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Paranoia Mafia - Page 86

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Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
December 06 2012 00:02 GMT
#1701
so wait austin explain again why you didn't vote/lynch sandro d2? it was because WBG case was so good?
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 06 2012 00:14 GMT
#1702
On December 06 2012 08:43 austinmcc wrote:
Although you being scum makes the interactions between you/ShiaoPi and sandroba/ShiaoPi all the weirder. Are you BOTH bussing him? I guess then you bus him, use that post to say it implicates me, then get me lynched while trying to get a little cred for lynching ShiaoPi?

Curious. All I know for sure right now, is that Sandroba is scum. If you think I'm so scummy, why is Sandroba townie? I notice in that post you say "you're leaning town" on Sandroba, but you don't give any further reasoning. See posts like these:

D1 - Xatalos thinks Dandel Ion is scummy
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 01:14 Xatalos wrote:
What I'm most concerned about are these players: VisceraEyes, DoYouHas, Dandel Ion. They all have been pretty passive background characters who are not lurking/trolling/playing bad, but not really doing anything either. I think there's a high chance for 1-2 of them being Mafia.

[Stuff on VE]

Dandel Ion hasn't put any real effort into his posts yet. He's just made some fluff one-liners and semi-useful "advice" like these:

On November 30 2012 23:10 Dandel Ion wrote:
I mean, I agree that Lazermonkey is being overeager with calling you out like that, but Xatalos already answered you. What information do you expect to gain by asking the same thing again?


On December 01 2012 14:53 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's a themed game. Please tell me you're not gonna start a setup speculation.

Just quickly skimmed the thread, do ya still want me to explain how, when and how well I read guides, or did you realize that it was a silly question in the first place yet?


Dandel Ion doesn't just seem to care about Mafia hunting, even though he has posted a decent amount and with semi-useful content as well. I'd need to see some real improvement in his posting to make my suspicions fade. Sharing some reads or anything beneficial to finding Mafia would be a good start.

Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 02:55 Xatalos wrote:
On December 02 2012 01:25 ShiaoPi wrote:
So who do you want to lynch Xata? Which of the three is scummiest to you?


VisceraEyes at the moment. DoYouHas and Dandel Ion haven't made any actual effort to contribute, but they haven't done anything outright scummy either. I'm most suspicious of VE's opportunistic vote for debears and his lack of interest to do pretty much anything useful after that.
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 05:01 Xatalos wrote:
If any of VE/DYH/Dandel can't be lynched tonight, at least it's a perfect opportunity to make some pressure. I'll change my target from VE if needed before the deadline.

3 posts, VE and Dandel Ion so scummy. Let's lynch em. Let's lynch em.

N1/D2 - Dandel Ion now Sandroba, Sandroba suddenly townie for no real reason
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 19:54 Xatalos wrote:
Of my other original suspects VE was obviously Mafia and DYH is now confirmed town, and Dandel Ion was replaced by sandroba (who feels townish so far) so I'm not willing to lynch other players at this moment.

Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 22:16 Xatalos wrote:
On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote:
Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved.
##Vote: ShiaoPi


Hmm. Alright, I can agree with lynching ShiaoPi today. It also helps that I have a town read on both you and WBG. And ShiaoPi hasn't been lurking quite as heavily as Zealos, but he hasn't done anything either.

##Unvote
##Vote ShiaoPi


Although I'm wondering where Zealos has disappeared. And Lazermonkey. What we need now is more posts by several players who haven't done anything for a while (or even all game).
Show nested quote +
On December 04 2012 04:36 Xatalos wrote:
I'm willing to give Dandel/Sandroba a pass though, since Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been very helpful with his posts.
Show nested quote +
On December 06 2012 06:16 Xatalos wrote:
Realistically DYH, Keirathi, BH and MrZentor are out of the picture. I'm also leaning town on debears, sandroba, austinmcc and Lazermonkey.




Would you care to explain why Sandroba is townie?
Would you care to explain why DI was one of your top scum suspects D1, but D2 it's "Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been helpful with his posts" so they get a pass? It's curious to me that one of your top 3 scumreads became a guy you think is townie but you never actually said why.


The main suspicious point about Dandel Ion was his clear lack of care for achieving anything. He posted little and didn't interact, scumhunt, analyze... It could have been just disinterested town as well though. But Sandroba has been transparent and his posts have been filled with real content. He's not my top town read, given his relative inactivity, but I'm not liking him as scum.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 06 2012 00:21 GMT
#1703
On December 06 2012 09:02 Blazinghand wrote:
so wait austin explain again why you didn't vote/lynch sandro d2? it was because WBG case was so good?

In part, it's kind of...circular if you look back at it.

I knew Sandroba was mafia. If another good target didn't appear early, could always push Sandroba.

From pretty early on, ShiaoPi was a candidate. Sandroba was voting ShiaoPi, made a small case on ShiaoPi, wanted ShiaoPi dead. In my mind, I'd gone into D2 thinking ShiaoPi was potentially mafia, but wasn't sure. Sandroba being on him scared me away from that.

Not only was I slightly worried about WBG, but I still feel like Sandroba defended him in a bit of an odd manner, called him town in an odd manner.

Because I knew Sandroba was mafia, I saw the case on ShiaoPi as weaker, and the case on WBG as stronger. Had extra information you didn't have from just looking at the cases. Couldn't be sure Sandroba wasn't bussing, or wasn't looking at two townies, but just didn't like his comments on WBG enough that I was okay with the idea that they were scumbuddies.

Long as I think they're scumbuddies, I'm fine lynching WBG and not Sandroba. Claim right before night tonight, try and get another check off, either catch someone or no, and have a scumlynch D3.

When the mason claims came out, I again have outside knowledge. Some people don't think there could be DT + vigi + 4 masons. I know that we have at least dt + watcher + some masons, and a claimed vigi. So that's another reason I'm extra insistent that we don't have 4 masons. If you thought the setup was too blue-heavy with so many masons, it's more blue heavy if you knew I was a watcher.
Fe fi fo fum.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 06 2012 00:24 GMT
#1704
On December 06 2012 08:46 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 06 2012 08:38 Xatalos wrote:
On December 06 2012 08:34 austinmcc wrote:
Xatalos I have a sneaking suspicion you might be scum too

Yes, I could be mean old nasty scum, just trying to get you to lynch Sandroba in order to buy time for me to NK townies. MWAHAHAHAHA.

Of course, you could be mean old nasty scum, just trying to get people to lynch me in order to buy time for you to NK townies. MWAHAHAHAHA.

I don't know about anyone else, and I only called it peculiar at the time, but this post felt INCREDIBLY constructed and worked-on, compared to a lot of the thread. It yelled I'M A SCUM POST. I'M A SCUM POST. to me when I first read it. + Show Spoiler +
On December 06 2012 06:16 Xatalos wrote:
I'm starting to believe more and more that all of the claims so far have been real. There are some strong points to be made for all of them:

1) If DYH was SK, it would be an almost impossible stroke of luck that he claimed Vigi at such a time when it couldn't have realistically saved him anymore - although it managed to somehow save him anyway. And even if he still somehow was SK, it's a fact that there are still Mafia alive, so it's beyond stupid IMO to lynch a nearly confirmed Vigi while letting Mafia freely continue killing.
2) Keirathi was WBG's Mason partner, and unless this is some really cruel joke of a setup by the host, Keirathi must be town. Granted, it's "paranoia" Mafia, but lynching a confirmed Mason would be too stupid (realistically just doing Mafia's work for them).
3) BH/MrZentor would have been extremely stupid to fakeclaim just to ensure one mislynch at the cost of certainly losing the game eventually. Think about it: we now know that they are both town or both Mafia. If one of them would flip Mafia (lynch/SK kill/whatever), it would be GG right there and then. It's an extremely disadvantegeous position to put yourself into without any real gain. It's also most likely that one of them will be nightkilled before LYLO, which would confirm the other. It would make absolutely zero sense to lynch either of them.

That means we have pretty much half the players as confirmed town, which is a great spot. I'm worried about what roles Mafia might have, though (or if they might have 4 players) considering the strong roles town has. But now it's basically just a process of elimination to figure out the remaining Mafia.

Realistically DYH, Keirathi, BH and MrZentor are out of the picture. I'm also leaning town on debears, sandroba, austinmcc and Lazermonkey. That just leaves... ShiaoPi. What?? There's just no way there would be only 2 Mafia in a setup this stacked with blue roles. I feel like our only sensible option is to lynch ShiaoPi tomorrow, and in hindsight I feel it might have been better to lynch him today instead of WBG. Although WBG's flip at least (practically) confirmed Keirathi and the reality of this setup having tons of blues, so it's not too bad.

I started suspecting this earlier and it's still on the back of my mind, although it ONLY makes sense if ShiaoPi is indeed Mafia. I mean austinmcc's weird behavior towards ShiaoPi. Let me show you some posts of his:

Show nested quote +
On December 04 2012 23:50 austinmcc wrote:
On December 04 2012 22:51 Xatalos wrote:
Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon.

On December 04 2012 22:56 ShiaoPi wrote:
On December 04 2012 22:51 Xatalos wrote:
On December 04 2012 22:38 Keirathi wrote:
On December 04 2012 22:34 Xatalos wrote:
On the other hand, if ShiaoPi happened to flip town, it would mean some of my reads were seriously wrong. I think I'll have to reread several filters with the mindset that ShiaoPi would actually be town. I'm not seeing it right now, but it's a possibility after all.

Don't worry, he's not going to flip town.

I've played with town ShiaoPi and scum ShiaoPi. This ShiaoPi is the latter.


Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon.


That game was a long time ago and I was also in a different timezone, much more fitting for playing with EU/NA. Just saying you should not take that game as a basis for meta, go for more recent games such as Liquid City or LVI and LVII

Xatalos, I would suggest looking at... LVII at least.

I remember having the same feeling about ShiaoPi there that I did D1 here. He turned out to be town.

It doesn't make him town here, but ... I've seen town ShiaoPi be relatively uninvested early compared to his play in that newbie game.


It somehow looks like austinmcc is reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi. He rarely even mentions ShiaoPi, let alone asks him anything or interacts with him. When he does mention ShiaoPi, it's like this post (soft defending him without really committing to anything). In my mind it's way more scummy to make vague defenses for Mafia players than to directly defend them or to at least openly analyze them (granted, we don't know ShiaoPi's flip at this point).

Show nested quote +
On December 06 2012 04:28 austinmcc wrote:
On December 06 2012 02:06 ShiaoPi wrote:
Okay I must admit that I came back to the thread this late, because I fully expected to be lynched by all of your for stupid reasons. Well first off I am pleasantly surprised to be still alive, secondly how the heck was bugs town?!?!?! and finally WTF!!!! is this setup, 4 claimed mason, a dt and a vig. Dunno it is a lot to comprehend at once and I am way too tired to do some critical thinking now. I will look into the whole mason mess more closely tomorrow.

Can't figure out what to make of ShiaoPi.

If he were scum, then scum was under pressure yesterday to get votes on WBG and we can maybe get something out of that.

If he's not scum...come on man. We need more analysis from you regardless, but also you've got a lot of people on you and you don't seem very worried. Pleasantly surprised to be alive...how is that your reaction to nearly being lynched? How is your reaction just "Ok, cool. I'm alive, this is good, wow some interesting stuff sure happened there, be back maybe before the end of night or perhaps just D3."

I don't expect LVII(i think that's correct) end-of-game antics from you, but...it would be nice if we had more to work off of with you. You're posting very infrequently, often just to say that you'll be gone some more. That doesn't give us anything to work with, and it starts to look like you're just stalling and trying to keep from getting lynched for another day or so.


Once again some more vague comments on ShiaoPi after the WBG lynch, although this time apparently willing to lynch him. I can't help but feel like austinmcc has realized that his scumbuddy is most likely being lynched tomorrow, and that this post is the start for preparations to convincingly bus him and get some towncred. There's also a stark difference between austinmcc's lenient attitude towards ShiaoPi's scummy points and his way of finding the smallest things about WBG as scummy.

This is just an intro, and not really a convincing case without knowing ShiaoPi's alignment at all, but considering my scumread on ShiaoPi and the lack of other suspects, I'll have to drop my townread on austinmcc and read through his filter looking for possible Mafia motivations later.


Wut? Is that post supposed to be a joke or something? If so, I'd appreciate if you actually tried to convince the thread you're telling the truth. Like... Any breadcrumbs? Role PM? Anything?

Breadcrumbs can be faked np. Same as with a breadcrumb, if you believe my claim, you may find that it explains some of my ShiaoPi v. WBG actions, and explains me trying to milk info from Sandroba. If you don't, you'll think I'm making it up, whether breadcrumb or explanation.

The "anything" that I can PROVE my role with would be nothing, unless we have a rolecop. However, Sandro will flip red whenever you lynch him. And I'll flip watcher if I die.


You're certainly not making it easy to believe you. No breadcrumbs, no PM, no attempts to pressure the confirmed Mafia... All you have is that you tried to "trick" your 100% Mafia target while pushing hard for someone else you thought was "looking scummy". Is that really plausible? I have a hard time seeing that. Surely we'll have to lynch either you or Sandroba today, and if you somehow flipped town it would mean lynching Sandroba tomorrow, but you're the far safer bet to go for now.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
December 06 2012 00:26 GMT
#1705
the lack of a PM and the lack of a rolecrumb is meaningless on an investigative role. The lack of a check/result crumb and the lack of pressure on sandro is trohblng
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 06 2012 00:30 GMT
#1706
On December 06 2012 09:14 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 06 2012 08:43 austinmcc wrote:
Although you being scum makes the interactions between you/ShiaoPi and sandroba/ShiaoPi all the weirder. Are you BOTH bussing him? I guess then you bus him, use that post to say it implicates me, then get me lynched while trying to get a little cred for lynching ShiaoPi?

Curious. All I know for sure right now, is that Sandroba is scum. If you think I'm so scummy, why is Sandroba townie? I notice in that post you say "you're leaning town" on Sandroba, but you don't give any further reasoning. See posts like these:

D1 - Xatalos thinks Dandel Ion is scummy
On December 02 2012 01:14 Xatalos wrote:
What I'm most concerned about are these players: VisceraEyes, DoYouHas, Dandel Ion. They all have been pretty passive background characters who are not lurking/trolling/playing bad, but not really doing anything either. I think there's a high chance for 1-2 of them being Mafia.

[Stuff on VE]

Dandel Ion hasn't put any real effort into his posts yet. He's just made some fluff one-liners and semi-useful "advice" like these:

On November 30 2012 23:10 Dandel Ion wrote:
I mean, I agree that Lazermonkey is being overeager with calling you out like that, but Xatalos already answered you. What information do you expect to gain by asking the same thing again?


On December 01 2012 14:53 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's a themed game. Please tell me you're not gonna start a setup speculation.

Just quickly skimmed the thread, do ya still want me to explain how, when and how well I read guides, or did you realize that it was a silly question in the first place yet?


Dandel Ion doesn't just seem to care about Mafia hunting, even though he has posted a decent amount and with semi-useful content as well. I'd need to see some real improvement in his posting to make my suspicions fade. Sharing some reads or anything beneficial to finding Mafia would be a good start.

On December 02 2012 02:55 Xatalos wrote:
On December 02 2012 01:25 ShiaoPi wrote:
So who do you want to lynch Xata? Which of the three is scummiest to you?


VisceraEyes at the moment. DoYouHas and Dandel Ion haven't made any actual effort to contribute, but they haven't done anything outright scummy either. I'm most suspicious of VE's opportunistic vote for debears and his lack of interest to do pretty much anything useful after that.
On December 02 2012 05:01 Xatalos wrote:
If any of VE/DYH/Dandel can't be lynched tonight, at least it's a perfect opportunity to make some pressure. I'll change my target from VE if needed before the deadline.

3 posts, VE and Dandel Ion so scummy. Let's lynch em. Let's lynch em.

N1/D2 - Dandel Ion now Sandroba, Sandroba suddenly townie for no real reason
On December 03 2012 19:54 Xatalos wrote:
Of my other original suspects VE was obviously Mafia and DYH is now confirmed town, and Dandel Ion was replaced by sandroba (who feels townish so far) so I'm not willing to lynch other players at this moment.

On December 03 2012 22:16 Xatalos wrote:
On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote:
Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved.
##Vote: ShiaoPi


Hmm. Alright, I can agree with lynching ShiaoPi today. It also helps that I have a town read on both you and WBG. And ShiaoPi hasn't been lurking quite as heavily as Zealos, but he hasn't done anything either.

##Unvote
##Vote ShiaoPi


Although I'm wondering where Zealos has disappeared. And Lazermonkey. What we need now is more posts by several players who haven't done anything for a while (or even all game).
On December 04 2012 04:36 Xatalos wrote:
I'm willing to give Dandel/Sandroba a pass though, since Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been very helpful with his posts.
On December 06 2012 06:16 Xatalos wrote:
Realistically DYH, Keirathi, BH and MrZentor are out of the picture. I'm also leaning town on debears, sandroba, austinmcc and Lazermonkey.




Would you care to explain why Sandroba is townie?
Would you care to explain why DI was one of your top scum suspects D1, but D2 it's "Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been helpful with his posts" so they get a pass? It's curious to me that one of your top 3 scumreads became a guy you think is townie but you never actually said why.


The main suspicious point about Dandel Ion was his clear lack of care for achieving anything. He posted little and didn't interact, scumhunt, analyze... It could have been just disinterested town as well though. But Sandroba has been transparent and his posts have been filled with real content. He's not my top town read, given his relative inactivity, but I'm not liking him as scum.
Posts. Specifics.

You say Sandroba has been transparent. I disagree (not just because he didn't tell us he was scum).
You say his posts have been filled with content.

On December 03 2012 03:43 sandroba wrote:
I'm gonna make a post with my comments right before the deadline.

Replaces in, promises an end of night post. Fine, some people like not posting during night, but Sandroba JUST JOINED and says nothing but that there will be an end of night post.

On December 03 2012 07:40 sandroba wrote:
I have to go out quickly so I'ma post my thoughts early:
Sandroba's Town List for dummies (TM):
WBG - marvelosity = both too emo ragers for it to be fake. I can't see the genuine asshole behavior being faked here and there is no scum motivation for it. I would seriously like to lynch marv for being an assface jerk, but unfortunately I can't convince myself he is scum.
Xatalos - LOL this guy is so townie I don't understand how you baddies manage to bandwagon him day 1. 'Nuff said.
DYH - I really thought this guy was scum for his retard case on xatalos before I read the last 30 pages. However that last minute claim looks really good so I'm putting him as town. Hopefully he can get confirmed by shooting into scummers tonight. Assuming scum have 1 rb (can't really imagine them having 2) either him or marv should get their actions through.

Scummers :
Zealos, BlazingHand are scum. I don't think I need to explain why for BH. Read Zealos oportunistic jump on xata wagon. That post has scum written all over it.

People that I'm unsure but leaning scum:
VE - who you might ask? Yes this dude is playing in this game. I bet you didn't know either. Kei/Ace - Meh ace is a hard one for me to figure out. I thought he was scum when I was obsing because of his "Oh this is interesting" comment, but I'm liking kei a bit more. This BH case seems very convinient though.

Here is his giant night post. 4 townreads including "so townie I don't understand how you baddies blah blah blah" which doesn't actually say anything. 2 scumreads, one he "doesn't think he needs to explain" and one post from Zealos that he doesn't like because "it has scum written all over it"

LOOK AT THAT NIGHT POST. He replaces in, waits all night, ends night with that post. There are his reads. Half of them aren't even reads, they're just him saying he thinks someone is town or scum but without an actual reason. This from someone who replaced in, for someone who was inactive.

On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote:
Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved.
##Vote: ShiaoPi

ShiaoPi stood by sidelines, isn't doing shit. That's worth of a vote.

WBG picks up some votes
On December 04 2012 12:00 sandroba wrote:
Omg I thought this would blow over, but I see it's getting momentum. I'll post my thoughts when I wake up.

11 hours later he finally defends WBG. On what grounds? "WBG's behavior makes no sense as mafia." No posts, no quoting, just "his behavior doesn't make sense." his "tone and emotional content" were genuine. No specifics. It's not quite a nothingpost, but it says what Sandroba thinks without the WHY he thinks that.

N2 we get like 5 lines responding to DYH's rabbit hole.



So Xatalos,

Where has Sandroba been transparent? Which posts were filled with real content to you? Point them out. Let's discuss this. I know he's scum, but I'm curious about your defense of him. Because right now, you've never mentioned a single specific post, and I 100% disagree that Sandroba has been transparent.

Moreover, I 1000% disagree with you that Sandroba was "transparent" at the time you made mention of him being so. I see a few posts with some reasoning and some logic, but most of them are after you already starting leaning townie on him.
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 06 2012 00:32 GMT
#1707
On December 06 2012 09:26 Blazinghand wrote:
the lack of a PM and the lack of a rolecrumb is meaningless on an investigative role. The lack of a check/result crumb and the lack of pressure on sandro is trohblng
Yeah, it should be.

I didn't crumb the risk/Gonzaw PM in bureaucracy either. I crumbed the hell out of being mason with Sciberbia in Can't Believe. But that's the only thing I've crumbed ever I believe.

What I'd say is this - look at Sandroba's posts. Look at his N1, his N2. I probably cannot drop my confirmation bias, and I don't want to just yell my head off for 40 something hours today. But I believe that some of his posts that look like they have content don't, they're full of "reads" that aren't actually based on anything. A lot of the other posts don't have content at all.
Fe fi fo fum.
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
December 06 2012 00:45 GMT
#1708
On December 06 2012 08:33 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 06 2012 08:31 Xatalos wrote:
On December 06 2012 08:23 debears wrote:
So, the way I see it, if we lynch sandro, we get a scum no matter what


Are you honestly convinced by austin's claim? And are you okay with us losing 2 confirmed townies if we mislynch Sandroba? I don't know why you're so indifferent towards this lynch.


Might I add: 2 confirmed townies + 1 non-confirmed town for 1 scum. That's a REALLY bad trade...!!!


Wait 2 confirmed townies?

huh???

we trade sandro for austin if austin is scum

if austin is watcher we get scum for free
Keirathi
Profile Joined May 2012
United States4679 Posts
December 06 2012 00:47 GMT
#1709
On December 06 2012 09:45 debears wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 06 2012 08:33 Xatalos wrote:
On December 06 2012 08:31 Xatalos wrote:
On December 06 2012 08:23 debears wrote:
So, the way I see it, if we lynch sandro, we get a scum no matter what


Are you honestly convinced by austin's claim? And are you okay with us losing 2 confirmed townies if we mislynch Sandroba? I don't know why you're so indifferent towards this lynch.


Might I add: 2 confirmed townies + 1 non-confirmed town for 1 scum. That's a REALLY bad trade...!!!


Wait 2 confirmed townies?

huh???

we trade sandro for austin if austin is scum

if austin is watcher we get scum for free

He means NK's too.
My dear friend if I have gone pants on head, you have gone socks on ears!!! -ShiaoPi
debears
Profile Joined September 2012
United States2516 Posts
December 06 2012 01:00 GMT
#1710
Ok here are my thoughts on the situation

1. Austin lying and we lynch him:
We get a scum
Sandro most likely confirmed town

2. Austin telling the truth and we lynch him:
We lost our watcher
Sandro scum confirmed

3. Austin lying and we lynch Sandro:
Austin confirmed scum
We lose an inactive townie

4. Austin telling the truth and we lynch Sandro:
We get a scum
Austin most likely watcher

Results in which we kill scum first attempt: 1,4
Results in which we get confirmed scum as other after killing a townie: 2,3

So I think the question is which out of 2 or 3 is more favorable for town? The answer is 3

Austin has been active, he has made reads. If he is the watcher it gives the mafia someone to kill as priority
Sandro has not been active. He has not made much in terms of read. Scum wouldn't be inclined to nk him quickly

Based on the above, from a purely neutral view, lynching sandro is the better choice based purely on how much we lose if austin is telling the truth and we lynch him first. I will ponder the claim and how austin acted n2.

But I would like to share this. As of now I would rather lynch Sandro first
Keirathi
Profile Joined May 2012
United States4679 Posts
December 06 2012 01:04 GMT
#1711
On December 06 2012 09:32 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 06 2012 09:26 Blazinghand wrote:
the lack of a PM and the lack of a rolecrumb is meaningless on an investigative role. The lack of a check/result crumb and the lack of pressure on sandro is trohblng
Yeah, it should be.

I didn't crumb the risk/Gonzaw PM in bureaucracy either. I crumbed the hell out of being mason with Sciberbia in Can't Believe. But that's the only thing I've crumbed ever I believe.

What I'd say is this - look at Sandroba's posts. Look at his N1, his N2. I probably cannot drop my confirmation bias, and I don't want to just yell my head off for 40 something hours today. But I believe that some of his posts that look like they have content don't, they're full of "reads" that aren't actually based on anything. A lot of the other posts don't have content at all.

Your confirmation bias?

Confirmation bias comes from not being sure about something but convincing yourself anyways, not from having a 95%+ guaranteed scum check.

Here's part of my problem (aside from the fact that you had a red check and didn't do anything about it): your WBG/ShiaoPi analysis doesn't fit with what sandro did in Chrono before he died. "I wouldn't trust Toad as party leader", and calling Dieno town, etc. And him not giving strong reasoning for his reads isn't alignment telling at all (hell, didn't you play with him in Looney where he did basically the same thing?)
My dear friend if I have gone pants on head, you have gone socks on ears!!! -ShiaoPi
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 06 2012 01:07 GMT
#1712
On December 06 2012 10:04 Keirathi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 06 2012 09:32 austinmcc wrote:
On December 06 2012 09:26 Blazinghand wrote:
the lack of a PM and the lack of a rolecrumb is meaningless on an investigative role. The lack of a check/result crumb and the lack of pressure on sandro is trohblng
Yeah, it should be.

I didn't crumb the risk/Gonzaw PM in bureaucracy either. I crumbed the hell out of being mason with Sciberbia in Can't Believe. But that's the only thing I've crumbed ever I believe.

What I'd say is this - look at Sandroba's posts. Look at his N1, his N2. I probably cannot drop my confirmation bias, and I don't want to just yell my head off for 40 something hours today. But I believe that some of his posts that look like they have content don't, they're full of "reads" that aren't actually based on anything. A lot of the other posts don't have content at all.

Your confirmation bias?

Confirmation bias comes from not being sure about something but convincing yourself anyways, not from having a 95%+ guaranteed scum check.

Here's part of my problem (aside from the fact that you had a red check and didn't do anything about it): your WBG/ShiaoPi analysis doesn't fit with what sandro did in Chrono before he died. "I wouldn't trust Toad as party leader", and calling Dieno town, etc. And him not giving strong reasoning for his reads isn't alignment telling at all (hell, didn't you play with him in Looney where he did basically the same thing?)
It's actually 100% guaranteed.

I know Sandroba is scum

So everything I see from him I go, "Scum wrote that." Whatever it is, it's similar. It colors the entire way I see D2.
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 06 2012 01:10 GMT
#1713
On December 06 2012 10:04 Keirathi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 06 2012 09:32 austinmcc wrote:
On December 06 2012 09:26 Blazinghand wrote:
the lack of a PM and the lack of a rolecrumb is meaningless on an investigative role. The lack of a check/result crumb and the lack of pressure on sandro is trohblng
Yeah, it should be.

I didn't crumb the risk/Gonzaw PM in bureaucracy either. I crumbed the hell out of being mason with Sciberbia in Can't Believe. But that's the only thing I've crumbed ever I believe.

What I'd say is this - look at Sandroba's posts. Look at his N1, his N2. I probably cannot drop my confirmation bias, and I don't want to just yell my head off for 40 something hours today. But I believe that some of his posts that look like they have content don't, they're full of "reads" that aren't actually based on anything. A lot of the other posts don't have content at all.

Your confirmation bias?

Confirmation bias comes from not being sure about something but convincing yourself anyways, not from having a 95%+ guaranteed scum check.

Here's part of my problem (aside from the fact that you had a red check and didn't do anything about it): your WBG/ShiaoPi analysis doesn't fit with what sandro did in Chrono before he died. "I wouldn't trust Toad as party leader", and calling Dieno town, etc. And him not giving strong reasoning for his reads isn't alignment telling at all (hell, didn't you play with him in Looney where he did basically the same thing?)
I can't tell you whether Sandro is playing to this meta or that meta. I can tell you he's scum.

Then, I can pressure Xatalos for saying things about Sandroba that I personally don't find to be true. Right now, I don't care what Sandroba normally does as town or scum, because I know his alignment. I care what Xatalos thinks about Sandroba, because it's telling of Xatalos's alignment.

Also yes, I played in Looney Lynching. And in Looney Lynching I actually DIDN'T lynch Sandroba D1. Do you know what I did do? I had a blue role, I was a veteran. And I decided to give away votes on D1 (everyone thought I was retarded) and be coy about my claim on the day I was lynched (people lynched me anyway). That's the only time I've ever been lynched, and it was because I'm a 'tard when blue.

That's beside the point though. Sandroba is scum. Xatalos has some odd thoughts on him. I like investigating that.
Fe fi fo fum.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 06 2012 01:13 GMT
#1714
On December 06 2012 09:30 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 06 2012 09:14 Xatalos wrote:
On December 06 2012 08:43 austinmcc wrote:
Although you being scum makes the interactions between you/ShiaoPi and sandroba/ShiaoPi all the weirder. Are you BOTH bussing him? I guess then you bus him, use that post to say it implicates me, then get me lynched while trying to get a little cred for lynching ShiaoPi?

Curious. All I know for sure right now, is that Sandroba is scum. If you think I'm so scummy, why is Sandroba townie? I notice in that post you say "you're leaning town" on Sandroba, but you don't give any further reasoning. See posts like these:

D1 - Xatalos thinks Dandel Ion is scummy
On December 02 2012 01:14 Xatalos wrote:
What I'm most concerned about are these players: VisceraEyes, DoYouHas, Dandel Ion. They all have been pretty passive background characters who are not lurking/trolling/playing bad, but not really doing anything either. I think there's a high chance for 1-2 of them being Mafia.

[Stuff on VE]

Dandel Ion hasn't put any real effort into his posts yet. He's just made some fluff one-liners and semi-useful "advice" like these:

On November 30 2012 23:10 Dandel Ion wrote:
I mean, I agree that Lazermonkey is being overeager with calling you out like that, but Xatalos already answered you. What information do you expect to gain by asking the same thing again?


On December 01 2012 14:53 Dandel Ion wrote:
It's a themed game. Please tell me you're not gonna start a setup speculation.

Just quickly skimmed the thread, do ya still want me to explain how, when and how well I read guides, or did you realize that it was a silly question in the first place yet?


Dandel Ion doesn't just seem to care about Mafia hunting, even though he has posted a decent amount and with semi-useful content as well. I'd need to see some real improvement in his posting to make my suspicions fade. Sharing some reads or anything beneficial to finding Mafia would be a good start.

On December 02 2012 02:55 Xatalos wrote:
On December 02 2012 01:25 ShiaoPi wrote:
So who do you want to lynch Xata? Which of the three is scummiest to you?


VisceraEyes at the moment. DoYouHas and Dandel Ion haven't made any actual effort to contribute, but they haven't done anything outright scummy either. I'm most suspicious of VE's opportunistic vote for debears and his lack of interest to do pretty much anything useful after that.
On December 02 2012 05:01 Xatalos wrote:
If any of VE/DYH/Dandel can't be lynched tonight, at least it's a perfect opportunity to make some pressure. I'll change my target from VE if needed before the deadline.

3 posts, VE and Dandel Ion so scummy. Let's lynch em. Let's lynch em.

N1/D2 - Dandel Ion now Sandroba, Sandroba suddenly townie for no real reason
On December 03 2012 19:54 Xatalos wrote:
Of my other original suspects VE was obviously Mafia and DYH is now confirmed town, and Dandel Ion was replaced by sandroba (who feels townish so far) so I'm not willing to lynch other players at this moment.

On December 03 2012 22:16 Xatalos wrote:
On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote:
Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved.
##Vote: ShiaoPi


Hmm. Alright, I can agree with lynching ShiaoPi today. It also helps that I have a town read on both you and WBG. And ShiaoPi hasn't been lurking quite as heavily as Zealos, but he hasn't done anything either.

##Unvote
##Vote ShiaoPi


Although I'm wondering where Zealos has disappeared. And Lazermonkey. What we need now is more posts by several players who haven't done anything for a while (or even all game).
On December 04 2012 04:36 Xatalos wrote:
I'm willing to give Dandel/Sandroba a pass though, since Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been very helpful with his posts.
On December 06 2012 06:16 Xatalos wrote:
Realistically DYH, Keirathi, BH and MrZentor are out of the picture. I'm also leaning town on debears, sandroba, austinmcc and Lazermonkey.




Would you care to explain why Sandroba is townie?
Would you care to explain why DI was one of your top scum suspects D1, but D2 it's "Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been helpful with his posts" so they get a pass? It's curious to me that one of your top 3 scumreads became a guy you think is townie but you never actually said why.


The main suspicious point about Dandel Ion was his clear lack of care for achieving anything. He posted little and didn't interact, scumhunt, analyze... It could have been just disinterested town as well though. But Sandroba has been transparent and his posts have been filled with real content. He's not my top town read, given his relative inactivity, but I'm not liking him as scum.
Posts. Specifics.

You say Sandroba has been transparent. I disagree (not just because he didn't tell us he was scum).
You say his posts have been filled with content.

Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 03:43 sandroba wrote:
I'm gonna make a post with my comments right before the deadline.

Replaces in, promises an end of night post. Fine, some people like not posting during night, but Sandroba JUST JOINED and says nothing but that there will be an end of night post.

Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 07:40 sandroba wrote:
I have to go out quickly so I'ma post my thoughts early:
Sandroba's Town List for dummies (TM):
WBG - marvelosity = both too emo ragers for it to be fake. I can't see the genuine asshole behavior being faked here and there is no scum motivation for it. I would seriously like to lynch marv for being an assface jerk, but unfortunately I can't convince myself he is scum.
Xatalos - LOL this guy is so townie I don't understand how you baddies manage to bandwagon him day 1. 'Nuff said.
DYH - I really thought this guy was scum for his retard case on xatalos before I read the last 30 pages. However that last minute claim looks really good so I'm putting him as town. Hopefully he can get confirmed by shooting into scummers tonight. Assuming scum have 1 rb (can't really imagine them having 2) either him or marv should get their actions through.

Scummers :
Zealos, BlazingHand are scum. I don't think I need to explain why for BH. Read Zealos oportunistic jump on xata wagon. That post has scum written all over it.

People that I'm unsure but leaning scum:
VE - who you might ask? Yes this dude is playing in this game. I bet you didn't know either. Kei/Ace - Meh ace is a hard one for me to figure out. I thought he was scum when I was obsing because of his "Oh this is interesting" comment, but I'm liking kei a bit more. This BH case seems very convinient though.

Here is his giant night post. 4 townreads including "so townie I don't understand how you baddies blah blah blah" which doesn't actually say anything. 2 scumreads, one he "doesn't think he needs to explain" and one post from Zealos that he doesn't like because "it has scum written all over it"

LOOK AT THAT NIGHT POST. He replaces in, waits all night, ends night with that post. There are his reads. Half of them aren't even reads, they're just him saying he thinks someone is town or scum but without an actual reason. This from someone who replaced in, for someone who was inactive.

Show nested quote +
On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote:
Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved.
##Vote: ShiaoPi

ShiaoPi stood by sidelines, isn't doing shit. That's worth of a vote.

WBG picks up some votes
Show nested quote +
On December 04 2012 12:00 sandroba wrote:
Omg I thought this would blow over, but I see it's getting momentum. I'll post my thoughts when I wake up.

11 hours later he finally defends WBG. On what grounds? "WBG's behavior makes no sense as mafia." No posts, no quoting, just "his behavior doesn't make sense." his "tone and emotional content" were genuine. No specifics. It's not quite a nothingpost, but it says what Sandroba thinks without the WHY he thinks that.

N2 we get like 5 lines responding to DYH's rabbit hole.



So Xatalos,

Where has Sandroba been transparent? Which posts were filled with real content to you? Point them out. Let's discuss this. I know he's scum, but I'm curious about your defense of him. Because right now, you've never mentioned a single specific post, and I 100% disagree that Sandroba has been transparent.

Moreover, I 1000% disagree with you that Sandroba was "transparent" at the time you made mention of him being so. I see a few posts with some reasoning and some logic, but most of them are after you already starting leaning townie on him.


Really, looking at Sandroba's filter, it just reads more and more town. Every post of his (except a small number of totally unimportant one-liners and such) has:

A) tried to figure out players and details about their play, such as:

On December 03 2012 05:36 sandroba wrote:
Normally if there is no mention of sanity you assume sane, otherwise it's too much trolling by the host. If you don't know your sanity, you are a least informed that you don't.
Did you ask and did the host answer you? I don't need to know what the answer was, yet.


On December 03 2012 21:47 sandroba wrote:
@BH that comment on marv interactions seeming fake is annoying me, why would you think that?


B) put pressure on players he's found suspicious, such as:

On December 03 2012 06:51 sandroba wrote:
@VE anything would like to add? I must say you didn't make an impact at all in the game and I only noticed you were playing after rereading the thread. What's your stance on DYH/BH after this quick switch and the late claim?


On December 03 2012 07:13 sandroba wrote:
@BH didn't you pull very similar shit on bureaucracy day 1 as scum? Yes you did.


On December 04 2012 02:47 sandroba wrote:
@kei Let's assume lynching BH is out of the question today. Who would you want to lynch instead?


C) shared his reads very transparently without ANY pressure to do so, such as:

On December 03 2012 07:40 sandroba wrote:
I have to go out quickly so I'ma post my thoughts early:
Sandroba's Town List for dummies (TM):
WBG - marvelosity = both too emo ragers for it to be fake. I can't see the genuine asshole behavior being faked here and there is no scum motivation for it. I would seriously like to lynch marv for being an assface jerk, but unfortunately I can't convince myself he is scum.
Xatalos - LOL this guy is so townie I don't understand how you baddies manage to bandwagon him day 1. 'Nuff said.
DYH - I really thought this guy was scum for his retard case on xatalos before I read the last 30 pages. However that last minute claim looks really good so I'm putting him as town. Hopefully he can get confirmed by shooting into scummers tonight. Assuming scum have 1 rb (can't really imagine them having 2) either him or marv should get their actions through.

Scummers :
Zealos, BlazingHand are scum. I don't think I need to explain why for BH. Read Zealos oportunistic jump on xata wagon. That post has scum written all over it.

People that I'm unsure but leaning scum:
VE - who you might ask? Yes this dude is playing in this game. I bet you didn't know either. Kei/Ace - Meh ace is a hard one for me to figure out. I thought he was scum when I was obsing because of his "Oh this is interesting" comment, but I'm liking kei a bit more. This BH case seems very convinient though.


On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote:
Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved.
##Vote: ShiaoPi


On December 03 2012 22:24 sandroba wrote:
Well the thing is that VE didn't know he was gonna die. Do you think he would agree preemptively to lynch zealos in that case? I think our best bet is to ignore those 2 for now at least.


On December 04 2012 23:08 sandroba wrote:
LISTEN PEOPLE!
I've reread WBG's filter a couple times by now. Consider please that yesterday lynch was between 2 townies and scum shot marvelosity. WBG's behavior makes no sense as mafia. Even if you can twist it somehow like you guys have been trying to do, the tone and emotional content of his posts are very genuine. I've played with mafia bugs before, and while he is hard to read, he is either non confrontational or trollish, he doesn't pick fights with people for absolutely no gain like he has been doing this game.
Now let's look at ShiaoPi. This dude is desperetely trying to survive. Compare his posts d1, when he wasn't in any danger, to his posts today. He is trying really hard to justify any bandwagons he can hop on to save his own ass. Also look at how this retard wagon on bugs gained traction out of the blue. Even more reason to suspect we were right about ShiaoPi. Use your heads please.


On December 04 2012 23:51 sandroba wrote:
@shiaopi I'm voting for you because i think you are scum. Doesn't matter if you say "but, but, but, i didn't do anything, it's ve's fault" or w/e. To find scum you need to define a pattern in which you believe they will behave given a specific situation. Unfortunatelly for you, you fit the pattern I arbitrarily defined that scum would behave day 1 in a 2 townie wagon and then day 2 after being acused. Ve's comment is just icing on the cake and serves to strenghen my belief and make everything fit toghether even more nicely.


On December 04 2012 23:57 sandroba wrote:
Being detrimental to the town =/= wbg is scum. His emotional response to marv makes sense given the lack of knowledge of marv's alignment because it was the exact same response I had when reading through those pages.


On December 05 2012 22:19 sandroba wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 05 2012 09:06 DoYouHas wrote:
Follow me down the rabbit hole if you will MrZ and BH.

Exempting yourselves, myself, and Keirathi from scum possibilities the remainders are:

    Xatalos, Sandroba, debears, austinmcc, Lazermonkey, Shiaopi


Sandroba and debears seem townie to me, you both seem to agree, let's remove them from the list:

    Xatalos, austinmcc, Lazermonkey, and Shiaopi.


If we indeed have 2 pairs of town aligned masons, then it only makes sense that there are at least 4 mafia in the game. That means there should be 3 mafia in the 4 names I just presented. But if that is true, that means that at least one or both of Xatalos/Lazer is scum. And if one or both of them is scum, it drastically reduces the chances that Shiaopi is scum with them. If you don't understand why, then do some time rereading. Take that name off the list.

    Xatalos, austinmcc, Lazermonkey

There is your scumteam.

There are two things that could throw my thinking out the window.
1. I could be wrong about sandroba and debears. I don't think I am, but it is possible.
2. You (Mrz & BH) could be mafia in spite of everything.

I would much rather confirm my thinking by lynching Lazer, but if you actively oppose me in this, it had better be because you don't agree that keir/sandro/debears are town. Otherwise I am forced to assume that you are scum.


Xatalos is most likely not scum. The random Shiaopi isn't scum makes no sense. If you look carefully of how the day went the most likely scenario is that he is indeed scum, given the counter wagons and the hopping out of his wagon as soon as it became clear that there was a possibility of him not being lynched. I don't agree that debears looks townie. I would put him toghether with lazer and austin as the possible remaining scum (besisdes shiaopi).
These mason claims I'm going to look into some more. 4 masons does seem like a lot, but I never before have seen scum claiming it.


The point is, you can clearly see Sandroba's opinions behind his posts and his posts are all aimed at 1) improving his reads on players 2) pushing the lynch on the most likely scum C) hard defending players he finds townish. Everything just screams "TOWN!". I seriously can't find a single Mafia motivation inside Sandroba's filter. You try to dismiss his reads as "not saying anything" while they in fact are decisive and logical. Sometimes he says stuff like "I can't be bothered to explain it", but that's just being lazy (a null tell), not being vague or evasive (a scum tell). And mostly he DOES have a real reason for his reads. You're grossly exaggerating by saying that he's not providing reasons for his reads. A reason doesn't always have to be a huge commentary on someone's filter, it's just as relevant to analyze someone's overall playstyle, activity, emotions, interactions etc. Often it can be better for finding Mafia motivations than "scumslips" inside walls of text.

"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 06 2012 01:24 GMT
#1715
On December 06 2012 10:00 debears wrote:
Ok here are my thoughts on the situation

1. Austin lying and we lynch him:
We get a scum
Sandro most likely confirmed town

2. Austin telling the truth and we lynch him:
We lost our watcher
Sandro scum confirmed

3. Austin lying and we lynch Sandro:
Austin confirmed scum
We lose an inactive townie

4. Austin telling the truth and we lynch Sandro:
We get a scum
Austin most likely watcher

Results in which we kill scum first attempt: 1,4
Results in which we get confirmed scum as other after killing a townie: 2,3

So I think the question is which out of 2 or 3 is more favorable for town? The answer is 3

Austin has been active, he has made reads. If he is the watcher it gives the mafia someone to kill as priority
Sandro has not been active. He has not made much in terms of read. Scum wouldn't be inclined to nk him quickly

Based on the above, from a purely neutral view, lynching sandro is the better choice based purely on how much we lose if austin is telling the truth and we lynch him first. I will ponder the claim and how austin acted n2.

But I would like to share this. As of now I would rather lynch Sandro first


That's just a stupid way to look at it. If we mislynch, we trade 2 confirmed townies and 1 other townie for 1 Mafia. If we lynch correctly, we trade 1 confirmed townie for 1 Mafia. It's pointless to consider this from a "neutral point of view" and calculate the disadvantages of lynching austinmcc in case he actually is a blue compared to lynching Sandroba in case he is town. There's always a chance that we will fail with the lynch, but it shouldn't be the starting point. It's unquestionably multiple times more beneficial to lynch correctly (saving 2 townies in the process), so we should only focus on that for today. Answer this: do you honestly think austinmcc is more townish of these two?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 06 2012 01:31 GMT
#1716
I don't want to quote the giant post there, but I think you're making things up. One of the two things Sandroba "tried to figure out" was Marv's sanity, something that scum would want to know. If he's not sane, he's not necessarily a N1 kill.

The "pressure" you quote is 3 small questions to people. Do you find that he followed up on his questions? Do his reads look like he actually cared about his questions and the way that other players answered? If "he asked these three questions" is something you find townie...there's a problem.

In fact, you'll notice that you said Sandroba felt "townish" after REPLACING ONE OF YOUR TOP 3 SCUMREADS at 19:54 on December 3. Out of the posts you listed of Sandroba's, the following were prior to that:

His asking about marv's sanity
His 3 dinky questions
His reads at the end of the night, which are half "it's so obvious I don't need to explain it"

That's what you had to work with when you first said Sandroba seemed townie. Sandroba, the guy who replaced one of your top 3 scumreads from D1.
Fe fi fo fum.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
December 06 2012 01:46 GMT
#1717
On December 06 2012 10:31 austinmcc wrote:
I don't want to quote the giant post there, but I think you're making things up. One of the two things Sandroba "tried to figure out" was Marv's sanity, something that scum would want to know. If he's not sane, he's not necessarily a N1 kill.

The "pressure" you quote is 3 small questions to people. Do you find that he followed up on his questions? Do his reads look like he actually cared about his questions and the way that other players answered? If "he asked these three questions" is something you find townie...there's a problem.

In fact, you'll notice that you said Sandroba felt "townish" after REPLACING ONE OF YOUR TOP 3 SCUMREADS at 19:54 on December 3. Out of the posts you listed of Sandroba's, the following were prior to that:

His asking about marv's sanity
His 3 dinky questions
His reads at the end of the night, which are half "it's so obvious I don't need to explain it"

That's what you had to work with when you first said Sandroba seemed townie. Sandroba, the guy who replaced one of your top 3 scumreads from D1.


Dandel Ion wasn't a strong scumread for me to at any point, maybe slightly leaning scum. He was just someone I wasn't feeling comfortable about since he didn't really seem to care. But Sandroba was the opposite, instantly asking relevant questions and sharing his opinions about any topic. Granted, I'd like to see some more evidence for his opinions from now on, but the point is that he clearly cares about what's happening in the thread and tries to actively direct the flow of the thread. IMO his posting style is a bit like MrZentor's, except more townish (with more reasoning and less sheeping). If you find Sandroba scummy, you should find MrZentor scummy as well (granted, he's clearly a Mason, but I mean on principle).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 06 2012 01:48 GMT
#1718
If anyone has more questions, shoot. I'm going to put mafia aside for the most part for the rest of tonight, and tomorrow gonna try to look at a couple filters of people under the radar while at work, LazerMonkey in particular (DYH pushed him D2 and had some good points)
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 06 2012 01:52 GMT
#1719
On December 06 2012 10:46 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 06 2012 10:31 austinmcc wrote:
I don't want to quote the giant post there, but I think you're making things up. One of the two things Sandroba "tried to figure out" was Marv's sanity, something that scum would want to know. If he's not sane, he's not necessarily a N1 kill.

The "pressure" you quote is 3 small questions to people. Do you find that he followed up on his questions? Do his reads look like he actually cared about his questions and the way that other players answered? If "he asked these three questions" is something you find townie...there's a problem.

In fact, you'll notice that you said Sandroba felt "townish" after REPLACING ONE OF YOUR TOP 3 SCUMREADS at 19:54 on December 3. Out of the posts you listed of Sandroba's, the following were prior to that:

His asking about marv's sanity
His 3 dinky questions
His reads at the end of the night, which are half "it's so obvious I don't need to explain it"

That's what you had to work with when you first said Sandroba seemed townie. Sandroba, the guy who replaced one of your top 3 scumreads from D1.


Dandel Ion wasn't a strong scumread for me to at any point, maybe slightly leaning scum. He was just someone I wasn't feeling comfortable about since he didn't really seem to care. But Sandroba was the opposite, instantly asking relevant questions and sharing his opinions about any topic. Granted, I'd like to see some more evidence for his opinions from now on, but the point is that he clearly cares about what's happening in the thread and tries to actively direct the flow of the thread. IMO his posting style is a bit like MrZentor's, except more townish (with more reasoning and less sheeping). If you find Sandroba scummy, you should find MrZentor scummy as well (granted, he's clearly a Mason, but I mean on principle).
If Dandel Ion wasn't a strong scumread for you, then who WERE your strong scumreads D1?

3 different opportunities you grouped together VE/DYH/Dandel Ion. VE was scummiest to you, you did say that. And I'm not whether I believe you'd have put 2 scumbuddies in a list of three. If Dandel Ion wasn't a strong scumread, was DYH? If neither of those were strong scumreads, you just had a strong scumread on VE and nobody else?
Fe fi fo fum.
Keirathi
Profile Joined May 2012
United States4679 Posts
December 06 2012 03:08 GMT
#1720
On December 06 2012 10:10 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 06 2012 10:04 Keirathi wrote:
On December 06 2012 09:32 austinmcc wrote:
On December 06 2012 09:26 Blazinghand wrote:
the lack of a PM and the lack of a rolecrumb is meaningless on an investigative role. The lack of a check/result crumb and the lack of pressure on sandro is trohblng
Yeah, it should be.

I didn't crumb the risk/Gonzaw PM in bureaucracy either. I crumbed the hell out of being mason with Sciberbia in Can't Believe. But that's the only thing I've crumbed ever I believe.

What I'd say is this - look at Sandroba's posts. Look at his N1, his N2. I probably cannot drop my confirmation bias, and I don't want to just yell my head off for 40 something hours today. But I believe that some of his posts that look like they have content don't, they're full of "reads" that aren't actually based on anything. A lot of the other posts don't have content at all.

Your confirmation bias?

Confirmation bias comes from not being sure about something but convincing yourself anyways, not from having a 95%+ guaranteed scum check.

Here's part of my problem (aside from the fact that you had a red check and didn't do anything about it): your WBG/ShiaoPi analysis doesn't fit with what sandro did in Chrono before he died. "I wouldn't trust Toad as party leader", and calling Dieno town, etc. And him not giving strong reasoning for his reads isn't alignment telling at all (hell, didn't you play with him in Looney where he did basically the same thing?)
I can't tell you whether Sandro is playing to this meta or that meta. I can tell you he's scum.

Then, I can pressure Xatalos for saying things about Sandroba that I personally don't find to be true. Right now, I don't care what Sandroba normally does as town or scum, because I know his alignment. I care what Xatalos thinks about Sandroba, because it's telling of Xatalos's alignment.

Also yes, I played in Looney Lynching. And in Looney Lynching I actually DIDN'T lynch Sandroba D1. Do you know what I did do? I had a blue role, I was a veteran. And I decided to give away votes on D1 (everyone thought I was retarded) and be coy about my claim on the day I was lynched (people lynched me anyway). That's the only time I've ever been lynched, and it was because I'm a 'tard when blue.

That's beside the point though. Sandroba is scum. Xatalos has some odd thoughts on him. I like investigating that.

Again, you're completely missing the point of what I'm trying to say.

Your actions during the day yesterday just don't line up with what a person with a scum check would do, IMO.

So if you're an information role and have a scum check on someone, you really have 3 options:

1) Claim to get them lynched. Fine, you didn't want to do that.

2) Push as hard as you can for that person to get lynched without claiming. Make a case. Make a meta case. Do whatever you can to get SOMEONE to think that person is scum. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't, but you still have the claim to fall back on later.

3) Think you have zero chance of getting the person lynched without claiming, so you engage that person, and try to get them to slip up, and make some associative cases for when you do decide to claim. Which is what you said you were doing.

But, if you have a scum check on someone and don't think you can push them to a lynch, why in the world wouldn't you go back and look at some scum games of that person to see what they tend to say about their teammates? Why would just assume that "sando saying WBG is town means that WBG is scum, and sandro pushing ShiaoPi means ShiaoPi is town"? Would you assume the same thing if that scum check was on marv, who has a history of bussing 'liability' teammates who are likely to get lynched anyways?

You put no effort into doing anything that can be seen by me as even remotely pushing a town agenda towards a scum scum check. THAT'S my problem
My dear friend if I have gone pants on head, you have gone socks on ears!!! -ShiaoPi
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