Newbie Mini Mafia XXXVI
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zarepath
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zarepath
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- Have a clear, consolidated vote on Day 1 so you can more easily pressure and read mafia participation - Don't be lazy in your analysis, and take the effort to examine the people you're NOT certain are mafia, not just the ones you think you ARE certain about I'm going to a coworker's wedding tomorrow evening and then Sundays I'm barely available at all. So my Day 1 participation is not going to be great, all told; apologies in advance. Hopefully I'll be able to participate enough, and productively enough, to persuade I'm pro-town. It's typical of my meta that I start off slow for the first day or so and then pick up once the data starts rolling in. I don't find anything wrong with warbaby's post. I personally really dislike needless aggression, and I think that hurts the town environment far too often. | ||
zarepath
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How do you feel about LAL, Acid? | ||
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Warbaby, Mocsta did claim town when he said something like, "How do you think I can contribute so much and so freely? Because I'm town and have nothing to hide." That was Day 1, BTW. Don't "shut up for a while." That's not town-motivated. Think about who else you'd like to pressure. If you shut up every time somebody criticizes you for pressuring them, that's not going to go super well. Yes, SkaPunk, Acid is "mad" already. Last game I assumed that meant he was scum, because his first posts were blazing guns posts, but I think he just likes to throw his weight around to see how others respond. (He was town btw.) But metas don't necessarily mean everything so feel free to keep looking for scumminess there; I don't see it yet. Corazon, I very much think we should vote for a lurker Day 1. There's little reason to vote for an active player, IMO, on such a small amount of data. My reads are all very close to null at this point on everyone. As I mentioned earlier, Sundays are by far my busiest days. I will check in on the thread here and there, but I feel like I need to put a vote down now in case I can't. So I am going to LAL today, and pick the one with the most lurker name: ##Vote: AFKing Should he contribute by the time I next check back in, I'll re-evaluate. | ||
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Just saying. | ||
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On January 27 2013 05:52 cDgCorazon wrote: I don't think Warbaby has done that. It take a lot of work to create an environment where people are afraid to post. Attacking one person does not create such an environment. What happened with Acid is just friendly sparring on D1. On January 27 2013 15:03 cDgCorazon wrote: Btw, I'm also noting how you guys haven't payed attention to anyone else's posts and are only focusing on your little "who has a larger penis" competition. On January 28 2013 11:18 cDgCorazon wrote: I wouldn't have a problem with you pressuring him, but the fact that he (Acid~) disagreed with you and then you just went berserk on him over that one point. Corazon has shifted dramatically from calling the Warbaby/acid interaction "friendly sparring" to a "who has a larger penis competition" and "you just went berserk on him." Inconsistency in his opinions. His others posts are pretty fluffy. First game post is about avoiding confirmation bias and how we should use FoS instead of voting if we're just trying to pressure someone (unsure why), telling us not to rely too much on old metas, more on metas, condemning the 3 lurkers, voting for the only lurker nobody else has voted for, Mocsta as a potential replacement, the 1/3 chance of getting someone via LAL (which he later refers to as us having had ZERO chance; another inconsistency), talking about warbaby's pressure on acid, which he condemns but also talks about how defensive acid was... I don't know, I don't see clear direction in his analysis/play. Acid's meta, in my experience, has been a little abrasive, and Cora knows that because he modded that game I played with Acid. I find it odd for him to call Acid out on being emotional during N1 when during D1 he ignored it as friendly sparring. His reason for voting for SkaPunk doesn't seem very good: On January 28 2013 09:55 cDgCorazon wrote: A scum would be more likely to post and then take advantage of 2 other people not posting to fly under the radar than they would be to not post anything at all. Wouldn't scum more likely take advantage of that scenario by just posting MORE? If he can distance himself more than just a single post, especially with people beginning to vote on him, he would have done it, I think. Not necessarily scummy, but bad logic. We have a lot of inactive players who need to be pressured and need to contribute, but in such an inactive thread, the person who seems scummiest to me right now is Corazon. | ||
zarepath
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More scummy, to me, is his hypothetical replacement talk with all these Q's to the mods he could've found out easily from reading the OP. It read a lot as angsty fluff to me. | ||
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HOWEVER, in his vote post, he only describes the other two lurkers as lurkers, so it's easy to see how he'd already calculated Abenson out, I suppose. | ||
zarepath
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But now that I re-read your question, you're actually asking me about warbaby. Now that I look at it, his vote-switching was REALLY odd. He started the wagon on Skapunk, then ditched it for Abenson, and when he realized Abenson wasn't a real vote, he switched to AFKing. Now that Skapunk's flipped town, his vote-switching could be seen as scum motivated to avoid credit for the mislynch. | ||
zarepath
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Warbaby's jump is justified by the fact that scum would want to bus Skapunk, and therefore anyone NOT voting for Skapunk cannot be mafia, and therefore Warbaby should vote with Cora or Zarepath. But then in the end, he still ends up voting for Skapunk??? I think Sn0's right that day 1 pretty much sucked for providing analysis material, but this is the most significant vote behavior we have to look at right now, and it's worth examining. | ||
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Heading out soon for the night, look forward to seeing night actions and what people's wills are. I'll try to post a will-ish thing before deadline but no promises. | ||
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And what the heck is this about criticizing someone for throwing around their vote too early D2, and therefore, you immediately vote for them? You have hardly any consistency in your stances or opinions. If you truly suspected Acid to be scum, you would encourage him to post more and welcome his analysis so you could scour it for evidence, not lash out at him while refusing to defend yourself in any way. Town can be confident in their defense; it costs little to make because you don't have to lie. | ||
zarepath
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I am not going to get into this anymore. I will ignore everything you say about Acid now so you'd better start analyzing elsewhere. | ||
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On January 29 2013 15:30 warbaby wrote: OK, fine. I can't come up with any reason you're wrong about this. I don't currently think Zare is scum, and he's telling me to do this as well. Noted.... I'll be looking through filters today between tasks at work, everybody's filter but warbaby for now. We are very focused on him right now as a town (not necessarily undeservedly) and I worry that too many are getting by without contributing because of that. | ||
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Is signing up for a game you don't necessarily have the time to play a scum tell, warbaby? | ||
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I think what Sn0_Man said about blue claim theory makes the most sense for now -- wait until you're going to get mislynched or you're in a MYLO/LYLO situation, or at least near one. | ||
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by Zarepath [spoiler: I think he's scummy] On January 28 2013 05:08 cDgCorazon wrote: Well there's a 1/3rd chance that we lynch the right player if we LAL today. So there's not much to lose on a lurker lynch. I really hope that all three of them aren't mafia, because if they do not vote and get modkilled (I hope I'm not breaking a rule by saying that) there are some scary players waiting in the replacement section if they're all mafia. Just theorycrafting. Hosts let me know if I broke any rules by speculating about it. One of the game's scummiest posts, IMO. Theorycrafting and blatant rule-breaking and no real drive to hunt for scum; this post characterizes Corazon's D1 participation pretty well. On January 28 2013 10:06 cDgCorazon wrote: Well, the chances of us getting a scum D1 were zero. I'm gonna relook over the day's events and let you all know if I find anything of importance. I mentioned earlier how this contradicts his earlier post about the chances of finding scum D1. He's obviously not very consistent with his desire/town's ability to find scum. On January 29 2013 10:57 cDgCorazon wrote: I'm really sorry that I couldn't post my last thoughts, my phone died and I just got home. However, I would like to make a general answer to the accusations made against me. Being inconsistent: You're right Zare, my focus just has not been here over the first day. I'm making a promise to all of you now that I'm going to read the thread again before saying anything. No more inconsistencies. If you're expecting a defense to this point, you're not gonna get one. I've been wasting my time. Voting for Ska: At the point in time I was going to vote for Ska, it was already going to be him lynched, with 3 people voting for him who wouldn't be able to change their votes before the deadline. I voted Abenson to make sure all of the lurkers knew that we would not allow for lurking. Once I was notified that Abenson didn't exist, I just decided to consolidate our vote for Ska. Glurio's comment that something in my post was fishy (without actually saying which part was fishy) is scummy in itself, trying to distract the town by getting them to find a deeper meaning in everything that I post. Not knowing set-up/being ignorant: I've already stated this, it's a massive WIFOM bomb. Stop distracting town with it. Me not playing to my "usual standard" (whatever that is): In the past two games I've played, I spent 6 Days as scum and 1 day as town. So perhaps me not playing like I did in XXXIII means I'm town? Now to the scumhunting part. The problem I'm having with Acid right now is that all he has done the whole game is tunneled Warbaby. I know he's going after his scum read, but most of his posts have been in his argument with WB and attacking WB. I made an argument against him asking for a reply, and it has completely ignored in his pursuit to have Warbaby lynched at all costs. Ignoring an argument is an automatic FoS for me. If he was town, why would he ignore an argument made against him. If he is truly innocent, he can explain his behavior, not ignore me and hope it blows over. FoS: Acid~ I'm gonna go through the thread again just to make sure I didn't miss anything. Last note for this long post: Zare, I'm glad you got your RL stuff out of the way. Your case against me was the most solid of the multiple arguments (I really can't call any of the rest cases) against me. It's going a long way for me to believe that you are town. Keep it up. In his long post, he calls Glurio, Acid, and whoever it is he calls out for the "massive WIFOM bomb" of saying it's scummy that he didn't know the setup, was ignorant, etc; scummy. At the end, he goes way out of his way to compliment the person who put a case on him; "Keep it up buddy! You're helping town so much by analyzing me! Good work!" This smells a little of overcompensation, a Congratulating the Medic deal. Town would not go out of their way to compliment the people going after them; town doesn't want to waste town's time by being analyzed, they want to go after scum. But Corazon doesn't really attempt to confirm his towniness except by throwing barbs at three different people and FoSing Acid for "tunneling" the game's scummiest player, warbaby. Here's a thing about tunneling, people -- it's only tunneling if your analysis is loaded with confirmation bias and you refuse to see evidence in anything else. If you have a scum read on someone, it's totally appropriate to pressure that person continually for more information. If you're sure they'll be lynched, it's STILL appropriate to pressure them for more information because they're going to be dead soon and unable to give up any more details. Let's quit using the term "tunneling" to mean anytime somebody focuses on a single player, okay? It's more about being blind to other possibilities and having confirmation bias than it is focusing on a single player. Cora requotes himself, then quotes me to say I summed it up nicely, then puts some pressure on WB, calling him out along with the rest of us, which does seem fairly town but he did put the FoS on Acid first. But in his continual pressure on WB, he doesn't make a case for his scumminess; he just pleads with him to stop dragging town down. It's his "execution" that's the problem, not the case itself. He's doing work here to suggest that WB is simply bad town, not active scum. When it comes down to his ultimatum on the fact that it's between Acid and WB, he chooses Acid because WB is the town jester, a persona that Cora has crafted for him over all of his facetious posts ("extra, extra!"). He requotes Sn0 without any additional content. He condemns Acid so severely for tunneling WB -- in fact, it's the core of his case on him. But I don't see a cohesive scum case or clear direction in Corazon's play, or even a modicum of contemplation, or for seeking relevant new information. Corazon looks scummy to me. | ||
zarepath
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by Zarepath [spoiler: he also looks scummy, but moreso imo] A lot has been said about warbaby, much of which I agree with. He was wildly emotional, defensive, and irrational for the first half of D2, and his most level-headed tone was used to ask if the medic should role-claim (on day 2???). Here are a few other posts from his filter that I believe show a few things that add to the overall case for WB's scumminess: On January 29 2013 15:30 warbaby wrote: OK, fine. I can't come up with any reason you're wrong about this. I don't currently think Zare is scum, and he's telling me to do this as well. ##Unvote: Acid~ ##FoS: Acid~ By my own logic I find Acid~ scummier than Sn0man, currently. So I'm switching my middle finger of suspicion to Acid~. This does not seem like a very town-motivated thing to do. Town's number one role is to lynch scum, and their vote is their most powerful tool. A townie with a case on someone as being scum should have enough confidence in their case that they don't unvote just because somebody else thinks it's a bad policy; they defend their case and develop it throughout the day. I don't see a problem with voting early D2 as long as the case gets developed; it certainly puts pressure on scum if they're a recipient of an early vote. (Note that he claims he's doing it because I told him to; if I recall correctly, my main concern was that he built literally zero case before voting Acid back, not that I think he should unvote.) However, scum is paranoid about being seen as a Member of the Town, and is more likely to buckle under policy pressure instead of sticking to their guns so that they can be seen as part of the group. More scummy in this post is something that he also did on Day 1 -- couch his decisions with town reads on other people. He's not just unvoting because Corazon thinks it's bad policy, but because Zarepath also told him to, and Zarepath is town. I don't know how much I like someone constantly doing things just because their town reads tell them to do so. Town has no reason to entrust their analysis and activity to ANYONE else, even if they think they're town; and they certainly have no reason to go out of their way to justify their actions by saying "Look, this guy told me to, and he's town." Scum, however, would not mind creating associations with players that most people have a town read on (I get the sense that most people have a town read on me). On Day 1, this was how he justified jumping off of the inevitable Skapunk lynch -- scum would want to bandwagon it, therefore anyone not voting for Skapunk is NOT scum, therefore if he votes with them he's not voting with scum. Again, he's justifying his decisions by relying on the towniness of others, making all of his faults and decisions not just HIS faults and decisions, but a product of other players' decisions. In total, warbaby seems oddly concerned with how others in town perceive him and, while active, doesn't contribute to a pro-town environment. On January 30 2013 04:15 warbaby wrote: EBWOP: Glurio's level of contribution is ONLY going to hinder other towns from making a read on glurio. This could be a scum slip -- "other towns" implies that Glurio is town, but it could be argued that that implication is only within the hypothetical scenario that warbaby is exploring wherein Glurio needs to prove that he's town. Null. Just thought I'd bring this up. On January 30 2013 14:41 warbaby wrote: In case it's not 100% clear: FoS'ing me based on the case Glurio is making, is reasonable if he is town and trying to pressure me. Voting me immediately on D2 and then taking off for 24h is not reasonable (sorry, I can't drop it -- this just pisses me off too much). In case it's also not clear, my position is as stands: ##FoS: Acid~ And my vote rests on nobody at the moment. Zarepath make posts please. This is one of the latest posts by warbaby. He is concerned with illustrating his current status. Telling others to make posts is an easy "town-motivated" thing for scum to do, and I like to think that town would ideally do it with a little more nuance (specific questions, reasons why this person in particular should post more, suspicious things they need to answer for, certain cases that need to be looked into, etc.). I still have issues with warbaby's core case on Acid being based around his "outrage" at the fact that Acid has 24-hr work commitments. It's the point that I remember most from all of warbaby's analysis of him. What happened to his AFKing/cakepie concern, that cakepie would need to post some good stuff D2 or else we should lynch him? No, now he's just too "pissed off" at Acid. And really, this doesn't even get into his frantic leap off of the Skapunk train D1. I think that warbaby is the best lynch candidate we have right now. [b]##Vote: warbaby Also, a reminder to everyone to avoid association cases (I think I may have a few association cases in my Corazon read, actually) until after the flip. Individual reads are more valuable now, and I'll continue to do some individual reads through more filter work as I have time between tasks at work. | ||
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Cora is right that we do need to look outside of just Acid/warbaby, and I think that cakepie (I honestly forgot the name, it's not in the filters in the OP), glurio, and Slayalot are low enough in contribution that they deserve some scrutiny. Cakepie especially I'm interested in hearing more from. | ||
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If there's something specifically scummy you'd like me to respond to, I suggest you point it out in place of more abstract summaries ("There isn't any fire in him to kill scum," "easy post without any real goal"). I thought my posts were pretty well goal-oriented. | ||
zarepath
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If you role claim any later than the next hour or so, I'm going to ignore any further role claims from you. You're in no position to be a tease about this. | ||
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I am feeling that warbaby's medic claim is solid. It sucks that we had to make him do it, but now that it's out I think that it's for real. ##Unvote: warbaby | ||
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##Vote cDgCorazon If warbaby is telling the truth, and we have no counterclaim to say otherwise, I was set to be lynched N1. What happened N1? I made a case on Corazon. What happened afterwards? corazon made a post defending himself from my read but also going out of his way to say that I was a good town and doing good work. Medic sees that and thinks, "Oh, Corazon likes zarepath; he must not be mafia." Day 2. I assumed all of his posturing with warbaby was to make warbaby look like a bad town so we wouldn't lynch him -- in reality, it was to get him riled up so that we would lynch him but he would look like he was in the right to only consider him bad town. He goes out of his way to say "We have wasted our day going between warbaby and Acid," he always talks about how it's ONLY between those two (nice for mafia planning for us to have to choose between two townies). Corazon has looked scummy, but now that I truly bleieve warbaby is telling the truth, Corazon looks VERY scummy. | ||
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![]() I am very convinced of this Corazon case. I have no idea why people are still voting for a medic claimer with no competing claim. I did that myself in a recent newbie game, figuring that he must be super duper sneaky and the real cop just isn't available... guess what? He was cop. That doesn't mean for sure that warbaby isn't lying, but as a general rule, it's pretty silly to vote for a medic claimer when nobody else is claiming it. | ||
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I feel pretty good about this one. | ||
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On January 31 2013 08:46 Sn0_Man wrote: So, we have located the bandwagon scum wishes to push, and it is on corazon. Somewhat interesting. Scum would rather that they bandwagon on an obvious choice, not go out of their way to make a new one on somebody else and put themselves out there on the flip. I don't like how you make this an absolute without even considering that the people voting for Corazon aren't scum. What do you think of warbaby's claim? Because if he's telling the truth, he and I are most likely town, and you just called us scum bandwagoners. But you took your vote off of warbaby. If you think he's scum, why isn't it still there? | ||
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Corazon yet somehow thinks we are a scum team? We've tied ourselves to each other in a super obvious way -- he with claiming the save, me with believing him and defending him. this would be the worst scum play in the world -- well, second worst, after claiming medic several hours before lynch deadline without knowing whether there's a medic. There is no rationale behind Corazon believing us both to be scum -- he is just trying to save himself by putting a fourth vote on warbaby under awful reasoning. He is willfully ignoring AN UNCONTESTED ROLE CLAIM. | ||
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On January 31 2013 08:54 cDgCorazon wrote: BECAUSE THE MEDIC HAS BEEN WARNED TO NOT COUNTER-CLAIM. ARE YOU READING THE THREAD? And then asked repeatedly by the same person to claim anyway! There is no way a medic in his right mind would NOT counter-claim right now. | ||
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On January 31 2013 08:58 Sn0_Man wrote: At this point, I could actually see something like an acid/zare scumteam but we can't lynch one of them in time I don't think. Still fairly confident warbaby is scum though. You yourself have been begging fo ra counterclaim... how can you be so confident with an uncontested claim? This doesn't make any sense to me. | ||
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On January 31 2013 08:59 cDgCorazon wrote: Imagine if I hadn't put this to light and I get lynched. WB can still have a valid doctor claim (unless someone counter claims). Zare could chalk it up to the scum not thinking about the plan that he proposed. You would probably be on the chopping block. If he still has a valid doctor claim possibility, why are you voting for him??? And if it's a valid claim, then I am town because I was saved, except for the 1/4 chance that ther eis also a jailkeeper who ALSO picked me (completely randomly), but I would know, and I didn't get the notification. The chances are astronomically small. There is NO REASON to believe warbaby is scum at this point. You yourself believe his claim could be true... but you're voting for him? Just to save yourself, obviously, not because of any rational logic. | ||
zarepath
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I don't have time to check the breadcrumbs, but think about this: There is no setup with a cop, a JKer, and a medic. Scum now know there's a medic, they MIGHT know there's a JKer if one of them was JK'd. But it would have been in their interest to claim it earlier, right? Just something worth thinking about. Meanwhile, I don't have time to check the breadcrumbs and will have to go on his word, and the fact that nobody has claimed JK or been JK'd that we know of, and assume Sno_Man is telling the truth here. ##Unvote: cDgCorazon ##Vote: Slayalot | ||
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On January 31 2013 09:40 glurio wrote: Sorry guys. I just can't bring myself to believe warbabys claim. I do think sn0 tells the truth though. He was always town in my mind. So i stick with my guts and my read on warbaby. I've thought through this. There's no way that mafia could claim medic and know there's no medic unless they were JK'd, and nobody has claimed JK, and nobody has claimed being JK'd. AND they would have had to role-check Sno-Man. | ||
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On January 15 2013 05:34 Stutters695 wrote: Actions/votes will be accepted up to the posted time, but not after. (00:59 GMT (+00:00) is fine but not 01:00 GMT (+00:00)). | ||
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How is glurio not the number one scum read at this point, assuming Sn0/Cora are town? Especially if you ARE Cora, you should assume that the other two people voting for the claimed medic and refusing to switch were scum-motivated. Especially considering that the medic already stole one kill from scum, then they can get a free cop at night... why wouldn't they ensure the medic kill? | ||
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On January 31 2013 14:44 cDgCorazon wrote: I'm pretty sure I've done more scumhunting than you have. You've been sitting on your butt for 100% of D1 and 98% of D2. I wasn't going to let Zare get away with blaming me for WB's death. That's why I made the rebuttal. When did I blame you for WB's death? You certainly have to take some blame for it, of course. But I don't see it as a scum tell because you're cop-confirmed. | ||
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On January 31 2013 14:05 cDgCorazon wrote: I'm sorry Zare, but this post of yours disturbs me. I'm referring to how Cora and Sn0 are "confirmed town" by Sn0's uncontested cop claim, but Glurio ISN'T. I am still not entirely certain about Sn0's cop claim, but if you assume its truth, then Glurio looks the scummiest. It's pretty straightforward. | ||
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On January 31 2013 14:05 cDgCorazon wrote: Basically, this case is all speculation and WIFOM. He believes that because I thought he was being a good town, I decided to kill him. He goes on to say that I cause Warbaby to think that Zarepath was a good town target. The first problem is here. If I am scum and secretly thought that Zarepath was a good town, I would not have said it out loud. He's basically saying that I was trying to attack the doctor to attack Zarepath, and then attack Zarepath. That is such a stupid strategy that there's no way it could have worked. He's assuming I'm bad scum, which is absolutely stupid. He goes on to say that I was trying to get everyone to lynch Warbaby. If that was so, why did I not vote for WB over Acid in the first place? It's just more speculation and confirmation bias. Others have addressed the oddity of your focus, but I will address your concerns. I did not believe that because you thought I was being good town, you decided to kill me. My case was that after FAILING to kill me, you went out of your way to soft town read me so that whoever saved me would not think you're scum. I wasn't saying that you were trying to attack the doctor to attack me; I was saying that scum would always want to attack the doctor to attack ANYONE. It's not about me; it's about what I think scum would do. If scum wanted everyone to mislynch a medic, it would be better for them to not be the first person to vote for them. Ideally, for scum, they bring up the idea and everyone else votes for it, and they manage to avoid all responsibility for the mislynch. This is how I read your interactions with warbaby -- riling him up, mocking him, but then claiming he's bad town but still not objecting strongly when others wanted to lynch him. I can understand how my points may have come off differently in the chaos of last night -- I was typing with my son on my lap and didn't really present much nuance or structure to my arguments. But I think you've misconceived my arguments and wanted to set it straight. | ||
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On February 01 2013 00:25 Sn0_Man wrote: Of these, 3 are confirmed town: Me, Cora, Zare (as awkward as that is). Good list, but bear with me for a second -- what awkwardness do you mean? | ||
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Glurio and Slay seem like the most obvious places to start. Cakepie voted for Slay, so if we vote for Slay and he flips scum, we've cleared cakepie. If we vote for Slay and he flips town, then Glurio looks more scummy for being the only unconfirmed town who voted for warbaby. I think lynching Slay is the best way to go at it. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
And his late post seems SUPER scummy. The thing is, I can totally see and understand a scum team realizing that if they don't do something, they're pretty much done for, and they ahve to take the 1-in-3 chance (closer to 1-in-2 because there was no evidence of a JK) to cop claim. It wasn't really meditated; Acid kind of just forced him into it (incidentally), and it was worth the risk. It's possible you should no-lynch tomorrow so you have the time to MAKE Sn0 either make two reads, or be lynched again by scum and still be in a good spot. | ||
zarepath
United States1626 Posts
Thanks for the craziness, have fun, and good luck! | ||
zarepath
United States1626 Posts
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
And Cora, sorry about the crappy WIFOM case. Honestly I think the main reason I continued to suspect you was because you switched your vote onto the medic claim. But even after all that, glurio and Slay should've looked WAY scummier to me. | ||
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