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On November 01 2012 06:43 debears wrote:
In the first post, you said that scum wouldn't gamble on keeping the sk alive.
Then, in the second you say that scum wouldn't shoot the sk at night.
Then, you say scum would shoot you to keep the Dandel claim in doubt. Wouldn't shooting Rad do the same thing, as shown by your and Nackht's suspicions of Dandel's claim today? Shooting Rad certainly would do that as you so nicely pointed out. I just didn't think they would.
The first post you quote is definitely inconsistent however and I apologize. It was meant to make a potential town Inig actually want to participate(it felt to me like he was convinced the game was unwinnable due to what nackh had been saying) because if he was town and had completely given up, the game would definitely be over.
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On November 01 2012 06:49 nackhtjogger wrote:Show nested quote +On November 01 2012 06:37 Alsn wrote:
I've been thinking about the Djod lynch. It seems to me that the main reason he finally got lynched was due to Dandel's role claim. Dandel afterwards was pretty much the only one with any power to stop the Djod lynch.
With that in mind, I thought about what reasons he could have for role claiming. If he's town, the story is pretty straight forward, he's been telling the truth and all we need to know is in his filter.
If he's scum however, what could the possible motivations for him to cause a lynch on Djod be? I'm going to assume that a scum Dandel would want to avoid attention if possible so role claiming seems like a risky thing to do. However, having four votes could theoretically cause a scum Dandel to be forced to role claim in order to avoid being lynched himself.
Now, the important thing here is obviously who were voting for Dandel. If one or more of the votes against him were scum votes, there was little to no risk that he would be lynched. So in any scenario where Dandel actually was scum and felt the need to role claim to save himself, the votes against him would likely to all have been town votes, or at most a single scum vote. Yes, I realise that would mean I'm arguing for my own towniness, but if it makes you feel better when reading this then just assume that I was the scum in that case.
I believe this to be almost guaranteed to be true simply because if Dandel hadn't role claimed, the main culprits of the Djod lynch would likely have been debears, Cheese or Dandel. This means that if none out of debears/cheese are scum, that not only would a scum Dandel not have had to role claim(since Djod was likely to be lynched anyway if two town were voting for him) the blame in such a case would have been shared by two town and Dandel, a very good situation for scum I'd say.
So in essence I'd say that Dandel should only be scum if Cheese and/or debears are his scum buddies, because if one or both of them are town, a scum Dandel would likely not have claimed. Seeing as Dandel actually seemed to want to vote for Cheese at one point he's either a good actor, or he's confident enough as scum to bus his scum buddy 15 minutes before lynch(that latter part seems extremely unlikely to me).
I've tried to see if there are any flaws with this argument, but I guess I'll just ask outright. Considering you do seem to have a knack for actually analysing stuff with an open mind, at the very least I'd like to hear what you have to say about it nackh.
Oh and everyone else too, I'm starting to feel like this is some weird reading of an epic dramatic dialogue at this point. Holy Shit! I don't understand what you're saying. Rereading... Sorry, it might have ended up a bit convoluted. At first I thought the argument would be much shorter.
To summarize, scum Dandel would mean:
- The people pegged as responsible for the lynch on Djod would have ended up as Cheese, debears, Dandel no matter what. Dandel claiming means he took the spotlight ahead of all of them. Soo...
- He must have claimed because he was afraid Djod wasn't necessarily going to be lynched.
- The only way scum Dandel could have been afraid that Djod wasn't getting lynched, was if there weren't any or at most one townie voting for Djod(since if there were more, he could always count on his scum buddies helping him).
I'd argue that because of these points, the only way Dandel is scum is if the voters on Djod at the time he claimed were all or mostly scum. That would mean a scum team of Dandel, Cheese and debears, possibly subbing out one of the latter two for someone else.
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Did TL just go dark for a while for anyone else?
I just realised I'm still voting for you nackh. Not sure how much that is helping the thread at the moment, especially since I'm not particularly sure as to who's scum right now. You seem to be the only one right now even caring in the slightest about the game other than myself.
##Unvote
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On November 01 2012 07:09 nackhtjogger wrote:
Well,yeah but I didn't consider who was possibly bussing who. I thought it was an interesting post depicting Inig bullying Djo into claiming and this had the following result:
Scum bullied Djo with their interrogation about SK so at one point Djo said:
So he goes from a light scumread on me to a very strong SK read. His reasons for me being SK are poor, and I think he was convinced like this because he has extra information.
Anyway, he is convinced that I'm SK, which is false by the way.
..which probably convinced scum that he's not SK. He's talking about Dandel here btw.
We can assume that a Djo lynch has become less valuable from this point onward.
So if I understand you correctly, you're now thinking bullying Djod for SK information is a scum trait, which would incriminate Cheese, Dandel and Inig? That seems like quite a stretch to me. Why would all three scum be participating in the exact same discussion taking the exact same position?
To your last point, I see the logic in bullying Djod into claiming vigi instead of simply saying "I'm not SK". I can also see how that would make him less of a priority since I definitely agree that scum would be pretty focused on finding a potential SK after seeing 2 NKs. I don't however see how that must mean that they in fact were bullying Djod for information. It's entirely possible that Djod starting to speculate about night kills made townies suspect him of having extra information. In fact, that's what I've been saying all along with regards to Dandel vs Cheese claiming such drastically different conclusions about Djod(scum or SK).
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To clarify my first paragraph: Seeing as Cheese kept mentioning SK and only after Rad had claimed vigi said he meant "only 5% chance of SK" means that he was a part of the bullying too, only attempting to disguise it? So the bullying would have been done by all three of them?
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On November 01 2012 07:56 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On November 01 2012 07:00 Alsn wrote:On November 01 2012 06:43 debears wrote:
In the first post, you said that scum wouldn't gamble on keeping the sk alive.
Then, in the second you say that scum wouldn't shoot the sk at night.
Then, you say scum would shoot you to keep the Dandel claim in doubt. Wouldn't shooting Rad do the same thing, as shown by your and Nackht's suspicions of Dandel's claim today? Shooting Rad certainly would do that as you so nicely pointed out. I just didn't think they would.The first post you quote is definitely inconsistent however and I apologize. It was meant to make a potential town Inig actually want to participate(it felt to me like he was convinced the game was unwinnable due to what nackh had been saying) because if he was town and had completely given up, the game would definitely be over. I still don't understand why scum wouldn't shoot a guy who was either vig or SK. Rad's claimed was not doubted by any of us last time I checked, unless he would be SK, which an extra nk would point out to us. So, in other words, Rad was a threat to mafia as 1) A confirmed town or if not 2) A SK who's priority would be killing mafia I thought I made myself pretty clear that I'd convinced myself they wouldn't shoot him because of one extra life since it would make today's lynch harder for them. At that point I figured they'd wait until they could just lynch him with a scum majority(if he was SK). I didn't actually consider the possibility that they thought he was such a bit threat that they'dwant to gamble on shooting him anyway hoping he was vigi or had picked cop immunity. And like I said, I didn't even know the possibility of roleblocking the immunity existed.
I thought having a "no-kill" would be so risky for mafia that they just wouldn't dare and play it safe instead.
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Looking back at it now, I think I probably didn't think through my reasoning well enough. I was feeling pretty rushed at the time because I had originally thought that my Rad theory was brilliant and would surely be a good way to expose Dandel. Not thinking about it long enough then meant that as I was typing the post up about an hour before the day post I realised they wouldn't necessarily even go for Rad due to the argument I was making. Due to that, I hurriedly made a different kind of post fearing that I might get killed and my last post would be useless Rad-speculation.
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I need to sleep soon, but I'll stay here for a while after this post in case anyone wants to know something. I'm seriously hoping that I will have more than one person to talk to tomorrow cause if not, I have no idea what more I can possibly do.
Right now I feel like my only real choice is to vote for someone who would give town a stronger position the next day. Given that I'm not sure enough on anyone else, the only reasonable argument I can make at this point is that in the case that Roco is town, his unwillingness to even post means that I can't count on him doing the right thing even if I do figure out who the scum really are. In the only other case(that he's scum) then yea, we bought ourselves another day.
Unless someone has a damn good reason for why they want someone else lynched, I'll consider not voting Roco at this point to be a pretty damn anti-town move.
##Vote Roco69
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And sorry about not counting you as "someone to talk to" debears but quite frankly I've had exactly one person to talk to for the almost 12 hours that I've been home so far today.
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On November 01 2012 08:17 nackhtjogger wrote:Show nested quote +On November 01 2012 07:41 Alsn wrote:
To your last point, I see the logic in bullying Djod into claiming vigi instead of simply saying "I'm not SK". I can also see how that would make him less of a priority since I definitely agree that scum would be pretty focused on finding a potential SK after seeing 2 NKs. I don't however see how that must mean that they in fact were bullying Djod for information. It's entirely possible that Djod starting to speculate about night kills made townies suspect him of having extra information. In fact, that's what I've been saying all along with regards to Dandel vs Cheese claiming such drastically different conclusions about Djod(scum or SK). I see it the other way around. Djo caught scum's attention specifically because he kept speculating about night kills, which could suggest he's probing for a different kind of information. I don't see why town would pick on it because it was speculation, right? He was too good at it? Doesn't make sense from my perspective. I'd still like to know how you explain that no matter how you slice it, if I am to buy your argument about bullying then at the very least one of your targets you have pegged as scum must be town.
You say there was bullying of Djod for SK information, the people I can find any evidence of doing that were Cheese(who later did claim that he meant he thought Djod was scum, but until Rad claimed vigi that wasn't clear at all), Dandel and then later Inig when he voted Dandel. So three people were supposedly bullying Djod for a vigi claim by alluding to him being SK.
Yet now you say that your FOS against me got juicier? How does that fit into your picture?
Even worse, consider what has happened today so far. No one is even participating in the game except for you and me(and I suppose Dandel tomorrow if he meant what he said about being away for today only). Cheese and debears did have a minor chat yet what debears said wasn't even true. debears stated that he was going to make a big case on Cheese, yet the only thing he has done for the 20 hours following that statement is point out minor(to my eyes anyway) inconsistencies in what I've said so far. If you were town, I'd think you would come to the same conclusion that I have, which is that if no one else is even playing, I need to trust you and you need to trust me and we hope that the remaining town at least reads and votes with us. Sure, that's about the weakest argument for my innocence that I could possibly make, but it's still true.
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Hm, just realised debears did say that he would be making his "longass case on CC" after classes today. Supposing he got home when he started posting earlier then yea, he hasn't technically lied yet.
Even if he later produces his "longass case", for the last 24 hours only three out of seven players has done anything whatsoever.
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Still here for a teensy bit longer. Am I right in interpreting your post as accusing me of "going after afkers", yet agreeing with me that Roco is a logical lynch candidate? That seems a bit odd to me.
I'm assuming your line about my start being "alarming" is with regards to my aggressive stance on Dandel, but I don't understand how the rest of that line fits into that. Get which answers right away?
I think my reasons for suspecting Dandel at the time should be pretty clear, I didn't think there were any good reasons for why my argument wouldn't mean there was a pretty high chance of Dandel actually being scum.
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Oh well, I guess I'll go sleep. I sincerely hope that Inig and Roco show up and that you've actually done some talking to them by the time I wake up.
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Right, so the minute I go sleep, activity completely stops. That's just great.
Inig, assuming you are not scum, at this point town being confused is about the perfect situation for scum, because it will undoubtedly lead to a situation where all the 4 remaining town are not voting for the same person. In a situation like that, as long as scum just consolidates on a townie, they win. There's one exception, and that's a situation where all the town votes are for scum and 3 of the town are on the same scum, unless the 3 scum have consolidated on a town before 3 townies are on one of the scum, they don't win. But I find the odds of that to be very unlikely.
For that reason, I'm going to yet again stress the importance that town needs to vote someone that makes sense. So either we need an extremely good case on someone, something which while I have my suspicions, I cannot possibly support with rock solid evidence at this time. For that reason, I think the only option we have is to hope that Roco is scum and vote him out. Remember, other than the unlikely exception I mentioned above, town needs to all vote on the same person, or scum can vote any town they like and get him lynched. If Roco happens to be town, that means he needs to be voting for a scum, which I'd say is 50/50 at best right now. Combined with the fact that the odds of the remaining three town finding scum is probably far from 100%(looking like more like about 50/50 here as well), if Roco is town we have a considerably worse than 50% chance to lynch scum.
For that reason, if we all consolidate on Roco. If he then actually is scum, tomorrow town will be in a position where we can at the very least expect everyone to participate in the discussion. The only question mark at this time is you Inig, can I expect that you will at least try to play? If not, I'm think either you are scum, or this game has been over for a very long time.
So yea, Roco 2012!
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I'll continue looking at other possible targets, but like I said, unless we can produce a good case against someone(and get three votes before people actually start voting and scum likely consolidating on a town), I expect every town to do their duty of "play to win" and vote Roco.
People really need to start voting or at the very least argue with me(although I'm not wrong this time). It's unacceptable that you are all hiding under your kitchen tables hoping that the game ends.
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Also, I'd like to state for the record that if I didn't see Roco as my only viable option, the actions so far this voting day has me thinking that the scum are debears and Cheese. They are both obviously here in the thread, yet the only thing they've done so far is post minor nit picks or "status updates" giving us next to nothing of real value. The last scum is still a mystery to me, it could be nackh, given his experience, but it could also be Roco, Inig or Dandel, I just don't have a good enough town read on anyone at this point.
The conundrum I'm facing is, how the hell am I to get any one of them lynched even if I did have a massively good case on either of them?
My reasons for thinking debears is scum:
- Wasn't NK'd N1. There are more people who are guilty of this, but sylver was far from the "best townie" at that point. It's still possible that he was blue sniped, but if debears had actually been right about anything as scum D1, I'm thinking he would have been the obvious target.
- Not wanting to lynch da0ud when he had been so outspoken during D1 in fear of being associated with lynching a green.
- Disappearing before the Djod lynch.
- At several points "soft" agreeing with me(my original case on Dandel), now with the Roco lynch. Yet never following through, only leaving it open as an option.
- He hasn't even voted Roco yet, even though he must know at this point that the only way we can get a lynch, is by 3 town being "first" on a target and hoping the last town picks scum.
Cheese I'm not so certain about, but the main points are the following(also check out my older case against him in the spoiler):+ Show Spoiler +On October 31 2012 01:49 Alsn wrote:Ok, working yet again under the theory that Cheese and Dandel are of different alignments, I'm seriously starting consider if Cheese might be the third scum. First of all, I find Cheese' explanation for why he thought Djod was scum and not SK highly suspect. Mostly because he made the clarification for why he thought so after Rad claimed vigi. Secondly, he kept Dandel open as a lynch target as soon as I made my case but he had given no indication whatsoever earlier in the thread that he really thought Dandel was scummy. The one time he actually gives his opinion on Dandel is a post giving Dandel advice that he shouldn't "act" confused. If anything, that's the very definition of scum behaviour, offering friendly advice to players they know to be town. Link here.Then after several posts of actually agreeing that Dandel looks scummy, he goes around and says here that - and I'm paraphrasing - "no wait, actually, I never thought Dandel was all that scummy, only his response to your case!" as well as saying my case sucked because the premise was bad. Yet the only thing my premise even suggested was that I thought Djod acting like a lone scum seemed weird and I looked at other possibilities because of it. Dandel tunnelling kush while in hindsight he probably only meant to do because kush is kush, at the time it was most certainly not a bad argument(and still isn't, but Dandel's other actions look much better for him at this point). Interestingly, the point that this happened at is after several posters had criticised me for WIFOMing about Djod(debears among others) so now Cheese must be feeling that he can't keep the option of lynching Dandel instead of Djod open any longer and tries to shut any non-Djod lynch down. I reckon he probably expected Djod to continue acting scummy but unless he conspired with both Roco and Inig I don't think he could have predicted the day to end like it did. The only thing I'm really questioning at this point is how exactly the pre-lynch chaos fits into all of this if both Roco and Inig are scum. Because then I don't see how Cheese could possibly be scum as unless it's an extremely ballsy bluff it just doesn't fit. I don't think scum were in any position to have to gamble on bluffing at all, getting Djod lynched seems like a pretty good result for scum to me. Basically, right now unless I find someone else that I consider more scummy, I need to decide whether or not I want to take the risk of lynching Inig or Roco(still leaning Roco in that case by the way) or to go with an actual case, because I just don't think a rock solid case can be made against either of them. I sincerely hope that they actually try and participate from this point because otherwise I still don't see how I have any other choice than to lynch one of them.
- His need to pick a target among da0ud and Inig D1. Sure, it's possible that if he had voted Djod scum could have come around and ninjaed, but the fact remains that the one getting lynched(and in danger of being lynched) at that point was a townie. So if anything, the only thing Cheese accomplished was gaining townie points for "being concerned about the Inig vs da0ud choice".
- His insistence that Djod was scum through everything, except his idea that he's "scum or SK", who he later said meant 5% SK. I don't believe that latter claim in the slightest, since at that point Rad had claimed and the only way his case against Djod still made sense then was if he didn't downplay the SK thing right the fuck then.
- His actions so far after the Djod lynch, he seems concerned with, what, exactly? I get the distinct impression that he has spent the vast majority of the time reading this thread and talking to his scum buddies. He's gonna read some filters, well great, Djod was lynched more than 48 hours ago, what have you found?
I'd reaaally like it if Dandel showed up at some point soon, because I'd like to know what he thinks now that I'm not "unfair" with my case against him anymore.
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EBWOP: Remember that my old case was posted at a point when I thought the only possible explanation for Roco/Inig voting like that was that they are scum, I don't actually think that anymore, so just take that old case as a pointer on why I think Cheese is scummy.
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I like it how you bold my opening sentence yet ignore the final one saying: "That being said, starting tomorrow evening my time I'll definitely spend more time than I have so far". I'm busy with IRL during the morning and around noon every day, but I'm at home from early afternoon every day. I don't see how that isn't different than last game where I spent almost every waking hour at my computer.
Sure, I've talked a lot this game in spite of this, but that's mostly because I've had reason to talk to people. Last game I had no idea whatsoever as to who was scum, so I spent the majority of my time reading what people had said. This game I'm finding lots more reason to actually speak to people and ask questions.
Lastly, you voted for Dandel, yes, in this post. Yet I can see no reason that you actually had any intention of ever sticking your vote on him. This is made even more clear by the fact that you wanted him to scum hunt yet the only thing he did was answer questions and repeat himself that he "still thinks Djod is scum". In fact, looking at the end Dandel's post here he definitely seems to fit nackh's profile of bullying.
I still don't know what to make of all this, I'm still not sure why I even bother any more because no one actually seems to want to play. Consolidating 5 hours before lynch sounds like about the most scummy thing I've ever heard. With how active people are being in this game, I'm counting on at most 2-3 people posting around lynch time. Hell, for the five hours leading up to the Djod lynch, there were four of us, two of whom are dead.
Like I said, I'm at a point where Roco is the only fucking choice I have. I'm just stating my feelings on what I think is really going on here(and that's about what they are at this point, feelings, because fuck if I know what's going on in this game).
So yea, maybe nackh is right and I'm just fumbling around in the dark, or maybe nackh is your last scum buddy and has been stringing me along because NO ONE ELSE IS FUCKING TALKING TO ME.
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EBWOP: talking to me any more.
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Also, one last thing. Considering the massive amount of posting both me and nackh did yesterday, I find it absolutely hilarious that both yours and Cheese' only thoughts about our discussions was to conclude that "yea, he's probably UberNinja" and that some of UberNinja's quotes were funny.
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EPT
