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On December 05 2012 06:18 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 06:13 DoYouHas wrote:
Whichever direction the lynch goes today, I think we are going to kill town. I'm moving my vote to Shiaopi simply because I'm less willing to sacrifice bugs than him to make you realize that you are all off track.
Lazer is scum. BH, my reasons for voting Lazer are not lazy. I came to the same conclusion from looking into both the voting patterns and VE's filter. I was ready to rethink my assumptions when I was filtering WBG and VE. Indeed, I did exactly that for both Keirathi and WBG. BUT, my conviction on Lazer was only strengthened. BH classified my analysis of VE's posting on Lazer to be 'soft defending'. This makes me wonder if he even read it. The ONLY mention that could be construed that way was the first one where Lazer made a generalization about people's behavior and VE responded with "truth". It was a nothing interaction, not soft defending, and I classified it as such.
Hypothetical - If I was to come out with a PBPA on Lazer now, what would happen? You all would ignore me even more than you are now because you would assume I was tunneling Lazer, just like I tunneled Xata. I gave you the evidence that convinced me, and you are all fools to ignore it.
It is time to wake up and smell the coffee town, neither of our candidates today are scum. And in true BH style, I will eat my hat if I'm wrong.
##Unvote Lazermonkey
##Vote Shiaopi HYPOTHETICAL LAND. You're scum this game. WBG is town. WBG and sandroba are both vets with solid scumhunting credentials. sandroba not a lynch option, because he looks townie. Aren't you going to make the play to try and get WBG lynched? If that's true, in the same way we've looked at "someone voting for x probably scum," there is almost certainly scum on WBG if he's town. Saves you an early NK on someone you were going to have to get rid of, and you let town do most of the heavy lifting. Do you agree with that thought process, that scum would be delighted to mislynch town WBG today? If so, who, out of the folks on WBG, do you think is scum?
FOLLOW UP TO THIS
I know I mentioned Zealos and ShiaoPi D1. A couple other folks mentioned ShiaoPi D1 as looking off/being absent/whatever.
ShiaoPi is exactly the kind of candidate I'd be pushing if I were scum today. There were some mild comments about him D1, you know he doesn't look great, you just have to tip things over the edge. I think that given D1, ShiaoPi would be the easiest mislynch to push (One of the main vote-getters from D1 appears to be an honest-to-goodness vigi, a possible mislynch may be modkilled, lazermonkey would be your real other option if you didn't want to whip up a frenzy on an altogether new target). That's one reason I'm not comfrotable with ShiaoPi today.
(btw Keirathi, that's exactly what scumAustin would have done today, followed up on ShiaoPi D1 suspicions by lining him up for a mislynch (if he's town)).
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On December 05 2012 06:18 Keirathi wrote:
@austin:
You seem to be hung up on WBG fighting with marv. Did you go read Rockband?
I believe I know marv as well as probably almost anyone on TL. If he gets in a fight in thread with someone, and thinks they are scum, he would be yelling about it up and down. The fact that he didn't call WBG scum even once says that marv thought WBG was town, and that they were just bashing egos against each other.
Now, I certainly don't think marv's reads are infallible, but at the very least it gives me pause to voting WBG. Marv is quick to call someone scum who does something he thinks is scum motivated, even if he changes his mind later. Do you think, as an outside observer of the fight, you have better insight into WBG's motives than who he was fighting with? I haven't re-read rockband, but I'm not going to right now (sorry, just too much going on).
I don't super care that marv didn't have a scumread on WBG. (1) WBG was pretty invisible D1, for reasons that are fine by me and that marv didn't take massive offense to, so it's not like there was a whole lot to go on. (2) I think, as an outside observer, that I may have better insight, yeah. I'm worried about particular past games that WBG has been involved in, both with his poking at marv and with his disbelief of marv's claim (which he still hasn't fully explained).
I do not know if marv was thinking about those two particular things at the time, especially given that he was probably still a little miffed about being, as he saw it, forced to claim.
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On December 05 2012 06:25 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 06:18 austinmcc wrote:On December 05 2012 06:13 DoYouHas wrote:
Whichever direction the lynch goes today, I think we are going to kill town. I'm moving my vote to Shiaopi simply because I'm less willing to sacrifice bugs than him to make you realize that you are all off track.
Lazer is scum. BH, my reasons for voting Lazer are not lazy. I came to the same conclusion from looking into both the voting patterns and VE's filter. I was ready to rethink my assumptions when I was filtering WBG and VE. Indeed, I did exactly that for both Keirathi and WBG. BUT, my conviction on Lazer was only strengthened. BH classified my analysis of VE's posting on Lazer to be 'soft defending'. This makes me wonder if he even read it. The ONLY mention that could be construed that way was the first one where Lazer made a generalization about people's behavior and VE responded with "truth". It was a nothing interaction, not soft defending, and I classified it as such.
Hypothetical - If I was to come out with a PBPA on Lazer now, what would happen? You all would ignore me even more than you are now because you would assume I was tunneling Lazer, just like I tunneled Xata. I gave you the evidence that convinced me, and you are all fools to ignore it.
It is time to wake up and smell the coffee town, neither of our candidates today are scum. And in true BH style, I will eat my hat if I'm wrong.
##Unvote Lazermonkey
##Vote Shiaopi HYPOTHETICAL LAND. You're scum this game. WBG is town. WBG and sandroba are both vets with solid scumhunting credentials. sandroba not a lynch option, because he looks townie. Aren't you going to make the play to try and get WBG lynched? If that's true, in the same way we've looked at "someone voting for x probably scum," there is almost certainly scum on WBG if he's town. Saves you an early NK on someone you were going to have to get rid of, and you let town do most of the heavy lifting. Do you agree with that thought process, that scum would be delighted to mislynch town WBG today? If so, who, out of the folks on WBG, do you think is scum? If I was scum, I wouldn't care which of those two got lynched. Killing Shiaopi won't make WBG's detractors go away or the other way around. WBG is the stronger scumhunter between the two, but arguments over him also occupy more thread space. Killing WBG gets him out of the way. Letting him live will hurt the day 3 discussion since we will keep arguing over him like a dog with a bone.
I think I find this really townie. Highly unlikely that we had both a faked vigishot and a quick response like this.
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On December 05 2012 06:27 MrZentor wrote:
I like how Keirathi is just blindly defending WBG.
Scum buddies?
I actually don't think so.
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MrZentor...I feel like you have a reputation that precedes you, and yet you're not really playing like I expected this game.
It's not scummy, but it's weirding me out. I thought you were going to be entirely unhelpful and scummy as either alignment.
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To some extent here Keirathi, you're ... not backing up far enough.
Part of your argument here is that you know Marv well enough to know that he didn't think WBG was scum during N1. Yes, you've got some reason to think that, but you've also got to understand you're two generations removed.
You're relying on yourself being able to interpret marv's actions/thoughts. You're also relying on marv's thoughts being correct. Doesn't mean that your arguments shouldn't be given weight, but you need to recognize that you're stringing two possibilities together here in order to get to your argument, and we can't be certain about either.
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On December 05 2012 06:47 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 06:44 austinmcc wrote:
To some extent here Keirathi, you're ... not backing up far enough.
Part of your argument here is that you know Marv well enough to know that he didn't think WBG was scum during N1. Yes, you've got some reason to think that, but you've also got to understand you're two generations removed.
You're relying on yourself being able to interpret marv's actions/thoughts. You're also relying on marv's thoughts being correct. Doesn't mean that your arguments shouldn't be given weight, but you need to recognize that you're stringing two possibilities together here in order to get to your argument, and we can't be certain about either. I'm not relying on marv's thoughts being correct, I'm relying on them giving reasonable doubt to a WBG lynch to push the person that I actually think is scum: ShiaoPi. Do you not agree with me (or sandroba for that matter), that ShiaoPi has basically blended in for as long as he could, sheeping onto all of the major bandwagons?
There's been some blending in/low activity.
I see him poking at BH D1, voting BH. I don't see him jump on marv when marv pops up (and felt enough pressure that he claimed). I don't see him jumping on DYH. I don't see him jumping on DP. Some of that is absence, but he ABSOLUTELY doesn't "sheep onto all of the major bandwagons" D1. When he returns, he does not that he's watching marv and DYH (weren't we all?), and that he's concerned about BH and xatalos.
Then today I see him on you at first, later swapping to WBG. His last post is something that jumps out at me:On December 05 2012 01:06 ShiaoPi wrote:Hey Xata, What made that 180°-turn from this: Show nested quote +On another topic, I like your analysis of Ace/Keirathi. I haven't quite had him as a scumread at any point, but not as a townread either. Ace's weird "X/Y/Z interaction" posts and Keirathi's pure focus on BH aren't looking good. It's hard to judge a replacement player, but nothing in either of their filters screams "town!", and that's suspicious in itself. to Show nested quote +Really... "He's tunneling BH. Why? Cuz scum." That's basically what his case is there. He doesn't even sound convinced himself! I get the feeling he's just throwing his vote at someone to appear to be scumhunting. I can't even comprehend this at all. also your last thing about emotions and stuff is utter trash, I am reacting the way I am since you guys are fucking retarded to lynch me over bugs.....
LOOK AT THIS KEIRATHI.
Here is a dude who is set to be lynched. He is one of TWO candidates for today. He had a scumread on you earlier, and was watching Xatalos after D1. Instead of piling on WBG, instead of defending himself further, what's he doing. He's scumhunting, in a way that's not related to today's lynch and that shows he's trying to solve the game rather than stay alive.
He's wondering why one suspect he had has suddenly changed a read on a player he's also suspicious of, based on ShiaoPi's own posting.
I actually really think that post looks townie, in that he's still trying to get a read on Xatalos and figure Xatalos out.
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Wait do we really have two claims of mason pairs?
WBG or MrZ want to confirm these pairings?
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I have to leave work, will be back on in 20 or so. This got interesting...
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HEY EVERYONE. WE ARE PLAYING PARANOIA MAFIA. IT IS A CLOSED SETUP. WE HAVE HAD NINE BILLION POWER ROLES CLAIMED.
I actually BELIEVE that our masons are masoned. Ta da. But everyone needs to remember, being a mason =/= being TOWN. Stop saying they are confirmed townies, stop thinking that way, because we don't know. Scum masons happen. Cults happen. There is absolutely no reason to believe that our masons have to be town, so knock it off.
Given that the game is PARANOIA mafia, and we've got 4.5 billion mason pairs now...I actually think it's far more likely that one or both mason pairs could be scum/town than it is that they're all town, or one pair is fakeclaiming. That's way too risky when scum already lost VE, no way they put 2 members in harm's way.
At this point, gut feeling, Keirathi is town, WBG is scum, and they ARE masons.
There is absolutely no reason to believe that masons have to be town. Same way we can't be sure DYH is a vigi, or a TOWN vigi at that.
GRATUITOUS USE OF CAPSLOCK LYNCH WBG.
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In no way does that seal the deal. That tells us that
IF Keirathi is telling the truth
THEN Keirathi is blue, town, and a mason.
It tells us absolutely nothing about WBG's alignment.
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Again, more caps. The game is PARANOIA MAFIA. The intro says NOT TO TRUST STUFF (see marv's maybe questioning his sanity).
So far, there has been no paranoia. Nothing out of the ordinary that would make a closed setup interesting. Mason pairs that cross alignments are absolutely something that could make a closed setup interesting, and absolutely something that could create paranoia.
ESPECIALLY with two mason pairs. What if one is town/mafia and the other is town/town. Or town/mafia and mafia/mafia. 4 confirmable townies, not just that, but townies that can talk to each other outside thread and share ideas and become super scumhunting machines (seriously, if you haven't been a mason, it's RIDICULOUSLY strong) seems like way too much. Those are exactly the sorts of scenarios that create paranoia.
If we lynch WBG and he's town...WHAT DO WE DO. Maybe keirathi is lying, maybe one of MrZ and BH is mafia, WHO KNOWS!!!! If we lynch him and he's mafia...WHAT DO WE DO. Maybe keirathi is telling the truth, maybe none/one/both of MrZ and BH are mafia, WHO KNOWS!!!
That's paranoia. That fits this game. Plus...seriously, WBG totes mafia.
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On December 05 2012 07:43 Blazinghand wrote:
We're not doing this by PM highlighting. Kei and WBG scum together. Lynch scum.
For realsies. We already know that PMs are highlighted differently based on claims/flips (or we can assume that).
Remember debears thinking he'd broke the game because of how the PMs were written?
I assume that was related to this in a way and I don't think it's something we can use.
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I don't think Keirathi is mafia.
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On December 05 2012 07:48 Blazinghand wrote:
Keirathi claimed mason with WBG and they're the two scummiest players in the game. There's no way we're the scum pair, they are almost certainly the scum pair, austin.
I am currently not of the mind that there's a "scum pair."
I imagine there's more than 0, and less than 4, scum between you guys.
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I guess I could also see
"wait guys, we're not masons. I'm actually a vigi" just to balance out GSL3?
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FOR EVERYONE. REGARDLESS OF LYNCH, here's some good information/advice.
On April 10 2012 07:44 Ace wrote:
From now on every game of Mafia you ever play THIS is what you will do:
Open up a new file in Notepad. If you don't know how, go to "Start" in Windows. Go to "All Programs". Find Notepad, or NotePad++. Click on it. It will open. Trust me.
List every player in the game. As you read the thread, make little notes next to their name in chronological order.
You can also make a seperate column or new partition on the page to list KNOWN facts. This would be roleclaims, mod confirmed information, players' stances, and alignment flips.
Do this again but list it as MOST LIKELY information. This above all else will change all the time. This includes your current reads on everyone's alignments along information you can infer about people's roles based on the thread and the mechanics of the game.
Now all you have to do is read the game. Even if you aren't able to keep multiple lines of thought running in your head at least you'll always have a place to start tracking what you need to win as Town/Mafia every time you wake up. Remember my motto: Keep It Simple.
It's from Death Factory 2, a heavily themed game with a closed setup and a lot of odd roles/mechanics. Game. Full Wrap-Up Post.
It is becoming pretty darn apparent that we cannot assume some things we would in a normal game. We don't know scum numbers. We don't know scum KP. We don't know how many factions are in the game. We don't know if ANY of these roles correspond to a particular alignment. EVERYONE needs to throw all those thoughts out immediately, and really split things up into what we KNOW and what is MOST LIKELY.
We are going to miss things if we assume we know things we don't. We are going to mislynch more than we would otherwise if we assume we know things we don't.
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On December 05 2012 07:54 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 07:50 austinmcc wrote:On December 05 2012 07:48 Blazinghand wrote:
Keirathi claimed mason with WBG and they're the two scummiest players in the game. There's no way we're the scum pair, they are almost certainly the scum pair, austin. I am currently not of the mind that there's a "scum pair." I imagine there's more than 0, and less than 4, scum between you guys. How convenient that we would have to kill 3-4 of them in order to confirm your theory. Scumlist: Lazermonkey, austinmcc, zealos/xata
I don't want to kill masons to confirm my theory.
I want to actually play this game, without caring whether someone's a mason or not, because that has no bearing on their actual alignment. I want to lynch SCUM based on them being SCUMMY. I don't want to lynch masons because "maybe some masons are scum," nor have I ever advocated that.
I think WBG is scum because I think he's scummy. I think Keirathi is maybe town, independent of his being a mason. BH and MrZ I'm more uncertain on. But I don't give two hoots that they're masons, I care whether they are townie or scummy, and I care what they actually do in game.
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On December 05 2012 08:21 debears wrote:
Dis game
......
Got interesting.
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EPT
