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On January 14 2013 02:42 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 02:39 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 02:36 Clarity_nl wrote:Nah toad you also coulda won (in this setup) with Mafia + lyncher + pgo (since pgo is lyncher target) Did you get my pm right before the game ended? Okay, I need you to read this and not react yet in the thread since I haven't thought it through.
I am the lyncher, my target is gonzaw. You can't get lynched this cycle and you can kill dandel, then no lynch again and you can kill iamp (jester) then we lynch gonzaw and we win together.
yeah I could have. But there's no way to figure out the lynchers target by hard facts. So that would have been an incredible betting game. Joining forces with the Jester was possible no matter what and as already said, a mathematically won game... No I didn't get that pm in time. Wouldn't have mattered though, because it was on gonzaw and Dandel to unvote the jester and not on you. Also I don't think I would have trusted you. Again no way to confirm your target and if I bring you into lylo you could just as well be lying and it's PGO + VT vs mafia whereas lylo with jester is a win for me and jester, so no reason for him to stab me in the back either. That's a fair point, but again my only chance at winning since the gonzaw lynch wasnt happening. Were you actually convinced that I wasn't the lyncher when I claimed in thread?
I actually thought you're the Shrink who shrinked himself because I'm pretty sure I've got a pm telling me that's possible, unlike the medic.
I just can't it.
So I really didn't think the shrink would target anyone besides himself.
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On January 14 2013 02:44 gonzaw wrote:
Toad when you pmed me did you know you could convert once at that point?
yes
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On January 14 2013 02:45 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 02:44 gonzaw wrote:
Toad when you pmed me did you know you could convert once at that point? yes
Again, the only thing I was trying to do this game was giving you guys information on what's happening because I knew I had this one as long as everyone does the right call.
And yeah I'm not blaiming anything on Clarity, it was the only way for him to win. Surely a 1% winchance is better than a 0% winchance.
It's just horrible that I lost because of this REALLY bad set-up that despite my best efforts town wasn't able to figure out peoples roles AND you pulling that stunt out of nowhere to get a chance at winning.
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On January 14 2013 02:46 Clarity_nl wrote:
So you thought dandel was the lyncher, with his target being iamp?
I thought dandel was the lyncher with his target being gonzaw.
I was like "SHITSHITSHIT I REALLY HIT THE FUCKING LYNCHERS TARGET" once shit was going to happen and realized I was wrong on my shrink-read on you.
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On January 14 2013 02:48 gonzaw wrote:
I tried going on with it tohe you to claim who the "medic" was or maybe contradict yourelf and be outted as jester
well as I just said...pretty much everything I told people in pm's about what I did at nights was true. And people kept telling me I'm a liar....
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On January 14 2013 02:52 gonzaw wrote:
Did you know i was pgo jiexian?
I told him d2, so yeah he did
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On January 14 2013 02:53 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 02:52 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 02:48 gonzaw wrote:
I tried going on with it tohe you to claim who the "medic" was or maybe contradict yourelf and be outted as jester well as I just said...pretty much everything I told people in pm's about what I did at nights was true. And people kept telling me I'm a liar.... You claimed antitown what did you expect?
I don't know? People realizing there isn't a need to play like a not-Yak for the Yak when the game is already over?
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On January 14 2013 02:54 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 02:53 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 02:52 gonzaw wrote:
Did you know i was pgo jiexian? I told him d2, so yeah he did So i wasnt.even playing at the time and evetbody knew my role. Cool
actually wait that's wrong. I told him the first half-cycle after you replaced in. So that makes it n2?
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On January 14 2013 02:57 gonzaw wrote:
So what are he chances for town to win this game?
I got really lucky n1 that I figured out everyone's role (besides screwing up lyncher <-> shrink). Without that it's fairly decent.
You've got a 1 in 3 chance to lynch into jester / lynchers target if you lynch d1 (assuming it'l work and as we just saw it does when people don't know what's going on...).
I've got a 1 in 5 chance to hit the PGO at night which makes town win.
I've got a 1 in 5 chance to convert the shrinked guy which is PRETTY much gg unless mafia has perfect knowledge of roles.
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On January 14 2013 03:02 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:00 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 02:57 gonzaw wrote:
So what are he chances for town to win this game? I got really lucky n1 that I figured out everyone's role (besides screwing up lyncher <-> shrink). Without that it's fairly decent. You've got a 1 in 3 chance to lynch into jester / lynchers target if you lynch d1 (assuming it'l work and as we just saw it does when people don't know what's going on...). I've got a 1 in 5 chance to hit the PGO at night which makes town win. I've got a 1 in 5 chance to convert the shrinked guy which is PRETTY much gg unless mafia has perfect knowledge of roles. The thing is you're not forced to nk, are you? So you can take infinite time to figure it all out. Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:01 Dandel Ion wrote:On January 14 2013 03:00 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 02:59 Dandel Ion wrote:On January 14 2013 02:57 gonzaw wrote:
So what are he chances for town to win this game? Not bad, I'd think. yak dies pretty easily. If I knew who was the shrink I could have betrayed toad but I had no idea great job dandel =( If you read the OP, you could also have  Play nice!
same goes for you. I have infinite time to figure out people by pm'ing them, you can do the EXACT same thing as town.
I figured out people by taking the risk to shoot n1 because I thought I have to with everyone calling me a liar and the general unwillingness to talk with me in pms...
Wether I take the risk and shoot / convert into town or you take the risk and lynch doesn't change that much.
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I actually pm'ed palmar and told him to force the NL in time because there's no way for anyone to be lynched with 5 people alive and
2 of them voting the mafia
1 of them voting the jester
1 of them voting the lynchers target
1 of them voting NL
...
almost got as cocky as to tell him to endgame the game if I managed to not shoot the lynchers target :p
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On January 14 2013 03:07 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:04 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:02 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:00 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 02:57 gonzaw wrote:
So what are he chances for town to win this game? I got really lucky n1 that I figured out everyone's role (besides screwing up lyncher <-> shrink). Without that it's fairly decent. You've got a 1 in 3 chance to lynch into jester / lynchers target if you lynch d1 (assuming it'l work and as we just saw it does when people don't know what's going on...). I've got a 1 in 5 chance to hit the PGO at night which makes town win. I've got a 1 in 5 chance to convert the shrinked guy which is PRETTY much gg unless mafia has perfect knowledge of roles. The thing is you're not forced to nk, are you? So you can take infinite time to figure it all out. On January 14 2013 03:01 Dandel Ion wrote:On January 14 2013 03:00 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 02:59 Dandel Ion wrote:On January 14 2013 02:57 gonzaw wrote:
So what are he chances for town to win this game? Not bad, I'd think. yak dies pretty easily. If I knew who was the shrink I could have betrayed toad but I had no idea great job dandel =( If you read the OP, you could also have Play nice! same goes for you. I have infinite time to figure out people by pm'ing them, you can do the EXACT same thing as town. I figured out people by taking the risk to shoot n1 because I thought I have to with everyone calling me a liar and the general unwillingness to talk with me in pms... Wether I take the risk and shoot / convert into town or you take the risk and lynch doesn't change that much. No, there is no risk to lynch. We literally cannot lynch scum with 6 people. Maybe everyone figures everything out, including you, but you are the only one who knows what your night actions are. With infinite amount of time you will eventually make the right choice. Yeah it's a bit theoretical but at the very least there can be no lynch on day 1 if everyone plays proper.
You literally could not have lynched Jester or mafia this cycle either, yet it happened.
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On January 14 2013 03:10 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:09 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:07 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:04 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:02 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:00 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 02:57 gonzaw wrote:
So what are he chances for town to win this game? I got really lucky n1 that I figured out everyone's role (besides screwing up lyncher <-> shrink). Without that it's fairly decent. You've got a 1 in 3 chance to lynch into jester / lynchers target if you lynch d1 (assuming it'l work and as we just saw it does when people don't know what's going on...). I've got a 1 in 5 chance to hit the PGO at night which makes town win. I've got a 1 in 5 chance to convert the shrinked guy which is PRETTY much gg unless mafia has perfect knowledge of roles. The thing is you're not forced to nk, are you? So you can take infinite time to figure it all out. On January 14 2013 03:01 Dandel Ion wrote:On January 14 2013 03:00 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 02:59 Dandel Ion wrote:On January 14 2013 02:57 gonzaw wrote:
So what are he chances for town to win this game? Not bad, I'd think. yak dies pretty easily. If I knew who was the shrink I could have betrayed toad but I had no idea great job dandel =( If you read the OP, you could also have Play nice! same goes for you. I have infinite time to figure out people by pm'ing them, you can do the EXACT same thing as town. I figured out people by taking the risk to shoot n1 because I thought I have to with everyone calling me a liar and the general unwillingness to talk with me in pms... Wether I take the risk and shoot / convert into town or you take the risk and lynch doesn't change that much. No, there is no risk to lynch. We literally cannot lynch scum with 6 people. Maybe everyone figures everything out, including you, but you are the only one who knows what your night actions are. With infinite amount of time you will eventually make the right choice. Yeah it's a bit theoretical but at the very least there can be no lynch on day 1 if everyone plays proper. You literally could not have lynched Jester or mafia this cycle either, yet it happened. No, there is a distinct difference. Especially since I claimed to have turned into a vt. Town needs a majority or they cannot lynch scum, if they cannot lynch scum they should no lynch and BECAUSE TOWN HAS HALF THE VOTES, THERE CANNOT BE A LYNCH.
the difference is that town thought you're a townie and thought it's possible to lynch mafia this cycle, which was not true?
Same could happen with the lyncher thinking someone is town REALLY strongly d1 and therefore giving into lynching the mafia.
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it's instant majority, anything can happen with different timezones
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On January 14 2013 03:16 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:14 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:10 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:09 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:07 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:04 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:02 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:00 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 02:57 gonzaw wrote:
So what are he chances for town to win this game? I got really lucky n1 that I figured out everyone's role (besides screwing up lyncher <-> shrink). Without that it's fairly decent. You've got a 1 in 3 chance to lynch into jester / lynchers target if you lynch d1 (assuming it'l work and as we just saw it does when people don't know what's going on...). I've got a 1 in 5 chance to hit the PGO at night which makes town win. I've got a 1 in 5 chance to convert the shrinked guy which is PRETTY much gg unless mafia has perfect knowledge of roles. The thing is you're not forced to nk, are you? So you can take infinite time to figure it all out. On January 14 2013 03:01 Dandel Ion wrote:On January 14 2013 03:00 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 02:59 Dandel Ion wrote:
[quote]
Not bad, I'd think.
yak dies pretty easily. If I knew who was the shrink I could have betrayed toad but I had no idea great job dandel =( If you read the OP, you could also have Play nice! same goes for you. I have infinite time to figure out people by pm'ing them, you can do the EXACT same thing as town. I figured out people by taking the risk to shoot n1 because I thought I have to with everyone calling me a liar and the general unwillingness to talk with me in pms... Wether I take the risk and shoot / convert into town or you take the risk and lynch doesn't change that much. No, there is no risk to lynch. We literally cannot lynch scum with 6 people. Maybe everyone figures everything out, including you, but you are the only one who knows what your night actions are. With infinite amount of time you will eventually make the right choice. Yeah it's a bit theoretical but at the very least there can be no lynch on day 1 if everyone plays proper. You literally could not have lynched Jester or mafia this cycle either, yet it happened. No, there is a distinct difference. Especially since I claimed to have turned into a vt. Town needs a majority or they cannot lynch scum, if they cannot lynch scum they should no lynch and BECAUSE TOWN HAS HALF THE VOTES, THERE CANNOT BE A LYNCH. the difference is that town thought you're a townie and thought it's possible to lynch mafia this cycle, which was not true? Same could happen with the lyncher thinking someone is town REALLY strongly d1 and therefore giving into lynching the mafia. Why would a lyncher lynch town that is not his target? It just makes it harder for the lyncher to lynch his target down the road. Even if the lyncher wanted this somehow, why would any townie vote for anyone KNOWING that they cant lynch scum.
that's how you're supposed to figure out people's alignments. You can't just NL and do nothing as town because as you said, mafia has a slight advantage on figuring out people and just needs to figure out either the shrink or the medic to win this, which will happen eventually.
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On January 14 2013 03:20 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:19 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:17 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:11 Clarity_nl wrote:
There is nothing anyone can say or do to make a lynch happen day 1 unless people are mentally ill.
My claim this cycle however was believable which made the townies think they could lynch scum, unfortunately they went for iamp but wcyd If they had went for toad you'd have lost right? Then why did you claim Because if we had a no-lynch then I die either straight away, or a cycle later. This was the ONLY point where town had a majority (if I were telling the truth), unless toad somehow kills iamp, in which case I still would have lost had they lynched toad. edited my post above. I think you claiming and making town feel like lynching some will make you lose either way. The only candidates are toad and iamp
well he was 100% certain he can't win by doing nothing. It's like claiming SK as SK. It's utterly retarded but a 1% chance to win by town screwing up big time is better than sitting ducks on your 0% winchace.
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On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel
a 4th townie makes it impossible for mafia to win.
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On January 14 2013 03:23 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:22 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel a 4th townie makes it impossible for mafia to win. Why
because you already have a 25/50 % chance to insta-lose as mafia if you try to kill people and you even have to kill one more guy that way.
It might work if you take out the shrink or the PGO and add 2 VTs instead, idk.
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On January 14 2013 03:25 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed?
well he saw mafia was going to win because you died, he knew he was the lyncher (= not a VT) => no way to lynch the mafia
=> mafia will shoot one more guy next night. That could be him, that could be anyone else, either way it's a mafia win from his point of view and he tried to win with town, which just wasn't going to happen anymore 
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On January 14 2013 03:28 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:27 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:25 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed? well he saw mafia was going to win because you died, he knew he was the lyncher (= not a VT) => no way to lynch the mafia => mafia will shoot one more guy next night. That could be him, that could be anyone else, either way it's a mafia win from his point of view so that's why you were so damn pissed at him :D I get it now
change it to "either way it's a mafia win from his point of vie2 unless he wins right now himself".
I mean, I get what clarity did and he only had 2 options left to win. Sadly for me, he chose this one....
Had he just pm'ed me earlier about him being the lyncher he would have had a 50% chance to win because I win with either jester or lyncher and had to make one of those 2 lose. But that's still a 50% chance to win for him, hoping I'd pick him or hoping I wasn't in contact with the jester instead of his 1% chance to lynch gonzaw
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EPT
