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Newbie Mini Mafia XXXVII - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 06:47 GMT
#283
OK, time to put me heart on me sleeve and share the hidden motivation.,

A successful RNG campaign is like getting the 1500wins with all 3 races achievement in starcraft.

i.e. its fuckn hard achievement (even 2 years into SC)

To do this in the newbie league, is like getting the 1500wins with all 3 races achievement NOW in Heart of the Swarm.

Fellow newbies, we have an opportunity here to be part of something great. Something unique. SOMETHING that will be recorded in the history of TL-Forum Mafia.

We may even make the 2013 TL Mafia awards for BEST PLAY 2013.

How can you seriously consider turning down this opportunity?

Join me!

##Vote: RNG



For those worried about "hacking the source". that is fine.(what he said went over my head). That is fine, im here to look for solutions to get this bandwagon starting.
How about:
Make a live video of opening a new workbook in excel, setup a random number between 1-13 and lynch from that. I dont see how that can be faked (because its new, there is no vba behind it).
Start the live feed by posting in the thread, so we know its live as well?
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 06:50 GMT
#286
On February 10 2013 15:14 Sylencia wrote:
RNG lynch is pretty horrible, 77% chance you hit a non-scum and you get 0 info out of it whatsoever because there would be little reason to accuse people of anything. Blank day, waste of time and only really reduces town chance of winning

Have you gone through every newbie, and recorded the success rate of hitting scum Day 1?

If not, perhaps you're not in a position to give an opinion that is indicative of expertise.

Let me tell you, we are up to Newbie 37.

The last game I know of scum lynched Day1 = newbie 31.

The last game before that, is so long ago, it is a statistical outlier.

1 D1 scum in 6 games = 16.6% chance to lynch scum

RNG (3 / 13) = 23% chance to lynch scum.

Dunno about you, but my maths suggest 23% >>> 16.6%

Henceforth, RNG >>> Newbie Scum hunting.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 06:51 GMT
#287
On February 10 2013 15:50 Sn0_Man wrote:
RNG is a terrible idea. Not voting for it no matter what I roll. People in favour of it (after role pms are sent out) are scummy in my eyes.

Look at the post below

The percentages speak for themselves.

If you do not vote RNG after the Role PMs, then YOU SIR, are scummy in my eyes!
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 06:52 GMT
#288
P.S. unlike others who have proposed RNG (after the game has started)

I will more than accept my fate if the # arrived is my own demise.

That I stand by.

I believe in this.

Believe in it with me!
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 07:00 GMT
#289
LOl

just did a
=randbetween(1,13)

#9
Sorry zarepath, your out
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 07:04 GMT
#292
Thanks for chipping in Aquanim.

Guess you forgot about your Day1 mislynch campaign on Spaghetticus already.

Its OK, everyone can name 13 people in the obs qt to hit scum Day 1
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 07:06 GMT
#293
P.S.

I would contest you gain MORE INFORMATION.

Why?

If the RNG is scum; who is going to save their buddies from a Day1 "mislynch".

I should *NOT* need to explain this one to you.



The percentages speak for themselves.

RNG >> Newbie level scum hunting
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-10 07:17:28
February 10 2013 07:11 GMT
#296
On February 10 2013 16:08 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 10 2013 16:04 Mocsta wrote:
Thanks for chipping in Aquanim.

Guess you forgot about your Day1 mislynch campaign on Spaghetticus already.

Its OK, everyone can name 13 people in the obs qt to hit scum Day 1


I didn't say you hit scum day 1 every time. Besides, the other wagon was on Corazon, who was scum. In XXXI I wanted to lynch Kick day 1, and he was scum (Kick is always scum in my games, go figure.)

But my actual point is... the reactions of everyone to that case on Spaghetticus told me FAR, FAR more than a random lynch would have.

You know if someone else wrote this RNG stuff, I am not so certain you would bother saying your 2cents.

Regardless,

Anyone can say they had a scum read on Day1 in the firing line. This game isnt about shoulda, woulda, coulda.

Its about who has the majority when the timer runs out.

Suffice to say, your track record isn't looking relevant to coming in here and playing the expert card.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 07:15 GMT
#298
On February 10 2013 16:09 Aquanim wrote:
Yeah, yeah, sure. And on the >70% times you hit town you gain absolutely NOTHING. Good one.

Edit: You do seem to be assuming that you'll always hit scum with a RNG lynch. Which is so very not true.


Im not pretending the game is solved by implementing Day1 RNG.

Im also not pretending OR overstating that the game is solved by scum hunting Day 1.


I am stating, RNG gives us statistically a better chance to have town in even-stead with scum Day2.

That has not been refuted by any arguments thus far.


You act as if RNG means, discussion in town is over; in fact it is not.

Discussion continues, one guy is voted; and the hunt continues for more scum.

Stop pretending as if this action stops all other criteria for good town play. It most certainly does not.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 07:20 GMT
#300
On February 10 2013 16:13 warbaby wrote:
RNG can be a last resort, that we decide on only in the last hour of D1 (or not at all), and only in the absence of lurkers. So there can still be voting patterns to analyze.

I'm not sold on RNG though, and I think using a predetermined RNG from the pre-game is probably cheating.

The difference between (unmanipulated) RNG and trying to lynch a scum (absent an obvious scumslip) is huge. Scums use their information advantage to lead the bandwagon on D1 to make sure a town is lynched. They can use multiple town targets to obfuscate their voting patterns. True RNG is random, which a D1 "scumhunt" will never be.

e: To clarify, a true RNG has a chance of hitting scum D1. Absent terribly bad scum play, trying to hunt scum D1 has a 100% chance of lynching a town (although there can be information in the voting patterns).


I dont know if this is possible.

BUT

If the moderator agreed to produce a RNG #, would you trust that?



Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 07:21 GMT
#302
On February 10 2013 16:18 Sylencia wrote:
Moc: Newbie 33 featured one too didn't it? (Whichever one my first game was)

Newbie 33 = Spag mislynch

Newbie 31 = scum lynch of Oatsmaster
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 07:22 GMT
#304
On February 10 2013 16:21 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 10 2013 16:18 Sylencia wrote:
Moc: Newbie 33 featured one too didn't it? (Whichever one my first game was)

Newbie 33 = Spag mislynch

Newbie 31 = scum lynch of Oatsmaster


The only other game I am aware of in the past 3months with a scum lynch Day 1

= Mario Mini (Hapa lynched Day 1)
&
Mafia LIX (prplhz lynched Day 1)

Both those games were full of highly experienced players
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 07:23 GMT
#308
On February 10 2013 16:21 warbaby wrote:
I have no idea why a moderator would do that. Why don't you stop posting for a bit Mocsta, you're just repeating yourself and nobody is really agreeing with you.

OooO Warbaby

you were meant to be my clone. The line is drawn in the sand I see.

Its Ok my dear
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 07:42 GMT
#310
On February 10 2013 16:23 Rad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 10 2013 16:21 Mocsta wrote:
On February 10 2013 16:18 Sylencia wrote:
Moc: Newbie 33 featured one too didn't it? (Whichever one my first game was)

Newbie 33 = Spag mislynch

Newbie 31 = scum lynch of Oatsmaster


Try again! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=385389

What's even better is they basically had me day 1 also, but just couldn't pull everyone together for my lynch.

LEARN HOW TO PLAY THE GAME BETTER IN THE NEWBIES. HUNT SCUM. GET BETTER AT HUNTING SCUM. LYNCH SCUM WITH YOUR SKILLS D1 FOR EPIC FEEL GOODS.

That's what I'd suggest ^^


Big deal, wrote a 1 instead of a 2. Point?

If you want to show us your great scum hunting skills, maybe you should have joined.

Everyone has a big dick in the obs; theres no pressure and you're not caught in the moment.

Rad, even the some of the vets are proponents of the RNG Day 1 lynch. Theres a good reason for that. *Mostly what I have been saying, statistically town is better off*

And if you want to stand here and tell me, your scum hunting is on par with the vets *I am all ears*



P.S.
Its not like this is my idea from scratch.
I am playing a game now, where this topic was raised. Hence the concept.
I also just watched a vid from a vet giving reads, where some musings on the topic was given. There is validity behind this.

Your reactions are the same I had, when first presented with the concept. But that was mainly because it was raised during the Day1 play; where you cant be certain of agenda.

Im mentioning this PRE-GAME, and saying I am comfortable if it leads to my demise - regardless of alignment. Completely different situation.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 07:59 GMT
#312
In an interesting twist of events, non-RNG related.

Any of these non-playing lurkers want to replace for me?

i.e. Aquanim/Rad/whoever else?
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 08:28 GMT
#314
Rad;

The only person who has put up rational conversation against RNG is Aquanim; perhaps yourself.
(mind you, only 3 or 4 of the 13 listed players have actually commented)

Other commentary is not even related to discussing any RNG pros or cons. Its just weak argumentation against my valid points.
And lets not forget JSL suggesting a fantastic proof method "everyone submit one number, than divide by 13".

The real point is: yes this is pre-game and all are welcome to post.
However, the case for RNG is something that immediately influences this game.
I know this is a polarising topic worthy of discussion in general but I ask to keep it to the obs qt.
As far as I am concerned, you should not be commenting on this topic due to the impact I just described.

As an aside: If RNG was to be discussed, IMHO it can only be done pre-game, otherwise the whole situation is WIFOM and never takes off.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-10 10:01:36
February 10 2013 10:00 GMT
#317
On February 10 2013 18:40 warbaby wrote:
Jacob's idea makes sense. I've also been making sense, but apparently you don't understand me or chose to ignore me. Two players have rejected your idea, and now you want to leave the game. That's unfortunate, as your plan requires a majority of the players to agree before the game starts.


Dude

(1) Most of what you were commenting on was about live feed manipulation IIRC apologies if it was more substantial.

&

(2) I clearly said me wanting to leave was nothing to do with RNG, was just bad timing on something else - which I am still awaiting an answer for.



Mr. Clone, everything I have been saying is without hidden agenda.

(x) I am involved in a game where RNG was brought up *I cant comment on the game due to rules*

(1) When raised during a game, it is easy to say "No" as its quite a shock to the standard way of playing. Thus it needs to be raised pre-game to bring attention to the benefits (and cons)

(2) Everyone forgets, with RNG, its not like the game goes on hold for 48hrs. You keep talking, keep developing scum reads. Its a case of, most times Day1 cases are a lottery based on "perceived scum slips". If taking a gamble, might as well do it via RNG.

(3) I liked the point too. If someone makes a huge scum slip and is obvious scum, than yes, policy lynch that scum motherfucker over the RNG. (This is the whole reason the topic gets discussed)

Fact is Warbaby, your medic death last game could have been prevented in 3 methods of varying difficulty
(a) You improved your play and not made the soft-claim
(b) Town improved their play and realised your lynch didn't make sense
(c) implement RNG and there is a (12/13) 92% chance you WONT be lynched.

I dunno about you, but I think (c) is the easiest to implement.

*Edit* just saw your post above.
I thought you were lynched Day1? ohh well points (1)-(3) still hold
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 10:18 GMT
#319
OoO thrawn2112

We're trying for a TL 2013 award here

Anyways, gonna go reformat my comp now, have fun.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 13:08 GMT
#324
U k ow what is dumb

Reformatting your comp
And all setup files are on the has

Can't even get Ethernet drivers going without some USB action

Sigh

Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9389 Posts
February 10 2013 13:47 GMT
#325
P.s. war baby I made up my mind
Still /in

If u must know I was tossing up between this and theme mafia. Could only play one

He he hopefully u get some guilt trip now for RNG hehe
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