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Godamn it, I'm having such a hard time making reads on them.
vaderseven
v7's play is extremely lynch-worthy. For some reason, he is only posting via his phone, and that's why his posts feel disconnected from the thread. I don't understand this, however, makes little sense why he wouldn't post from his computer at all, both from a scum and from a town perspective.
However, he banks himself on experience, says he's playing a bunch of games. The general tone of his posts during the game are much different from the pre game one. Compare:
On October 20 2012 12:01 vaderseven wrote:I have played over 50 forum games of mafia over the past 10 years... on SomethingAwful.net, TL, solidstatesquad, aaroninjapan, ddrstl, and a few other places. I am pretty much the best mafia player to ever walk the planet minus my efforts in GSL I. Policy lynch for a hammer is so situational I don't understand why you would think its a good call from the get go to just declare it. I think a better idea is to make it clear that if you hammer someone you WILL be held responsible for doing so. A hammer is NOT just some other random vote.
To:
On October 22 2012 10:00 vaderseven wrote:
Uh ok the case on me is retarded. There is no case. I havent contributed is being tossed around as a phrase instead hasnt posted much. Someone said me posting my first post of the game in a joking sense was scummy. I am fairly sure at least one scum is voti.g me....
Reread me from any game on this forum and you will note huge day 1 waiting by me followed by a huge ramp up in eagerness to post. I always feel in the dark day 1 and the added info every day adds makes me confident in posting. I dont know what else you guys want me to add.... i dont believe in meta so i am not gonna be likehat guy posted this knd of joke so hes scum... t
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Extremely big change. Why is he only posting from his phone? Why would he join the game if he's on 14-hours work days?
Doesn't really make much sense. He could be faking his meta or something like that, for whatever reason.
I just can't understand him...
Drazak
There are a couple of interesting things I find about drazak's filter. Also has a lot of WTF?! Anyways:
His first post striked me as weird:
On October 20 2012 09:27 drazak wrote:
Of course Hapa, plenty of free time as far as I know, should be posting a bunch. Also a little less afraid to post for various reasons.
I wonder what "various reasons" are those? Is he trying to hint something here?
I noticed that from a lot of posts, Drazak talks VERY frequently in terms of what townies would and would not do. Examples:
+ Show Spoiler +On October 20 2012 10:14 drazak wrote:
Why would scum be afraid of casting a vote? If voting and being active is "town" then casting votes would be the most "town" thing you could do. Nervous town are far more likely to not want to early vote because they might not be sure if it makes them look mafia or not. I'm nervous town.
@iamperfection
As far as what makes me tick? Not sure what you want me to say, I'm a fairly inexperience forum mafia player, I'd like to think I'm not that bad but I'm still pretty nervous about certain things. I watched the last gsl game in despair because of how inactive it was, so I'm trying to be more active than I've ever been. Best flavor of mafia games (IMO) with a gerrible terrible game 2 of the series.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 20 2012 10:25 drazak wrote:
Just giving my thought process on it, while it may not be WIFOM, it's how I thought of it after the fact (and why I was hesitating on voting in the first place). I don't think Mafia have any need to bandwagon votes in an instant lynch game, could be wrong, but it seems somewhat ineffective as nobody will hammer it if there isn't sufficient reason, and if mafia does hammer it it's going to make them look pretty scummy. Voting also causes conversation, which mafia is likely to be somewhat adverse to for having less chance to scumslip. Just my thoughts on how it works with this scenario, obviously mafia have to make some votes.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 21 2012 13:45 drazak wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2012 13:31 Hapahauli wrote:On October 21 2012 13:28 Keirathi wrote:
I don't really like Draz's explanation either.
...
Second, putting pressure isn't scummy either. But, you're not actually putting pressure on him. You just parked a vote there and haven't done anything with it. THAT is scummy. What is the point of your vote right now? Ooooh I like that point. Interested to see what Draz has to say about this. There obviously is pressure on DP, he's been antsy about the vote ever since. He also thinks to think that it would fit scum motives to leave a vote on him? Haven't figured out how that works yet. You're all discussing things, and a lot of the discussion has its root cause in my vote on DP, so I'd say it's done a job well served. ##unvote DarthPunkAs far as what I said, it was brought up several times that being flip-floppy or wishy-washy is something that new scum does. We're all trying to establish town cred right now, that's all of our goals, if I was to do anything wishy-washy or flip-floppy, would I be helping myself (As town, or mafia)? I don't think I would be, but I did generate a fair amount of conversation.
I'd like to point out the third spoiler post, the bolded part. Really weird. Scum love to mention how they are contributing to discussion. He also makes these kind of posts in hisNewbie game, so I don't know too much about this.
However, in that game, he was much more aggressive, as you guys can observe:
On September 19 2012 03:23 drazak wrote:
I like how people keep saying they need to hear more form me when I basically said my posting schedule for today, kind of cracks me up and makes me wonder if people are actually reading others posts, or just skimming them.
So, the first thing I'd like to bring up is that Killingtime said that he doesn't think FoS is good on day one.
So killingtime, how would you get information d1? Would you just lurk in the shadows and look for someone slip up on their own without bring pressured? FOS forces someone to be pressured into giving an answer, the same as voting for someone. If you don't FOS or vote for people oN D!, you're not doing anything to advance town's agenda. So basically what I'm getting at is:
##FOS Killingtime
Hey diude, what're your top 2 scum picks? Who are your top two town reads? Do you have anyone you'd like to look at more?
As far as looking at Debears goes, I think it's a dead end, I'd definitely like to see his response, but I don't think your reasoning was very good kush, you yourself have show how saying something would look from each perspecting, which is exactly what Debears was doing. IN addition, it's an examination of motives, which is important, everyone has a motive.
I don't really have any questions or other comments, I'll let you know if I do. If I missed some questions aimed at me, let me know, I wish there was a better way to look at a filter of posts that mention me, you know?
Now what's really interesting is the bolded part. He views votes and FOSes as a good way to pressure people. However, in this game, he displayed an immense insecurity for making his vote.
Now, I don't really know how strong of a tell this is, because he's not in a newbie game anymore, and under different circumstances. I am still finding a bit of a mismatch between his filter this game, and his filter in the townie game.
It also concerns me how inactive he is, compared to what he told hapa. He said he would have been much more active this game, that he had more free time. Not too sure on him.
So these are my thoughts on these two players.
tl;dr
- v7's play is outright confusing. I'm getting an impression that he might be faking his meta to seem like a poor little townie. He's a liability and I support his lynch. Before I lay down the hammer, though, I want to see what you guys think of what I uncovered on drazak.
- Drazak - after some reading on him, I've found some inconsistencies. His filter is filled with WTF. He is less aggressive than he was in his newbie game. Is not posting much, despite saying he was going to. Made some really really confusing defenses on iamperfection and on hapa, something I can still not make out. I want to see what people think about it, as I am unsure of the slight scum read I'm getting off of him.
@Drazak, I also want you to mention the specific part on where you include "for other various reasons". What reasons are these?
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Ah, fuck. I'll just kill him, I really can't make out his play, and I'm also fed up with how long he had to prove himself useful. Makes so little sense from a town perspective. I went through his filter again, trying to pin him down as town, but found myself unable to. Ergo,
##Vote vaderseven
Good-bye, friend.
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Well, well, you are quick to pounce.
I found the probability of him lying greater than the one of him telling the truth and playing like he is. He's had forever to contribute.
99.99% you say?
I think you just very well claimed scum here really. Even if I was scum, a townie wouldn't have so much certainty on that fact with my filter, especially with the entirety of your case solely residing on my stance of v7. You are just fake-tunneling hard now, my friend.
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Btw,
On October 20 2012 11:52 Keirathi wrote:There's nothing to respond to. Common sense should tell you that if someone makes a dumb hammer that you should look into them. I don't know why you felt the need to specifically talk about it. Also, its not like there's a specific metric for how "dumb" a hammer is anyways. Its just a judgment call by everyone in the game. If that time comes, we can discuss it then.
Interesting idea of discussion:
I don't think there's anything he could say that could convince me otherwise at this point, and I will push him with everything I've got.
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He was definitely posting from his cell phone. I can't see why he wouldn't post from his computer if he was home though.
What fucking reasoning did you want me to give? I didn't feel the need to iterate what everyone said. Seriously, bug off with this. Guy was looking extremely scummy and I agreed with the cases on him.
In this instance, I simply read through his filter for a freaking long time, and decided that his posts were unconvincing. Felt like he was purposefully not posting from his computer so as to justify his in-activeness. He had a fuckton of hours to make real contributions and I felt that the ones he actually made didn't prove themselves to be that great. He also said he had extensive experience, and his posts didn't seem to support taht fact, adding confirmation to my theory that he was purposefully only posting through his cell phone.
What else do you want me to repeat? I was actually having the feeling someone was going to pounce on me for over-justifying my hammer...
I felt safe about it and went through with it. You think I gave terrible reasoning? Go cry about it.
Also, this is some of the stupidest shit I've seen in this thread:
On October 23 2012 09:38 Keirathi wrote:
EBWOP: if ZB is scum, hammering totally makes sense, no matter how bad it is and how much it puts him in the spotlight. Unless he can convince everyone else of a stronger candidate than himself or v7, which I don't think he could, one of them was probably going to die. Might as well take out the townie, and then let people play WIFOM games of "why would scum make a terrible hammer".
Except I was nowhere near getting lynched. Except drazak was a much easier target, and I actually spent hours going through his filter to try to find in him a better option.
Then I figured that from my reading that I was much much more comfortable with a v7 lynch than a drazak one.
Omg, I can't get over the fact of why in every single game as town I have an apostle who insists for his life I'm scum. So fucking tired of this shit. Go away, shoo.
I actually have to go right now, but I'm really thinking Kei is scum. Not buying his "omg you hammered a townie, ergo you are scum and is trying to WIFOM by cleverly manipulating townies to do it for him!".
Also, I fully stand behind DP's meta case on him:
On October 22 2012 13:10 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2012 12:44 Keirathi wrote:On October 22 2012 12:28 drazak wrote:
ok, from recent times I saw giving a better explaination of my read on vader and my scummiest atm.
V7 disappeared for forever, with no activity, explains it away with work, but if he was going to have work issues like this, why did he accept the invite? At first I voted for him just to get him to talk, tbh there was a vote count between when I started writing the post and when I posted it, I thought there were 2 votes on him, not 3, or I probably wouldn't have voted. When he finally came back, he started claiming that you can't make reads D1? What? 50 games of mafia and you can't make or force reads on D1? Not sure I grok here. Want to see what he says when he wakes up but he's not going to be around for awhile.
I feel like keir is probably a little scummy, he over-reacted a bit when accused, which is ok, but then he says I'm being scummy, and then his next post... defends me? Not sure I understood that, while contradicting yourself is scummy, I'm not sure why you'd do it. You're agressively defensive and then cover all of your over reactions by saying you'll flip out over it, what? You should be home by now, not sure why you think threatening to flip out helps defend your over-reactions, not sure why you'd say that.
First: no, I'm not home yet. Probably. Another hour or so. Second: where did I attack you, then defend you in my next post? You have it backwards: I defended you first, then started attacking you based on your explanations to what the other people were accusing you of. Also, does aggressively defending myself make me scum? If so, why? Why not just a frustrated townie? Explain your thought process, please. It is fucking weird Keir. Last game when pressured as town Show nested quote +On October 04 2012 14:45 Keirathi wrote:On October 04 2012 13:10 DarthPunk wrote:
Keirathi
Super scummy. He came out of the gates really aggressively towards several people. He makes a lot of noise commenting on their anti-town play.
Not several people. Just kush. Because I thought kush was town based on his demeanor, but his voting and play was distinctly anti-town. I spent a lot of time trying to make him see that. But I should have just shut up and let him play stupidly? Okay. On October 04 2012 13:10 DarthPunk wrote:
I would quote more but they are in his filter and there is alot of this. He is not actually contributing. Just criticising the play of others. Not scum hunting just telling people that they are bad/anti-town.
Nothing I can really say about that. It's pretty true. After questioning KJ, I felt comfortable in my scum read of him. So I spent the rest of my time questioning other people and berating kush. On October 04 2012 13:10 DarthPunk wrote:He leaves his vote on KJ despite huge voting activity at deadline and It becomes meaningless. In spite of saying this earlier On October 01 2012 12:27 Keirathi wrote:
EBWOP: For that matter, why do you need to leave your vote parked on someone anyways?
Your vote is your means of pressuring someone and getting a response. If your vote is meaningless all game, no one is going to care about it and feel the need to justify themselves to you. You're basically giving up your only power as a townie for some contrived need of having your vote out. After the lack of scum hunting and his meaningless vote on KJ. What you probably didn't pick up on just by reading my filter (or maybe intentionally misrepresenting?), is the timing of my posts. Go back and look at my last post on day 1. It was 9 hours before the deadline (and 32 hours before my next post). That's because I took an unplanned trip out of town and didn't have internet. My vote might have been meaningless at the end of the day, but when I left it wasn't (KJ had the majority). There was literally nothing I could have done because I didn't have internet access to keep up with the game. On October 04 2012 13:10 DarthPunk wrote:
Couple of things stand out about this vote on marv.
He actually bothers to explain his vote. Even though it is blatantly clear why people would vote for him. He feels the need to explain it anyway.
He expresses displeasure in not being faster to vote for marv. You know who cares about in which order they vote for someone. Scum. That's who.
ToutEstChaos justified his vote too. Why is the fact that I did it scummier than the fact that he did it? Also, the "Damnit, I'm slow" comment was because, when I first read the daypost, no one had commented on the reason Risen had died, nor voted marv yet. So I quoted Risen's death, then started trying to find the post where Risen had said to kill marv when he died. By the time I had finished, Tout had already beat me to the explanation. Basically you're saying that it would have been townier for me to first vote marv, 10 minutes after the day post, with 0 explanation. I don't buy that. It would be like the people who took flak for hopping on Matt without explanation in LVII after his Nosy Neighbor claim. On October 04 2012 13:10 DarthPunk wrote:
I have played with Keir before when he was town. This is not how he started at all. Not even close.
FoS: Keirathi This is reasonable, but a question: have you read my scum game (GSL Open Mini Mafia 1) for reference? I mean, sure I'm aware that I played a reasonably "good" scum game in that, so if I wanted to play differently I could. But would I really go for the extreme opposite end of the spectrum? From "good" scum, to terrible and easily caught? Anyways, I wouldn't blame anyone for wanting to lynch me tomorrow. I lost some of my interest after having to catch up with 24+ hours of two different games. Show nested quote +On October 05 2012 00:13 Keirathi wrote:
The point in making them is for you to do a little research yourself. Seriously. Go look through my scum game. If you still think my mentality is the same, then I deserve the vote, and I'll do whatever I can before I die to clear up my thoughts. Show nested quote +On October 06 2012 03:05 Keirathi wrote:On October 06 2012 01:58 DarthPunk wrote:So after My case Keirathi presented a token defense and has since disappeared. His last post was this. On October 05 2012 00:13 Keirathi wrote:
The point in making them is for you to do a little research yourself. Seriously. Go look through my scum game. If you still think my mentality is the same, then I deserve the vote, and I'll do whatever I can before I die to clear up my thoughts. But I don't see him doing whatever he can right now. And I don't feel his previous scum game somehow clears his play this game. Keirathi 100% does not play like this as town. There's literally no way to refute that. You're 100% right, I've been unmotivated to put much effort into this game since 1) I missed ~30 hours of the day, and 2) we had a confirmed scum. Hell, I would probably vote for me tomorrow in your shoes. And that's not "martyring", its just the truth that I've done nothing to prove my towniness. But, I wasn't lying. I will scour the game and give my thoughts sometime soon. Hopefully before the day post, since I don't have any plans when I get off work this afternoon. Calm, non aggressive, Rational. Town Keir reacting to a case against him. He would appeals to reason rather than emotion. Perhaps this is because he knows he is town and feels that if reason is applied to the case on him it will come undone? Who knows? The point is his reaction to pressure in his previous game as town compared to this one is stark in its differences. Show nested quote +On October 21 2012 01:47 Keirathi wrote:On October 21 2012 01:34 Z-BosoN wrote:Well I got sniped. Anyways, On October 21 2012 01:18 Keirathi wrote:On October 21 2012 00:46 Hapahauli wrote:
Yah I'm a bit surprised at how little Kei has contributed so far. Early D1 caveats of course, but I always had the impression that his town play was very active on the early days.
It was friday night. I went out. I wasn't expecting the game to start yesterday, and I wasn't going to change my plans anyways. Also, that's such a blanket statement (and not even necessarily a true one...I've not been super active early in like half of my games), that has absolutely nothing to do with my alignment. I was "very active" in the early game as scum too. So what was the point of even saying that? On October 20 2012 23:58 Z-BosoN wrote:
Right now I'm more interested in Keirathi. Made this one easy-to-make post, and didn't really stick around, made no other comments. This seems to me like too easy of a post for someone like Keir to make, and doesn't seem genuine.
What the fuck does that even mean? "Someone like Keir"? And also, explain how that post isn't genuine, please. Darth's post, pre-explanation, made absolutely zero sense, and I disagreed with him asking it. Post-explanation, it was still dumb and never going to accomplish what he said his "goal" was, but at least I understand his reasoning now. Anyways, its gameday. I'll be around off and on today, but not sitting at the computer all day. Why the overreaction? I found your post to be an useless agreement that didn't add anything, and your lack of follow-up even more suspicious. The underlined is why I didn't find it to be genuine, given that there were a string of posts after your own which dealt with it. I fully agree that it was dumb, but you left no opinion of it. That's just saying something and drawing no conclusions from it, and even worse, not looking like you want to draw any conclusions. I can be wrong here, but your post to me didn't feel genuine and I think that makes you suspicious. What? I made it perfectly clear what my opinion on it was. It was a bullshit post, and I called it that, and wanted him to explain. I was not, and am not, going to make any decisions about his alignment based on that. He at least provided a plausible explanation, even if it does feel a little "made up after-the-fact" because someone called him out on it. I don't think it makes him scummy, nor do I think it makes him town. What, exactly, is the point of saying "Yea, he's still neutral"? Show nested quote +On October 22 2012 06:28 Keirathi wrote:On October 22 2012 05:13 austinmcc wrote:Keirathi then pops in to comment on v7's post: On October 20 2012 12:19 Keirathi wrote:
I completely agree with vader here.
I mean, DP, what if Draz is a blue. What do you expect him to say? Of course he's not going to claim a blue role (I hope), a few hours into day 1. So, he claims Progamer. Then he gets close to lynch, and says "Okay, I'm actually Nestea. Don't lynch me!". What are you going to do, lynch him because he lied and said he was progamer 3 hours into the game?
I call bullshit. You know that everyone is going to claim progamer just the same as everyone is going to claim green.
There were many acceptable replies iamp's accusation. Yours was not one of them. He's much more forceful in what he's saying. "I call bullshit" "There were many acceptable replies...yours was not one of them." Actually keirathi's response is also interesting to me. iamperfection votes DP, for reasons keirathi seems to agree with. Keirathi calls DP's response bullshit and unacceptable, and...that's it. There's no vote, no FOS, no further comment. "You have given a bullshit/unacceptable response to a vote...carry on." Kind of odd to me. Kei doesn't comment any further. Doesn't follow-up on this. I guess I can respond to this since I'm around for a bit before I have to go sit with my grandpa again. I'm not going to vote for something that I'm not pretty convinced of. His answer to the questioning going on in thread was way more important than what he actually said that I called bullshit on. Also, FOS is a stupid term that I have never nor will ever use. Calling a post bullshit and making a pressure "case" is as close as you'll ever get to seeing an FOS from me. And, about not following up: it was friday night. I went out for the night. Fucking sue me. (And yes, marv, I am being aggressively defensive. If people really want to lynch me for that then I'm going to flip the fuck out.) Threatening, abrasive emotional. This game it seems as if keir would rather people apply emotion rather than reason to the much more minor case against him. Perhaps he has some inherent guilt that would cause him to shy away from the revealing light of analytical reasoning. Whatever there is a stark difference in the manner in which keir has handled the pressure against him this game in comparison to his previous game as town. And it is weird.
His pressure of me here is also extremely exaggerated. Anyways, enough for today. Laters
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Kei, I don't always explain every single thing that comes to my mind, if I think it pointless.
I found it unnecessary to explain v7 the first time around and that's pretty much it.
Don't know why you are seeing it as blatantly "bad".
Dp, so I'm scum because I didn't do what you expected me to do, because you've never seen me sheep?
First of all, that's incredibly weak. It's not like you know me or what the hell is going on through my mind.
Also, when someone's getting lynched, I try to read their filter thinking the exact opposite - thinking that I'm trying to convince myself that the lynch is bad an I should say the opposite. This is why I didn't hammer v7 the first time around, and you can see in my filter I'm clearly puzzled. The second time around, after 72h without any sort of real contribution from him, you and kei are asking why I hammered him?
marv brings up a good point from liquid city, I voted coag for the exact reasons I voted v7. Does it really matter if I'm sheeping or not? I vote who I feel needs the best lynch.
You both are really way off in regards to me. Get your heads straight - I'm not the one solely responsible for v7's lynch and stop treating me as such. It's gonna be a pain if town gets mighty suspicious of the guy doing the hammer vote every single time. You both are saying this is not it, but funnily enough, this states all of iamp's reasoning for voting v7:
As for scum i really like the points that austin brought up about vaderseven. He really talks about himself a lot in his first few posts and not really much at all concerning this game
I wants this sob to talk.
## Vote Vaderseven
If this had been the hammer vote you'd all be all over him, 100%. Get a grip.
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lol kei.
So this:
Nothing about that "case" was vote worthy. I certainly don't fault people for voting for a guy who wasn't posting at all, but those reasons ZB gave feel extremely forced and fake.
Makes me 99.99% scum.
Yea...
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Anyways, I'm really interested at why drazak is inactive. He really has some clearing up to do.
Marv, what do you make of my pre-night post on him? While I was making that case I had trouble drawing any strong conclusions.
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@Kei
Gonna keep quoting this every time now, until you get through your thick head that this makes perfect sense for me being town rather than me being scum:
I found it unnecessary to explain v7 the first time around and that's pretty much it.
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Doesn't make me town. Doesn't make me scum. What was there to talk about? He was an afk lurker who dropped an easy post and left.
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Hapa, it's interesting you mention marv. I was saving it for later, but by elimination, the scum team in my mind is two from the group of:
keir / marv / drazak / iamp
In that order.
I don't want to get too bogged up on marv though, because I really think keir is scum.
Haven't read iamp's filter yet, but it's kei's "strong town read" on him that bothers me. I take it as legit whether keir is scum or town.
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hapa, I thought you wanted to lynch him at lylo? shit just got real. going to evaluate when I get home tomorrow (small trip) but atm I dont want to lynch marv. will read the case more carefully. I agree strongly on how he "seems detached from thread" and I did not like his reaction. the rest ill have to see more carefully. don't hammer him until tomorrow please.
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Allright. Going over through recent events. Skimmed a bit, and have some preliminary thoughts before we get to the good stuff.
Regarding DarthPunk
In light of iamp's suspicions, I'll post my own.
On October 24 2012 10:27 DarthPunk wrote:
Look at that Vote count. Scum are highly unlikely to bus. Look at who is voting for marv off the bat. 2 of the scummiest players IMO. Unless the keir- marv thing was manufactured I don't see keir being buddies with him. nor austin. Maybe ZB. but honestly shit is looking far too easy.
This is one thing he likes to say as scum. There is no way that things right now are looking "too easy", especially when someone like marv is under scrutiny. He says they are looking "too easy" right after a huge destructive case against marv, to which he simply agreed with and started assuming marv is scum.
Anyways, I'm keeping a town read on him, the rest of his filter seems to me like his general townie self. Also, the amount of suspicion he is keeping on me is compatible with what he's actually saying, I don't feel it's going overboard like it was in Liquid City.
@Hapa
Well, this came as a surprise:
On October 24 2012 10:36 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2012 10:33 DarthPunk wrote:
Hapa. Seriously ask yourself. Would Scum bus at this point? and if not who out of the 4 not voting for him is likely to be his buddy?
I had 2 candidates for marvs scum buddy. They both voted for him straight off the bat. I can't see any of the others being buddied with marv aside from ZB who you think is town. We'll cross that road when we get there. I can see anyone being mafia #2 with marv with the exception of Kei. And no I don't think bussing is unreasonable here. I think my case is strong, and I think it's worth it for scum to bus here. However, I don't want to go down that road of analysis until I see marv flip for myself.
Can I have your thoughts on why Kei is your biggest town read?
Gonna read Hapa's case and go through iamperfection.
Quick note on iamp.
He's being really quick to vote. The first day around, he quickly plopped his vote on v7 and let it stay there. Right now, he's done the same with marv. It seems to me like he is dodging the hammer vote, I don't really buy his voting patterns. Granted the amount of pressure I got just because omg I killed a townie, it's natural for scum to want to vote quickly here.
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Another quick note on iamp
Hapas case i think is one of the best i have ever seen and marvs refusal to give reads is just the confirmation in my eyes. Despite what he says he is just stalling for as much time as possible in hopes that something happens. I know bullshit when i see and and his request to wait for tomorrow is bullshit.
What? How is being @2am in the morning and being pissed not a good excuse to go sleep? This seems to me like a pathetic reason he needed to add to go with his vote.
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Allright, giving my current thoughts on Hapa's case, and soon (later today, hopefully) will read the filters and give my general input of the game.
There are some things I agree very strongly. In my laptop, I have some notes on marv, and one of them is "seems detached from the game". I noted this especially during his measly contributions after my mud-slinging with Hapa, and immediately afterwards, when there was a lot going on.
Marv's Lack of Suspicion
This point, however true, I do not find to be inherently scummy. I think this because of two reasons:
1) I have a bunch of town reads myself. This game it is very easy to make town reads, it seems to me. The people who are in it have very distinct town filter from scum filter.
2) If marv is scum, the last thing he wants to say is that multiple people in a 9-player game are town. People generally take a lot of faith into what he says, and really, if he wants to avert suspicion it doesn't come off to me as the smart thing to do. This of course is a double-edged sword. He can also be "buying" town points by giving townies confidence that he knows what's up. But I'm inclined to think the former point.
Also, read this post as carefully as you possibly can and see if it doesn't give sense to it:
+ Show Spoiler +On October 22 2012 05:50 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2012 05:38 austinmcc wrote:On October 22 2012 05:32 marvellosity wrote:On October 22 2012 05:18 austinmcc wrote:
See what happens when I don't explain my full thought process in spoilers! nuh uh sweetie, this is what happens when people don't read and process what's been written properly. In my longish post having read the thread for the first time I said: On October 21 2012 21:03 marvellosity wrote:vaderseven - for lack of content, firstly. But more tellingly for the manner of his posts. He mixes in the cute little posts - "what do you want to know about mes" and the little fun facts about his rolling mafia. In between those posts, though, are sarcastic and patronising posts that are really easy for scum to make because it makes them look like they know what's going on without actually have to contribute anything. Hapa - did you get shot? which is basically what you were saying about the DP situation but worded slightly differently, and it's what I had taken from your posts. Maybe it was easier for me to understand as I'd read similar things from the DP affair as you had. Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaan. What do you make of keirathi's post in the middle of the DP stuff? I'm not exactly sure. A couple of posts later in his filter he explains he was just calling out bullshit and didn't read anything alignment-y from it. But then if that's the case, then the contributions were just pointless and not really contributions. I think Kei is playing pretty scummily - but what gives me pause is in his recent post, he just told town he doesn't really have any reads. Given he's under some pressure, it makes little sense for a scum Kei to do that. But then I find myself going around in stupid little wifom circles. What do you think? I don't have these little niggles about vader, so I'd quite like to hammer him. But we're still going places with discussion so I'm loathe to right now. Z-bo, are you sure that part of your read on Hapa isn't that you're putting him on a pedestal and placing unreasonable expectation from his posting? I'm getting that vibe from what you're posting about him.
Over Consistency
This point has some strength to it. Even though he was dealing with other aspects of the game, his lack of analysis is pretty weird. Games differ from each other, and I can sympathize with v7.
Emotional Detatchment
Now this is VERY strong. Like I said earlier, I had that feeling for quite some time, but didn't invest too much in it yet because ... it's marv, lol. Anyways, your point on Kei was spot on. It is pretty clear the difference in attitude he's had in regards to his emotions.
His vote on v7 came late and... I dunno. Marv is good in recognizing some town tendencies. Every time we talk he always gives some explanation as to why someone so scummy-looking might be town (look at the level of detail he had on his town read on me, when I mentioned "Go away, shoo") The fact that he lynched v7 without giving any sort of attempt on that seems off... I'm kind of just casually strolling by and throwing that out there, but I don't think this argument is worth a turd, but it's just how I feel, don't jump on my nuts about it.
The Insta-lynch Mechanic
This is also reasonable in it's own rights. Those two games show a very big contrast in play. Like you said though, this alone isn't inherently a strong tell, games are always under different circumstances, but it's definitely something to note.
Conclusion
I began to consider marv a possible scum candidate by pure elimination. Like I said earlier, giving town reads this game is pretty hard not to do, and once I removed the people I had slight reads on, the people who remained were:
Kei, marv, Drazal and iamp. If you can convince me why Kei is such a strong town read (be as scummy as you can about that, I really want to know), then that really shortens my top suspects list to three people.
Of course, odds are that at least one of my town reads are extremely off and that I'll need to reevaluate. But for now, I'm sticking with these.
Right now I don't want to lynch marv however, especially due to number 2) of your first (or second? don't want to scroll up  ) point. I kind of feel strongly about this. Let me know what you think of it.
With that, my head is turned towards iamp and drazak. I feel less strongly on drazak, because even after reading his filter I was 10x more confused than I was certain about his alignment. Will turn towards iamp's filter when I have more time later tonight, and post what I think.
My strongest town reads at the moment are Hapa and austinmcc (yea, green, bold, that much. Sue me). In no way can I view them being scum right now with the amount they have been posting and the sincerity of their posts. I'm of course always scared of hapa, but I'll consider him next only if we face-off again in lylo.
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He does kei
On October 24 2012 10:36 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2012 10:33 DarthPunk wrote:
Hapa. Seriously ask yourself. Would Scum bus at this point? and if not who out of the 4 not voting for him is likely to be his buddy?
I had 2 candidates for marvs scum buddy. They both voted for him straight off the bat. I can't see any of the others being buddied with marv aside from ZB who you think is town. We'll cross that road when we get there. I can see anyone being mafia #2 with marv with the exception of Kei. And no I don't think bussing is unreasonable here. I think my case is strong, and I think it's worth it for scum to bus here. However, I don't want to go down that road of analysis until I see marv flip for myself.
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@iamp
I'll look more into DP later. If you really think he's scum, go for it.
@Hapahauli
Thoughts on my thoughts?
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On October 25 2012 04:48 Hapahauli wrote:
That's stupid. =/
Hurry up I'm bored.
While you are at it read my case very carefully and tell me your thoughts.
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EPT
