2013 21:06 GMT
#724
Okay, the vote is in just four hours, yes?

I would really like everyone's opinion on warbaby. We certainly got away from him for a while, and he seemed less emotional, but I think we should all look at his filter again (I will be doing it, too), and decide if the second half of Day 1 changes how you see him for the first half of Day 1.

I would especially like to hear from 9-Bit, Mocheji, Sevryn, glurio, warbaby, Mandalor, and Sylencia.

I'll have my final read and vote before lynch time, hopefully early enough so that the last hours aren't insane.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 12 2013 21:20 GMT
#726
Sev has been pretty consistent on his read on Glurio, and hasn't really bandwagoned at all except on my fake case. He also pointed out Mandalor.

Glurio defended WB as town, attacks Mocsta, did a big case on Sn0 (you) and then said he only did it because he was told to, and then said he only did it as a trap (?). He did go out of his way to pressure Mandalor, though.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 12 2013 21:29 GMT
#729
Just popping in to say that Mocsta last posted 6 hours ago, which is really weird. I assume he must sleep at least 6 hours a day, though.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 00:02 GMT
#804
I'm short on time and, unfortunately, as thorough an analysis as I'd hoped. I will be voting for one of the following:

Sevryn, glurio, warbaby, Mandalor, Sylencia

I checked Sevryn's filter and I don't see him as scummy -- he really stuck to his guns with glurio and went out of his way to flush a lurker (Mandalor). The scummiest thing, IMO, was his reaction to my fake case, but he did bring some new insight to it, at least.

Glurio is the only person who has cared much about Sn0, and he's gone back to it a couple times. the scummiest thing about glurio is the fact that he has presented two contradictory reasons as to why he made the case (at least how I read him): 1, because he was told to (people telling him to make cases) even though he knew it wasn't the best case, and 2, he knew it was a bad case but wanted to catch scum agreeing with it. THAT sounds weird (although that's exactly what I did). He also pressured Mandalor, and tried to call attention off of Warbaby in what seemed like a pro-town way. glurio is null-scum to me.

Warbaby I didn't have time to read his whole filter. His leap onto my case was pretty suspect, and while he has been super defensive about his alignment, he hasn't scum hunted at ALL, at least that I can tell. But I haven't time right now to do a real check and will go with Sn0 on this one and give him another day.

Mandalor has not done anything particularly town-oriented that I can see and I have to go now

##Vote Mandalor
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 02:08 GMT
#902
WoS, I haven't seen your case on me in full, I skimmed through it as I checked who got lynched, but it's true that my final post was fairly scummy (no real case for my actual lynch target, just hunchiness). Sorry about that; time just got in the way, and of the scummiest player list that I"d made, I remembered Mandalor to be the scummiest other than warbaby and just didn't have time to do a better case/research.

Will be doing some thorough analysis for this night cycle (starting tomorrow, assuming work doesn't get in the way.)
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 03:04 GMT
#905
You can't attribute mathematical probabilities around the fact that one player doesn't like lurkers and is also a lurker, and has focused on one single read.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 17:02 GMT
#919
On February 14 2013 01:44 warbaby wrote:
I stand by my assertion that there's a good chance one of the people voting Glurio were scum. The votes were very spread out, but I can't see how a scum would resist the temptation to either lead a bandwagon on Glurio, or drive one home.


When all they have to do is simply be one of the five people voting by themselves, escaping all suspicion? Easy temptation to resist; they can just have three townies mislynch somebody while they camp on a worthless vote that they won't ever get criticized for.

I'm not saying that that's my read on what happened; I'm saying it seems just as likely. We need to be open to possibilities in our analysis.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 19:10 GMT
#934
Zarepath's Reads
by Zarepath

9-Bit
+ Show Spoiler +

Nothing to see. Looking forward to a modkill or replacement.


Sevryn
+ Show Spoiler +

I had a null read on him at the lynch -- he jumped on my fake case, added a little to it, tunneled glurio. But post-flip, he went very proactively defensive for it, saying that everybody was too focused on glurio/himself as the dichotomy. But HE was focused on glurio. Now that glurio's flipped, I want to see what his reads are on EVERYONE. If he was so certain about glurio, who does he think is scum now?

Slight scum read on Sevryn.


WaveofShadow
+ Show Spoiler +

I see him as being mostly proactive with a variety of reads. I don't understand what his big controversial post quoting Mocsta and Sn0_Man was about, other than the fact they wanted to go after lurkers and their plan failed. I read him as genuinely trying to help town.


Sn0_Man
+ Show Spoiler +

His filter's filled with a lot of theory, policy, and meta talk. He interacts directly with a lot of other posters, and is very active. But towards the end of Day 1, he was practically begging other people to make cases he could bandwagon onto, finally settling on Sevryn. He is active enough that I don't consider him scummy, but trudging through his filter doesn't make me think he's absolutely pro-town. Leaning town, but not as sure as I used to be.


ObviousOne
+ Show Spoiler +

His assessment of Day 1 was pretty useful. I agree with Mocsta that we need to see his reads. Null, slightly to town based on his opening, but only slightly.


Warbaby
+ Show Spoiler +

Starts with general policy talk, his third post is a list, needlessly antagonistic to WoS, bunch of meta, insults everybody's mafia skills, tells people to mislynch him, prefers voting lurkers over scum, constantly asserts that he has no idea who the scum are, his final top 3 are sylencia, sevryn, then glurio. Is now focused on sevryn. I don't think he's as scummy as I've thought of him now that I've read thorugh the whole filter; I have a null read on him now, depending on how his case on Sevryn develops.


geript
+ Show Spoiler +

Geript was one of the only ones who really dug into my fake WoS case. He bought it, but only after he went through it and actually criticized a few of the points. He now has a case on Corazon that is at least original, and it's labeled Case 1, suggesting he has another case coming. I read him as leaning town.


Mocsta
+ Show Spoiler +

Super active first half of Day 1, went to "actively lurking" since after pouting about knowing when he's not wanted, and has done a lot of things that I see as pro-town -- encouraging two names so we can have clear bandwagons, picking apart bad logic, etc. I read him as town. The only other thing I'll note is that it's odd how little he's contributed (although he still has tons of filter). I think he's legit going for a different strat, but will keep an eye on him, obviously.


Corazon
+ Show Spoiler +

His Day 1 seemed pretty typical of his town meta, but he really pushed on his WB vote but didn't actively try to persuade anyone else; he just kept re-quoting his case, and then when the lynch was getting confusing, instead of asking for consolidation onto his TOP READ that he's had all day, instead he bandwagons onto Glurio. It's hard to judge any voting motivations from the Day 1 lynch, but this is suspicious to me. He gave a pretty town response to my WoS case, though. Null, leaning town.


Mandalor
+ Show Spoiler +

Mandalor's filter looks very scummy. Every other post is a list, the main thrust of his case on Sylencia has to do with blue talk, and the case for his final vote is not compelling at all. He just drops a random vote and checks out, doesn't even wish town luck. (To be fair, I did something similar because of time and RL constraints.) People's reactions to my vote on Mandalor were that they had town reads on him, but I'd like to ask you all what specifically makes him look town to you, because I don't see much. Reads SCUM


Sylencia
+ Show Spoiler +

Pretty vocal opponent of RNG there at the beginning, then his activity fades from there. He speculates HARD on warbaby's possible blue roles, not necessarily a very pro-town thing to do in public on Day 1, and that is the biggest contribution he made at all. He said he hadn't read very many filters, admitted to tunneling warbaby, then voted for him. In the end, he posted this gem:

On February 13 2013 09:54 Sylencia wrote:
.. What lol, I gave my reasons before and I'm voting for him to consolidate my thoughts on him. I will have to change my vote to glurio if required to stay alive though.


Town don't change their votes in order to stay alive; town believe in their scum reads or are willing to work with other people's scum reads. THey certianly don't do so just to stay alive; lynching scum is more important than a town's individual life. This quote makes it sound as though his number one concern is not being lynched.

It's worth going through all the filters, apparently, because this was the last post in the final filter, and I think it's the biggest, latest scum tell.


In conclusion, people I think are suspicious and would like other's thoughts on:
Sevryn
Warbaby
Mandalor
Sylencia

Obv and 9-Bit's replacement also deserve scrutiny.

But right now my two biggest reads are Sylencia and Mandalor. I think people should look at my brief reads on them, read their filters, and I want to hear your own conclusions.

"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 19:12 GMT
#935
On February 14 2013 04:09 geript wrote: His unwillingness to vote warbaby means something which IMO is that he doesn't want to get blamed for a bad case and town/flip.


But then why would he ensure a different town flip? He looks equally as bad, possibly even moreso for skipping out on his "top read" in order to mislynch a townie.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 19:24 GMT
#938
On February 14 2013 04:16 Sn0_Man wrote:
If there are 2 clear wagons, one on confirmed town and one on a null read, you get on the null read one to save the confirmed town.

That is why Syl would change his vote to save himself.

And you think that those circumstances applied at all? The wagon on confirmed town would have to be on HIM, and there was no such wagon.

YOu can sya he was proactively saying it in case the situation arose, but why bring it up in the first place? I'm saying that it shows that saving himself was at the forefront of his mind, and he was willing to not lynch scum to do so.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 19:37 GMT
#942
I'd be all ears to another Sylencia case. I'd probably end up voting for him unless he pulls some good town play out of his butt, but there's really no substance to his filter and I still can't see where the town motivation for that quote is.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 19:43 GMT
#945
Fair points, Sn0, but I don't see why he's proactively saying it.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 19:57 GMT
#949
On February 14 2013 04:52 ObviousOne wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2013 04:43 zarepath wrote:
Fair points, Sn0, but I don't see why he's proactively saying it.

Clarify please. Who is 'he'?

This is in reference to Syl saying that he would switch his vote to glurio if he has to in order to save himself... but not while he's under any real pressure.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 20:04 GMT
#951
Okay, I'm going to go look at the votes for when Syl said that. I was assuming it was 1 or zero votes, but let me check.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 20:09 GMT
#953
Okay, so Syl had 2 votes on him and was set to be lynched when he said that. My point is worth completely ignoring now, LOL. Sorry about that.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 13 2013 20:13 GMT
#955
It almost sounds like the mods constructed a specimen made of the parts of fallen mafia vets, designed and and brought back to life with a single purpose of winning this game of mafia.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 14 2013 01:37 GMT
#1012
I'm convinced that the scum shot WaveofShadow, and here's why:

On February 11 2013 13:04 WaveofShadow wrote:Obviously the Day is still young but I expect more from my Town as the day progresses.


That read to me as a very clear DT claim, and is what led me to doing my fake case on Wave -- I was pretty sure I'd found the DT and wanted to know who was willing to see him dead. Unfortunately, the fact that I saw his claim means that scum could also have seen the claim and decide to kill him N1. That same logic leads to scum not wanting to be any part of a mislynch on him, because they know he'll flip blue and they can't have that blood on their hands, which makes me think that scum are most likely to be the ones that gave support to my case but didn't push it.

I don't know why Wave made a fake DT claim, other than to lure a mafia hit, of course. Or there's also the possibility that it wasn't a DT claim at all and he just randomly screwed up his capital letters.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 14 2013 01:40 GMT
#1014
I don't understand how geript is a good target for either an SK or a Vig, but I've never played with an SK. Geript wasn't exactly a lurker, and of the bottom 5 contributors, he was a head above the others, imo.
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
zarepath
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1626 Posts
February 14 2013 01:46 GMT
#1019
Mocsta, can you explain this please?

On February 14 2013 08:18 Mocsta wrote:
@Sn0_Man
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2013 02:09 Sn0_Man wrote:
On a slightly different topic:
I would like to hear an explanation of this line Mocsta. I asked before but I don't remember much of an answer.
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2013 15:23 Mocsta wrote:
You know what, *this* post made me realise where geript commentary came from, specifically claim town vs think town.

It has to do with:
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2013 11:40 geript wrote:
I didn't claim warbaby as town; I stated I think he's town. There's a big difference between the two.
back to rereading

Then our conversation
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2013 15:03 Sn0_Man wrote:
I still don't see it as a "chainsaw defence of a scumbuddy".
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2013 15:23 Mocsta wrote:You know what, *this* post made me realise where geript commentary came from, specifically claim town vs think town.

The point being; it never clicked with me why Geript mentioned he was saying he thought WB was town, instead of claimed town. When you said, it may not have been a "scum buddy" it all clicked together.

I countered by saying:
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2013 15:23 Mocsta wrote:
just keep in mind please; chainsaw defense doesnt apply to just defending scum buddy. its basically just attacking the someones attacker personally (instead of their argument). So can be applied to defending town.




I didn't understand this at all; it seemed kind of cryptic. Were you saying that geript might be a Mason with Warbaby or something?
"Your efforts you put in will never betray you." - Flash | "If I'm not good enough, I don't wanna win." - Naniwa
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