EPTParanoia Mafia - Page 69
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
I've reread WBG's filter a couple times by now. Consider please that yesterday lynch was between 2 townies and scum shot marvelosity. WBG's behavior makes no sense as mafia. Even if you can twist it somehow like you guys have been trying to do, the tone and emotional content of his posts are very genuine. I've played with mafia bugs before, and while he is hard to read, he is either non confrontational or trollish, he doesn't pick fights with people for absolutely no gain like he has been doing this game. Now let's look at ShiaoPi. This dude is desperetely trying to survive. Compare his posts d1, when he wasn't in any danger, to his posts today. He is trying really hard to justify any bandwagons he can hop on to save his own ass. Also look at how this retard wagon on bugs gained traction out of the blue. Even more reason to suspect we were right about ShiaoPi. Use your heads please. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On December 04 2012 23:37 ShiaoPi wrote: So you seriously want to lynch me off a single mention by VE sandroba? What the fuck is wrong with all of you? What...? That's not what sandroba said, nor was it my case against you. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
Sandroba, mind commentating on the other things that happened in thread? Anything on bugs besides finding the case by debears amusing? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
WBG's posts last night initially struck me as scummy. I'm not sure that they do after sleeping on it and thinking some more. Sandroba, you've been sort of sideways-defending WBG. On December 04 2012 12:00 sandroba wrote: Omg I thought this would blow over, but I see it's getting momentum. I'll post my thoughts when I wake up. On December 04 2012 23:08 sandroba wrote: You find the tone of his posts, and their emotion, genuine. That doesn't actually say anything. That tells me bugs is invested in the game, and serious about what he's saying...but so what? He wasn't super invested D1, which is fine. He was super invested in his fight with marv and somewhat invested in his defense now, but I don't see why he'd have to FAKE emotion for either of those. Nobody is saying "yeah, wbg FAKING all this. (I know you like to scumhunt based on sincerity and tone and whatnot, but I don't feel that you've actually explained yourself here)LISTEN PEOPLE! I've reread WBG's filter a couple times by now. Consider please that yesterday lynch was between 2 townies and scum shot marvelosity. WBG's behavior makes no sense as mafia. Even if you can twist it somehow like you guys have been trying to do, the tone and emotional content of his posts are very genuine. I've played with mafia bugs before, and while he is hard to read, he is either non confrontational or trollish, he doesn't pick fights with people for absolutely no gain like he has been doing this game. I'd also take issue with you saying he doesn't pick fights with people for no gain. I don't think you can say there was no gain for sure, because marv didn't do boatloads N1 while he should have been nearly certain he was going to die. Whether WBG is scum or not, his spat with marv, assuming it caused marv to pull away from the game N1, was detrimental to town beyond clogging up the thread. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
1) WBG defended DP, but didn't care DYH was lynched. I would have mislynched DYH 100% D1 if not for his vigi claim. As I've stated before I thought his case on xatalos was utter bullshit and was very convinced of this guy being scum before replacing in. It doesn't surprise me that WBG didn't care if DYH got lynched instead of DP, which he had a town read on. Now as to why he didn't push DYH instead of going for marv I don't know, but I have to admit that marv's claim was pretty sketchy and I had to think real hard before determining he was likely town. "I am DT" in the middle of D1 with slight pressure on him, followed by "I might not be sane" after people start unvoting him looks suspicious as fuck, specially when you are biased because the dude is being a dick in the thread. For mafia it would make way more sense and be way easier to simply ignore marv and try to get into one of the main alternate wagons. Since you say WBG had no qualms lynching DYH why would he not as mafia simply jump on his wagon instead of trying to get marv lynched. Surely you can imagine the backlash he would suffer once marv flipped DT. 2)Vote on marv I adressed this on the block above. 3)Bunch of random facts stating facts and saying that they are scummy does not make it so. 'nuff said 4)bunch of random facts see above 5) Meta comparison to mad men I thought he was mafia on mad men. I then learned he wasn't. Your comparison is good for proving he is likely town this game though. You see, wbg and erandor had a much closer relationship than you-him. WBG expected erandor to identify he is town and got pissed off and raged in the thread. Simillar to how he expects better of marv and raged in the thread/assumed he was scum for playing like shit D1. The fact that he didn't adress your points can be explained by how he doesn't know your play/doesn't expect much from you and sees no needs to adress a case that has no traction. I doesn't mean he is auto mafia for ignoring you, sorry. 6) claims meta is the same even if you say it isn't yes. so? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 04 2012 22:51 Xatalos wrote: Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon. On December 04 2012 22:56 ShiaoPi wrote: That game was a long time ago and I was also in a different timezone, much more fitting for playing with EU/NA. Just saying you should not take that game as a basis for meta, go for more recent games such as Liquid City or LVI and LVII Xatalos, I would suggest looking at... LVII at least. I remember having the same feeling about ShiaoPi there that I did D1 here. He turned out to be town. It doesn't make him town here, but ... I've seen town ShiaoPi be relatively uninvested early compared to his play in that newbie game. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 04 2012 23:53 sandroba wrote: @austin your point is? I can't figure out why you're defending WBG in the manner you are. Relying on alignments of people at lynch and his sincerity/emotion don't feel like strong arguments to me, and if he's been sincerely anything this game it's flippant when anyone brought up his posting D1 and when votes starting falling on him D2. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On December 04 2012 23:51 sandroba wrote: @shiaopi I'm voting for you because i think you are scum. Doesn't matter if you say "but, but, but, i didn't do anything, it's ve's fault" or w/e. To find scum you need to define a pattern in which you believe they will behave given a specific situation. Unfortunatelly for you, you fit the pattern I arbitrarily defined that scum would behave day 1 in a 2 townie wagon and then day 2 after being acused. Ve's comment is just icing on the cake and serves to strenghen my belief and make everything fit toghether even more nicely. Fucking ridiculous is all I can say to that, you do not even define what that "pattern" of yours is. So anyone else that fits that pattern? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On December 05 2012 00:04 ShiaoPi wrote: Fucking ridiculous is all I can say to that, you do not even define what that "pattern" of yours is. So anyone else that fits that pattern? On December 04 2012 23:08 sandroba wrote: Now let's look at ShiaoPi. This dude is desperetely trying to survive. Compare his posts d1, when he wasn't in any danger, to his posts today. He is trying really hard to justify any bandwagons he can hop on to save his own ass. Also look at how this retard wagon on bugs gained traction out of the blue. Even more reason to suspect we were right about ShiaoPi. Use your heads please. I believe that is the pattern he is talking about. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
On September 09 2012 16:33 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I got some internet for a while now (yes, internet issues are still in play, recently moved to the dorms of my university, so I am not guaranteed network access at the moment). Also reading through the thread, looks like I am now on Hapa's hitlist, joy! 1) I know that my play is off from my town games take it or leave it right now when I am saying that I am town (yet again). 2)I still have internet issues, see above also I am in a stupid timezone (HKT) compared to you. I either have to stay up late or wake up early in order to catch the last of the US-timezones discussing, mostly I don't make it, did stay up once and felt trashed afterwards, so no not willing to repeat that. If that is not enough for you to explain my "meta"-switch, can't do more. Onto something else though... I said I'll take another look at maverick and what strikes me as odd is the focus he has on lurkers, while I can agree that this game has a shitton of lurkers (counting myself as well) it is pretty "normal" for a large game to have them around. One should take a look at the (even if few) posts the lurkers have in order to search for scum motivation/anti-town behaviour. Mav does not do it though, for him he has the simple equation of lurker=scum. There is quite the disconnect between this argument and his own behaviour as I would count him into the lurkers as well, so shouldn't he step up his game to fulfill his perception of good town play? Also looking back into d1 there is quite some amount of soft-defending towards Mattchew within his filter, e.g.: + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 13:17 Maverick32x wrote: Hey guys- got a chance to catch up and I have a couple thoughts. First- Not totally comfortable voting Mattchew at this point.. I understand the potential for lying about the role claim.. and I'm not a big fan of role claiming in general... HOWEVER- I'd like to reiterate BlackMamba's post that said something to the tune of "ITT- Townies arguing with Townies" because I find that people are so quick to blame each other for stupid stuff that we end up wasting the first couple days with literally zero reason for voting someone besides "They drew a picture".... That being said- I'd like to draw a little bit of attention to the first voter for whom I feel like I can make an actual observation on- Toadesstern. The reason I want to focus on that is just because of the speed at which he strikes out just makes me wonder why that's beneficial from a town perspective? And I'm just wondering if he just wanted to try to promote chaos right away?? Also- consistently attacking other posters seems to be a trend.... On September 05 2012 00:41 Maverick32x wrote: Well, I must of skimmed past the FoS on me from Bill Murray, so I'll weigh in a bit. The reason I was hesitant to jump on Matt was because 'bad play' doesn't equal Scum play. And our goal is to hunt Scum, not hunt bad players. That being said, lying goes a bit beyond 'bad' and starts to seem more scummy. @Broodking- I re-read your post like 10 times and I have no idea what point you're trying to make... He also claims to be really focused on scumhunting instead of "looking good" + Show Spoiler + On September 07 2012 10:14 Maverick32x wrote: I don't even know what Dwarf Fortress Mafia is?? How is that relevant? And yes- I acknowledge I defended Matt because I had no reason NOT to. He had just made a post and a couple people started to jump on him about it. I honestly would not of voted him if Palmer didn't say that NN were not self-aware. I'm not too concerned with 'looking better' but rather trying to scum hunt and win. but his "cases" until now has been this single post: + Show Spoiler + On September 07 2012 10:11 Maverick32x wrote: Okay, got through everyone's filters, so lets label some of the lurkers just to make sure we're aware: Hopeless1der, Shady Sands, ShiaoPi, and honestly I'd like to put Austinmcc in there too just cause his posts are useless.. but meh Okay, Obviously my read above on Forumite still stands- but I'm going to focus on DoYouHas for this next post. He randomly decides that Bill Murray must die right away. No idea why this was important for him to post- and to be honest Bill Murray is suspicious in his own ways (not to de-rail, but a lot of one sentence responses, fluctuating 'lists' of scum etc) So my sense is that this is a way to just accuse a peer early on, knowing that it won't stick. And of course it doesn't, because he quickly /unvotes that so quickly that it doesn't even make sense why he would do it in the first place. The majority of DoYouHas's posts involve meta game. Starting right at the start its his 'friend' who wanted him to vote, and people are playing as their 'meta' which he frequently refers to. We're looking at a definite Matt lynch, and he knows it, and even states it... why wouldn't he get behind that vote? He then jumps to Hopeless1der as his next target. He just appears far too sure of himself that Hopeless is voting scum for a townie- considering his entire case is built around it. His defense involves his own meta!! This leads me to believe that he is very aware of the 'meta' in the game, and is actively trying to fit whatever he views as 'usual' for him when he is town. So there you have it!! My top 2 reads currently. I am not impressed at all. Furthermore adding up to his shady behaviour, we have this little exchange between him and me: As soon as I am asking him some questions he feels uncomfortable with, he says this: Ignoring my questions (still is btw) alltogether. After we mislynch BKE, it's straight up, back to the lurkers, no mention of DYH or Forumite which were suspicions of him before. I don't know if you can see town motivation behind his play, I certainly don't, mav is scum, so shoot him tonight or lynch him tomorrow. Probably won't have internet again before the deadline passes so yeah, that's it from me. ShiaoPi is decisive and open about his reads in LVII. He has good arguments and he seems convinced about his cases. Compare that to this game: On December 04 2012 00:24 ShiaoPi wrote: hai bandwagon much? Anyway, let me first write up what I wanted to yesterday but could not get to before defending myself from bugs. Catching up to the thread I am gonna scratch pretty much all of what I had yesterday. I am going to comment on some of the remaining players now, with a reread of the thread: BH: Fuck what I said, I am leaning town on him now. Zealos: I would like to get rid of him as he is just a useless lurking piece of space at the moment. His saving grace is firstly that there are better lynches today and secondly (and more importantly) he got voted by VE. While VE is scum and therefore his votes are much more likely to end up on townies (see later in the day with DP and DYH) I don't feel like just taking his filter as 100%-foolproof evidence, heck he softdefended me and I am fucking town. Xatalos: This is more or less where it gets interesting. Before the reread I had a scumread on him, this is largely due to the fact that he has an incredibly annoying (to me) way to express his thoughts, convoluted to no end, e.g.: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2012 22:46 Xatalos wrote: I can somewhat relate to your reasons for voting DP... Although they're still narrow-minded reasons, they're not necessarily scummy reasons. Combined with my intuition telling me your late roleclaim wasn't any elaborate Mafia tactic (which it could possibly be, but I have problems believing it - Occam's razor points to the simpler explanation), I'm starting to lean slightly town on you. In addition, such heavy tunneling isn't really townish, but it's not an effective Mafia playstyle either. Mafia would rather leave their options open, not limit them willingly. What's a good point is that Mafia might have a roleblocker. If they roleblock you, we're back to square one and have to decide the truth of your roleclaim with what you've said, not with your power usage. In any case, you should claim your shot RIGHT before the deadline. Let's consider the options for Mafia if they don't have time to change their roleblock action based on your target: 1) They can roleblock you, preventing you from becoming a confirmed Vanilla Townie (after your shot has been used). But if you just shoot me or some other townie (and you're not a very threatening presence to Mafia in any case), it might be beneficial for Mafia to let the shot go through. They'd get rid of one townie and just lose one mislynch candidate. 2) They can skip using a roleblock or roleblock marvellosity instead (in case he didn't fakeclaim). This would make you a confirmed Vanilla Townie but potentially prevent marvellosity's night action and most of all likely kill 2 townies in a single night. If you claim your shot early, Mafia will have an easy time deciding their best course of action. If you do it at the deadline, Mafia will have to take a risk and decide their possible roleblock usage without information about your target. Although I guess it has to be me after all this tunneling, which kind of makes me hope you're fakeclaiming, but you never know. Reading the exchange between WBG and BH, I'm starting to lean on WBG being town and BH being Mafia. WBG's reasoning is coherent and townish, but BH looks like he's just dodging issues and ignoring facts while doing what he decided beforehand (pushing the lynch to DP, next up DYH). What's even weirder is the contradiction between his earlier and later playstyle: at first he swinged his vote around for the smallest reasons, but then he wouldn't budge from getting DP lynched no matter what. Where did this confidence suddenly come from, considering his earlier wishy-washiness? And even with his arguments being repeatedly refuted? I'm just getting more and more suspicious of BH the more I think about it. this entire post can be summed up into this: -I think you are town DYH, because of the reasons for tunneling you just shared and the late claim -Please claim your shot just before deadline to avoid too much chance for mafia to interfere, oh and wifom -I am getting a townread on WBG and BH leans scum to me or his last post: + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2012 23:59 Xatalos wrote: I guess that's a fair assumption, but not foolproof. For example, I bussed my scumbuddy hard in a previous game although I wasn't in any immediate danger - just to gain towncred and win the game with that. And VE didn't even BUS Zealos, he just throwed a vote at him and easily changed it away from him. I think that's very possibly just some distancing, not necessarily bussing or genuine lynch effort. Even so, I agree that VE's comment on ShiaoPi was much more suspicious than his vote for Zealos. VE seemed pretty reluctant to even talk about ShiaoPi, and he was especially uncomfortable with the thought of lynching ShiaoPi. The obvious explanation is that ShiaoPi is Mafia, although it's only a piece of circumstantial evidence. Still, combined with ShiaoPi's clear background role and lack of effort to achieve anything, he's definitely a good lynch candidate. It just hurts to look at it imo, the information within the post is so little in relation to the lengt Look through Xata's filter, it's full of elaborate stuff without a real conclusion/course of action. This is a clear scumtell in my eyes, no need for that much fluff if you are contributing. There are also a lot of "cases" which he never followed up entirely in a committing way. The problem I have with a potential scum-Xata is that he is making sense. Also he did not jump on the marv bandwagon d1, something I think scum would have loved to do, having a real chance to get a really good player mislynched d1. Conclusion on Xata, null leaning slightly in the red. Just because I mentioned DYH in my post before, he is confirmed town to me, I don't buy shenanigans with scum shooting themselves and stuff. Now on to the good stuff: Keirathi Obviously my changed read on BH is important for a red kei. but let's start from looking at ace: -He has been dickish, trolly and unhelpful, not exactly a scumtell but it adds to the entire picture. -What makes me wonder is especially the parts in his filter with "shiao/debears/DYH"-interaction and "shiao/VE/DP"-interaction. I do not remember having thoroughly interacted much with DYH, there were some questions from debears which I answered, also I did not interact with VE/DP in a remarkable kind of way. So I have no clue where he got this from, conclusions he does not read the thread thoroughly and makes shit up as he goes to appear contributing. Moving on to Kei now, While I initially agreed with a lot of his points against BH, I was also in the game from the beginning. Now with a clear reread I do not read BH as scummy anymore, from someone who replaces in I would expect him to have a clear mindset as well and I believe Keirathi to be a good enough player to be able to come to the same conclusion as I did. The entire amount of tunneling onto BH as an "easy" target seems to me like an attempt to just derail the entire thread into bascially the same discussion we had at the end of d1. Also the complete disregard for anything else, why? Cuz scum! ##vote: Keirathi Before I forget it, honorable mention to Lazermonkey, get out of your lurkhole and do something, you are pretty much up next right after Kei! Really... "He's tunneling BH. Why? Cuz scum." That's basically what his case is there. He doesn't even sound convinced himself! I get the feeling he's just throwing his vote at someone to appear to be scumhunting. Then there's this post: On December 04 2012 23:37 ShiaoPi wrote: So you seriously want to lynch me off a single mention by VE sandroba? What the fuck is wrong with all of you? I can't help but feel that this is a post by a cornered and panicking Mafia. Granted, it's only a feeling, but the tone of it is so aggressive that it would fit a Mafia being cornered and starting to crack under the pressure. It's nothing decisive, of course, but I tend to give some weight to how I feel about tone differences in posts. | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
On December 04 2012 20:11 Lazermonkey wrote: BH I see you got a town read on ShiaoPi. Or at least not a scum read as of yet. Like I said earlier, I think his interactions with VE aren't very telling because VE could've tricked us hard anyway. However, as I wrote in my case earlier, what do you think about the fact that he basically always have been attacking the person that is under the most pressure, always jumping off the person when there are noone left chasing him? And I also don't think his reasons for chasing these persons have been super strong. Long story short, I have scum reads on both Shiao and WBG, why should I vote WBG over Shiao? WBG is way scummier of course. Lazer read my case on him. Then read BH's case. Way better than any ShiaoPi case out there | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
On December 04 2012 22:08 Lazermonkey wrote: EBWOP: Obviously that isn't always the case. If someone is suuuper scummy D1 and then gets replaced you want to look into the replacement alot. But I don't think that is the case with Ace. Ace was trying to shut me down hard everytime I made some sort of substantial comment. There is no town motive in that whatsoever | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
What made that 180°-turn from this: On another topic, I like your analysis of Ace/Keirathi. I haven't quite had him as a scumread at any point, but not as a townread either. Ace's weird "X/Y/Z interaction" posts and Keirathi's pure focus on BH aren't looking good. It's hard to judge a replacement player, but nothing in either of their filters screams "town!", and that's suspicious in itself. to Really... "He's tunneling BH. Why? Cuz scum." That's basically what his case is there. He doesn't even sound convinced himself! I get the feeling he's just throwing his vote at someone to appear to be scumhunting. I can't even comprehend this at all. also your last thing about emotions and stuff is utter trash, I am reacting the way I am since you guys are fucking retarded to lynch me over bugs..... | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
On December 04 2012 23:47 sandroba wrote: Adressing points on debears case: 1) WBG defended DP, but didn't care DYH was lynched. I would have mislynched DYH 100% D1 if not for his vigi claim. As I've stated before I thought his case on xatalos was utter bullshit and was very convinced of this guy being scum before replacing in. It doesn't surprise me that WBG didn't care if DYH got lynched instead of DP, which he had a town read on. Now as to why he didn't push DYH instead of going for marv I don't know, but I have to admit that marv's claim was pretty sketchy and I had to think real hard before determining he was likely town. "I am DT" in the middle of D1 with slight pressure on him, followed by "I might not be sane" after people start unvoting him looks suspicious as fuck, specially when you are biased because the dude is being a dick in the thread. For mafia it would make way more sense and be way easier to simply ignore marv and try to get into one of the main alternate wagons. Since you say WBG had no qualms lynching DYH why would he not as mafia simply jump on his wagon instead of trying to get marv lynched. Surely you can imagine the backlash he would suffer once marv flipped DT. 2)Vote on marv I adressed this on the block above. 3)Bunch of random facts stating facts and saying that they are scummy does not make it so. 'nuff said 4)bunch of random facts see above 5) Meta comparison to mad men I thought he was mafia on mad men. I then learned he wasn't. Your comparison is good for proving he is likely town this game though. You see, wbg and erandor had a much closer relationship than you-him. WBG expected erandor to identify he is town and got pissed off and raged in the thread. Simillar to how he expects better of marv and raged in the thread/assumed he was scum for playing like shit D1. The fact that he didn't adress your points can be explained by how he doesn't know your play/doesn't expect much from you and sees no needs to adress a case that has no traction. I doesn't mean he is auto mafia for ignoring you, sorry. 6) claims meta is the same even if you say it isn't yes. so? exactly | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
1) Hard defending someone day 1 2) Flipping shit on the town when he gets lynched when 1) you weren't there for the lynch (playing DOTA of all things) 2) You had your vote parked on someone who wasn't getting lynched 3) The other person up for lynch was one vote away 4) you had a null read on the 2nd lynch candidate | ||
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