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debears
United States2516 Posts
On December 07 2012 01:23 sandroba wrote: He is either that or scum, which one makes more sense? It is not speculation it's behavior analysis ty. he is either town or scum. We don't know if there are traitors. There have only been normal roles so far. How are you so sure there is a traitor? Are you the traitor? You are coming up with reasons for voting him. I don't like that one bit | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
Making up reasons for voting him | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
On December 07 2012 01:39 sandroba wrote: You must not have taken your pills today. I know for a fact that he is either scum or traitor. Traitor is a normal role, just like millers, masons, watchers. He is either complete bonkers scum or traitor, I'll go with traitor because I have a brain. Watch the flip and then apologize thx. How about you show me how his posting this whole game is solely/largely scum motivated? If you can do that successfully, then I'll vote him | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
A cop, a vig, two masons, two more masons, and a watcher have claimed That's 7 power roles in a 15 player game. And from a guess there isn't a scum roleblocker based on the fact that dyhs vig shotwent through The cop vig and one mason are confirmed. I'm treating keir as confirmed. That's 4 blues. We have 3 possible fakeclaims in the group above. Idk if we would even have 6 power roles with no scum rb qt this point | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On the one hand, why would scum claim a red check when they had done nothing about ti? Like, if you I was going to fake claim with a red check, I would have at least said it was a red check on someone I had been pushing. But on the other hand, I still can't get over: On December 04 2012 05:05 austinmcc wrote: (1) We all know that WBG raged at his team, went afk in fountain with Exort invoker, and stole all those kills/assists with Suntrike. (2) I'd like to hear more from you concering folks that aren't ShiaoPi or VE. I got not problem with you sitting back D1, but short of other claims it looks like you or sandro or DYH would be the likely mafia targets tonight. For instance, you wanted to pressure these folks: I haven't played with MrZ. I know he has a bit of a reputation. I've found him pretty clear and logical this whole game. Does that strike you as odd, or do you have a problem with that? Or does it make you think he's town? Do you still want to pressure him? Zealos hasn't posted since partway through D1. You brought him up a little in relation to VE, but what do you make of his actual posts. I didn't like them D1 when talking to LazerMonkey, BH found them townie, but you haven't said anything about the actual posts that he did make, which is all we have to go off of. I can't wrap my head around any possible motivation for that bit about sandro being shot by scum. That REALLY pushes it towards feeling like a fake claim that just forgot something he said earlier. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
You didn't claim. You didn't make a case on him. I don't agree with the fact that you did the above points. I don't agree with that you chose to try to question sandroba. However me disagreeing heavily with you doesn't necesarily make you scum. However, the way question sandroba is so incredibly weak. After the night, you post 3 posts asking him questions. Also, during this period of time you claim to have a town read on sandroba. How does this encourage him giving out reads? Had you said that you were leaning scum/null then sandroba would be forced to convince you that he is in fact town, thus increasing the chance for him to give out his reads. Also, as a response to this post of deabears. On December 06 2012 10:00 debears wrote: This way is thinking would be good if the probebility of Sandro and Austin being scum would be equal to each other. However, I think scum Austin are far more likely.Ok here are my thoughts on the situation 1. Austin lying and we lynch him: We get a scum Sandro most likely confirmed town 2. Austin telling the truth and we lynch him: We lost our watcher Sandro scum confirmed 3. Austin lying and we lynch Sandro: Austin confirmed scum We lose an inactive townie 4. Austin telling the truth and we lynch Sandro: We get a scum Austin most likely watcher Results in which we kill scum first attempt: 1,4 Results in which we get confirmed scum as other after killing a townie: 2,3 So I think the question is which out of 2 or 3 is more favorable for town? The answer is 3 Austin has been active, he has made reads. If he is the watcher it gives the mafia someone to kill as priority Sandro has not been active. He has not made much in terms of read. Scum wouldn't be inclined to nk him quickly Based on the above, from a purely neutral view, lynching sandro is the better choice based purely on how much we lose if austin is telling the truth and we lynch him first. I will ponder the claim and how austin acted n2. But I would like to share this. As of now I would rather lynch Sandro first ##Vote Austinmcc | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On December 07 2012 02:55 Keirathi wrote: Argg fuck me. I can't decide if I believe austin or not. On the one hand, why would scum claim a red check when they had done nothing about ti? Like, if you I was going to fake claim with a red check, I would have at least said it was a red check on someone I had been pushing. But on the other hand, I still can't get over: I can't wrap my head around any possible motivation for that bit about sandro being shot by scum. That REALLY pushes it towards feeling like a fake claim that just forgot something he said earlier. The problem is (for austinmcc) that there was no other option. WBG is dead, Zealos is dead, DYH is dead, BH is confirmed town. Who else did he push? He casted some suspicion on ShiaoPi early on, but didn't actually pursue that at any point - actually, quite the opposite. He's been soft defending ShiaoPi after the initial suspicion. He hasn't been pushing anyone he could conveniently frame now. So, his only option is to frame some non-confirmed townie he hasn't been pushing so far (Sandroba, Lazermonkey, debears, myself). Considering that there are possibly Mafia on this list, and that I'm a strong townread for several players, Sandroba isn't really a bad/weird pick for austinmcc. Nobody has him as a high townread and he hasn't done *too* much during this game. It's not a bad bet that he could manage to get Sandroba mislynched today - at least easier than someone like myself or especially one of BH/MrZ/Keirathi. I don't see how austinmcc choosing Sandroba as Mafia is unlikely at all. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
You, along with all other not-mes, find my actions ridiculous and don't believe my claim. Okay. So then, about my play: (1) You think my play is less optimal as town than as scum. Go into that, why? You think I didn't play out D2 properly if I had a red check. But that applies equally to not playing out my D2 properly if I was going to do this as scum. Especially given that I can easily make up other things as scum. Why is one less optimal than the other? (2) Have you looked at the past games I listed? Do they matter to you? Should they? As to you, I see a mix of posts in your filter. Mostly short ones. Some longer ones when you respond, make a case on ShiaoPi, actually get involved. But apart from throwing in some general musings on WBG/ShiaoPi and masons, and your case on ShiaoPi, I don't get the feeling there's much there. DYH was worried about you yesterday, and now he's a bit deceased. So, some questions. At the end of each night, you've given two massive posts of reads. Why? Why not give them throughout the night? Why are most of your reads only ever popping up this late? Moreover, your reads on Sandroba haven't exactly been townie... On December 03 2012 08:00 Lazermonkey wrote: DI/Sandroba I cannot comment on really. There isn't anything to comment on in fact. On December 06 2012 07:59 Lazermonkey wrote: Sandroba - I haven't done very much analysis on him either. However one of his posts earlier today caught my attention a bit. Remember that Sandrobawas not present during the lynch. Not even close, He basically went afk about 12 hours before it. Also, he doesn't actually comment on anything regarding the lynch. Just that it's bad. Saying stuff like this risk to demoralize town. So why would someone as town say this? I really don't see the motivation for it. Not really lych worthy but still. I will look more closely into sandroba later. You don't see a town motivation for a post Sandroba made. That's basically your only comment on Sandroba. Did you ever go look at Sandroba? If not...why not? Especially given he's a major player in today's lynch, why haven't you looked at him? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On December 07 2012 05:13 Xatalos wrote: The problem is (for austinmcc) that there was no other option. WBG is dead, Zealos is dead, DYH is dead, BH is confirmed town. Who else did he push? He casted some suspicion on ShiaoPi early on, but didn't actually pursue that at any point - actually, quite the opposite. He's been soft defending ShiaoPi after the initial suspicion. He hasn't been pushing anyone he could conveniently frame now. So, his only option is to frame some non-confirmed townie he hasn't been pushing so far (Sandroba, Lazermonkey, debears, myself). Considering that there are possibly Mafia on this list, and that I'm a strong townread for several players, Sandroba isn't really a bad/weird pick for austinmcc. Nobody has him as a high townread and he hasn't done *too* much during this game. It's not a bad bet that he could manage to get Sandroba mislynched today - at least easier than someone like myself or especially one of BH/MrZ/Keirathi. I don't see how austinmcc choosing Sandroba as Mafia is unlikely at all. You're missing the point I was trying to make. If Austin was scum and wanted to fake claim to get sandro lynched, it would have made infinitely more sense to claim after the day post and say sandro killed DYH night 2. The problem is that if Austin is town and had a red check yesterday...well pretty much anything else would have made infinitely more sense than what he actually did. I don't know how to decide if his play was terrible scum or terrible town. | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
If they're claim was false, then there'd be a vig, cop, 2 masons, and a watcher. That's 5 blues. I would think you would be super suspicious that there would be 2 more masons. In other words, with the knowledge that sandro is scum if you are watcher, the game would be pretty much over. I don't see there being 7 blues. So it's either you or BH and MrZ imo. Combine that with that fact that you watched BH last night for some reason when DYH/Keir would be the obvious nks. Especially with the fact that you should be suspicious of BH and Mrz. WHY WOULD YOU WATCH BH AND NOT KEIR OR DYH WHEN A BH/MRZ CLAIM TRUE WITH YOURS WOULD MAKE 7/15 PLAYERS BLUE AND 4/15 THAT COULD CONFIRM THEMSELVES?????? ##Vote Ausin | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On December 07 2012 05:24 Keirathi wrote: You're missing the point I was trying to make. If Austin was scum and wanted to fake claim to get sandro lynched, it would have made infinitely more sense to claim after the day post and say sandro killed DYH night 2. The problem is that if Austin is town and had a red check yesterday...well pretty much anything else would have made infinitely more sense than what he actually did. I don't know how to decide if his play was terrible scum or terrible town. Hmmmmm. Alright, I can see your point. This is really weird/bad play no matter his alignment. Is it really plausible that he would have intentionally made his job harder if he was Mafia trying to get a mislynch? Is it really plausible that he would have publicly announced Sandroba as a townread of his and had almost non-existent interaction with him during Day 2 if he was 100% certain Sandroba was Mafia? None of this makes any sense. But if he's playing suboptimally in any case, I'd rather lean on the possibility that he messed up / tried to somehow WIFOM his way around this as Mafia (rather than that he didn't act upon his confirmed Mafia knowledge). | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
Also, I'm not sure which games you mean, but I usually don't look into meta very much, and if I do, it's usually never a mayor part of my read against someone. But I can check I guess. Regarding Sandroba, no I haven't looked into him. As a matter of fact, I haven't looked into anyone today because I was really busy IRL. Will probebly be able to do that tomorrow. I did have a slight scum read on him, yes. But I didn't feel like pushing his lynch would be very beneficial because my scum reads on other players were much stronger. Regarding my reads comming in late, that's what I always do. I feel like talking too much about reads during the night will help scum getting the best possible shot off. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 07 2012 05:34 debears wrote: Well for one, I'd rather push the guy I have a confirmed red check on. Right now, that's taking up a good bit of my time. That's why I'm not pushing anyone else right now (although hopefully you can see that I'm still trying to figure this game out).Ausin, I remember after GSL III you mentioned that you love setup speculation when I asked you about it. I would like to know that why you wouldn't push BH/MrZ as scum based on setup speculation. If they're claim was false, then there'd be a vig, cop, 2 masons, and a watcher. That's 5 blues. I would think you would be super suspicious that there would be 2 more masons. In other words, with the knowledge that sandro is scum if you are watcher, the game would be pretty much over. I don't see there being 7 blues. So it's either you or BH and MrZ imo. Combine that with that fact that you watched BH last night for some reason when DYH/Keir would be the obvious nks. Especially with the fact that you should be suspicious of BH and Mrz. WHY WOULD YOU WATCH BH AND NOT KEIR OR DYH WHEN A BH/MRZ CLAIM TRUE WITH YOURS WOULD MAKE 7/15 PLAYERS BLUE AND 4/15 THAT COULD CONFIRM THEMSELVES?????? ##Vote Ausin As to the speculation, rawr. I know we have 4 confirmed roles right now. Other players may know we have 4 confirmed roles, and if BH/MrZ are truthful they know we have 5 confirmed roles if not more. (Vigi, DT, WBG mason, any role the person himself has). I AM super suspicious that there are 4 town masons. Keirathi has put more EFFORT into this game than BH/MrZ, seems to be playing Keirathi-ish. It feels a lot like I remember in Aperture, good number of posts, some good thoughts, trying to figure out the game, but never being the guy to just yell at everyone "HEY, THIS IS WHAT WE'RE DOING AND THIS IS RIGHT EVERYONE SHEEP ME." BH/MrZ have the double claim going for them, but specifically the speed at which BH counterclaimed. When I looked things back over, it's the exact same minute as Keirathi's claim. the speed adds legitimacy, because there's no way he started chatting with MrZ in scum QT and they agreed to do this, it would have been a snap call, made unilaterally by a single scum member that affected multiple scum players. If we have 7 blues, or more, that's ridonculous. Or seems ridonculous. Options to balance that would seem to include things like a roleblocker (no claims) or something like that. There's the possibility that there are two scum teams, maybe one without KP, or both have conditional/limited KP, or some other restriction. There's the possibility it's a very large scumteam but low on powers. I don't think I like those options more than I like thinking that one or more of our masons isn't a mason. As to why I watched BH over Keirathi and DYH, I explained that in an earlier post. If I'm watching a mason, the snap claim still feels very strongly town to me at this point. So I'd prefer to watch BH over Keirathi. Neither is a bad scumhunter, but I'm pretty sure that Sandroba (who I knew was scum) had played more with BH. Moreover, BH/MrZ are still a mason pair. If all claims are true, Keirathi is now a VT with old mason logs. BH/MrZ are still masons. They are the bigger threat to scum, if claims true. So I'd rather watch BH over Keirathi if I'm watching a mason - why would scum try to take out the unpaired mason over the paired one. Yes, they don't want to confirm boatloads of masons, but as of yet nobody is REALLY questioning BH and MrZ's "you know your buddy is town" PMs. They are...somewhat suspect, but we're not quite there yet (at least not while I'm distracted with today's lynch). So then, again as explained before, I'm down to BH vs. DYH. We've only seen a single night. We saw 2 KP. It's a 15-man game. Potential SK, potential 2 scum teams, potential scum team with multiple KP, or a definite KP and a limited one. And again, Sandroba knows BH better, may feel him more dangerous (if all claims true and both town). And again, BH part of an active mason pair, whereas DYH is claiming to be a one-shot vigi with no shot left. Look at it that way. Out of the 4 claims we had, we had a mason with no mason buddy. We had a one-shot vigi who had already shot. We had an active mason pair. If those claims are true...aren't you firing into the active mason pair as scum, when you saw NO protective roles N1? | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On December 07 2012 05:24 Keirathi wrote: Well, your point is wrong. You're missing the point I was trying to make. If Austin was scum and wanted to fake claim to get sandro lynched, it would have made infinitely more sense to claim after the day post and say sandro killed DYH night 2. The problem is that if Austin is town and had a red check yesterday...well pretty much anything else would have made infinitely more sense than what he actually did. I don't know how to decide if his play was terrible scum or terrible town. There is no fucking way in hell he would get away watching anyone but Marv N1. The fact that you even try to use arguments like this makes me wonder if you actually are town. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 07 2012 05:56 Lazermonkey wrote: Where is the difference? If I'm claiming watcher with a red check on Sandroba, whether real or fake, and I'm behaving in a way that doesn't match up with my claim, why is the town claim less optimal?Austin, I explained why I think your play is very suboptimal in my post quite clear. And the reason I think your claim would be bad from scum PoV is that there probebly would have been better ways of fake claiming and try to trade 1 on 1 with town, though I haven't really thought too much about it. I think for you to be town your play would have to super duper suboptimal while as scum just slightly. Thus Ockhams razer tells me that you are scum. You haven't actually said that. You said said it wouldn't be optimal scum play, and gave reasons why it would be bad town play. But you didn't explain why you think one is for some reason less optimal than the other. Why is it slightly bad as scum but super duper bad as town? Regarding Sandroba, no I haven't looked into him. As a matter of fact, I haven't looked into anyone today because I was really busy IRL. Will probebly be able to do that tomorrow. I did have a slight scum read on him, yes. But I didn't feel like pushing his lynch would be very beneficial because my scum reads on other players were much stronger. You may want to look into the other lynch candidate today before voting. It would probably be a good idea to actually vote based on both of us, no?Beyond that, what do you think about Xatalos right now? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 07 2012 05:58 Lazermonkey wrote: Well, your point is wrong. There is no fucking way in hell he would get away watching anyone but Marv N1. The fact that you even try to use arguments like this makes me wonder if you actually are town. You are missing the point. It's not that I would have claimed to watch someone else N1. It's that I could have claimed at the start of D3 to have watched DYH N2, and seen Sandroba kill him. Nobody is talking about watching other targets N1. | ||
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