| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 11 2012 01:30 Promethelax wrote: Austin, you were in WLIIA, right? On October 29 2012 04:27 iGrok wrote: Signups
Replacements I was not. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 11 2012 01:41 Promethelax wrote: oop, never mind, sorry. Did you red it? (this is relevant) No. Almost all recent games up until Whose Line and Mario Mini I read, but I actually have no read those two. I took a short break and missed them. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
| ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 11 2012 01:56 Promethelax wrote: it is not all that important if you haven't read it. I can explain my reasoning though. In WLIIA a scum (SnB) took an early lead by fake claiming a town power role but because of the mechanics had to fake a lot of his abilities. He did this by claiming useless checks, tracking the players who died at night, etc. I think Acro has done a very similar thing here in terms of the use of his powers (they have been sub-optimal in terms of the numbers of dead players checked) and I thought that you not calling him scum was weird since there was a recent example of just that play. Since you haven't read the game though it doesn't help. For you, Chronicler, anyone else who was wondering why I haven't called acro scum (recently) and am advocating my lynch choice for today as actually lynching a third party: On November 19 2012 09:43 GreYMisT wrote: Factions and win conditions At some point in the game Lavos will be summoned. The powers and nature of Lavos are hidden until 1999 AD. Win conditions are based around Lavos. Lavos will spawn at a predetermined time in the game. If all mafia die, Lavos will be summoned immediately. Town: Defeat Lavos. Mafia: Kill ALL town and have 1 mafia left alive Third Party: you thought i was going to tell you? haha. OP says there's a third party. One player has claimed third party. No other player has. As interesting as it would be for another third party player to slow roll this, knowing that the acro/hopeless parity check meant one of them was scum, that person hasn't come forward on the last day of the game, more or less. If there were another third party, they'd step up this cycle and say something. Nobody is, so I'm convinced Acro actually IS third party. I know that "hey guys lynch a third party, not me" isn't as compelling as me offering a solid case on someone who's red. But...it's what I've got. You guys can mislynch me, or you can lynch the one guy we KNOW isn't town. p.s. wise old men, etc. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 11 2012 02:03 Keirathi wrote: I don't know what you expect from a town austin, but accusing him for going after the 3rd party is silly. Not that I particularly want to lynch Acro either, but "I think you're scum. Go prove that you aren't by finding scum for us because I'm too lazy and don't feel like looking at anyone except you" is silly. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 11 2012 02:08 Oatsmaster wrote: I really dont see your point of reposting that austin. Also blue bolded? Again, since when is lynching 3rd party better than someone who almost everyone thinks is scum? READ MY POSTS. READ THE THREAD. READ. IT IS GOOD TO READ. IT IS BETTER TO LYNCH SOMEONE WHO IS 3RD PARTY THAN SOMEONE WHO ALMOST EVERYONE/50% + 1 PEOPLE/EVERYONE/WHATEVER THINKS IS SCUM WHEN THAT PERSON IS ACTUALLY TOWN. Just because you guys don't know I'm town like I do doesn't mean the above sentence is wrong. Your argument is that it's better to mislynch than to lynch a third party, just because of the belief that the mislynched player is scum. That is absolutely false and it's ridiculous. You feel very much like you want to lynch me , but are relying on particularly poor logic, like above. You admit that you don't have any reads beyond me, that there's nobody you'd want to lynch if you knew I was town, and yet you attack me for taking the same position. Because it's important to me, I'm going to repeat this. Your argument is that it's better to mislynch a townie than to lynch a third party, so long as people believe the mislynched player is scum. It's not. It never will be. If I'm going to get lynched, at least let it be by rational and logical people. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 11 2012 02:09 Keirathi wrote: Apparently I say silly more than I thought. It is a word that describes this situation. BUT NOT EVEN MY SILLY ARGUMENT IS WORKING. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 11 2012 02:45 Acrofales wrote: What I get from austin since my post: 1. I am in fact 3P (thank you, my role pm agrees with you). 2. Nobody else looks like scum. Therefore we should lynch 3P. Why, when we have obvious scum sitting right in front of us? I will simply repeat myself until the rest of town figures this out: austinmcc has not addressed the fact that he was not looking past preventing himself getting lynched by making a case on the ONLY person who he could possibly get town to switch to. He did not bother figuring out how his role worked, despite calling it scummy when SnB did not do that exact same thing. He cannot explain why the shield on Hapa appears to not have existed. He knows the rest of town has caught him out. He knows any case he makes on anybody else will look forced, because it WILL be forced (they're town after all). His only hope is to lynch the 3P. Now me being a survivor obviously has me with a vested interest in surviving, but even without that, it is clear that austin is scum. He's run out of rocks to hide under and that is about it. He first threw the towel in the ring with his wise men post, but rather than continuing to blazinghand up the thread in hilarious manner, he took the lifeline Oats threw him. Oh, and if you think I will be no help vs. Lavos, my 100 damage is worth 4 cycles of most townies being alive. I think I will more than pay for myself. I don't need your heals, I still have oodles of hitpoints. Rawr. I made a case on the guy that I read as scummy. I did not make a case on the people that I don't read as scummy. This is bad apparently. Yes, I did not ask what's up in 1999. I asked whether I could heal/shield myself (I can't), and I asked whether the shield was permanent or just blocked damage for one cycle. I did not ask this other question. You can say that not asking that question shows that I'm not caring about the future, but I think it's pretty clear I am. I'm actively concerned with your wincon when others aren't. I'm...I guess doing what I can about trying to make people think about what the remaining last scum could be/could have (That isn't much, because it's just making stuff up, but at the very least people need to get out of the mindset that they know everything...because we don't). And while yes, you claim to be able to do 100 damage and you claim you'll use that on lavos, we have no proof of either of those things. Same as you have no proof that I can do 300 damage with a shot, although I'd have to get hit first. If I were throwing in the towel with the wise men post, I wouldn't be making an effort. Silly lynches get silly responses, and I enjoy playing this game, and silly responses are one way to enjoy playing the game while getting lynched again. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 11 2012 03:25 kitaman27 wrote: If this were true and I were the last remaining scum, there wouldn't have been any factional KP 2 cycles ago when I healed iamperfection.Austin, unfortunately you’re at a point where the town cares more about ending the game, than identifying the final scum player. I could have been convinced to help swing the lynch to Acro, but I disagree with your assessment that not submitting a night action last night was the correct action. Perhaps whoever has to carry out the factional kp can’t act. Nobody else claimed that heal. clarity and Drazerk both died. No townie has claimed shooting clarity Risk was lynched, so we were already down to 1. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Syllo not caring about the game at this point and wanting to reward non-town acro for helping town aren't the towniest thing ever, but (1) I don't think scum would wait so long to set someone up with the damage; and (2) Syllo was townie to everyone BEFORE the damage, no need to shoot him (wastes heals, but wastes KP to do so). So if the last scum is sitting pretty, it's not due to taking night damage (unless they had an exceptionally crazy plan with syllo. Someone add to/subtract from my list if it's off. People who were more or less "confirmed" town early on? prom chronicler oats keirathi That's more like a list of "people who aren't the ones we were suspicious of late" but those lists should be the same afaik. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Scummy on syllo early Scummy on djodref early Claims partial vengeful, good way to avoid getting killed Had the shared damage PM mishap with syllo Based on just basic stuff like that, I don't think he's the scum. While scum may have wanted to kill syllo early, the scum syllo train never seemed to get rolling. The vengeful claim is a nice way to keep people away, add a downside to trying to kill him. But the shared PM bit makes him town in my book. Both parties back up the change in numbers, which makes it far more likely they DID share damage than not. We haven't seen anything else that would share damage, so we can assume Prom does have that ability. He shared damage with syllo, or claims to have, and scum was clearly trying to KILL syllo. He could have shared with other targets or just kept going in general, and so it doesn't seem like a good play to share damage THAT LATE when they're actually trying to kill syllo. Easy way to "confirm" himself early - take a little bit of damage N1 or N2 on someone that looks town, but why wait so long into the game to make that move? Doesn't make sense, therefore town. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 11 2012 04:48 Acrofales wrote: We know that risk invited syllo and GK into the tent. Either he wanted to chat with syllo twice, or he wanted syllo with him to help control discussion in the mason chat.If you're going to try to remake my list post which was in the very case against you, why are you starting with the assumption that Syllo is telling the truth about damage taken? Three quarters of the town is confirmed because they have consistently backed up each other's actions. Not because they have claimed to have taken damage. In other news: I read Hapa's filter and find he actually looks townier than last time I checked. The only possible way I can see him being scum after going nuts at phagga last cycle, is if he is scum together with austin. In that case, I still prefer to lynch austin first. While austinmcc is making a valliant attempt, he is still scum. If they wanted to team up and try to control discussion, then why not pick a more influential player? Then push an agenda within the mason tent on the third guy. Moreover, if syllo were lying, we should be seeing more damage claims from GK unless risk absolutely wasn't sending in night actions. Possible, but again less likely than the alternative. If syllo is scum, then risk just didn't do much with his power AND we SHOULD have some kp missing from the night that syllo claimed to take a boatload. Sorry, while I wish he'd quit lynching me and would actually think about what might happen tomorrow, I'm not buying him as scum. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 11 2012 05:17 Acrofales wrote: Not really the point I was trying to make, but at least you end up with the right conclusion and your reasoning makes sense. The reason Syllo is town is because: 1. If he had been scum with Sandro, he could simply have withheld his scumread on Sandro and laughed their way to the bank on D1. 2. He put together a successful party. We have seen that party with Keirathi and a 3P fails. It seems impossible that Syllo is scum based on the D1 party. 3. He blew risk.nuke's mason chat wide open. If this was a scumplan, it was retarded. 4. He claimed watcher seeing SnB visit someone he shouldn't. Killing yet another scum. With all of this pretty much confirming Syllo as town, his damage claim sounds truthful. NOT the other way round. If you want, I can do this for all the people I marked as green in my list. Could save you about 350 pages of filters before you are forced to conclude that you, in fact, are the final scum. Blowing up the scum team is one thing that I'm looking for at this point, as dumb as it sounds. If nobody is obvious, or even remotely obvious, then someone has to be hidden. Stuff like harping on Sandro early and backing himself up with risk/SnB late is the kind of thing that fits what I'm looking for. But I don't like the damage and some of the other aspects for syllo in particular. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Keirathi Claims low success modifier (avoid being put in parties, avoid town seeing keirathi-parties fail) Maintained had to be in party to get powers (could account for some missing night actions if lying) Very concerned about parity checks If I just skim through filter, this post is...tiny and forgotten, but neat: On December 01 2012 09:08 Keirathi wrote: It was probably the QT link and team members. We still don't know what was missing from Toad's role PM. I heart me some speculation too, but...if you're looking for cracks in someone who seems townie, this is one of those times where it's possible someone has more information than they should. Keirathi comes out looking like the most likely candidate to me. Except that he WAS IN two parties and they succeeded. We don't know exactly how modifiers work, but people still took him and still succeeded. And this post feels genuinely frustrated: On November 30 2012 11:58 Keirathi wrote: Anddddd...That's why my role sucks and is boring. Literally every single person in the game thinks that I am town (or at least, no one has expressed otherwise), yet people still don't want to include me in parties. My abilities rely on my being in them. Otherwise, I'm just a VT. Hell, not even a VT; WORSE than a VT because people don't want to include me to parties even though they believe that I am town. Keirathi has the most little niggling questions, but ... reads as town. Actively trying to figure out what's going on, make reads, lightly push his own reads, townKeirathi-esque. And he's got the right read on me, so there's that. So...I don't like any of the people that weren't even in consideration yesterday for the gig. Which leaves me back at the people who have KP and some unexplained nights, and one of them being the guy? I guess I'll take another peek at them. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
| ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 11 2012 05:41 Acrofales wrote: Hmmrmm, I see I forgot about Keirathi on my list. I will have to go over his filter again. I had him down as town for a number of things: 1. He was on a successful party 2. The whole "low success modifier" was too weird for a fakeclaim when the OP explicitly states that the success modifier was hidden. His reaction at me made sense. 3. He claims he gets abilities from successful parties he's on. By being on the party he was able to jail syllo. Syllo claimed roleblocked and nobody counterclaimed. Other nights he claimed no abilities. Number 3 means that either scum has a roleblocker who only roleblocked once (all other blocks are claimed), or roleblocked people like CJ. There also seems to be less KP on N2 than on N1 or N3, making it likely that scum targeted Syllo while he was jailed. The rest of my town read on Keirathi was based on him not playing like scum. Also, Tata makes absolutely perfect sense for Keirathi's earlier claims. It is a hilarious troll role by Greymist. He was on one successful party and one unsuccessful. The low success modifier WAS a weird fakeclaim. We haven't seen other scum pms talking about success modifiers, so it's not even like scum would all know what theirs was. It's...a neat idea, but feels like a weird thing to fake, I agree. Number 3 is definitely possible. The scum version is that he's the guy who can RB, might actually be a scum JOAT and just didn't use that on other nights. One quality that the remaining scum member has to have is the ability to account for a variety of inconsistencies - there are all sorts of bits and pieces that STILL don't fit, afaik, even with things like "Oh yeah guys, I'm town and didn't tell you I could take 2 actions until just now? Oops." Something like a JOAT could fill in holes, but again...I agree that Keirathi has been playing like town, and like town-Keirathi specifically. He fits the bill for some reasons, but his play doesn't. With night actions though, he's right up there with Adam for "Nope, officer, I ain't done nothing on no nights. Wasn't me." As long as he CAN rb/jail someone, he could have done so for syllo. His only other claimed night action is a duplicate track, easy to fake. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I'm left thinking that my silly arguments have not been silly ENOUGH. You will remember that (1) Old dudes are wise and good at martial arts. Now it's time to reveal the following - (2) Leonardo DiCaprio is not an old dude; (3) I'm pretty sure Inception didn't end perfectly for him - either he's trapped in a dream or he got some friends shot or whatever. Point being, OLD DUDES GOOD, LEONARDO DiCAPRIO YOUNG AND BAD. Keirathi has claimed to be a child, pretty much the direct opposite of an old dude. I don't think he's scum, but as a child he's far less useful than I during lavos. Children are bad at martial arts (exception: children receiving extensive training from wise old dudes are good at martial arts). Anyway, the point of all that is that I have to go deeper. Leonardo DiCaprio failed to save the world or his friends or whatever was going on, but I'm old so I can do better. I will get sillier, and therefore somehow convince you of the silliness of this lynch. Silly-ception, if you will. Let's begin, cue the music. (1) I will note again that I am 3 old dudes. Not only wise and good at martial arts, but THREE of them. As far as I know, every other player has roleclaimed a single person/thing. That is 1/3 as useful as me. 1/3 the legs, 1/3 the arms. You are to me what someone with only 2/3 of a single nipple is to you (hopefully). Not only am I old, but THREE is more than ONE. Therefore, I shouldn't be the lynch based on math (and nipple density). I'm pretty sure robo doesn't even HAVE nipples. Simply put, however awesome your role is, or however townie you think you are, I'm 3x that amount. (2) Acro is banking on you believing that he has 100 KP he will use on Lavos every cycle. I have a 300 KP nuke, and as long as Lavos attacks me I can use it on him. That's 3 times his KP. If he's worth 4 townies of damage, I'm worth 13 (12 25-point townie increments + the 25 points of me being alive and not Acro). Not only am I worth 3+ times as many townies as Acro is in damage (assuming Lavos damages me), but I also, again, have more nipples. That's like...two mathematical superiorities right there (Reminder - two is more than one, so that's pretty much THREE ways I'm mathematically superior to keep around for lavos). (3) Today was magical rainbow shell day. I'm the dude who helps you craft stuff with rainbow shells in the game. My PM says nothing about it, but it's probably EXTREMELY BAD LUCK to kill me on the same day you might get a rainbow shell. Lavos is somewhat similar to a kraken --> gracken --> Idra. Everyone knows that if you beat Idra, it's not because you were skilled, you were probably lucky. Picking up EXTREMELY BAD LUCK before you fight lavos, who is similar to idra, who you need luck to kill, SEEMS LIKE A VERY BAD PLAN. I...I think that's all the stupidity I have remaining. I don't know if it's enough to counteract the stupidity of this lynch, but I may as well try. If those new arguments don't convince you, then gl with lavos and plox to win this one. I really hope we aren't screwed over because of acro or something else you guys (but not Keirathi and sometimes not iamperfection) missed in your bloodthirst to kill me. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Out of the folks under recent suspicion, the two that make the most sense are the ones that don't have a lot of actions accounted for. Adam, hapahauli (a lot of his actions are either protection on himself or claimed damage on people who died), goodkarma (I still don't know how the numbers would work out, but his charging could be a way to account for some of the actions wonkiness). | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
| ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
##self-destruct I'll be going now. Acro, enjoy getting lynched. The rest of you, enjoy the parting gift, and thanks for leaving me alive until the last cycle so you won't have time to recover before Lavos drops. It's been a ... (/sunglasses) ... blast. | ||
| ||
StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War Sea Dota 2 15505Flash 1486firebathero 624ggaemo  578Pusan  567Nal_rA 471Light 341Last 250Mong 235hero 129[ Show more ] Counter-Strike Heroes of the Storm Other Games Organizations Counter-Strike StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War |
|
WardiTV Invitational
Fire Grow Cup
Wardi Open
Monday Night Weeklies
PiGosaur Monday
PiG Sty Festival
Replay Cast
Code For Giants Cup
SOOP
ShoWTimE vs Clem
Tenacious Turtle Tussle
[ Show More ] |
|
|
EPT
