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On November 17 2012 00:57 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 00:50 Clarity_nl wrote:
They don't end well. I like sticking to solid logic rather than let emotions make decisions for you, and last minute shenanigans are just that, emotional decisions.
This would be my third game, kinda. I got modkilled for sending Rad a PM in my first game. Yeah but this creates confusion and it can be a great opportunity to catch scum. I think it would have been more difficult to find you last game if not for the Cheesecake situation which was also last minute. I think it's difficult for scum to fake emotional last minute decisions (I personally think that intuition and rationality still take a small part). How do you think we found you last game ?
I think I would've been lynched if it wasn't for the cheese stuff, he simply delayed it a day. My D1 play was piss poor.
I disagree with you though. Imagine Hapa flipping town, we wouldn't have much to go on. Scum can easily hide in chaos.
I think last game I actually managed to hide in the chaos.
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On November 17 2012 00:27 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 00:08 debears wrote:On November 17 2012 00:03 Clarity_nl wrote:
So why the 180 on me? Kickstart is cute? I remember you saying that about me in the last hour of night. Because of process of elimination makes you a top target. You and snb are my top targets. Djo I find you town @ debearsEven if I agree with your conclusion, your logic is wrong because thrawn was not around the lynch deadline. You cannot guess (and me neither) what he could have done in reaction to the sudden Hapa wagon. Were you sure that Hapa was going to get lynched when you switched your vote on him ?
Djo, if thrawn was scum, and hapa was gonna get lynched, I don't see any reason for him not to be there to switch his vote.
However, yes if thrawn was just not around as scum that is plausible. I find it unlikely but plausible
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On November 17 2012 00:58 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 00:27 Djodref wrote:On November 17 2012 00:08 debears wrote:On November 17 2012 00:03 Clarity_nl wrote:
So why the 180 on me? Kickstart is cute? I remember you saying that about me in the last hour of night. Because of process of elimination makes you a top target. You and snb are my top targets. Djo I find you town @ debearsEven if I agree with your conclusion, your logic is wrong because thrawn was not around the lynch deadline. You cannot guess (and me neither) what he could have done in reaction to the sudden Hapa wagon. Were you sure that Hapa was going to get lynched when you switched your vote on him ? Who would be sure? All I knew is that 3/4 others said they were down to switch right away and we all did immediately.
My point is that it was not enough at that time to change the outcome of the lynch. Kickstart switch was totally unexpected (@Kickstart - I know you made a case against Hapa during D1 but you didn't show any intention to switch at that time, correct me if I'm wrong). If one scum was in the early voters, it was a calculated risk for him and not such a big one. There was a risk to lynch Hapa but the reward was not to be on Z-Bo wagon for after a possible green flip.
I think our view differ so much because I didn't experience it live. I was not involved in the game at that time and I have only a cold thread to refer to. But still I think you shouldn't use such a hard logic regarding who lynched (or not saved) Hapa.
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On November 17 2012 01:01 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 00:27 Djodref wrote:On November 17 2012 00:08 debears wrote:On November 17 2012 00:03 Clarity_nl wrote:
So why the 180 on me? Kickstart is cute? I remember you saying that about me in the last hour of night. Because of process of elimination makes you a top target. You and snb are my top targets. Djo I find you town @ debearsEven if I agree with your conclusion, your logic is wrong because thrawn was not around the lynch deadline. You cannot guess (and me neither) what he could have done in reaction to the sudden Hapa wagon. Were you sure that Hapa was going to get lynched when you switched your vote on him ? Djo, if thrawn was scum, and hapa was gonna get lynched, I don't see any reason for him not to be there to switch his vote. However, yes if thrawn was just not around as scum that is plausible. I find it unlikely but plausible
Thrawn was around, my bad. I didn't see his post in all the spamming stuff 
Anyway, I have a good reason for any scum to not save Hapa at this time. Imagine you are scum, one of your teammate is under a lot of pressure (something like a last minute bandwagon against him at the end of D1), do you want to jump into the flames to save him and be the first one to be lynched when town finally flips him (because town eventually will if your partner escaped a lynch in extremis) or do you want to stab him in the back ?
I know you are the kind of "jumping into the flames" scum (Dandel Ion hard defense in NMM XIXX, I remember  ) but you know that it was bad play...
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I'll be around for a little longer but I'll be gone for the night. Might check in before going to bed at a reasonable hour.
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On November 17 2012 00:07 Hopeless1der wrote:
Are there any limitations on a Roleblocker's ability to target the same player repeatedly?
No.
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Votecount:
strongandbig (6): Kickstart, Clarity_nl, Blazinghand, debears, hopeless1der, Z-BosoN
Blazinghand (1): Djodref
Not voting (3): strongandbig, DarthPunk, iamperfection
Currently, strongandbig is set to be lynched! ~ 32 hours 45 minutes remaining in Day 1.
Full version:
+ Show Spoiler +strongandbig (6): Kickstart, Clarity_nl, Blazinghand, debears, Hopeless1der, Z-BosoN
Blazinghand (1): Djodref
Not voting (3): strongandbig, DarthPunk, iamperfection
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On November 17 2012 01:15 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 01:01 debears wrote:On November 17 2012 00:27 Djodref wrote:On November 17 2012 00:08 debears wrote:On November 17 2012 00:03 Clarity_nl wrote:
So why the 180 on me? Kickstart is cute? I remember you saying that about me in the last hour of night. Because of process of elimination makes you a top target. You and snb are my top targets. Djo I find you town @ debearsEven if I agree with your conclusion, your logic is wrong because thrawn was not around the lynch deadline. You cannot guess (and me neither) what he could have done in reaction to the sudden Hapa wagon. Were you sure that Hapa was going to get lynched when you switched your vote on him ? Djo, if thrawn was scum, and hapa was gonna get lynched, I don't see any reason for him not to be there to switch his vote. However, yes if thrawn was just not around as scum that is plausible. I find it unlikely but plausible Thrawn was around, my bad. I didn't see his post in all the spamming stuff Anyway, I have a good reason for any scum to not save Hapa at this time. Imagine you are scum, one of your teammate is under a lot of pressure (something like a last minute bandwagon against him at the end of D1), do you want to jump into the flames to save him and be the first one to be lynched when town finally flips him (because town eventually will if your partner escaped a lynch in extremis) or do you want to stab him in the back ? I know you are the kind of "jumping into the flames" scum (Dandel Ion hard defense in NMM XIXX, I remember ) but you know that it was bad play...
That was way different. That was not d1. Dandel was not our most important member <<<< I was. Also, Dandel and CC had an association case going. It was a risk I took and we won
Here, it was d1. Hapa was most likely the best player on the scum team. He had thread presence. He was their godfather. It makes no sense to not defend him against a last minute swing if you are scum when it's that close
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And notice who hasn't shown up yet still? SnB.
Btw guys. I'm 90% certain SnB will flip scum. This is all for a "break in case of emergency" glass case in case he isn't
SnB must be lynched today based on his play so far
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Guys, I have done more research about the C9++ setup (Keir confirmed me that he used the same "T's" to get the mafia roles) and it turned out that I was wrong. First of all, a goon, goon, GF team cannot exist and the mafia team can only guess the number of power roles but not their specificity with the data they have at their disposition (i.e. the composition of the team).
I've eliminated the possible "bad guys" setup that we can face with one goon and one GF already dead.
Scum Roles
TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer -- probability < 1%
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer -- probability around 16,5%
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather -- probability around 16,5%
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer -- probability around 5,5%
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather -- probability < 1%
To sum up, it is quite likely that we have still a role blocker or a SK in this game, 3 times more likely than to have both of them.
I didn't realize that it was possible to have only 2 mafia players but if we have one, it's a role blocker for sure. We have roughly 57% chances to have a mafia role blocker against 43% to not have one.
So, my conclusion is that, if BH is fakeclaiming, there was no way for him to know if the fakeclaim was "safe" or not. I was wrong on this point. His claim is not reasonable from a town point of view but even less than from a scum point of view. I'll try to get the probabilities to have a jailkeeper with us in the different configurations.
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On November 17 2012 03:54 Djodref wrote:
Guys, I have done more research about the C9++ setup (Keir confirmed me that he used the same "T's" to get the mafia roles) and it turned out that I was wrong. First of all, a goon, goon, GF team cannot exist and the mafia team can only guess the number of power roles but not their specificity with the data they have at their disposition (i.e. the composition of the team).
I've eliminated the possible "bad guys" setup that we can face with one goon and one GF already dead.
Scum Roles
TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer -- probability < 1% -> in that case, no JK
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer -- probability around 16,5% -> in that case, 19% chances of a JK
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather -- probability around 16,5% -> in that case, 40% chances of a JK
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer -- probability around 5,5% -> in that case, 46% chances of a JK
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather -- probability < 1% -> in that case, 52% chances of a JK
To sum up, it is quite likely that we have still a role blocker or a SK in this game, 3 times more likely than to have both of them.
I didn't realize that it was possible to have only 2 mafia players but if we have one, it's a role blocker for sure. We have roughly 57% chances to have a mafia role blocker against 43% to not have one.
So, my conclusion is that, if BH is fakeclaiming, there was no way for him to know if the fakeclaim was "safe" or not. I was wrong on this point. His claim is not reasonable from a town point of view but even less than from a scum point of view. I'll try to get the probabilities to have a jailkeeper with us in the different configurations.
I've added the probabilities for a jailkeeper in the possible different setups that we have.
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djo can you take a very close look at S&B filter and tell me what you think. You said you didnt take a real close look before but i am curious to see what you think.
Also pay special notice to the "VT" claim post and the reactions around it if you would be so kind.
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So, if BH is the third scum, he is the role blocker and he was basically exposing himself to a rightful counterclaim from a possible JK at 42%...
It's quite a risk to take. I still don't like BH play at all but I understand better why we shouldn't lynch him today. I hope someone else find the setup speculation interesting ^^
## Unvote
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Blazinghand
United States25562 Posts
Well, I can't say I care for setup speculation at all but hey, it's all good if it means djodref will contribute in ways other than trying to lynch me.
I'm sitting down and re-reading D1 now to get an associative case. S&B is being lynched and is probably flipping scum, but we should play as though he's gonna flip town in terms of continuing to analyze. Being caught flat-footed after a town flip would suck, and if he flips scum yeah we wasted some time but better safe than sorry.
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On November 17 2012 04:16 iamperfection wrote:
djo can you take a very close look at S&B filter and tell me what you think. You said you didn't take a real close look before but i am curious to see what you think.
Also pay special notice to the "VT" claim post and the reactions around it if you would be so kind.
@ iamp
I think everybody valued the following post too much. It's not possible for me to say it was a genuine townslip or something done on purpose. I can see this kind of thing done by both alignments and it cannot really be used against him because he doesn't looked forced in my eyes.
After that, the rest of his filter contains too much fluff and not enough contents for my taste. I'll come back with a case against him tomorrow if you don't mind because it's almost 5am here and I need to get some sleep
On November 13 2012 10:02 strongandbig wrote:
also fuck you zboson i wanted to fakeclaim miller as vt since then people couldn't say "oh he's fakeclaiming miller must mean he's scum" when i fakeclaim miller as scum
but now if i did that people would be like "two millers what are the odds" and then probably lynch you so no good on that one
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I find it funny how snb made the claim, and his only scumhunting contribution rule was saying kenpachi rule on me and (zbo?), even though he said he didn't mean to claim.
Anyways will be back in a few hours
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On November 17 2012 05:06 debears wrote:
I find it funny how snb made the claim, and his only scumhunting contribution rule was saying kenpachi rule on me and (zbo?), even though he said he didn't mean to claim.
Anyways will be back in a few hours
lies and slander
even though I wasn't trying, I still did more scumhunting than this
i.e: check all my posts on blazinghand
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Anyway yeah people I'm back.
So here's God's honest truth: I didn't give a fuck day 1. Mostly because my last game was super-try-hard-ey; I had to think and double-think everything I said that game. I didn't really feel like putting all that much mental energy into mafia for a couple of days.
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nobody do anything. don't blink. don't move. just watch.
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Now, it looks like the "cases" on me (such as they are) mostly boil down to "lol kill the troll." That's scum doing your thinking for you.
Scum don't sit there and troll and hope they win; or if they do, they are morons and will lose. Scum try to look like they're helping town; they try to look pro-town without actually being pro-town, or sometimes they actually do try and play pro-town but just do so in a way that doesn't aim town at their teammates. But scum don't sit there and post "lol lol," unless they've established for themselves a character in other games that they think will allow them to get away with posting "lol lol".
Other than "he's a troll let's kill him with fire so he can't regenerate hit points," there seem to be two arguments in favor of lynching me: that I haven't done much to help town except sit here and troll; and, alternatively, that I've been posting the way I have as part of an elaborate plot to play "outside my scum meta"
The "he hasn't been helping town" argument is stupid as an argument for why to kill me. You don't want to kill people who aren't helping town, unless you think they are scum. Wasting your kill on a townie who's not trying hurts town way more than that townie ever did.
"He hasn't been helping town" is also stupid as an argument for why I'm scum. I haven't been pretending to help town without actually doing it, which is what scum do. What I've been doing is posting my honest unfiltered thoughts for the thread. Scum don't do that. It's too easy to fuck up and get caught, through inconsistency, through letting loose extra information, or just through generally revealing their mindset.
Scum don't sit around and just kind of grumple around in the thread. Scum will either try to follow the thread or to mislead the thread, and I was not doing either of those. Like half my posts were expressing my very real suspicions of BH, even though no one was really listening to me.
Now, let's look at the other argument - "he's posting like this because of his 'scum meta'."
First, this argument is wrong, for a couple of reasons. If I was really trying to "go against my scum meta" by consciously manipulating my posting, I would be trying to emulate my "town meta" rather than "just posting whatever the fuck I feel like." There may or may not be a difference between my "town meta" and my "scum meta". That difference is plain if you just look at the last scum game I played. However, the difference isn't "when I'm town I troll and when I'm scum I tryhard." I can tryhard plenty as town too; my town games have had a variety of different posting styles and argumentative styles. It would be way easier for me to fit within that spectrum if I was doing this to avoid being caught by a meta case.
There's one other reason why this argument is bad. It relies on the implicit assumption that I'm functionally retarded.
For me to think that "posting nothing but non-grammatical insults and generally make myself look like a huge troll who doesn't care" is the proper reaction to hearing "your posts tend to feel more constructed when you're scum" would be ridiculous. If my primary motivation really was "avoid being caught on a meta case," there are other ways of playing that would have been both (A) far more effective, and (B) much easier to fake than what I did on day 1 of this game. Like, in my two recent scum games, I've "done nothing but sheep other people's cases and try to blend in" and "try to be a town leader by claiming blue really early and pushing cases really hard and shit." There's a whole spectrum of room between those two that I could have hidden in.
If you really believe that I'm scum because my posts were "intentionally constructed to seem off-the-cuff and poorly thought out", then you have to also believe that I'm stupid.
I'm not stupid.
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EPT
