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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
On January 05 2013 10:11 OmniEulogy wrote: result wouldn't have changed. same guy would be lynched regardless. Not necessarily, Cora and I might have changed if there was time given for that case to be properly analysed. | ||
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Sylencia
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Because he stated it himself. | ||
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On January 05 2013 10:19 OmniEulogy wrote: he stated mocsta didn't give me enough time to defend myself. thats far from what you are implying. And depending on your defense, Cora might have switched if it was posted earlier. I do not see this to be any different to what I said, seeing as how I didn't say Cora and I would definitely change votes. In any case, why are we arguing over this? This is not what we should be concentrating on. | ||
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Sylencia
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If I voted Strix, same result. If I voted OE, same result. If I had voted OE, there would be a very low chance of any votes shifting as well. Why? Most people already stated why they voted for one or the other. If Strix was scum, there would be wagoning over to the other side, but he was not, so the result would have ended up the same in either case. I stated the reason why I stayed on jampi, but did not elaborate on it very much. Using the one instance where he gave town reads out (and said that he shouldn't have) as a case where he has spontaneously contributed is not a strong defense. It does not provide anything when the reads are also very weak. If it was something more concrete, then I would take the statement more seriously, but it wasn't. Also On January 05 2013 03:08 jampidampi wrote: My case on StriX may be "weak" but nothing to me suggest that a better case can made for now. If he has such a weak case, why couldn't he have strengthened it any more by asking more questions, as he said he would in his first few posts. Instead, all that we get are answers to questions and accusations. It's not exactly good enough to say you have little to no information to go off, and leave it be and vote. It's slack, and it's scummy because it shows you don't care about the consequences of tunneling a player. As for Temil, I have no idea what he is doing or saying, but my prediction remains at a dartboard randomised vote. This is an issue we need to consider for Day 2, because I do not want to be in the situation where we could have 1 pretty scummy guy + 1 not as scummy guy sitting on 3-3. | ||
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Sylencia
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On January 05 2013 10:50 Spaghetticus wrote: @Zare Good post. I do have solid reasoning for my switches, but would prefer not to post them now if people can figure them out themselves. I invite the scrutiny (it's inevitable). I like the direction of this analysis. I want Syl pushed, and am very happy with this information as a foundation. I will most likely post an explanation of my behaviour later, but this should not stop you analysing my motives now. Your switch doesn't seem particularly scummy to me, but I have reason for bias in that I believe I changed for similar reasons. I do not like this as a platform for analysis on TeMiL. He spouts nonsense and is in my eyes an empty slot. Nothing he has said has been influential, and thus if he is scum he is entirely ineffective at promoting his agenda. This does make me feel a little cross saying this, as I'd have liked him mod-killed, but if TeMiL is scum you won't catch him by analysing his posts, and by ignoring him you would be creating a town environment of 6/1, which is town favoured. If he is town then you are wasting your time on him, and the current numbers would be 5/2 regardless. My understanding gives no explanation of how I intend on actually catching him if he is scum, I guess I'm hoping that over time, we will have more information to work with. If anyone wants to attack TeMiL, then I would request that they first address my reasoning above. My conclusion is that regardless of his alignment, there is currently no point in pursuing a case against TeMiL. If Temil is scum, there is another teammate to worry about. All that needs to happen is that Temil listens to them, and bandwagon to the appropriate vote. It is not 6/1 as you say it is, it would still be 6/2. You have to remember that while he has no influence in our discussions, he still holds a vote. If he is scum, that is a potentially powerful vote. If Temil is town, no one is guiding him. He will not be voting in a very rational manner, he will not be reading our posts and cases, instead making his own (as you can see from his posts, he has made a few random accusations at you and Jampi) and voting off that. This is NOT the situation we want to be in, because if we reach a stalemate during the next vote, we would have to see how Temil votes. Assuming we have 2 scum and a townie on one person, and townies voting on town, we would be leaving it up to a 50/50 chance he understands the situation, and votes the right one. Not the best odds. Taking it further if he is town: He probably won't be killed because he is a liability to town. You're now in a 3-2 situation. Do you want to have Temil be the decider of the game? | ||
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Sylencia
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Sylencia
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Firstly, we have Strix's unvote, which comes after his defense of jampi, and saying that his vote on Temil was based on a pressure play. To the majority of the group, it looked like a scummy move because he was trying to possibly rectify his mistake, but I think he felt pressured to take it off so that is what he did. Jampi says his vote will not change because of his read on Strix, this is due to the lack of town motive behind it. When I asked jampi about this first though, I was under the impression that this post didn't make for a case against him because it didn't actually say he was scum, and could actually be town motivated. Mocsta makes a big case against having Temil around. A lot of it is quite logical, but having it done day 1 over someone else seemed to me like a non-standard choice, since it wasn't so much scum hunting as kicking someone from the game. Doing an analysis on posting this now, given we know what happened afterwards also makes me wonder why it needed to be brought up in the first place. Having suspected OE (as stated in the future post) before going to bed, why was he encouraging us to vote for someone then try to get us all to change later? (I have a feeling I know the answer to this, but if Mocsta, you would like to elaborate that would be great) Next page (Pg. 18) Starts off with the conclusion of what would be the Temil-country theory. Interestingly enough, Spag decides to move against what he had said before of "I will vote for the lurkiest player", to one of the other two lurkers. The reason for possibly changing to Strix is given, but at that point in time, the reasoning for moving away from Temil was not (convoluted, possibly). Jampi makes a post after Mocsta has left, explaining the reasoning behind his low quantity of posts. This is mostly done in response to Spag's potential vote change. Page 19 Spag's reasoning for not voting for Temil are given here, but despite the negativity given in the post, to me this confuses me as to why he might not be voted for. At this point in time, Corazon deters more people from voting Temil by saying they would be lazy in doing so. This is what I think lead to the slow beginning into shifting forces onto Strix. With people who did not vote Temil yet being pre-emptively called out for it, they would have to find another avenue to go down. At this point it was likely to be one of the other two lurkers - jampi and Strix. Strix was a lot easier target simply because there was possible scum motivation behind his words and lack of contribution. Interesting thing to note is the Unvote happening from Omni at this point in time. With tides turning towards others in the votes, the only explanation given is that he felt Zare had contributed more. This is while still being 3-4 pages behind in the posts, which is weird - because he didn't know what was next. It was a very random unvote in my eyes. Page 20. Despite saying he wants to see Strix hang around till Day 2, and that everyone except Zare should not be voted, it is decided that Strix would be voted for due to his lack of insightful posts which I guess I am partly to blame for for making people expect it (since that was the description I gave for his usual play) However, it is odd that there is a backtrack in the statements so quickly. His explanation on his vote for Strix then says he is OE's top scum read. If Strix was your top scum read, why did you say you wanted to leave him till day 2? I'm not sure what I am to make of this change of heart and decision to vote Strix. Going back to the point I made earlier about Corazon's post, I feel this might have come into play regarding the decision to vote for him. Since I don't think he was ready to make a case against one of the more active players, I think in the case the 'don't vote temil if you're not lazy' post was not made, Temil would've been the target of OE's vote. Zare targets temil for his first vote, for a few reasons given by Mocsta, and the idea of having temil replaced not being a good idea is fair enough. Page 21. I think when Strix posts at the start of the day, he ends up burying himself further, since he admits he won't be contributing anything in terms of long analysis for the rest of the day (with 2 hours left) and what looked to be a deflection onto OE. At the point Dandel Ion makes the 1 hour remaining vote count, I think all the foundations that were setup for Strix to make the fall were made. He had people already suspecting him, he did not improve his case the next day and there was already a hint from Mocsta stating he would be moving his votes. The post after this would be the be start of the vote shift which eventually lead to Strix's mislynch. With the Temil train quickly derailing, Mocsta's post served as a catalyst for those on board it to quickly move to another target. He made a post about OE, and changed his vote to him, and we then had Zare quietly follow up with a second vote quickly. Spag, being the only one left of Temil, decided it would be better to move onto Strix, as he had said the previous night. Corazon, being the fourth vote on Strix, decided on it due to the case made by OE. With another convinced, and what I now realise to be a lack of defense made by Strix, he was set to be lynched. I choose not to change my vote, which may have had an impact on who got eliminated due to Temil's vote coming out of nowhere. Why I did not change is answered at the end, since I think I saw it was a question I was asked. -- Overall, there were a few reasons why I think that this lynch happened: - People were deterred from voting for Temil after Corazon's explicit message saying that people were lazy to vote for Temil. - Omni's choice of lynch was technically the 3rd to do so, and it was noted by Strix himself that it was quite a bandwagoning, due to the weird set of statements he had made just before voting for Strix. - Strix did not defend himself from the second case against (OE's case against him) and it did not help his cause whatsoever. His actions during the last few hours were also quite suspicious when read, and that may have been the tipping point for the fourth vote from Corazon. Unfortunately for me, this analysis I made turned out a lot poorer than I expected, maybe due to the time of night I ended up starting this, maybe I didn't have as much to say as I thought I did, but I tried doing it the way. On January 05 2013 19:14 Mocsta wrote: I am bringing this back to attention. Sylencia since you are here, what are your thoughts on the feedback zarepath has issued? I can only speak for myself obviously, but at the time I was not completely satisfied with the response given by jampi regarding what I had asked him. I have explained it further in a past post. My thoughts on OE were at the time not exactly very well set in stone. I had not completely read through the post that Mocsta had written, and I wasn't going to bandwagon onto it just because others were. My read on Strix was still fairly null before the last hours of day 1, maybe partly due to some bias of my knowledge of how he behaves in real life, and how he plays these games in real life, I didn't see anything that deviated from what he normally did anyways when he played either side. So the decision I was made to make was a fairly null read vs. a sudden case against someone who I had not looked deeply into with about half an hour or so to choose. Thus, voting for either of them would be a pretty stupid decision I think and so I chose to stick with the person I had suspected from the night before and stuck with it. | ||
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Sylencia
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On January 06 2013 09:22 Mocsta wrote: Excuse me... @Sylencia, I hope you have commented on this, (still reading through the thread).. as you did with zarepath. I don't understand what you're saying I should be saying about this. Honestly, I don't understand how keeping a vote on Temil leads to a no-lynch read, since that was never going to be happening? If it's regarding why I kept my own vote, I had already explained that, and if you think further than that situation, if I did switch my vote, I would only be leaving myself up to scum manipulation if I am questioned about vote switching and the only answer I can truly give is "No, I don't necessarily think he is scummy, but I was just bandwagoning because I didn't want to be the only one voting jampi." | ||
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Sylencia
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On January 06 2013 13:18 Mocsta wrote: Maybe I got confused.. i thought you called out zarepath for wanting to no-lynch.. perhaps it was Omni. if so, the question then applies to Omni. I only gave the reasons why no lynch was bad to him. When I voted for him, it was a slight influence, as well as what I had also written, but as I just said before, I don't understand how not changing from Temil suggests no lynch. | ||
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Sylencia
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On January 06 2013 16:14 Spaghetticus wrote: Wow there has barely been any discussion at all... Mocsta I am confused as to what is happening in your dialogue with Sylencia, so I'll butt out and let this run it's course. When you want an explanation just holla. I hope the rest of you are reading the thread or sleeping, because this much activity after an NK is sort of unacceptable. We have a lot of information to sift through (more than ever before!), why would everyone be inactive? Alright, can I ask you for the explanation behind that statement? I said it twice before, but I don't understand how you got to the conclusion that if you didn't change your vote from Temil, it would mean your intention was a no lynch. With regards to the roleblocking move, perhaps someone read this post and acted on it? On January 05 2013 14:25 Spaghetticus wrote: We have a 50% chance of there actually being a JK, then that JK has to correctly identify the scum that will carry out the NK without being roleblocked. This was what came to my mind when Omni claimed the roleblock. If we look at it being there being a Jailkeeper who wasn't sure what to do, they would most likely find this piece of advice and use it. What this means is that if it's a Town JK, they are one who suspects OE as scum. If it was a scum RB, it was either to block a blue move, or an attempt to clear his name via roleblock. (Possible for him to be roleblocked by the other mafia member, and then claim it - both actions killing and roleblocking performed by the same person.) I'm not sure if they would risk that kind of move though, because if there is a scum RB, there would've been a 50% chance for there to be a JK+Cop too, so a day 1 move like that would be quite unlikely. | ||
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On January 06 2013 22:48 jampidampi wrote: By the third setup do you mean the one with only a jailkeeper? And I'm not sure if I understand the meaning behind your 2nd sentence, do you mean a cop is likely to check on him? But there is no cop in the 3rd setup... Sorry, second setup with the Cop only. | ||
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Sylencia
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On January 06 2013 22:48 Spaghetticus wrote: Ew did I actually write that? I probably thought at that point that a JK was only the town version of a roleblocker. That would explain a lot though. Okay so it doesn't seem like Mocsta was making the play I thought. I'll reveal. If you have your vote on someone and that person has no chance of being lynched, your vote is not actually doing anything. Functionally, it is the same as voting for a no-lynch, as everyone else will go an lynch someone without your input. When you stayed on jamp, there was no way he was getting lynched, and so not changing you denied us your input on who got lynched. This means we cannot blame you for a mislynch, it's complete disassociation from the actual lynch. Now that I think on it, that means if you flip scum you were probably happy with an Omni or StriX lynch, which would increase the town read on Omni. It does not mean that you are actually wanting a no-lynch. A no-lynch will hardly ever get off the ground in a newbie game. When I described your vote as the equivalent of a no-lynch, I probably should have said it was the equivalent of a no-vote. Right, but then as I've said previously how am I supposed to honestly reply to a question such as "What was the reasoning behind voting Strix?" without sounding like I've just jumped onto the wagon without him having a scum image in mind? That was why I didn't change my vote in the previous day, and I think if I did it would've caused more problems during today because there would be a high chance that I would be killed off for changing my vote on someone I didn't have any reasoning behind. @Spag Was my train of thought wrong, and should I have switched my vote despite my internal thoughts on the situation? If I had done it, would you have reacted the way I thought everyone would regarding a random switch in vote? If you disagree with my thoughts, I want to hear what you would have done/suggest. | ||
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Sylencia
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On January 06 2013 22:53 jampidampi wrote: So what you are saying that in the event he is lying, a cop will check on him? If that is so then I understand. Yes because without the Roleblocker on the scum team (only 1 RB got claimed), the Cop and JK do not co-exist. | ||
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The time given to read and make a rational decision based on that post was very small. I had just woken up and when I saw that post, and I only got to skim read it because I was going through it so slowly. Since the finer points of the argument weren't read properly, I was not going to vote for him. If others want to make a comment about this, I'll be happy to answer, but if not, I think there are other things we can concentrate on. @Mocsta: You were annoyed that most of us were not on during the evening of tonight, and you placed a vote on Jampi. Was there a reason behind it, and is there a reason you did not choose to pursue OE with a vote on him instead? My guess is that the roleblock claim had something to do with it, but since there's a lack of discussion going on, I want to know where this vote is coming from. | ||
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Sylencia
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Our discussion has gotten nowhere today, and at this rate, we have potentially 2 kills going down if Temil doesn't come. The worst thing would be if two townies just died at this point because that would actually just end the game right there. (Unless Temil gets replaced assuming he does not vote) If we are to prevent this, then we can actually cut our losses and vote for Temil, losing only 1 person who was already a detriment to town as it was. | ||
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Sylencia
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Assuming no replacement, and he does not vote: Temil Town, Mislynch: 2-2 after night action, we lose. Temil Town, Scum lynch: 3-1 after night action, MYLO. Temil Scum, Mislynch: 3-1 after night action, MYLO. Temil Scum, Scum lynch: We win (probably wishful thinking at this point) If we lynch Temil: Town: 3-2, MYLO Scum: 4-1 You say that the MYLO situation makes us lose automatically, but playing the odds we have 75% chance to lose if we don't lynch him and 50% chance to lose if we do. All of this is assuming he does not vote, so things change if he does. | ||
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